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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: LG Chem Ltd, CPMC Holdings, Crude Oil, Anton Oilfield, Arrow Exploration , New Fortress Energy LLC, Tata Steel Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Corp Plans to Purchase 200 Billlion Won of LG Electronics and 300 Billion Won of LG Chem
  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK): The Battle Is Heating up as ORG Clears a Key Regulatory Hurdle
  • First Case of New Pre-Disclosure Rule: LG Corp Buys ₩300B LG Chem Shares
  • [ETP 2024/35] Crude Oil Slips Amid Demand Concerns; Nat-Gas Under Pressure from Oversupply
  • Anton Oilfield – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • CPMC (906 HK): SAMR Green Lights ORG’s Offer
  • Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Key horizontal wells outperforms expectations
  • New Fortress Energy Inc.: Will Its Expansion Into Fast Power Solutions For Data Centers Pay Off? – Major Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings, New World Development, Nickel Industries , Tata Steel Thailand


LG Corp Plans to Purchase 200 Billlion Won of LG Electronics and 300 Billion Won of LG Chem

By Douglas Kim

  • On 29 August, LG Corp announced that it plans to purchase about 200 billion won worth of LG Electronics and about 300 billion won worth of LG Chem.
  • After these share purchases, LG Corp’s stake in LG Electronics will increase from 30.47% to 31.59%, and its stake in LG Chem will increase from 30.06% to 31.29%.
  • LG Corp plans to purchases these shares starting 1 November 2024. The share purchases will be conducted in two stages and will be completed by 31 March 2025. 

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): The Battle Is Heating up as ORG Clears a Key Regulatory Hurdle

By Arun George

  • ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) has received SAMR clearance, the key regulatory hurdle, for its HK$7.21 voluntary offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK).
  • SAMR approval paves the way for the ORG precondition to be satisfied in September. Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer first close is on 3 September.
  • Changping Industrial has little choice but to revise its terms. It has a short window to seize the initiative by bumping its offer before ORG’s competing and higher offer opens. 

First Case of New Pre-Disclosure Rule: LG Corp Buys ₩300B LG Chem Shares

By Sanghyun Park

  • LG Corp has announced it will buy ₩300B of LG Chem shares during trading hours, marking the first use of the new 30-day advance notice rule.
  • LG Corp will buy LG Chem shares in two stages with 30-day advance notices. So, today’s announcement is a preliminary notice ahead of these 30-day advance notices.
  • This transaction’s flow impact on LG Chem doesn’t seem substantial. But this first two-stage advance notice could provide key insights into price impact patterns.

[ETP 2024/35] Crude Oil Slips Amid Demand Concerns; Nat-Gas Under Pressure from Oversupply

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 846k barrels, while analysts expected a 2.7 mb drawdown. Gasoline stocks dropped more than expected, while distillate inventories unexpectedly rose.
  • US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 23/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 33 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.1% above the 5-year seasonal average
  • Exxon expects global crude oil demand to remain around 100m bpd through 2050. Brokerages lowered target prices on Occidental and Halliburton.

Anton Oilfield – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Anton Oilfield’s H1/24 numbers were softer than expected in our view, with profitability growth lagging revenue improvement. Positively, there was a surge in new orders. This is the third consecutive quarter showing a significant rise in new orders. We expect the business’ positive momentum to continue in FY 2024. The large (3x revenue) and growing backlog support revenue visibility. The financial risk profile remains stable.


CPMC (906 HK): SAMR Green Lights ORG’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • ORG Technology (002701 CH), via the Offeror Huarui Fengquan Development Limited, has announced SAMR has given its approval. ORG still requires MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE to sign off. 
  • Interestingly, SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion Holdings, the competing/initial bidder for CPMC (906 HK), secured MOFCOM, NDRC, and SAFE before SAMR clearance. Champion’s regulatory pre-conditions took a little over seven months to secure.
  • What now? SAMR is China’s primary antitrust regulator (overlapping with NDRC). So this is positive for ORG. However, I’d still stick to ORG’s pre-condition long stop in terms of timing. 

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Key horizontal wells outperforms expectations

By Auctus Advisors

  • Arrow has now drilled 3 horizontal wells in Carrizales Norte.
  • The flow rates of the wells are exceeding our expectations.
  • The first CN horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) is being restricted to a current oil flow rate of 2,090 bbl/d with approximately 41% water cut.

