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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ESG: A New Type Of “Deemed Shareholding” Has Emerged! and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • A New Type Of “Deemed Shareholding” Has Emerged!


A New Type Of “Deemed Shareholding” Has Emerged!

By Aki Matsumoto

  • For first time in 30 years, the fund is back, matching the demand of companies that want to reduce cross-holdings immediately and companies that want more time to sell cross-holdings.
  • If the voting rights of cross-shareholdings contributed to the fund are retained, corporate governance will remain an issue until the fund’s investment is terminated.
  • In reviewing recently filed annual securities reports, we often see cases where cross-held shares in more closely related companies are contributed to retirement benefit trusts instead of being sold.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report : How Indian Markets Performed After Steep Falls and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report : How Indian Markets Performed After Steep Falls
  • [Counting Beans 2024/32] Grains Rise on Weak USD But Ample Supplies Limit Gains
  • TSMC July Revenue Surges 44.7% YoY, Sets A New Record Monthly High
  • Consumer Tales Aug Wk#2: DFI Retail Pivots, Kalyan Glitters, Ola Lists, FirstCry IPO Closes
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 09/08/2024


Thematic Report : How Indian Markets Performed After Steep Falls

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Markets have a tendency to bounce back after steep falls, offering opportunities for investors to benefit from the recovery. 
  • By understanding historical data and market patterns, investors can make informed decisions and stay resilient during turbulent times.
  • As we move forward, it’s important to remember that market fluctuations are a normal part of investing, and staying focused on long-term goals is crucial for success.

[Counting Beans 2024/32] Grains Rise on Weak USD But Ample Supplies Limit Gains

By Amrutha Raj

  • Wheat prices surged due to strong demand and reduced European harvests. Favorable weather conditions in the US limited further gains.
  • Corn prices initially rose on strong exports but retreated as the dollar strengthened and focus shifted to abundant supplies.
  • Soybean prices experienced a short-lived rally due to short covering and a weak dollar. Expectations of record US production and sluggish demand capped gains.

TSMC July Revenue Surges 44.7% YoY, Sets A New Record Monthly High

By William Keating

  • TSMC July revenues of NT$256.95 billion, +23.6% MoM & + a whopping 44.7% YoY
  • Q224 silicon area wafer shipments amounted to 3,035 MSI, up 7.1% QoQ but down 8.9% YoY
  • Q224 semiconductor sales reached $149.9 billion, +6.5% QoQ and +18.3% YoY.

Consumer Tales Aug Wk#2: DFI Retail Pivots, Kalyan Glitters, Ola Lists, FirstCry IPO Closes

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • DFI Retail (DFI SP) : Improved profitability and robust cash flows makes the stock attractive with limited downside; it is trading at nearly 5% dividend yield.
  • Ola Electric IPO was oversubscribed by 4.26 times and debuted at par with the issue price of Rs76 at the exchanges today

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 09/08/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price NOK52 per share: All eyes on EG – 1H24 production was 9,168 bbl/d.
  • EG and Gabon production had already been disclosed.
  • 1H24 production in Tunisia was 1,670 bbl/d (we forecasted 1,760 bbl/d) given subdued activities.

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Daily Brief ECM: Rubicon Research Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Rubicon Research Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Rubicon Research Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, IIFL, JM Fin and SBI Caps. 
  • Rubicon Research is a pharmaceutical formulations company with an increasing portfolio of specialty products and drug-device combination products targeting regulated markets, particularly, the United States.
  • It was ranked among the top 10 Indian companies, in terms of total Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) approvals, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings


Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Thoughts On Swire Properties (1972 HK)’s Buyback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Thoughts On Swire Properties (1972 HK)’s Buyback
  • Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?
  • Targeting Spreads by Leveraging the High Predictability of the Celltrion Merger
  • Block Deal Sale of About 98 Billion Won Worth of Acushnet Holdings by Fila Holdings
  • Reddit (RDDT): Post-IPO Inclusion in US & Global Indices
  • EQD | The HSI Rebound Can Reach Higher Prices in August


