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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Macro: EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February
  • 5 Things We Watch: UK & US CPI, Gaza, JPY, and Banks
  • Indian Benchmark Indices
  • UK: Inflation Weighed Down in Jan-24
  • LATAM Momentum:  Global Funds Raise Exposure

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

By At Any Rate

  • The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.
  • The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.
  • China’s GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

5 Things We Watch: UK & US CPI, Gaza, JPY, and Banks

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

  • Hello Everybody and welcome back for our weekly 5 Things We Watch!
  • We dare say we have a diversified edition this week touching on everything from Japan to Gaza and New York Community Bank! Without further ado lets dive right into it!
  • This week’s 5 topics we follow closely:
    • UK CPI
    • Gaza ceasefire
    • US CPI
    • The USD rally and the JPY
    • Banking crisis 2.0?

Indian Benchmark Indices

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Technical Indicators and Sentiment Point to Potential Risks Amidst Strong Fundamentals
  • John Templeton famously stated, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.
  • ” While India’s economic prospects remain strong, several technical indicators and market sentiment suggest potential exuberance in the benchmark indices.

UK: Inflation Weighed Down in Jan-24

By Phil Rush

  • UK CPI inflation remained at 4% in January, undershooting expectations for an increase. However, this was primarily because of weighting changes to airfares and energy.
  • The median inflationary impulse was marginally above our forecast, and the RPI, which wasn’t reweighted in January, was only 0.1pp lower than we expected.
  • If sustained, these weighting changes will have an upward effect on CPI inflation later this year. So, we do not see the surprise’s reason nor cumulative effect as dovish.

LATAM Momentum:  Global Funds Raise Exposure

By Steven Holden

  • LATAM allocations hit 10-year highs in active Global equity funds.
  • Notable increases in allocations include Ninety One Global Value (up 7.5%) and Ranmore Global Equity (up 6.7%), with smaller contributions from Lazard, Delaware, and JOHCM
  • MercadoLibre is the driving force behind the moves higher, and remains the conviction holding in the region.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Keone Hon of Monad: 10 and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Keone Hon of Monad: 10,000 TPS & Full EVM Equivalence – A New Era for Ethereum Apps

Keone Hon of Monad: 10,000 TPS & Full EVM Equivalence – A New Era for Ethereum Apps

By The Delphi Podcast

  • High frequency trading (HFT) involves building systems that can react in real time to incoming packets from exchanges, making fast decisions about sending orders and quickly executing them.
  • Working on HFT systems requires a focus on performance and often involves building systems from scratch. 
  • HFT systems need to be scalable to handle trading multiple instruments and flexible enough to adapt to different market conditions. Models used in trading also need to be continuously retrained and optimized for speed without sacrificing accuracy.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Japan: Outsourcing Inc, Toei Animation, JSR Corp, Freee KK, Sanyo Trading, Goldwin Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427) – Earnings Delay Causes Consternation
  • Toei Animation (4816) – Shareholder Selldown To Meet Listing Hurdles – Bigly, Heavy, More to Come
  • JSR (4185) – Updated Information in SUNY Lawsuit, and Other Developments
  • Toei Animation Placement – Looks Ripe for a Correction
  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Keep Calm or Worry About the Earnings Delay?
  • Toei Animation (4816 JP): A US$550 Million Secondary Offering
  • Freee: New Invoicing System Helps Onboard Corporate Clients Though Losses Widen
  • Sanyo Trading (3176) – Aiming for Growth and a Strong Start to FY9/24
  • Goldwin: Sustainable Records

Outsourcing (2427) – Earnings Delay Causes Consternation

By Travis Lundy

  • Originally, the MBO for Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) was expected to get launched end-January 2024. A late-ish filing with regard to the EU’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation regime prompted a delay.
  • Yesterday Outsourcing announced a delay its earnings release by 3 business days, the delay “procedures related to impairment losses are continuing.”
  • Outsourcing shares are down hard on this. -1.5% as I write. I examine.

Toei Animation (4816) – Shareholder Selldown To Meet Listing Hurdles – Bigly, Heavy, More to Come

By Travis Lundy

  • In December 2021, when companies were required to file statements with the TSE as to plans to meet continuing listing requirements, Toei Animation (4816 JP) had a Plan.
  • That plan? Get from a then-current 15.5% Tradable Shares level to 25.0% by 31 March 2025. That was “OK” though later, the TSE asked companies to speed it up.
  • Today, shareholders Sony and Bandai Namco announced an equity offering to sell down up to 4.48mm shares in a domestic+overseas offering. It’s big, heavy, and there is more to come.

JSR (4185) – Updated Information in SUNY Lawsuit, and Other Developments

By Travis Lundy

  • 12 days ago, JSR Corp (4185 JP) announced that former research collaboration partner Research Foundation of the State University of New York had sued in an intellectual property ownership dispute.
  • I wrote about it here to the extent I could. Since then, more information has become available, or available to me.  Some details on the case. Some on lawyers. 
  • Since then JSR has reported earnings with unchanged forecast, and major pure play comp Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JP) today reported earnings; the stock popped 10+% to an all-time high.

