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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Heiwado Co Ltd, Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial, Ralph Lauren, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Hilton Worldwide Holdings , Trial Holdings, Soybean Meal, Performance Food Group Co, Tapestry Inc, NagaCorp Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Heiwado (8276 JP) – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings In Offering
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Ralph Lauren Corporation: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Business & Store Growth & Other Major Drivers
  • Governance Improvement in 2023 Was Modest but Saved by a Rise in % Woman Board Members
  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc: Growing International RevPAR Is A Big Green Flag? – Major Drivers
  • Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Margin Uptick, More Golf Courses
  • Which Commodity Trades “Big Money” currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights
  • Performance Food Group: Emergence of E-commerce & 5 Major Drivers Propelling The Company – Financial Forecasts
  • Tapestry Inc: Growing Momentum at Coach
  • Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd


Heiwado (8276 JP) – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings In Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Heiwado Co Ltd (8276 JP) today announced a Secondary Offering sell-down by cross-holders, combined with a buyback post-offering to mitigate some of the effects of overhang.
  • Banks and insurers are selling, and that will leave the stock with a lot of cross-holders left, but investors should look at the model given he zeitgeist. 
  • Companies with lots of cross-holders have to be “fair” to them. Those without copious cash have to spread it around so this transaction model looks likely to be continued.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (AJI HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are CITIC Securities, Haitong, and DFZQ.
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (Auntea) is a freshly-made beverage producer.
  • As per CIC, the firm operates the fourth largest network of freshly-made tea shops in China as of Sept 23, with an extensive reach into the lower-tier markets

Ralph Lauren Corporation: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Business & Store Growth & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ralph Lauren has yielded strong financial performance for Q3, reportedly exceeding the company’s top and bottom-line expectations, while driving significant EPS growth.
  • Such advancement comes despite a reportedly dynamic global environment, thanks to considerable focus on areas such as the brand.
  • Immersing people in Ralph Lauren’s world of elegance and sophistication, the brand is resonating globally, allowing overall pricing power in the market.

Governance Improvement in 2023 Was Modest but Saved by a Rise in % Woman Board Members

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There was modest improvements in corporate governance in 2023, without any Code revisions. About two thirds of companies showed little improvement in their corporate governance practices over the past year.
  • However, the increase in % Woman Board Members, a touchstone for measuring the improvement attitude of some companies that have shown improvement, gives us hope for the future.
  • Companies with Metrical CG scores rising below 2.5 points and those with declines have challenges with their use of cash, along with their stock repurchase and dividend policies.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc: Growing International RevPAR Is A Big Green Flag? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
  • reported its Q4 and full-year 2023 earnings, during which the company made several significant achievements.
  • For 2023, Hilton’s system-wide RevPAR grew by 12.6% compared to 2022 due to strong growth across every major region and chain scale.

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Margin Uptick, More Golf Courses

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) (TH) is now looking to raise around US$234m in its Japan IPO, after having canceled its prior listing attempt last year.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • We have looked at the past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.

Which Commodity Trades “Big Money” currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights

By The Commodity Report

  • In his presentation Thursday morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said input prices are not falling with commodity prices, squeezing margins.

  • “When commodity prices normalize and readjust, those input prices tend to be sticky, which shrinks producer margins,” Meyer says. “…It was maybe easier to make a little bit of money in ’22, ’23.

  • It’s going to be a little bit tougher in the next crop year.”


Performance Food Group: Emergence of E-commerce & 5 Major Drivers Propelling The Company – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Performance Food Group (PFG) hosted its Q2 2024 earnings call where they discussed results and future outlook, with performance metrics showing strong results for the quarter.
  • The company generated total net sales of $14.3 billion, a 2.9% increase from last year, with the result at the top end of the guidance range.
  • PFG’s sales performance was led by a 2.1% rise in total case volume growth, helped by an 8.7% surge in independent restaurant case growth.

Tapestry Inc: Growing Momentum at Coach

By Baptista Research

  • Tapestry Inc.’s Q2 FY2022 earnings were particularly solid and it achieved a 3% sales gain driven by a 12% growth at constant currency internationally, reflecting the benefits of its diversified business model.
  • The firm saw a notable 19% sales increase in Greater China, as well as increases in Japan, Europe, and other parts of Asia.
  • Impressively, the company maintained its revenue standing in North America, which was better than it had previously expected.

Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ESG: Inclusion of ‘Shareholder Value Improvement’ Mgmt Evaluation Reforms for Listed Govt Enterprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Inclusion of ‘Shareholder Value Improvement’ Mgmt Evaluation Reforms for Listed Govt Enterprises
  • Governance Improvement in 2023 Was Modest but Saved by a Rise in % Woman Board Members


Inclusion of ‘Shareholder Value Improvement’ Mgmt Evaluation Reforms for Listed Govt Enterprises

By Douglas Kim

  • It was reported today in numerous local media that there will be an inclusion of ‘shareholder value improvement’ management evaluation criteria for listed government enterprises.
  • Some of these listed government enterprises rallied strongly today (KEPCO – up 10%; KOGAS – up 12.7%; Korea District Heating – Up 30%). 
  • The detailed evaluation criteria for management evaluation of government enterprises will include the appropriateness of dividend levels, protection of minority shareholders, and compliance with best practices for ESG improvement.

Governance Improvement in 2023 Was Modest but Saved by a Rise in % Woman Board Members

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There was modest improvements in corporate governance in 2023, without any Code revisions. About two thirds of companies showed little improvement in their corporate governance practices over the past year.
  • However, the increase in % Woman Board Members, a touchstone for measuring the improvement attitude of some companies that have shown improvement, gives us hope for the future.
  • Companies with Metrical CG scores rising below 2.5 points and those with declines have challenges with their use of cash, along with their stock repurchase and dividend policies.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd


Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Wellness Meets Wall Street and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Wellness Meets Wall Street


Wellness Meets Wall Street

By subSPAC

  • This week in SPACs was packed with deals, updates, and buyouts.
  • Two new deals were announced with targets in the healthcare industry.
  • Also, a merger hits a roadblock and another gets the go-ahead from a regulator, while a cybersecurity firm gets bought for a fraction of its value a few years after its SPAC deal. 

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Daily Brief ECM: Senko Group (9069 JP) Offering – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings in Offering and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Senko Group (9069 JP) Offering – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings in Offering
  • Heiwado (8276 JP) – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings In Offering
  • Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry – Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits
  • Initial Thoughts on the Webtoon Entertainment IPO
  • Waaree Energies IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Margin Uptick, More Golf Courses


Senko Group (9069 JP) Offering – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings in Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) today announced large financial institutional cross-holders would sell shares in a Secondary Offering. There’s a buyback on the back end.
  • Cross-Holding unwinding is the subject of the moment. It will continue to be so. It will involve selldowns, and buybacks. Study the model of what companies must do what. 
  • In this case, Senko has a LOT of cross-holders and minimal excess cash. So investors buy more shares. But there is a buyback and index demand to come.

Heiwado (8276 JP) – Banks and Insurers Unwinding Cross-Holdings In Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Heiwado Co Ltd (8276 JP) today announced a Secondary Offering sell-down by cross-holders, combined with a buyback post-offering to mitigate some of the effects of overhang.
  • Banks and insurers are selling, and that will leave the stock with a lot of cross-holders left, but investors should look at the model given he zeitgeist. 
  • Companies with lots of cross-holders have to be “fair” to them. Those without copious cash have to spread it around so this transaction model looks likely to be continued.

Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry – Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits

By Ethan Aw

  • Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2024.
  • Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, and processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Initial Thoughts on the Webtoon Entertainment IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • Naver Corp (035420 KS) is trying to complete the IPO of its affiliate Webtoon Entertainment in the US stock market as early as June 2024. 
  • The expected value of Webtoon Entertainment (post IPO) is about US$3 billion to US$4 billion. Webtoon Entertainment is seeking to raise about US$500 million in this IPO. 
  • The IPO of Webtoon Entertainment in the US is likely to have a positive impact on Naver Corp (035420 KS).

