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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 10
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Softbank Group, STMicroelectronics NV and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank Group – Earnings Flash – Q3 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Stmicroelectronics Nv (STM) – Friday, Nov 10, 2023

Softbank Group – Earnings Flash – Q3 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Softbank Group’s (SBG) Q3/23-24 results were positive as expected, with decent investment gains, a significant increase in NAV, along with stable and healthy LTV. The development came on the back of strong equity markets, at least in the US. Conversely, portfolio diversification has worsened severely. SBG intends to maintain share buybacks while actively making investments.

Stmicroelectronics Nv (STM) – Friday, Nov 10, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • STMicroelectronics, originally named SGS Microelettronica, was founded in 1977. Carlo Bozotti started working at the company and eventually became its CEO.
  • Bozotti implemented a restructuring plan during his tenure to enhance financial performance and concentrate on core businesses.
  • Under Bozotti’s leadership, STMicroelectronics made strategic acquisitions and divestments to solidify its position in the semiconductor market. The company is now renowned for its analog and power semiconductor products.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Panoro Energy ASA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Rig contract terminated in EG: Inconsequential blip

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Rig contract terminated in EG: Inconsequential blip

By Auctus Advisors

  • The rig contract in EG has been terminated by Trident Energy (the operator) on safety concerns with the Blow Out Preventers not working properly.
  • We understand that there are suitable rig(s) available that are being considered as potential alternatives.
  • The three well drilling campaign (followed by the drilling of the high impact Akeng Deep prospect) could restart during 2Q24 (subject to an alternative rig being secured).

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Regional Container Line, Cathay Pacific Airways, Copa Holdings SA, Japan Elevator Service Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Regional Container Line (RCL)
  • Cathay Pacific – Strong Pax Momentum Suggests 2024 Can Outperform Expectations
  • Copa Holdings – A Slow-Growth Year in 2024 – Impressive Gain on Pre-Pandemic Economics Sustainable?
  • Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Business Model Generating Value and Proving Resilient

Asian Dividend Gems: Regional Container Line (RCL)

By Douglas Kim

  • Regional Container Line is the largest container shipping company in Thailand. It has attractive valuations, strong balance sheet, and has a major tailwind of higher global shipping freight rates. 
  • RCL’s dividend yield averaged 9.6% from 2019 to 2022. The biggest factor driving higher shipping freight rates in 2024 has been the Suez crisis resulting from Houthi drone attacks. 
  • We used Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener system to find Regional Container Line (RCL TB).

Cathay Pacific – Strong Pax Momentum Suggests 2024 Can Outperform Expectations

By Neil Glynn

  • Cathay Pacific’s strong end to 2023 has been well flagged but we think expectations are too low for 2024.
  • ANA, JAL and Korean Air have each seen unit pax revenue momentum accelerate into calendar 4Q23 which bodes well for 2024 prospects, particularly as manpower challenges slow capacity restoration.
  • Our 2024 EBITDAR is 5% ahead of consensus while we are 11% ahead at the net income level.

Copa Holdings – A Slow-Growth Year in 2024 – Impressive Gain on Pre-Pandemic Economics Sustainable?

By Neil Glynn

  • Copa’s 2023 EBITDAR of $1,117m was achieved while growing unit revenues, while capacity expanded 13% with a 17% unit fuel cost tailwind. Not an easy feat.
  • In 2024, we expect only 5% EBITDAR growth on 10% capacity growth as unit revenues decline (following the emergence of this theme in 2H23) and EBITDAR-level unit costs grow.
  • We model Copa’s EBITDAR/ASM premium to 2019 down to a still-impressive 35% in 2024 but new route selection and efficiency will need to be strong to sustain these economics.

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544) – Business Model Generating Value and Proving Resilient

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Solid execution, high earnings visibility – Q1-3 FY3/2024 results demonstrated a continuation of positive developments in 1) sustained growth in maintenance and repair services, and 2) stronger than expected demand for modernization services.
  • We believe JES is providing in-demand high-quality services driven by secular growth as building owners convert to reputable independent providers for cost management, and structural demand driving modernization of aging elevators.
  • The company is on track to increase service capacity with the new JES Innovation Center Kansai (JIK) due to commence operations in April 2024.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Nissin Foods Holdings, Taste Gourmet, Redrow PLC, Garrett Motion, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power
  • Taste Gourmet Q3 2024: Good Performance Cruise Into Q4 with Catalysts
  • Barratt Redrow Plc, the Land Banker
  • GTX: Preview of Hybrid Year
  • Increasing Pressure from Investors for Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary (Inc. Affiliates) Listings

Japan Consumer Staples Update: Inflation Looks a Blessing in Disguise for Those with Pricing Power

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Inflation, having peaked at 4.3% in January 2023, has been on a downward trend throughout the year, with figures dropping to 2.8% in November and further to 2.6% by December.
  • In this insight, we analyze the recent quarterly performance of Yakult Honsha (2267 JP), Nissin, and Seven & I, Japanese Consumer Staples companies discussed in our prior Smartkarma Original.
  • While Nissin Foods Holdings (2897 JP) showcased excellent performance, Yakult and Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) faced struggles in their recent quarters.

