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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report: Charting Key Trends of India’s IPO Boom and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report: Charting Key Trends of India’s IPO Boom
  • Chinese Solar Firms Bleed Losses Amid Worsening Glut and Falling Prices
  • # 57 India Insight: Adani $10 Bn Semiconductor Plant, Reliance Bonus Issue, FAME III Incentives
  • SA Listed Property and Fund Snapshot – August 2024
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 06/09/2024

Thematic Report: Charting Key Trends of India’s IPO Boom

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s IPO boom is bucking the global trend with highest ever IPOs in H12024; thanks to strong inflows and investor confidence.
  • SEBI’s report show flipping trend with 54% of investors have sold their IPO bound stocks within a week of listing.
  • 2024 has been the golden year for all the stakeholders considering better listing gains and returns along with number of opportunities available.

Chinese Solar Firms Bleed Losses Amid Worsening Glut and Falling Prices

By Caixin Global

  • China’s solar manufacturers have seen their bottom line severely hit by a deepening industry glut that has triggered a brutal price war.
  • Several companies published first-half results on Friday, showing worsening profitability as the industry grapples with plunging prices.
  • Longi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd., China’s largest solar wafer producer, reported a net loss of 5.2 billion yuan ($732 million) for the first six months, a sharp reversal from the 9.2 billion-yuan net profit recorded a year earlier.

# 57 India Insight: Adani $10 Bn Semiconductor Plant, Reliance Bonus Issue, FAME III Incentives

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani-Tower JV to Set Up $10 Billion Semiconductor Plant in Maharashtra
  • Reliance Industries’ 1:1 Bonus Shares Announcement and Stock Perfor mance  
  • Centre Plans Incentives for Electric Ambulances and Police Vehicles under FAME III

SA Listed Property and Fund Snapshot – August 2024

By Garreth Elston

  • The South African All Property Index (J803) continued its strong run in August, rising 8.37% for the month.
  • The All Property Index’s 2024 Total Return is now up 23.91%. 
  • Investor in South African Listed Property are finally reaping the rewards for their patience through a long and difficult down-cycle for the sector.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 06/09/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price C$5.80 per share: Initiating coverage – Condor Energies is a ~US$75 mm market cap TSX-listed company focused on low carbon and energy transition opportunities in Central Asia.
  • Condor was transformed in 2024 by the acquisition of >10 mboe/d production of natural gas in Uzbekistan.
  • The key value driver for the shares is the imminent sanction of Condor’s 1st liquefaction plant in Kazakhstan to convert low-cost natural gas into high value LNG to displace expensive diesel for rail and mining haul truck transportation.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

By Joe Jasper

  • The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
  • We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&P 500, Japan’s TOPIX, and Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 to “roll over near current or marginally higher levels.”
  • Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief ECM: Midea Group: Initial Thoughts on the Hong Kong IPO Listing and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Group: Initial Thoughts on the Hong Kong IPO Listing
  • Hero Motors Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Midea Group: Initial Thoughts on the Hong Kong IPO Listing

By Douglas Kim

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) is getting ready for a Hong Kong IPO listing, trying to raise at least US$3 billion.
  • Midea Group is trading a relatively attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 11.8x, EV/EBITDA of 8.1x, and P/B of 2.5x based on 2024 consensus earnings estimates.
  • In the past five days, Midea’s price is down 2.3%. Some investors have been selling shares in Midea due to concerns about higher discount price offered at HK IPO listing.  

Hero Motors Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Hero Motors Limited (2313904Z IN) is looking to raise about US$110m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, DAM Cap and JM Fin.
  • Hero Motors (HML) is an integrated powertrain systems provider offering comprehensive solutions for designing, prototyping, validating, developing, and delivering system-level transmission solutions for electric as well as nonelectric powertrains.
  • According to CRISIL, it was among the first companies in India to capitalize on the global e-bike powertrain opportunity and have a distinct first mover advantage in this industry.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV
  • Key Flow Trading Opportunities After KRX Suddenly Added POSCO Holdings to the BBIG Battery Mix
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 OVERSOLD, It Could Bounce This Week

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV

By David Blennerhassett

  • After publishing my insight (Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading “Cheap”) last week, my NAV calcs were called into question by some readers, when compared to street estimates.
  • Which is cool. I’m big enough to admit mistakes, where needed. So I’ve done some digging, including a back and forth with Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP).
  • The upshot? I have not lead you astray. You’ve been coming to the right place.

