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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Outsourcing Inc, Ecopro BM , Cathay Pacific Airways, MTAR Technologies, Comfortdelgro Corp, Air China Ltd (H), Illinois Tool Works and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB
  • Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure
  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer
  • Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI
  • Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages
  • MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis
  • Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists
  • Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?
  • Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified


Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB

By Travis Lundy

  • After an extension due to a European Foreign Subsidies Review filing, and a small ‘accident’ regarding the earnings release, we have a deal. 
  • The earnings release itself seemed more innocuous than articles and rumour suggested show the causes of impairments and so it seemed like there was little cause to walk/declare MAC.
  • Now it will be done in 20 days. I still think this is cheeky, opportunistic, and low, and it is up to the float to decide what to do.

Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure

By Sanghyun Park

  • The schedule includes submitting the transfer listing application post-EGM on March 26th. KRX approval expected in 4-6 weeks due to Ecopro BM’s financial soundness. KOSPI listing follows in 2-3 weeks.
  • As for KOSDAQ 150 ad-hoc change, it will be replaced with the top reserved issue. The anticipated timing for this ad-hoc change is around mid or late May.
  • Following Feb 7 disclosure, stock surged over 10% in 2 days. Precedents show rallies pre-shareholder meetings, but KOSPI listing brings corrections. Today’s resolution could boost Ecopro BM short term.

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) announced that the pre-condition was satisfied, and Bain’s tender offer remains unchanged at JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December).
  • Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief as the weak 4Q and significant impairments have raised concerns that Bain would cut its offer or walk away.
  • The offer attractiveness has increased partly due to lower consensus. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%/22.8%.

Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer

By Brian Freitas

  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS)‘s Board has approved the delisting of the stock from the KOSDAQ market and to list on the KOSPI market. The shareholder meeting is on 26 March. 
  • Historically, the KRX has taken an average of 64 days from application to approve the listing to transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market.
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS) will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index on its last trading day and inclusion in the KOSPI 200 Index could take place in September.

Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 February, Ecopro BM (247540 KS) announced that it will switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
  • Ecopro BM currently has a market cap of 23.1 trillion won. It is the largest stock in KOSDAQ right now and it would be the 17th largest stock in KOSPI.
  • Lofty valuation is one of the main reasons why we continue to be bearish on Ecopro BM. It is trading at P/E of 203x in 2024 and 71x in 2025.

Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages

By Neil Glynn

  • We publish a deep dive on historical margin management at Cathay Pacific following Bloomberg reports that Air China is considering raising its 29.99% stake.
  • We see Cathay’s consistent underperformance of the global industry as due to structural disadvantages competing against lower cost competitors without the benefit of attractive joint ventures or M&A.
  • Our deep dive comparing margin generation to ten major global peers highlights weak pricing power without sufficient offset from staff cost/other cost efficiencies as the key problem.

MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH IN)  is a precision engineered company that caters to customers in clean energy, Space, Defense sectors, etc. 
  • The company has done well over the last few years in terms of securing business, however there are concerns on the margins end, working capital and cash generation. 
  • There also exists a high business risk in terms of customer concentration since more than 75% of the revenues (F23) come from one single entity.

Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists

By Henry Soediarko

  • Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) share price has underperformed its tourism related transport operator peers.
  • Key drivers are still strong, including the expected influx of Chinese tourists from visa-free travel arrangements.
  • Valuation is still compelling, and it is not too late to own it.

Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Speculations on Air China Ltd (753 HK) seeking control of Cathay Pacific (293 HK) reappeared recently. We think a change in CX’s ownership is just a matter of time.
  • CX has been a more important profit contributor to Air China after the pandemic, and depends on pricing, Air China is expected to benefit from such acquisition.
  • Both are trading on 0.5SD below their 5-year P/B average and we prefer CX in the short term, but Air China looks to be a better long-term choice. 

Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified

By Baptista Research

  • Generators and machine producer, Illinois Tool Works Inc.
  • (ITW) has reported a modest growth amidst the unique operational challenges faced in the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • In particular, the company confronted reduced demand for capital expenditure (CapEx), lean customer inventories and a strike within the automotive industry.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: HD Hyundai , Adbri, ADF Group , Ecolab Inc, Phillips 66 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Constituents of the 1st Corporate Value Up ETF in Korea
  • Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Binding A$3.20 Offer
  • DRX: Increasing Target Price on Improved Outlook
  • Ecolab Inc: Successful Pricing Initiatives and Delivered Product Costs (DPC) Management! – Major Drivers
  • Phillips 66: Is The Demand Recovery In The Refining Macro Enough To Warrant A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers


Constituents of the 1st Corporate Value Up ETF in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Active Management launched the first Corporate Value Up ETF called KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF on 27 February. It also revealed some of the major constituents of this ETF.
  • Samsung Active Management revealed the top 20 constituents of this ETF, which comprised 73.2% of the total ETF AUM.
  • In the coming weeks, there will be many other Corporate Value Up related ETFs that will be created that are similar to Samsung’s KoAct Dividend Growth ETF. 

Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Binding A$3.20 Offer

By Arun George

  • Adbri (ABC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with CRH (CRH US) and Barro at A$3.20 per share, a 41.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.27 (13 December).
  • The offer requires shareholder and FIRB approval. FIRB approval for the bidder, CRH, should be forthcoming as it is a Fortune 500 company with HQ in Ireland. 
  • The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.9%/6.6%.

DRX: Increasing Target Price on Improved Outlook

By Atrium Research

  • We are revisiting the assumptions in our model for ADF following strong industry data and positive conversations with management. 
  • We are increasing our revenue and profitability estimates from Q4 onward to reflect the more bullish outlook.
  • We have increased our target multiple to 6.5x FY25 EBITDA (previously 6.0x), leading to a new $13.00/share target price (previously $10.00/share).

Ecolab Inc: Successful Pricing Initiatives and Delivered Product Costs (DPC) Management! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ecolab Inc., during their latest earnings, highlighted strong growth in their fourth quarter performance for 2023, solidifying a favorable year for the company.
  • Despite unstable macroeconomic conditions, the team drove value-based pricing while consistently maintaining strong business momentum.
  • Their success arose from creating value for customers by enhancing operational performance, as well as reducing water and energy consumption.

Phillips 66: Is The Demand Recovery In The Refining Macro Enough To Warrant A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Phillips 66 delivered a strong performance in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2023.
  • It reported a total shareholder return of 33% in 2023 and also increased its quarterly dividend by 8%.
  • The company highlighted its diversified and integrated portfolio as a key aspect of its business strategy, claiming that it delivered strong returns on capital employed and a high payout ratio backed by dividend growth.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sfa Engineering, Baidu, NVIDIA Corp, Epam Systems and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Block Deal Sale of 5% Stake In SFA Engineering by Samsung Display
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$146)TP Change]: The Commercialization Path of AI Is Becoming Clear
  • IFS Connect Takeaways | Nvidia Earnings as the New Semiconductor King
  • EPAM Systems: Will The Strong Demand Generation From 2023 Continue In 2024 & Beyond? – Major Drivers


Block Deal Sale of 5% Stake In SFA Engineering by Samsung Display

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 February, Samsung Display announced that it will sell its 4.95% stake in Sfa Engineering (056190 KS) in a block deal sale. 
  • We would take the trade. We like the relatively large block deal sale discount as well as the company’s attractive valuations. 
  • SFA Engineering is trading at P/E of 8.3x, EV/EBITDA of 2.7x, and P/B of 0.7x in 2024, which are much lower than historical valuations.

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$146)TP Change]: The Commercialization Path of AI Is Becoming Clear

By Ying Pan

  • We expect Baidu to report C4Q23 revenue, GAAP op. profit and GAAP net income inline, (2.3%) and (4.5%) vs. consensus.
  • The slight bottom-line miss was mainly attribute to the increased marketing costs related to user acquisition. Baidu cloud revenue is robust due to AI product stimulating demand. 
  • We cut our target price to US$146 for the spendings related to the construction of future e-commerce business but maintain BUY for its cheap valuation.