Taste Gourmet Q3 2024: Good Performance Cruise Into Q4 with Catalysts

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) reported revenue of 37% YoY Q3 2024, with profits up 37% YoY (  lower than our 50% YoY estimate). 9M FY23 revenue/profits were up 43%/43% YoY. 
  • We look forward to the mainboard listing. We believe the process will commence when FY24 results are out in June. 
  • The stock trades at 5.8x PE FY24e, with a potential dividend yield of 8.5% and cash around 26% of its market capitalization at 147.7 mn HKD.

Barratt Redrow Plc, the Land Banker

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The slowdown in the house market in the UK in the last 12 months has increased the likelihood of seeing more consolidation in the house-building sector.
  • Redrow’s 24,565 plots have attracted a large buyer paying (with paper) a hefty premium to secure land. The land bank should cover house building production for just over four years. 
  • I believe the deal will ultimately succeed, although the CMA may take a closer look thus delaying the deal beyond H2 2024. Gross spread is 3.4%.

GTX: Preview of Hybrid Year

By Hamed Khorsand

  • In the weeks since our last update on GTX, there have been several quarterly reports suggesting a cooling in inventory purchases.
  • We are reducing our 2024 estimates to better align expectations with the reality of how companies related to the auto industry have been reporting.  
  • In the year ahead, GTX should benefit from a higher Euro to US Dollar exchange rate and the auto industry depending less on electric vehicles and more on hybrid.

Increasing Pressure from Investors for Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary (Inc. Affiliates) Listings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There are 167 companies of 1,784 companies in Metrical Universe (12/2023) with major shareholders holding over 50% stake, and 605 companies with major shareholders holding between 20% and 50% stake.
  • TSE has requests listed parent companies, listed subsidiaries, and affiliates to disclose the significance of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings. This will further increase pressure for the dissolution of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings.
  • Hitachi’s transformation into value-creating company, which once spawned numerous listed subsidiaries, has been a success story since it began full-fledged “selection and concentration” process through the dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Financials: New York Community Bank, NET Lease Office Properties, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • NY Community Bancorp’s Problems in the Rent-Stabilized Market
  • NLOP: A Contrarian Deep Value Asset Story
  • EQD | NIFTY’s Uncertainty: The Rally Could Pause for 1 More Week

NY Community Bancorp’s Problems in the Rent-Stabilized Market

By Odd Lots

  • New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) saw its shares plunge nearly 40% after missing on earnings per share, cutting dividends, and increasing reserves for bad loans. The bank specifically cited issues with commercial real estate and multifamily loans.
  • There is a debate over whether NYCB’s troubles are idiosyncratic or indicative of broader issues in the banking sector. Similar debates have occurred with other troubled banks in recent years.
  • The real estate market, particularly in multifamily housing, has been a topic of concern. A previous episode of the podcast featured a New York landlord who stated that the golden age of being a landlord was over and talked about potential downsides in the market. Additionally, factors such as rising interest rates and affordability crises in New York City contribute to the challenges in the market.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

NLOP: A Contrarian Deep Value Asset Story

By Hamed Khorsand

  • We are initiating coverage of Net Lease Office Products (NLOP) with a Buy Rating and $60 target.
  • NLOP is trading at a fraction of its book value as the Company gets lumped into the negative investor sentiment towards office buildings.
  • NLOP was created and spun out of W. P. Carey (WPC) to oversee the liquidation of 59 office properties.

EQD | NIFTY’s Uncertainty: The Rally Could Pause for 1 More Week

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index was supposed to continue its rally but has stalled a bit this week.
  • This modest pullback could be a buy-the-dip opportunity, based on our WEEKLY models reading.
  • The price support area to buy is between the Last WEEKLY Close and  21229.