Thoughts On Swire Properties (1972 HK)’s Buyback

By David Blennerhassett


Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

By Travis Lundy

  • A Reuters article overnight says Trend Micro might be up for sale. This caused the ADRs to jump 10% overnight. The remaining co-founders are 65 and 70 this year. 
  • The stock has effectively gone sideways the last few years as Value Act has been activisting. Now one has to exercise one’s imagination to think about a possible sale price. 
  • On a DCF basis, a PE fund couldn’t reasonably do this. Multiples are too high. That means a strategic buyer would be more likely. But Who? Why? And How much?

Targeting Spreads by Leveraging the High Predictability of the Celltrion Merger

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local market views Celltrion’s shareholder survey as the start of the merger process, with a decision expected from the boards within two to three months if there’s no major opposition.
  • Under Korean law, if Celltrion Pharm’s market cap is under one-tenth of Celltrion’s, the merger can proceed as a small-scale merger, allowing Celltrion to avoid shareholder approval and appraisal rights.
  • We should leverage the merger’s high predictability to proactively target merger swap and appraisal rights spreads and build a strategy in advance.

Block Deal Sale of About 98 Billion Won Worth of Acushnet Holdings by Fila Holdings

By Douglas Kim

  • Fila Holdings announced that its subsidiary Magnus Holdings plans to sell a 1.8% stake in Acushnet Holdings in a block deal sale worth about 98 billion won. 
  • Our NAV valuation of Fila Holdings suggests an implied value per share of 49,192 won, representing 18.2% upside from current levels. Fila Holdings’ 51.9% stake in Acushnet Holdings.
  • The block deal sale of Acushnet Holdings by Magnus Holdings is likely to have a positive impact on Fila Holdings as it could result in higher capital returns to shareholders.

Reddit (RDDT): Post-IPO Inclusion in US & Global Indices

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Reddit (RDDT US) is ineligible for inclusion for the upcoming August review because of fcap failing the fcap threshold if it qualifies for the standard segment. 
  • Reddit (RDDT US) is ineligible for inclusion for the upcoming September review because of failing the minimum public voting rights threshold.
  • The IPO lock-up expiry increases the probability for inclusion in November and December review for US and Global indices. Forecasted demand in December is ~$360m and 2.1 ADV. 

EQD | The HSI Rebound Can Reach Higher Prices in August

By Nico Rosti

  • In a previous insight we forecasted a rally for the Hang Seng Index in August. The picture has not changed, a positive close above 17344.60 is still possible.
  • Looking at our MRM SHORT WEEKLY model for the HSI we can see that it has not yet reached overbought levels, so it could rise further in the next weeks.
  • Conversely a SHORT trade will be possible from the levels we will indicate below.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: The Beat Ideas: Aarti Industries Ltd.- Capex and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas: Aarti Industries Ltd.- Capex, Growth, Value Addition!
  • [Earnings Review] Despite Production Growth Chevron’s Profit Falls Due to Lower Refining Margins
  • Siemens Energy: Winds of Change – [Business Breakdowns, EP.177]
  • Goldman Sachs CIO on How the Bank Is Actually Using AI
  • Ace Hardware (ACES IJ) – New Aspirations in Place
  • Yum China (9987 HK): The Best Long-Term China Catering Play
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-Aug-2024): TSMC breaks records with record July orders.
  • Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – Strength in Diversity
  • Struggles in China Hurt Uniqlo’s Bottom Line


The Beat Ideas: Aarti Industries Ltd.- Capex, Growth, Value Addition!

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Aarti Industries (ARTO IN)  is planning a huge capex of 2500 Cr, which will increase their PPE by more than 50% from current CWIP and new capex.
  • Company is targeting 1450 to 1700Cr EBITDA in next year which is almost 1.5x to 2x of the existing EBITDA.
  • Introducing new products in the value chain, which has high-value added and high margins.

