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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 14
0

Daily Brief China: Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology Co Ltd, I-Mab and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • I-Mab to Divest Chinese Assets and Business Operations for up to $80M – An Escape by Crafty Scheme

Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology Co Ltd (1482194D CH) is looking to raise >US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Morgan Stanley and CICC.
  • Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology (ZTMT) is a digital solution provider for the life sciences R&D and commercialization sector.
  • As per the CIC report in the application proof, the firm was the largest digital solution provider for life sciences R&D and commercialization in China in terms of 2022 revenue.

I-Mab to Divest Chinese Assets and Business Operations for up to $80M – An Escape by Crafty Scheme

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • I-MAB claimed that this divesture is the best strategic choice to respond to the overall environment of China and the US. I-MAB needs to make changes to appease investors.
  • The real situation is not as beautiful as it seems.This divesture means I-MAB US has actually been “hollowed out”, which is a big blow to I-MAB US and its investors. 
  • With R&D team/production base, I-MAB Hangzhou is able to tell more good stories in the future, which has completed C1 round financing and plans to IPO in A-share or HKEX.

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Feb 14
0

Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Shareholder Proposals Likely a Focus at 2024 AGM Are ROE, P/B, and Parent-Subsidiary Listings

Shareholder Proposals Likely a Focus at 2024 AGM Are ROE, P/B, and Parent-Subsidiary Listings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With ISS’s plan to resume ROE criteria and TSE’s mention of P/B, more shareholder proposals calling for stronger shareholder returns due to stagnant stock prices and ROEs can be expected.
  • Since over 30% of listed companies have major shareholders holding 20% or more of their interests, the voting behavior of domestic institutions is key to the passage of shareholder proposals.
  • With TSE’s disclosure request regarding the significance of parent-subsidiary listings, this matter will become another focus of the AGM in business portfolio reform and securing the interests of minority shareholders.

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief Utilities: YTL Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Southeast Asia EM: Potential Passive Flows in February

Southeast Asia EM: Potential Passive Flows in February

By Brian Freitas

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Recruit Holdings, AP Moeller – Maersk A/S, Avon Rubber PLC, Ww Grainger Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea: Surging Share Cancellations in 2024
  • Recruit: HR Tech Top Line Further Declines; No Big Impact From Indeed Plus in the Near Term
  • Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful ‘Glass Half-Full’ Investors
  • Avon Protection – Unmasking its growth potential
  • W.W. Grainger: Adapting to E-commerce: Strategic Shifts in Distribution and Pricing! – Major Drivers

Korea: Surging Share Cancellations in 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the surging share cancellations in Korea in 2024. As of 8 February 2024, Korean companies have announced 3.3 trillion won worth of shares to be completed this year. 
  • At current blistering pace, it is likely that the share cancellations in Korea could jump at least 100% YoY to jump more than 10 trillion won in 2024. 
  • Some of the leading Korean companies including Samsung C&T and KT&G that have announced share cancellations this year continue to outperform the market on average. 

Recruit: HR Tech Top Line Further Declines; No Big Impact From Indeed Plus in the Near Term

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 3QFY03/2024 results on Friday. Revenues decreased YoY due to decline in HR Tech revenues, while Adj. EBITDA for the quarter increased YoY. Both Beat consensus estimates.
  • Weakening of labour markets and new pricing model have impacted HR Tech revenues, while cut down on investments have helped improve HR Tech margins.
  • The company has launched Indeed Plus to help improve earnings, which we don’t expect to have a major impact on Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ’s earnings in the near term.

Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful ‘Glass Half-Full’ Investors

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance
  • FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes
  • Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues

Avon Protection – Unmasking its growth potential

By Edison Investment Research

Avon Protection’s capital markets day highlighted its continued focus on medium-term margin expansion (targeting operating margin of 14–16%), concentrating on its core business of respirators and head protection. The unwinding of the armour business, alongside the consolidation of Team Wendy (acquired in H220) should enable Avon to benefit from rising global defence spending. Its strong relationship with the US DoD, and organic growth opportunities with recurring revenue from necessary product replacements, should bolster its medium-term target for ROIC to exceed 17%, which would surpass the average of UK defence peers.

W.W. Grainger: Adapting to E-commerce: Strategic Shifts in Distribution and Pricing! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • W.W. Grainger had a robust fourth quarter and full year for 2023, securing record sales and earnings for the year.
  • The firm’s strategic focus on delivering optimum customer experience and service played a substantial role in this success.
  • Grainger invested heavily in technology and supply chain enhancements to support its operations, particularly in its High-Touch Solutions model, which has seen a significant digital transformation.

