All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Mitsui Fudosan, HKEX, HashKey Digital Asset Group Lt, Industrivarden AB, EML Payments Limited, Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)
  • Hong Kong Exchanges – Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation
  • HashKey Group secures US$100M in Series A financing, turns unicorn | e27
  • Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount
  • EML Payments – Major source of losses stemmed
  • Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Activist Elliott Takes on Mitsui Fudosan (8801)

By Travis Lundy

  • The FT carries an article this AM saying Elliott Management have built a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and has asked it to undertake measures to increase ROE.
  • Measures requested apparently include a very large buyback and a demand the company sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP). The article is worth reading.  
  • Shares are up sharply on this news. The fund was in the news last year about this time regarding Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP). I’d expect more noise to come. 

Hong Kong Exchanges – Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Even the company itself shows in its recent presentation that a substantial portion of its revenue growth was due to rising rates on its cash deposit balances. This should wane.
  • The company’s effective tax rate moved from 14% in the past few years, when it was stable to 10% in most recent period, this is not a core positive attribute.
  • Geopolitical risk, economic malaise in both Hong Kong and China, can lead to less interest in the market, trading, placements, perhaps suggesting its 6x PB is not warranted?

HashKey Group secures US$100M in Series A financing, turns unicorn | e27

By e27

  • HashKey Group, an end-to-end digital asset financial services group based in Hong Kong, has completed a Series A financing round of nearly US$100 million at a pre-money valuation of over US$1.2 billion.
  • The round attracted new and existing investors, including prominent institutional investors, leading Web3 institutions, and strategic partners.
  • The group will use the money to accelerate the product diversification of its licensed business in Hong Kong and drive development globally.

Industrivärden FY 2023, NAV Evolution and Discount

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • FY2023 was another year of value creation: 19% increase of NAV. Discount/NAV of C shares is 4.3%, below both the “usual” 15% conglomerate discount, and 5-year average of 9%.
  • C shares are trading at a 0% discount to A shares. My target NAV is SEK 158,215 million, an 8.5% increase. My target TP, assuming 5% discount/NAV, is SEK 329.5.
  • Implementing the typical holding discount trade would be risky. However, I would put on a reversal trade, betting on a widening of the discount up to around 7.5%-8%.

EML Payments – Major source of losses stemmed

By Edison Investment Research

As part of its strategy to focus on profitable, cash-generative businesses, the boards of EML Payments and PFS Card Services Ireland Limited (PCSIL) have decided to wind down the PCSIL business. This removes a source of considerable cash burn and management distraction and leaves the group better positioned to support the Gifting and the Australian and UK General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) businesses. The strategic review is ongoing and management noted it had received several expressions of interest for Sentenial. FY24 guidance given in November is maintained despite the PCSIL liquidation. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the November trading update and the PCSIL liquidation, upgrading our underlying EBITDA forecasts by 14.9% in FY24 and 6.0% in FY25.


Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Health Care: China Medical System, Concord Biotech Ltd, ProTA Therapeutics Pty , Resmed Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Medical System (867 HK) – A Wise Choice in a Bear Market
  • Concord Biotech’s US$650m Lock-Up Expiry – Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains
  • Prota raises US$21M led by Singapore’s SPRIM for its peanut allergy therapy | e27
  • ResMed Inc: Potential expansion of sleep awareness and population health management strategies to boost growth! – Major Drivers


China Medical System (867 HK) – A Wise Choice in a Bear Market

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • CMS’s way of in-licensing products has shifted from CSO model to asset-purchase model so as to enhance control on the assets. But the transformation hasn’t been recognized by the market.     
  • Despite outstanding fundamentals, CMS’s valuation remains low. Doubts about the Company’s real R&D capabilities/core competitiveness and the negative image due to past financial fraud could be the reasons.
  • CMS would encounter performance headwinds in 2023/2024 due to VBP, but revenue/profit growth is expected to pick up in 2025. It’s still a good defensive choice in a bear market.

