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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: The Week Ahead – US Core PCE and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Week Ahead – US Core PCE, Euro Area Flash Inflation and Japan CPI
  • Steno Signals #88: Anyone left willing to bet on rate cuts in H1?
  • FSC Announces Corporate Value Up Reforms Details
  • China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bangkok Dusit, Grab Results, and Indonesia’s Election
  • Energy Cable #58: MASSIVE bottlenecks and abundances in shipping and energy space
  • MacroVoices #416 Mike Green: Inflation is Dead? Can You Buy Commodities Anyway?
  • How the Rise of ‘Pod Shops’ Is Reshaping the Way Markets Trade
  • Surging Soft Commodities
  • Macro Nugget: MAJOR tradeable gap opening between Germany and the US


The Week Ahead – US Core PCE, Euro Area Flash Inflation and Japan CPI

By Nomura – The Week Ahead

  • Global equities finished the week on a high note, with Nvidia’s strong earnings boosting markets, especially in Japan.
  • European yields rose due to strong PMIs, while the dollar weakened and the euro and pound strengthened.
  • In the US, core PCE inflation is expected to be strong, with potential temporary factors contributing to the high readings.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Steno Signals #88: Anyone left willing to bet on rate cuts in H1?

By Andreas Steno

  • It seems like no one is willing to add bets on rate cuts in H1 after even the doves from the ECB and the Fed have been hard to convince of spring action lately.
  • G3 central bankers have been on parade with messages around the risks of easing prematurely after watching the cocktail of 1) higher freight rates, 2) sticky wages and 3) easing financial conditions, especially in the US.
  • We have seen front-end back paddling in rates space ever since New Years accordingly and the almost bizarre uniformity in views and positioning has been blown into pieces in a matter of weeks.

FSC Announces Corporate Value Up Reforms Details

By Douglas Kim

  • On 26 February, South Korea announced its long awaited Corporate Value Up reform plan details to improve shareholder returns of listed Korean companies. 
  • Due to the lofty expectations about these corporate reforms, there was some disappointment when the details actually came out. KOSPI declined by 0.8% today following these corporate reform details. 
  • Many investors are likely to take a “wait and see” attitude to see if real, material, positive changes will be announced in 2Q/3Q, before committing additional capital into Korean equities.

China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump

By Caixin Global

  • China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses, grappling with a prolonged stock market rout. Bond funds, on the other hand, had a comparatively stellar year.

  • The uptick in bond fund flows fueled a shift in China’s asset management landscape, with mutual funds emerging as the most preferred asset management avenue, outstripping banking wealth management for the first time.

  • This shift reflects investors’ concerted efforts to navigate prevailing financial market volatility and mitigate risk in the country’s stock market, which has seen a protracted rout continue into this year.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bangkok Dusit, Grab Results, and Indonesia’s Election

By Angus Mackintosh


Energy Cable #58: MASSIVE bottlenecks and abundances in shipping and energy space

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Price benchmarks of Nat Gas among major producers have fallen off a cliff relative to price benchmarks of major net consumers/importers as the halt to global shipping has led to regional bottlenecks and abundances.
  • We remain long US Nat Gas as a minor improvement in shipping paired with bottlenecks in 1-2 months from now makes for a potential extremely bullish cocktail if it squeezes out the current aggressive short-selling by CTAs. 
  • We expect a spill-over from shipping to the pricing of goods

MacroVoices #416 Mike Green: Inflation is Dead? Can You Buy Commodities Anyway?

By Macro Voices

  • Updates on the Macro scoreboard, including the S&P 500 futures and the US dollar index
  • Key news to watch next week, such as consumer confidence numbers and GDP
  • Interview with Mike Green from Simplify Asset Management discussing inflation and monetary policy, potential risks and market expectations

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


How the Rise of ‘Pod Shops’ Is Reshaping the Way Markets Trade

By Odd Lots

  • Recent market volatility with large moves in individual stocks
  • Multistrategy hedge funds may be impacting these market movements
  • Goose Hollow Capital founder Krishna Kumar discusses the workings of pod shops and their impact on stock trading

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Surging Soft Commodities

By The Commodity Report

  • As per the International Cocoa Organization, there was a deficit of 216kt in the global market during 2021/22 and 99kt in 2022/23.

