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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA/CPNG/PDD/700 HK/NTES/3690 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA/CPNG/PDD/700 HK/NTES/3690 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY/XPEV/LI/NIO/1211 HK/300750 CH
  • Picking a Benchmark
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended February 2, 2024


[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:BABA/CPNG/PDD/700 HK/NTES/3690 HK

By Ying Pan

  • BABA/CPNG/PDD: AliExpress offering 0% commission to sellers of Korean brand products (+/-/-)
  • 700 HK/NTES:NPPA has released the latest approvals for imported games, and Tencent’s highly anticipated <DNF Mobile> has received approval(+)
  • 3690 HK: Meituan changed organizational structure by consolidating In-store and food delivery business(+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY/XPEV/LI/NIO/1211 HK/300750 CH

By Eric Wen

  • LKNCY: Luckin Coffee further raised subsidy to franchisees in winter season(-)
  • XPEV/LI/NIO/1211 HK:Deliveries of new energy vehicles generally continued to pick up in the last three days of January, except for NIO(+/+/-/+)
  • 300750 CH: EVE’s large cylindrical battery in production, increasing the threat to CATL a little bit(-)

Picking a Benchmark

By Investment Talk

  • As I reflected on my performance in 2023, I was reminded that benchmarking can be a brutal process.
  • But it keeps you humble. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about my chosen benchmark, the S&P 500.
  • I occasionally think as an international investor I should change it.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended February 2, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 1.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.3%).
  • Energy Technology (13.9% of the index) was up by 5.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (54.5% of the index) was up 1.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.4%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 0.1%.
  • Top 10 Performers: EVTV, PLUG, JEV, NXT, VIEW, PGTK, LCID, NAAS, ANRG, ELBM

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: The Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure – KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • The Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure – KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private
  • Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360
  • Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer
  • Red 5/Silver Lake: US$1.5bn Aussie Gold Merger
  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run
  • NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in March
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Here We Go Again
  • Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model
  • Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster


The Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure – KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, just before the close, the Nikkei sprung a headline saying KDDI Corp (9433 JP) would take over Lawson Inc (2651 JP). The stock immediately headed to limit up. 
  • Post-Close, details emerged. KDDI will buy the 50% that MitCorp does not own, this will become a 50/50 JV. TOB launch at ¥10,360 will be in April. Squeezeout in September.
  • This appears to be the Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure. The premium is too light. The price is too low. And that is not counting the synergies.

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

By Arun George

  • Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from KDDI Corp (9433 JP) at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). 
  • The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. 

Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
  • Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.
  • If Elliott’s campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a similar proposal.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that L’Occitane (973 HK) draws takeover interest from Blackstone (BX US), which is considering partnering with Chairman and largest shareholder Reinold Geiger.
  • Blackstone needs an attractive takeover premium due to the presence of significant disinterested shareholders (Mr. Geiger and Acatis KVG).
  • Shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour due to Mr Geiger’s aborted offer on 4 September 2023. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

Red 5/Silver Lake: US$1.5bn Aussie Gold Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Aussie gold miners Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) and Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) have announced a “merger of equals” via a Scheme of Arrangement.
  • Red is offering 3.434 new shares for every SLR share, and will hold ~51.7% of the merged entity, with SLR shareholders holding the remaining 48.3%.
  • This has the unanimous backing of both boards. Yet SLR appears to be given short shrift on the merger ratio. Plus SLR holds ~11.9% of shares out in Red.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the March rebalance complete, there could be 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 13.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 28.6bn. Four inclusions will have over 1x ADV to buy; five deletions will have 2.5x+ ADV to sell.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 28.6% over the last month. With positioning from a rebalance perspective mostly done, gradually unwind over the next few weeks.

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in March

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be one change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 March.
  • Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 12.6% and in a one-way trade of INR 3.7bn.
  • While the deletion is fairly certain, there are a few non-constituents around the same level of volatility and price movements over the next few weeks will determine the inclusion.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Here We Go Again

By David Blennerhassett

  • From 2018 onward, French beauty retailer L’Occitane (973 HK) has apparently drawn interest from the likes of Advent International and its controlling shareholder Chairman Reinold Geiger – amongst others. 
  • There is substance to these “Offers” – Geiger confirmed in August 2023 he was contemplating a conditional voluntary general Offer. He holds 72.65% of shares out according to the HKEx. 
  • The latest news, with no definitive source, is that Blackstone is mulling the possibility of teaming up with Geiger on a buyout.

Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model

By Michael Causton

  • KDDI’s agreement with Lawson and Mitsubishi to make a tender offer for the convenience store chain is a game-changer for what has become a slow growth convenience store sector.
  • There are myriad potential synergies across e-commerce, new store types and also the promising new revenue stream of retail media. Lawson may be worth more than KDDI’s offer suggests.
  • And while Lawson may be behind Seven Eleven and Familymart, on some KPIs, like HQ revenues, it is No. 1 and also matches Seven Eleven on same-store sales.

Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Novartis offers an agreed €68/share, 89% premium, for MorphoSys AG (MOR US) in a bet that pelabrisib could become a blockbuster to treat myelofibrosis (possibly reaching peak sales of $1.1-1.5 billion).
  • Considering that the shares of Morphosys were trading in the low teens in November, I believe that shareholders will be happy to part with the shares.
  • Spread (gross/annualised) is 4.65%/18.09% (assuming settlement by 20 May). Novartis believes pelabrisib is definitely worth the risk. Long.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, Guangzhou R&F Properties, UPL Ltd


Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, Guangzhou R&F Properties, UPL Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying
  • Water Oasis 1161 HK: Gone Ex-Dividend, Trading at 7.5x PE FY24 and an 11% Dividend Yield
  • Intel’s UMC Partnership Is A Big Deal. For UMC.
  • State Bank of India (SBIN) – 3Q24 Update: Short-Term Pressure Is an Opportunity to Accumulate
  • Largest Display Driver Maker in the World’s Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March
  • Novatek (3034.TT): It’s the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.
  • GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing
  • Rent.com.au Ltd – Strong Across the Board Growth in Revenue in Q2
  • Singapore’s Most Defensive High ROE & Low P/E Stocks Over Past Year


Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Shiseido Company (4911 JP) relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. 
  • The long thesis is simple – I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.
  • Blackstone just announced a potential bid for L’Occitane (973 HK), which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE & Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting
  • Largest Display Driver Maker in the World’s Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March
  • TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home

Water Oasis 1161 HK: Gone Ex-Dividend, Trading at 7.5x PE FY24 and an 11% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Water Oasis (1161 HK) just went ex-dividend on 6th Feb and is now trading at a 7.5x PE FY24e and a 10.7% dividend yield on trailing FY23 earnings.  
  • The company has refurbished its flagship stores, and we believe it can perform 8-9% better year over year for FY24 than FY23.
  • The company also has 230 mn HKD net cash (after netting dividends paid out), representing     26% of market capitalization.

Intel’s UMC Partnership Is A Big Deal. For UMC.

By William Keating

  • UMC’s Q423 results in line with expectations. Q124 guidance, down 2-3% QoQ, demonstrates ongoing headwinds for foundry
  • Intel, UMC foundry partnership helps the latter overcome their 14nm issues while giving them bargain basement access to US manufacturing capacity 
  • If Intel could have developed and deployed the proposed 12nm specialty process on their own, they would have….

State Bank of India (SBIN) – 3Q24 Update: Short-Term Pressure Is an Opportunity to Accumulate

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) has reported its 3Q24 (Dec-23) results with a one-off pension and wages revision charge which impacts the short-term earnings profile.
  • Medium-Term ROE Forecast Intact (16% to 18%) with management confident of even touching 20% in next couple of years; loan growth forecast of 14% to 16% for FY25e-FY26e.
  • We reiterate our view: P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e. SBIN has the potential to re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~40% upside). Opportunity to ADD.

Largest Display Driver Maker in the World’s Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Novatek reported over 20% YoY growth for 4Q23 and slightly beat expectations but the latest guidance implies growth to reverse to a sales contraction in the latter part of 1Q24E.
  • Gross and operating margins are guided to contract; nevertheless, inventory dropped to one of the lowest levels since COVID and is expected to remain healthy.
  • Novatek’s latest results appear to signal that while inventory levels are healthy, the demand growth rebound for display drivers that started in June 2023E could lose steam in 1Q24E.

