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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 26
0

Most Read: Shanghai RAAS Blood Products C and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Haier Group to Buy $1.8B Stake in Shanghai RAAS from Grifols – A New Chapter Begins

Haier Group to Buy $1.8B Stake in Shanghai RAAS from Grifols – A New Chapter Begins

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Geopolitical risks have led to foreign companies planning to withdraw from China.It’s also difficult to allow foreign companies to control China’s core strategic assets.So, Grifols and RAAS’ “breakup” is inevitable.
  • This acquisition is an important milestone in the development of Haier’s big health industry. RAAS’s valuation also has room to rise further after being acquire by Haier due to synergies.
  • In the case of slowing growth in the home appliance market, this is a wise move for Haier.However, potential goodwill impairment in GDS is a risk for Haier/RAAS and investors.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Greenko Energy Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Greenko Energy Holdings

Morning Views Asia: Greenko Energy Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Brilliance China Automotive, Budweiser Brewing APAC , Com7 , Paradise Co Ltd, Miniso, Inter Parfums, YETI Holdings Inc, Express and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • More Hong Kong Stocks Priced For Liquidation
  • Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible
  • Mohegan Gaming’s Inspire Resort to Launch the First Foreigners Only Casino in Korea in 19 Years
  • [Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP
  • IPAR: Scent of Momentum
  • Yeti Holdings Inc (YETI) – Wednesday, Oct 25, 2023
  • EXPR: Snapping the Store; Clearing Out for a New Year; Reiterate Buy Rating, PT

More Hong Kong Stocks Priced For Liquidation

By David Blennerhassett

  • With the Hang Seng Index dipping below the 15,000 mark earlier this week, it’s time to dust off some old school perspective.
  • This insight looks at Benjamin Graham’s Net Nets, (current assets less current liabilities), then subtract any debt not included in current liabilities. More simply, current assets less total liabilities.
  • Graham would conclude these stocks are priced for liquidation.  Stocks discussed include Brilliance China (1114 HK), Ming Yuan (909 HK), Yidu Tech (2158 HK), and A-Living Smart City (3319 HK).

Hong Kong: Where Could Shorts Be Covered?

By Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). 
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
  • There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.

Mohegan Gaming’s Inspire Resort to Launch the First Foreigners Only Casino in Korea in 19 Years

By Douglas Kim

  • On 24 January, Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment announced that it has received the final approval to open a foreigners-only casino at its Inspire resort complex in Incheon, South Korea.
  • This will become the first new foreigners-only casino in Korea in 19 years. Currently, there are 17 foreigners-only casinos in Korea.
  • The opening of the Inspire Resort in Incheon, Korea will likely have a negative impact on the foreigners only casino operators in Korea including Paradise Co Ltd (034230 KS).

[Miniso Group(MNSO US,BUY,TP US$33)TP Change]:Investor Day Called for Growth on Supply Chain and IP

By Eric Wen

  • We attended Miniso’s Investor Day on January 18-19 and came away positively. Management outlined growth strategy of fostering strong connection with Chinese supply chain to achieve fast turnaround of…
  • We expect MNSO to report C4Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI at 2.9% and 4.0% higher than consensus mainly due to new store openings;
  • We maintain the stock as BUY and raise TP by US$2 to US$33/ADS to reflect our endorsement of the growth strategy.

IPAR: Scent of Momentum

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IPAR closed out 2023 with the same momentum that has been generating sales growth the last several years.
  • The consumer has been receptive to fragrance and there has been no sign of slowing demand for the category
  • IPAR provided preliminary fourth quarter sales of $329 million versus our estimate of $316.5 million. Sales growth within IPAR’s top selling brands was through Coach and Guess

Yeti Holdings Inc (YETI) – Wednesday, Oct 25, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • YETI is recommended as a short investment for the next few years due to its declining growth and loss of ground to competitors like Stanley Tumbler.
  • The sustainability of YETI’s brand advantage is questioned, comparing it to other companies that have failed in the past.
  • The author suggests that YETI may face a similar fate if it does not reverse its current trends.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

EXPR: Snapping the Store; Clearing Out for a New Year; Reiterate Buy Rating, PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Express, but lowering our 4QFY23 projections after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
  • That said, we believe the near term impact will be to reduce gross margins; as such, while we are maintaining our 4Q23 top line projections, we are lowering our gross margin projections, which results in increased 4Q losses.
  • We believe the negative impact will be localized into FY23 and are leaving our FY24 projections unchanged.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Nidec Corp, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Applus Services SA, AP Moeller – Maersk A/S, DX Group PLC, Greenland Technologies Holdi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nidec (6594) | A Mixed Quarter
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
  • Apollo Increases Its Advantage in the Bidding War
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)
  • H.I.G./DX (Group): Spread
  • Greenland Technologies Holding Corp.

