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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 26
0

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) – Trial Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) – Trial Holdings, Juniper, Xiaocaiyuan, Union Bank, Orica, Azure
  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Positives – Grand Ambitions to Open New Monetisation Channels

ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2024) – Trial Holdings, Juniper, Xiaocaiyuan, Union Bank, Orica, Azure

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, we looked at Trial Holdings (5882 JP) refiling and Xiaocaiyuan International Holding .
  • For placements, it was an action packed week in India, again, with Australia joining in as well.

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) is looking to raise >US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, Citigroup and Ambit.
  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas. 
  • As a CDMO, it produces a range of dosage forms including tablets, capsules, liquid orals, vials, ampoules, blow-filled seals, topical preparations, eye drops, dry powder injections, and gummies, among others. 

QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Positives – Grand Ambitions to Open New Monetisation Channels

By Clarence Chu

  • QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings

Morning Views Asia: Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ESR Group (1821 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • Keisei Electric Rail (9009) – A BUYBACK! But It’s Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3
  • STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected
  • Hyosung Corp (004800 KS): Spin-Off & KOSPI200 Index Implications
  • Aussie Broadband’s Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) – How Do Dow Jones Deletes Do Historically?
  • Details of Korea Value-Up Initiatives & Index, Announced This Morning
  • Merger Arb Mondays (26 Feb) – China TCM, Azure, A2B, Boral, CSR, Outsourcing, Snow Peak, Genetron
  • Alumina (AWC AU) Agrees To Alcoa’s Offer
  • T G S/P G S: Delayed by Competition Review, Spread

ESR Group (1821 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • On 21 February, Bloomberg reported that due to the steep share price declines, major ESR Group (1821 HK) shareholders are considering options for their stakes, including ESR’s privatisation.
  • The reports also noted buyer interest in ESR’s significant assets. Past share dealings suggest that Warburg Pincus and the co-founders are the likely consortium to lead a potential privatisation. 
  • The offer probability is low as a scheme would likely require a HK$16.00 offer, posing a funding challenge. Nevertheless, the upside remains as ESR trades at an undemanding valuation. 

Keisei Electric Rail (9009) – A BUYBACK! But It’s Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

By Travis Lundy

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) has long been the target of activist-ish-y holders who seek to have the company monetise its 20+% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP). 
  • Last autumn (17-Oct-2023), Keisei was the subject of a presentation by activist-ish-y fund Palliser Capital who called the stock 43% undervalued. They want Keisei to sell some OLC shares.
  • Palliser wanted Keisei to use resulting monies for growth capex+shareholder return, improve IR/governance, shrink board, adopt KPIs, etc. Thursday we got an announcement of a 2.9% stock buyback. 

STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 10 changes for the STAR100 Index in March. We correctly forecast all 10 deletes and got 8 of the 10 adds right.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% and that results in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. Nearly all constituent changes have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.
  • The adds have started to outperform the deletes and the index over the last couple of weeks and there could be more outperformance in the next two weeks.

Hyosung Corp (004800 KS): Spin-Off & KOSPI200 Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS) has announced that it is spinning off part of its business holdings to Hyosung New Holding Corporation in a 0.818:0.182 ratio.
  • The stock will remain suspended from late June to late July. We expect Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS) to maintain its index membership while the New Entity will not be added.
  • The dynamics between listed ETFs and non-listed passive trackers differ and we take a look at the potential index flows.

Aussie Broadband’s Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop

By Brian Freitas

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) – How Do Dow Jones Deletes Do Historically?

By Travis Lundy

  • On 31 January, Walmart (WMT US) announced a 3:1 stock split. For cognoscenti, that meant a Dow Jones Industrial Avg might be in the offing.
  • The last change to the index was in Aug-2020, spurred by the 4:1 split for Apple (AAPL US). This time, the likely deletion candidate was Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US). 
  • Indeed, last week, the Index Keepers announced Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) would replace Walgreens Boots Alliance on 26 Feb (i.e. WBA would be booted on the close of 23 Feb).

Details of Korea Value-Up Initiatives & Index, Announced This Morning

By Sanghyun Park

  • The rollout of the Korea Value-Up Index has encountered a minor delay. Completion of the index is slated for 3Q, with ETFs scheduled for release in 4Q.
  • The government will encourage the National Pension Service to utilize it as a benchmark.
  • Dividend payout ratio, dividend yield, PER, and cash flow will be included as screening factors for this index, in addition to the already known factors of PBR and ROE.

