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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Cathay Pacific Airways, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Innoscience, Nisshinbo Holdings, Sanyo Trading, Tokyu Construction, World Holdings, Harmonic Drive Systems, Mastech Digital and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:9.90HKD): Decent Results, Stay the Course
  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH): Cheap Valuations on Negative Sentiments
  • Innoscience Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update
  • Tokyu Construction (1720 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • World Holdings (2429 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
  • Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • MHH: Mastech Reports 6% Sequential Growth and Record Gross Margins Resulting in a 75% Increase in Non-GAAP EPS


Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:9.90HKD): Decent Results, Stay the Course

By Mohshin Aziz

  • 1HFY24 net profit declined -15% YoY to HK$3.4 billion, in-line with consensus 
  • Interim dividend of HK$0.20/share, at 38% payout ratio. Typically, Cathay pays 50% payout ratio, and we can expect final dividend to be much larger
  • Maintain BUY with target price of HK$9.90 (+26% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP). 

Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH): Cheap Valuations on Negative Sentiments

By Mohshin Aziz

  • 2Q24 results were decent, with 13% YoY growth in net income to CNY12.4 billion, but share price continues to drift down as market fears western nations resistance to Chinese EVs 
  • Operationally, things are just fine , CATL will add 153GWh capacity in 2H24 across China, Europe, and the U.S.A. – and they are finding solution around the 2026 new tariffs  
  • Our fair value of CNY253 (+43% UPSIDE) is derived by 23x 2024 PE ratio, which is 1SD below its historical mean. CATL is currently trading at exceptionally low valuations

Innoscience Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Innoscience (1992276D CH) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, and CMB International.
  • Innoscience is a Chinese-based manufacturer of Gallium Nitride (GaN) semiconductor products. It offers various types of GaN products, including GaN wafers, GaN discrete chips, GaN ICs and GaN modules. 
  • It tailors its solutions to customers in various industries such as consumer electronics, renewable energy and industrial applications, automotive electronics and data centers.

Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales fell JPY29.3bn (-10.9%) YoY; consolidation of Hitachi Kokusai Electric increased Wireless and Communications sales, TMD Group transfer decreased sales.
  • Operating profit declined JPY5.3bn (-44.0%) YoY; increased in Wireless and Communications, declined in Micro Devices and Real Estate.
  • Q1 FY12/24: sales JPY130.8bn (-9.2% YoY), operating profit JPY8.1bn (-36.1% YoY); Q2: sales JPY109.3bn (-12.8% YoY), operating loss JPY1.4bn.

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated sales for cumulative Q3 FY09/24 increased 6.4% YoY to JPY95.9bn, marking a record high.
  • Consolidated operating profit for cumulative Q3 FY09/24 rose 13.1% YoY to JPY5.9bn, with OPM improving by 0.3pp YoY.
  • Recurring profit increased 30.2% YoY, driven by higher operating profit and growth in foreign exchange gains.

Tokyu Construction (1720 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/25 revenue was JPY55.3bn (-12.1% YoY) with an operating loss of JPY953mn and recurring loss of JPY482mn.
  • Non-consolidated revenue was JPY51.3bn (-12.8% YoY) with gross profit at JPY3.5bn (-10.3% YoY) and gross profit margin at 5.7%.
  • Non-consolidated orders totaled JPY40.6bn (+16.5% YoY) with Building Construction orders at JPY19.8bn (-9.2% YoY) and Civil Engineering orders at JPY20.8bn (-59.3% YoY).

World Holdings (2429 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY110.8bn (+22.5% YoY), operating profit decreased to JPY2.4bn (-36.0% YoY), and net income fell to JPY737mn (-63.4% YoY).
  • Products HR business revenue was JPY53.1bn (+10.8% YoY), segment profit was JPY1.2bn (-28.8% YoY), and exceeded initial targets.
  • Real Estate business revenue was JPY13.6bn (-6.1% YoY), segment profit was JPY308mn (-75.6% YoY), with strategic acquisitions boosting rental income.

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/24 sales declined 13.4% YoY to JPY13.0bn, with an operating loss of JPY238mn and net loss of JPY283mn.
  • Orders increased 38.6% YoY to JPY7.4bn, driven by industrial robots and semiconductor production equipment, particularly in the Chinese market.
  • The company targets FY03/27 sales of JPY90.0bn and operating profit of JPY15.0bn, with significant capital investment and R&D expenditure planned.