New Fortress Energy Inc.: Will Its Expansion Into Fast Power Solutions For Data Centers Pay Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • New Fortress Energy (NFE) in its second quarter 2024 earnings, ended up performing below expectations, achieving $120 million in EBITDA against a targeted $275 million, primarily due to delays in deploying its FLNG 1 asset.
  • This delay had a substantial impact on the quarterly results but was offset by the project’s completion in July, which is now fully operational and expected to generate considerable free cash flow annually.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings, New World Development, Nickel Industries , Tata Steel Thailand

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Terumo Corp, Arvida, Oramed Pharmaceuticals , BrainAurora Medical Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering – Smaller Than It Looks
  • Terumo Placement – US$1.4bn Secondary Selldown, Buyback Should Aid Deal Dynamics
  • Terumo (4543 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Arvida (ARV NZ): 25th Sept Vote On Stonepeak’s Offer
  • Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Scheme Vote on 25 September
  • ORMP: Balance Sheet Strong, Potential Benefits of Investments, JVs, Buybacks
  • Pre-IPO BrainAurora Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering – Smaller Than It Looks

By Travis Lundy

  • On Thursday 29 August, Terumo Corp (4543 JP) announced a secondary offering where 7 major cross-holders would sell just under 5% of the shares outstanding to international investors. 
  • In recent quarters, Terumo has seen better consensus EPS growth than Peers in recent quarters, and Peers have underperformed. Right now, Terumo isn’t ‘cheap’ but consensus growth is strong.
  • This back-end demand in this case has enough moving parts that it bears a closer look. 

Terumo Placement – US$1.4bn Secondary Selldown, Buyback Should Aid Deal Dynamics

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise around US$1.36bn from selling ~5% stake in Terumo Corp (4543 JP).
  • While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Terumo (4543 JP): A US$1.4 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 73.2 million shares, worth JPY203 billion (US$1.4 billion) at the last close. 
  • The secondary offering facilitates the exit of large shareholders. Terumo also announced a buyback worth a maximum of JPY30 billion or 15 million shares.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 12 September (likely 10 September).

Arvida (ARV NZ): 25th Sept Vote On Stonepeak’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 22 July, Arvida (ARV NZ), a leading retirement living and aged care provider, announced a Scheme from Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 25th September. Expected implementation on the 13th November.
  • The Scheme Consideration of NZ$1.70/share is within the Independent Adviser’s valuation range at NZ$1.63 to NZ$1.94/share. Arvida’s directors unanimously recommend shareholders to vote in favour of the Scheme.

Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Scheme Vote on 25 September

By Arun George

  • The Arvida (ARV NZ) IE considers Stonepeak’s NZ$1.70 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.63 to A$1.94 valuation range. 
  • The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors’ consent and shareholder approval. The Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.
  • The offer is attractive and recent changes in substantial shareholders are benign. At the last close and for the 13 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.0%/15.2%. 

ORMP: Balance Sheet Strong, Potential Benefits of Investments, JVs, Buybacks

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • The company’s discussions with the FDA progress as ORMP plans to launch a Phase 3 oral insulin trial in the U.S. under a differentiated protocol aligned with the positive data from specific patient subgroups in a prior Phase 3 study of ORMD 0801.
  • ORMP hopes to leverage its analysis of the patient subgroups’ responses in order to fine-tune its development efforts under a revised protocol to advance its oral insulin therapy in diabetes management.
  • ORMP is also continuing discussions with Hefei Tianhui Biotech Co., Ltd. (HTIT) regarding their strategic JV to leverage their respective strengths and combined capabilities and technologies.

Pre-IPO BrainAurora Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • If the System or this treatment method is really effective and accepted by hospitals/doctors, under the coverage of medical insurance catalog already, why BrainAurora’s revenue scale is still so small?
  • CSRC questioned BrainAurora’s high selling expenses. Since either SG&A or R&D expenses already exceed revenue, BrainAurora would continue to suffer from losses. The Company hasn’t established a solid profit model.
  • BrainAurora completed a total of 7 rounds of financing, with a post investment valuation of RMB2.7 billion. However, it is difficult for BrainAurora to match this high valuation after IPO.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sino American Silicon Products, NVIDIA Corp, Dell Technologies , Huawei Technology, Red Cat Holdings , 4Paradigm and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Sino-American Silicon Early Look – Another Well Flagged GDR Offering in the Works
  • NVIDIA Delivers Stunning Q2 Results & Declares $50B Buyback; Yet Shares Plunge 8% Post Results
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Aug-2024): AI boosts MLCC demand, industry set to grow.
  • Huawei’s Smart Car Unit Valued $16 Billion After Investment From Avatr
  • Cedar Grove’s Paul Cerro on what makes $RCAT drones unique + odds for winning SRR contract
  • 4Paradigm: Near-Term Selling Pressure May Persist As IPO Lockup Ends Next Month


Sino-American Silicon Early Look – Another Well Flagged GDR Offering in the Works

By Clarence Chu

  • Sino American Silicon Products (5483 TT) is looking to raise at least US$338m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • In late Feb 2024, Sino-American Silicon (SAS) announced its board’s resolution to issue up to 55m common shares via a GDR offering.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.