Novatek (3034.TT): It’s the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

By Patrick Liao

  • 4Q23 surpassed the guidance for revenue, GM, and OPM. 4Q23 EPS reached NT$8.76, compared to NT$10.46 in 3Q23 and NT$6.64 in 4Q22.
  • 1Q24F is typically the traditional low season for consumer electronics, and there are fewer working days during the Lunar New Year.
  • It is expected that the dividend payout ratio this year will be similar to previous years, which has been higher than 80% in the past few years.

GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing

By Neil Glynn

  • GOL recently filed for CH11 bankruptcy protection as it was due to run out of readily available cash in mid-February. We assess the ramifications.
  • We highlight that GOL may need to reduce aircraft ownership/financing costs by a third to achieve PBT margins of 5%+; difficult in a strong aircraft leasing market.
  • We see the risk GOL loses scale. However, long-term, an increasingly competitive GOL is good for its parent Abra Group, and sister company Avianca.

Rent.com.au Ltd – Strong Across the Board Growth in Revenue in Q2

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Rent.com.au Limited (ASX:RNT) is a purpose-led company seeking to empower home renters through its technology platform and a growing number of aligned transactional services.
  • The company has reported a 33% year-on-year increase in Q2 FY24 revenue to $0.808m, in what is seasonally the weakest quarter for the group.
  • Search portal revenue grew 11% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) but, not unexpectedly, dropped 7% on Q1 due to seasonal factors. 

Singapore’s Most Defensive High ROE & Low P/E Stocks Over Past Year

By Geoff Howie

  • Just over 40 Singapore-listed stocks that posted price gains over the past year, maintain single-digit P/E ratios and double-digit ROEs.
  • Aside from Singapore Airlines, the most traded stocks of the cohort over the past 5 weeks were Geo Energy Res, Golden Agri, Food Empire, TJ DaRenTang, Valuetronics, Marco Polo Marine, Ley Choon, Bumitama Agri and Stamford Land.
  • Among these stocks, Golden Agri, Food Empire, TJ DaRenTang, Bumitama Agri are currently trading below their Consensus Estimate Target Prices.

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Daily Brief Macro: Four Important EM Elections in 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Four Important EM Elections in 2024
  • Chinese Equity Markets: Wild Ride, But “Xi Briefing” Steals the Show
  • CX Daily: Private Equity in China Heads for Exits Amid Three-Year Stock Slump
  • Great Game – Why Biden goes soft on Iran
  • Reforms to Mergers and Acquisitions Disclosure and Evaluation Requirements in Korea
  • Philippines CPI Inflation 2.8% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Jan-24
  • Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Feb-24
  • Macro Regime Indicator: Time to Embrace a New Economic Dawn?


Four Important EM Elections in 2024

By Alastair Newton

  • Elections in Indonesia and India are expected to maintain policy continuity in terms of the economy.
  • The election outcome in South Africa is likely to result in further deterioration in governance.
  • In Mexico, MORENA is predicted to retain the presidency but may not achieve its target two-thirds majority in the legislature.

Chinese Equity Markets: Wild Ride, But “Xi Briefing” Steals the Show

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Sharp Bond Yield Drop: 10- and 30-year bond yields plunged to their base targets of 2.41% and 2.61%, falling by 3.2 and 5 basis points, respectively.
  • These Base Targets were set in our previous Notes on China.
  • Downside Trigger: The CSI 1000 and ChiNext indices fell sharply due to “Snowball Structures” exceeding their limits, typically triggered when the index drops 20% or more.

CX Daily: Private Equity in China Heads for Exits Amid Three-Year Stock Slump

By Caixin Global

  • PE / Cover Story: Private equity in China heads for exits amid three-year stock slump
  • Military /: China’s top legislature confirms ousted military officials violated ‘discipline and law’

  • PMI /: China services activity maintains growth, but at slower pace, Caixin PMI shows


Great Game – Why Biden goes soft on Iran

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Welcome to this week’s Great Game! This week we attempt to add some nuance and layers to the understanding of the US-Iran conflict while adding my two cents to the ongoing oil debate.
  • Main points of the week: as predicted last week, the US retaliated quite softly against Iranian attacks and both sides seem content with the current level of escalation.
  • The risk of war is over.