Merger Arb Mondays (26 Feb) – China TCM, Azure, A2B, Boral, CSR, Outsourcing, Snow Peak, Genetron

By Arun George

Alumina (AWC AU) Agrees To Alcoa’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Pittsburgh-Based Alcoa (AA US) is offering 0.02854 of its own shares for each Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) share, a 13% premium to last close. Alumina recommends the Offer to shareholders.
  • Alumina owns a 40% stake in Alcoa World Alumina & Chemicals, a JV with Alcoa that operates bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminium smelting operations. Alcoa owns the remaining 60%.
  • Separately, Alcoa announced it has entered into an agreement with Allan Gray Australia that gives it the right to acquire up to 19.9% of Alumina. CITIC also holds 18.9%.

T G S/P G S: Delayed by Competition Review, Spread

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • TGS is seizing an opportunity by acquiring a competitor at a low valuation, in an all-share deal 0.06829 TGS NO x 1 PGS NO, departing from its traditional asset-light approach.
  • The Merger is subject to ongoing review by UK and Norwegian competition authorities. I believe the deal will be cleared, but might be delayed until Q4.
  • The dividend-adjusted gross spread is 6.7%. Regulatory approval concerns seem overblown. I would set up the spread.

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Post-CNY Spread Persisting; Why UMC Discount Could Flip Positive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Post-CNY Spread Persisting; Why UMC Discount Could Flip Positive
  • Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive
  • ChipMOS: Valuation at Risk Given Latest Results; Short Interest Shows Sentiment Has Room to Shift
  • Aritzia (ATZ) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023
  • Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US): Feeling Lucky in a Challenging Market
  • MSOS – Going Higher!
  • Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Valuation Logic May Completely Change Due to New Path
  • Asia Vital Components (3017) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023
  • Airbus Se (EADSY) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023
  • Millennium Services Group Ltd – Guidance and Scheme of Arrangement on Track

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Post-CNY Spread Persisting; Why UMC Discount Could Flip Positive

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +17.3% Premium, High Double Digit Level Persisting Since CNY
  • UMC: -1.5% Discount, We Believe Spread Biased to Go Positive
  • ChipMOS: +0.6% Premium, Collapsed from +4.6%. Now Within Typical Range.

Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Trip.com reported a strong set of Q4 and FY23 earnings results last week
  • Company has held the line on SG&A expenses; look for strong H124 growth
  • We believe shares are cheap and recommend investors buy below US$43/ADS

ChipMOS: Valuation at Risk Given Latest Results; Short Interest Shows Sentiment Has Room to Shift

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ChipMOS Margin Rebound Sputters, Guidance Implies Margins Could Remain Under Pressure
  • Valuation Appears Precarious In Light of Latest Results and Guidance
  • Valuation Appears Precarious In Light of Latest Results and Guidance

Aritzia (ATZ) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Aritzia has potential for significant share price upside, with potential returns between 170% to 344% over a 3-year period
  • The author has previously exited the stock at $50 but is considering going long again due to the brand’s continued strength despite recent challenges
  • The analysis questions whether Aritzia’s targets for fiscal year 2027 are reasonable and raises concerns about the company’s potential for future growth

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US): Feeling Lucky in a Challenging Market

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) concluded FY23 with a 203.3% surge in non-GAAP net profit to Rmb3.2bn, benefiting from higher store count and monthly transacting customers.
  • Luckin plans to lift store count by at least 23%, with total to reach over 20,000 in FY24. Product innovation, promotional discount reduction, and better store efficiency are profit drivers. 
  • Net cash reached Rmb3.8bn, or 7% of market cap. With a consensus EPS forecast of 28% CAGR in the next two years, its 15.1x and 11.7x PERs are not stretched.

MSOS – Going Higher!

By Rikki Malik

  • A bombed-out sector down 80% from the peak is worth another look
  • Weaker companies have exited the industry or have already gone under 
  • The sector ETF has a good risk reward  with catalysts ahead

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833.HK) – Valuation Logic May Completely Change Due to New Path

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fang Weihao’s departure means PAGD’s strategic transformation failed. The business model of being a “vassal” of Ping An Group seems hard to bring high valuation due to “discounted” growth potential.
  • PAGD is at a crossroads. The question is which development path will the new CEO choose – Follow Fang Weihao’s strategy or return to the traditional Internet healthcare business model?
  • Both directions have painful costs that investors will not be happy with. Therefore, we recommend that investors remain sober and rational in the face of the bullish view on PAGD.