NVIDIA Delivers Stunning Q2 Results & Declares $50B Buyback; Yet Shares Plunge 8% Post Results

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • NVIDIA’s Q2 revenue soared 122% to $30.04 billion, exceeding estimates, driven by unprecedented demand for AI-driven data center chips. 
  • The data center segment grew 154% YoY, generating $26.3 billion, reflecting NVIDIA’s strong position in AI hardware with major contributions from cloud providers. 
  • Despite approving a $50 billion stock buyback, NVIDIA’s shares fell 8% after-hours due to concerns over future chip supply and broader market trends, though the stock is up 150% YTD.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Aug-2024): AI boosts MLCC demand, industry set to grow.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • AI advancements driving demand for MLCCs, leading to growth in passive component industry and shaping future technology trends.
  • Super Micro Computer faces delay in annual report filing amid allegations of accounting manipulation, raising concerns in the tech market.
  • Industry predictions for Semicon India 2024 and updates from Intel and Sony on upgrades in car cockpits and price increase on PS5 due to rising component costs. Taiwan drone market facing potential delay due to China’s dominance in crucial modules.

Huawei’s Smart Car Unit Valued $16 Billion After Investment From Avatr

By Caixin Global

  • The valuation of Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd’s smart car unit has surged to 115 billion yuan ($16 billion) only seven months after its launch, following a recent investment.

  • Yinwang Intelligent Technology Co. Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huawei founded in January, has agreed to sell a 10% stake to Avatr Technology Inc., an electric vehicle (EV) startup backed by China’s state-owned automaker Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. Ltd. (000625.SZ -1.54%) and battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL). 

  • Avatr agreed to pay 11.5 billion yuan for the stake, with the payment to be made in three installments, contingent on conditions such as the introduction of Huawei’s smart car technologies and talent to Yinwang.

Cedar Grove’s Paul Cerro on what makes $RCAT drones unique + odds for winning SRR contract

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Paul Cerro, founder of the Cedar Grove Empire, discusses his investment in Redcat Holdings
  • Redcat is a US-based drone manufacturer specializing in unmanned drones for military purposes
  • Redcat is poised to potentially win a lucrative US Army contract, driving significant upside potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


4Paradigm: Near-Term Selling Pressure May Persist As IPO Lockup Ends Next Month

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Beijing-Based 4Paradigm shares have underperformed the Hang Seng Index (+4.3%) in 2024 with shares down ~20% year-to-date. IPO investors are down ~28%.
  • I expect near-term selling pressure on the stock as IPO lockup ends in September and at least 265M shares will be available for sale by the end of next month.
  • 4Paradigm has made considerable progress and with a clear profitability trajectory, the stock looks undervalued relative to peers in Mainland China and worldwide.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd, BYD, Zomato, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Health And Happiness (H&H), Lands’ End Inc, Dollar General, Build A Bear Workshop, Procter & Gamble Co, Guess? Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartworks Coworking Spaces Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • BYD (1211 HK): Revenue Up by 26% in 2Q24 Versus 4% in 1Q24, Buy
  • Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Zomato Needs F&O Membership to Avoid BSE 100 Deletion
  • After the TSE “Engagement,” It Is the Company Itself to Devise and Execute a Management Strategy
  • Health And Happiness (H&H) – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • LE: 2Q Preview; Momentum Continues to Build; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
  • Dollar General 2Q’24 Update
  • BBW: 2Q Review; Proving the Power of “Furry Friends;” Reiterate Buy, $41 PT
  • PG&E Corporation: Company Overview
  • GES: 2Q Review: Thinking Longer Term, But What About NT?; Lowering EPS, PT


Smartworks Coworking Spaces Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Smartworks Coworking Spaces Ltd (1742134D IN) is looking to raise about US$120m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, JM Fin, IIFL and Bob Caps.
  • Smartworks Coworking Spaces Limited (SCSL) is an office experience and managed campus platform. 
  • It focuses on leasing entire/ large, bare shell properties in prime locations from landlords and transforms them into fully serviced, aesthetically pleasing and tech-enabled campuses with daily-life and aspirational amenities.