  • With a significant decline in West African output in the ongoing 2023/24 season, it is anticipated that the market will experience a substantial third deficit, nearing 400kt.

  • This would result in stocks reaching their lowest levels in at least a decade.


Macro Nugget: MAJOR tradeable gap opening between Germany and the US

By Andreas Steno

  • We have been banging the drum on a potential sharp gap opening between inflation trends in the US and in Germany (or the Euro zone).
  • The market has slowly but surely started to acknowledge the trend, but we continue to see traded inflation spreads as vastly mispriced given the forward looking indicators on inflation.
  • The IFO survey details from Germany made for very benign inflation reading as price expectations decline in manufacturing, autos and metal and not least SERVICES.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Finally and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Finally, Uniswap


Crypto Crisp: Finally, Uniswap

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Ethereum has surged past the 3,000 ETH/USD mark, now trading at 3,050 ETH/USD.
  • This increase is mainly driven by the intensifying anticipation over the potential launch of an Ethereum spot ETF, along with Ethereum’s recent breakout from a months-long period of underperformance compared to Bitcoin.
  • Over the last week, Ethereum has seen an 8% increase relative to Bitcoin, with the latter seeing less net inflow into exchange-traded products than the week prior.

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Daily Brief Australia: Alumina Ltd, CSR Ltd, Superloop Ltd, S&P/ASX 200, Kinatico , Adbri, Rent.com.au Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alcoa (AA US) Makes an Offer for Alumina (AWC AU)
  • CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00
  • Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s All-Scrip Non-Binding Proposal Seems Opportunistic
  • ABB Targets Superloop After Taking Out Symbio
  • CSR (CSR AU): Saint Gobain Firms $9/Share Bid
  • EQD | S&P/ASX200 Stalled, SHORT Opportunity
  • Kinatico Ltd – H1 Result In-Line, SaaS Now 30%+ of Revenue
  • Adbri (ABC AU): CRH/Barro’s Firm Offer
  • H1 result in-line, SaaS now 30%+ of revenue
  • Rent.com.au Ltd – Core Portal Proving Resilient, RentPay Building Scale


Alcoa (AA US) Makes an Offer for Alumina (AWC AU)

By Brian Freitas

  • Alcoa (AA US) has made a non-binding, indicative and conditional proposal to acquire all shares in Alumina (AWC AU). Shareholders will receive 0.02854 shares of Alcoa for each Alumina share. 
  • Alcoa (AA US) has entered into an agreement with Allan Gray Australia that gives them the right to acquire 19.9% of Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) at the same swap ratio.
  • Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) is a potential delete from the ASX100 Index at the March rebalance and that could provide an entry into the stock.

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Binding Proposal at A$9.00

By Arun George

  • CSR Ltd (CSR AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) at A$9.00 per share, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price (20 February).
  • The offer has a ticking fee of A$0.02 per month (accrued daily) if the scheme’s effective date is delayed beyond 26 June. The offer requires FIRB approval. 
  • The offer is attractive and represents a 15-year high. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/28.8%.

Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s All-Scrip Non-Binding Proposal Seems Opportunistic

By Arun George

  • Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)‘s non-binding proposal from Alcoa (AA US) is 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share, implying a value of A$1.15, a 13.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Alcoa has been granted a 20-business day exclusivity period. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal. Allan Gray, the largest shareholder, is supportive. 
  • While strategically sensible, the offer is not a knockout bid. The headcount test is a risk as retail forums suggest a majority view forming against the offer. 

ABB Targets Superloop After Taking Out Symbio

By David Blennerhassett

  • The hunter becomes the hunted. After Superloop (SLC AU) failed to clinch Symbio Holdings (SYM AU) last year, Aussie Broadband (ABB AU) has now made an Offer for Superloop.
  • ABB’s indicative Offer provides Superloop shareholders with 0.21 new ABB shares for each Superloop share held, or an indicative Offer price of A$0.95/share, a 33.2% premium to the three-month VWAP.
  • ABB has picked up 19.9% in Superloop, also at A$0.95/share. Superloop has yet to respond.  