MHH: Mastech Reports 6% Sequential Growth and Record Gross Margins Resulting in a 75% Increase in Non-GAAP EPS

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Mastech Digital, based outside Pittsburgh, PA is an IT staffing business with a data and analytics, consulting, and project management service serving blue-chip customers in the US.
  • Both businesses have been affected by the rapid decline in the economy and IT hiring as customers pull back.
  • The company trades well below its peers and we expect stock price appreciation when it returns to growth aided by stock buybacks.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, Entree Resources, Ecovyst, Shell PLC, Iron Ore, Lake Victoria Gold , Sakai Chemical Industry Co, BP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed
  • Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target
  • Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500
  • ECVT: Another Pushout in Story, PT to $12
  • [Earnings Review] Shell Surpasses Earnings Forecasts with Strong Upstream and Retail Gains
  • Champion Iron Q1 2025: Inline, High-Grade Iron Ore on Critical Minerals List in Canada
  • LVG: Mining License Renewal – Long Runway Ahead
  • Sakai Chemical Industry Co (4078 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • BP p.l.c.: Enhanced Focus on Natural Gas and Renewable Energy Paying Off? – Major Drivers


Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed

By Suhas Reddy

  • Crude oil prices ended Monday lower but fell less than other commodities and equities. WTI dropped 0.79% and Brent fell 0.66%, while the S&P 500 declined 3%.
  • Crude oil prices were supported by rising Middle East tensions, the shutdown of Libya’s largest oil field, and a sharp decline in the DXY.
  • Henry Hub futures fell 1.27% due to surplus stockpiles, cooler US weather forecasts, and the impact of Hurricane Debby.

Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven


Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

By Suhas Reddy

  • The milder drop in crude oil prices was reflected in energy stocks on Monday, with most major oil and gas companies, outperforming the S&P 500.
  • Most of the oil companies’ volume PCR was elevated on Monday and Friday, with Haliburton’s volume PCR exceptionally high at 3.66 on Monday (5/Aug).
  • On 5/Aug, all major energy companies saw a rise in implied volatility due to recession fears, except Shell, whose IV dropped slightly to 20.01% from 20.28% on Friday.

ECVT: Another Pushout in Story, PT to $12

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ECVT continues to experience setbacks to its operations this year. The latest from its joint venture, Zeolyst, having renewable fuel customers delay catalyst orders.   
  • The headwinds ECVT has dealt with in the past year creates pressure on investor sentiment and the Company now having to reassure investors it can sustain generating free cash flow.
  • The investor story that shifted out to 2025 remains unchanged. We believe ECVT’s stock price currently reflects investor unrest as to the possibility of ECVT’ 2025 prospects.  

[Earnings Review] Shell Surpasses Earnings Forecasts with Strong Upstream and Retail Gains

By Suhas Reddy

  • Shell’s Q2 revenue dipped 0.2% YoY, but net profit increased by 12.2%. Both revenue and EPS surpassed analyst expectations by 7.4% and 5.1%, respectively.
  • Shell cut total debt by 10.5% YoY to USD 74.5 billion, with net debt down 5% YoY to USD 38.3 billion.
  • Shell recorded a USD 708 million impairment from selling its Singapore refinery and another USD 783 million from pausing construction on a European biofuel plant.

Champion Iron Q1 2025: Inline, High-Grade Iron Ore on Critical Minerals List in Canada

By Sameer Taneja

  • Champion Iron (CIA AU) reported an inline Q1 FY25, with revenue/earnings up 57%/308% YoY owing to a 34% YoY volume increase and better pricing. 
  • The company reiterated its guidance for 15 million tons of production and equivalent sales. It is working on improving logistics after forest fires and other port/rail issues. 
  • The stock trades at 8.5x PE and a 6% dividend yield for FY25e ( assuming iron ore prices of USD 108/ton with a 15 USD/ton premium on 65% Fe). 

LVG: Mining License Renewal – Long Runway Ahead

By Atrium Research

  • LVG announced the Imwelo Mining License has conditionally been approved for a 10-year renewal, providing runway for LVG to execute.
  • On July 18th, the Company announced the receipt of the Tax Clearance Certificate, the final requirement for transferring the Imwelo Mining Licence to LVG.
  • Once the Mining License is officially transferred, it will trigger the second tranche of investment from the TAIFA group.