Key Flow Trading Opportunities After KRX Suddenly Added POSCO Holdings to the BBIG Battery Mix

By Sanghyun Park

  • Got surprised by KRX adding POSCO Holdings to the Battery Index. Normally predictable rebalancing went off-script with this unexpected move.
  • POSCO Holdings, not Posco Future M, replaced Ecopro BM. Plus, Alteogen Inc is replacing SK Biopharmaceuticals in the BBIG, driving notable flow.
  • Consider a day trading long POSCO Holdings and short Ecopro BM. Also, a long-short futures basket could be worth exploring for names with big passive flows.

EQD | KOSPI 200 OVERSOLD, It Could Bounce This Week

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 has corrected for 3 weeks in a row, reaching a low at 340.08 last week. It is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, according to our models.
  • In a previous insight we theorized the index could go higher (but only for 1 week), however the rally never materialized. From there it went downhill, now it can bounce.
  • The support area between the last Close and 320 offers strong support, according to our WEEKLY pattern models. 

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: HDFC Bank: Looking Beyond Reported Numbers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC Bank: Looking Beyond Reported Numbers
  • Intel Cancels 20A. Now Why Would They Go & Do That?
  • The Beat Ideas: How Ganesha Ecosphere Is Shaping the Future of Recycling?
  • AMD Acquires ZT Systems for $4.9B, Challenging NVIDIA in the AI Infrastructure Market
  • PDD Holdings Inc.: How Are They Managing Competition and Consumer Demand? – Major Drivers
  • Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ), the Value and Growth Pick
  • ITMG IJ: Steady Coal Prices, Mine Life Upgrade, 43% of the Mkt Cap in Cash and 11% Dividend Yield
  • Kangwon Land: Regulatory Improvements to Result in Higher Earnings and Valuation Multiples Expansion
  • Didi Invests $94 Million in Smart Cockpit Developer
  • Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%

HDFC Bank: Looking Beyond Reported Numbers

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Post merger, HDFC Bank (“HDFCB”) has been under pressure in regards to sustaining its loan growth, which very much hinges on rapid deposit growth.
  • While the deposit growth has been weak, it has been an industry-wide issue. Furthermore, at times, the period-end numbers can be misleading.
  • Focusing on average numbers paints a better picture of growth. Looking at the averages, deposit growth has been strong at 4.6% QoQ, despite liquidity issues in the banking system.

Intel Cancels 20A. Now Why Would They Go & Do That?

By William Keating

  • Intel’s CFO says the company is going to “kind of skip over productizing 20A”
  • This decision removes an important, looming milestone from Intel’s roadmap, i.e. the ramp of Arrow Lake later this year
  • The decision to outsource all Arrow Lake tiles, apart from final packaging, strongly suggests that Intel 3 and Intel 18A are not capable of a cost-competitive volume ramp

The Beat Ideas: How Ganesha Ecosphere Is Shaping the Future of Recycling?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Ganesha Ecosphere (GNPL IN) is expanding from textiles to FMCG packaging with rPET granules, aiming for a 10-12% market share in the recycled PET market by 2029.
  • The shift to high-margin rPET products and expansion into FMCG packaging aligns with regulatory trends and growing demand for sustainable materials.
  • GEL’s strategic focus on high-value, sustainable products and robust market position suggests significant growth potential and improved profitability.

AMD Acquires ZT Systems for $4.9B, Challenging NVIDIA in the AI Infrastructure Market

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • The acquisition positions AMD to capitalize on the booming AI infrastructure market, which is expected to grow to $372.9 billion by 2029, leveraging ZT Systems’ hyperscale computing and integration capabilities.  
  • AMD will use ZT Systems’ experience in AI infrastructure deployment for cloud providers like AWS and Azure, helping it compete with NVIDIA’s 70% market share and Intel’s data center push.
  • Analysts expect the acquisition to be financially accretive by 2025, with ZT Systems enabling AMD to provide comprehensive AI solutions, boosting its presence in the cloud, AI, and enterprise sectors.

PDD Holdings Inc.: How Are They Managing Competition and Consumer Demand? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PDD Holdings, Inc. has shared their financial results for the second quarter of 2024 along with an overview of strategic actions and challenges.
  • The company saw substantial revenue growth, with total revenue reaching RMB 97 billion, marking an 86% year-on-year increase.
  • This significant growth stems mainly from robust online marketing and transaction services.

Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ), the Value and Growth Pick

By Victor Galliano

  • Negara value attributes, its growth potential captured by its low PEG ratio and its improving efficiency ratio all stand out; pre- and post-provision returns edged higher, with high NPL coverage
  • We are also positive on Mandiri for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its strong credit quality metrics; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio after mega-cap Bank Central Asia
  • Bank Mega has seen credit quality stabilise in 2Q24, but its returns are under pressure, with the efficiency ratio worsening steadily; cost of risk is likely to increase going forward

ITMG IJ: Steady Coal Prices, Mine Life Upgrade, 43% of the Mkt Cap in Cash and 11% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) recently announced an underwhelming 1228 Rph/share dividend for H1 FY24 (implying a 9% annualized yield).
  • Core profits for H1 2024 were 157 mn USD ( excluding 21 mn USD forex and a six mn USD write-off). We are confident of sequential improvement in earnings. 
  • The company has deep value: 43% of its market cap is in cash, its PE is 5.7x, and its yield, based on a 65% payout ratio, is 11%.

Kangwon Land: Regulatory Improvements to Result in Higher Earnings and Valuation Multiples Expansion

By Douglas Kim

  • Kangwon Land has received approval to expand its total casino area from 14,512 square metres previously to 20,260 square metres (up 40%). 
  • The betting limits in the foreign players only zone will increase significantly from 300,000 won (about US$225) to 300 million won (about US$225,000). This represents a 1000x increase.
  • We would argue that there is a high probability of Kangwon Land benefiting not just from higher sales and profits but also from higher valuation multiples. 

Didi Invests $94 Million in Smart Cockpit Developer

By Caixin Global

  • Didi Global Inc. is investing 670 million yuan ($94 million) in an affiliated firm of digital mapping company NavInfo Co. Ltd. (002405.SZ -3.09%) and has moved its team responsible for smart cockpit development to the venture, as the Chinese ride-hailing giant takes another step away from carmaking to streamline its business.
  • Beijing-based Didi’s smart transportation arm will take a 16.46% stake in AutoAI (Nanjing) Technologies Co. Ltd., becoming its second-largest shareholder, NavInfo said in a Shenzhen Stock Exchange filing dated Wednesday.
  • NavInfo, AutoAI’s largest shareholder, will also invest an additional 100 million yuan in AutoAI, diluting its stake from 30.29% to 27.01%, the filing said.

Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Revenue’s surged 47% YoY, driven by a 200% increase in infrastructure software revenue. Despite strong revenue growth, the company posted a $1.88B net loss due to a $4.5B tax provision
  • AI revenue is projected to grow by 10% sequentially in Q4, surpassing $3.5B, and is expected to total $12B for fiscal 2024. VMware annualized booking value increased 32% QoQ.
  • Despite beating Q3 estimates, Broadcom’s Q4 revenue guidance of $14B fell short of the $14.04B expected by analysts. This led to a 7% drop in shares post-earnings.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Macro: Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 6 Sep 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 6 Sep 2024
  • US: A Harder Landing and Fed’s Response
  • Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (6 Sep 2024)
  • HEW: Landing 25bp Across the Pond
  • US August Nonfarm Payroll Suggests Only 25 Bps Rate Cut

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 6 Sep 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • U.S. PMI dropped to 47, sparking concerns about slowing economic activity ahead of the expected interest rate cut.
  • India’s economy continues to outperform Asia, with a PMI of 57 and strong Q2 GDP growth.
  • Hong Kong’s property sector faces challenges, with weak earnings reports from New World and Sun Hung Kai.

US: A Harder Landing and Fed’s Response

By Alex Ng

  • Though our baseline view is for a soft landing for the U.S. economy and only one 25bps cut by end 2024, uncertainty exists over the scale of the slowdown. 
  • If the U.S. economy has a harder landing (stagnation/technical recession with 20-25% probability), then the Fed could likely cut the Fed Funds rate to 2.50% or below in 2025.  
  • A skew exist to lower Fed Funds depending on the outcome of the economy.  

Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (6 Sep 2024)

By Alex Ng

  • US S&P 500 declined by 1.85% in the past week and Hong Kong Hang Seng was down 2.34%, and Hong Kong typhoon leads to trade halt on Friday.
  • Our strategy did not change in the past week, still holding on long PLTR call, long Link Reit (HKG:0823) call, and shorting Tracker Fund (HKG: 2800) call.
  • Except we have taken some profit by selling Link Reit call, which increase quite handsomely as underlying rose by over 3% in the middle of the week.

HEW: Landing 25bp Across the Pond

By Phil Rush

  • The US unemployment rate has dropped and wage growth has increased, which should lead the Federal Reserve to a 25bp cut in September. Other central banks have also ceased leaning towards dovish surprises.
  • The upcoming ECB decision is anticipated to result in a 25bp deposit rate cut and further adjustments to the refi and lending rates as the corridor narrows.
  • UK GDP and labour market data, as well as US inflation, are other significant highlights to look out for.