Toei Animation Placement – Looks Ripe for a Correction

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bandai Namco (7832 JP) and Sony Pictures are looking to raise up to US$525m via selling around 10.66% of Toei Animation (4816 JP) (TA).
  • The purpose of the placement is to unwind some of the cross-shareholding, as well as help TA to maintain its listing in the Standard Segment.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Keep Calm or Worry About the Earnings Delay?

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has delayed the announcement of its 4QFY2023 results from 14 to 19 February as the impairment loss accounting is yet to be completed. 
  • Outsourcing has a history of impairments, resulting in missed forecasts, which suggests a weak 4Q. The concern is that a weak 4Q could force Bain to trim its JPY1,755 offer. 
  • Persol Holdings (2181 JP) guidance cut today suggests a weak 4Q reflects near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The weak 4Q is a valuable cover to justify the less-than-stellar offer.

Toei Animation (4816 JP): A US$550 Million Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Toei Animation (4816 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 4.5 million shares (including overallotment). Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP) and Sony Corp (6758 JP) are the sellers.
  • The offering will allow Toei Animation to maintain its listing in the TSE Standard Market and enable Bandai Namco and Sony to reduce and liquidate cross-shareholdings.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 27 February and 4 March (likely 27 February).

Freee: New Invoicing System Helps Onboard Corporate Clients Though Losses Widen

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 2QFY06/2024 results today. 2Q revenue increased 35.1% YoY, however, both revenue and operating losses fell below consensus estimates.
  • As expected, upfront investment in selling and marketing and personnel expenses prior to the new invoicing system led to an increase in operating losses.
  • However, these investments have helped the company acquire a large no. of corporate paying users and we expect losses to decline going forward.

Sanyo Trading (3176) – Aiming for Growth and a Strong Start to FY9/24

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1 FY9/24 results were at a record high for the company for a first quarter period, with the company benefitting from stronger-than-expected demand from the auto sector, together with a forex tailwind from a weak Japanese yen benefitting the Overseas Subsidiaries segment; this business saw a major uplift in profitability YoY with positive trading conditions in the Americas and Thailand for exported Japanese goods.
  • Demand also remained firm in the company’s specialist areas of expertise such as bio-related and feed-related areas, and geothermal equipment.
  • The company has maintained FY9/24 guidance, which indicates some expectations of auto demand normalizing from pronounced levels in Q1 FY9/24.

Goldwin: Sustainable Records

By Michael Causton

  • Goldwin has had a remarkable run of record sales and profits, a beneficiary of the continuing growth in the outdoor market as well as its own retail strategy. 
  • Although much of its success has come from The North Face, Goldwin is determined to become a more diversified – and global – sports business.
  • When we first recommended the stock it was around ¥5,000 and rose to a peak of ¥12,600 but is now about ¥9,000. Will it grow again? We think so.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 9th): Shin Zu Shing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 9th): Shin Zu Shing

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Feb 9th): Shin Zu Shing

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Feb 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD62.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest weekly changes in Shin Zu Shing.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief ESG: Selecta – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Selecta – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Selecta – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We view Selecta’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with the Environmental and Governance scores, while the Social pillar is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.
  • Selecta claims to be the leader in the European vending machine market. The company operates vending and coffee machines in workplaces, public areas (e.g. hospitals, universities, train stations, airports and petrol stations) and entertainment venues.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

By Joe Jasper

  • Large-Cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
  • The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
  • Friday’s PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief ECM: Toei Animation (4816) – Shareholder Selldown To Meet Listing Hurdles – Bigly and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Toei Animation (4816) – Shareholder Selldown To Meet Listing Hurdles – Bigly, Heavy, More to Come
  • Toei Animation Placement – Looks Ripe for a Correction
  • KB Financial Placement – Momentum Has Been Strong and the Last Clean-Up Sale Has Done Well
  • Toei Animation (4816 JP): A US$550 Million Secondary Offering
  • Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group (PHIP Update) – Risk of Overvaluation and Poor Profit Model
  • Octillion Energy Holdings Pre-IPO – Over-Reliance on Top Customer and Lack of Competitive Edge
  • Bharti Hexacom Pre-IPO – The Negatives – No Clear Rationale for Listing

Toei Animation (4816) – Shareholder Selldown To Meet Listing Hurdles – Bigly, Heavy, More to Come

By Travis Lundy

  • In December 2021, when companies were required to file statements with the TSE as to plans to meet continuing listing requirements, Toei Animation (4816 JP) had a Plan.
  • That plan? Get from a then-current 15.5% Tradable Shares level to 25.0% by 31 March 2025. That was “OK” though later, the TSE asked companies to speed it up.
  • Today, shareholders Sony and Bandai Namco announced an equity offering to sell down up to 4.48mm shares in a domestic+overseas offering. It’s big, heavy, and there is more to come.