Sakai Chemical Industry Co (4078 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased 3.7% YoY to JPY21.9bn, with operating profit up 71.2% YoY to JPY1.6bn.
  • Chemicals segment, accounting for 90.3% of revenue, saw significant growth in electronic materials (+44.7% YoY).
  • Operating profit from electronic materials recovered to JPY340mn, approximately 6.3x YoY, aiding overall profit rise.

BP p.l.c.: Enhanced Focus on Natural Gas and Renewable Energy Paying Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BP’s recently disclosed quarterly financial results reflect a robust operational performance characterized by high plant reliability and refining availability.
  • During the quarter, upstream plant reliability was reported at 96%, and refining availability matched this figure, fostering a conducive environment for strong production and operational efficiency.
  • This operational reliability underpinned the company’s financial performance, with BP generating substantial operating cash flow of $8.1 billion.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Softbank Group, Fuji Soft Inc, Nokia OYJ, Palantir Technologies , KT Corp, Asustek Computer, Black Sesame Technologies, Apple , Airtel Africa PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Rumoured KKR-Sponsored MBO
  • EURO STOXX 50: Exclusion by Sector
  • Is Palantir Technologies The AI Powerhouse That Can Save The Day?
  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] KKR Reportedly Plans Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Relief from Activist Pressure
  • Initial Thoughts on the K Bank IPO
  • PC Monitor: Promising Uptake of Microsoft Copilot and AI Services; Remain Structurally Long
  • Black Sesame IPO Trading – Lackluster Demand, Combined with Bad Timing
  • Apple Reports Record Revenue and Earnings Growth, IPhone Sales Surprise Despite China Market Slump
  • Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF) – Wednesday, May 8, 2024


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Rumoured KKR-Sponsored MBO

By Arun George

  • Nikkei and Bloomberg report that Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) will be privatised through a KKR-sponsored MBO at a price just below JPY9,000, a 21.8% premium to the last close.
  • The rumoured privatisation proposal is the culmination of a sale process initiated by 3D Investment Partners, the largest shareholder, in September 2023.
  • The Board will meet tomorrow to discuss the proposal. The rumoured offer represents an all-time high and a knockout bid, suggesting a done deal if a binding proposal materialises.

EURO STOXX 50: Exclusion by Sector

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Cap Gemini SA (CAP FP) is estimated to be excluded from the selection list in the long-run due to being pushed way above 60% coverage in the Technology sector.
  • Merck KGaA (MRK GR) switches between in and out of the selection list because it fluctuates close to the 60% coverage of the Health Care sector.
  • Nokia OYJ (NOKIA FH) has a higher probability of deletion from SX5E if Merck KGaA (MRK GR)  qualifies to the selection list. Forecasted passive fund supply is  ~15 ADV.   

Is Palantir Technologies The AI Powerhouse That Can Save The Day?

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir Technologies continues to establish itself as a leading force in the world of data analytics and artificial intelligence.
  • The company’s recent financial results reveal a mixed but overall positive picture, showcasing strong revenue growth and solidifying its position as a key player in both the government and commercial sectors.
  • Palantir’s focus on leveraging AI to solve complex problems at scale is clearly paying off, with impressive strides in revenue and customer acquisition.

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] KKR Reportedly Plans Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Relief from Activist Pressure

By Travis Lundy

  • Last year into early 2024, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) – partially at the prodding of 3D Investment Partners – took in 4 subs and conducted a strategic review.
  • In January, I explored the situation here suggesting the stock had run, FujiSoft needed to liquidate more assets, but a PE firm would look at a valuation of ¥600bn.
  • Last night, the Nikkei reported that US PE Firm KKR planned to take Fuji Soft private with a TOB valued at ¥600bn. Limit up will take us to ¥560bn+.

Initial Thoughts on the K Bank IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an update on the K Bank IPO, which is more likely in 1H 2025. K Bank is one of the largest Internet-only banks in Korea. 
  • A successful IPO of K Bank could have a positive impact on KT Corp (030200 KS) which is the indirectly the largest shareholder of K Bank. 
  • K Bank had total operating income of 51.5 billion won (up 328% YoY) in 1Q 2024. Operating margin improved materially from 5.7% in 1Q 2023 to 19.5% in 1Q 2024.