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, JSR Corp, Maithan Alloys, Gold, PetroTal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: How to Gain $10 in Three Months
  • Merger Arb Mondays (12 Feb) – JSR, Benefit One, Lawson, Welbe, YSK, Hollysys, Silver Lake
  • Maithan Alloys (NSE:MAITHANALL) – Monday, Nov 13, 2023
  • Bullion Ballet: Trading the Gold Platinum Ratio
  • PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Replacing >165% of 2P Reserves in 2023

Global Commodities: How to Gain $10 in Three Months

By At Any Rate

  • Observable crude inventories in key regions have steadily drawn down, reaching 40 million barrels below December levels.
  • Global onshore crude inventory is at a record low of 4.4 billion barrels, signaling increased demand.
  • Refinery runs and healthy refinery cracks and margins are drawing down on crude inventories, supported by strong gasoline cracks.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Merger Arb Mondays (12 Feb) – JSR, Benefit One, Lawson, Welbe, YSK, Hollysys, Silver Lake

By Arun George

Maithan Alloys (NSE:MAITHANALL) – Monday, Nov 13, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Maithan Alloys is a leading manufacturer of Manganese (Mn) alloys used in the production of hardened steel.
  • The company operates three plants in India and recently acquired a fourth, indicating its growth and expansion in the industry.
  • India, where Maithan Alloys is based, is the largest exporter of Mn alloys in the world, providing 25% of global imports, and maintains its position as a low-cost supplier despite structural disadvantages.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Bullion Ballet: Trading the Gold Platinum Ratio

By Pranay Yadav

  • Gold platinum ratio (“GPR”) measures the price of gold relative to platinum. it is affected by recessions, monetary policy, and stock market returns.
  • GPR has been rising since 2008, it has outperformed gold and platinum individually since 2006 and other gold spreads (gold-silver, gold-palladium, gold-copper) since 2000. 
  • The outlook for both gold and platinum remains uncertain. A bullish view of the GPR looks more favorable.

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Replacing >165% of 2P Reserves in 2023

By Auctus Advisors

  • YE23 1P, 2P and 3P reserves were estimated at 48 mmbbl, 100 mmbbl and 200 mmbbl respectively.
  • This represents an increase of 6%, 4% and 19% respectively compared to YE22.
  • The YE23 1P and 2P reserves estimates imply a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 150% and 167% during 2023.

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Softbank Group, China Mobile, GDS Holdings , Silicon Motion Technology, ARM Holdings, Ubiquiti Inc., NortonLifeLock, Charter Communications and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank (9984 JP): Relying on Arm Strength and JPY Weakness
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Feb 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Near Multi-Yr Wides, Narrow AH Premia Wider
  • Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place
  • Silicon Motion Memory Readthrough: NAND Flash to Remain In Shortage; Up-Cycle to Persist
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL
  • ARM: Short Squeeze
  • UI: Inventory & Free Cash Flow
  • Gen Digital Inc: Product Portfolio
  • Charter Communications: The Reasons Behind Their Stagnant Growth and What It Means for Your Internet! – Major Drivers

Softbank (9984 JP): Relying on Arm Strength and JPY Weakness

By Victor Galliano

  • We believe that Arm is now valued as a “growth at any price” stock; with nearly half of SoftBank group’s equity value reliant on Arm, NAV downside risk is rising
  • The risk of JPY appreciation is real, whilst SVF2 remains very exposed to financing costs, with 85% of its equity value in private companies
  • Softbank shares trade at a 55%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet the downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential JPY appreciation, should keep the discount wide

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Feb 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Near Multi-Yr Wides, Narrow AH Premia Wider

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average rose so Hs underperformed As by 1.75%. Narrow premia pairs saw AH premia rise most.
  • Watch the SOE stock price KPI space. Wouldn’t be short SOEs vs Privates on H/A basis. Low-hanging fruit with some SOEs having large cash balances.

Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • The index changes for HSTECH index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. 
  • In this insight, we take a final look at the expected index changes and our latest flow expectations.

Silicon Motion Memory Readthrough: NAND Flash to Remain In Shortage; Up-Cycle to Persist

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Silicon Motion reported results last week that beat consensus; Moreover, the company expects strong growth not just in 2024E, but also in 2025E.
  • The company’s growth will significantly exceed PC and mobile phone market growth thanks to strong memory demand trends within these segments.
  • The company sees NAND Flash in shortage into 2025E based on visibility into its client ecosystem. We continue to view SIMO as a next-wave play on the Memory recovery.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

By Travis Lundy

  • A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.
  • Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.