Nidec (6594) | A Mixed Quarter

By Mark Chadwick

  • Consolidated net sales increased by +4.4% YoY to ¥594,026 million
  • Operating profit increased by 90% YoY to ¥53,562 million, but were down 3.7% QoQ.
  • Full-Year guidance for OP was revised down by 20% to ¥180,000 million. We remain bullish on long-term structural electrification thesis

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Apollo Increases Its Advantage in the Bidding War

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Apollo has acquired 21.85% of Applus Services SA (APPS SM) from risk arb funds and raised the offer price by 12% to €10.65/share, 9% above I Squared/TDR’s offer.
  • The competing consortium should counterbid to stay in the game. My fair value estimate is €10.92. The shares are trading at €10.88 in the hope of a counteroffer.
  • If you have not been holding the shares since the outset (I have been positive about the shares since May), I would probably weight the risk/reward before getting involved.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022
  • Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth
  • Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming

H.I.G./DX (Group): Spread

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 9 January, the Scheme was approved at the Court Meeting, and the resolution to implement it was approved at the GM. Court sanction will take place on 25 January.
  • Settlement should take place by 12 February. Several risk arbs have been jumping on this deal, in spite of the low liquidity. 
  • A done deal. Gross spread is 0.42%, while the annualised return is 8.81%. Reiterate BUY.

Greenland Technologies Holding Corp.

By Water Tower Research

  • HEVI announced the addition of Amerit Fleet Solutions as an Authorized Service Provider to support the company’s electric powered heavy industrial equipment.
  • Amerit Fleet Solutions, which has more than 800 locations nationwide, joins Mid-Atlantic-focused Quality Truck Center as the second multi- location service company that has partnered with HEVI to support customers with its equipment.
  • The addition of another service provider should help boost the growth of HEVI’s products. In addition to expanding awareness of the brand, this should help alleviate any concerns that potential customers might have about supporting and servicing their equipment.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Pan American Silver and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Pan American Silver – Consistent growth at higher costs

Pan American Silver – Consistent growth at higher costs

By Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver (PAAS) provided an update on its FY23 operational performance and FY24 guidance. While total silver production came in below guidance at 20.4Moz and gold output of 883koz was within guidance, the main highlight of the results was the record Q4 gold sales of 270koz (FY23 894koz). FY24 production expectations for gold and silver are broadly in line with FY23 guidance ranges, while costs are seen growing further. Despite our expectations of near-term cost normalisation, industry cost pressures remain visible. We have therefore pared down our valuation of PAAS from US$23.5/share to US$22.0 on more conservative cost forecasts and reduced production projections, which is partly offset by our slightly more favourable commodity price assumptions.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Nidec Corp, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Applus Services SA, AP Moeller – Maersk A/S, DX Group PLC, Greenland Technologies Holdi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nidec (6594) | A Mixed Quarter
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
  • Apollo Increases Its Advantage in the Bidding War
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)
  • H.I.G./DX (Group): Spread
  • Greenland Technologies Holding Corp.

Nidec (6594) | A Mixed Quarter

By Mark Chadwick

  • Consolidated net sales increased by +4.4% YoY to ¥594,026 million
  • Operating profit increased by 90% YoY to ¥53,562 million, but were down 3.7% QoQ.
  • Full-Year guidance for OP was revised down by 20% to ¥180,000 million. We remain bullish on long-term structural electrification thesis

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Apollo Increases Its Advantage in the Bidding War

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Apollo has acquired 21.85% of Applus Services SA (APPS SM) from risk arb funds and raised the offer price by 12% to €10.65/share, 9% above I Squared/TDR’s offer.
  • The competing consortium should counterbid to stay in the game. My fair value estimate is €10.92. The shares are trading at €10.88 in the hope of a counteroffer.
  • If you have not been holding the shares since the outset (I have been positive about the shares since May), I would probably weight the risk/reward before getting involved.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022
  • Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth
  • Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming

H.I.G./DX (Group): Spread

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 9 January, the Scheme was approved at the Court Meeting, and the resolution to implement it was approved at the GM. Court sanction will take place on 25 January.
  • Settlement should take place by 12 February. Several risk arbs have been jumping on this deal, in spite of the low liquidity. 
  • A done deal. Gross spread is 0.42%, while the annualised return is 8.81%. Reiterate BUY.