PC Monitor: Promising Uptake of Microsoft Copilot and AI Services; Remain Structurally Long

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Given market concerns that AI is overhyped and not yet delivering sufficient value, we analyze Microsoft’s Copilot disclosures and examine signs of AI services traction among corporate clients.
  • Signs indicate that Copilot is gaining substantial traction with corporate clients, adding value to software development, business operations, and healthcare documentation functions.
  • The number of organizations paying for MSFT’s AI services is expanding rapidly. We view this as a promising indicator of increased AI adoption and substantial value creation.

Black Sesame IPO Trading – Lackluster Demand, Combined with Bad Timing

By Clarence Chu

  • Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) raised around US$133m in its Hong Kong IPO, after pricing its IPO at the low-end.
  • Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Apple Reports Record Revenue and Earnings Growth, IPhone Sales Surprise Despite China Market Slump

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Apple achieved a record $85.78B in Q3 revenue, up 5% YoY, and earnings per share rose 11% to $1.40, exceeding expectations and reflecting strong financial health. 
  • IPhone revenue was $39.3B, surpassing the $38.81B estimate. Despite a 1% YoY decline, iPhone sales showed growth on a constant currency basis, contributing significantly to overall revenue.
  • Services revenue reached a record $24.2B, growing 14% YoY. The gross margin was 46.3%, slightly above estimates, despite challenges from foreign exchange and product mix changes.

Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF) – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Airtel Africa is undervalued and has potential for upside growth
  • Company has shown strong performance in revenue and EBITDA growth despite challenges
  • Potential IPO of mobile money business could unlock more value for shareholders

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Health Care: China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma, Celltrion Inc, Stryker Corp, Bristol Myers Squibb Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • CR Sanjiu (000999.CH) To Acquire Tasly Pharma (600535.CH) – SOEs Have High Enthusiasm for TCM Assets
  • Celltrion (068270 KS): 2Q24 Result- Biosimilar Sales Roar; Operating Profit Recovers Sequentially
  • Stryker Corporation: The Artelon Acquisition
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: Will The Enhanced Focus on Cell Therapy and Innovative Cancer Treatments Pay Off? – Major Drivers


CR Sanjiu (000999.CH) To Acquire Tasly Pharma (600535.CH) – SOEs Have High Enthusiasm for TCM Assets

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China Resources Sanjiu plans to acquire 28% stake in Tasly for RMB6.21 billion at RMB14.85/share. The acquisition of Tasly is in line with the strategic direction of 14th Five-Year Plan.
  • China Resources is positioned as a leading enterprise in modern industrial chain of TCM by the SASAC.Due to policy support, TCM assets are more likely to be favored by SOEs.
  • The deal is positive for Tasly, whose valuation has room to rise further, but the market seems “skeptical” about China Resources Sanjiu’s decision, leading to a lackluster share price reaction. 

Celltrion (068270 KS): 2Q24 Result- Biosimilar Sales Roar; Operating Profit Recovers Sequentially

By Tina Banerjee

  • Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) posted revenue of KRW875B in 2Q24, driven by balanced growth in both the existing core and new biosimilar products.
  • Operating profit ‘temporarily’ declined 60% YoY due to the ongoing impact of the merger. However, operating profit improved by a massive 371% sequentially.
  • Celltrion maintains its 2024 revenue target of KRW3.5T (+60% YoY). The improvement in sales and operating profit in the second half of the year is expected to become increasingly evident.

Stryker Corporation: The Artelon Acquisition

By Baptista Research

  • Stryker Corporation has released its earnings for the second quarter of 2024, showing a robust performance marked by a strong organic growth sales of 9% year-over-year.
  • The diversified medical technology company’s balanced growth across its MedSurg and Neurotechnology and Orthopaedics and Spine segments underpins its broad performance and robust demand for its products.
  • The global organic growth was evenly distributed with both U.S. and international markets expanding by approximately 9%.

Bristol-Myers Squibb: Will The Enhanced Focus on Cell Therapy and Innovative Cancer Treatments Pay Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bristol-Myers Squibb reported its second quarter 2024 earnings showcasing continued execution of its long-term strategy aimed at fostering sustainable growth.
  • The company highlighted an 18% year over-year increase in its growth portfolio revenues, amounting to a 21% rise when excluding the impact of foreign exchange.
  • This bolstered growth originated largely from several marketed products gaining traction in the market.