Asia Vital Components (3017) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • AI is a rapidly growing trend in the global market, with Taiwanese manufacturer AVC experiencing significant growth in their stock value.
  • AVC has shown strong financial performance in recent years, with impressive average revenue and margin metrics.
  • The company is expected to continue its growth trend in 2023, with higher margins than historical averages, as the impact of technology and COVID has been beneficial for AVC.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Airbus Se (EADSY) – Sunday, Nov 26, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Honeywell CEO optimistic about strong performance of long-cycle Aero business, particularly aero cycle
  • Predicts double-digit growth in 2024 and sustained high growth rates until 2030
  • Airbus experiencing strong orders and growing backlog, production challenges in matching supply with demand indicate tight aircraft market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Millennium Services Group Ltd – Guidance and Scheme of Arrangement on Track

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has released its H1 FY24 interim result, with both revenue (pre-disclosed) and EBITDA in line with RaaS estimates.
  • Adjusted H1 FY24 EBITDA increased ~100% on the back of 15% revenue growth, a 20bps increase in gross margin and a well-controlled cost base.
  • Management has reiterated both revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY24 which are reflected in current RaaS estimates. 

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Macro: A New Era for Japanese Equities? New Highs Without the Valuation Froth of 1989 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • A New Era for Japanese Equities? New Highs Without the Valuation Froth of 1989
  • The Path to Magnificent Exuberance
  • Did the NVIDIA Fueled Rally Exhaust the Bull?
  • Financial Considerations Amid the Fed Debate
  • Malaysia Economics: Exports Return to Growth After Year-Long Slump
  • Thailand Economics: Weak Recovery a Sombre Reflection of Structural Ills

A New Era for Japanese Equities? New Highs Without the Valuation Froth of 1989

By Said Desaque

  • The previous high in Japanese equities occurred during a bubble economy, producing  stretched and unjustifiable valuations. Current valuation metrics are not displaying excesses and look relatively cheap versus the US.
  • The BoJ is tipped to remove negative interest rates in April. Labour shortages could, however,  delay capital spending, potentially prolonging recession, but interest rates will not be rapidly ramped up. 
  • Foreigners remain upbeat about further corporate reforms enhancing shareholder value. Positive interest rates need not be bearish if better capital allocation in labour-stretched economy produces further improvements in structural profitability.  

The Path to Magnificent Exuberance

By Cam Hui

  • We believe the market cycle is in the early phases of an AI-driven boom.
  • The current AI-driven frenzy feels more like 1997–1998 than 1999 or 2000 of the dot-com era. The investment thesis is real and valid. Prices are just starting to surge.
  • While some early signs of froth are starting to appear, sentiment is inconsistent with excesses seen at major market tops.

Did the NVIDIA Fueled Rally Exhaust the Bull?

By Cam Hui

  • The NVIDIA-inspired rally last week was impressive, but poor market internals are pointing to an exhaustive move.
  • The market is in need of a sentiment reset before the next sustainable bull run.
  • While we remain long-term bullish on U.S. equities, traders should be cautious about the near-term outlook as the market can pull back at any time.

Financial Considerations Amid the Fed Debate

By Thomas Lam

  • The announcement of slowing QT, while still on tap, will be pushed back relative to my earlier expectations
  • But the unsettled timing of ceasing QT and reducing the funds rate could still sway asset prices and financial conditions generally
  • The fluid debate on the balance sheet and funds rate might also reinforce or dilute the buildup of financial risks

Malaysia Economics: Exports Return to Growth After Year-Long Slump

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Exports finally posted an expansion after close to a year of export shrinking. China remains a question mark but shipments to other markets are on the mend. 
  • In a further sign of input demand recovering, intermediate imports surged from a year ago, affirming other indicators such as PMI purchasing activity and business confidence.
  • Inflation remained at a position where the central bank will likely be satisfied with, but do not expect rate cuts just yet. 

Thailand Economics: Weak Recovery a Sombre Reflection of Structural Ills

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Thailand’s economy ended 2023 on a weak note, with the services sector barely holding up even as manufacturing continues to be buffeted by external headwinds. 
  • Given the low base from 2023, and the likely recovery in exports and tourism, growth in 2024 should improve- but the timing and strength of the rebound remains uncertain.  
  • Looking beyond 2024, growth prospects will remain uneven unless government policies move beyond short-term populism to tackle underlying challenges to labour productivity. 

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Australia: Superloop Ltd, Alumina Ltd, Millennium Services Group Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Aussie Broadband’s Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop
  • Alumina (AWC AU) Agrees To Alcoa’s Offer
  • Guidance and scheme of arrangement on track
  • Millennium Services Group Ltd – Guidance and Scheme of Arrangement on Track

Aussie Broadband’s Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Superloop

By Brian Freitas

Alumina (AWC AU) Agrees To Alcoa’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Pittsburgh-Based Alcoa (AA US) is offering 0.02854 of its own shares for each Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) share, a 13% premium to last close. Alumina recommends the Offer to shareholders.
  • Alumina owns a 40% stake in Alcoa World Alumina & Chemicals, a JV with Alcoa that operates bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminium smelting operations. Alcoa owns the remaining 60%.
  • Separately, Alcoa announced it has entered into an agreement with Allan Gray Australia that gives it the right to acquire up to 19.9% of Alumina. CITIC also holds 18.9%.

