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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting C, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Immix Biopharma Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Med (570 HK): Third Time’s the Charm as Sinopharm Revives Its Interest?
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – Will This Privatization Rumor Come True ?
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (8 Feb 2024): Tigermed, East Buy, Kingkey Financial
  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead
  • Immix Biopharma – Increased legroom following common-only raise


China Traditional Chinese Med (570 HK): Third Time’s the Charm as Sinopharm Revives Its Interest?

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that Sinopharm is reviving its interest in privatising China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)/CTCM. Sinopharm has contacted banks about financing and is considering partnering with other investors.
  • Sinopharm’s best bet is to partner with Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH) and privatise through a scheme. In this scenario, no disinterested shareholder would hold a blocking stake.
  • Due to Sinopharm’s previous privatisation attempts, shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – Will This Privatization Rumor Come True ?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We once again heard privatization rumor of China TCM, but China TCM denied it at this stage. We still recommend investors to remain vigilant until receive definite official announcement.
  • One important background of privatization is the integration of SOE carried out in recent years. We do not rule out the possibility that Taiji Group would drive this privatization.
  • It may not be an optimal time for the proposal of privatization by major shareholders. Other shareholders may not want to give up high-quality stocks, which makes privatization challenging.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (8 Feb 2024): Tigermed, East Buy, Kingkey Financial

By David Blennerhassett


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead

By Tina Banerjee

  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported 5% YoY decline in core revenue in 2023, due to the decrease in the supply of COVID-19 treatment Ronapreve to the government.
  • For 2024, Chugai expects core revenue to decline mainly due to the absence of Ronapreve revenue and decline in Actemra export. However, operating and net profits are expected to increase.
  • Hemlibra export and new launches such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Polivy, and Alecensa are expected to drive long-term growth of the company.

Immix Biopharma – Increased legroom following common-only raise

By Edison Investment Research

Immix Biopharma has announced a $15m (gross), fully underwritten equity issue. The company will use the proceeds to fund clinical trials for lead CAR-T asset NXC-201, as well as to meet working capital and general corporate needs. Immix had a net cash balance of $19.6m at end September 2023 and we estimate that this capital injection will potentially extend the cash runway to end FY25 or early FY26, past the top-line readouts from its Phase Ib/IIa clinical trials for NXC-201 (NEXICART-1), which, if positive, could pave the way for a partnering deal. We view the release of further rolling data from the trial and first patient dosing in the US (NEXICART-2) across H124 as potentially key upcoming catalysts for the company.


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Daily Brief Financials: New World Development, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Digital Core REIT, Japan Post Holdings, Bank Mandiri Persero, American International Group, BV Financial Inc, New York Community Bank, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Marsh & Mclennan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • New World Development (17 HK): Stock Trading Cheap as Passive Selling Nears
  • Rule Changes to Swap Ratio Calculations for Merger Swaps in Korea
  • Digital Core REIT Placement – Taking a Turn for the Better After All the Negative News
  • Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Going Places!
  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Setting the Pace in 2024
  • American Airlines: Corporate Recovery and Shift to Internet-based Channels! – Major Drivers
  • Bv Financial Inc (BVFL) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • US Banking Groundhog Day?
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Rally: WEEKLY Resistance Levels
  • Marsh & McLennan Companies: Client-Centric Approach


New World Development (17 HK): Stock Trading Cheap as Passive Selling Nears

By Brian Freitas

  • New World Development (17 HK) stock has continued to drop and the decrease in market cap should result in selling from passive trackers at the end of the month.
  • New World Development (17 HK) has underperformed its peers and now trades at cheaper valuations on most parameters.
  • Passive trackers will need to sell over 100m shares of New World Development. That could provide liquidity for investors that see value and for shorts to cover their positions.

Rule Changes to Swap Ratio Calculations for Merger Swaps in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Financial Services Commission plans to delegate merger swap ratio determination to corporate autonomy. Initially, only mergers between non-affiliated companies will be affected, with potential extension to affiliate mergers later.
  • The Financial Services Commission aims to start the legislative process in mid-February and complete the amendment by the third quarter of this year.
  • This change will enhance trading dynamics by decreasing the likelihood of prices aligning with the ratio just before merger announcements due to pre-information leakage.