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Most Read: Toyota Motor, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nikkei 225, Softbank Group, Doosan Bobcat Inc, Alibaba Group Holding , Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Fuji Soft Inc, T Gaia Corp, Topsports International Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Thinking About The Toyota Tender Offer Buyback
  • China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Things Are Still Manageable
  • How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed During Market Turmoil?
  • JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade
  • Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled
  • Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?
  • GAPack (468 HK)’s Co-Founders (Almost) Walk The Walk
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Rumoured KKR-Sponsored MBO
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 – 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade
  • China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month


Thinking About The Toyota Tender Offer Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • In May when shares were trading near ¥3,500-3,600, Toyota announced a ¥1trln buyback. When shares fell, they announced a Tender Offer Buyback at a large discount (¥2,781/share). 
  • Subsequently, the shares fell very sharply on Thursday 1 August, then again Friday and yesterday. That put shares WELL below the Tender Offer Price. That creates possible opportunity. 
  • This insight discusses modalities (talk to your advisor for specific advice/info) who might do what and why. It sets parameters. But I think Toyota is cheap here.

China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Things Are Still Manageable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • What disappoints investors is that privatization progress is slower-than-expected. Since approval is in “advanced stage”, August update is eye-catching. Investors may need more patience with this type of SOE deal. 
  • The key to the success of this privatization lies in whether CNPGC is willing to abide by its commitments. If yes, CNPGC will take all measures to solve the problems.
  • According to our valuation calculation, even without this privatization, HK$3.5/share is fair for China TCM. Reasonable share price is above HK$5/share. Don’t forget, the privatization is still on the agenda.

How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed During Market Turmoil?

By Brian Freitas

  • The market turmoil over the last few trading sessions has not been kind to a simple index rebalance strategy of buying the forecast adds and selling the forecast deletes.
  • The overall returns and stock specific returns indicate that trades are more crowded in some indices as compared to others and traders should consider that when position sizing.
  • Anecdotally, periods of negative returns are followed by periods of strong returns for the strategy as weak hands are shaken out of their positions.

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.

Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

By Douglas Kim

  • On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios. 
  • Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.
  • Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled. 

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

By Brian Freitas

  • In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
  • The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
  • Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here. 

GAPack (468 HK)’s Co-Founders (Almost) Walk The Walk

By David Blennerhassett

  • To say Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)‘s management and Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) don’t get along is an understatement. GAPack has labelled XJF’s pre-conditional Offer hostile and unwelcome.
  • Last night (6th August), co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. No price was mentioned. Collectively they hold 14.72% of shares out compared to XJF’s 26.8%.
  • A firm Offer (and price) would have been welcome, and this probably reflects on-going funding negotiations. But the announcement will give minorities pause if/when tendering into XJF’s Offer.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Rumoured KKR-Sponsored MBO

By Arun George

  • Nikkei and Bloomberg report that Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) will be privatised through a KKR-sponsored MBO at a price just below JPY9,000, a 21.8% premium to the last close.
  • The rumoured privatisation proposal is the culmination of a sale process initiated by 3D Investment Partners, the largest shareholder, in September 2023.
  • The Board will meet tomorrow to discuss the proposal. The rumoured offer represents an all-time high and a knockout bid, suggesting a done deal if a binding proposal materialises.

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 – 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.
  • This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. 
  • I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.

China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

By Brian Freitas

  • The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the CSI 300 Index outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.
  • We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.
  • The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the HSCEI Index, CSI 300 Index and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group Holding , T Gaia Corp, MGM China Holdings, Topsports International Holdings, BrainBees Solutions, Mr Price Group Ltd, Yum China Holdings , Corn Active Contract, Beenos Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 – 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6)
  • China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month
  • Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: Key Facts, Financials and Valuations
  • MSC Aug 24 Rebalance: South Africa Post-Election Tailwind? MRP, ARI Potential Adds
  • Yum China (9987 HK): 2Q 2024 – Market Expansion Can’t Mask Macro Woes
  • Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown
  • BrainBees Solutions IPO: Five Facts Why FirstCry Is Not a First Class Company
  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

By Brian Freitas

  • In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
  • The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
  • Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here. 

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 – 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.
  • This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. 
  • I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6)

By David Mudd


China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

By Brian Freitas

  • The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the CSI 300 Index outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.
  • We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.
  • The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the HSCEI Index, CSI 300 Index and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: Key Facts, Financials and Valuations

By Devi Subhakesan

  • BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN) that operates FirstCry, India’s leading Online Mom and Child vertical, has launched a USD500 mn IPO that closes on August 8th.
  • The IPO pricing suggest a post-money equity valuation of around USD 2.8 billion and an EV/Revenue multiple in the range of 3.5X-3.7X.
  • Brainbees operates in an attractive online vertical noted for its high frequency purchases and long term customer relationship. However it has not built significant competitive advantages versus leading horizontal platforms.