Waaree Energies IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Waaree Energies Limited (0656504D IN) (WEL) has filed its DRHP. The company is the largest player in the Solar PV Modules manufacturing space in the country.  
  • The company has seen a sharp growth in sales in F23, backed by China plus one phenomemon. 
  • However, the financials do have a few talking points, such as high RPT, large inventory in transit, faster depreciating newer assets, etc.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (AJI HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are CITIC Securities, Haitong, and DFZQ.
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (Auntea) is a freshly-made beverage producer.
  • As per CIC, the firm operates the fourth largest network of freshly-made tea shops in China as of Sept 23, with an extensive reach into the lower-tier markets

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Margin Uptick, More Golf Courses

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) (TH) is now looking to raise around US$234m in its Japan IPO, after having canceled its prior listing attempt last year.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • We have looked at the past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Outsourcing (2427 JP) – Earnings Out and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427 JP) – Earnings Out, With a Bigger Impairment, But Not Clearly A MAC
  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): The Weak 4Q Unlikely to Deter Bain
  • Seven Group Reloads On Boral (BLD AU)
  • Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: One Deletion & Capping Changes
  • Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Big Price Moves Could Lead to Four Changes
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes as Big Moves Unfold
  • APM Human Services (APM AU) Rejects CVC’s NBIO
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Mar 24: 8 Days to Sell in Bizlink
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Mar 24: Bizlink TDIV DEL; Foxtron’s Futile Rally; One More Surprise
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Alchip (3661) Could Replace Feng Tay (9910)


Outsourcing (2427 JP) – Earnings Out, With a Bigger Impairment, But Not Clearly A MAC

By Travis Lundy

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) delayed its earnings from 14 February to 19 February on tardiness in calculating impairment losses. That caused a short sharp shock in share price.
  • An article came out suggesting it was a small number, and domestic biz EAS-related. Results today do not suggest EAS-related, and half is overseas. But no suggestion of precondition breach.
  • For that, I think this probably goes through, and the EC FSR review period should end on 20 Feb so a deal announcement by Friday is eminently possible.

Outsourcing (2427 JP): The Weak 4Q Unlikely to Deter Bain

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has disclosed a weak 4Q materially below guidance due to cost overruns and JPY6,875 million in impairments. The results did not provide an update on Bain’s tender.
  • The weak 4Q has raised concerns that Bain would reconsider terms. Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition. 
  • Bain is likely to consider the results a reflection of near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The annualised spread for a March-end completion is 9.8%.

Seven Group Reloads On Boral (BLD AU)

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Boral (BLD AU) rejected Seven Group (SVW AU)‘s $6.50/share Offer in 9 June 2021, Seven bumped to $7.30 cash if they got to 29.5%, and $7.40 if 34.5%.
  • Seven reached 29.5% by July 1, 34.5% less than a week later, then 52.65% on the 15 July, and at the close of the Offer (29 July 2021), held 69.6%.  
  • Seven, now holding 71.6%, has made a cash/scrip Offer for shares not owned, with certain tendering thresholds triggering more cash. Terms are best & final.

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: One Deletion & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • Bizlink Holding (3665 TT) should be deleted from the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in March and that will trigger selling of over 8 days of ADV.
  • There will be capping and funding flows due to the higher AUM and passive trackers will need to trade over 0.4x ADV in 5 stocks.
  • Shorts have covered positions in Bizlink Holding (3665 TT) but there has been a recent uptick that could be linked to positioning for the rebalance.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes as Big Moves Unfold

By Brian Freitas


APM Human Services (APM AU) Rejects CVC’s NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Employment and disability services play APM Human Services (APM AU) has rejected PE-outfit CVC Asia Pacific’s proposal, which valued APM at less than half of its November 2021 IPO price.
  • APM confirmed it had received – on Friday, 16 February – a conditional and non-binding A$1.60/share indicative proposal. That’s a 93% premium to undisturbed. Yet, APM’s IPO Price was A$3.55/share.
  • CVC – and other suitors – need to persuade executive chair and founder Megan Wynne and US private equity group Madison Dearborn, who collectively control ~65% of the company.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Mar 24: 8 Days to Sell in Bizlink

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s flow expectations for the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • Today is the base date for the March 2024 index rebalance. Based on the closing prices today, I expect one DEL for the TDIV index in March 2024.
  • Separately, I also expect the AUM assumption to be revised in March 2024.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Mar 24: Bizlink TDIV DEL; Foxtron’s Futile Rally; One More Surprise

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the T50 and T100 Indices for the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • I expect one change for the T50 index and two other changes for the T100 index.
  • The two T100 expected DELs are special because one could be a surprise deletion due to liquidity test failure and the other one is TDIV member with significant flow implications.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Alchip (3661) Could Replace Feng Tay (9910)

