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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: Hong Kong Dollar Carry Trade and Its Influence on Hong Kong Market and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Dollar Carry Trade and Its Influence on Hong Kong Market
  • EUR-flation Watch: Hands down, I was wrong..
  • Macro Nugget: Trillions of USDs waiting to be unleashed
  • Policy Watch – How well is Russia doing?
  • UK Housing Shock Has Blown Over Again
  • CX Daily: China Overhauls Company Law


Hong Kong Dollar Carry Trade and Its Influence on Hong Kong Market

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) Carry Trade (CT) is an good leading indicator of the directional trend of the Hong Kong Market
  • Recently the HKD CT has been trending to a less positive/flat position
  • Hong Kong Aggregate Balance will no longer provide cushion against HIBOR rising due to the HKD peg system

EUR-flation Watch: Hands down, I was wrong..

By Andreas Steno

  • We had hoped for a soft European inflation report in February, but we have to admit that we were off.
  • End of discussion.
  • Rents, energy-tariffs / network-prices and a few wage heavy service categories continue to keep February inflation numbers elevated, albeit substantially lower than in 2023, and our nowcasts suffer a bit from changes in lead/lags on especially wage heavy categories.

Macro Nugget: Trillions of USDs waiting to be unleashed

By Andreas Steno

  • If we look at M2 trends (narrow money + time deposit / MMFs and similar assets), the broad USD measure remains a staggering 18% above trend with M2 nominally trending almost 4 trillion USDs above a long-term trajectory.
  • The similar trend in EURs is much less extraordinary with M2 currently 7% above trend, which translates to a little more than 1 trillion EURs nominally.
  • There is still a large excess of USDs in the systemSo where are those excess USDs parked?

Policy Watch – How well is Russia doing?

By Anne Sandager

  • In a few short weeks, Vladimir Putin will be announced the winner of the Russian Presidential election.
  • As a formality, Russian voters will head to the polls between March 15th and 17th, but the result is predetermined: the man behind the ongoing invasion of Ukraine will lead Russia for the next six years in an unprecedented third term as President.
  • But with sanctions mounting against the Russian economy – the latest of which were announced just this Friday by President Biden – how long can Putin sustain military aggression in Ukraine?

UK Housing Shock Has Blown Over Again

By Phil Rush

  • Interest rate spikes in 2022 and 2023 rattled the housing market, but prompt reversals in market rates dissipated the shocks before they were adequately felt.
  • UK mortgage rates are back to their lows from last spring, and approvals for new loans are higher than then. Lending values are set to turn positive again soon.
  • The risk to economic activity and RPI inflation increasingly appears to have blown over, with housing depreciation troughing and MIPs unlikely to turn negative soon.

CX Daily: China Overhauls Company Law

By Caixin Global

  • Law / In Depth: China overhauls Company Law
  • Foreign companies /Foreign firms slow expansion plans in China, survey finds
  • Bonds /In Depth: Behind the suicide of leading figure in shady fundraising practice

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #17 – Is Michael Saylor and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #17 – Is Michael Saylor, in fact, Satoshi Nakamoto?


Crypto Moves #17 – Is Michael Saylor, in fact, Satoshi Nakamoto?

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The domain bitcoin.org was registered on August 18th, 2008.
  • Just over two months later, on October 31st, an individual or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto unveiled the Bitcoin whitepaper.
  • This was soon followed by the mining of the first Bitcoin block, known as the genesis block, on January 9th, 2009.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Wing Tai Holdings, AEM, iFAST, Grab Holdings , Airports of Thailand, OUE Commercial REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Wing Tai Holdings: Privatisation Chatter
  • AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | iFAST: Stellar Performance of Singapore’s Global Fintech Player
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up
  • What’s Trending: How Airports of Thailand May Benefit From Visa Arrangements
  • Smartkarma Insights: OUE REIT – Well-Heeled Exposure to SG Commercial Property


Wing Tai Holdings: Privatisation Chatter

By David Blennerhassett

  • Following an Staits Times article this week – or perhaps just a coincidence – property play Wing Tai Holdings (WINGT SP) popped 8%. 
  • Yesterday’s close of S$1.47/share, compares to its book value of S$4.24 (as at 31 Dec 2023). Cash on hand is S$684mn against borrowings of ~S$770mn.
  • And the Cheng family has been buying up shares, almost every day since last September. That stake is currently 61.45%. Another Wing Tai Malaysia (WING MK) privatisation in the making?