MSC Aug 24 Rebalance: South Africa Post-Election Tailwind? MRP, ARI Potential Adds

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • MSC indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday the 30th of August. Constituent changes will be announced after the close next week Monday.
  • In this note we flag Mr Price Group Ltd (MRP SJ) & African Rainbow Minerals (ARI SJ) as possible additions to the MSC SA index.
  • Since our last discount update on the 22nd of July, Prosus has underperformed Naspers. The discount has widened by 1.7 percentage points to 39.6%.

Yum China (9987 HK): 2Q 2024 – Market Expansion Can’t Mask Macro Woes

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) reported a marginal 1% year-on-year increase in 2Q2024 revenue, driven by new store additions despite a decline in same-store sales.
  • Despite a challenging business environment, it achieved 8% year-on-year profit growth in Q2 and stabilised margins through sharp cost management and operational efficiency initiatives.
  • Without a clear visibility in improvement in consumer sentiment and spending, expect the tough operating environment to limit Yum China’s revenue and profit growth potential.

Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

By Pranay Yadav

  • Wheat, Corn and Soy gained on Monday even as US indices and commodities tumbled over recession woes. 
  • Weaker dollar supports stronger US exports of agri-commodities. Grains and oilseeds rise as dollar weakens.
  • Technical indicators and fundamental outlook remains bearish for agri-commoties. IV remains subdued at multi-month lows. 

BrainBees Solutions IPO: Five Facts Why FirstCry Is Not a First Class Company

By Devi Subhakesan

  • We highlight several red flags  with regard to BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN) operations, business strategy and governance for investors’ careful consideration.
  • At the announced IPO price band of Rs440 – Rs465, Brainbees implied EV/Revenues (FY24) works out to 3.5X – 3.7X – a significant discount to India listed online retail verticals.
  • Despite seemingly inexpensive relative valuations, we do not see a compelling reason to invest in the company, specially given the several red flags discussed below.

Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • GMV increased 21.4% YoY to JPY85.7bn, while revenue decreased 7.7% YoY to JPY20.4bn, and operating profit fell 46.6% YoY to JPY1.4bn.
  • In Q3 FY09/24, GMV grew 21.4% YoY, with Global Commerce revenue up 21.3% YoY and Entertainment revenue up 6.8% YoY.
  • The company recorded an extraordinary gain of JPY1.0bn from the Value Cycle segment share transfer, impacting FY09/24 results.

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Daily Brief Financials: Resona Holdings, S&P Global , Hang Lung Properties, PrimeTime Property Holdings, Aon , RDC Properties, Greentown China, Westaim Corporation, Anicom Holdings, Chiba Kogyo Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Big Five Banks – Opportunity in the Face of Market Turmoil; Focus on Resona and Mizuho
  • S&P Global Inc.: Expansion into Private Markets and Credit Indices As A New Avenue For Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Hang Lung Properties 101 HK: Dragged by China Slowing Luxury Retail, but Stock Too Cheap to Ignore
  • PrimeTime Property Holdings Limited: Punching Above Its Weight – Small Firm, Big Value
  • Aon plc: Expanding Market Presence through Acquisitions! – Major Drivers
  • RDC Properties Limited: Botswana’s Family-Dominated Behemoth – Quo Vadis?
  • Greentown China – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Westaim Corp (WED.V) – Tuesday, May 7, 2024
  • Anicom Holdings (8715 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Chiba Kogyo Bank (8337 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update


Japanese Big Five Banks – Opportunity in the Face of Market Turmoil; Focus on Resona and Mizuho

By Victor Galliano

  • The sharp Japanese market correction has hit the banks hard, and heightened market volatility is likely to remain a feature, at least in the very near term
  • Nonetheless, the big five’s results in the first quarter to June-end paint a reassuring picture, and we see that BoJ is pausing on rate rises in these unsettled markets
  • Among the big five Japanese bank shares, we highlight Resona and Mizuho in particular for their strong gearing to higher interest rates; we are also positive on SMFG and Concordia

S&P Global Inc.: Expansion into Private Markets and Credit Indices As A New Avenue For Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • S&P Global demonstrated a robust performance in the second quarter of 2024, marking significant milestones and strategic advancements, achieved amidst a backdrop of market variability.
  • The company reported a 16% increase in total revenue, adjusted for divestitures, with highlights including a notable spike in transaction revenue in the Ratings division by over 60%.
  • This division’s success was propelled by increased activity in the public and private markets, notably a 70% boost in private market rating services.