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Feb 10
0

Most Read: DISCO Corp, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde, Benefit One Inc, Pacific Metals, ITC Ltd, Woori Financial Group , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Pasona Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive
  • China ETF Inflows & Impact: Concentrated, Then Diversified; Central Huijin Steps Up
  • Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One (2412) – We Have a Deal! Bumped Small
  • Pasona (2168) – Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San
  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Murakami-San Does a Rug-Pull on Pac Metals (5541)…. Again
  • ITC Ltd (ITC IN): Impact of BAT’s Potential Stake Sale
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP) Prevails with a JPY2,173 Offer
  • Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies
  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: L&F (066970) Likely To Miss Out on Fast Entry in March
  • Get Your Pasona (2168 JP) Rump For Free

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive

By Brian Freitas

China ETF Inflows & Impact: Concentrated, Then Diversified; Central Huijin Steps Up

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly US$37bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 2 January and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market. Central Huijin has announced their ETF buying.
  • Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including CSI 300, SSE50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, STAR50 and Chinext50 indices.
  • While the inflows were initially focused on the CSI 300, there has been a diversification recently with big inflows to the SSE50, CSI 500, CSI 1000 and ChiNext indices.

Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One (2412) – We Have a Deal! Bumped Small

By Travis Lundy

  • Post-Close, the Nikkei carried a breathless headline that Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) had agreed a deal for Pasona Group (2168 JP)‘s stake in Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). 
  • Not long afterwards, TDNet Filings provided Benefit One results, a change to BeneOne’s Opinion on the M3 Offer, and Board Resolution to Support/Recommend DIL’s TOB, now at ¥2,173 and ¥1,526/share.
  • Looks like a done deal. And this will also likely delay the start of the DIL Bid to 26-28 February timeframe.

Pasona (2168) – Less Wrong Than Before But How Wrong Still Depends on Nambu-San

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced a TOB for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) having agreed a deal with Pasona Group (2168 JP) to sell into a buyback.
  • Pasona will get ¥1,526/share, and having agreed, it announced the expected special profit to be booked in the FY to 31 May 2024.
  • At ¥113.6bn on a consolidated basis (¥122.3bn on parent), less ¥1.165bn of associated costs, that’s ¥112.4bn at the lower end. That’s ¥2,870/share. Then there’s the rest of the business.

JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Murakami-San Does a Rug-Pull on Pac Metals (5541)…. Again

By Travis Lundy

  • A couple of weeks ago I wrote here about noted activist Murakami-san and his new 5+% position in Pacific Metals (5541 JP). I warned it might be a rug pull. 
  • It turns out, from subsequent filings, that it may have been a rug pull. This isn’t the first time. It isn’t even the first time on this stock. 
  • That said, there are goings on here, and it pays to watch them. 

ITC Ltd (ITC IN): Impact of BAT’s Potential Stake Sale

By Brian Freitas

  • British American Tobacco (BATS LN) owns 29.03% of ITC Ltd (ITC IN) and could sell a portion of its stake. But BAT will hold at least 25% of the company.
  • British American Tobacco (BATS LN) paring its stake could also lead to SUUTI gradually reducing its own holding in the company.
  • Any stake sales would not result in buying from global passive trackers while there will be small buying from local index trackers. Increased float could pressure the stock.

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP) Prevails with a JPY2,173 Offer

By Arun George

  • Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has recommended Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)’s revised offer of JPY2,173, a 2.4% and 90.1% premium to the previous offer and undisturbed price, respectively.
  • The Board and Pasona Group (2168 JP) secured the highest price. M3 Inc (2413 JP) tabled an alternative proposal but Pasona had concerns about the plan’s tax treatment.
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 31.6% minority acceptance rate, achievable due to the high premium and the competitive bidding process.  

Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies

By Sanghyun Park

  • Stake sales by Affinity and Bearing PE are attractive due to the absence of special partnerships with Shinhan Financial Group, indicating favorable exit potential at current stock prices.
  • KB Financial draws attention due to Carlyle’s ₩240B EB investment in 2020. Carlyle can now convert to shares at ₩48,000/share, yielding 37.08%.
  • Woori Financial is intriguing. IMM PE and Eugene PE hold stakes, investing ₩450B and ₩386B respectively. Their yields are 32.55% and 10.45% respectively. No constraints on divestment.

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: L&F (066970) Likely To Miss Out on Fast Entry in March

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
  • There could be up to four changes in the KOSPI 200 index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event including an intra-review fast entry change.

Get Your Pasona (2168 JP) Rump For Free

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dai Ichi (8750 JP) agreed with Pasona (2168 JP) for Pasona to sell its shares back to Benefit One (2412 JP) in a buyback after Dai-Ichi’s Tender Offer for Benefit.
  • This process gives Pasona a tax advantage versus selling into a Tender Offer at the same price.
  • What does Pasona take home? ~¥2,822/share versus its last price of ¥2,733/share. Then you have stubs ops (conservatively worth up to ~¥1,960/share) and Pasona’s stake in Bewith (9216 JP) (~¥360/share).