CSR (CSR AU): Saint Gobain Firms $9/Share Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 21st Feb, Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) made an indicative Offer to CSR Ltd (CSR AU) shareholders of A$9/share by way of a Scheme, a 34% premium to last close. 
  • Saint-Gobain and CSR have now entered into a definitive agreement, also at $9/share. The business combination has been unanimously approved by the boards of both companies. 
  • Conditions include CSR’s shareholder approval and FIRB signing off. No specific mention of ACCC. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of this year.

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Stalled, SHORT Opportunity

By Nico Rosti

  • The ASX 200 INDEX closed last week down, and this week is barely up, it has been flat for 3 weeks and its direction is unclear.
  • The index may be preparing for a pullback, even though our models at the moment are not flashing yet the “go SHORT” signal. Covering LONG holdings may be wise.
  • Wait for prices > 7670 or the end of this week, if the index closes the week up, to increase the probability of success for a SHORT Trade.

Kinatico Ltd – H1 Result In-Line, SaaS Now 30%+ of Revenue

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • KYP has reported H1 FY24 NPAT of $0.357m, a $1.13m turnaround on the previous corresponding period (pcp), and the company’s best-ever result.
  • The gross margin and EBITDA margin hit record levels of 67.7% and 13.4% respectively. The result was above our gross margin forecast but in line with our EBITDA estimate. 

Adbri (ABC AU): CRH/Barro’s Firm Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 18 December 2023, construction play Adbri (ABC AU) entered into a process and exclusivity deed with CRH (CRH US) and 42.7%-shareholder Raymond Barro (Chairman).
  • Adbri has now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with CRH under which CRH will acquire all of the shares in Adbri that the Barro Group does not currently own.
  • Conditions include Adbri’s shareholder approval and FIRB signing off. The transaction is expected to close in June of this year.

H1 result in-line, SaaS now 30%+ of revenue

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • KYP has reported H1 FY24 NPAT of $0.357m, a $1.13m turnaround on the previous corresponding period (pcp), and the company’s best-ever result.
  • The gross margin and EBITDA margin hit record levels of 67.7% and 13.4% respectively.

Rent.com.au Ltd – Core Portal Proving Resilient, RentPay Building Scale

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Rent.com.au Limited (ASX:RNT) is a purpose-led company seeking to empower home renters through its technology platform and a growing number of aligned transactional services.
  • The company has reported an 11% increase in H1 FY24 revenue to $1.6m with its transactional platform, RentPay delivering a 137% increase in revenue to $0.22m, driven by a 122% increase in customers and ARPU growth of 18%.
  • The search portal reported a positive EBITDA of $0.092m for the half, its best result in two years and up 42% on the previous corresponding period (pcp), while RentPay posted a loss of $1.029m, flat on the pcp, and a 26% improvement on H2 FY23. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: APR, Hyundai Electric & Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Trading Strategy of APR on the First Day of IPO
  • KOSPI Size Indices – Potential Migrations as Focus Is on Price to Book


Trading Strategy of APR on the First Day of IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for APR (278470 KS) which starts trading on 27 February. APR is the most anticipated IPO in Korea so far in 2024.
  • Our base case (6 months – 1 year) target price of APR is 370,809 won, which is 48% higher than the IPO price. 
  • We recommend investors to take some profits off the table (30%-50%) if the share price shoots higher by 100% to 200%+ from the IPO price on the first day. 

KOSPI Size Indices – Potential Migrations as Focus Is on Price to Book

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 December and will end 29 February. The changes will be implemented at the close 14 March.
  • We see 3 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 4 new adds to LargeCap, 7 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, and 11 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
  • On average, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have the lowest price to book value and have historically outperformed stocks migrating between other categories.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Record High Performance in 2023; Middle-East Performance Recovers


Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Record High Performance in 2023; Middle-East Performance Recovers