Digital Core REIT Placement – Taking a Turn for the Better After All the Negative News

By Ethan Aw

  • Digital Core REIT (DCREIT SP) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its primary placement. The proceeds will be used to fund potential acquisitions and debt repayment. 
  • The deal will be a large one to digest at 72.7 days of three month ADV and 12.8% dilution.
  • In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Going Places!

By Rikki Malik

  • A company that is geared to Japan’s macro revival with additional micro catalysts. 
  • Ownership of financial companies which are set to benefit from a normalisation of Japanese monetary policy.
  • The low Price to Book means the company will need to keep up momentum on its capital management plans to  stay in the Prime Section of Topix.

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Setting the Pace in 2024

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. 
  • The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.
  • Bank Mandiri‘s guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.

American Airlines: Corporate Recovery and Shift to Internet-based Channels! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The American Airlines Group reported adjusted pretax profit of $257 million for the fourth quarter and approximately $2.5 billion for the full year 2023.
  • This result was driven by the strength of the network, demand for products, and execution by the team.
  • Positive indications from the group include historically strong operation with the production of record free cash flow and a strengthened balance sheet through debt reduction.

Bv Financial Inc (BVFL) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • BV Financial recently completed its conversion from a mutual holding company to a full-converted stock company.
  • The bank has consistently achieved a return on equity of 10-11% in recent years.
  • Despite its significant growth, BV Financial’s securities represent only 5% of its total assets of $933 million.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


US Banking Groundhog Day?

By Fallacy Alarm

  • March 2023 was a noteworthy month for US stock market investors. It was one of only two significant corrections in an otherwise stellar year.
  • The other one was in October driven by an interest rate scare.
  • Usually a cocktail of several reasons is needed to create a correction. These typically involve technical, seasonal and fundamental/macro factors.

EQD | KOSPI 200 Rally: WEEKLY Resistance Levels

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX last week displayed and impressive bounce, maybe too impressive, too quick, too fast.
  • A short-selling ban is in place until June 2024 for this market, but that does not mean it cannot pull back: according to our models the KOSPI 200 INDEX is OVERBOUGHT.
  • We expect a pullback next week, unless the index closes this week down, in that case SHORT resistance levels will be reset.

Marsh & McLennan Companies: Client-Centric Approach

By Baptista Research

  • Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc.
  • wrapped up the 2023 fiscal year with strong results, underscoring the firm’s robust organic and inorganic growth strategies.
  • Total revenue for the year was $22.7 billion, marking a growth of 10%.

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Most Read: Budweiser Brewing APAC , Lawson Inc, L’Occitane, Nissan Motor, New World Development, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, China Traditional Chinese Medicine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang
  • The Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure – KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private
  • Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Here We Go Again
  • Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Updates – Lack of Ampere Listing Brings Back the US$4bn Overhang
  • New World Development (17 HK): Stock Trading Cheap as Passive Selling Nears
  • An Optimal Way to Sourcing and Screening Data for Low PBR Theme Stocks in Korea
  • Quiddity Primer for KOSPI 200 Index Rebal Events (2024)
  • China Traditional Chinese Med (570 HK): Third Time’s the Charm as Sinopharm Revives Its Interest?
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – Will This Privatization Rumor Come True ?


Bud APAC (1876 HK): Nursing a Hangover; Now Comes a Passive Overhang

By Brian Freitas


The Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure – KDDI and MitCorp to Take It Private

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, just before the close, the Nikkei sprung a headline saying KDDI Corp (9433 JP) would take over Lawson Inc (2651 JP). The stock immediately headed to limit up. 
  • Post-Close, details emerged. KDDI will buy the 50% that MitCorp does not own, this will become a 50/50 JV. TOB launch at ¥10,360 will be in April. Squeezeout in September.
  • This appears to be the Next Step in Lawson’s Big Boots Adventure. The premium is too light. The price is too low. And that is not counting the synergies.

