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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: The Ultimate Debt Chart: Why Central Banks Hold the Key to Debt Sustainability and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Ultimate Debt Chart: Why Central Banks Hold the Key to Debt Sustainability
  • [Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean
  • CX Daily: China Set for Interest Rate Cuts to Support Economy
  • Downshifting & Ending QT


The Ultimate Debt Chart: Why Central Banks Hold the Key to Debt Sustainability

By Jeroen Blokland

  • The relationship between total debt-to-GDP and bond yields is negative.
  • The rationale is simple: central banks implementing extreme monetary policy to push yields down artificially.
  • The combination of structurally low-interest rates, higher inflation, and growing worries about debt sustainability requires a portfolio shuffle.

[Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean

By Pranay Yadav

  • Depressed Soybean crush margin to deal a further blow to Soybean demand.
  • The outlook for Soy Meal and Soy Oil is better than the outlook for Soybean.
  • Important production guidance updates from CONAB and USDA this week. Expectations point to lower production and lower consumption. 

CX Daily: China Set for Interest Rate Cuts to Support Economy

By Caixin Global

  • Rate cuts / In Depth: China set for interest rate cuts to support economy
  • Funds /: China’s star fund manager under investigation, sources say
  • Corruption /: Ex-chief of China Merchants Bank receives suspended death sentence

Downshifting & Ending QT

By Thomas Lam

  • Chair Powell recently noted that more “in-depth discussions” on QT are forthcoming
  • Market participants differ on the likely timing of ending QT and desired level of “ample reserves”
  • Non-Monetary considerations and broad market conditions can potentially sway the QT debate  

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth
  • Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Going Places!
  • Pair Trade:  L’Oreal / Shiseido
  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Setting the Pace in 2024
  • The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Part 1
  • KPIT: On Track to Beat the FY24 Raised Guidance
  • American Airlines: Corporate Recovery and Shift to Internet-based Channels! – Major Drivers
  • Bv Financial Inc (BVFL) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • KLA Corporation: Leading Edge Investments and Memory Conversions & Other Major Drivers
  • Himax: Industry Readthrough for Automotives, Notebooks, and Edge AI Applications


Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY and its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points YoY in 3Q24.
  • We believe the company turned its focus from margin improvement to revenue growth.
  • We set the upside at 20% and the price target at HK$90 for March 2025. Buy.

Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Going Places!

By Rikki Malik

  • A company that is geared to Japan’s macro revival with additional micro catalysts. 
  • Ownership of financial companies which are set to benefit from a normalisation of Japanese monetary policy.
  • The low Price to Book means the company will need to keep up momentum on its capital management plans to  stay in the Prime Section of Topix.

Pair Trade:  L’Oreal / Shiseido

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • L’Oreal SA (OR FP) is the largest beauty company in the world, with a 15% global market share.  The second place in contrast has only around 5% market share. 
  • The company has been excellently managed, and out-performed the overall global beauty industry growth by an average of 5% over the last 3 years.  However, growth could be slowing down.
  • L’Oreal is now trading at 34x forward PE, which is a near 100% premium over the average of European consumer staples, and near a multi-decade high. 

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Setting the Pace in 2024

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. 
  • The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.
  • Bank Mandiri‘s guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Part 1

By Value Punks

  • Not so long ago, Disney’s share price was nearing the $200 mark, despite the pandemic’s severe impact on its Parks and Resorts business.
  • Fast forward to the present, and even with the parks posting record results, Disney’s share price has fallen to levels not seen in a decade, raising the question: what happened?
  • Several factors are at play, including challenges within the studio arm, ongoing decline of its legacy media operations, and Big Tech’s incursion into sports media.

KPIT: On Track to Beat the FY24 Raised Guidance

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Despite upping the FY24 guidance in the prior quarter (Q2FY24), KPIT is confident of beating even the raised guidance, led by strong Q3FY24 performance and an upbeat outlook.
  • Despite accelerated revenue in H1FY24 from the Honda engagement, Q3FY24 saw robust revenue growth of 4.3% QoQ in CC terms. EBITDA margin expanded to 20.6% vs 20% QoQ. 
  • KPIT’s new venture, Qorix, is coming along well and could prove to be transformative. This could enable KPIT to become a product company, alongside being a high-growth service company.