AEM: Cautious Guidance, but AI Exposure Highlighted and Company Could Benefit from Trump Re-Election

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • AEM (AEM SP) reported FY23 results which showed a decline of 45% in annual revenues and a small loss on the net income line. Guidance is only given for 1H24.
  • Senior management will forego all bonuses, the CFO departs and the old CEO is coming back as a consultant. AEM’s stock closed down 20% after the FY23 results publication.
  • A potential new Trump presidency would push an “America First” agenda likely benefiting Intel and indirectly AEM in a big way.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | iFAST: Stellar Performance of Singapore’s Global Fintech Player

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome iFAST’s Executive Director and Director of Corporate Communications, Mr Jean Paul Wong. 

In the upcoming webinar, Jean will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Alec Tseung.

Alec will also be providing an industry overview, featuring landscape commentary and returns analysis. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

In the spirit of giving back to our community, one of the attendees will also be awarded an Amazon Kindle as part of our exclusive lucky draw. 

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Thursday, 7 March 2024, 19:00 SGT.

About iFAST Corporation 

iFAST Corp (stock code: AIY) is a wealth management Fintech platform, with assets under administration (AUA) of S$19.83 billion as at 31 December 2023. Incorporated in the year 2000 in Singapore and listed on the SGX-Mainboard in December 2014, the Group is also present in Hong Kong, Malaysia, China, and UK. Through the years, the Group has built a well-established Fintech ecosystem connecting its product providers and clients. iFAST Corp holds the requisite licences in the various jurisdictions it operates in to provide a wide range of products and services.

As at end December 2023, the Group offers access to over 21,000 investment products including over 13,000 funds from over 320 fund houses, over 2,400 bonds, stocks and ETFs listed on the Singapore, Hong Kong, US, Malaysia, UK, and China A stock exchanges, as well as services including pension administration solutions, online discretionary portfolio management services, research and investment seminars, Fintech solutions, and investment administration and transaction services.


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – 2024 Set Up

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) recently posted another set of positive results, with another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. We conducted a follow-up call to explore the outlook for 2024. 
  • The company announced both a US$500m Buyback and the potential for improving margins in its deliveries business plus several new initiatives to drive growth in 2024 and beyond. 
  • Grab Financial continue to grow its loan book through lending to drivers and merchants, which should help to improve margins plus its high-margin advertising income is becoming increasingly important.

What’s Trending: How Airports of Thailand May Benefit From Visa Arrangements

By Geoff Howie

  • What you need to know about the SG market #whatstrending feat. #whatstrending is a series addressing some of the most trending questions/topics on the markets for investors.
  • What’s Trending: How Airports of Thailand (AOT) Could Benefit From The Nation Waiving Visa Requirements for Chinese Tourists #2 – Increasing tourist arrivals.

Smartkarma Insights: OUE REIT – Well-Heeled Exposure to SG Commercial Property

By Geoff Howie

Smartkarma Insights: OUE REIT – Well-Heeled Exposure to SG Commercial Property

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Daily Brief Indonesia: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) – A Leaner Green Machine
  • Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


GoTo (GOTO IJ) – A Leaner Green Machine

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo held a public expose at the IDX to update investors on latest developments including the Tokopedia sale but also to outline its key strategies for 2024. 
  • GoTo will start to receive the service fee from Tokopedia from 1st February despite that monitoring is ongoing by the Ministry of Trade although that is now 75% complete.
  • GoTo’s focus will be on affordable products, some new premium offerings, and increasing higher take rate lending products through GoPay, with incoming fees from Tokopedia providing additional funding going forward.  

Medco Energi – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Medco Energi’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its scores for the Environmental, Social and Governance pillars. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


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Daily Brief Australia: Pureprofile Ltd, Godolphin Resources Ltd, Freelancer Ltd, Nickel Industries , Actinogen Medical, Alkane Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Better-than-forecast result, on track to meet guidance
  • Godolphin Resources Limited – Uncovering Precious and Critical Metals in Central NSW
  • Freelancer – Primed for margin expansion
  • Uncovering precious and critical metals in central NSW
  • Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries
  • Actinogen Medical – Pressing forward with Xanamem
  • Pureprofile Ltd – Better-Than-Forecast Result, on Track to Meet Guidance
  • Alkane Resources Limited – On the Cusp of Potential Expansion


Better-than-forecast result, on track to meet guidance

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics, consumer insights and media company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
  • Pureprofile has confirmed, as previously announced on 30 January, that H1 FY24 revenue was $24.0m, with platform revenue contributing $4.4m, a 104% increase on the previous corresponding period (pcp).
  • EBITDA, adjusted for significant and non-cash items, increased 9.6% to $2.37m.