Lawson & KDDI: Not Just Because Japanese E-Commerce Is an Omnichannel Model

By Michael Causton

  • KDDI’s agreement with Lawson and Mitsubishi to make a tender offer for the convenience store chain is a game-changer for what has become a slow growth convenience store sector.
  • There are myriad potential synergies across e-commerce, new store types and also the promising new revenue stream of retail media. Lawson may be worth more than KDDI’s offer suggests.
  • And while Lawson may be behind Seven Eleven and Familymart, on some KPIs, like HQ revenues, it is No. 1 and also matches Seven Eleven on same-store sales.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Here We Go Again

By David Blennerhassett

  • From 2018 onward, French beauty retailer L’Occitane (973 HK) has apparently drawn interest from the likes of Advent International and its controlling shareholder Chairman Reinold Geiger – amongst others. 
  • There is substance to these “Offers” – Geiger confirmed in August 2023 he was contemplating a conditional voluntary general Offer. He holds 72.65% of shares out according to the HKEx. 
  • The latest news, with no definitive source, is that Blackstone is mulling the possibility of teaming up with Geiger on a buyout.

Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Updates – Lack of Ampere Listing Brings Back the US$4bn Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • One year ago we looked at the arrangement between Nissan (7201 JP) and Renault (RNO FP) regarding their relationship, which left Renault with a 28% Nissan stake to be sold.
  • Since then, Renault has undertaken one selldown but its recent announcement of Ampere’s listing cancellation once again raises the possibility of a further selldown of Nissan’s stake by Renault.
  • In this note, we talk about the updates since our previous note and the impact of the Ampere listing delay.

New World Development (17 HK): Stock Trading Cheap as Passive Selling Nears

By Brian Freitas

  • New World Development (17 HK) stock has continued to drop and the decrease in market cap should result in selling from passive trackers at the end of the month.
  • New World Development (17 HK) has underperformed its peers and now trades at cheaper valuations on most parameters.
  • Passive trackers will need to sell over 100m shares of New World Development. That could provide liquidity for investors that see value and for shorts to cover their positions.

An Optimal Way to Sourcing and Screening Data for Low PBR Theme Stocks in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • We can use KRX to access PER, PBR, and dividend yield. However, except for PER, the data, being based on the most recent information, limits its usefulness for proactive positions.
  • So, we should look into FnGuide, which aggregates and provides exclusive consensus data. This website also requires payment for access.
  • However, FnGuide provides some data for free, including PBR. Therefore, we can make use of this within the scope of its free offerings.

Quiddity Primer for KOSPI 200 Index Rebal Events (2024)

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • KOSPI 200 is also used as the underlying index for various financial products such as ETPs, ELS, index funds, and futures/options.
  • In this insight, we take a brief look at the index selection methodology and the historical price and volume performance of KOSPI 200 index rebalance baskets.

China Traditional Chinese Med (570 HK): Third Time’s the Charm as Sinopharm Revives Its Interest?

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that Sinopharm is reviving its interest in privatising China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)/CTCM. Sinopharm has contacted banks about financing and is considering partnering with other investors.
  • Sinopharm’s best bet is to partner with Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH) and privatise through a scheme. In this scenario, no disinterested shareholder would hold a blocking stake.
  • Due to Sinopharm’s previous privatisation attempts, shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – Will This Privatization Rumor Come True ?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We once again heard privatization rumor of China TCM, but China TCM denied it at this stage. We still recommend investors to remain vigilant until receive definite official announcement.
  • One important background of privatization is the integration of SOE carried out in recent years. We do not rule out the possibility that Taiji Group would drive this privatization.
  • It may not be an optimal time for the proposal of privatization by major shareholders. Other shareholders may not want to give up high-quality stocks, which makes privatization challenging.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Aekyung Chemical , Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, KT&G Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • An Optimal Way to Sourcing and Screening Data for Low PBR Theme Stocks in Korea
  • Quiddity Primer for KOSPI 200 Index Rebal Events (2024)
  • KOSPI200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for SsangyongC&E
  • Rule Changes to Swap Ratio Calculations for Merger Swaps in Korea
  • A First Major Class Action Lawsuit Against KT&G’s Directors by FCP + KT&G’s Results Analysis in 2023
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Rally: WEEKLY Resistance Levels


An Optimal Way to Sourcing and Screening Data for Low PBR Theme Stocks in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • We can use KRX to access PER, PBR, and dividend yield. However, except for PER, the data, being based on the most recent information, limits its usefulness for proactive positions.
  • So, we should look into FnGuide, which aggregates and provides exclusive consensus data. This website also requires payment for access.
  • However, FnGuide provides some data for free, including PBR. Therefore, we can make use of this within the scope of its free offerings.