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 2023, Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported 23% YoY revenue growth to THB25.6B, driven by 32%, 17%, and 11% YoY growth in international, expat, and Thai patients, respectively.
  • Driven by high margin international patients, increasing inpatient revenue, and continued cost management, gross profit, EBITDA, and net profit margin expanded in 2023.
  • Unrest in Middle-East remained an overhang on BH’s shares. However, revenue from Middle-East patients increased at 23.3% in H2 2023 compared to H1 2023.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Grab Holdings , Parkway Life REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Surging Ahead of Expectations
  • REIT Watch – Healthcare S-Reits outperform in February


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Surging Ahead of Expectations

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings reported nothing short of an impressive set of results for 4Q2023, booking another positive adjusted EBITDA but also an actual net profit and positive adjusted cash flow. 
  • The company saw its mobility GMV come in above pre-COVID levels and deliveries GMV growth reaccelerated, while also reaching positive adjusted EBITDA for a second quarter.
  • Grab aims to deepen its engagement with users through affordable and premium offerings and a laddered pricing approach, with additional focus on financial services and advertising to come in 2024.

REIT Watch – Healthcare S-Reits outperform in February

By Geoff Howie

  • REIT Watch – Healthcare S-Reits outperform in February The resilience of the segment can be seen from the price performance of Singapore’s two listed healthcare S-Reits as well – First Reit and ParkwayLife Reit (PLife Reit).
  • PLife Reit announced a DPU of 14.77 Singapore cents for the full year 2023, a 2.7 per cent increase year on year.

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Daily Brief United States: Booking Holdings, US Foods Holding Corp, Alight , Cocoa Futures, Crocs Inc, Dropbox Inc, Enhabit , Ethereum, Kraft Heinz Co, Roku and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Booking.com (BKNG US): Buying Back Shares Until There Is None Left
  • US Foods: Initiation of Coverage – Major Drivers
  • Alight Inc (ALIT) – Monday, Nov 27, 2023
  • Surging Soft Commodities
  • Crocs Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Revolutionizing Footwear with Personalization! – Major Drivers
  • Dropbox Inc.: The Story Of Its Evolution Into A Comprehensive Content Collaboration Platform! – Major Drivers
  • Enhabit Inc (EHAB) – Monday, Nov 27, 2023
  • Crypto Crisp: Finally, Uniswap
  • The Kraft Heinz Company: Is Its Expansion In Foodservice & Emerging Markets The Biggest Catalyst For Medium-Term Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Roku Inc.: A Diversified Monetization Strategy Can Save The Day? – Major Drivers


Booking.com (BKNG US): Buying Back Shares Until There Is None Left

By Mohshin Aziz

  • 4Q23 results beat expectations with record revenues and profits and announced a maiden cash dividend of USD8.75/share (0.35% yield)
  • But, share price plunged by 10% on soft guidance of 4-6% YoY growth in room-night booked in 1Q24, due to the impact of high-interest rates and the ongoing wars 
  • Good opportunity to buy on dips, stock trading at ~20x FY24 PE, ~18% discount to LT mean. Plus, there is a balance USD7.5b (6.1% shares in issue) of share buybacks  

US Foods: Initiation of Coverage – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on food product manufacturer, US Foods.
  • The company reported solid performance in the fourth quarter and full year 2023, demonstrating strong execution of its strategy and operational discipline.
  • For the entire fiscal year of 2023, the company achieved record adjusted EBITDA of $1.56 billion driven by strong case growth, independent case growth of almost 7% and increased market share with targeted customer types.

Alight Inc (ALIT) – Monday, Nov 27, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Alight has experienced strong organic revenue growth through recurring revenue contracts and acquisitions
  • Concerns have been raised about stagnant gross margins, adjusted EBITDA margins, management turnover, and stakeholder selling
  • Accounting validation issues further complicate the company’s financial standing and could potentially impact the stock price negatively

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Surging Soft Commodities

By The Commodity Report

  • As per the International Cocoa Organization, there was a deficit of 216kt in the global market during 2021/22 and 99kt in 2022/23.

  • With a significant decline in West African output in the ongoing 2023/24 season, it is anticipated that the market will experience a substantial third deficit, nearing 400kt.

  • This would result in stocks reaching their lowest levels in at least a decade.