ARM: Short Squeeze

By Value Punks

  • ARM’s stock is up 110% YTD. We wrote about ARM a few months ago and reckoned that intrinsic value for ARM is a bit lower than the IPO price.
  • In hindsight, it was perhaps a limitation of our imagination than anything else.
  • We should have added the following in our analysis but did not: “Masa son understands capital markets.

UI: Inventory & Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • Ubiquiti (UI) reported fiscal second quarter (December) results showing sequential improvement in enterprise revenue while service provider remains a headwind for the business
  • Ubiquiti introduced several products in the December quarter which started to gain customer traction. There could be momentum in the March quarter as customers become familiar with the new products
  • The year over year revenue performance has been challenged with Ubiquiti lapping the initial customer enthusiasm about the Company having product in stock

Gen Digital Inc: Product Portfolio

By Baptista Research

  • Gen Digital, like all businesses, experienced both ups and downs in its third quarter of 2024.
  • Their fiscal year marked a tremendous opportunity for consumer cybersafety, with Genesis Digital consistently executing towards their goal.
  • They reported cybersafety bookings growing to $1 billion, up by 4%, cybersafety revenue up 3%, and their 18th consecutive quarter of growth.

Charter Communications: The Reasons Behind Their Stagnant Growth and What It Means for Your Internet! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In Q4 2023, Charter Communications witnessed a modest addition of 155,000 Internet customers and a notable increase of nearly 2.5 million Spectrum Mobile lines, boasting a growth close to 50%.
  • Despite these figures, the company’s revenue uplift was a meager 1%, with EBITDA inching up by just 1.3%—a figure that barely reaches 2.5% even when advertising dollars are set aside.
  • The endeavor to expand its Internet business within its current territory was met with significant hurdles, largely due to the relentless pressure from fixed wireless and wireline overbuild activities.

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Recruit Holdings, AP Moeller – Maersk A/S, Avon Rubber PLC, Ww Grainger Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea: Surging Share Cancellations in 2024
  • Recruit: HR Tech Top Line Further Declines; No Big Impact From Indeed Plus in the Near Term
  • Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful ‘Glass Half-Full’ Investors
  • Avon Protection – Unmasking its growth potential
  • W.W. Grainger: Adapting to E-commerce: Strategic Shifts in Distribution and Pricing! – Major Drivers

Korea: Surging Share Cancellations in 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the surging share cancellations in Korea in 2024. As of 8 February 2024, Korean companies have announced 3.3 trillion won worth of shares to be completed this year. 
  • At current blistering pace, it is likely that the share cancellations in Korea could jump at least 100% YoY to jump more than 10 trillion won in 2024. 
  • Some of the leading Korean companies including Samsung C&T and KT&G that have announced share cancellations this year continue to outperform the market on average. 

Recruit: HR Tech Top Line Further Declines; No Big Impact From Indeed Plus in the Near Term

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 3QFY03/2024 results on Friday. Revenues decreased YoY due to decline in HR Tech revenues, while Adj. EBITDA for the quarter increased YoY. Both Beat consensus estimates.
  • Weakening of labour markets and new pricing model have impacted HR Tech revenues, while cut down on investments have helped improve HR Tech margins.
  • The company has launched Indeed Plus to help improve earnings, which we don’t expect to have a major impact on Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ’s earnings in the near term.

Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful ‘Glass Half-Full’ Investors

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance
  • FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes
  • Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues

Avon Protection – Unmasking its growth potential

By Edison Investment Research

Avon Protection’s capital markets day highlighted its continued focus on medium-term margin expansion (targeting operating margin of 14–16%), concentrating on its core business of respirators and head protection. The unwinding of the armour business, alongside the consolidation of Team Wendy (acquired in H220) should enable Avon to benefit from rising global defence spending. Its strong relationship with the US DoD, and organic growth opportunities with recurring revenue from necessary product replacements, should bolster its medium-term target for ROIC to exceed 17%, which would surpass the average of UK defence peers.

W.W. Grainger: Adapting to E-commerce: Strategic Shifts in Distribution and Pricing! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • W.W. Grainger had a robust fourth quarter and full year for 2023, securing record sales and earnings for the year.
  • The firm’s strategic focus on delivering optimum customer experience and service played a substantial role in this success.
  • Grainger invested heavily in technology and supply chain enhancements to support its operations, particularly in its High-Touch Solutions model, which has seen a significant digital transformation.