IFS Connect Takeaways | Nvidia Earnings as the New Semiconductor King

By The Circuit

  • Nvidia emerges as a strong challenger in the semiconductor industry, while intel remains the dominant player
  • Intel makes significant strides in its foundry business, showcasing a clear focus on advanced nodes like 18A and 14A
  • Intel positions itself as a serious player in the foundry market, attracting key customers like Microsoft and building a strong ecosystem around its offerings

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


EPAM Systems: Will The Strong Demand Generation From 2023 Continue In 2024 & Beyond? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • EPAM Systems had a challenging year in 2023 due to geopolitical factors – Russian invasion of Ukraine – which led to disruption and a rebalancing of their delivery platform across Europe, Western and Central Asia, India, and Latin America.
  • Despite these external disturbances, EPAM managed to perform creditably, underlining its ability to navigate a volatile demand environment.
  • EPAM’s activities in 2023 were largely focused on enhancing delivery quality, optimizing cost effectiveness, and leveraging their technological capabilities to tap into the future opportunities in Gen AI and AI. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Immix Biopharma Inc, Bristol Myers Squibb Co, Eli Lilly & Co, Olympus Corp, OSE Immuno, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, West Pharmaceutical Services Inc, Boston Scientific, Xunfei Healthcare Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Immix Biopharma – 2023 recap with a preview of active year ahead
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: The Ongoing Growth Story Of Each Of Its Core Drugs! – Major Drivers
  • Eli Lilly & Company: Product pipeline evolution with focus on improved patient outcomes! – Major Drivers
  • Olympus Corp (7733 JP): Q3 Operating Profit Misses Estimates Despite Sales Beat; FY24 Guidance Cut
  • OSE Immunotherapeutics – Encouraging OSE-279 clinical update
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Commercial Launch of CASGEVY
  • West Pharmaceutical Services: Regulatory Shift Driving Increased Demand for High Value Products! – Major Drivers
  • Boston Scientific Corporation: Axonics & Other Acquisitions Are Potential Game Changers? – Major Drivers
  • Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology – Continuous Losses Will Be the Norm


Immix Biopharma – 2023 recap with a preview of active year ahead

By Edison Investment Research

IMMX has shared a 12-month recap, capturing key clinical and regulatory events from 2023, setting the stage for an active 2024. Its lead CAR-T asset (NXC-201) is a B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA) targeting therapy for amyloid light chain amyloidosis (ALA) and multiple myeloma (MM). The latest clinical data (Phase Ib/IIa NEXICART-1 trial) showed an overall response rate (ORR) of 100% in ALA patients (n=10) and 90% in MM patients (n=50). On the regulatory front, NXC-201 received Orphan Drug designation (ODD) in February 2024 from the EMA for ALA, and in Q323 from the FDA for ALA and MM. The FDA also cleared Immix’s Investigational New Drug (IND) application in Q423, permitting NXC-201 dosing at US trial sites (NEXICART-2 trial for ALA patients). We believe this is an important development step for NXC-201, and we look forward to rolling data readouts after the start of NEXICART-2, most likely in H124.


Bristol-Myers Squibb: The Ongoing Growth Story Of Each Of Its Core Drugs! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) reported a strong fourth quarter for 2023 with sales momentum in both their established and new product portfolios, showing a growth of 9% and earning nearly $10 billion in revenue.
  • Multiple key brands, including Eliquis, Opdivo, Reblozyl, Opdualag, Breyanzi, Camzyos, and Sotyktu, contributed to this growth.
  • In addition, BMS generated significant cash flows from operations amounting to $4.3 billion.

Eli Lilly & Company: Product pipeline evolution with focus on improved patient outcomes! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Eli Lilly and Company’s Q4 2023 earnings showed a year of growth and advancement for the company.
  • Revenue increased by 20 percent for the full year and 28 percent for the most recent quarter, as seen in the company’s newly launched portfolio gaining momentum.
  • Notably, the company received regulatory approvals for Zepbound, Jaypirca, Omvoh, Ebglyss in the EU, and an expanded label for Verzenio and two new indications for Jardiance within 2023.

Olympus Corp (7733 JP): Q3 Operating Profit Misses Estimates Despite Sales Beat; FY24 Guidance Cut

By Tina Banerjee

  • Olympus Corp (7733 JP) announced disappointing Q3FY24 result. Although revenue increased 7% YoY to ¥239B, beating estimate of ¥236B, operating profit declined 30% YoY to ¥34B, below estimate of ¥43B.
  • The company cut FY24 operating profit guidance for second time and reduced revenue guidance after raising it in November. Noto Peninsula earthquake is the main reason for reducing revenue guidance.
  • Although both revenue and profits are expected to improve in FY25, it will be difficult to achieve an operating margin of 20% and sales growth of 5%.