Quiddity Primer for KOSPI 200 Index Rebal Events (2024)

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • KOSPI 200 is also used as the underlying index for various financial products such as ETPs, ELS, index funds, and futures/options.
  • In this insight, we take a brief look at the index selection methodology and the historical price and volume performance of KOSPI 200 index rebalance baskets.

KOSPI200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Potential Replacements for SsangyongC&E

By Brian Freitas


Rule Changes to Swap Ratio Calculations for Merger Swaps in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The Financial Services Commission plans to delegate merger swap ratio determination to corporate autonomy. Initially, only mergers between non-affiliated companies will be affected, with potential extension to affiliate mergers later.
  • The Financial Services Commission aims to start the legislative process in mid-February and complete the amendment by the third quarter of this year.
  • This change will enhance trading dynamics by decreasing the likelihood of prices aligning with the ratio just before merger announcements due to pre-information leakage.

A First Major Class Action Lawsuit Against KT&G’s Directors by FCP + KT&G’s Results Analysis in 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the biggest news facing KT&G this year as been a class action lawsuit against KT&G’s directors by Flashlight Capital Partners.
  • KT&G announced that it will cancel 3.5 million shares (about 315 billion won) on 16 February, which represent 2.6% of its outstanding shares and 16.7% of treasury shares.
  • One of the major reasons why we remain positive on KT&G is that there is a relatively high probability of the company announcing cigarette price hikes in 2H 2024.

EQD | KOSPI 200 Rally: WEEKLY Resistance Levels

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX last week displayed and impressive bounce, maybe too impressive, too quick, too fast.
  • A short-selling ban is in place until June 2024 for this market, but that does not mean it cannot pull back: according to our models the KOSPI 200 INDEX is OVERBOUGHT.
  • We expect a pullback next week, unless the index closes this week down, in that case SHORT resistance levels will be reset.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Digital Core REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Digital Core REIT Placement – Taking a Turn for the Better After All the Negative News


Digital Core REIT Placement – Taking a Turn for the Better After All the Negative News

By Ethan Aw

  • Digital Core REIT (DCREIT SP) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its primary placement. The proceeds will be used to fund potential acquisitions and debt repayment. 
  • The deal will be a large one to digest at 72.7 days of three month ADV and 12.8% dilution.
  • In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Mandiri Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Setting the Pace in 2024


Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) – Setting the Pace in 2024

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. 
  • The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.
  • Bank Mandiri‘s guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief United States: The Walt Disney Co, Soybean Active Contract, BV Financial Inc, KLA-Tencor Corp, American International Group, New York Community Bank, Southwest Airlines Co, Intel Corp, L3Harris Technologies , Frontier Group Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Part 1
  • [Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean
  • Bv Financial Inc (BVFL) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023
  • KLA Corporation: Leading Edge Investments and Memory Conversions & Other Major Drivers
  • American Airlines: Corporate Recovery and Shift to Internet-based Channels! – Major Drivers
  • US Banking Groundhog Day?
  • Southwest Airlines: Recovering Demand and Network Optimization! – Major Drivers
  • Intel Corporation: Solid Advances in AI and the Cloud & Other Major Drivers
  • L3Harris Corporation: Accelerating Demand in Aerojet Rocketdyne As A Major Growth Catalyst!
  • Frontier Airlines – 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets


The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Part 1

By Value Punks

  • Not so long ago, Disney’s share price was nearing the $200 mark, despite the pandemic’s severe impact on its Parks and Resorts business.
  • Fast forward to the present, and even with the parks posting record results, Disney’s share price has fallen to levels not seen in a decade, raising the question: what happened?
  • Several factors are at play, including challenges within the studio arm, ongoing decline of its legacy media operations, and Big Tech’s incursion into sports media.

[Counting Beans #7] Collapse in Crush Margins Yet Another Blow for Soybean

By Pranay Yadav

  • Depressed Soybean crush margin to deal a further blow to Soybean demand.
  • The outlook for Soy Meal and Soy Oil is better than the outlook for Soybean.
  • Important production guidance updates from CONAB and USDA this week. Expectations point to lower production and lower consumption. 

