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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Woori Financial Group , Thai Credit Bank PCL, Bank Of Baroda, SBFC Finance Limited, Bitcoin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies
  • Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading – Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid
  • Indian Banks Screener: Bank of Baroda Remains the Value Pick, HDFC Bank Is the Quality Name
  • SBFC Finance Lockup Expiry – Time to Cash in on Some Hefty Profits
  • Crypto Moves #14 – It’s Not About What’s There, But What Isn’t


Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies

By Sanghyun Park

  • Stake sales by Affinity and Bearing PE are attractive due to the absence of special partnerships with Shinhan Financial Group, indicating favorable exit potential at current stock prices.
  • KB Financial draws attention due to Carlyle’s ₩240B EB investment in 2020. Carlyle can now convert to shares at ₩48,000/share, yielding 37.08%.
  • Woori Financial is intriguing. IMM PE and Eugene PE hold stakes, investing ₩450B and ₩386B respectively. Their yields are 32.55% and 10.45% respectively. No constraints on divestment.

Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading – Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid

By Clarence Chu

  • Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) raised around US$281m in its Thailand IPO.
  • TCB is a commercial bank that focuses on providing business loans to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), nano loans and micro credits to merchants, and home loans for individual customers.
  • We had looked at the firm’s past performance and shared our thoughts on TCB’s valuation in earlier notes. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.

Indian Banks Screener: Bank of Baroda Remains the Value Pick, HDFC Bank Is the Quality Name

By Victor Galliano

  • We retain Bank of Baroda as the value Indian bank, despite its strong share performance, for its modest valuations, healthy ROE and further improvements in delinquency metrics
  • HDFC Bank remains out of favour with the market but we retain it as a buy, with its potential for medium term gains post-merger and its strong balance sheet
  • Axis bank remains on our watchlist; we remain negative on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio and limited progress on returns

SBFC Finance Lockup Expiry – Time to Cash in on Some Hefty Profits

By Ethan Aw

  • SBFC Finance Limited (SBFC IN) raised around US$131m in its India IPO, after the deal was priced at INR57/share. Its six-month lockup will expire on 12th Feb 2024. 
  • SBFC Finance is a systematically important, non-deposit taking non-banking finance company (NBFC-ND-SI), offering secured MSME Loans and Loans against Gold.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Crypto Moves #14 – It’s Not About What’s There, But What Isn’t

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last week, we stuck to our bullish market perspective, and it turned out to be a wise choice.
  • Yesterday’s celebration of our spot-on prediction resulted in today’s hangover of mine.
  • Interestingly, in Denmark, there is a custom of referring to Thursday as ‘little Friday’ when we go out drinking on those days.

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Most Read: L’Occitane, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde, Benefit One Inc, Pasona Group, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Woori Financial Group , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Thai Credit Bank PCL, Welbe Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Here We Go Again
  • China ETF Inflows & Impact: Concentrated, Then Diversified; Central Huijin Steps Up
  • Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One (2412) – We Have a Deal! Bumped Small
  • Pasona (2168) – Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San
  • TCM (570 HK): We’ve Been Here Before
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP) Prevails with a JPY2,173 Offer
  • Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies
  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: L&F (066970) Likely To Miss Out on Fast Entry in March
  • Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading – Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid
  • Welbe (6556 JP): Polaris Capital-Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,089


L’Occitane (973 HK): Here We Go Again

By David Blennerhassett

  • From 2018 onward, French beauty retailer L’Occitane (973 HK) has apparently drawn interest from the likes of Advent International and its controlling shareholder Chairman Reinold Geiger – amongst others. 
  • There is substance to these “Offers” – Geiger confirmed in August 2023 he was contemplating a conditional voluntary general Offer. He holds 72.65% of shares out according to the HKEx. 
  • The latest news, with no definitive source, is that Blackstone is mulling the possibility of teaming up with Geiger on a buyout.