OSE Immunotherapeutics – Encouraging OSE-279 clinical update

By Edison Investment Research

At the 2024 ESMO Targeted Anticancer Therapies Congress, OSE Immunotherapeutics (OSE) presented encouraging interim results from the Phase I/II dose escalation and expansion study for OSE-279, its anti-PD1 monoclonal antibody. The data show promising preliminary efficacy in patients with advanced solid tumours with no therapeutics options available. The mono therapy has also continued to demonstrate a desirable pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) profile and manageable safety. OSE is investigating various combination approaches, such as with its lead cancer vaccine Tedopi, which we believe could maximise the potential of its proprietary therapies. OSE has six ongoing clinical studies (across several indications) and three pre-clinical assets and, in our view, the most significant upcoming milestone for the company will be initiation of the confirmatory Phase III trial for Tedopi in second-line non-small cell lung cancer (Q224 in the US and extension to European sites in H224).


Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Commercial Launch of CASGEVY

By Baptista Research

  • During Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call, the company highlighted the achievements of the past year, including the strong financial results they achieved and the progress of their various drug development programs.
  • Vertex continued its impressive growth streak, achieving full year CF product revenues of $9.87 billion, which represents an 11% growth from 2022.
  • The company attributes this growth primarily to the increased number of CF patients being reached and the groundbreaking approvals of CASGEVY, the first-ever CRISPR/Cas9-based therapy.

West Pharmaceutical Services: Regulatory Shift Driving Increased Demand for High Value Products! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • West Pharmaceutical Services recently held its fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call, closely examining their financial results, providing an update on their business operations, and presenting an overview of their financial outlook for the full year of 2024.
  • The company reported a significant base growth in 2023, which offset a decrease of COVID-19-related sales by about $320 million.
  • This growth was mainly driven by expanding customer demand for the company’s high value product offerings and their contract manufacturing services.

Boston Scientific Corporation: Axonics & Other Acquisitions Are Potential Game Changers? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Boston Scientific Corporation experienced an exceptional performance in 2023, delivering one of the strongest years in the company’s history by surpassing set financial goals.
  • Throughout the year, total company operational sales grew by 15% and organic sales by 14%, exceeding the high-end guidance range of 8% to 10%.
  • Operational sales growth for the full year was registered at 13%, and organic sales grew by 12%.

Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology – Continuous Losses Will Be the Norm

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In healthcare AI industry, the commercialization process is complex and burdened with challenges. Related products mainly plays an auxiliary role in medical scenarios, rather than a core support or rigid-demand. 
  • The idea of creating corresponding solutions for C-end and B-end customers by FUNFEI is not inappropriate. However, both B-end and C-end businesses of FUNFEI have encountered varying degrees of problems.
  • We’re not optimistic about XUNFEI’s profitability. The sluggish stock price performance after Airdoc’s listing indicates that the market/investors have not fully recognized healthcare AI enterprises, leading to low valuation.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Outsourcing Inc, Ecopro BM , Cathay Pacific Airways, MTAR Technologies, Comfortdelgro Corp, Air China Ltd (H), Illinois Tool Works and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB
  • Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure
  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer
  • Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI
  • Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages
  • MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis
  • Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists
  • Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?
  • Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified


Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB

By Travis Lundy

  • After an extension due to a European Foreign Subsidies Review filing, and a small ‘accident’ regarding the earnings release, we have a deal. 
  • The earnings release itself seemed more innocuous than articles and rumour suggested show the causes of impairments and so it seemed like there was little cause to walk/declare MAC.
  • Now it will be done in 20 days. I still think this is cheeky, opportunistic, and low, and it is up to the float to decide what to do.

Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure

By Sanghyun Park

  • The schedule includes submitting the transfer listing application post-EGM on March 26th. KRX approval expected in 4-6 weeks due to Ecopro BM’s financial soundness. KOSPI listing follows in 2-3 weeks.
  • As for KOSDAQ 150 ad-hoc change, it will be replaced with the top reserved issue. The anticipated timing for this ad-hoc change is around mid or late May.
  • Following Feb 7 disclosure, stock surged over 10% in 2 days. Precedents show rallies pre-shareholder meetings, but KOSPI listing brings corrections. Today’s resolution could boost Ecopro BM short term.