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp – Signs of Euphoria and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp – Signs of Euphoria


Crypto Crisp – Signs of Euphoria

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Today, we are launching our new weekly cryptocurrency note called ‘Crypto Crisp’.
  • In ‘Crypto Crisp’, every Monday, we will explore the upcoming week in crypto, reflecting on the previous week’s developments.
  • The aim of ‘Crypto Crisp’ is to efficiently and precisely bring you up to date with the crypto industry in just a few minute’s worth of reading time.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Nintendo (7974) | Delayed…Or Just Fashionably Late and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Nintendo (7974) | Delayed…Or Just Fashionably Late
  • Tencent (0700.HK): Revisiting Wechat Channels
  • AMAT. Post Earnings Surge For No Good Reason
  • REIT Watch – 10 S-Reits that top retail net inflows in the year to date
  • Singapore-listed Manufacturers Book Mixed Returns in Early 2024
  • WeBull In Discussions With Financial Authorities to Enter the Korean Retail Stock Brokerage Market
  • MicroStrategy: Is Its Bitcoin Strategy Changing The Game? – Major Drivers
  • Ralph Lauren Corporation: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Business & Store Growth & Other Major Drivers
  • Dynatrace Inc: Demand For Observability & Application Security Can Push Their Revenues In 2024? – Major Drivers
  • CyberArk Software: Is Their New Secure Cloud Access Product A Game Changer? – Major Drivers


Nintendo (7974) | Delayed…Or Just Fashionably Late

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nintendo’s share price fell ~6% on rumours of Switch 2 delay, wiping around $4 billion of the market cap
  • We do not believe that a one quarter delay will have any impact on the console’s long-term sell-through or the stock’s valuation
  • With Sony’s PS5 faltering, Nintendo is launching at an opportune time. We turn bullish on the stock with ~25% upside from here

Tencent (0700.HK): Revisiting Wechat Channels

By Eric Chen

  • One year ago, we published a note valuing Wechat Channels at US$29 billion by applying 25xPE to RMB8 billion net profit out of RMB37 billion revenue by 2024.
  • Fast forward to today, the platform’s priority has been further elevated by Tencent management in its attempt to pursue high quality growth.
  • We review our thesis on Wechat Channels based on recent channel checks and now believe that the platform could represent ~35% of Tencent’s total incremental profit from 2024 to 2026. 

AMAT. Post Earnings Surge For No Good Reason

By William Keating

  • Q124 revenues of $6.71 billion, at the high end of the guided range and essentially flat sequentially both QoQ and YoY
  • Q224 revenue $6.5 billion at the midpoint, a modest downward movement of 3% QoQ and in line with what we saw from peers KLAC and LRCX
  • Still a great company with excellent growth prospects, just not in 2024

REIT Watch – 10 S-Reits that top retail net inflows in the year to date

By Geoff Howie

  • THE iEdge S-Reit Index declined 5.6 per cent on a total return basis in the year to date, with declines also recorded in the FTSE EPRA Nareit Index series which track global Reits.
  • The 10 S-Reits which recorded largest net retail inflows in the year to date were Mapletree Logistics Trust, Keppel DC Reit, CapitaLand Ascendas Reit, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, CapitaLand China Trust, CapitaLand Ascott Trust, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts, and ParkwayLife Reit.
  • These 10 S-Reits contribute S$250 million in net retail inflows, or nearly 90 per cent of the combined net retail inflows in the year to date.

Singapore-listed Manufacturers Book Mixed Returns in Early 2024

By Geoff Howie

  • Over the first seven weeks of 2024, the 25 largest weights of the Manufacturing Index saw varied performances from a 31% decline for NIO to a 24% gain for Food Empire.
  • The largest Manufacturing Index weight is currently ST Engineering, which has consolidated on its 2023 gains over the past 7 weeks and scheduled to report its FY23 results on 29 Feb before the market open.
  • Venture has booked the most net institutional inflow over the past seven weeks within the Manufacturing Index with S$43 million of net inflow.