[Earnings Review] Despite Production Growth Chevron’s Profit Falls Due to Lower Refining Margins

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chevron’s Q2 revenue grew 4.7% YoY but its net profit fell by 26.2%. Revenue beat estimates by 1% while EPS missed expectations by 13%.
  • Production grew 11% YoY, driven by record output in the Permian, strong growth in the DJ Basin, and successful PDC Energy integration.
  • Q2 capex rose 5.2% YoY to USD 4 billion from higher upstream investments and PDC asset spending. Free cash flow dropped 8% YoY to USD 2.3 billion.

Siemens Energy: Winds of Change – [Business Breakdowns, EP.177]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Siemens Energy is a spin-off from Siemens focused on gas, power, and renewables, positioning itself at the forefront of the energy transition.
  • The company faces challenges, particularly in its renewables division, dealing with supply chain disruptions and technical issues.
  • Mark Heiley, founder of The Analyst, discusses Siemens Energy’s history, impetus for demerger, and potential in addressing renewable energy challenges.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Goldman Sachs CIO on How the Bank Is Actually Using AI

By Odd Lots

  • Tracy and Joe discuss their favorite chat GPT and Claude prompts and how they use them for both serious and fun purposes
  • They acknowledge the limitations and risks of using AI in professional settings, especially in large companies like Goldman Sachs
  • Marco Argenti, Chief Information Officer at Goldman Sachs, explains his role in ensuring the smooth operation of technology within the company and the evolving use of AI in the financial industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Ace Hardware (ACES IJ) – New Aspirations in Place

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) reported an impressive set of 1H2024 results with continuing momentum behind SSSG driven by promotional campaigns but margins remained stable at the same time.
  • The company continues to open new format stores and renovate existing ones. It has also introduced new private label brands to drive growth and will introduce 15% new SKUs. 
  • The company will be renamed PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia to reflect the separation from ACE US but we see the impact as minimal. Valuations remain attractive on 12.6x FY2025E PER.

Yum China (9987 HK): The Best Long-Term China Catering Play

By Eric Chen

  • We believe Yum China remains the best long-term China catering play. 2Q24 results highlight the resiliency and agility of its business model and management to navigate tough environment.
  • While cost optimization drove bottom-line beat, we share management’s view that it is not one-off exercise but will strengthen the company’s operation efficiency moat and market leadership.
  • Macro concerns are well known and fully priced in in our view. Otherwise investors won’t have the opportunity to own the name for low double-digit P/E.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (10-Aug-2024): TSMC breaks records with record July orders.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • TSMC achieves record-breaking performance in July thanks to high demand from key clients like Apple, Intel, and Nvidia.
  • Chang Wah Electromaterials appoints new CEO and plans a major US$100M expansion in Malaysia through CWTC.
  • South Korean micro LED component makers target the backplane market with AI-driven AR and VR technologies gaining popularity, while Taiwan’s PCB sector faces sustainability challenges in Southeast Asia.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY03/25 forecast: Revenue JPY2.30tn (+25.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY627.0bn (+37.4% YoY), Recurring profit JPY630.0bn (+36.0% YoY).
  • R&D investment plan: JPY1.5tn over FY03/25–FY03/29, with JPY253.0bn in FY03/25 for new development buildings and equipment.
  • Shareholder returns: JPY319.8bn total, including JPY79.9bn for share buybacks and JPY239.8bn for dividends.

Astra International (ASII IJ) – Strength in Diversity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) saw a slight decline in its core earnings in 1H2024, which was an admirable performance given the weakness in the auto market and commodities divisions.
  • Offsetting the weakness in autos, Astra saw strong performances from its financing businesses for 4W, 2W, heavy equipment, and consumer finance, which booked +8% YoY growth in 1H2024. 
  • Astra remains a key proxy for the overall Indonesian economy, with the diversity of its earnings exposure underpinning its resilience. Valuations are attractive, supported by a 9% FY2024E dividend yield. 