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) announced that the pre-condition was satisfied, and Bain’s tender offer remains unchanged at JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December).
  • Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief as the weak 4Q and significant impairments have raised concerns that Bain would cut its offer or walk away.
  • The offer attractiveness has increased partly due to lower consensus. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%/22.8%.

Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer

By Brian Freitas

  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS)‘s Board has approved the delisting of the stock from the KOSDAQ market and to list on the KOSPI market. The shareholder meeting is on 26 March. 
  • Historically, the KRX has taken an average of 64 days from application to approve the listing to transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market.
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS) will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index on its last trading day and inclusion in the KOSPI 200 Index could take place in September.

Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 February, Ecopro BM (247540 KS) announced that it will switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
  • Ecopro BM currently has a market cap of 23.1 trillion won. It is the largest stock in KOSDAQ right now and it would be the 17th largest stock in KOSPI.
  • Lofty valuation is one of the main reasons why we continue to be bearish on Ecopro BM. It is trading at P/E of 203x in 2024 and 71x in 2025.

Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages

By Neil Glynn

  • We publish a deep dive on historical margin management at Cathay Pacific following Bloomberg reports that Air China is considering raising its 29.99% stake.
  • We see Cathay’s consistent underperformance of the global industry as due to structural disadvantages competing against lower cost competitors without the benefit of attractive joint ventures or M&A.
  • Our deep dive comparing margin generation to ten major global peers highlights weak pricing power without sufficient offset from staff cost/other cost efficiencies as the key problem.

MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH IN)  is a precision engineered company that caters to customers in clean energy, Space, Defense sectors, etc. 
  • The company has done well over the last few years in terms of securing business, however there are concerns on the margins end, working capital and cash generation. 
  • There also exists a high business risk in terms of customer concentration since more than 75% of the revenues (F23) come from one single entity.

Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists

By Henry Soediarko

  • Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) share price has underperformed its tourism related transport operator peers.
  • Key drivers are still strong, including the expected influx of Chinese tourists from visa-free travel arrangements.
  • Valuation is still compelling, and it is not too late to own it.

Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Speculations on Air China Ltd (753 HK) seeking control of Cathay Pacific (293 HK) reappeared recently. We think a change in CX’s ownership is just a matter of time.
  • CX has been a more important profit contributor to Air China after the pandemic, and depends on pricing, Air China is expected to benefit from such acquisition.
  • Both are trading on 0.5SD below their 5-year P/B average and we prefer CX in the short term, but Air China looks to be a better long-term choice. 

Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified

By Baptista Research

  • Generators and machine producer, Illinois Tool Works Inc.
  • (ITW) has reported a modest growth amidst the unique operational challenges faced in the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • In particular, the company confronted reduced demand for capital expenditure (CapEx), lean customer inventories and a strike within the automotive industry.

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Daily Brief Financials: BFI Finance Indonesia, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar, Inmobiliaria Colonial Sa, China Vanke and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Visibility Improves
  • Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 12 Changes Possible in the Next Few Days
  • Core Quality at Unjustified Discount
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Visibility Improves

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia saw a marked turnaround in new bookings and a declining NPF ratio in 4Q2023, as its business recovered from the malware attack in May last year.
  • The company has started to be more aggressive in non-dealer 4W space but remains cautious on 2W. Write-offs peaked in 4Q2023 and will decline in 2024, leading to lower CoC. 
  • BFIN will launch a tripartite collaboration with GoTo and Bank Jago which will help to drive future bookings growth. Valuations remain attractive with BFIN trading in 2.0x PBV 

Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF

By Brian Freitas

  • The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February.
  • There are 45 stocks in the ETF and the aim is to beat the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX) by employing an active management strategy. 
  • Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials stocks make up nearly two-thirds of the ETF, the dividend yield of the underlying basket is 4% and the forward dividend yield is slightly higher.

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 12 Changes Possible in the Next Few Days

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • Based on the latest available data, I expect up to 12 index changes over the next few days including an intra-review change!