Bv Financial Inc (BVFL) – Monday, Nov 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • BV Financial recently completed its conversion from a mutual holding company to a full-converted stock company.
  • The bank has consistently achieved a return on equity of 10-11% in recent years.
  • Despite its significant growth, BV Financial’s securities represent only 5% of its total assets of $933 million.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


KLA Corporation: Leading Edge Investments and Memory Conversions & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • KLA Corporation saw a revenue of nearly $9.7 billion in 2023, marking a decrease of 8% compared to the previous year.
  • Despite less leading-edge investment in both logic and memory, legacy node customers and the semiconductor infrastructure assisted in exceeding the initially projected revenue.
  • Business segments such as automotive, specialty semiconductor process equipment, and infrastructure for wafer and mass manufactures experienced growth in 2023.

American Airlines: Corporate Recovery and Shift to Internet-based Channels! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The American Airlines Group reported adjusted pretax profit of $257 million for the fourth quarter and approximately $2.5 billion for the full year 2023.
  • This result was driven by the strength of the network, demand for products, and execution by the team.
  • Positive indications from the group include historically strong operation with the production of record free cash flow and a strengthened balance sheet through debt reduction.

US Banking Groundhog Day?

By Fallacy Alarm

  • March 2023 was a noteworthy month for US stock market investors. It was one of only two significant corrections in an otherwise stellar year.
  • The other one was in October driven by an interest rate scare.
  • Usually a cocktail of several reasons is needed to create a correction. These typically involve technical, seasonal and fundamental/macro factors.

Southwest Airlines: Recovering Demand and Network Optimization! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Southwest Airlines Co.’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings underscored some significant strides the company has taken over the past year, balanced by the ongoing challenges that the airline industry continues to face.
  • In terms of the positive highlights, CEO Bob Jordan commended the company for its impressive resilience, noting that they had successfully implemented a comprehensive winter weather action plan, fully staffed their operation, and restored their network following a disruptive winter storm in 2022.
  • Furthermore, the company saw improvement in almost every operational metric, maintained a 99% completion factor across the year, and secured nine labor agreements in a year.

Intel Corporation: Solid Advances in AI and the Cloud & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the fourth quarter of 2023, Intel managed to display consistent progress towards its Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM) 2.0 transformation.
  • This implied effective execution of its strategy to reestablish process leadership and fostering product execution.
  • Revenue exceeded expectations for the fourth consecutive quarter due to the company’s focus on driving operating leverage and managing expenses, thereby meeting the cost savings commitment for fiscal year 2023.

L3Harris Corporation: Accelerating Demand in Aerojet Rocketdyne As A Major Growth Catalyst!

By Baptista Research

  • Through the fourth quarter 2023, earnings call at L3Harris Technologies showed healthy financial results accompanied by strong performance in its various portfolios.
  • The company reported a significant $23 billion in orders, marking a record increase, and a doubling of its backlog to $33 billion since the merger.
  • This growth trajectory was propelled by key U.S. Army awards and notable progress in satellite awards.

Frontier Airlines – 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

By Neil Glynn

  • Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.
  • Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.
  • We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to >$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC’s ability to thrive with higher costs.

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Daily Brief India: Nameson Holdings, KPIT Technologies, ENN Natural Gas and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Sands China, Tata Motors ADR, UPL Ltd
  • KPIT: On Track to Beat the FY24 Raised Guidance
  • Morning Views Asia: ENN Natural Gas, UPL Ltd


Morning Views Asia: Sands China, Tata Motors ADR, UPL Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


KPIT: On Track to Beat the FY24 Raised Guidance

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Despite upping the FY24 guidance in the prior quarter (Q2FY24), KPIT is confident of beating even the raised guidance, led by strong Q3FY24 performance and an upbeat outlook.
  • Despite accelerated revenue in H1FY24 from the Honda engagement, Q3FY24 saw robust revenue growth of 4.3% QoQ in CC terms. EBITDA margin expanded to 20.6% vs 20% QoQ. 
  • KPIT’s new venture, Qorix, is coming along well and could prove to be transformative. This could enable KPIT to become a product company, alongside being a high-growth service company.