Crocs Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Revolutionizing Footwear with Personalization! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Crocs Inc., a company that is well known for its distinctive footwear products.
  • The company had a robust year in 2023, setting records and establishing a position of strength as it entered 2024.
  • For the full year of 2023, the company reported a 12% YoY increase in total revenues, reaching nearly $4 billion, primarily driven by 19% direct-to-consumer growth at the enterprise level.

Dropbox Inc.: The Story Of Its Evolution Into A Comprehensive Content Collaboration Platform! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Dropbox is a company that has seen considerable growth in its fourth quarter of 2023, with total revenue increasing by 6% year-on-year to $635 million, surpassing its guidance range.
  • However, it also witnessed some challenges during this period, which were anticipated due to broader economic impacts that affected both their teams and document workflow businesses.
  • For instance, Dropbox noted a decrease in gross new licenses and upsell activity as well as heightened churn rates.

Enhabit Inc (EHAB) – Monday, Nov 27, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Enhabit Inc., the Home Health & Hospice unit spun off from Encompass Health, is undergoing a strategic review that could result in a potential sale of the company.
  • Analysts estimate that if the company is sold, it could fetch a price 50-100% higher than its current value, with a potential equity value of $1.0bn or $20 per share.
  • The opportunity for a sale exists due to the company’s undervaluation compared to its parent company, Encompass Health, as well as negative surprises in CMS rates and missed guidance, leading to activist pressure and a strategic review.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Crypto Crisp: Finally, Uniswap

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Ethereum has surged past the 3,000 ETH/USD mark, now trading at 3,050 ETH/USD.
  • This increase is mainly driven by the intensifying anticipation over the potential launch of an Ethereum spot ETF, along with Ethereum’s recent breakout from a months-long period of underperformance compared to Bitcoin.
  • Over the last week, Ethereum has seen an 8% increase relative to Bitcoin, with the latter seeing less net inflow into exchange-traded products than the week prior.

The Kraft Heinz Company: Is Its Expansion In Foodservice & Emerging Markets The Biggest Catalyst For Medium-Term Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Kraft Heinz Company delivered a decent Q4 and its management expressed optimism about the company’s prospects in 2024.
  • Assuring his belief in Kraft Heinz delivering solid results, he affirmed expectations for driving top-line growth, returning to positive volumes, expanding gross margins and operating margins, and making strategic investments in their business.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Roku Inc.: A Diversified Monetization Strategy Can Save The Day? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Roku, the leading streaming entertainment provider, delivered a strong fourth quarter and year-ended 2023 earnings as announced during the company’s earnings conference call.
  • Roku’s CEO, Anthony Wood, and CFO, Dan Jedda, along with other executive members, shared insights into the company’s financials and business trajectory.
  • On a positive note, Roku achieved adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow a year ahead of schedule, demonstrating the company’s focus on operational improvements and platform revenue growth.

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Daily Brief India: Indiabulls Housing Finance and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Big Returns on Small Investment – A Unique Special Situation in Indiabulls Housing


Big Returns on Small Investment – A Unique Special Situation in Indiabulls Housing

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Indiabulls Housing’s Right Issue offers a unique opportunity to earn higher returns on smaller investment. 
  • Indiabulls Housing is at the cusp of a turnaround: detaching its old identity maligned by various governance issues 
  • Turnaround + Special Situation Bet – A potential opportunity to make outsized returns owing to the lower initial investment requirement in a company undergoing significant turnaround

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Daily Brief Japan: Tsuruha Holdings, Rakuten Bank , Toei Animation, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Appier Group, Rakuten Group , Carta Holdings, Inc., TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Morito Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) – Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger?
  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Introduces a Yutai Program to Goose the Mar24 Price, Mar25 EPS
  • Toei Animation (4816 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Aeon, Welcia and Tsuruha: Creating an FMCG Behemoth
  • StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback
  • Appier (4180) | A Volatile Stock Despite Solid SaaS Metrics
  • Morning Views Asia: Rakuten Group
  • Full Report – Carta Holdings (3688 JP)
  • Companies with High Stock Valuations and High Profitability Will Increasingly Attract Investment
  • Initiation – Morito (9837 JP)


Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) – Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger?