American Airlines: Corporate Recovery and Shift to Internet-based Channels! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The American Airlines Group reported adjusted pretax profit of $257 million for the fourth quarter and approximately $2.5 billion for the full year 2023.
  • This result was driven by the strength of the network, demand for products, and execution by the team.
  • Positive indications from the group include historically strong operation with the production of record free cash flow and a strengthened balance sheet through debt reduction.

Bv Financial Inc (BVFL) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • BV Financial recently completed its conversion from a mutual holding company to a full-converted stock company.
  • The bank has consistently achieved a return on equity of 10-11% in recent years.
  • Despite its significant growth, BV Financial’s securities represent only 5% of its total assets of $933 million.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


KLA Corporation: Leading Edge Investments and Memory Conversions & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • KLA Corporation saw a revenue of nearly $9.7 billion in 2023, marking a decrease of 8% compared to the previous year.
  • Despite less leading-edge investment in both logic and memory, legacy node customers and the semiconductor infrastructure assisted in exceeding the initially projected revenue.
  • Business segments such as automotive, specialty semiconductor process equipment, and infrastructure for wafer and mass manufactures experienced growth in 2023.

Himax: Industry Readthrough for Automotives, Notebooks, and Edge AI Applications

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Readthrough: Automotive Applications End-Demand — China Market Soft But Touch and Dimming Technology is Expanding
  • Readthrough: Panel Makers Constraining Supply in 1Q24 to Protect Pricing
  • Readthrough: Customers Are Restocking Notebooks in 1Q24E, PC Replacement Cycle is Coming

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Daily Brief Industrials: Samhyun, Gol Linhas Aereas Intel-Adr and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Samhyun IPO Valuation Analysis
  • GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing


Samhyun IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Samhyun is target price of 28,106 won, which is 25% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range (22,500 won).
  • Given the moderate upside, we have a Positive view of Samhyun IPO. Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 34.6x net profit of 8.6 billion won in 2023.
  • Samhyun developed one of the world’s first CVVD (Continuously Variable Valve Duration) technology for automobile engines, which improves fuel efficiency by controlling the engine’s valve opening time.

GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing

By Neil Glynn

  • GOL recently filed for CH11 bankruptcy protection as it was due to run out of readily available cash in mid-February. We assess the ramifications.
  • We highlight that GOL may need to reduce aircraft ownership/financing costs by a third to achieve PBT margins of 5%+; difficult in a strong aircraft leasing market.
  • We see the risk GOL loses scale. However, long-term, an increasingly competitive GOL is good for its parent Abra Group, and sister company Avianca.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Silver Lake Resources, Rent.com.au Ltd, Endurance Gold, Tethys Oil , Vitesse Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Red 5/Silver Lake: US$1.5bn Aussie Gold Merger
  • Rent.com.au Ltd – Strong Across the Board Growth in Revenue in Q2
  • EDG: Successful Initial Work on the Olympic Claims
  • Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): All Eyes on Block 56. Outcome of Strategic Review Expected in 1Q24
  • Vitesse Energy, Inc. – Estimate Update


Red 5/Silver Lake: US$1.5bn Aussie Gold Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Aussie gold miners Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) and Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) have announced a “merger of equals” via a Scheme of Arrangement.
  • Red is offering 3.434 new shares for every SLR share, and will hold ~51.7% of the merged entity, with SLR shareholders holding the remaining 48.3%.
  • This has the unanimous backing of both boards. Yet SLR appears to be given short shrift on the merger ratio. Plus SLR holds ~11.9% of shares out in Red.

Rent.com.au Ltd – Strong Across the Board Growth in Revenue in Q2

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Rent.com.au Limited (ASX:RNT) is a purpose-led company seeking to empower home renters through its technology platform and a growing number of aligned transactional services.
  • The company has reported a 33% year-on-year increase in Q2 FY24 revenue to $0.808m, in what is seasonally the weakest quarter for the group.
  • Search portal revenue grew 11% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) but, not unexpectedly, dropped 7% on Q1 due to seasonal factors. 

EDG: Successful Initial Work on the Olympic Claims

By Atrium Research

  • EDG reported prospective soil sample results from the Olympic Claims of its Reliance Gold Project.
  • The Company collected 19 rock grab samples of which five assayed greater than 5.5 g/t Au with the best results including 25.1 g/t Au and 22.3 g/t Au. 
  • This release highlights to investors the significant exploration upside beyond the Royal Shear. 

Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): All Eyes on Block 56. Outcome of Strategic Review Expected in 1Q24

By Auctus Advisors

  • Overall 4Q23 financials were ahead of our expectations and, despite a small underlift position, YE23 cash was US$25.8 mm, above our forecasts of US$22.2 mm.
  • Tethys expects to spend US$90-94 mm capex in 2024.
  • This is above our forecasts of US$70 mm that incorporated only US$10 mm of exploration and appraisal capex on Block 56 and Block 58.

Vitesse Energy, Inc. – Estimate Update

By Water Tower Research

  • We are updating our 4Q23 and FY24 estimates to reflect actual 4Q23 reference prices and lower estimated FY24 natural gas prices.
  • Our 4Q23 NYMEX reference prices averaged $78.32/bbl for oil and $2.92/MMBtu for natural gas compared with our $85.00 and $3.00/MMBtu estimates.
  • We have lowered our average FY24 natural gas price estimate to $2.66/MMBtu from $3.44/MMBtu. We are currently modeling average FY24 oil prices of $80/bbl.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), United Microelectron Sp Adr, Novatek Microelectronics Corp, WRKR, Lasertec Corp, MotorK Ltd, Gorilla Technology Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying
  • Intel’s UMC Partnership Is A Big Deal. For UMC.
  • Largest Display Driver Maker in the World’s Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March
  • Novatek (3034.TT): It’s the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.
  • Wrkr Limited – The Investment Case Continues to Come Together
  • KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP
  • MotorK – Enterprise adoption drives growth
  • Gorilla Technology Group, Inc. – Significant Beat for First Nine Months 2023


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE & Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting
  • Largest Display Driver Maker in the World’s Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March
  • TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home

Intel’s UMC Partnership Is A Big Deal. For UMC.

By William Keating

  • UMC’s Q423 results in line with expectations. Q124 guidance, down 2-3% QoQ, demonstrates ongoing headwinds for foundry
  • Intel, UMC foundry partnership helps the latter overcome their 14nm issues while giving them bargain basement access to US manufacturing capacity 
  • If Intel could have developed and deployed the proposed 12nm specialty process on their own, they would have….

Largest Display Driver Maker in the World’s Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Novatek reported over 20% YoY growth for 4Q23 and slightly beat expectations but the latest guidance implies growth to reverse to a sales contraction in the latter part of 1Q24E.
  • Gross and operating margins are guided to contract; nevertheless, inventory dropped to one of the lowest levels since COVID and is expected to remain healthy.
  • Novatek’s latest results appear to signal that while inventory levels are healthy, the demand growth rebound for display drivers that started in June 2023E could lose steam in 1Q24E.

Novatek (3034.TT): It’s the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

By Patrick Liao

  • 4Q23 surpassed the guidance for revenue, GM, and OPM. 4Q23 EPS reached NT$8.76, compared to NT$10.46 in 3Q23 and NT$6.64 in 4Q22.
  • 1Q24F is typically the traditional low season for consumer electronics, and there are fewer working days during the Lunar New Year.
  • It is expected that the dividend payout ratio this year will be similar to previous years, which has been higher than 80% in the past few years.

Wrkr Limited – The Investment Case Continues to Come Together

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
  • (ASX:LNK) has moved from ‘discovery and planning’ payments ($425k in H1 FY24) to a full feature trial with a named super fund (REST).
  • We now expect onboarding during Q1 FY25, a quarter behind previous assumptions. Link has announced an MoU to extend its contract with Australian Super out until 2028 (from June 2025). 

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.
  • KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.
  • KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91

MotorK – Enterprise adoption drives growth

By Edison Investment Research

MotorK closed FY23 with annual recurring revenue (ARR) of €34.1m, a 39% increase from the prior year. While both the Retail and Enterprise segments grew over the year, Enterprise ARR more than doubled to make up 22% of year-end ARR. Net revenue retention (NRR) above 100% for both segments highlights the ongoing adoption of multiple products across the group’s existing customer base. The company continues to target positive cash EBITDA in FY24. We maintain our forecasts pending FY23 results on 5 March.