Concord Biotech’s US$650m Lock-Up Expiry – Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains

By Clarence Chu

  • Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) listed in India on 18th Aug 23 after raising US$188m. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown with Helix Investment selling its entire stake.
  • Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry on 7th Feb 24 are the firm’s pre-IPO shareholders, along with a portion of its promoters’ stake.

Prota raises US$21M led by Singapore’s SPRIM for its peanut allergy therapy | e27

By e27

  • Singapore-based health sciences VC firm SPRIM Global Investments has led the US$21 million funding round (equity and debt) of Australian biotech firm Prota Therapeutics.
  • The fresh funding will be used to advance the development of Prota’s peanut allergy remission oral therapy, PRT120, which is being prepared for the phase 3 clinical investigation.
  • The new investment will advance the chemistry, manufacturing, and controls (CMC), accelerate the path to an investigational new drug application (IND), and expand Prota’s executive management team to bring on board critical expertise in late-stage drug development and commercialisation.

ResMed Inc: Potential expansion of sleep awareness and population health management strategies to boost growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q2 FY2024 earnings for ResMed, the company registered strong execution across its entire business, reflecting in double-digit top and bottom-line growth.
  • The results were primarily driven by double-digit global growth in both devices and its Software as a Service (SaaS) business.
  • ResMed is addressing a significant problem considering there are over 2 billion people worldwide suffering from sleep apnea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, respiratory insufficiency resulting from neuromuscular disease, or insomnia.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology, General Electric , Grupo Aeromexico, iPower , Kbr Inc, Textron Inc, Csx Corp, United Rentals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup
  • General Dynamics: Continued Growth In The Aerospace Sector Responsible For A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers
  • Aeromexico – International Strength Accelerating Progress but Delta JCA Termination a Speed Bump
  • IPower, Inc.- 2QFY24 Preview: Looking for Updates on Key Initiatives
  • Kbr Inc (KBR) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • Textron Inc: Improved Supply Chain and Labor Productivity Could Help Save The Day? – Major Drivers
  • CSX Corporation: Revenue expectations considering coal prices and intermodal market dynamics! – Major Drivers
  • United Rentals Inc: Increased Used Equipment Sales & Other Major Drivers


STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
  • There are 10 stocks in inclusion zone and 11 in deletion zone. There should be 10 changes since that is the cap for the maximum changes at a single rebalance.
  • The potential adds and deletes are down between 37-47% over the last 6 months and a long/short trade could provide superior risk-adjusted returns.

General Dynamics: Continued Growth In The Aerospace Sector Responsible For A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • General Dynamics Corporation’s quarterly and full-year results for 2023 indicate a strong performance with increased revenues and operating earnings as well as modest earnings per share growth.
  • However, the growth rate for earnings per share was slower than expected due to higher net income in the previous year.
  • Sequentially, the company’s results improved significantly, with increases in revenue, operating earnings, net earnings, and earnings per share.

Aeromexico – International Strength Accelerating Progress but Delta JCA Termination a Speed Bump

By Neil Glynn

  • We raise our forecasts to reflect the strength of International revenue at Aeromexico – we expect it to beat 2023 EBITDAR targets by 26%
  • Aeromexico has been outperforming domestic competitors Volaris, Viva Aerobus due to international unit revenue gains – their forced capacity cuts due to GTF issues should help Aeromexico manage 2024 margins
  • Fitting with the global theme of consolidation difficulties, the US has ruled the Delta/Aeromexico JV must terminate – this could be a double digit % risk to PBT

IPower, Inc.- 2QFY24 Preview: Looking for Updates on Key Initiatives

By Water Tower Research

  • iPower is expected to report its 2QFY24 results in mid-February. Investors will continue to focus on the company’s progress on key initiatives.
  • While continuing to grow its key Amazon relationship, iPower is also expanding its distribution channels.
  • We look for an update on the growth of its TikTok Shop business as well as developments with physical retailers.

