Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• With the review period for the March rebalance complete, there could be 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 13.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 28.6bn. Four inclusions will have over 1x ADV to buy; five deletions will have 2.5x+ ADV to sell.
• The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 28.6% over the last month. With positioning from a rebalance perspective mostly done, gradually unwind over the next few weeks.

• State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) has reported its 3Q24 (Dec-23) results with a one-off pension and wages revision charge which impacts the short-term earnings profile.
• Medium-Term ROE Forecast Intact (16% to 18%) with management confident of even touching 20% in next couple of years; loan growth forecast of 14% to 16% for FY25e-FY26e.
• We reiterate our view: P/BV is cheap at 1.3x FY25e. SBIN has the potential to re-rate to P/BV of ~1.6x FY25e in the near term (~40% upside). Opportunity to ADD.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Bharti Airtel
• Guangzhou R&F Properties
• UPL Ltd

In FY23 Information Services Corporation (ISC) remained on a positive trajectory of securing new contracts and customers, despite prevailing macroeconomic headwinds and a subdued Canadian property market. We expect this momentum to continue in FY24, bolstered by the Services division, the key organic engine of the group. Management has reaffirmed FY23 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance of C$207–212m (Edison: C$210m) and C$71–76m (Edison: C$75m), respectively. In addition, FY24 guidance has been introduced; our FY24e adjusted EBITDA estimate of C$90m falls within the guided range of C$83–91m, while our conservative FY24e revenue estimate of C$230m is marginally below the guided C$240–250m range. We will update our estimates following the release of FY23 results in early March.

Secure Trust Bank’s (STB’s) Q423 trading update showcased a robust performance with net loans of £3.3bn, up 13.6% y-o-y. The bank reaffirmed that it is on track to deliver £5m in annualised cost savings in FY24 through its ongoing cost optimisation programme. Despite rising deposit costs, STB’s net interest margin (NIM) remained flat with H123 at 5.4%. STB’s disclosure of modest exposure to discretionary commissions in motor finance lending should be a relief to investors, as the ongoing Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) investigation has been an uncertainty overhanging the sector. Our underlying continuing PBT estimates fell by 2% on marginally lower NIM expectations. Meanwhile, we have reduced our continuing PBT estimate by 7% to £41.7m as we have included a £2.3m exceptional cost related to the FCA’s Borrowers in Financial Difficulty industry-wide review. Our FY24 estimates are unchanged.

Target Healthcare REIT’s Q224 update shows indexed rent reviews driving increased earnings and property values. Tenant profitability continues to strengthen, reflected in a new high level of rent cover and a continuing high level of rent collection. Quarterly DPS, increased by 2% at the start of FY24, is now well covered by adjusted earnings.