Greenland Technologies Holding Corp.

By Water Tower Research

  • HEVI announced the addition of Amerit Fleet Solutions as an Authorized Service Provider to support the company’s electric powered heavy industrial equipment.
  • Amerit Fleet Solutions, which has more than 800 locations nationwide, joins Mid-Atlantic-focused Quality Truck Center as the second multi- location service company that has partnered with HEVI to support customers with its equipment.
  • The addition of another service provider should help boost the growth of HEVI’s products. In addition to expanding awareness of the brand, this should help alleviate any concerns that potential customers might have about supporting and servicing their equipment.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Payroll, Jiangsu Hoperun Software, Posco DX, ASE Technology Holding , Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), SurgePays and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Payroll (4489 JP) MBO (¥1,380/Share) By New Japan PE Deal Entrant TA Associates
  • Payroll (4489 JP): TA Associates’ Tender Offer at the IPO Price (JPY1,380)
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Names Increases Flow
  • Posco DX Included in KOSPI 200 IT Sector Index: Exploring Flow Trading Implications
  • ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY
  • [Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: What Does AI Phone Bring to the Tech Competition?
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events
  • SurgePays, Inc. – Wireless Provider Turns Emerging Fintech Platform

Payroll (4489 JP) MBO (¥1,380/Share) By New Japan PE Deal Entrant TA Associates

By Travis Lundy

  • Payroll (4489 JP) today announced that it would go private in a deal led by US PE Firm TA Associates (Japan office led by a former Carlyle person it appears).
  • Payroll IPOed in June 2021 at ¥1,380. Then it fell. Now this takeout is at ¥1,380/share. Not a great look but not egregiously unfair by the looks of it. 
  • This deal is going to get done easily as agreed participants and probable-friendlies get them past the minimum without retail or foreign holders participating.

Payroll (4489 JP): TA Associates’ Tender Offer at the IPO Price (JPY1,380)

By Arun George

  • Payroll (4489 JP) has recommended TA Associates’ sponsored MBO tender offer of JPY1,380 per share, a 42.4% premium to the undisturbed (23 January). 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 61.28% ownership ratio. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.5% minority acceptance rate, which is achievable as the offer is marginally short of the all-time high. 

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Names Increases Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly halfway through the review period, we forecast 7 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
  • Some of the potential changes will also have passive flows from the CSI 500 Index trackers at the same time as the ChiNext Index rebalance.
  • The potential inclusions and deletions have slipped over the last couple of months along with the ChiNext Index, but the potential inclusions have outperformed as the deletions have dropped more.

Posco DX Included in KOSPI 200 IT Sector Index: Exploring Flow Trading Implications

By Sanghyun Park

  • I confirmed that Posco DX will be incorporated into the KOSPI 200 IT Sector Index. The implementation date for this is also scheduled for March 15th.
  • The direct flow size from the KOSPI 200 IT into Posco DX is approximately 0.3x ADTV, implying a noteworthy price impact on March 14th, concentrated from 2:00 PM to close. 
  • When designing Posco DX’s March 14 KOSPI 200 inclusion flow setup, we must also proactively design strategies to capture flows from the KOSPI 200 IT within a narrow time window.

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

By Patrick Liao

[Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: What Does AI Phone Bring to the Tech Competition?

By Eric Wen

  • US-Led tech chain may push for AI phone features, which itself is a great strategy to pull the tech industry out of doldrums. It will pressure Huawei, in our opinion;
  • We believe there are other stories unfolding in the AI era, including availability of AI killer apps, the rivalry between super apps and OS vendors, and the growing China/Ex-China chasm.
  • Our Top Pick is Tencent and Kuaishou. We maintain Xiaomi at SELL.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC’s Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit
  • Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron
  • Key Upcoming Events — Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead

SurgePays, Inc. – Wireless Provider Turns Emerging Fintech Platform

By Water Tower Research

  • We are initiating coverage of SurgePays (SURG), a forward- looking financial technology and telecommunications firm dedicated to serving the underbanked.
  • Its wireless subsidiaries provide mobile broadband, voice, and SMS services to subsidized and direct retail prepaid customers primarily through the US Federal Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP).
  • SURG has built a profitable business in the ACP segment of the wireless market.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai RAAS Blood Products C and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Haier Group to Buy $1.8B Stake in Shanghai RAAS from Grifols – A New Chapter Begins

Haier Group to Buy $1.8B Stake in Shanghai RAAS from Grifols – A New Chapter Begins