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Zoetis Inc, Mettler-Toledo International I, Immix Biopharma Inc, Shanghai Medicilon and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Zoetis One-Pager
  • Mettler-Toledo Intl Inc (MTD) – Monday, Nov 13, 2023
  • Immix Biopharma – Updates galore: NXC-201 ODD (EU) and raise
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.12) – New Pricing Mechanism for Drugs, China Biotech M&A, Medicilon

Zoetis One-Pager

By From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

  • Zoetis is the global leader in the animal health industry. It discovers, develops, manufactures and commercializes medicines, vaccines, diagnostic products and services.
  • Zoetis counts with over 300 product lines, with 15 of them generating over 100M in annual sales.
  • The latter are called blockbusters, and the company holds

Mettler-Toledo Intl Inc (MTD) – Monday, Nov 13, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)

  • Mettler-Toledo attracts a wide range of customers, from large corporations to individual researchers, by providing significant value and profitability for the company.
  • The company’s business model is highly resilient, as 80% of its revenue comes from recurring sales of consumables, services, and software, ensuring stable cash flow.
  • Mettler-Toledo has a strong track record of innovation, developing new products and solutions that address customer needs and industry trends, such as automation and digitization. 

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Immix Biopharma – Updates galore: NXC-201 ODD (EU) and raise

By Edison Investment Research

Immix Biopharma has released back-to-back updates, including EU orphan drug designation (ODD) for its lead CAR-T asset NXC-201, addressing amyloid light chain amyloidosis (ALA), and pricing of its $15m equity raise. This follows on the heels of the ODD grant for its lead asset by the FDA for two indications, ALA and multiple myeloma (MM), in H223. The EU ODD includes up to 10 years of EU market exclusivity (post-approval), reduced regulatory fees and access to the EU centralized authorization procedure. Achieving ODD in ALA in the EU is a key step forward for the clinical development of NXC-201. We believe the next readout from the ongoing NEXICART-1 trial and dosing of patients at US trial sites (NEXICART-2) across H124 will be the key upcoming catalysts for the company.

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.12) – New Pricing Mechanism for Drugs, China Biotech M&A, Medicilon

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • NHSA’s new regulation on establishing a mechanism for pricing newly listed chemical drugs and encouraging high-quality innovation attracted widespread attention. However, it’s difficult to interpret this as an optimistic rule.
  • Although we see increasing interest in products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, it would be difficult for Chinese biotech to be acquired on a large scale in the foreseeable future.
  • Based on 2023 results, Medicilon has entered a vicious circle. Multiple sell-offs made us question the moral standards of management. The risk is high for this type of small/lower-tier CXO.

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief Financials: Abacus Storage King, USD, LIC Housing Finance, Nikkei 225, Custodian REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: ASK Looks Like a Delete
  • Global FX: Tariff Risks and US Exceptionalism Support the Dollar
  • LICHF: FY24 PAT Is on Track to Be Strong | FY25 Will Be a Year of Robust Growth
  • EQD | The Nikkei 225 Rally Can Continue But Resistance Is Near…
  • Custodian Property Income REIT – On track to meet dividend target

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: ASK Looks Like a Delete

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance ends in a couple of weeks. There could be one deletion from the index and a bunch of capping changes.
  • The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.2% resulting in a one-way trade of A$13m. There are two stocks with over A$3m to trade.
  • With market participants expecting lower interest rates, there has been short covering on a lot of the REITs in the last few months.

Global FX: Tariff Risks and US Exceptionalism Support the Dollar

By At Any Rate

  • The increase in news articles mentioning tariff and trade war risks is making it difficult for cyclical currencies like the euro to factor in any potential growth outside of the US.
  • US exceptionalism is evident in strong services ISM and relative equity performance, which is leading to the dollar’s dominance in capital flows.
  • The Chinese yuan is facing bearish sentiment due to double-digit drawdowns in onshore equity indices, deepening deflation, weak sentiment in the housing market, and limited policy options for policymakers. Outbound travel restrictions during the Chinese New Year season also add to the pressure on the currency. However, there have been some positive signs in financial flows, such as stabilization in equity flows and increased bond purchases by foreigners. Overall, the outlook for the yuan remains bearish.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

LICHF: FY24 PAT Is on Track to Be Strong | FY25 Will Be a Year of Robust Growth

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) reported a strong Q3FY24 on the back of a strong NIM. Growth, however, has been tepid as LICHF recently transitioned its technology and organizational structure.
  • FY24 has been a consolidation year due to technology and organizational changes; however, LICHF is setting up well to post strong growth in FY25.
  • Among other things, affordable housing is going to be a key growth area going forward. Asset quality has been also improving and should further normalize with recoveries and upgradations.