Reforms to Mergers and Acquisitions Disclosure and Evaluation Requirements in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • On 6 February, FSC announced numerous changes to the M&A disclosure and evaluation requirements in Korea. 
  • These measures are aimed at strengthening investor protection benchmarking global standards. The Korean financial authorities will start to implement these changes in 3Q 2024. 
  • The method for calculating merger prices in M&As between non-affiliated companies will be upgraded. To guarantee fairness in merger prices, a third-party review will be mandatory.

Philippines CPI Inflation 2.8% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Jan-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Philippines CPI inflation in January 2024 decreased by 1.1 percentage points, reaching 2.8%, which is 0.3pp below the predicted 3.1%.
  • About one-third of this decrease was in the core inflation, which declined by 0.6pp.
  • The core inflation rate stood at 3.8% year-on-year.
This insight is AI generated from publicly available sources.

Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Feb-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The RBA’s decision to hold the policy rate steady at 4.35% reflects its cautious approach in light of moderating inflation, particularly in the goods sector, against persistent services inflation and high domestic cost pressures.
  • Economic outlook uncertainties, including global risks, domestic demand dynamics, and labour market tightness, influence the RBA’s policy deliberations, with a continued focus on returning inflation to the target range in a balanced and data-driven manner.
  • The RBA emphasizes the priority of inflation targeting within its mandate, indicating that while recent trends show inflation easing, the potential for further interest rate hikes persists, contingent on incoming data and a rigorous assessment of evolving risks.
This insight is AI generated from publicly available sources.

Macro Regime Indicator: Time to Embrace a New Economic Dawn?

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

  • The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments.
  • As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth, moderating inflation, and evolving liquidity dynamics, investors and policymakers alike stand at a crossroads.
  • This month’s ‘Macro Regime Indicator’ questions the endurance of the current (US) economic strength and its implications for inflation and asset allocation.

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Daily Brief Financials: Mitsui Fudosan, HKEX, HashKey Digital Asset Group Lt, Industrivarden AB, EML Payments Limited, Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)
  • Hong Kong Exchanges – Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation
  • HashKey Group secures US$100M in Series A financing, turns unicorn | e27
  • Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount
  • EML Payments – Major source of losses stemmed
  • Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)

By Travis Lundy

  • The FT carries an article this AM saying Elliott Management have built a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and has asked it to undertake measures to increase ROE.
  • Measures requested apparently include a very large buyback and a demand the company sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP). The article is worth reading.  
  • Shares are up sharply on this news. The fund was in the news last year about this time regarding Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP). I’d expect more noise to come. 

Hong Kong Exchanges – Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Even the company itself shows in its recent presentation that a substantial portion of its revenue growth was due to rising rates on its cash deposit balances. This should wane.
  • The company’s effective tax rate moved from 14% in the past few years, when it was stable to 10% in most recent period, this is not a core positive attribute.
  • Geopolitical risk, economic malaise in both Hong Kong and China, can lead to less interest in the market, trading, placements, perhaps suggesting its 6x PB is not warranted?

HashKey Group secures US$100M in Series A financing, turns unicorn | e27

By e27

  • HashKey Group, an end-to-end digital asset financial services group based in Hong Kong, has completed a Series A financing round of nearly US$100 million at a pre-money valuation of over US$1.2 billion.
  • The round attracted new and existing investors, including prominent institutional investors, leading Web3 institutions, and strategic partners.
  • The group will use the money to accelerate the product diversification of its licensed business in Hong Kong and drive development globally.

Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the “usual” 15% conglomerate discount, and 5-year average of 9%.
  • C shares are trading at a 0% discount to A shares. My target NAV is SEK 158,215 million, an 8.5% increase. My target TP, assuming 5% discount/NAV, is SEK 329.5.
  • Implementing the typical holding discount trade would be risky. However, I would put on a reversal trade, betting on a widening of the discount up to around 7.5%-8%.

EML Payments – Major source of losses stemmed

By Edison Investment Research

As part of its strategy to focus on profitable, cash-generative businesses, the boards of EML Payments and PFS Card Services Ireland Limited (PCSIL) have decided to wind down the PCSIL business. This removes a source of considerable cash burn and management distraction and leaves the group better positioned to support the Gifting and the Australian and UK General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) businesses. The strategic review is ongoing and management noted it had received several expressions of interest for Sentenial. FY24 guidance given in November is maintained despite the PCSIL liquidation. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the November trading update and the PCSIL liquidation, upgrading our underlying EBITDA forecasts by 14.9% in FY24 and 6.0% in FY25.


Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Health Care: China Medical System, Concord Biotech Ltd, ProTA Therapeutics Pty , Resmed Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Medical System (867 HK) – A Wise Choice in a Bear Market
  • Concord Biotech’s US$650m Lock-Up Expiry – Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains
  • Prota raises US$21M led by Singapore’s SPRIM for its peanut allergy therapy | e27
  • ResMed Inc: Potential expansion of sleep awareness and population health management strategies to boost growth! – Major Drivers


China Medical System (867 HK) – A Wise Choice in a Bear Market

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • CMS’s way of in-licensing products has shifted from CSO model to asset-purchase model so as to enhance control on the assets. But the transformation hasn’t been recognized by the market.     
  • Despite outstanding fundamentals, CMS’s valuation remains low. Doubts about the Company’s real R&D capabilities/core competitiveness and the negative image due to past financial fraud could be the reasons.
  • CMS would encounter performance headwinds in 2023/2024 due to VBP, but revenue/profit growth is expected to pick up in 2025. It’s still a good defensive choice in a bear market.

Concord Biotech’s US$650m Lock-Up Expiry – Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains

By Clarence Chu

  • Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) listed in India on 18th Aug 23 after raising US$188m. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown with Helix Investment selling its entire stake.
  • Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry on 7th Feb 24 are the firm’s pre-IPO shareholders, along with a portion of its promoters’ stake.

Prota raises US$21M led by Singapore’s SPRIM for its peanut allergy therapy | e27

By e27

  • Singapore-based health sciences VC firm SPRIM Global Investments has led the US$21 million funding round (equity and debt) of Australian biotech firm Prota Therapeutics.
  • The fresh funding will be used to advance the development of Prota’s peanut allergy remission oral therapy, PRT120, which is being prepared for the phase 3 clinical investigation.
  • The new investment will advance the chemistry, manufacturing, and controls (CMC), accelerate the path to an investigational new drug application (IND), and expand Prota’s executive management team to bring on board critical expertise in late-stage drug development and commercialisation.

ResMed Inc: Potential expansion of sleep awareness and population health management strategies to boost growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q2 FY2024 earnings for ResMed, the company registered strong execution across its entire business, reflecting in double-digit top and bottom-line growth.
  • The results were primarily driven by double-digit global growth in both devices and its Software as a Service (SaaS) business.
  • ResMed is addressing a significant problem considering there are over 2 billion people worldwide suffering from sleep apnea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, respiratory insufficiency resulting from neuromuscular disease, or insomnia.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology, General Electric , Grupo Aeromexico, iPower , Kbr Inc, Textron Inc, Csx Corp, United Rentals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup
  • General Dynamics: Continued Growth In The Aerospace Sector Responsible For A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers
  • Aeromexico – International Strength Accelerating Progress but Delta JCA Termination a Speed Bump
  • IPower, Inc.- 2QFY24 Preview: Looking for Updates on Key Initiatives
  • Kbr Inc (KBR) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • Textron Inc: Improved Supply Chain and Labor Productivity Could Help Save The Day? – Major Drivers
  • CSX Corporation: Revenue expectations considering coal prices and intermodal market dynamics! – Major Drivers
  • United Rentals Inc: Increased Used Equipment Sales & Other Major Drivers


STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
  • There are 10 stocks in inclusion zone and 11 in deletion zone. There should be 10 changes since that is the cap for the maximum changes at a single rebalance.
  • The potential adds and deletes are down between 37-47% over the last 6 months and a long/short trade could provide superior risk-adjusted returns.

General Dynamics: Continued Growth In The Aerospace Sector Responsible For A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • General Dynamics Corporation’s quarterly and full-year results for 2023 indicate a strong performance with increased revenues and operating earnings as well as modest earnings per share growth.
  • However, the growth rate for earnings per share was slower than expected due to higher net income in the previous year.
  • Sequentially, the company’s results improved significantly, with increases in revenue, operating earnings, net earnings, and earnings per share.