Morning Views Asia: ENN Natural Gas, UPL Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , New World Development, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Kerry Logistics Network, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, ENN Natural Gas, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting C and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth
  • New World Development (17 HK): Stock Trading Cheap as Passive Selling Nears
  • China Traditional Chinese Med (570 HK): Third Time’s the Charm as Sinopharm Revives Its Interest?
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – Will This Privatization Rumor Come True ?
  • Kerry Express (KEX TB)’s MTO Update
  • CaiNiao’s FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers
  • Morning Views Asia: ENN Natural Gas, UPL Ltd
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (8 Feb 2024): Tigermed, East Buy, Kingkey Financial


Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY and its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points YoY in 3Q24.
  • We believe the company turned its focus from margin improvement to revenue growth.
  • We set the upside at 20% and the price target at HK$90 for March 2025. Buy.

New World Development (17 HK): Stock Trading Cheap as Passive Selling Nears

By Brian Freitas

  • New World Development (17 HK) stock has continued to drop and the decrease in market cap should result in selling from passive trackers at the end of the month.
  • New World Development (17 HK) has underperformed its peers and now trades at cheaper valuations on most parameters.
  • Passive trackers will need to sell over 100m shares of New World Development. That could provide liquidity for investors that see value and for shorts to cover their positions.

China Traditional Chinese Med (570 HK): Third Time’s the Charm as Sinopharm Revives Its Interest?

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that Sinopharm is reviving its interest in privatising China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)/CTCM. Sinopharm has contacted banks about financing and is considering partnering with other investors.
  • Sinopharm’s best bet is to partner with Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH) and privatise through a scheme. In this scenario, no disinterested shareholder would hold a blocking stake.
  • Due to Sinopharm’s previous privatisation attempts, shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – Will This Privatization Rumor Come True ?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We once again heard privatization rumor of China TCM, but China TCM denied it at this stage. We still recommend investors to remain vigilant until receive definite official announcement.
  • One important background of privatization is the integration of SOE carried out in recent years. We do not rule out the possibility that Taiji Group would drive this privatization.
  • It may not be an optimal time for the proposal of privatization by major shareholders. Other shareholders may not want to give up high-quality stocks, which makes privatization challenging.

Kerry Express (KEX TB)’s MTO Update

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 29th December 2023, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN) announced it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB).
  • Given S.F. Holding (002352 CH) holds a 51.5% stake in KLN, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie, triggering an unconditional MTO. The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. 
  • Thai SFC approval has now been satisfied.  The MTO should commence around the 13th Feb. with payment ~26th March. KLN, cum-entitlement to KEX, is the 19 Feb.

CaiNiao’s FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers

By Daniel Hellberg

  • CaiNiao’s revenue growth remained strong, up +24% Y/Y in December quarter
  • EBITA turned positive from loss in prior year period, but margin < FYQ2
  • Overall, an impressive set of results that distinguishes CaiNiao from express peers

Morning Views Asia: ENN Natural Gas, UPL Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


HK CEO & Director Dealings (8 Feb 2024): Tigermed, East Buy, Kingkey Financial

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Japan: Japan Post Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Chugai Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Going Places!
  • Is Japan’s Culture the Psychology of Managers Who Prefer to Keep Cash on Hand over Higher ROE?
  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead


Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Going Places!

By Rikki Malik

  • A company that is geared to Japan’s macro revival with additional micro catalysts. 
  • Ownership of financial companies which are set to benefit from a normalisation of Japanese monetary policy.
  • The low Price to Book means the company will need to keep up momentum on its capital management plans to  stay in the Prime Section of Topix.

Is Japan’s Culture the Psychology of Managers Who Prefer to Keep Cash on Hand over Higher ROE?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While many companies have disclosed enhanced shareholder returns, dividend payout ratio in 30% range and no increase, and 4% increase in total dividends from the previous year, is not enough.
  • Since DOE remains at just under 3% same as the previous year, few companies allocate enough cash to dividend to reduce Shareholder’s Equity, and consequently ROE is expected to lower.
  • Cash on hand in September is at all-time high. Behind the ROE, which shows no sign of rising, is the psychology of managers who want to keep cash on hand.

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead

By Tina Banerjee

  • Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported 5% YoY decline in core revenue in 2023, due to the decrease in the supply of COVID-19 treatment Ronapreve to the government.
  • For 2024, Chugai expects core revenue to decline mainly due to the absence of Ronapreve revenue and decline in Actemra export. However, operating and net profits are expected to increase.
  • Hemlibra export and new launches such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Polivy, and Alecensa are expected to drive long-term growth of the company.

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