BYD (1211 HK): Revenue Up by 26% in 2Q24 Versus 4% in 1Q24, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue increased by 26% in 2Q24, as sales volume grew strongly after March.
  • We believe the operating margin will be stable due to the ability of battery production.
  • We also believe the tariff penalty from Europe is not a concern in the long run, as BYD’s products have expanded to 77 countries.

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Zomato Needs F&O Membership to Avoid BSE 100 Deletion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • We see four expected ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six expected ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.
  • The BSE 100 handling rules for names without futures and options (F&O) sometimes punish companies that have enjoyed good share price rallies and Zomato could fall into such a trap.

After the TSE “Engagement,” It Is the Company Itself to Devise and Execute a Management Strategy

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since there was no difference in IR Disclosures between companies that increased valuations over past year and those that didn’t, it’s clear that improvement IR Disclosures alone won’t raise valuations.
  • Since many companies with large market capitalizations have high foreign ownership, overseas investor engagement has had a positive impact on their high return on capital.
  • TSE’s support for companies with small market capitalizations is a type of engagement that encourages companies whose engagement doesn’t reach them to think about their management strategies.

Health And Happiness (H&H) – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Health and Happiness International’s (H&H) H1/24 results were in line with expectations. The company reported weaker earnings and margins from its main Baby Nutrition & Care (BNC) business in Mainland China, amid structural industry challenges stemming from low birth rates in the country. That said, the weakness in BNC was partly offset by growth in the Adult Nutrition & Care (ANC) and Pet Nutrition & Care (PNC) segments. We note that ANC is now H&H’s largest revenue contributor, eclipsing BNC’s numbers. Going forward, we expect the company to continue expanding the ANC and PNC segments in Mainland China and beyond, while seeking to contain the revenue decline at BNC and maintain stable margins for the segment.

H&H has reduced inventory days and generated a small working-capital inflow, which led to positive FCF generation and net debt reduction. The company has adequate liquidity, following its successful refinancing activities in July.


LE: 2Q Preview; Momentum Continues to Build; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections with Lands’ End announcing 2QFY24 (July) results before the open on Thursday.
  • We believe Lands’ End management, under CEO Andrew McLean has continued to refocus the company on driving higher returns via lower discounting, fashion and product newness and innovation, reduced overall inventories and licensing non-core categories and relationships.
  • When combined with an increased emphasis on core winning categories such as swimwear and women’s bottoms in 2Q and shifting to outerwear in 2H, we believe Lands’ End is well positioned to drive near and longer term upside, and register returns we believe investors will find compelling.

Dollar General 2Q’24 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • I first wrote my Deep Dive on Dollar General back in August 2023.
  • While I wasn’t initially excited about owning a piece of the company despite the stock being down 40% from peak then, I changed my mind when the stock went down another ~25% following 2Q’23 earnings.
  • After today’s dismal earnings, the stock went down almost another 30% since 2Q’23 earnings. 

BBW: 2Q Review; Proving the Power of “Furry Friends;” Reiterate Buy, $41 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $41 price target for BBW and materially raising our projections after the company reported record 2Q results which beat Street expectations on both the top and bottom line, as Build-A-Bear stores registered solid results, while the high margin Commercial and International Franchising segment began their expected material ramp a little earlier (and with greater impact) than we projected.
  • Further, management continued to aggressively return capital to shareholders, purchasing 5% of BBW shares outstanding in FY24.
  • With an early Halloween driving strong initial 3Q results, we believe management reiterating FY24 guidance for top line growth in low to mid single digits and low singled digit pre-tax income could prove conservative, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $41 price target for BBW.

PG&E Corporation: Company Overview

By Baptista Research

  • PG&E Corporation shared the results of its performance for the second quarter of 2024, demonstrating steady progress across various fronts.
  • The company, known for supplying electricity and natural gas throughout California, reported core earnings per share of $0.31, culminating in a first-half total of $0.69.
  • This performance aligns with the reaffirmed 2024 earnings guidance of $1.33 to $1.37 per share, signifying an increase of at least 10% from the previous year.