By Travis Lundy

  • Over the weekend there was an article in the Nikkei saying that Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) were considering a merger. Other media outlets followed.
  • This has been a possible outcome. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) owns 51% of Welcia, 13.6% in Tsuruha, and is negotiating to buy another 13% in Tsuruha from Oasis.
  • This would create a behemoth. ¥2.2trln in revenues vs ¥1trln for MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP). It would be 25% of the market. Questions will be asked about concentration. 

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Introduces a Yutai Program to Goose the Mar24 Price, Mar25 EPS

By Travis Lundy

  • The Rakuten Bank offering in early December was a great time to buy the dip of you sold end-September. It should have been a good time to buy outright.
  • Unfortunately, the stock priced at ¥2,470, then closed that day at ¥2,500. That was the high for the next ten weeks. Two weeks later it was 20% lower. Ouch.
  • But it climbed out of the abyss, gained 35% in 8wks, then Thursday the Bank announced a new Shareholder Benefit program. Today the stock was +7%. Worth looking at details.

Toei Animation (4816 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$550 million secondary placement announcement, Toei Animation (4816 JP)’s shares are down 7.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY18,560 per share (14 February).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Toei Animation’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 27 February. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Aeon, Welcia and Tsuruha: Creating an FMCG Behemoth

By Michael Causton

  • The possible merger between Welcia and Tsuruha under Aeon has been talked about for years despite concerns from both drugstores, but may now happen.
  • But calling these retailers drugstores is increasingly a misnomer: FMCG-drugstores is better because they and many others in the sector, increasingly compete with FMCG retailers like supermarkets and even CVS.
  • This evolution is rapid so the merits of a deal make more sense when we view it from a sector five years in the future than how it is today.

StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric (9009 JP) has been an outperformer since activist fund Palliser Capital called on the company sell some Oriental Land (4661 JP) shares. It has now announced another buyback.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Appier (4180) | A Volatile Stock Despite Solid SaaS Metrics

By Mark Chadwick

  • Post FY23 results in mid-February, Appier’s stock exhibited significant volatility, despite robust financial performance.
  • We believe that Appier is a beneficiary of continued growth in ecommerce and increasing ubiquity of AI solutions for marketing.  
  • Appier trades at a significant discount to global peers and domestic SaaS companies, suggesting significant upside

Morning Views Asia: Rakuten Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Full Report – Carta Holdings (3688 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • CARTA HD strives to become “The Evolution Factory” and operates mainly in the digital marketing field.
  • The company was established in January 2019 through the merger of the former VOYAGE Group, which had expanded earnings by creating a series of new businesses centered on the ad tech domain, and the former Cyber Communications, the largest media rep firm in Japan.
  • CARTA HD holds a 3.9% share in the Japanese online advertising market.

Companies with High Stock Valuations and High Profitability Will Increasingly Attract Investment

By Aki Matsumoto

  • P/B’s slightly higher valuations in October 2023 while ROE, EPS, and BPS did not change much were due to external factors, not internal factors.
  • Clearly, improvements in ROE and ROA are effective in improving stock valuations, but valuations have further increased for companies with higher valuations and profitability for the past year.
  • Some of these companies have begun to use cash more effectively for investment and shareholder returns. The gap in market capitalization between these companies and the rest will increasingly widen.

Initiation – Morito (9837 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • With an apparel business, product business, and transportation business, MORITO CO.‚ LTD., (Morito) conducts planning, development, and sales of products that reflect market needs and customer demands.
  • The products it sells are either produced in house or purchased from suppliers.
  • Handling an extremely diverse range of products that total more than 500 thousand, the company sells those products in niche markets.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Li Auto , Hope Education Group Co Ltd, Sitoy Group Holdings, 160 Health International, Mixue Group, QuantumPharm and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK):  Value Proposition Looks Clean
  • Li Auto (LI US): 4Q23, High Growth and Profit, A Winner of Market Concentration, Upgraded to Hold
  • China Consumption Weekly (26 Feb 2024): Alibaba, Xpeng, HiPhi, Tuhu Car, Luckin
  • Chinese Education Giant Urged to Repay Bondholders Early as Default Fears Mount
  • Sitoy (1023 HK) Disappointing H1 FY24, 6x PE, 67% of Mkt Cap in Cash,~9% Div Yield: Good Trade
  • Pre-IPO 160 Health – The Lack of Moat Has Led to Development Falling Far Short of Expectations
  • MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison
  • QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Requires Deep Pockets to Fund Its Cash Burn