Toei Animation Placement – Looks Ripe for a Correction

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bandai Namco (7832 JP) and Sony Pictures are looking to raise up to US$525m via selling around 10.66% of Toei Animation (4816 JP) (TA).
  • The purpose of the placement is to unwind some of the cross-shareholding, as well as help TA to maintain its listing in the Standard Segment.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

KB Financial Placement – Momentum Has Been Strong and the Last Clean-Up Sale Has Done Well

By Clarence Chu

  • The Carlyle Group / (CG US) via Kingsman Investment, is looking to raise US$244m from selling its entire stake in KB Financial (105560 KS).
  • Carlyle has been invested in the firm since mid-2020, where it then expressed that it would hold on to its stake for at least three and a half years. 
  • The deal would be a small one to digest at just 3.8 days of KB Financial’s three month ADV, representing 1.2% of its current mcap.

Toei Animation (4816 JP): A US$550 Million Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Toei Animation (4816 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 4.5 million shares (including overallotment). Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP) and Sony Corp (6758 JP) are the sellers.
  • The offering will allow Toei Animation to maintain its listing in the TSE Standard Market and enable Bandai Namco and Sony to reduce and liquidate cross-shareholdings.
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 27 February and 4 March (likely 27 February).

Pre-IPO Beijing Yuanxin Technology Group (PHIP Update) – Risk of Overvaluation and Poor Profit Model

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The essence of Yuanxin’s business is selling drugs.Although Yuanxin is backed by Tencent, it’s difficult to come up with more outstanding advantages to compete with Alibaba Health and JD Health.
  • We have doubts about Yuanxin’s core competitiveness and sustainable profitability, which are also far behind its peers. In our view, the market/investors may find it difficult to accept such stories.
  • Pre-IPO valuation level of Yuanxin has greatly exceeded the valuation of its drugstore business model. Yuanxin’s valuation should be lower than peers, or for example, P/S ratio of below 1x.

Octillion Energy Holdings Pre-IPO – Over-Reliance on Top Customer and Lack of Competitive Edge

By Ethan Aw

  • Octillion Energy Holdings (OE HK) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Octillion’s main revenue driver has been its EV battery systems with battery cells over the track record period, with a healthy balance sheet to support its cash burn. 
  • However, its revenue growth fell off a cliff in 1H23 due to its heavy reliance on a single customer, which doesn’t appear sustainable, in our view.

Bharti Hexacom Pre-IPO – The Negatives – No Clear Rationale for Listing

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bharti Hexacom is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the North East telecommunication circles in India.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Australia: Altium Ltd, CSL Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal
  • CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Double-Digit Sales and Profit Growth in H1FY24 Led by Immunoglobulin Franchise

Renesas (6723 JP) To Acquire Altium (ALU AU) In a A$9.1bn Deal

By Brian Freitas

  • Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) has entered a Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire Altium Ltd (ALU AU) at A$68.5/share implying an equity value of A$9.1bn and an Enterprise Value of A$8.8bn.
  • The offer price is a 33.6% premium to the last close and a larger premium to VWAPs ranging from 30 days to 180 days.
  • There will be ad hoc inclusions to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) on Altium Ltd (ALU AU)‘s last trading day (expected second half of 2024).

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Double-Digit Sales and Profit Growth in H1FY24 Led by Immunoglobulin Franchise

By Tina Banerjee

  • CSL Ltd (CSL AU) has reported strong financial performance in H1FY24, with revenue and net profit growing 11% and 20%, YoY, respectively. Growth was mainly driven by immunoglobulins franchise.
  • CSL reaffirmed FY24 guidance. Revenue growth is anticipated to be 9–11% YoY at constant currency. NPATA is anticipated to be $2.9–3.0B at constant currency, up 13–17% YoY.
  • The company is confident to deliver double-digit earnings growth over the medium term, citing strong demand for immunoglobulins and successful initiatives in plasma collections that are enhancing efficiencies.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Musings On US-Listed China Plays and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Musings On US-Listed China Plays
  • Ohayo Japan | Resilience; Sony Sunsets PS5

Musings On US-Listed China Plays

By David Blennerhassett

  • Seeing as though it is Chinese New Year week, I thought it might be appropriate to conduct a brief analysis of US-listed China plays.
  • According to a recent US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report, 265 Chinese companies were listed on the NYSE, Nasdaq and NYSE American exchanges in January 2024 worth US$848bn. 
  • That’s down from 252 companies worth US$1.03tn a year ago, a 17.5% decline. 91% of the total market capitalization of Chinese firms listed on U.S. exchanges use VIEs.

Ohayo Japan | Resilience; Sony Sunsets PS5

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks surprisingly resilient after sell-off. 10Y bond yield edges lower; Nikkei futures point to strong open
  • Sony’s outlook for profit growth in the coming year looks unappealing. Management transitions the PS5 to end-of-life care.
  • Japan’s diplomats are watching the yen – don’t they always; last intervention was at 152 to the dollar

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lippo Karawaci, MGM China Holdings

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lippo Karawaci, MGM China Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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