GES: 2Q Review: Thinking Longer Term, But What About NT?; Lowering EPS, PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are lowering our projections and price target for GUESS?, but reiterating our Buy rating, after the company reported inline 2Q results, but lowered FY25 top and bottom line guidance, as the company continues to invest in marketing and infrastructure for their recently completed rag and bone acquisition and the launch of Guess Jeans, while the domestic store operations remain under pressure.
  • While we fully understand and agree with the potential of the material opportunities for rag and bone and Guess Jeans to leverage the company’s global and licensing infrastructure in the longer term, we believe investor frustration in the near term will be a key theme.
  • That said, with the GES dividend yield of approximately 6% and with our belief the upside potential of both rag and bone and Guess Jeans will become increasingly apparent relatively quickly, we are maintaining our Buy rating, even after lowering our FY25 projections below management guidance.

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Daily Brief ECM: Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Another US$800m+ Deal and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Another US$800m+ Deal, This Time by the Correct Co-Founder
  • Niva Bupa Health Insurance Pre-IPO – Strong GWP Growth, However Some Risks Remain
  • IGI (India) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery – The Potential Risks and Concerns Brought by the Business Model


Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Another US$800m+ Deal, This Time by the Correct Co-Founder

By Sumeet Singh

  • InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)’s co-founder, Rakesh Gangwal, aims to raise around US$850m via selling around 3.8% stake in Indigo.
  • He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with his co-founder Rahul Bhatia. He has sold many times before.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Niva Bupa Health Insurance Pre-IPO – Strong GWP Growth, However Some Risks Remain

By Clarence Chu

  • Niva Bupa Health Insurance (1226871D IN) is looking to raise US$360m from its upcoming India IPO. The IPO will consist of both primary and secondary shares.
  • Niva Bupa Health Insurance (Niva Bupa) is a health insurance firm. Its portfolio consists of health (including retail and group), personal accident, and travel insurance.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

IGI (India) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • IGI (India) Limited (2261751D IN) is looking to raise about US$480m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Kotak, MS, and SBI Caps.
  • IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
  • Its primary business is in provision of services related to certification and accreditation of natural diamonds, laboratory-grown diamonds, studded jewellery and coloured stones as well as offering of educational programs.

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, JM Financial, Jefferies, Nomura and JPM. 
  • Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (Inventurus from hereon) is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, offering a care enablement platform which assists physician enterprises in the US, Canada and Australia. 
  • Its physician-oriented platform includes clinical documentation solutions, patient scheduling assistance, automated prescription refill solutions and clinical document management, amongst others. 

Pre-IPO Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery – The Potential Risks and Concerns Brought by the Business Model

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The franchise model of Zhou Liu Fu is the biggest performance contributor, which is also the main reason for the Company’s rapid expansion and high gross profit margin.  
  • However, the CSRC questioned the rationality of franchise model and thus rejected its A-share IPO. We think the high revenue growth/profit margin may not be sustainable in the long term.
  • Pre-IPO post-investment valuation was approximately 7.407 billion yuan. Zhou Liu Fu has applied for H-Share full circulation, which may put pressure on stock price performance after the lockdown period expires.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nvidia -5% After Results and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nvidia -5% After Results
  • Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints
  • US Lags Behind China and Europe in EV Charging Infrastructure
  • # 51 India Insight: Zee-Sony Settle Dispute, NSE Files for IPO, HUL INR 962 Crores GST Notice
  • What Is the Implication if RMB Appreciates 10%?
  • China’s Duty-Free Haven Hands Out $3.4 Million Vouchers to Spur Spending


Ohayo Japan | Nvidia -5% After Results

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks retreated on Wednesday as investors awaited Nvidia’s crucial earnings report. The Nasdaq Composite led declines, falling 1.12%
  • Nvidia reported strong Q4 earnings, beating expectations with $30.04 billion in revenue and $0.68 EPS.
  • Super Micro Computer’s stock plunged 19% after announcing a delay in filing its annual report, following accusations of “accounting manipulation” by Hindenburg Research

Japan Morning Connection: NVDA Disappoints

By Andrew Jackson

  • NVDA disappoints market expectations and trades -7% after-market, setting a very weak tone for Japanese SPE and tech related names to start.
  • The bad news for 4911 Shiseido continues, with the tone out of a small sell-side meeting held yesterday after-market pointed to further earnings downside.
  • Expect a continued rotation into value and domestic defensives as the market pivots away from AI/tech with plenty of room for profit taking after the recent rebound.

US Lags Behind China and Europe in EV Charging Infrastructure

By Garvit Bhandari

  • US considerably lags behind China and Europe which had 3.2 million and 0.9 million public charging points at the end of July 2024. US had just 180,136.
  • US aims to reach 500,000 public EV chargers by 2030. This compared with EU’s target of 3.5 million chargers by the same timeframe.
  • EV adoption remains slow in the U.S. impacted by pricing and lack of infrastructure.