Hang Lung Properties 101 HK: Dragged by China Slowing Luxury Retail, but Stock Too Cheap to Ignore

By Jacob Cheng

  • HLP malls, which focus on China luxury retail consumption, is facing headwind from slowing China economy and weaker consumption
  • The retail sales in its malls slowed down and recorded -13% yoy growth for 1H 2024.  Dividend cut was a negative surprise
  • However, market is forward looking and stock valuation is too cheap to ignore, we recommend long-term investors can look at this name

PrimeTime Property Holdings Limited: Punching Above Its Weight – Small Firm, Big Value

By Garreth Elston

  • PrimeTime Property Holdings operates a diversified portfolio of thirty properties, spread across Botswana, South Africa, and Zambia.
  • The company is currently Botswana’s smallest listed property company in market capitalisation terms, despite having the fourth largest portfolio by asset value, but the company’s intrinsically fully let portfolio offers professionally managed, superior quality buildings, in desirable locations at a currently attractive valuation.
  • Latest interim results have seen revenues increased by 6% compared to the prior year’s interim period.

Aon plc: Expanding Market Presence through Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Aon plc has delivered a robust performance for the second quarter of 2024, marked by a clear focus on delivering on its three-dimensional, three-year strategic plan known as the “3×3 plan.” This approach underscores Aon’s commitment to strengthening offerings across risk capital and human capital solutions, all promoted through its Aon client leadership model.
  • The acquisition of NFP, welcoming 7,700 new colleagues, has played a pivotal role, adding substantial scale and extending Aon’s capabilities in critical business areas.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

RDC Properties Limited: Botswana’s Family-Dominated Behemoth – Quo Vadis?

By Garreth Elston

  • RDC Properties Limited is a variable loan stock company listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange.
  • The company is currently Botswana’s second largest listed property company in market capitalisation terms, despite having the largest portfolio by asset value.
  • It currently operates in Botswana, South Africa, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zambia, Croatia, and the United States of America.

Greentown China – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Greentown China’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 


Westaim Corp (WED.V) – Tuesday, May 7, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Westaim aims to create value for shareholders through a recent secondary offering and potential sale of remaining shares in Skyward Specialty
  • The company is set to increase its cash position and reduce its discount to intrinsic value, providing an attractive investment opportunity
  • Investors can capitalize on Westaim’s near-cash assets and potential upside in the future.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Anicom Holdings (8715 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Recurring revenue rose 11.1% YoY to JPY16.5bn, driven by increases in underwriting, investment, and other recurring revenue.
  • Recurring profit increased 34.9% YoY to JPY1.6bn, aided by cost control and streamlined operations, with a 9.8% profit margin.
  • E/I loss ratio increased 1.5pp YoY to 61.1%, while the operating expense ratio improved by 1.0pp YoY to 32.8%.

Chiba Kogyo Bank (8337 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated ordinary income was JPY14.0bn (-8.2% YoY), with ordinary profit at JPY2.8bn (-18.5% YoY) and profit attributable to owners at JPY2.2bn (-9.4% YoY).
  • Non-consolidated core gross profit increased to JPY9.7bn (+0.9% YoY), and core operating profit rose to JPY3.3bn (+3.0% YoY).
  • Loans outstanding increased 0.6% YoY, while the loan-to-deposit ratio decreased to 77.5% from 77.8% a year ago.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 2nd): Sk Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 2nd): Sk Hynix, Korea Aerospace, Posco


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 2nd): Sk Hynix, Korea Aerospace, Posco

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Sk Hynix, Korea Aerospace, Posco.

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Daily Brief ESG: The Number of TOPIX Components Should Be More Reduced to Raise the Quality of Engagement and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Number of TOPIX Components Should Be More Reduced to Raise the Quality of Engagement, Though
  • Road King – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


The Number of TOPIX Components Should Be More Reduced to Raise the Quality of Engagement, Though

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The cost is somewhat reduced for the user because of the higher weighting of more liquid stocks. Meanwhile, selling pressure is inevitable for less liquid companies whose weights are reduced.
  • Even if the number of stocks decreases, 1,200 stocks isn’t small number. Also, even though the market capitalization of the components has increased, approximately 73 billion yen isn’t sufficiently liquid.
  • With calls for increased engagement, the number of issues remains too large for domestic asset managers, where passive funds account for a high percentage of AUM.