Kbr Inc (KBR) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • KBR’s Global Solutions segment offers various services to government clients globally, making it the company’s largest business.
  • The Technology Solutions segment provides proprietary technologies and engineering services primarily for the energy, chemicals, and hydrocarbons industries.
  • KBR’s stock is currently undervalued compared to its peers, presenting potential for significant upside if it can reach its target valuation. 

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Textron Inc: Improved Supply Chain and Labor Productivity Could Help Save The Day? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Textron Inc.’s strong performance and positive margins were highlighted in its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call.
  • The industrial conglomerate generated $3.9 billion in quarterly revenue, a rise from $3.6 billion posted in the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • Textron’s segment profit was $384 million, $78 million higher than that of the fourth quarter of the previous year.

CSX Corporation: Revenue expectations considering coal prices and intermodal market dynamics! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CSX Corporation posted solid 2023 results, setting a strong precedent for 2024 due to its robust financial position and positive business momentum.
  • Despite facing challenges like inclement weather, 2023 was marked by healthy volumes, favorable pricing measures, strong operating margins, and more.
  • The company experienced setbacks due to higher interest rates and supply chain disruptions, but managed to mitigate these issues.

United Rentals Inc: Increased Used Equipment Sales & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings from United Rentals highlight several points of growing interest for potential investors.
  • The company achieved record-breaking results for the fourth quarter of the year, as noted by President and CEO Matt Flannery, through the continuation of a customer-centric approach to operational excellence and safety.
  • The company’s achievements are marked by record revenue, earnings, and returns, underpinned by a strategic acquisition and the focus on integration.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SK Innovation, Ssangyong Cement Industrial, Silver Lake Resources, Haynes International, Fortuna Silver Mines, Freeport Mcmoran, Advanced Emissions Solutions I, Gold, W&T Offshore, Lithium Americas Argentina Cor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Innovation: Announces Share Cancellation of Nearly 4.92 Million Shares
  • Ssangyong C&E (003410 KS): Hahn & Co’s Tender Offer
  • Silver Lake (SLR AU): Merger Terms Favour Red 5 (RED AU)
  • Acerinox/Haynes: Expansion in High-Performance Alloys
  • Mining Monthly: January Edition
  • Freeport-McMoran Inc: Efficiencies From Automation & Advanced Technologies As A Game Changer! – Major Drivers
  • Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • Gold Demand Data Confirms Economic Rebound // Latest CTA Positioning Calls from UBS
  • W&T Offshore, Inc. – Cox Acquisition Bolsters Free Cash Flow Profile
  • Lithium Amers (Argentina) Cp (LAAC.) – Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023


SK Innovation: Announces Share Cancellation of Nearly 4.92 Million Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 5 February, SK Innovation (096770 KS) announced a large-scale shares cancellation of 4.92 million shares, representing 4.9% of outstanding shares. 
  • This is the first ever large scale shares cancellation for SK Innovation since it was first established in 2011.
  • All in all, despite the company’s disappointing results in 2023, the large scale share cancellation should help to support SK Innovation’s share price in the coming weeks. 

Ssangyong C&E (003410 KS): Hahn & Co’s Tender Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Today, 5 February, PE-outfit Hahn & Co commenced its Tender Offer for the 20.1% of shares not held in cement manufacturer Ssangyong C&E (003410 KS).
  • The Tender Offer price is ₩7,000/share, a 9.2% premium to last close; although shares did gain ~12.2% just prior to the Offer.
  • There is no minimum acceptance condition. Hahn & Co will purchase all shares tendered. Payment is the 8 March. This will trade tight. 

Silver Lake (SLR AU): Merger Terms Favour Red 5 (RED AU)

By Arun George

  • Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) and Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) will merge. SLR shareholders receive 3.434 RED shares per SLR share, implying A$1.133, a 10.4% discount to the undisturbed price. 
  • The merger is strategically sensible as the combined entity should re-rate due to scale, diversification and better cash flow generation.
  • The merger terms are more favourable for RED shareholders than SLR shareholders, posing a risk for the vote. The merger may draw out rival suitors.  