Godolphin Resources Limited – Uncovering Precious and Critical Metals in Central NSW

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Godolphin Resources Limited (ASX:GRL) is an ASX-listed green metals and critical minerals explorer with a focus on central west New South Wales.
  • The company’s projects include the Narraburra rare earths element (REE) project, the Goodrich copper prospect, the Yeoval copper-gold-molybdenum project and the Gundagai gold project.
  • The projects are predominantly located on the Lachlan Fold Belt, a highly prospective province for the discovery of rare earth elements, copper, gold and base metal deposits. 

Freelancer – Primed for margin expansion

By Edison Investment Research

Freelancer’s FY23 results marked a key milestone as the group moved to positive operating EBITDA. Profitability was driven by lower opex than we anticipated as gross marketplace volume (GMV) and revenue declined due to a delayed recovery in the core retail platform and Escrow. Loadshift momentum following its transition to a more value-driven marketplace model, along with Enterprise growth, softened the size of the revenue decline. While Escrow volumes and revenue were down, lead indicators remain positive, with two major e-commerce platforms expected to deploy the Escrow service in H124. Loadshift, Enterprise and the retail platform also provide diverse levers to drive a return to growth, where delivery on a lower cost base will be key to a re-rating.


Uncovering precious and critical metals in central NSW

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Godolphin Resources Limited (ASX:GRL) is an ASX-listed green metals and critical minerals explorer with a focus on central west New South Wales.
  • The company’s projects include the Narraburra rare earths element (REE) project, the Goodrich copper prospect, the Yeoval copper-gold-molybdenum project and the Gundagai gold project.
  • The projects are predominantly located on the Lachlan Fold Belt, a highly prospective province for the discovery of rare earth elements, copper, gold and base metal deposits.

Morning Views Asia: Nickel Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Actinogen Medical – Pressing forward with Xanamem

By Edison Investment Research

Having shown cognitive activity in prior trials, Actinogen began its XanaMIA Phase IIb study of lead candidate Xanamem in patients with cognitive impairment (CI) associated with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The study will assess c 220 biomarker-positive AD patients, with interim results expected in H1 CY25. Actinogen recently reported results from a human positron emission tomography (PET) imaging study, which affirm the drug’s mechanism of action (MoA) in healthy subjects and patients with AD, by showing that Xanamem exhibited high target enzyme occupancy designed to impede cortisol production, as well as favourable safety and tolerability. Our risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) remains essentially unchanged at A$528m.


Pureprofile Ltd – Better-Than-Forecast Result, on Track to Meet Guidance

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics, consumer insights and media company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
  • Pureprofile has confirmed, as previously announced on 30 January, that H1 FY24 revenue was $24.0m, with platform revenue contributing $4.4m, a 104% increase on the previous corresponding period (pcp).
  • EBITDA, adjusted for significant and non-cash items, increased 9.6% to $2.37m. Reported NPAT for the half was $3,888, a $509k turnaround on the pcp. 

Alkane Resources Limited – On the Cusp of Potential Expansion

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) is an ASX-listed gold producer and explorer with a focus on central west New South Wales.
  • The Perth-headquartered company owns and operates the Tomingley gold mine and processing facilities, south-west of Dubbo and the Northern Molong porphyry project in central west NSW which includes the highly prospective Boda and Kaiser deposits.
  • ALK recently announced high-grade results from the Kaiser resource upgrade drilling programme and upgraded the Boda resource to 6.6mn ounces of gold equivalent (AuEq), with 4.4Moz AuEq inferred. 

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Daily Brief United States: Micron Technology, Bitcoin, Mosaic Co/The, Palo Alto Networks, Home Depot Inc, Xperi, Verisk Analytics, NVIDIA Corp, Western Midstream Partners LP, Eventbrite Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On
  • Crypto Moves #17 – Is Michael Saylor, in fact, Satoshi Nakamoto?
  • The Mosaic Company: Stable Demand & Potash Production Increase Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Palo Alto Networks: Is The Increased Demand For Cybersecurity Platforms Expected To Last? – Major Drivers
  • The Home Depot Inc.: Strategic Investment in Pro Ecosystem & Interconnected Experience & Other Developments – Major Drivers
  • XPER: Streaming Execution
  • Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers
  • NVIDIA Corporation: What Are The 3 Biggest Challenges That Could Halt Its Dream Run? – Major Drivers
  • Western Midstream Partners: An Analysis Of The Various Components Of Its Future Outlook! – Major Drivers
  • EB: Delayed Story


Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Competition in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) space is intensifying; Micron shares have rallied after it announced HBM3e mass production; SK Hynix has outperformed since its earnings release.
  • Nvidia’s H200, its most advanced chip for generative AI, leans heavily on HBM3e memory for its increased performance vs. the previous H100 generation. Memory leaders are key for Nvidia’s success.
  • Taiwan’s Nanya Tech appears to be watching HBM competition between Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung from the sidelines; can its shares get back into the game?

Crypto Moves #17 – Is Michael Saylor, in fact, Satoshi Nakamoto?

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The domain bitcoin.org was registered on August 18th, 2008.
  • Just over two months later, on October 31st, an individual or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto unveiled the Bitcoin whitepaper.
  • This was soon followed by the mining of the first Bitcoin block, known as the genesis block, on January 9th, 2009.

The Mosaic Company: Stable Demand & Potash Production Increase Catalyzing Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Mosaic Company’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings highlighted robust phosphate markets and an expected recovery of demand for potash.
  • Mosaic’s CEO, Bruce Bodine, spoke positively about their financial performance in 2023, with reported revenue of $13.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion, along with investing $1.4 billion in the business and returning $1.1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases.
  • One positive takeaway from the call was the strong phosphate market conditions, resulting from tight supply due to China’s fertilizer export restrictions and limited capacity additions in the short term.

Palo Alto Networks: Is The Increased Demand For Cybersecurity Platforms Expected To Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Palo Alto Networks’ Q2 2024 earnings highlight indicate the company’s continued success in executing its profitable growth strategy.
  • The cybersecurity giant achieved significant top-line growth with revenues surging by 19% YoY, the RPO growing by 22%, and billings increasing by 16% YoY. Impressive, non-GAAP operating margins of 28.6% expanded roughly 600 basis points YoY, generating $2.9 billion in adjusted free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

The Home Depot Inc.: Strategic Investment in Pro Ecosystem & Interconnected Experience & Other Developments – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Home Depot’s Q4 2023 earnings highlighted both opportunities realized during the fiscal year and challenges faced, which contributed to a year of moderate performance.
  • Overall, the company witnessed a sales decline by 3% reaching $152.7 billion for the fiscal year 2023 while comp sales dropped by 3.2% and EPS stood at $15.11, revealing a reduction from the previous year’s $16.69.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

XPER: Streaming Execution

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER reported fourth quarter results mostly in line with our estimates, but the progress made on each of its product lines is the highlight of the report
  • XPER has added customers for its TV operating system (“TVOS”), IPTV solution, connected car, and has grown the number of people using its media platform
  • The increase in the number of automobile OEMs electing to use AutoStage is on the rise with XPER’s CEO setting the goal of one video integration win this year

Verisk Analytics: Is Its Growth Outlook Too Optimistic? What Are The Biggest Challenges? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Verisk experienced a successful 2023 with strategic, organizational, and cultural changes, outstanding financial performance, and substantial value creation for clients and shareholders.
  • The company delivered 8.7% organic constant currency revenue growth in 2023, the highest rate since its initial public offering in 2009.
  • They exceeded the expectations set during the Investor Day in March.

NVIDIA Corporation: What Are The 3 Biggest Challenges That Could Halt Its Dream Run? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • NVIDIA Corporation reported a robust Q4 with significant year-on-year growth, marking a strong finish to the fiscal year 2024.
  • The company generated a 265% year-on-year increase in revenue, standing at $22.1 billion, exceeding the projected figure of $20 billion.
  • The fiscal 2024 revenue was $60.9 billion, a 126% increase from the previous year.

Western Midstream Partners: An Analysis Of The Various Components Of Its Future Outlook! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Western Midstream Partners (WES) reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings with a mixed financial result.
  • Nevertheless, the company retains a degree of optimism, particularly when considering certain initiatives and expected future outcomes.
  • In 2023, Western Midstream Partners successfully divested its remaining interest in several non core, non-operated assets worth $790 million.