Road King – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Road King’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with the Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS
  • Ohayo Japan | Turnaround Tuesday
  • Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies
  • The Beat Ideas: Websolar Energy- From Bad Past to Turnaround
  • The Bangladesh Crisis: What Does It Mean for India?
  • Japan Morning Connection: 6301 JP, 6326 JP, 2503 JP
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BILIUS/TCOMUS/SEUS/PDDUS/4689JP/4385JP/BABAUS/3690HK/JDUS/700HK/NTESUS
  • # 40 India Insight: ONGC Gas Production, Vedanta Debt Reduction, Tata Power Acquisition
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/AAPL US/2150 HK/Macro News Update/Consumer Industry Update


MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change.
  • What changed was that we are seeing a very large leveraged unwind in the market, driven by the BOJ’s hike in interest rates.
  • Let me write out the series of events. First and foremost, last week, we saw some of the first macro jitters. The CPI came to light, which was viewed as positive. But then NFP showed a bit of weakness.

Ohayo Japan | Turnaround Tuesday

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks snapped a three-day losing streak as investors set aside recession worries
  • All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 posted gains, with megacap tech stocks leading the rebound; Nvidia increased 3.8%, and Meta Platforms rose 3.9%.
  • The VIX fell by 10.8 points to end the session at 27.71

Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Bangladesh, India’s 2nd largest trading partner in Asia is under a political crisis leading to instability and uncertainty. 
  • Companies impacted by Bangladesh Crisis in India across sectors and across market caps listed below. 
  • There might be short-term impact, but in long run, there would not be much impact as overall exposure is not that much.

The Beat Ideas: Websolar Energy- From Bad Past to Turnaround

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Websol Energy System (WESL IN) has upgraded from PERC to TOPCon technology, significantly expanding its production capacity.
  • The shift to advanced TOPCon cells positions Websol for higher efficiency and growth, with 75% capacity utilization achieved shortly after the upgrade.
  • Earlier, the Company has underperformed due to less efficient technology and a history of non-performance of promoters.

The Bangladesh Crisis: What Does It Mean for India?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Sheikh Hasina resigned, leading to chaos in Bangladesh and the formation of an interim government in Bangladesh.
  • Political instability could disrupt India-Bangladesh trade, delay the FTA, and intensify regional strategic concerns, including China’s growing influence.
  • Indian companies will also be impacted by this geopolitical issue, as India exports 35% of its cotton to Bangladesh and imports ready-made garments from the same country.

Japan Morning Connection: 6301 JP, 6326 JP, 2503 JP

By Andrew Jackson

  • US rebound lacks breadth, and while tech should be strong to start it may be too early to predict an extended rally off the lows in Japan after yesterday’s gains.
  • An SMCI after-market miss is dulling the mood which may also dent sentiment for AI/SPE related to start.
  • A good print from CAT sets a positive tone for the likes of 6301 Komatsu and 6326 Kubota who were both sold heavily in the recent panic.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BILIUS/TCOMUS/SEUS/PDDUS/4689JP/4385JP/BABAUS/3690HK/JDUS/700HK/NTESUS

By Ying Pan

  • BILI US: Bilibili’s <Three Kingdoms: MDTX> Shows Significant Grossing Ranking Rebound After Season 2 Update (+)
  • TCOM US:Beijing’s tourist arrivals increased by 16.7% YoY in July (+)
  • TCOM US: Amap Launches Airport Shuttle Service in Hong Kong (-)

# 40 India Insight: ONGC Gas Production, Vedanta Debt Reduction, Tata Power Acquisition

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • ONGC plans to increase gas production from 1,527 to 1,675 MMSCM by drilling new wells
  • Vedanta aims to reduce debt by $3 billion through cash flow, asset sales, and strategic measures
  • Tata Power will acquire Paradeep Transmission Ltd to build and operate a 765 kV transmission line

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/AAPL US/2150 HK/Macro News Update/Consumer Industry Update

By Eric Wen

  • 1211 HK: BYD and Uber reach agreement to launch 100,000 vehicles globally (/)
  • AAPL US: Huawei double-hinge folding device has begun production (-)
  • Macro News Update: The State Council Releases the “Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of Service Consumption,” Primarily Focusing on Supply-Side Improvement.(+)

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