Struggles in China Hurt Uniqlo’s Bottom Line

By Caixin Global

  • Uniqlo Co. Ltd.’s strategy of raising prices in the face of rising costs has taken a toll on the Japanese clothing retailer’s bottom line in China due to growing competition and thriftier consumers.
  • The fast-fashion chain’s Greater China profit and revenue both fell in local currency terms during the March-May period, dragged down by poor performance on the Chinese mainland and in Hong Kong, according to earnings results released last month by its parent company, Fast Retailing Co. Ltd. The results did not provide specific earnings figures for the period.
  • Fast Retailing attributed the poor performance to lackluster consumer appetite, unseasonal weather and an insufficient product lineup to satisfy local customer needs.

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Daily Brief Macro: BOJ and Carry Trade: THE BUTTERFLY FLAPPED ITS WINGS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • BOJ and Carry Trade: THE BUTTERFLY FLAPPED ITS WINGS
  • THE NEXT MELTDOWN
  • [ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates
  • What we learnt at Diggers 2024
  • Macro Regime Indicator: Liquidity is Starting to Improve
  • CX Daily: Why and How China’s Overhauling Monetary Policy (Part 2)
  • Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (9 Aug 2024)
  • Will Delayed La Niña Onset Fuel Weather Risks Firing up Corn Prices?
  • ETFs that Benefit from ASEAN’s Economic Opportunities in the Long Term
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 9 Aug 2024


BOJ and Carry Trade: THE BUTTERFLY FLAPPED ITS WINGS

By David Mudd

  • The crowded JPY carry trade will not unwind quickly although future unwind episodes may not be as dramatic.
  • The size of the carry trade is unknown, however its correlation to various asset classes is predictable.
  • The largest question for global markets is whether the unwind of the JPY carry trade is a harbinger of tighter monetary conditions globally as markets decline and leverage tightens.

THE NEXT MELTDOWN

By Grant’s Current Yield Podcast

  • VIX has become lively, reintroducing volatility to the markets
  • Small caps are gaining attention after being neglected for years
  • Discussion on credit cycles and potential risks in commercial real estate market, with a focus on interest rates and property values

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[ETP 32/2024] Oil Prices Rebound; Occidental, Exxon, and Aramco Beat Earnings Estimates

By Suhas Reddy

  • US crude inventories fell for the sixth straight week by 3.7 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. However, gasoline stocks rise by 1.3 mb.
  • For the week ending 02/Aug, US natural gas inventories were up 8.2% YoY and 14.9% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Occidental shares surged as it beat Q2 EPS estimates by 32.5%. Exxon and Aramco also exceeded EPS forecasts, while Chevron fell short.

What we learnt at Diggers 2024

By Money of Mine

  • Discussion on the recent market volatility, particularly in metals markets
  • Gold being a standout performer, while other commodities struggle
  • Challenges in finding solid investment opportunities and concerns about earnings for gold companies

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Macro Regime Indicator: Liquidity is Starting to Improve

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome back to our monthly regime update, sharing insights from our data hub on cross-asset returns in different regimes.
  • Coming into July, we wrote: “While we are not convinced of the general US recession call following the poor ISM Services report, our forecasts for the coming month place us in the ‘QE (Like)’ regime bucket – Growth lower, Inflation lower, and Liquidity higher.
  • That said, our slightly rosier view on Growth (compared to consensus) leads us to consider and balance this against asset performance in the ‘Gung ho’ regime (Growth and Liquidity higher, Inflation lower).” And while, we had the input variables and our forecasts almost 100% correct, the market ended up souring substantially after the CPI report in Mid July due to the turning tide in USDJPY.