China ETF Inflows & Impact: Concentrated, Then Diversified; Central Huijin Steps Up

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly US$37bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 2 January and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market. Central Huijin has announced their ETF buying.
  • Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including CSI 300, SSE50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, STAR50 and Chinext50 indices.
  • While the inflows were initially focused on the CSI 300, there has been a diversification recently with big inflows to the SSE50, CSI 500, CSI 1000 and ChiNext indices.

Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One (2412) – We Have a Deal! Bumped Small

By Travis Lundy

  • Post-Close, the Nikkei carried a breathless headline that Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) had agreed a deal for Pasona Group (2168 JP)‘s stake in Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)
  • Not long afterwards, TDNet Filings provided Benefit One results, a change to BeneOne’s Opinion on the M3 Offer, and Board Resolution to Support/Recommend DIL’s TOB, now at ¥2,173 and ¥1,526/share.
  • Looks like a done deal. And this will also likely delay the start of the DIL Bid to 26-28 February timeframe.

Pasona (2168) – Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced a TOB for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) having agreed a deal with Pasona Group (2168 JP) to sell into a buyback.
  • Pasona will get ¥1,526/share, and having agreed, it announced the expected special profit to be booked in the FY to 31 May 2024.
  • At ¥113.6bn on a consolidated basis (¥122.3bn on parent), less ¥1.165bn of associated costs, that’s ¥112.4bn at the lower end. That’s ¥2,870/share. Then there’s the rest of the business.

TCM (570 HK): We’ve Been Here Before

By David Blennerhassett

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) (“TCM”) is the traditional Chinese medicine arm of SASAC-managed China National Pharmaceutical Group Corporation (CNPGC), one of the largest healthcare groups in China.
  • By my reckoning, TCM has fielded three Offers in the past decade, all from Sinopharm Hongkong, an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of CNPGC and TCM’s major shareholder.
  • TCM was suspended “pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers” earlier today. The Real McCoy? A no-deal again from CNPGC/Sinopharm? And why didn’t the last Offers complete?

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP) Prevails with a JPY2,173 Offer

By Arun George

  • Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has recommended Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)’s revised offer of JPY2,173, a 2.4% and 90.1% premium to the previous offer and undisturbed price, respectively.
  • The Board and Pasona Group (2168 JP) secured the highest price. M3 Inc (2413 JP) tabled an alternative proposal but Pasona had concerns about the plan’s tax treatment.
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 31.6% minority acceptance rate, achievable due to the high premium and the competitive bidding process.  

Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies

By Sanghyun Park

  • Stake sales by Affinity and Bearing PE are attractive due to the absence of special partnerships with Shinhan Financial Group, indicating favorable exit potential at current stock prices.
  • KB Financial draws attention due to Carlyle’s ₩240B EB investment in 2020. Carlyle can now convert to shares at ₩48,000/share, yielding 37.08%.
  • Woori Financial is intriguing. IMM PE and Eugene PE hold stakes, investing ₩450B and ₩386B respectively. Their yields are 32.55% and 10.45% respectively. No constraints on divestment.

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: L&F (066970) Likely To Miss Out on Fast Entry in March

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
  • There could be up to four changes in the KOSPI 200 index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event including an intra-review fast entry change.

Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading – Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid

By Clarence Chu

  • Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) raised around US$281m in its Thailand IPO.
  • TCB is a commercial bank that focuses on providing business loans to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), nano loans and micro credits to merchants, and home loans for individual customers.
  • We had looked at the firm’s past performance and shared our thoughts on TCB’s valuation in earlier notes. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.

Welbe (6556 JP): Polaris Capital-Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,089

By Arun George

  • Welbe Inc (6556 JP) has recommended a Polaris Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer of JPY1,089 per share, a 30.0% premium to the undisturbed price (8 February). 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 46.67% ownership ratio. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.1% minority acceptance rate. While a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable. 