# 51 India Insight: Zee-Sony Settle Dispute, NSE Files for IPO, HUL INR 962 Crores GST Notice

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Zee and Sony Amicably Settle Disputes Over Failed Merger, Withdraw Claims
  • NSE Files for SEBI NOC to Gain Approval for Long-Awaited IPO Listing
  • ReNew and Microsoft Forge 437.6 MW Green Energy Pact to Advance Carbon-Negative Goals

What Is the Implication if RMB Appreciates 10%?

By Jacob Cheng

  • News report today that RMB may appreciate 10% due to potential USD weakness and capital inflow of USD1trn back into China, causing upward pressure of the currency
  • The capital inflow comes from potential unwinding of carry trade, as Chinese companies borrow CNY at low interest rate and place capital in USD deposit, at higher interest rate
  • We think this scenario is unlikely unless China economy is showing strong recovery.  But, if this happens, it will hurt export but positive for HK-listed Chinese property stocks

China’s Duty-Free Haven Hands Out $3.4 Million Vouchers to Spur Spending

By Caixin Global

  • China’s tropical island province of Hainan is to hand out 24 million yuan ($3.4 million) in spending vouchers to encourage tourists to splash out and reverse falling retail sales in the duty-free haven.
  • The provincial government said it will distribute the vouchers, including 9 million yuan to buy airline tickets and 15 million yuan for tax-free shopping, between late August and October.
  • The initial batch of flight ticket vouchers will apply to Hainan Airlines’ services, but other carriers can request to join the program, the government said.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading “Cheap” and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading “Cheap”
  • Hyundai Motor’s Value-Up Disclosure: Trading Implications from Release Timing & Pref-Skewed Buyback
  • Huafa Props (982 HK): A Quick Word On Voting
  • Alpha Generation from the New Entries in the ‘KOSDAQ Rising Stars’
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: One Add & A Few Deletes
  • HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ): Global Index Deletion Following IDX Segment Shift
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: DSM Addition Unlikely; Engie Could Replace Kering (US$1bn+ Flows)
  • Impact of Woori Financial’s Tongyang Life Acquisition Below ₩1.5T on Value-Up Flows
  • Misunderstood Takeover Target
  • Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Goh’s Hybrid Offer


Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading “Cheap”

By David Blennerhassett


Hyundai Motor’s Value-Up Disclosure: Trading Implications from Release Timing & Pref-Skewed Buyback

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hyundai’s TSR target is 35%+ (dividends plus buybacks), up 10 percentage points from previous years. They’ve also set a new annual dividend of ₩10,000, paid evenly quarterly.
  • Hyundai’s Value-Up targets may not fully meet market expectations, but the key is the timing. By aligning early with government policies, Hyundai has reduced risks and secured investment flow.
  • Hyundai plans a pref-skewed buyback, likely continuing this approach as retiring preferred shares first may boost ROE.

Huafa Props (982 HK): A Quick Word On Voting

By David Blennerhassett

  • Huafa Property (982 HK) shareholders overwhelmingly approved (99.52% [of shares present and/or via proxy] FOR; 0.48% AGAINST) the Scheme yesterday. This part was expected. The headcount test was less certain.
  • The final headcount tally, on a look-through basis into HKSCC Nominees by CCASS Participants, was 111 FOR, 14 AGAINST. Again, a pretty clear pass.
  • Normally a Scheme Vote, if approved, wouldn’t warrant a full note. But when the headcount test is involved, it is worthwhile understanding the mechanics.

Alpha Generation from the New Entries in the ‘KOSDAQ Rising Stars’

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the potential alpha generation from new entries in the “KOSDAQ Rising Stars.”
  • For the KOSDAQ Rising Stars New Entries in 2023, there was a massive outperformance. Of course, we want to reiterate that past performance is NOT indicative of future performance.
  • On 28 August 2024, KRX provided a list of 39 KOSDAQ Rising Stars companies (including 29 existing ones and 10 new companies).

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: One Add & A Few Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • With 2 days left to review cutoff, there could be 1 inclusion and 3 deletions for the index at the September rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a round-trip trade of A$212m.
  • The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.

HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ): Global Index Deletion Following IDX Segment Shift

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ) has been announced as a deletion from the Large cap of the Global Index at the September 2024 review.
  • The reason for the security’s removal is due to a change of listing from an eligible to an ineligible exchange segment of the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX).
  • Forecasted passive fund supply is ~$24.6m and ~11.9 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024. The significant ADV is because of the security’s low free float.