CX Daily: Why and How China’s Overhauling Monetary Policy (Part 2)

By Caixin Global

  • Monetary / Caixin Explains: Why and how China’s overhauling monetary policy (Part 2)
  • Housing /: Guangzhou district uses quasi-Hukou to lure new homebuyers
  • Land /: Shanghai plot in high-end district breaks 2016 price record

Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (9 Aug 2024)

By Alex Ng

  • Hang Seng recovered by 2.48% to 17000 level and S&P 500 declined by 1.07% over the past week. S&P was particularly hit by the global stock decline on Black Monday.
  • We are betting Hang Seng will be up for one more week and hence is heavily loading up call position on Hong Kong stocks.
  • US market is much harder to predict in the coming month and therefore we are not easily building up any position in it first, until rate cut in September.

Will Delayed La Niña Onset Fuel Weather Risks Firing up Corn Prices?

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Last El Niño was one of the strongest on record, and typically are followed by La Niña, but this transition has yet to occur. 
  • Latest ONI Reading and trend shows possibility of La Niña developing in August-October, could coincide with winter. 
  • Historically, adverse weather changes and high hurricane incidence are likely to spoil bearish bets against corn and lead to sustained price recovery.

ETFs that Benefit from ASEAN’s Economic Opportunities in the Long Term

By Alex Ng

  • ASEAN will be the engine of global economic growth in the coming decades. 
  • With stocks in ASEAN countries benefiting from rapid economic growth, the Premia Dow Jones Emerging ASEAN Titans 100 ETF (SEHK 2810) and FTSE SE Asia ETF (NYSE: ASEA) will thrive.
  • Southeast Asia is the next “economic miracle” after the BRICs and stocks there could thrive in coming years.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 9 Aug 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Japan’s market is driven by currency fluctuations, posing investment risks.
  • US export controls hurt American companies while strengthening China’s domestic supply chains.
  • Asian economies show slight decline, with some PMIs dipping below 50.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #38 – Ethereum versus Solana and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #38 – Ethereum versus Solana


Crypto Moves #38 – Ethereum versus Solana

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Solana, currently the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, has made a remarkable resurgence, particularly since the beginning of 2023.
  • This comeback is extremely impressive given that many had written off Solana after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX empire in November 2022.
  • FTX had been crucial in promoting Solana and establishing its vital network effect from the start.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Celltrion Pharm, Fila Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Targeting Spreads by Leveraging the High Predictability of the Celltrion Merger
  • Block Deal Sale of About 98 Billion Won Worth of Acushnet Holdings by Fila Holdings


Targeting Spreads by Leveraging the High Predictability of the Celltrion Merger

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local market views Celltrion’s shareholder survey as the start of the merger process, with a decision expected from the boards within two to three months if there’s no major opposition.
  • Under Korean law, if Celltrion Pharm’s market cap is under one-tenth of Celltrion’s, the merger can proceed as a small-scale merger, allowing Celltrion to avoid shareholder approval and appraisal rights.
  • We should leverage the merger’s high predictability to proactively target merger swap and appraisal rights spreads and build a strategy in advance.

Block Deal Sale of About 98 Billion Won Worth of Acushnet Holdings by Fila Holdings

By Douglas Kim

  • Fila Holdings announced that its subsidiary Magnus Holdings plans to sell a 1.8% stake in Acushnet Holdings in a block deal sale worth about 98 billion won. 
  • Our NAV valuation of Fila Holdings suggests an implied value per share of 49,192 won, representing 18.2% upside from current levels. Fila Holdings’ 51.9% stake in Acushnet Holdings.
  • The block deal sale of Acushnet Holdings by Magnus Holdings is likely to have a positive impact on Fila Holdings as it could result in higher capital returns to shareholders.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Valeura Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Production guidance re-iterated but lower capex and additional resources


Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Production guidance re-iterated but lower capex and additional resources

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The 2Q24 production and the cash position at the end of June had previously been reported.
  • • Development drilling at Nong Yao C has been completed with the 6 development wells encountering the reservoirs in line with expectations.
  • One appraisal well was successful and will be converted into a seventh production well.

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