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief ESG: Increasing Pressure from Investors for Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary (Inc. Affiliates) Listings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Increasing Pressure from Investors for Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary (Inc. Affiliates) Listings

Increasing Pressure from Investors for Dissolution of Parent-Subsidiary (Inc. Affiliates) Listings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There are 167 companies of 1,784 companies in Metrical Universe (12/2023) with major shareholders holding over 50% stake, and 605 companies with major shareholders holding between 20% and 50% stake.
  • TSE has requests listed parent companies, listed subsidiaries, and affiliates to disclose the significance of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings. This will further increase pressure for the dissolution of parent-subsidiary (affiliates) listings.
  • Hitachi’s transformation into value-creating company, which once spawned numerous listed subsidiaries, has been a success story since it began full-fledged “selection and concentration” process through the dissolution of parent-subsidiary listings.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:JD/BABA/PDD/700 HK/LKNCY and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:JD/BABA/PDD/700 HK/LKNCY
  • GenAI Through A COO Lens
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/ZLAB/9995 HK/BGNE/9926 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/ATAT/TCOM/1211 HK/LI/NIO/XPEV
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 09/02/2024
  • China’s Software Service Providers Cut Costs, Prices as Investors Pull Back

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:JD/BABA/PDD/700 HK/LKNCY

By Ying Pan

  • JD/BABA/PDD : JD increases salaries for customer service staff (-)
  • 700 HK: News has surfaced indicating that Tencent is in the process of developing a mobile game adaptation of “Elden Ring.” (+) 
  • 700 HK/LKNCY: Tencent’s <Dream Star> has collaborated with Luckin Coffee for a co-branding initiative (+)

GenAI Through A COO Lens

By The Bid

  • The podcast features Lance Bronstein, head of Aladdin engineering at BlackRock, and Rob, discussing the impact of AI on business operations.
  • They highlight the importance of using technology to amplify human capabilities and redefine roles, while also focusing on upskilling the workforce and recalibrating risk management and client interactions.
  • They acknowledge that AI is not a new concept, but the recent advancements in data, compute power, and technology have enabled transformative changes in how people interact with computers, particularly through language and conversation.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/ZLAB/9995 HK/BGNE/9926 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK/ATAT/TCOM/1211 HK/LI/NIO/XPEV

By Eric Wen

  • ATAT/TCOM: Tourism: Local government will issue RMB600mn travel consumption subsidies during CNY(+)
  • 9995 HK/BGNE/9926 HK/1801 HK/1877 HK:The National Medical Insurance Administration issued new regulations on the initial price of newly launched drugs to protect the independent pricing of innovative drugs.(/)
  • 300750 SZ：Porsche’s new Taycan doubles cruising range, uses CATL Shenxing battery(+)

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 09/02/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Receiving EIA approval for onshore drilling in Morocco – Chariot has received approval for its EIA for a total of 20 well at Loukos, onshore Morocco.
  • The approval covers the initial drilling campaign of two exploration wells (Gaufrette and Dartois) as well as 17 further well locations and the re-entry of an existing gas discovery.
  • Operations are expected to start at the end of 1Q24 as indicated previously.

China’s Software Service Providers Cut Costs, Prices as Investors Pull Back

By Caixin Global

  • China’s cloud software vendors are feeling the brunt of the sharpest drop in venture capital (VC) investment in the sector in a decade, with many rushing to cut prices or costs to tide them over.
  • The country’s current 13 software as a service (SaaS) unicorns — startups valued at more than $1 billion — raised just 495 million yuan ($69 million) from investors last year, the lowest amount since 2014, according to ITjuzi, a domestic provider of data on tech companies and investments, based on announced deals.
  • The amount pales in comparison to the peak of 9.3 billion yuan they raised in 2021, when the Covid pandemic boosted demand for digital services.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Credit: Softbank Group – Earnings Flash – Q3 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank Group – Earnings Flash – Q3 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group – Earnings Flash – Q3 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Softbank Group’s (SBG) Q3/23-24 results were positive as expected, with decent investment gains, a significant increase in NAV, along with stable and healthy LTV. The development came on the back of strong equity markets, at least in the US. Conversely, portfolio diversification has worsened severely. SBG intends to maintain share buybacks while actively making investments.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Regional Container Line and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Regional Container Line (RCL)

Asian Dividend Gems: Regional Container Line (RCL)

By Douglas Kim

  • Regional Container Line is the largest container shipping company in Thailand. It has attractive valuations, strong balance sheet, and has a major tailwind of higher global shipping freight rates. 
  • RCL’s dividend yield averaged 9.6% from 2019 to 2022. The biggest factor driving higher shipping freight rates in 2024 has been the Suez crisis resulting from Houthi drone attacks. 
  • We used Smartkarma’s Smart Score Screener system to find Regional Container Line (RCL TB).

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