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: DSM Addition Unlikely; Engie Could Replace Kering (US$1bn+ Flows)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
  • In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s estimation of the latest ranks of potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in September 2024.
  • The rankings will be finalized at the end of this week. Currently, we see one expected ADD/DEL but the expectations can change since there are three more trading days left.

Impact of Woori Financial’s Tongyang Life Acquisition Below ₩1.5T on Value-Up Flows

By Sanghyun Park

  • Woori Financial’s value-up plan centers on improving the CET1 ratio to boost shareholder returns, with the total return ratio directly tied to the CET1 ratio.
  • The market believed that if the acquisition cost stayed under ₩1.9 trillion, the CET1 ratio impact would be minimal, potentially leading to mid-term gains from non-banking profits.
  • Though this may hurt Tongyang Life’s short-term stock, it opened the door for local institutional investors, especially NPS, to consider Woori Financial for value-up investments.

Misunderstood Takeover Target

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Allfunds Group, a global WealthTech firm born in Spain, attracts market interest, but no firm offers yet. Its top two shareholders (48.1%) are open to selling at the right price.
  • Since listing, Allfunds’ total return has been -59%, driven by interest rate hikes, major distributors shifting to low-risk assets, stock overhang from top shareholders, and low share liquidity.
  • ChatGPTAllfunds’ forward P/E of 12.9x (vs. peers at 18.6x) and 9.5% FCF yield undervalue its strong business model, momentum, market share gains, robust cash conversion, and solid balance sheet.

Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Goh’s Hybrid Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Goh Peng Ooi, the Executive Chairman and founder, has made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 25.9% in Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) not held.
  • The S$0.36/share cash Offer for the software solutions play is a 20% premium to last close. Or a 31.9% premium to the 12-month VWAP.
  • The quirk in the terms is the option to receive A$0.30/share (in cash), plus one new redeemable preference share in the Offeror, to be redeemed at A$0.18/share after five years. 

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Daily Brief Credit: SJM Holdings – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SJM Holdings – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Meituan, Yuexiu Property


SJM Holdings – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

SJM Holdings’ Q2/24 results were soft. The company reported flat GGR q-o-q (outpacing the industry’s slight decline), supported by the continued ramp-up of GLP. This was partly offset by a weaker showing at GL. Positively, the drag from excess staff costs continued to shrink. In addition, management disclosed that SJM’s market share grew further in July and August, which could support continued earnings outperformance in Q3.

That said, there was little net debt reduction and the company’s pace of deleveraging was slower than peers. Still, liquidity remains adequate, and we do not foresee material refinancing risks for the company.


Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Meituan, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Eternal Chop and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Eternal Chop


Eternal Chop

By Delphi Digital

  • Powell’s Pivot: A New Era for Crypto Markets as Interest Rates Shift. Discover how the Fed’s changing stance may ignite new demand in the crypto market.
  • BTC’s Rally: Can It Sustain Its Momentum Amidst Shifting Economic Policies? Explore the critical market movements and the implications of BTC’s recent surge.
  • Stablecoin Growth: The Catalyst for the Next Crypto Boom? Understand the vital role of stablecoins and credit in the future of crypto market growth.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Seven & I (3382) | Strategic Refocus and Acquisition Interest Signal Major Upside Potential and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I (3382) | Strategic Refocus and Acquisition Interest Signal Major Upside Potential
  • Alibaba Group (9988-HK): Positive Technical Analysis Signals
  • Pinduoduo: Anticipating Slower Growth And Potential Profit Dip
  • Hyundai Motor Announces Its Corporate Value Up Policies
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)
  • [Pinduoduo (PDD US, BUY, TP US$160) TP Change]: Investment Means Continued High Growth
  • [Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$50) Rating Change]: Beyond the Difficult Time…Upgrade to BUY
  • Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)
  • All Eyes on Nvidia
  • IOS18 Unveils Major Updates, Delayed AI Features Paving Path for a Significant Upgrade Cycle


Seven & I (3382) | Strategic Refocus and Acquisition Interest Signal Major Upside Potential

By Mark Chadwick

  • 7&I Holdings is reviewing a confidential acquisition proposal from $ATD, highlighting significant potential for value creation through strategic refocusing on its core convenience store business
  • ValueAct Capital previously criticized 7&I as an “unfocused holding company,” urging a focus on core assets, estimating a potential value of ¥4,200 per share.
  • Our valuation suggests 7&I could reach ¥3,700 per share, driven by the repricing of its overseas CVS business; $ATD will need a strong offer.