EB: Delayed Story

By Hamed Khorsand

  • EB reported a decline in the number of tickets and total events held in the fourth quarter as EB continues to adjust its business to the higher price structure.
  • EB reported Q4 revenue of $87.8 million, which was slightly lower than our forecast of $88.3 million. EB experienced a decline in the number of events and tickets sold
  • The disappointment in the quarter was from EB’s management’s commentary where they were realizing several of their paid creators had left the platform after the price increase was announced

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Daily Brief South Korea: Woori Financial Group , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Hyundai Mobis, WCP, Classys and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Woori Financial Placement – While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested
  • Clearing up Confusion About Bringing Back Short Selling in Korea
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)
  • Block Deal Sale of 1.7% Stake of Woori Financial by IMM Private Equity
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 51 Companies in Korea in March 2024
  • Classys (214150 KS): 2023 Sales Beat Guidance to Reach Record High; Stellar Performance to Continue


Woori Financial Placement – While the Overhang Remains, the Deal Would Be Easily Digested

By Clarence Chu

  • IMM PE, via Obis1, is looking to raise US$136m from selling a portion of its stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
  • While the deal doesn’t look particularly well-flagged, the PE has been invested for quite some time now. 
  • Despite the overhang, the deal is a small one to digest at just 1.7% of total shares outstanding, representing 5 days of the firm’s ADV.

Clearing up Confusion About Bringing Back Short Selling in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Government sees foreign investors as key for Corporate Value-Up success, considering reinstating short selling.
  • Planning to expand short selling beyond 350 stocks, but anticipating pushback from retail investors, likely capping additional stocks around 100.
  • The head of the Financial Supervisory Service will formally disclose these plans during the upcoming short selling conference scheduled for March 13th.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Jan and Feb 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in January and February 2024.
  • We provide a list of 22 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in the past two months.
  • Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Shinhan Financial, Hyundai Mobis, and Samick Musical Instruments. All three have outperformed the market. 

Block Deal Sale of 1.7% Stake of Woori Financial by IMM Private Equity

By Douglas Kim

  • IMM Private Equity announced that it is selling a 1.7% stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) in a block deal sale. 
  • The number of shares subject to sale is 12.56 million, or 177.7 billion won to 181.5 billion won.
  • Block deal sale discount range is reasonable, valuation multiples are low, and we expect continued positive capital inflow into stocks related to Corporate Value Up in the next 12 months. 

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 51 Companies in Korea in March 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 51 stocks in Korea in March 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 46 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 51 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in March and could underperform relative to the market.
  • The top five market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold include APR, WCP, DS Dansuk, GI Innovation, and Geolit Energy.

Classys (214150 KS): 2023 Sales Beat Guidance to Reach Record High; Stellar Performance to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Classys (214150 KS) achieved its highest performance ever in 2023. Revenue grew 27% YoY to KRW180 billion, 6% higher than the forecast of KRW170 billion announced early last year.
  • As demand for equipment increased rapidly in major countries, overseas sales last year exceeded KRW100 billion for the first time, and specially in Brazil, annual sales exceeded KRW40 billion.
  • With a positive outlook, Classys is expected to maintain growth trajectory. The company expects 2024 annual revenue of KRW225 billion, up 25% YoY. 

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Daily Brief China: CGN Power, Stella International, Plover Bay Technologies, Pacific Basin Shipping, Agile Property Holdings, S.F. Holding, TYK Medicines and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FXI Rebalance: Three Buys. Three Sells
  • Stella International: A Beneficiary of Reshoring
  • Plover Bay 1523 HK: Solid FY23 Performance and Dividends, Rerating on the Cards
  • Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making
  • Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)
  • Pre-IPO TYK Medicines – Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline


FXI Rebalance: Three Buys. Three Sells

By Brian Freitas


Stella International: A Beneficiary of Reshoring

By David Mudd

  • Vietnam now accounts for more than 50% of production replacing China
  • China production is less than 25% of overall capacity in 2023
  • Reshoring and production of higher end “Athleisure” shoes is increasing margins for Stella International (1836 HK)

Plover Bay 1523 HK: Solid FY23 Performance and Dividends, Rerating on the Cards

By Sameer Taneja

  • Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) reported an 8.5%/ 24YoY increase in revenue/profits (%). Profits increased due to a net margin expansion of 370 bps to 29.8%. 
  • The company had positive news in January when Peplink announced that it had agreed with SpaceX’s Starlink to become an authorized technology provider using Peplink SD-WAN routers.
  • Trading at 11x/10x PE FY23/FY24e, with an 8.2% trailing dividend yield and ~60% ROE, this is another growth/dividend gem worth exploring.