Alibaba (9988 HK):  Value Proposition Looks Clean

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • It is well-known that Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is cheap (9x FY24 PE, fiscal year ending March; 8x FY23 free cash flow; net cash 25% of market cap).
  • Taking into account all of the major moving parts, I believe Alibaba can now be categorized as a good value stock. 
  • Shareholder returns through buyback and dividend, minus stock-based compensation in 2023 calendar year equal to around 5% yield.

Li Auto (LI US): 4Q23, High Growth and Profit, A Winner of Market Concentration, Upgraded to Hold

By Ming Lu

  • In 4Q23, revenue grew by 136% and operating profit was significantly higher than the market consensus.
  • Li Auto grew the most rapidly among the top-ten Chinese NEV sellers.
  • We believe Li Auto will be one of the winners after the market gets more concentrated. Upgrade to Hold.

China Consumption Weekly (26 Feb 2024): Alibaba, Xpeng, HiPhi, Tuhu Car, Luckin

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba plans to provide operational services to third-party sales broadcasters.
  • Xpeng will hire 4,000 employees and raise research budget by 40%.
  • Tuhu Car expected that its net profit will turn positive in 2023.

Chinese Education Giant Urged to Repay Bondholders Early as Default Fears Mount

By Caixin Global

  • Some global investors are urging Chinese private education giant XJ International Holdings Co. Ltd. to redeem half of its $350 million in bonds before maturity, as the creditors fear the Hong Kong-listed firm may intentionally default on repayments.
  • The bonds are due in 2026, but the creditors asked for the early redemption to be completed by March 2 in a letter sent to the Chinese company last month by their legal adviser, Chicago-headquartered global law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP.
  • The creditors are a group of large international investors who collectively hold no less than $154 million, or about 50%, of the bonds’ outstanding principal amount, according to the letter seen by Caixin.

Sitoy (1023 HK) Disappointing H1 FY24, 6x PE, 67% of Mkt Cap in Cash,~9% Div Yield: Good Trade

By Sameer Taneja

  • In the search for good value stocks to invest in for the long run, a good long-term ROIC is essential. It ascertains the moat or execution quality of the company. 
  • Unfortunately, with a 5 Yr/10 Yr average ROIC of 4%/8%, the company did not satisfy all our criteria, yet the value seems appealing (66% of market cap cash, 8.8% yield).
  • The persistent structural challenges in H1 FY24 in the industry (resulting in the subpar ROIC) convince us that the stock is only a good trade, but long-term a value trap.

Pre-IPO 160 Health – The Lack of Moat Has Led to Development Falling Far Short of Expectations

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • 160 Health collaborates with medical institutions and then get access to high-caliber medical professionals, which helps to attract patients/other business parties. So, its business model is B2B2C, similar to ClouDr.
  • However, ClouDr has much better performance than 160 Health, because ClouDr has established moat/barriers to more effectively monetize medical resources, while 160 Health is clearly lagging behind in this regard.
  • 160 Health’s revenue mainly comes from sales of pharmaceutical and healthcare products, whose gross margin is very low. As the competition intensifies, the C-end customer acquisition cost would also increase.  

MIXUE/ChaPanda/Good Me Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO, while Sichuan Baicha (ChaPanda) and Guming Holdings (Good me) are said to be looking to raise US$300m each.
  • All three are primarily focussed on providing freshly-made drinks, including freshly-made fruit drinks, and tea, with some selling ice cream, coffee, baked goods and ready to drink beverages as well.
  • In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison, including the Hong Kong listed peer, Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK).

QuantumPharm (Xtalpi) Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Requires Deep Pockets to Fund Its Cash Burn

By Clarence Chu

  • QuantumPharm (QUP HK) (Xtalpi) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

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