Core Quality at Unjustified Discount

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Inmobiliaria Colonial Sa (COL SM), with a quality portfolio, trades at 55% discount to NAV. Lacking short-term catalysts, buy on improving earnings guidance, rate cuts and favorable market conditions.
  • Colonial probably has one of the best-quality office portfolio in Europe, with the great majority of its assets are situated in core areas of Paris, Madrid, and Barcelona.
  • Colonial offers a 24.5% upside, which implies a 40% discount/NAV. The shares offer a 5.26% 2024e dividend yield (source: IBES), which I consider sustainable over time.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Toei Animation, Tongcheng Travel Holdings , Rakuten Group , Li Auto , Samsonite, Matahari Department Store, Luckin Coffee, Dollar Index and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting
  • Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal
  • Rakuten’s New “Bond-Type Share” Issuance – Quite Quirky to Quantulate Rakuten’s Quisquous New Quoz
  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)
  • Samsonite (1910 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • Samsonite (1910 HK): Leader Of The Pack
  • Samsonite (1910 HK) Takeover Interest: Hold on to These Shares
  • Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) – Primed for Recovery
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$41) TP Change]: Weak Earnings Could Be Temporary…Reiterate BUY
  • U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.


Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting

By Travis Lundy


Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal

By Travis Lundy

  • The Hang Seng Index, HSCEI, and HS Tech rebals were announced on 16 Feb. Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA had expected GDS out, Tongcheng Travel in on HSTECH, along with the…
  • …deletion of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) in HSCEI, with a low conviction replacement of Zijin Mining, which turned out to be an add of China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)
  • No changes to the main HSI Index, which means evolution is further delayed. Today was the day to recap the caps. Mar1 Flow estimates are included below for all three.

Rakuten’s New “Bond-Type Share” Issuance – Quite Quirky to Quantulate Rakuten’s Quisquous New Quoz

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue “Bond-Type Class Shares.”   First reaction: You wot, mate?
  • The company states it wants to “strengthen its financial base through reducing interesting-bearing debt by equity-related financings and conduct proactive control of debt maturity schedule, etc.”
  • Now it wants to issue listed bond-type shares. Dividends not interest. The last Japanese issuer of something similar was NEC in 2001. Few will remember, so we study the situation.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)

By Brian Freitas


Samsonite (1910 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that Samsonite (1910 HK) is drawing takeover interest from several PE firms which aim to relist Samsonite in the US to draw a higher valuation. 
  • A standard takeover premium (around 30%) should be sufficient due to the shareholder register. There is no single large shareholder(s) to pose an issue to an offer. 
  • The probability of an offer is medium, with an offer price likely around HK$30.00. Irrespective of a binding offer, the upside remains as Samsonite trades at an undemanding valuation. 

Samsonite (1910 HK): Leader Of The Pack

By David Blennerhassett

  • Luggage maker Samsonite (1910 HK) is up 11.8% today, as I type, after Bloomberg reported it is working with advisers as it studies possibilities, including going private.
  • With the reopening of China and the ongoing recovery in travel globally, Samsonite’s net sales improved markedly across all regions. 1H23 profit gained 185.3% versus 1H22.
  • FY23 figures should be out in the middle of next month.

Samsonite (1910 HK) Takeover Interest: Hold on to These Shares

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Bloomberg reported that Samsonite (1910 HK) is considering several options, including going private, and there are several suitors including from buyout firms  
  • Share price has surged by 14% in the morning session. Stock is still very cheap, at 10.5x PE, 7.5x EV/EBITDA with an impressive ROE of 30%
  • Our quick take values Samsonite at HKD34/share, based on its forecasted +1 year earnings multiplied to its average long-term PE of 15.5x 

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) – Primed for Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) reported another slow set of results in 4Q2023, as it saw slower demand and continues to clear aged inventory. 
  • The company is well-prepared for the upcoming Lebaran season with more conservative inventory levels. It will also see the benefits of new brands coming on stream this year. 
  • Matahari Department Store will open 4-6 new stores in 2024 but close 10 underperforming stores, with a continued focus on new DP brands like SUKO. Valuations remain attractive. 

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$41) TP Change]: Weak Earnings Could Be Temporary…Reiterate BUY

By Eric Wen

  • Luckin Coffee reported 4Q23 revenue/non-GAAP NI in-line/(39.8%) vs. our estimate due to (1) extra winter subsidies; (2) rental cost from new stores; (3) more operating expenditures.
  • We view the non-GAAP NPM decline to 5.1% in 4Q23 as temporary and outlook for sequential improvements in 1H24 from (1)ASP rebound from easing competition, (2)efficiency improvement in rental cost
  • We think Luckin’s profitability outlook is intact and maintain BUY rating, but lower TP by US$2 to US$41 to factor in the rising cost.