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): An Upturn in the Making

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) has a weaker-than-expected 2H23, but we are glad that its unit cost has come down. Also, FY24F and FY25F should be years of recovery.
  • Current spot rates as indicated by BDI are significantly higher than 1H23 and YTD average, suggesting an upside for realised rates in the rest of this year. 
  • Supply pressure will be alleviated by the issues at Panama and Suez Canals, while China may be a factor in YoY demand improvement. Net gearing of 2% is light. 

Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Agile Group’s ESG as “Adequate”. The company’s Environmental and Social scores are “Adequate”, while Governance is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
  • Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
  • International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines – Survival Risk Is Imminent, with Limited Highlights in the Pipeline

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Among core/key products, TY-302 and TY-2136b have to face fierce competition, with R&D progress lagging behind competing products.TY-9591 for brain metastases from NSCLC could be a breakthrough point for TYK.
  • There would be a long time for the first product to generate revenue, but TYK is cash shortage.So, the survival risk is high. Such companies are less attractive to investors.
  • Valuation of TYK after six rounds of financing was RMB3.08 billion. However, considering the weak sentiment and concerns on pipeline, valuation of TYK after IPO could fall below this level.

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Daily Brief India: Asahi India Glass and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Asahi India Glass Ltd: A.G.E. Analysis


Asahi India Glass Ltd: A.G.E. Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Asahi India Glass (AISG IN) is an integrated glass and window solutions company and engages both in the automotive and the building & construction segments.
  • While capital allocation is not a major concern for the company, the only element that could warrant attention is CWIP as the company has several projects overdue.
  • Margins have been strong yet slightly fluctuating in the last two years. Overall, the balance sheet health looks okay.

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Daily Brief Japan: Kokusai Electric , Sankei Real Estate, Teikoku Sen-i Co., Ltd., Lawson Inc, Golf Digest Online, Japan System Techniques Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • TOPIX “Big April Basket” 2024 Expectations: More High-Conviction Names; Better Trade Ideas
  • Sankei Real Estate (2972) Sponsor Buy Now On And It Isn’t Small (Even if the REIT Is)
  • Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement
  • 4Q Follow-Up -Golf Digest Online | 3319
  • 3Q Follow-Up -Japan System Techniques | 4323


TOPIX “Big April Basket” 2024 Expectations: More High-Conviction Names; Better Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
  • For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
  • Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2024.

Sankei Real Estate (2972) Sponsor Buy Now On And It Isn’t Small (Even if the REIT Is)

By Travis Lundy

  • Last October, I wrote about the plan the sponsor of Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) had to exchange buildings with the REIT to clean it up, then buy more units.
  • Today they announced the completion of the Portfolio Rebalancing Plan started in March 2023. And the plan to buy more units. The assets transferred out were gone at end Jan-2024.
  • Now that’s done, and there are units to buy. Maximum 46,652 units over maximum 220 days.

Hidden Value in Plain Sight: Teikoku’s (3302) Potential Unlock

By Mark Chadwick

  • Teikoku, a stable disaster equipment leader, is undervalued due to excessive cash and cross-holdings.  
  • Regulatory pressure, industry trends, and potential Hulic asset sales create an opportunity to unlock hidden value.
  • Despite fair current pricing, potential share repurchases and improved capital allocation offer up to 40% upside.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

4Q Follow-Up -Golf Digest Online | 3319

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On the surface, FY23/12 consolidated OP -68% YoY, profit ATOP -53%, and FY24/12 initial guidance for a profit ATOP net loss may appear to indicate a challenging earnings environment.
  • However, closer examination reveals steady earnings improvement, and the new MTP through FY26/12 targets recouping major overseas growth investments.
  • The table below shows sequential improvement in the amount change YoY for Group EBITDA, OP and profit ATOP every quarter, with profits at all 9 levels posting YoY gains in the 4Q. 

3Q Follow-Up -Japan System Techniques | 4323

By Sessa Investment Research

  • 3Q Earnings Summary: In cumulative 3Q FY2024/3, Japan System Techniques recorded net sales of ¥18,527 mn (+11.4% YoY), operating profit of ¥1,614 mn (+3.5% YoY), ordinary profit of ¥1,648 mn (+2.7% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereinafter, net profit) of ¥1,099 mn (-5.8% YoY).
  • Cumulative 3Q sales, operating profit, and ordinary profit came in at record highs.
  • Operating profit growth fell short of sales growth owing to planned increases in upfront investments for personnel expansion, education and training expenses, and IT infrastructure enhancements.

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