Acerinox/Haynes: Expansion in High-Performance Alloys

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 5 February, Acerinox SA (ACX SM) announced a friendly $61/share all-cash offer to acquire Haynes International (HAYN US), implied equity value $798 million, implied EV $970 million and 8.7% premium.
  • The offer represents 1.5x EV/24e Sales, 10.1x EV/24e EBITDA (5.8x including run-rate estimated synergies of c.$71 million, seemingly quite large). The acquisition amounts to approximately 33% of Acerinox’s market cap.
  • Acerinox is paying higher multiples than those at which Acerinox itself is trading. The deal should close. The shares of Haynes are already up 2.7% pre-market after Q1 results. Long.

Mining Monthly: January Edition

By Atrium Research

  • Gold held flat in January following a big monthly gain of 13% and reaching all-time highs in December, while mining equities lagged.
  • Besides gold, other precious metals, commodities, and battery metals had a mixed month, while uranium’s strong performance accelerated, up 16% in January and hitting its highest price in more than 16 years.
  • We attended a busy Vancouver Resource Investment Conference in January.

Freeport-McMoran Inc: Efficiencies From Automation & Advanced Technologies As A Game Changer! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In FY 2023, Freeport-McMoRan reported solid operating results across its operations.
  • A key highlight was its robust performance in Indonesia, where production levels improved for the fourth consecutive year and several new operating records were set.
  • The company also reached several milestones, including achieving a target run rate for their leach production in the Americas and making significant progress on the Indonesian smelter project.

Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • The EPA will be implementing regulations to reduce levels of PFAS chemicals in municipalities, due to the health risks associated with them.
  • Major retailers like Amazon, Lowe’s, and McDonald’s are adopting policies to eliminate and prohibit the use of PFAS chemicals in their products.
  • 3M, a major supplier of PFAS, agreed to a $10 billion settlement in June 2023.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Gold Demand Data Confirms Economic Rebound // Latest CTA Positioning Calls from UBS

By The Commodity Report

  • Last week the World Gold Council published its figures for the fourth quarter of 2023.

  • Gold demand for technology, electronics and other industrial use cases continued to improve in nominal and YoY terms – pointing to an economic rebound.

  • “Technology demand proved another surprising element in 2023, churning out stellar growth in Q4, albeit from a low base.


W&T Offshore, Inc. – Cox Acquisition Bolsters Free Cash Flow Profile

By Water Tower Research

  • W&T Offshore closed an acquisition of six operated oil & gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico on January 22, 2024, for $72 million.
  • The acquisition, which was funded with cash on hand, fits management’s philosophy of investing capital in short- cycle opportunities capable of generating free cash flow.
  • The acquired assets include 100% working interests (82% net revenue interests) in six producing fields adjacent to W&T’s existing asset footprint.

Lithium Amers (Argentina) Cp (LAAC.) – Tuesday, Nov 7, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • US-based operations of Lithium Americas are separate from potential trade disputes.
  • Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp has an attractive valuation, strong cash flows, and a favorable mining jurisdiction in Argentina.
  • The author believes the stock has the potential to double within 12 months, with a price target of $12.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Ascendas India Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • REIT Watch – Data centre S-Reits positive about riding AI wave