Aeromexico – International Strength Accelerating Progress but Delta JCA Termination a Speed Bump

By Neil Glynn

  • We raise our forecasts to reflect the strength of International revenue at Aeromexico – we expect it to beat 2023 EBITDAR targets by 26%
  • Aeromexico has been outperforming domestic competitors Volaris, Viva Aerobus due to international unit revenue gains – their forced capacity cuts due to GTF issues should help Aeromexico manage 2024 margins
  • Fitting with the global theme of consolidation difficulties, the US has ruled the Delta/Aeromexico JV must terminate – this could be a double digit % risk to PBT

IPower, Inc.- 2QFY24 Preview: Looking for Updates on Key Initiatives

By Water Tower Research

  • iPower is expected to report its 2QFY24 results in mid-February. Investors will continue to focus on the company’s progress on key initiatives.
  • While continuing to grow its key Amazon relationship, iPower is also expanding its distribution channels.
  • We look for an update on the growth of its TikTok Shop business as well as developments with physical retailers.

Kbr Inc (KBR) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • KBR’s Global Solutions segment offers various services to government clients globally, making it the company’s largest business.
  • The Technology Solutions segment provides proprietary technologies and engineering services primarily for the energy, chemicals, and hydrocarbons industries.
  • KBR’s stock is currently undervalued compared to its peers, presenting potential for significant upside if it can reach its target valuation. 

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Textron Inc: Improved Supply Chain and Labor Productivity Could Help Save The Day? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Textron Inc.’s strong performance and positive margins were highlighted in its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call.
  • The industrial conglomerate generated $3.9 billion in quarterly revenue, a rise from $3.6 billion posted in the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • Textron’s segment profit was $384 million, $78 million higher than that of the fourth quarter of the previous year.

CSX Corporation: Revenue expectations considering coal prices and intermodal market dynamics! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CSX Corporation posted solid 2023 results, setting a strong precedent for 2024 due to its robust financial position and positive business momentum.
  • Despite facing challenges like inclement weather, 2023 was marked by healthy volumes, favorable pricing measures, strong operating margins, and more.
  • The company experienced setbacks due to higher interest rates and supply chain disruptions, but managed to mitigate these issues.

United Rentals Inc: Increased Used Equipment Sales & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings from United Rentals highlight several points of growing interest for potential investors.
  • The company achieved record-breaking results for the fourth quarter of the year, as noted by President and CEO Matt Flannery, through the continuation of a customer-centric approach to operational excellence and safety.
  • The company’s achievements are marked by record revenue, earnings, and returns, underpinned by a strategic acquisition and the focus on integration.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SK Innovation, Ssangyong Cement Industrial, Silver Lake Resources, Haynes International, Fortuna Silver Mines, Freeport Mcmoran, Advanced Emissions Solutions I, Gold, W&T Offshore, Lithium Americas Argentina Cor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Innovation: Announces Share Cancellation of Nearly 4.92 Million Shares
  • Ssangyong C&E (003410 KS): Hahn & Co’s Tender Offer
  • Silver Lake (SLR AU): Merger Terms Favour Red 5 (RED AU)
  • Acerinox/Haynes: Expansion in High-Performance Alloys
  • Mining Monthly: January Edition
  • Freeport-McMoran Inc: Efficiencies From Automation & Advanced Technologies As A Game Changer! – Major Drivers
  • Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • Gold Demand Data Confirms Economic Rebound // Latest CTA Positioning Calls from UBS
  • W&T Offshore, Inc. – Cox Acquisition Bolsters Free Cash Flow Profile
  • Lithium Amers (Argentina) Cp (LAAC.) – Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023


SK Innovation: Announces Share Cancellation of Nearly 4.92 Million Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 5 February, SK Innovation (096770 KS) announced a large-scale shares cancellation of 4.92 million shares, representing 4.9% of outstanding shares. 
  • This is the first ever large scale shares cancellation for SK Innovation since it was first established in 2011.
  • All in all, despite the company’s disappointing results in 2023, the large scale share cancellation should help to support SK Innovation’s share price in the coming weeks. 

Ssangyong C&E (003410 KS): Hahn & Co’s Tender Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Today, 5 February, PE-outfit Hahn & Co commenced its Tender Offer for the 20.1% of shares not held in cement manufacturer Ssangyong C&E (003410 KS).
  • The Tender Offer price is ₩7,000/share, a 9.2% premium to last close; although shares did gain ~12.2% just prior to the Offer.
  • There is no minimum acceptance condition. Hahn & Co will purchase all shares tendered. Payment is the 8 March. This will trade tight. 