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Geopolitical risks have led to foreign companies planning to withdraw from China.It’s also difficult to allow foreign companies to control China’s core strategic assets.So, Grifols and RAAS’ “breakup” is inevitable.
  • This acquisition is an important milestone in the development of Haier’s big health industry. RAAS’s valuation also has room to rise further after being acquire by Haier due to synergies.
  • In the case of slowing growth in the home appliance market, this is a wise move for Haier.However, potential goodwill impairment in GDS is a risk for Haier/RAAS and investors.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Financials: Resona Holdings, Newmark Property REIT, USD, H&T Group Plc, Greentown China, Henderson International Income, Custodian REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank of Japan Meeting Signals– Our Take on the Implications for Japanese Banks
  • Newmark Property REIT (NPR AU): Merger with BWP Trust (BWP AU)
  • US Rates: Polar Vortex Duration Extension
  • H&T Group – Growing pawnbroking core will drive other services
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Greentown China, Reliance Industries
  • Henderson International Income Trust – Buying good companies at attractive valuations
  • Custodian Property Income REIT – Proposed merger

Bank of Japan Meeting Signals– Our Take on the Implications for Japanese Banks

By Victor Galliano

  • In the post meeting press briefing, governor Kazuo Ueda said there was an increasing chance of the BoJ’s 2% inflation target being hit; JGB 10Y yields rose as a result
  • This implies that the BoJ could change from negative interest rate policy in the near future, perhaps as soon as March, which is positive for the Japanese bank sector’s fundamentals
  • We believe that this new will give further impetus to Japanese bank shares, especially those banks that are well geared into rising domestic interest rates; we highlight eight banks

Newmark Property REIT (NPR AU): Merger with BWP Trust (BWP AU)

By Arun George

  • Newmark Property REIT (NPR AU) has disclosed an off-market takeover merger proposal from Bwp Trust (BWP AU) of 0.40 BWP units per NPR unit, implying A$1.39 per NPR unit. 
  • The proposal is conditional on a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, which can be waived or lowered. Irrevocables represent 18.35% of NPR units.
  • The offer is attractive given the weak sector sentiment due to ongoing high-interest rates. At the last close, the gross spread was 2.6%.

US Rates: Polar Vortex Duration Extension

By At Any Rate

  • The bond basis is a significant concern for investors, as the long end of the curve has been steepening and rates are rising, increasing the probability of shifts in the cheapest deliverable (CTD).
  • There are several bonds that are nearly equally cheap, meaning they are not currently the CTD but are close enough to potentially become the CTD. This could impact futures pricing.
  • Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with a strike price of 118. This can mimic a long basis position.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

H&T Group – Growing pawnbroking core will drive other services

By Hardman & Co

  • In our 15 March 2023 initiation, Pawnbroking royalty, with strong, profitable growth, and later notes, we have highlighted the strong market for pawnbroking and why H&T, as the market leader, is uniquely placed to take advantage of these opportunities.
  • Subsequent to the initiation, we had raised our pledge book forecast twice, and we do so again with the latest trading statement.
  • In this note, we explore how pawnbroking growth is a key driver to the retail offering, pawnbroking scrap and gold purchase, with varying degrees of time lag.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Greentown China, Reliance Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Henderson International Income Trust – Buying good companies at attractive valuations

By Edison Investment Research

Henderson International Income Trust (HINT) is meeting its long-term objectives to provide both rising income and capital appreciation. It adopted a more generous dividend policy in 2021 and its 4.7% dividend yield is the highest among its peers. HINT has also delivered average annualised gains of 8.4% in NAV terms over the 10 years ended December 2023. However, the manager’s cautious, balanced stance, which favours value and defensive names and underweights the US, has underperformed recently due to the AI-driven rally in a handful of tech stocks and the improvement in the United States’ economic outlook, which has benefited cyclical names. However, HINT’s manager is using what he believes to be unjustifiably low valuations to add good companies with the capacity to grow dividends, at attractive prices. This includes businesses exposed to structural trends such as decarbonisation and the rapid spread of technology. He expects such acquisitions to outperform as the market comes to fully appreciate their merits.

Custodian Property Income REIT – Proposed merger

By Edison Investment Research

Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) and abrdn Property Income Trust (API) have announced a proposed all-share merger, recommended by both boards. This recommendation reflects the increased diversification of income that the combined company will provide, with potential to benefit from increased scale and share liquidity, and the opportunity for cost savings. The investment strategy will remain income focused, emphasising below institutional-sized regional assets, typically offering a yield premium. The combined portfolio offers 24% reversionary potential.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Greentown China, Reliance Industries

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Greentown China, Reliance Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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