REIT Watch – Data centre S-Reits positive about riding AI wave

By Geoff Howie

  • REIT Watch – Data centre S-Reits positive about riding AI wave The exponential progress of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning is expected to create unprecedented demand for global data centres, noted JLL in its Data Centres 2024 Global Outlook.
  • MIT’s portfolio occupancy for its data centre segment is at 91.0 per cent (as at Dec 31, 2023), 2.4 percentage points lower quarter on quarter.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology, General Electric , Grupo Aeromexico, iPower , Kbr Inc, Textron Inc, Csx Corp, United Rentals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup
  • General Dynamics: Continued Growth In The Aerospace Sector Responsible For A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers
  • Aeromexico – International Strength Accelerating Progress but Delta JCA Termination a Speed Bump
  • IPower, Inc.- 2QFY24 Preview: Looking for Updates on Key Initiatives
  • Kbr Inc (KBR) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • Textron Inc: Improved Supply Chain and Labor Productivity Could Help Save The Day? – Major Drivers
  • CSX Corporation: Revenue expectations considering coal prices and intermodal market dynamics! – Major Drivers
  • United Rentals Inc: Increased Used Equipment Sales & Other Major Drivers


STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
  • There are 10 stocks in inclusion zone and 11 in deletion zone. There should be 10 changes since that is the cap for the maximum changes at a single rebalance.
  • The potential adds and deletes are down between 37-47% over the last 6 months and a long/short trade could provide superior risk-adjusted returns.

General Dynamics: Continued Growth In The Aerospace Sector Responsible For A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • General Dynamics Corporation’s quarterly and full-year results for 2023 indicate a strong performance with increased revenues and operating earnings as well as modest earnings per share growth.
  • However, the growth rate for earnings per share was slower than expected due to higher net income in the previous year.
  • Sequentially, the company’s results improved significantly, with increases in revenue, operating earnings, net earnings, and earnings per share.

Aeromexico – International Strength Accelerating Progress but Delta JCA Termination a Speed Bump

By Neil Glynn

  • We raise our forecasts to reflect the strength of International revenue at Aeromexico – we expect it to beat 2023 EBITDAR targets by 26%
  • Aeromexico has been outperforming domestic competitors Volaris, Viva Aerobus due to international unit revenue gains – their forced capacity cuts due to GTF issues should help Aeromexico manage 2024 margins
  • Fitting with the global theme of consolidation difficulties, the US has ruled the Delta/Aeromexico JV must terminate – this could be a double digit % risk to PBT

IPower, Inc.- 2QFY24 Preview: Looking for Updates on Key Initiatives

By Water Tower Research

  • iPower is expected to report its 2QFY24 results in mid-February. Investors will continue to focus on the company’s progress on key initiatives.
  • While continuing to grow its key Amazon relationship, iPower is also expanding its distribution channels.
  • We look for an update on the growth of its TikTok Shop business as well as developments with physical retailers.

Kbr Inc (KBR) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • KBR’s Global Solutions segment offers various services to government clients globally, making it the company’s largest business.
  • The Technology Solutions segment provides proprietary technologies and engineering services primarily for the energy, chemicals, and hydrocarbons industries.
  • KBR’s stock is currently undervalued compared to its peers, presenting potential for significant upside if it can reach its target valuation. 

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Textron Inc: Improved Supply Chain and Labor Productivity Could Help Save The Day? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Textron Inc.’s strong performance and positive margins were highlighted in its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call.
  • The industrial conglomerate generated $3.9 billion in quarterly revenue, a rise from $3.6 billion posted in the fourth quarter of 2022.
  • Textron’s segment profit was $384 million, $78 million higher than that of the fourth quarter of the previous year.

CSX Corporation: Revenue expectations considering coal prices and intermodal market dynamics! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CSX Corporation posted solid 2023 results, setting a strong precedent for 2024 due to its robust financial position and positive business momentum.
  • Despite facing challenges like inclement weather, 2023 was marked by healthy volumes, favorable pricing measures, strong operating margins, and more.
  • The company experienced setbacks due to higher interest rates and supply chain disruptions, but managed to mitigate these issues.