WeBull In Discussions With Financial Authorities to Enter the Korean Retail Stock Brokerage Market

By Douglas Kim

  • It has been reported in numerous local media outlets that WeBull is discussing with the local financial authorities to enter the Korean retail stock brokerage market.
  • If the Korean financial authorities provide a license to WeBull to directly provide stock brokerage services to the Korean retail market, this would be the first case ever.
  • If FSC grants a full license to WeBull to operate stock brokerage services to retail investors in Korea, this could result in the local brokerages losing market shares to WeBull

MicroStrategy: Is Its Bitcoin Strategy Changing The Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • MicroStrategy Inc’s fourth quarter 2023 earnings point towards a strong performance from being the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, possessing 190,000 bitcoins with a market value of $8.1 billion.
  • Over 2023, the company added another 56,650 bitcoins to its portfolio costing $1.9 billion, making the company’s bitcoin strategy a long-term focus.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Ralph Lauren Corporation: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Business & Store Growth & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ralph Lauren has yielded strong financial performance for Q3, reportedly exceeding the company’s top and bottom-line expectations, while driving significant EPS growth.
  • Such advancement comes despite a reportedly dynamic global environment, thanks to considerable focus on areas such as the brand.
  • Immersing people in Ralph Lauren’s world of elegance and sophistication, the brand is resonating globally, allowing overall pricing power in the market.

Dynatrace Inc: Demand For Observability & Application Security Can Push Their Revenues In 2024? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • According to Dynatrace’s fiscal third quarter 2024 earnings, the company delivered solid results driven by its ability to successfully navigate a continually changing market.
  • Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 21% year over year, while subscription revenue increased by 23% over the same period.
  • Non-GAAP operating income steadily increased to $105 million representing 29% of revenue and robust free cash flow margin was delivered at 25% on a trailing 12-month basis.

CyberArk Software: Is Their New Secure Cloud Access Product A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Underpinned by an urgent need for a more secure digital landscape, CyberArk Software has emerged with a wholesome performance in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2023.
  • An impressive 60% YoY growth of Subscription ARR has led CyberArk to become an exclusively recurring revenue company, with an astounding 95% of total bookings coming via subscriptions.
  • CyberArk marked the close of 2023 by bolstering its market leadership in the realm of Identity Security Platforms with a robust growth quarter.

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Daily Brief Macro: Portfolio Watch – Have markets traded the cyclical rebound in advance? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Portfolio Watch – Have markets traded the cyclical rebound in advance?
  • US CPI Inflation 3.09% y-o-y (consensus 2.9%) in Jan-24
  • Energy Cable: All the upside left in Henry Hub
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – BBNI’s Aspirations, Oceanagold IPO, and Thailand’s Recovery
  • A Sick Man by Choice!
  • UK Politics: The Right Bites
  • Switzerland CPI Inflation 1.3% y-o-y (consensus 1.7%) in Jan-24
  • Saudi CPI Inflation 1.6% y-o-y (consensus 1.6%) in Jan-24
  • Argentina CPI Inflation 20.6% m-o-m (consensus 21.0%) in Jan-24
  • Which Commodity Trades “Big Money” currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights


Portfolio Watch – Have markets traded the cyclical rebound in advance?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch, which today will be all about the (potential) upcoming rebound in the cyclical momentum.
  • As always we share our trade thoughts and ideas and provide you with our current allocation.
  • Yesterday’s PPI came in hot as we expected (0.6% MoM in core PPI vs 0.1% expected), which serves as an early sign of a reacceleration in inflationary pressures, which have been our base case since the continuation of the tensions in the Red Sea: It looks like the increase in US freight rates has started to impact producer prices.

US CPI Inflation 3.09% y-o-y (consensus 2.9%) in Jan-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The US CPI inflation rate for January 2024 exceeded expectations, slowing down to 3.09% y-o-y, marking the lowest growth since June 2023.
  • The US Core CPI inflation rate stayed at 3.9% y-o-y.
  • This rate was 0.2pp above consensus expectations, further supporting the hawkish surprise.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Energy Cable: All the upside left in Henry Hub

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Greetings from a rainy and cold Copenhagen.
  • Since we haven’t talked about natural gas for a while we will start out here before turning to crude.
  • Last week saw Henry Hub making lows last seen during the first wave of Covid in the spring of 2020.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – BBNI’s Aspirations, Oceanagold IPO, and Thailand’s Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

  • The past week saw insights on Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ), Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), OceanaGold Philippines, Sam Holdings IPO, and the most SET50 Index rebalance. 
  • There were also macro insights on Thailand with some optimism, Vietnam as it starts to recover, Malaysia with lingering concerns, and the Philippines, as the BSP keeps rates on hold.
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.