Guidance and scheme of arrangement on track

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has released its H1 FY24 interim result, with both revenue (pre-disclosed) and EBITDA in line with RaaS estimates.
  • Adjusted H1 FY24 EBITDA increased ~100% on the back of 15% revenue growth, a 20bps increase in gross margin and a well-controlled cost base.
  • Management has reiterated both revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY24 which are reflected in current RaaS estimates.

Millennium Services Group Ltd – Guidance and Scheme of Arrangement on Track

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has released its H1 FY24 interim result, with both revenue (pre-disclosed) and EBITDA in line with RaaS estimates.
  • Adjusted H1 FY24 EBITDA increased ~100% on the back of 15% revenue growth, a 20bps increase in gross margin and a well-controlled cost base.
  • Management has reiterated both revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY24 which are reflected in current RaaS estimates. 

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyosung Corporation, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyosung Corp (004800 KS): Spin-Off & KOSPI200 Index Implications
  • Details of Korea Value-Up Initiatives & Index, Announced This Morning

Hyosung Corp (004800 KS): Spin-Off & KOSPI200 Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS) has announced that it is spinning off part of its business holdings to Hyosung New Holding Corporation in a 0.818:0.182 ratio.
  • The stock will remain suspended from late June to late July. We expect Hyosung Corporation (004800 KS) to maintain its index membership while the New Entity will not be added.
  • The dynamics between listed ETFs and non-listed passive trackers differ and we take a look at the potential index flows.

Details of Korea Value-Up Initiatives & Index, Announced This Morning

By Sanghyun Park

  • The rollout of the Korea Value-Up Index has encountered a minor delay. Completion of the index is slated for 3Q, with ETFs scheduled for release in 4Q.
  • The government will encourage the National Pension Service to utilize it as a benchmark.
  • Dividend payout ratio, dividend yield, PER, and cash flow will be included as screening factors for this index, in addition to the already known factors of PBR and ROE.

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Sembcorp Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Earnings Focus Reduces Buybacks & Director Acquisition Filings

Earnings Focus Reduces Buybacks & Director Acquisition Filings

By Geoff Howie

  • Earnings Focus Reduces Buybacks & Director Acquisition Filings The Hour Glass led the buyback consideration tally, buying back 795,000 shares at an average price of S$1.55 per share over two sessions.
  • Directors or CEOs filed eight acquisitions and one disposal while substantial shareholders filed three acquisitions and two disposals.

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief United States: Walgreens Boots Alliance, AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF, SDCL EDGE Acquisition Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) – How Do Dow Jones Deletes Do Historically?
  • MSOS – Going Higher!
  • Crafty Copper Collaboration

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) – How Do Dow Jones Deletes Do Historically?

By Travis Lundy

  • On 31 January, Walmart (WMT US) announced a 3:1 stock split. For cognoscenti, that meant a Dow Jones Industrial Avg might be in the offing.
  • The last change to the index was in Aug-2020, spurred by the 4:1 split for Apple (AAPL US). This time, the likely deletion candidate was Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US). 
  • Indeed, last week, the Index Keepers announced Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) would replace Walgreens Boots Alliance on 26 Feb (i.e. WBA would be booted on the close of 23 Feb).

MSOS – Going Higher!

By Rikki Malik

  • A bombed-out sector down 80% from the peak is worth another look
  • Weaker companies have exited the industry or have already gone under 
  • The sector ETF has a good risk reward  with catalysts ahead

Crafty Copper Collaboration

By subSPAC

  • SPAC dealmaking surged in the last week with several new deals being announced, including an Italian copper company, a consumer electronics firm, and an oncology-focused business.
  • Also, a space exploration company saw its shares skyrocket after successfully landing its spacecraft on the moon, and a struggling truck maker sells part of its assets.
  • Read on to find out the latest about all things SPACs. 

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Feb 26
0

Daily Brief India: Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) is looking to raise >US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, Citigroup and Ambit.
  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas. 
  • As a CDMO, it produces a range of dosage forms including tablets, capsules, liquid orals, vials, ampoules, blow-filled seals, topical preparations, eye drops, dry powder injections, and gummies, among others. 

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