Gorilla Technology Group, Inc. – Significant Beat for First Nine Months 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • Gorilla Technology reported a strong first nine months of 2023, with adjusted EBITDA of $13.4 million versus a $4 million loss for the same period the previous year.
  • The stock closed up 96% after the earnings release.
  • The profit turnaround was driven by: (1) revenue growth of more than 100% to $38.0 million for nine months (analysts were expecting $21.8 million); and (2) an increase in gross margin from 33.2% a year ago to 76.5% for the nine-month period.

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Daily Brief Financials: Power Finance, State Bank Of India, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Information Services, Secure Trust Bank, Target Healthcare REIT PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run
  • State Bank of India (SBIN) – 3Q24 Update: Short-Term Pressure Is an Opportunity to Accumulate
  • Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, Guangzhou R&F Properties, UPL Ltd
  • Information Services Corporation – Services division set to be a key organic driver
  • Secure Trust Bank – FY23 underlying PBT broadly maintained
  • Target Healthcare REIT – Rent cover at a high and fully covered DPS


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the March rebalance complete, there could be 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 13.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 28.6bn. Four inclusions will have over 1x ADV to buy; five deletions will have 2.5x+ ADV to sell.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 28.6% over the last month. With positioning from a rebalance perspective mostly done, gradually unwind over the next few weeks.

State Bank of India (SBIN) – 3Q24 Update: Short-Term Pressure Is an Opportunity to Accumulate

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) has reported its 3Q24 (Dec-23) results with a one-off pension and wages revision charge which impacts the short-term earnings profile.
  • Medium-Term ROE Forecast Intact (16% to 18%) with management confident of even touching 20% in next couple of years; loan growth forecast of 14% to 16% for FY25e-FY26e.
  • We reiterate our view: P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e. SBIN has the potential to re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~40% upside). Opportunity to ADD.

Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, Guangzhou R&F Properties, UPL Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Information Services Corporation – Services division set to be a key organic driver

By Edison Investment Research

In FY23 Information Services Corporation (ISC) remained on a positive trajectory of securing new contracts and customers, despite prevailing macroeconomic headwinds and a subdued Canadian property market. We expect this momentum to continue in FY24, bolstered by the Services division, the key organic engine of the group. Management has reaffirmed FY23 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance of C$207–212m (Edison: C$210m) and C$71–76m (Edison: C$75m), respectively. In addition, FY24 guidance has been introduced; our FY24e adjusted EBITDA estimate of C$90m falls within the guided range of C$83–91m, while our conservative FY24e revenue estimate of C$230m is marginally below the guided C$240–250m range. We will update our estimates following the release of FY23 results in early March.


Secure Trust Bank – FY23 underlying PBT broadly maintained

By Edison Investment Research

Secure Trust Bank’s (STB’s) Q423 trading update showcased a robust performance with net loans of £3.3bn, up 13.6% y-o-y. The bank reaffirmed that it is on track to deliver £5m in annualised cost savings in FY24 through its ongoing cost optimisation programme. Despite rising deposit costs, STB’s net interest margin (NIM) remained flat with H123 at 5.4%. STB’s disclosure of modest exposure to discretionary commissions in motor finance lending should be a relief to investors, as the ongoing Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) investigation has been an uncertainty overhanging the sector. Our underlying continuing PBT estimates fell by 2% on marginally lower NIM expectations. Meanwhile, we have reduced our continuing PBT estimate by 7% to £41.7m as we have included a £2.3m exceptional cost related to the FCA’s Borrowers in Financial Difficulty industry-wide review. Our FY24 estimates are unchanged.


Target Healthcare REIT – Rent cover at a high and fully covered DPS

By Edison Investment Research

Target Healthcare REIT’s Q224 update shows indexed rent reviews driving increased earnings and property values. Tenant profitability continues to strengthen, reflected in a new high level of rent cover and a continuing high level of rent collection. Quarterly DPS, increased by 2% at the start of FY24, is now well covered by adjusted earnings.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Samhyun, Gol Linhas Aereas Intel-Adr and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Samhyun IPO Valuation Analysis
  • GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing


Samhyun IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Samhyun is target price of 28,106 won, which is 25% higher than the mid-point of the IPO price range (22,500 won).
  • Given the moderate upside, we have a Positive view of Samhyun IPO. Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 34.6x net profit of 8.6 billion won in 2023.
  • Samhyun developed one of the world’s first CVVD (Continuously Variable Valve Duration) technology for automobile engines, which improves fuel efficiency by controlling the engine’s valve opening time.