A Sick Man by Choice!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Despite its reputation as a global industrial giant, Germany’s industrial production has been on a seven-year decline.
  • Germany’s policies are the root of its industrial woes, with the energy crisis as a prime example.
  • Last year, a third of German industrial firms preferred to invest abroad rather than domestically. 

UK Politics: The Right Bites

By Alastair Newton

  • Reform UK performed strongly in the recent by-elections.
  • The upcoming Rochdale by-election on 29th February is expected to increase pressure on Rishi Sunak.
  • There is an internal push within Sunak’s party for him to either adopt more right-wing policies or resign.

Switzerland CPI Inflation 1.3% y-o-y (consensus 1.7%) in Jan-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Switzerland’s CPI inflation rate for January 2024 was 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the predicted 1.7%.
  • The CPI inflation rate for January 2024 was notably less than the consensus forecast.
  • This rate is 0.68 percentage points below the one-year average.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Saudi CPI Inflation 1.6% y-o-y (consensus 1.6%) in Jan-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Saudi CPI inflation rose to 1.6% year-on-year in January 2024, the highest growth since November 2023.
  • On a month-on-month basis, CPI inflation increased by 0.3% in January 2024.
  • This indicates a slight acceleration in price levels.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Argentina CPI Inflation 20.6% m-o-m (consensus 21.0%) in Jan-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Argentina’s CPI inflation in January 2024 increased by 20.6% month-on-month, slightly below the consensus estimate of 21.0%.
  • The current inflation rate is slower than the previous month.
  • Despite being slower, the current rate is significantly higher than the one-year average, indicating sustained inflationary pressures.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Which Commodity Trades “Big Money” currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights

By The Commodity Report

  • In his presentation Thursday morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said input prices are not falling with commodity prices, squeezing margins.

  • “When commodity prices normalize and readjust, those input prices tend to be sticky, which shrinks producer margins,” Meyer says. “…It was maybe easier to make a little bit of money in ’22, ’23.

  • It’s going to be a little bit tougher in the next crop year.”


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Daily Brief Australia: Boral Ltd, APM Human Services Internation and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven Group Reloads On Boral (BLD AU)
  • APM Human Services (APM AU) Rejects CVC’s NBIO
  • Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Carrot and Stick Offer


Seven Group Reloads On Boral (BLD AU)

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Boral (BLD AU) rejected Seven Group (SVW AU)‘s $6.50/share Offer in 9 June 2021, Seven bumped to $7.30 cash if they got to 29.5%, and $7.40 if 34.5%.
  • Seven reached 29.5% by July 1, 34.5% less than a week later, then 52.65% on the 15 July, and at the close of the Offer (29 July 2021), held 69.6%.  
  • Seven, now holding 71.6%, has made a cash/scrip Offer for shares not owned, with certain tendering thresholds triggering more cash. Terms are best & final.

APM Human Services (APM AU) Rejects CVC’s NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Employment and disability services play APM Human Services (APM AU) has rejected PE-outfit CVC Asia Pacific’s proposal, which valued APM at less than half of its November 2021 IPO price.
  • APM confirmed it had received – on Friday, 16 February – a conditional and non-binding A$1.60/share indicative proposal. That’s a 93% premium to undisturbed. Yet, APM’s IPO Price was A$3.55/share.
  • CVC – and other suitors – need to persuade executive chair and founder Megan Wynne and US private equity group Madison Dearborn, who collectively control ~65% of the company.

Boral (BLD AU): Seven Group (SVW AU)’s Carrot and Stick Offer

By Arun George

  • Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) has launched a takeover offer for Boral Ltd (BLD AU). The minimum consideration is A$6.05 (A$1.50 cash and 0.1116 SVW shares per BLD share).
  • Based on SVW reaching certain voting thresholds, the offer could be increased by an additional A$0.20 cash per share, implying a maximum consideration of A$6.25 per share.
  • While the low offer premium could deter acceptances, SVW aims to spur acceptances by warning it will delist BLD and not pay dividends for the foreseeable future. 

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