Silver Lake (SLR AU): Merger Terms Favour Red 5 (RED AU)

By Arun George

  • Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) and Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) will merge. SLR shareholders receive 3.434 RED shares per SLR share, implying A$1.133, a 10.4% discount to the undisturbed price. 
  • The merger is strategically sensible as the combined entity should re-rate due to scale, diversification and better cash flow generation.
  • The merger terms are more favourable for RED shareholders than SLR shareholders, posing a risk for the vote. The merger may draw out rival suitors.  

Acerinox/Haynes: Expansion in High-Performance Alloys

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 5 February, Acerinox SA (ACX SM) announced a friendly $61/share all-cash offer to acquire Haynes International (HAYN US), implied equity value $798 million, implied EV $970 million and 8.7% premium.
  • The offer represents 1.5x EV/24e Sales, 10.1x EV/24e EBITDA (5.8x including run-rate estimated synergies of c.$71 million, seemingly quite large). The acquisition amounts to approximately 33% of Acerinox’s market cap.
  • Acerinox is paying higher multiples than those at which Acerinox itself is trading. The deal should close. The shares of Haynes are already up 2.7% pre-market after Q1 results. Long.

Mining Monthly: January Edition

By Atrium Research

  • Gold held flat in January following a big monthly gain of 13% and reaching all-time highs in December, while mining equities lagged.
  • Besides gold, other precious metals, commodities, and battery metals had a mixed month, while uranium’s strong performance accelerated, up 16% in January and hitting its highest price in more than 16 years.
  • We attended a busy Vancouver Resource Investment Conference in January.

Freeport-McMoran Inc: Efficiencies From Automation & Advanced Technologies As A Game Changer! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In FY 2023, Freeport-McMoRan reported solid operating results across its operations.
  • A key highlight was its robust performance in Indonesia, where production levels improved for the fourth consecutive year and several new operating records were set.
  • The company also reached several milestones, including achieving a target run rate for their leach production in the Americas and making significant progress on the Indonesian smelter project.

Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • The EPA will be implementing regulations to reduce levels of PFAS chemicals in municipalities, due to the health risks associated with them.
  • Major retailers like Amazon, Lowe’s, and McDonald’s are adopting policies to eliminate and prohibit the use of PFAS chemicals in their products.
  • 3M, a major supplier of PFAS, agreed to a $10 billion settlement in June 2023.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Gold Demand Data Confirms Economic Rebound // Latest CTA Positioning Calls from UBS

By The Commodity Report

  • Last week the World Gold Council published its figures for the fourth quarter of 2023.

  • Gold demand for technology, electronics and other industrial use cases continued to improve in nominal and YoY terms – pointing to an economic rebound.

  • “Technology demand proved another surprising element in 2023, churning out stellar growth in Q4, albeit from a low base.


W&T Offshore, Inc. – Cox Acquisition Bolsters Free Cash Flow Profile

By Water Tower Research

  • W&T Offshore closed an acquisition of six operated oil & gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico on January 22, 2024, for $72 million.
  • The acquisition, which was funded with cash on hand, fits management’s philosophy of investing capital in short- cycle opportunities capable of generating free cash flow.
  • The acquired assets include 100% working interests (82% net revenue interests) in six producing fields adjacent to W&T’s existing asset footprint.

Lithium Amers (Argentina) Cp (LAAC.) – Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • US-based operations of Lithium Americas are separate from potential trade disputes.
  • Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp has an attractive valuation, strong cash flows, and a favorable mining jurisdiction in Argentina.
  • The author believes the stock has the potential to double within 12 months, with a price target of $12.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Singapore: Ascendas India Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • REIT Watch – Data centre S-Reits positive about riding AI wave


REIT Watch – Data centre S-Reits positive about riding AI wave

By Geoff Howie

  • REIT Watch – Data centre S-Reits positive about riding AI wave The exponential progress of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning is expected to create unprecedented demand for global data centres, noted JLL in its Data Centres 2024 Global Outlook.
  • MIT’s portfolio occupancy for its data centre segment is at 91.0 per cent (as at Dec 31, 2023), 2.4 percentage points lower quarter on quarter.

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