US August Nonfarm Payroll Suggests Only 25 Bps Rate Cut

By Alex Ng

  • August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k.
  • However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.3%, a reversal of July’s dip.
  • This suggests a 25bps FOMC easing in September rather than 50bps.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Australia: EML Payments Limited and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EML Payments – Back to basics

EML Payments – Back to basics

By Edison Investment Research

EML Payments’ FY24 results were the first to show the full impact of the liquidation of PFS Card Services Ireland Limited (PCSIL). Continuing operations, which exclude PCSIL, saw gross debit volume (GDV) growth of 18%, revenue growth of 18% and underlying EBITDA growth of 34%. The sale of Sentenial has since completed with proceeds of A$53.4m, moving EML to a net cash position. Management is now focused on moving back to a growth mindset in the remaining business and optimising the cost base post the disposals. Shifting away from the medium-term targets given in February, management expects to disclose more at its AGM in November. We have reduced our FY25 forecasts to reflect the more modest EBITDA guidance and to remove the Sentenial business.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Biopharmaceuticals , Kangwon Land, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Flow Trading Opportunities After KRX Suddenly Added POSCO Holdings to the BBIG Battery Mix
  • Kangwon Land: Regulatory Improvements to Result in Higher Earnings and Valuation Multiples Expansion
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 OVERSOLD, It Could Bounce This Week

Key Flow Trading Opportunities After KRX Suddenly Added POSCO Holdings to the BBIG Battery Mix

By Sanghyun Park

  • Got surprised by KRX adding POSCO Holdings to the Battery Index. Normally predictable rebalancing went off-script with this unexpected move.
  • POSCO Holdings, not Posco Future M, replaced Ecopro BM. Plus, Alteogen Inc is replacing SK Biopharmaceuticals in the BBIG, driving notable flow.
  • Consider a day trading long POSCO Holdings and short Ecopro BM. Also, a long-short futures basket could be worth exploring for names with big passive flows.

Kangwon Land: Regulatory Improvements to Result in Higher Earnings and Valuation Multiples Expansion

By Douglas Kim

  • Kangwon Land has received approval to expand its total casino area from 14,512 square metres previously to 20,260 square metres (up 40%). 
  • The betting limits in the foreign players only zone will increase significantly from 300,000 won (about US$225) to 300 million won (about US$225,000). This represents a 1000x increase.
  • We would argue that there is a high probability of Kangwon Land benefiting not just from higher sales and profits but also from higher valuation multiples. 

EQD | KOSPI 200 OVERSOLD, It Could Bounce This Week

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 has corrected for 3 weeks in a row, reaching a low at 340.08 last week. It is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, according to our models.
  • In a previous insight we theorized the index could go higher (but only for 1 week), however the rally never materialized. From there it went downhill, now it can bounce.
  • The support area between the last Close and 320 offers strong support, according to our WEEKLY pattern models. 

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Negara Indonesia Persero, Indo Tambangraya Megah and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ), the Value and Growth Pick
  • ITMG IJ: Steady Coal Prices, Mine Life Upgrade, 43% of the Mkt Cap in Cash and 11% Dividend Yield

Indonesian Banks Screener; Bank Negara (BBNI IJ), the Value and Growth Pick

By Victor Galliano

  • Negara value attributes, its growth potential captured by its low PEG ratio and its improving efficiency ratio all stand out; pre- and post-provision returns edged higher, with high NPL coverage
  • We are also positive on Mandiri for its quality attributes, its premium returns, and its strong credit quality metrics; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio after mega-cap Bank Central Asia
  • Bank Mega has seen credit quality stabilise in 2Q24, but its returns are under pressure, with the efficiency ratio worsening steadily; cost of risk is likely to increase going forward

ITMG IJ: Steady Coal Prices, Mine Life Upgrade, 43% of the Mkt Cap in Cash and 11% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) recently announced an underwhelming 1228 Rph/share dividend for H1 FY24 (implying a 9% annualized yield).
  • Core profits for H1 2024 were 157 mn USD ( excluding 21 mn USD forex and a six mn USD write-off). We are confident of sequential improvement in earnings. 
  • The company has deep value: 43% of its market cap is in cash, its PE is 5.7x, and its yield, based on a 65% payout ratio, is 11%.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Jardine Matheson Holdings, Singtel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV
  • Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV

By David Blennerhassett

  • After publishing my insight (Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading “Cheap”) last week, my NAV calcs were called into question by some readers, when compared to street estimates.
  • Which is cool. I’m big enough to admit mistakes, where needed. So I’ve done some digging, including a back and forth with Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP).
  • The upshot? I have not lead you astray. You’ve been coming to the right place.

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

By Joe Jasper

  • The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
  • We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&P 500, Japan’s TOPIX, and Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 to “roll over near current or marginally higher levels.”
  • Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.

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