EQD | The Nikkei 225 Rally Can Continue But Resistance Is Near…

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been rising for 2 weeks and it is starting to be overbought.
  • The index may rise for another week (this week) according to our models, then the chances for a WEEKLY pullback will become substantial.
  • Look at resistance targets in the 37200-37900 price area to place SHORT trades, target 1 week, then close the trade.

Custodian Property Income REIT – On track to meet dividend target

By Edison Investment Research

Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) has released a trading update for the three months to 31 December 2023 (Q424). The quarterly DPS was fully covered by unaudited EPRA earnings and was in line with the full year target of at least 5.5p; at the current share price the target DPS reflects a yield of 8%.

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief Consumer: BYD , Zhongsheng Group, Tod’s SpA, Deckers Outdoor, SHEIN, Cocoa Futures, Church & Dwight Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024): Decent Net Momo Buying, Especially in Financials
  • Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue
  • Second Time Around
  • Deckers Brands: Initiation of Coverage – Why Their DTC Strategy Will Blow Your Mind! – Major Drivers
  • Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail
  • Cocoa Reaches All-Time High – First Time since 1960 // Crack Spreads continue to Diverge
  • Church & Dwight: Benefiting from Consumer Trade Down But Is It Enough? – Major Drivers

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024): Decent Net Momo Buying, Especially in Financials

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 16.1bn of A-shares on VERY strong average activity after +9.9bn and +12.1bn RMB the two weeks before. Some National Team buying this week.
  • Renewables selling was tempered. Finance and Industry saw large net buying. Five of the top ten buys among liquid NORTHBOUND stocks were finance. Info Tech saw net selling. Again. 

Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • The index changes for HSCEI index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. 
  • In this insight, I have shown how my flow expectations have changed since I published my last HSCEI insight on 6th December 2023.

Second Time Around

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The Della Valles and LVMH-backed L Catterton announced an agreement to launch a voluntary tender offer to buy 36% of Italian luxury group Tod’s SpA (TOD IM) at €43/share to take it private.
  • In spite of the 31% premium to the 3-month VWAP, and the loss of brand equity by Tod’s the offer seems cheap on a multiples basis, considering turnaround potential.
  • Considering a 95% squeeze-out threshold, 80.4% of the float must tender, which is high. A sweetening may be needed, although the offeror threatens with a merger with itself to delist.

Deckers Brands: Initiation of Coverage – Why Their DTC Strategy Will Blow Your Mind! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on global footwear and apparel major, Deckers Outdoor.
  • The company saw a strong fiscal third quarter for 2024, but the company did recognize certain risks and uncertainties that could potentially impact future performance.
  • Total company revenue saw an increased 16% to reach $1.56 billion, largely thanks to full-price consumer demand.

Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail

By Daniel Hellberg

  • The effects of SHEIN’s and Temu’s growth on US retail are already well known
  • But recent data points show the companies impacting other industries, too
  • Through their dramatic growth the two companies are gaining influence in US 

Cocoa Reaches All-Time High – First Time since 1960 // Crack Spreads continue to Diverge

By The Commodity Report

  • Cocoa Reaches All-Time High – First Time since 1960 A long-held commodity price record has fallen: The price of NY cocoa futures has surged to almost $5,400 a ton, surpassing the $5,379 peak in place since 1977 ( roughly 46 years ago).
  • Cocoa was one of the few commodities that hadn’t set a fresh nominal price record in the 2000s.
  • The current rally is fuelled by the El Nino weather phenomenon which is causing drier temperatures in West Africa, where three-quarters of the world’s cocoa is produced – this fundamental weather event has now led to a short squeeze situation in the cocoa futures market.

Church & Dwight: Benefiting from Consumer Trade Down But Is It Enough? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The investment thesis is based on the third-quarter results from Church & Dwight Co Inc.
  • The company recorded solid performance with reported revenue surpassing its outlook by 2.5% and organic revenue exceeding their expectations by 0.8%.
  • This marks its fourth consecutive quarter of posting robust results.

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