GOL – Ramifications of GOL’s Chapter 11 Filing

By Neil Glynn

  • GOL recently filed for CH11 bankruptcy protection as it was due to run out of readily available cash in mid-February. We assess the ramifications.
  • We highlight that GOL may need to reduce aircraft ownership/financing costs by a third to achieve PBT margins of 5%+; difficult in a strong aircraft leasing market.
  • We see the risk GOL loses scale. However, long-term, an increasingly competitive GOL is good for its parent Abra Group, and sister company Avianca.

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Daily Brief Health Care: MorphoSys AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster


Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Novartis offers an agreed €68/share, 89% premium, for MorphoSys AG (MOR US) in a bet that pelabrisib could become a blockbuster to treat myelofibrosis (possibly reaching peak sales of $1.1-1.5 billion).
  • Considering that the shares of Morphosys were trading in the low teens in November, I believe that shareholders will be happy to part with the shares.
  • Spread (gross/annualised) is 4.65%/18.09% (assuming settlement by 20 May). Novartis believes pelabrisib is definitely worth the risk. Long.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Lawson Inc, Oriental Land, L’Occitane, Shiseido Company, Water Oasis, Titan Co Ltd, Kayou and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure – KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private
  • Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360
  • Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer
  • Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable
  • Water Oasis 1161 HK: Gone Ex-Dividend, Trading at 7.5x PE FY24 and an 11% Dividend Yield
  • NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in March
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Here We Go Again
  • Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model
  • Kayou Pre-IPO Tearsheet


The Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure – KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, just before the close, the Nikkei sprung a headline saying KDDI Corp (9433 JP) would take over Lawson Inc (2651 JP). The stock immediately headed to limit up. 
  • Post-Close, details emerged. KDDI will buy the 50% that MitCorp does not own, this will become a 50/50 JV. TOB launch at ¥10,360 will be in April. Squeezeout in September.
  • This appears to be the Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure. The premium is too light. The price is too low. And that is not counting the synergies.

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

By Arun George

  • Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from KDDI Corp (9433 JP) at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). 
  • The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. 

Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
  • Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.
  • If Elliott’s campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a similar proposal.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that L’Occitane (973 HK) draws takeover interest from Blackstone (BX US), which is considering partnering with Chairman and largest shareholder Reinold Geiger.
  • Blackstone needs an attractive takeover premium due to the presence of significant disinterested shareholders (Mr. Geiger and Acatis KVG).
  • Shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour due to Mr Geiger’s aborted offer on 4 September 2023. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

Shiseido (4911 JP):  This Fallen Angel Is Fixable

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Shiseido Company (4911 JP) relies heavily on Japan and China, each making up over one quarter of sales. 
  • The long thesis is simple – I expect improvement in both regions in the near future, and the valuation is very attractive.
  • Blackstone just announced a potential bid for L’Occitane (973 HK), which I have written extensively about.  We could potentially see a pickup in interest in the sector.

Water Oasis 1161 HK: Gone Ex-Dividend, Trading at 7.5x PE FY24 and an 11% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Water Oasis (1161 HK) just went ex-dividend on 6th Feb and is now trading at a 7.5x PE FY24e and a 10.7% dividend yield on trailing FY23 earnings.  
  • The company has refurbished its flagship stores, and we believe it can perform 8-9% better year over year for FY24 than FY23.
  • The company also has 230 mn HKD net cash (after netting dividends paid out), representing     26% of market capitalization.

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in March

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be one change for the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 March.
  • Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 12.6% and in a one-way trade of INR 3.7bn.
  • While the deletion is fairly certain, there are a few non-constituents around the same level of volatility and price movements over the next few weeks will determine the inclusion.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Here We Go Again

By David Blennerhassett

  • From 2018 onward, French beauty retailer L’Occitane (973 HK) has apparently drawn interest from the likes of Advent International and its controlling shareholder Chairman Reinold Geiger – amongst others. 
  • There is substance to these “Offers” – Geiger confirmed in August 2023 he was contemplating a conditional voluntary general Offer. He holds 72.65% of shares out according to the HKEx. 
  • The latest news, with no definitive source, is that Blackstone is mulling the possibility of teaming up with Geiger on a buyout.

Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model

By Michael Causton

  • KDDI’s agreement with Lawson and Mitsubishi to make a tender offer for the convenience store chain is a game-changer for what has become a slow growth convenience store sector.
  • There are myriad potential synergies across e-commerce, new store types and also the promising new revenue stream of retail media. Lawson may be worth more than KDDI’s offer suggests.
  • And while Lawson may be behind Seven Eleven and Familymart, on some KPIs, like HQ revenues, it is No. 1 and also matches Seven Eleven on same-store sales.

Kayou Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Kayou (000KAYOU CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan.
  • Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product. 
  • As of 9M23 (30th Sep 23), it had an IP matrix of 44 IPs through licensing from IP partners and the development of proprietary IPs. 

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Most Read: Mitsui Fudosan, Lawson Inc, Infosys Ltd, Giordano International, Oriental Land, Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology, L’Occitane, Silver Lake Resources, Power Finance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)
  • The Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure – KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private
  • India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February
  • Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360
  • Cheng Family Seeks Board Control Of Giordano (709 HK)
  • Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition
  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer
  • Red 5/Silver Lake: US$1.5bn Aussie Gold Merger
  • NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)

By Travis Lundy

  • The FT carries an article this AM saying Elliott Management have built a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and has asked it to undertake measures to increase ROE.
  • Measures requested apparently include a very large buyback and a demand the company sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP). The article is worth reading.  
  • Shares are up sharply on this news. The fund was in the news last year about this time regarding Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP). I’d expect more noise to come. 

The Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure – KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, just before the close, the Nikkei sprung a headline saying KDDI Corp (9433 JP) would take over Lawson Inc (2651 JP). The stock immediately headed to limit up. 
  • Post-Close, details emerged. KDDI will buy the 50% that MitCorp does not own, this will become a 50/50 JV. TOB launch at ¥10,360 will be in April. Squeezeout in September.
  • This appears to be the Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure. The premium is too light. The price is too low. And that is not counting the synergies.

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

By Brian Freitas

  • Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
  • The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
  • There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

By Arun George

  • Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from KDDI Corp (9433 JP) at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). 
  • The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. 

Cheng Family Seeks Board Control Of Giordano (709 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of Giordano International (709 HK), the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors. 
  • Sino Wealth, a Cheng family’s vehicle with 24.06% of shares, has requisitioned an SGM to remove CEO Peter Lau, and install Colin Currie as CEO, plus appoint three other NEDs/INEDs.
  • If this were to come to pass, the family would have (almost) effective control of the board. The vote will be close. And David Webb is now below 5%. 

Oriental Land: A Storm Brewing from Activist Coalition

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Activist investor, Elliott Management has acquired over a 2% stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and is urging it to sell its 6% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
  • Elliott appears to have identified the path of least resistance, as Mitsui Fudosan had already indicated a willingness to sell its Oriental Land shares last year.
  • If Elliott’s campaign proves successful, it will inadvertently benefit Palliser, which is currently challenging Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a similar proposal.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
  • There are 10 stocks in inclusion zone and 11 in deletion zone. There should be 10 changes since that is the cap for the maximum changes at a single rebalance.
  • The potential adds and deletes are down between 37-47% over the last 6 months and a long/short trade could provide superior risk-adjusted returns.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that L’Occitane (973 HK) draws takeover interest from Blackstone (BX US), which is considering partnering with Chairman and largest shareholder Reinold Geiger.
  • Blackstone needs an attractive takeover premium due to the presence of significant disinterested shareholders (Mr. Geiger and Acatis KVG).
  • Shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour due to Mr Geiger’s aborted offer on 4 September 2023. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

Red 5/Silver Lake: US$1.5bn Aussie Gold Merger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Aussie gold miners Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) and Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) have announced a “merger of equals” via a Scheme of Arrangement.
  • Red is offering 3.434 new shares for every SLR share, and will hold ~51.7% of the merged entity, with SLR shareholders holding the remaining 48.3%.
  • This has the unanimous backing of both boards. Yet SLR appears to be given short shrift on the merger ratio. Plus SLR holds ~11.9% of shares out in Red.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Continue to Run

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the March rebalance complete, there could be 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 13.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 28.6bn. Four inclusions will have over 1x ADV to buy; five deletions will have 2.5x+ ADV to sell.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 28.6% over the last month. With positioning from a rebalance perspective mostly done, gradually unwind over the next few weeks.

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