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

By Joe Jasper

  • Large-Cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
  • Mid-Caps (S&P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
  • Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Parade Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Parade Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals
  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 19-Feb-24 to 23-Feb-24
  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 23rd): Posco Holdings, Rotem


Parade Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Following disappointing near-term guidance, Parade Technologies (4966 TT) remains firmly amid an earnings downgrade cycle.
  • With Parade Technologies breaching overbought territory, near-term momentum indicators are displaying bearish signals.
  • Parade Technologies currently trades on a 24.6x NTM PE ratio, above its rolling 5-year historic average trading range.

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 19-Feb-24 to 23-Feb-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs fail to move higher in spite of new highs in NIFTY50 Index 
  • New banking regulations from the RBI causing frothiness in BankNifty options market
  • Regime Switching Model is in the process of switching from “High & Up” to “High & Down” Vol state

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 23rd): Posco Holdings, Rotem

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Feb 23rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD7.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest weekly changes in Posco Holdings, Rotem.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

By Joe Jasper

  • Large-Cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
  • Mid-Caps (S&P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
  • Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Lacklustre; Buffett Talks up Trading Companies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Lacklustre; Buffett Talks up Trading Companies
  • US Banks – Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive
  • Europe’s Magnificent Eleven
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LI/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK/BEKE/ZLAB
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP
  • Retail Media in Japan: More Revenue for Retailers, More Sales for Brands
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended February 23, 2024
  • Postcard from Mandya | Cruising Around the Sugar City in a BYD


Ohayo Japan | Lacklustre; Buffett Talks up Trading Companies

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed Tuesday with slight gains ahead of key inflation data.
  • Japanese trading houses soared to record highs following Warren Buffett’s bullish remarks, robust earnings, and share buyback plans
  • Japan core consumer price index, excluding fresh food, rose by 2% year-on-year, down from December’s 2.3% increase

US Banks – Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&I loan growth YoY in the most recent week’s data
  • Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago
  • Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week’s data, suggesting still core income pressure

Europe’s Magnificent Eleven

By Investment Talk

  • I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.
  • The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .
  • Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK/BEKE/ZLAB

By Eric Wen

  • LI/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK:  Sales of strong EV brands held up better during CNY, Li and Tesla led and AITO and BYD followed (+)
  • BEKE : ByteDance suspend self-operating home decoration business( + )
  • ZLAB:Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) outsources Opdivo sales in ten southwestern provinces to Zai Lab, a long-term positive but with many prerequisites (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

By Ying Pan

  • 1810 HK/BIDU: Google’s Gemma is an important move for client-side AI (+)
  • 3690 HK: Local news said Douyin has deemphasized take out business (+)
  • PDD/4689 JP/AMZN/4385 JP/4755 JP: Data indicates that Temu is particularly popular in Japan (+/~/-/-/-)

Retail Media in Japan: More Revenue for Retailers, More Sales for Brands

By Michael Causton

  • The growth in retail media (brand advertising delivered in stores based on detailed customer data) continues to be one of the big trends in 2024.
  • Large retailers are keen to add this new revenue stream – and lots of brands want to advertise with them – and companies like Rakuten are offering this service directly.
  • For many retailers, they still need help from experts in advertising and data analysis to make it work, providing an opportunity for Hakuhodo among others.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended February 23, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down by 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).
  • Energy Technology (12.7% of the index) was down by 10.5%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (55.2% of the index) was up by 2.0%, ClimateTech Mining was down 6.8%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 2.2%.
  • Top 10 Performers: EFOI, IPWR, CYDVF, ROOF, PGTK, CLIR, LITM, FIX, LOOP, RE

Postcard from Mandya | Cruising Around the Sugar City in a BYD

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • With the “Postcard” series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.
  • For this Postcard, we traveled to Mandya, a city in the southern state of Karnataka, also known as the ‘Sugar City,’ on a rented E6 by BYD (1211 HK).  
  • Sectors in focus include Consumer Finance, Mortgage Lenders, and Retailers.

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