United Rentals Inc: Increased Used Equipment Sales & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings from United Rentals highlight several points of growing interest for potential investors.
  • The company achieved record-breaking results for the fourth quarter of the year, as noted by President and CEO Matt Flannery, through the continuation of a customer-centric approach to operational excellence and safety.
  • The company’s achievements are marked by record revenue, earnings, and returns, underpinned by a strategic acquisition and the focus on integration.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief TMT/Internet: iClick Interactive Asia Group, CELSYS, Infosys Ltd, Microsoft Corp, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Servicenow Inc, Amphenol Corp Cl A, Lam Research, International Business Machines, ASML Holding NV and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • IClick (ICLK US): Offer Price In Line With Net Cash
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2024)
  • India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February
  • Microsoft Q2 Earnings Review
  • Meta Platforms: Model Update
  • ServiceNow Inc: The Increasing Scope Of Its Gen AI technology And Other Major Drivers
  • Amphenol Corporation: AI Advancements & Capacity Management As A Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers
  • Lam Research Corporation: Navigating Industry Inflections With Superior Tools & Customer-Centric Solutions! – Major Drivers
  • IBM Corporation: Is The Infrastructure Revenue Decline A Cause For Concern? – Major Drivers
  • ASML Holding ADR: Increasing Utilization Rates and Technology Transition Could Be A Transformative Force? – Major Drivers


IClick (ICLK US): Offer Price In Line With Net Cash

By David Blennerhassett

  • The EGM to vote on the privatisation of iClick (ICLK US) takes place on the 8th March.  The Offer price is US$4.08/ADS (US$0.816/share), bang in-line with iClick’s 1H23 net cash/share. 
  • That’s a far cry from the 2021 non-binding Offers of US$75/ADS and US$67.50/ADS from Infinity Equity Management and PAG/Oasis respectively – after adjusting for November 2022’s reverse share split. 
  • The Buyer Group owns 35% of shares out and 69% of the vote. The Merger requires at least two-thirds of the voting power of shares out. So this is done. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Feb 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • The TOPIX Inclusion events of Visional (4194 JP) and Furuya Metal (7826 JP) took place at the end of January and the price performances were mostly in line with expectations.
  • Currently, there are no upcoming TOPIX Inclusion events that have been announced officially but there are couple of pre-event names that should be on your watchlist.

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

By Brian Freitas

  • Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
  • The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
  • There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.

Microsoft Q2 Earnings Review

By From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

  • Microsoft reported results on January 30th. The company generated revenue in excess of 62bn dollars during the fourth quarter of 2023, increasing 17% on a yearly basis and exhibiting a 4yr CAGR of 13.8%.
  • It’s worth highlighting that Activision contributed to 4pp of revenue growth.
  • During July, a court filing was leaked, which illustrated management’s self-stated ambition for the next decade.

Meta Platforms: Model Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • So I took this weekend to update my models on Meta and Amazon. I just wanted to leave some brisk thoughts on these updated models.
  • I will start with Meta today and will share my thoughts on Amazon tomorrow.
  • You can find the updated model on Meta here which I encourage you to download to play around with your own narrative as you see fit.

ServiceNow Inc: The Increasing Scope Of Its Gen AI technology And Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ServiceNow’s Q4 2023 earnings present a compelling story of growth powered by artificial intelligence (AI).
  • The company reported subscription revenue growth of 25.5% at constant currency, 200 basis points above its guidance and cRPO growth of 23% at constant currency, also 200 basis points above its guidance.
  • In addition, the company reported 168 deals greater than $1 million in net new ACV, a 33% increase from the previous year.

Amphenol Corporation: AI Advancements & Capacity Management As A Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Amphenol Corporation announced its fourth quarter and full year results for 2023 with the company closing the quarter with sales of $3,327 million and record adjusted diluted EPS of $0.82.
  • The company’s sales were up 3% in U.S. dollars for Q4, 4% sequentially, but down 1% organically compared to Q4 2022.
  • In contrast, the full year saw a drop with sales of $12,555 million, which was a decline of 50 basis points in U.S. dollars and a 3% organic decrease compared to 2022.