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Fortescue and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Fortescue, Rio Tinto, Wisetech Global
  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 9th): Hsbc, Wuxi Biologics, Aia


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 2nd): Fortescue, Rio Tinto, Wisetech Global

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, Rio Tinto, Wisetech Global.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 9th): Hsbc, Wuxi Biologics, Aia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Feb 9th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSBC (5 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Chinese Startup Raises $943 Million to Fund Race with Starlink and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Chinese Startup Raises $943 Million to Fund Race with Starlink


Chinese Startup Raises $943 Million to Fund Race with Starlink

By Caixin Global

  • Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology, a space tech startup backed by the Shanghai municipal government, has raised 6.7 billion yuan ($943 million) to fund the construction of a low-orbit satellite constellation that will provide broadband access to the internet
  • The Series A funding round was led by Shanghai Alliance Investment Ltd., an investment fund backed by the Shanghai government and a founding investor of Spacecom.
  • Other investors include CAS Investment Management Co. Ltd., Hengxu Capital, Guotai Junan Securities Co. Ltd. and CAS Star.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | ARM Flexes AI Muscles and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | ARM Flexes AI Muscles
  • China Property: The Red-Hot Whitelists
  • US G-SIBs Recover in Q4 2023, Facing Cloudy Outlook for 2024
  • Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, “The Big Shifts”
  • China Was World’s Largest Auto Exporter in 2023 After NEVs Drove Up Shipments
  • Water Tower Hour Recap – 2023 Review and 2024 Outlook


Ohayo Japan | ARM Flexes AI Muscles

By Mark Chadwick

  • Arm Holdings shares +47% on surprise earnings announcement, suggesting AI driving a recovery in the industry
  • Shimizu Corporation, Taisei Corporation and Toray lowered their forecasts due to rising material costs and deteriorating market conditions. NTT reported lower than expected profits. 
  • Subaru raised their forecast on higher US sales. Daifuku also revised up their forecast on strong EV investment.

China Property: The Red-Hot Whitelists

By Robert Ciemniak

  • We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.
  • There is plenty of local news about city-level project approvals and a growing number of developers announced how many of theirs have been whitelisted.
  • The big question is what proportion of the whitelisted projects will get the actual loans.

US G-SIBs Recover in Q4 2023, Facing Cloudy Outlook for 2024

By Raghav Chandra Mathur

  • US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the median credit risk faced by all US- banks.
  • The downward trend in the Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) for G-SIBs was largely driven by improvements in their equity performance, which has improved their financial position comparative to its peers.
  • As can be seen from Chart 1, although the G-SIB CCCI is trending lower since late September-2023, their aggregate credit profile is still close to the upper quartile credit risk of the US banking industry.

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, “The Big Shifts”

By Robert Ciemniak

  • In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight’s 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets
  • We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements
  • The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view this 3-minute version with a few highlights.

China Was World’s Largest Auto Exporter in 2023 After NEVs Drove Up Shipments

By Caixin Global

  • China was the world’s top auto exporter last year, cementing its position after overtaking Japan as No. 1 earlier in 2023, thanks largely to strong demand for new-energy vehicles (NEVs), increased deliveries to Russia and escalating domestic competition that forced automakers to accelerate their overseas expansion.
  • China’s auto exports surged 57.9% year-on-year to 4.91 million cars, as reported by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) last month.
  • By comparison, Japan exported 4.42 million vehicles in 2023, up 16% from a year earlier, according to data from the Japa

Water Tower Hour Recap – 2023 Review and 2024 Outlook

By Water Tower Research

  • We joined WTR’s Head of Business Development Tim Regan on this week’s Water Tower Hour Podcast to recap what happened in the chemicals and materials technology industries in 2023 and to provide an outlook for 2024.
  • Those interested can listen to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, or on our website.
  • WTR-CMI in 2023. With the majority of stocks in our index finishing 2023 in positive territory, the WTR-CMI Index managed to keep pace with the Russell 2000, appreciating 15%.

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Daily Brief Australia: Qantas Airways and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Qantas – 1H24 to Provide Evidence of Margin Control


Qantas – 1H24 to Provide Evidence of Margin Control

By Neil Glynn

  • For 1H24 we model EBITDAR of A$2,396m, ahead of Visible Alpha consensus of A$2,273m, which represents an EBITDAR/ASK 35% higher than 1H19.
  • 1H24 will be important to help us better understand “normalised” unit cost levels, with inflation high to date, in part due to a 17% capacity deficit in 2H23.
  • Qantas has seen comparable inflation to the US majors but considerably higher profitability. This should enable it to invest in product, operational and customer service improvements while protecting margins.