Alibaba Group (9988-HK): Positive Technical Analysis Signals

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Despite a negative share price reaction following its 1Q2025 earnings report, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) seems to have entered an earnings upgrade cycle due to improved profitability expectations.
  • Despite recent share price pressure, due to negative industry readthroughs from peers, Alibaba Group’s near-term momentum indicators are displaying bullish signals.
  • Alibaba Group trades at more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historic average forward PE ratio, and near the lowest level it has ever been.

Pinduoduo: Anticipating Slower Growth And Potential Profit Dip

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • PDD Holdings (PDD US) shares fell 28% on Monday after a 3% revenue miss, with shares dropping an additional 4% yesterday.
  • The results themselves weren’t bad enough to justify such a sharp price reaction.
  • However, management’s comments on slower growth and a potential drop in profits triggered a significant sell-off.

Hyundai Motor Announces Its Corporate Value Up Policies

By Douglas Kim

  • On 28 August, Hyundai Motor announced its Corporate Value Up policies, including a minimum dividend per share this year targeting 10,000 won per share for common shares. 
  • Hyundai Motor plans to implement a shareholder return policy based on a total shareholder return (TSR) of 35% or more from 2025 to 2027.
  • Hyundai Motor’s Corporate Value Up plan of providing TSR of 35% or more from 2025 to 2027 is certainly better than what it provided in the past three years (26%). 

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • July outbound travel (and seat capacity) fnally approached pre-Covid19 levels
  • Domestic air travel demand also showed modest Y/Y improvement in July 
  • We still like Trip.com on improving profitability, BUY with US$55 target

[Pinduoduo (PDD US, BUY, TP US$160) TP Change]: Investment Means Continued High Growth

By Ying Pan

  • PDD reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating income and GAAP net income (3.9%), (1.2%) and (4.4%) below our estimates, and (2.9%), 12% and 16% above consensus. 
  • We believe PDD’s upgrade in its ecosystem and infrastructure is long overdue. Such investment would support its growth, especially in overseas. 
  • Trading at 6.4x 2025 PE, we believe PDD is undervalued. We reiterate BUY and place it as TOP PICK of China’s e-commerce sector.

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$50) Rating Change]: Beyond the Difficult Time…Upgrade to BUY

By Eric Wen

  • TCOM reported C2Q24 revenue in-line with our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income also in-line with our est./cons., and non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 18%/40%,mainly due to rising equity income
  • Robust int’l growth offset weakness in domestic. With services possibly included in the government consume subsidy in C2H24/1H25 and Rmb’s appreciation.
  • We feel it is time to buy TCOM again, TP to US$50 from US$42.

Earnings Preview (Nvidia and Marvell)

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • It’s about to be primetime for the AI semiconductor trade, and for the first time in a long time (maybe ever), I wanted to write an earnings preview. It might be the first time (ever) and hopefully the last time.
  • Two critical companies report this week. I’ll start with Marvell, the less important but the one I like, and then talk about some exciting dynamics at Nvidia that could lead to volatility and why it might not even matter.
  • Marvell has always been a favorite of this newsletter. I won’t lie; I root for the hometown on this one. Inphi was my first paid post, and it worked out with a buyout by Marvell only two weeks later.

All Eyes on Nvidia

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • This Wednesday, after the Wall Street close, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will release its second-quarter figures, concluding the current earnings season. The stock has returned 155% YTD.
  • Nvidia’s results will be crucial in determining whether its stock recovery continues (+25% since its August 5 low and 11.8% below its all-time high of $140.76 on June 20).
  • Historically, when Nvidia’s earnings and guidance have been strong, its stock has rebounded by c. 30% and over in four occasions.

IOS18 Unveils Major Updates, Delayed AI Features Paving Path for a Significant Upgrade Cycle

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • IOS 18 beta offers new Home Screen and Control Centre customization; AI features like Advanced Siri Capabilities delayed until iOS 18.1, set to arrive later this year. 
  • Morgan Stanley forecasts Apple will ship five hundred million iPhones over two years, driven by the AI-powered Apple Intelligence, with a 4%-5% growth in iPhone average selling prices. 
  • Only 15% of current Apple devices support new AI features, pushing a significant upgrade cycle; 24% of iPads are compatible, suggesting a mini-upgrade cycle in the tablet market.

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