Lam Research Corporation: Navigating Industry Inflections With Superior Tools & Customer-Centric Solutions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the recent earnings, Lam Research Corporation demonstrated strong performance in the December quarter of 2023.
  • Financial highlights include higher revenues, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS above guided ranges.
  • Although overall wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending declined, the company almost doubled its EPS compared to the cycle trough in 2019.

IBM Corporation: Is The Infrastructure Revenue Decline A Cause For Concern? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The latest earnings of IBM revealed solid growth across all businesses for the last quarter of 2023, with a revenue growth of 3% and over $11 billion of free cash flow.
  • The achievements and progress noted by IBM’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Arvind Krishna, corroborate the company’s commitment towards strengthening its diversified business model.
  • Key drivers of IBM’s success during the year 2023 were enhancements in its software portfolio and the bolstering of its consulting position.

ASML Holding ADR: Increasing Utilization Rates and Technology Transition Could Be A Transformative Force? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ASML, a leading manufacturer of chip-making equipment, has reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023, demonstrating strong financial performance despite a challenging macroeconomic landscape marked by uncertainties.
  • The company reported net sales of EUR 7.2 billion in Q4, coming in just above the guidance, mainly due to more installed base business.
  • This included EUV system revenue of EUR 2.3 billion and net system sales totalling EUR 5.7 billion, largely driven by Logic which accounted for 63% of net system sales, while Memory composes the remainder.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: Infosys Ltd, Concord Biotech Ltd, Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February
  • Concord Biotech’s US$650m Lock-Up Expiry – Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains
  • Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels IPO – Has Bounced Back Strongly, at a Decent Discount


India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

By Brian Freitas

  • Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
  • The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
  • There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.

Concord Biotech’s US$650m Lock-Up Expiry – Some Could Be Tempted to Book Multi-Bagger Gains

By Clarence Chu

  • Concord Biotech Ltd (658823Z IN) listed in India on 18th Aug 23 after raising US$188m. The IPO had been a 100% secondary selldown with Helix Investment selling its entire stake.
  • Concord Biotech (Concord) is an India-based biopharma firm, which develops and manufactures fermentation-based active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry on 7th Feb 24 are the firm’s pre-IPO shareholders, along with a portion of its promoters’ stake.

Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels IPO – Has Bounced Back Strongly, at a Decent Discount

By Sumeet Singh

  • Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel (PARK IN) (ASPH) plans to raise up to US$111m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its India IPO.
  • ASPH ranks as the eighth largest in India in terms of chain affiliated hotel rooms inventory as of Sep 2023, as per Horwath HTL Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the past performance and our thoughts on valuations.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: iClick Interactive Asia Group, BYD, Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology, HKEX, Giordano International, China Medical System, HashKey Digital Asset Group Lt, Hopson Development and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • IClick (ICLK US): Offer Price In Line With Net Cash
  • China Consumption Weekly (5 Feb 2024): BYD, Li Auto, Alibaba, Sun Art
  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup
  • Hong Kong Exchanges – Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation
  • Cheng Family Seeks Board Control Of Giordano (709 HK)
  • China Medical System (867 HK) – A Wise Choice in a Bear Market
  • HashKey Group secures US$100M in Series A financing, turns unicorn | e27
  • Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development


IClick (ICLK US): Offer Price In Line With Net Cash

By David Blennerhassett

  • The EGM to vote on the privatisation of iClick (ICLK US) takes place on the 8th March.  The Offer price is US$4.08/ADS (US$0.816/share), bang in-line with iClick’s 1H23 net cash/share. 
  • That’s a far cry from the 2021 non-binding Offers of US$75/ADS and US$67.50/ADS from Infinity Equity Management and PAG/Oasis respectively – after adjusting for November 2022’s reverse share split. 
  • The Buyer Group owns 35% of shares out and 69% of the vote. The Merger requires at least two-thirds of the voting power of shares out. So this is done. 