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Daily Brief ECM: Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading – Half the Deal Already Spoken For and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading – Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid
  • Agilus Diagnostics Limited Pre-IPO – Still Recovering from COVID
  • SBFC Finance Lockup Expiry – Time to Cash in on Some Hefty Profits
  • Entero Healthcare IPO – Profitability Not Out of the Woods Yet


Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading – Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid

By Clarence Chu

  • Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) raised around US$281m in its Thailand IPO.
  • TCB is a commercial bank that focuses on providing business loans to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), nano loans and micro credits to merchants, and home loans for individual customers.
  • We had looked at the firm’s past performance and shared our thoughts on TCB’s valuation in earlier notes. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.

Agilus Diagnostics Limited Pre-IPO – Still Recovering from COVID

By Sumeet Singh

  • Agilus Diagnostics Limited (SRLL IN) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Agilus Diagnostics Limited (Agilus) is a diagnostic testing service provider.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

SBFC Finance Lockup Expiry – Time to Cash in on Some Hefty Profits

By Ethan Aw

  • SBFC Finance Limited (SBFC IN) raised around US$131m in its India IPO, after the deal was priced at INR57/share. Its six-month lockup will expire on 12th Feb 2024. 
  • SBFC Finance is a systematically important, non-deposit taking non-banking finance company (NBFC-ND-SI), offering secured MSME Loans and Loans against Gold.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Entero Healthcare IPO – Profitability Not Out of the Woods Yet

By Clarence Chu

  • Entero Healthcare Solutions Limited (2294842D IN) is looking to raise US$193m in its India IPO.
  • Entero Healthcare Solutions (Entero) is a healthcare products distributor in India.
  • In this note, we will look at the RHP updates, undertake a peer comparison, and share our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Woori Financial Group , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Kakao Games and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies
  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: L&F (066970) Likely To Miss Out on Fast Entry in March
  • Kakao Games: Put Options on CB Likely to Drive Lower Share Price


Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies

By Sanghyun Park

  • Stake sales by Affinity and Bearing PE are attractive due to the absence of special partnerships with Shinhan Financial Group, indicating favorable exit potential at current stock prices.
  • KB Financial draws attention due to Carlyle’s ₩240B EB investment in 2020. Carlyle can now convert to shares at ₩48,000/share, yielding 37.08%.
  • Woori Financial is intriguing. IMM PE and Eugene PE hold stakes, investing ₩450B and ₩386B respectively. Their yields are 32.55% and 10.45% respectively. No constraints on divestment.

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: L&F (066970) Likely To Miss Out on Fast Entry in March

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
  • There could be up to four changes in the KOSPI 200 index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event including an intra-review fast entry change.

Kakao Games: Put Options on CB Likely to Drive Lower Share Price

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the biggest risks facing Kakao Games is nearly 500 billion won that it may need to pay to investors that exercise their put options on CB.
  • The full exercise of the put options on CBs (500 billion won) could represent nearly 24% of Kakao Games’ market cap at current prices. 
  • The worst case for Kakao Games would be for the company to pay nearly 500 billion won at once by the end of March. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Wynn Macau Ltd and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Wynn Macau Ltd


Morning Views Asia: Wynn Macau Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thailand: Thai Credit Bank PCL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading – Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid


Thai Credit Bank IPO Trading – Half the Deal Already Spoken For, the Other Half Should Be Liquid

By Clarence Chu

  • Thai Credit Bank PCL (3674238Z TB) raised around US$281m in its Thailand IPO.
  • TCB is a commercial bank that focuses on providing business loans to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), nano loans and micro credits to merchants, and home loans for individual customers.
  • We had looked at the firm’s past performance and shared our thoughts on TCB’s valuation in earlier notes. In this note, we will look at the trading dynamics.

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