China Consumption Weekly (5 Feb 2024): BYD, Li Auto, Alibaba, Sun Art

By Ming Lu

  • BYD released its result estimate for 2023, in which net profit rose by 74% to 86% over 2022.
  • Li auto delivered 31,165 vehicles in January 2024, up by 106% over 2023.
  • As per rumors reported in the media, Alibaba will sell RT-Mart, a supermarket brand.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: High Risk/Return Trade Setup

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
  • There are 10 stocks in inclusion zone and 11 in deletion zone. There should be 10 changes since that is the cap for the maximum changes at a single rebalance.
  • The potential adds and deletes are down between 37-47% over the last 6 months and a long/short trade could provide superior risk-adjusted returns.

Hong Kong Exchanges – Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Even the company itself shows in its recent presentation that a substantial portion of its revenue growth was due to rising rates on its cash deposit balances. This should wane.
  • The company’s effective tax rate moved from 14% in the past few years, when it was stable to 10% in most recent period, this is not a core positive attribute.
  • Geopolitical risk, economic malaise in both Hong Kong and China, can lead to less interest in the market, trading, placements, perhaps suggesting its 6x PB is not warranted?

Cheng Family Seeks Board Control Of Giordano (709 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of Giordano International (709 HK), the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors. 
  • Sino Wealth, a Cheng family’s vehicle with 24.06% of shares, has requisitioned an SGM to remove CEO Peter Lau, and install Colin Currie as CEO, plus appoint three other NEDs/INEDs.
  • If this were to come to pass, the family would have (almost) effective control of the board. The vote will be close. And David Webb is now below 5%. 

China Medical System (867 HK) – A Wise Choice in a Bear Market

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • CMS’s way of in-licensing products has shifted from CSO model to asset-purchase model so as to enhance control on the assets. But the transformation hasn’t been recognized by the market.     
  • Despite outstanding fundamentals, CMS’s valuation remains low. Doubts about the Company’s real R&D capabilities/core competitiveness and the negative image due to past financial fraud could be the reasons.
  • CMS would encounter performance headwinds in 2023/2024 due to VBP, but revenue/profit growth is expected to pick up in 2025. It’s still a good defensive choice in a bear market.

HashKey Group secures US$100M in Series A financing, turns unicorn | e27

By e27

  • HashKey Group, an end-to-end digital asset financial services group based in Hong Kong, has completed a Series A financing round of nearly US$100 million at a pre-money valuation of over US$1.2 billion.
  • The round attracted new and existing investors, including prominent institutional investors, leading Web3 institutions, and strategic partners.
  • The group will use the money to accelerate the product diversification of its licensed business in Hong Kong and drive development globally.

Morning Views Asia: Hopson Development

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: SK Innovation, Ssangyong Cement Industrial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Innovation: Announces Share Cancellation of Nearly 4.92 Million Shares
  • Ssangyong C&E (003410 KS): Hahn & Co’s Tender Offer


SK Innovation: Announces Share Cancellation of Nearly 4.92 Million Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • On 5 February, SK Innovation (096770 KS) announced a large-scale shares cancellation of 4.92 million shares, representing 4.9% of outstanding shares. 
  • This is the first ever large scale shares cancellation for SK Innovation since it was first established in 2011.
  • All in all, despite the company’s disappointing results in 2023, the large scale share cancellation should help to support SK Innovation’s share price in the coming weeks. 

Ssangyong C&E (003410 KS): Hahn & Co’s Tender Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Today, 5 February, PE-outfit Hahn & Co commenced its Tender Offer for the 20.1% of shares not held in cement manufacturer Ssangyong C&E (003410 KS).
  • The Tender Offer price is ₩7,000/share, a 9.2% premium to last close; although shares did gain ~12.2% just prior to the Offer.
  • There is no minimum acceptance condition. Hahn & Co will purchase all shares tendered. Payment is the 8 March. This will trade tight. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars