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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 1st): CNOOC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 1st): CNOOC, Li Auto, Tencent
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 1st): ZTE, China Southern, SMIC, Ganfeng Lithium, Flat Glass Group
  • Northbound Flows (Mar 1st): Midea, Moutai, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group, CATL, Naura Technology
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 1st): TSMC, Wiwynn, Mediatek, Asia Vital, Alchip Tech
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 1st): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Kakao


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 1st): CNOOC, Li Auto, Tencent

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 1st.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for CNOOC, Li Auto, Tencent, China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings.

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 1st): ZTE, China Southern, SMIC, Ganfeng Lithium, Flat Glass Group

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 124.5% as of Mar 1st.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 1.8ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, health care, information technology and offset by utilities, materials.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZTE, China Southern, SMIC, Ganfeng Lithium, Flat Glass Group.

Northbound Flows (Mar 1st): Midea, Moutai, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group, CATL, Naura Technology

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 1st.
  • We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$4,463.8 million, led by information technology, materials, industrials sectors.
  • We highlight flows for Midea, Moutai, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock, CATL, Naura Technology.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 1st): TSMC, Wiwynn, Mediatek, Asia Vital, Alchip Tech

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 1st which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,699.8bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,279mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Wiwynn, Mediatek, Asia Vital, Alchip Tech, Asustek Computer, Umc, Quanta Computer, Chunghwa Telecom, Lite-On Tech.

HK Short Interest Weekly: HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 23rd.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short weekly changes in HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 1st): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Kakao

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of Mar 1st which has an aggregated holding worth USD517.4bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,159mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instistutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Kakao, LG Chem.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Tether and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Tether, Solana co-founder back Oobit’s US$25M Series A round | e27


Tether, Solana co-founder back Oobit’s US$25M Series A round | e27

By e27

  • Singapore-based crypto payment app Oobit has concluded its US$25 million Series A investment round.
  • The backers in this round include the investment arm of USDT parent company Tether, CMCC Global’s Titan Fund, 468 Capital, and Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko.
  • The startup plans to use the funds to expand into Latin America, the UAE, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Australia beyond its primary markets in the European Union and the UK.

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Daily Brief ESG: 3/4 of the Companies Are Giving up the Opportunity to Communicate Their Value to Overseas Investors and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • 3/4 of the Companies Are Giving up the Opportunity to Communicate Their Value to Overseas Investors


3/4 of the Companies Are Giving up the Opportunity to Communicate Their Value to Overseas Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • About half of the prime market companies were able to communicate to investors that they are aware of their cost of capital and are committed to share price conscious management.
  • Half of the companies are reluctant to engage in constructive dialogue with investors, sustainable growth and medium-to-long-term improvement of corporate value, which is the concept of prime market listing criteria.
  • A quarter of prime market listed companies disclosed in English. Since TSE requires disclosure of this information in Corporate Governance Report, disclosure in English of this document becomes more important.

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Daily Brief ECM: Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts
  • Nippon Express Placement – Lukewarm Track Record, Although Buyback Could Lift Share Price
  • Chongho Bridge Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • ECM Weekly (4th Mar 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Mixue, Xtalpi, Bharat InvIT, Renesas, ITC/BAT, Precinct


Trial Holdings IPO: Valuation Thoughts

By Arun George

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$236 million at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550 per share.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in Trial Holdings IPO: The Investment Case
  • In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Trial is attractively valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,550. We would participate in the IPO.

Nippon Express Placement – Lukewarm Track Record, Although Buyback Could Lift Share Price

By Clarence Chu

  • A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$220m from selling their stakes in Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP).
  • Overall, the deal would be a relatively large one to digest at 11 days of Nippon Express’ three month ADV, and 4.8% of the firm’s total shares outstanding.
  • Together with the announcement, the firm has also guided towards a share buyback program which should provide some share price support a month post-deal,  in our view.

Chongho Bridge Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Chongho Bridge (2314866D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC.
  • Chongho Bridge (CB) is an integrated services provider to China’s rural population. It offers rural inclusive credit services, agricultural production services, rural consumer goods and rural clean energy services.  
  • According to F&S, CB is the largest non-traditional financial institution targeting China’s rural market in terms of total loan balance as of FY22 (31st Dec 22).

ECM Weekly (4th Mar 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Mixue, Xtalpi, Bharat InvIT, Renesas, ITC/BAT, Precinct

By Sumeet Singh


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | More Records and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | More Records
  • China’s Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests
  • Trading Up | Mar 3, 2024


Ohayo Japan | More Records

By Mark Chadwick

  • US Stocks end higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising to new records
  • Sakura Internet emerges as latest AI play with high-powered cloud services. Stock up 93% over past month
  • Japanese auto makers see continued strong US auto sales; Nissan potentially to invest $400m in EV truck maker, Fisker

China’s Hydrogen Economy: Re-Igniting Interests

By Osbert Tang, CFA


Trading Up | Mar 3, 2024

By subSPAC

  • The last week saw the return of mega SPAC deals, with a SPAC announcing plans to take an online trading platform public, and the brand management business of an airline going public through a merger with a blank-cheque firm.
  • Also, a SPAC switches merger targets, and Trump’s media firm gets sued by its co-founders. Read on to find out the latest about all things SPACs.  
  • New York-based online brokerage Webull is going public through a merger with SPAC SK Growth Opportunities Corporation in a deal valuing the firm at $7.3 billion. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, China Jinmao Holdings


Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, China Jinmao Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions
  • Korea Value-Up Index: Probable Constituents & Impact of NPS’ US$8.2bn Allocation
  • S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – It’s Not The Trade You Think
  • S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024); Continued Big Buys of SOEs (Getting Boring to Say This)
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still Wide
  • Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Mar 24 Rebal: Disappointing Result but Trade Successful So Far; Bail Out Now!
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024): Foreigners Buy a New Set of Names
  • STTF Index Rebalance: The Widening Emperador Spread
  • What We Need to Know About Speeding Up Delisting in Korea


JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions

By Travis Lundy

  • For years I have tracked investor category flows in Japanese stocks because I find them quite informative. I write about them every so often in an insight series JAPAN FLOW.
  • The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically and that correlates well to One (relatively) Simple Indicator.
  • Foreigners have a lot of ammunition left. But cross-holding unwinds are picking up, and buybacks are too, and dividend reinvestments are smaller than public pension selling. Which way next?

Korea Value-Up Index: Probable Constituents & Impact of NPS’ US$8.2bn Allocation

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that the National Pension Service (NPS) could invest up to KRW 11tn (US$8.2bn) in a new index tracking stocks with low Price to Book ratios.
  • Filtering stocks with market cap higher than US$500m, ADTV of atleast US$1m, div yield of atleast 1.5% and Price to Book less than 1 throws up 94 potential index candidates.
  • Choosing an index of 50 stocks will require managers to buy between 1.7-3.4% of the float on the stocks. Increasing the number of constituents will reduce the impact.

S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal – It’s Not The Trade You Think

By Travis Lundy


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 change for the S&P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the S&P/ASX200 INDEX and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index in March.
  • The largest impact is expected on the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) while flows are large among changes to the S&P/ASX 20 Index and S&P/ASX 100 Index too.
  • There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024); Continued Big Buys of SOEs (Getting Boring to Say This)

By Travis Lundy

  • A share indices were up on the week. HK stock indices were down except for HS Tech. H-shares with A-share pairs were up. 
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$9.1bn in the second post-holiday week after being +HK$20bn in the first week. LOTS of SOEs on the net buying side. Still.
  • SOUTHBOUND continues to buy high-div SOEs. ex-div is still three months away, and given the new KPIs discussed late January by SASAC official, these still seem to be appropriate targets.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. NB 5 weeks in a row. AH premia rebounded slightly. AH Premia are still wide on average. Premia curves should still shift flatter.
  • Two Sessions seems like a good place to make positive public statements but recent speeches from the very top seem more oriented towards “The People Must Endure.”

Quiddity TDIV/​50/​100 Mar 24 Rebal: Disappointing Result but Trade Successful So Far; Bail Out Now!

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the March 2024 index rebal event for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 1st March 2024.
  • The confirmed changes for T50 and T100 were captured in our expectations but an additional change we expected did not materialize which adversely affected our flow expectations for March 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a close look at the breakdown of our final flow expectations for the upcoming Inclusion/Exclusion and Capping events.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Mar 2024): Foreigners Buy a New Set of Names

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 23.5bn of A-shares on strong average activity after RMB +49bn the previous four trading weeks. More efforts by authorities to eliminate selling.
  • No finance names of any kind in the top ten this week after 5/10 the week before. Slight tendencies to trade on reversion.

STTF Index Rebalance: The Widening Emperador Spread

By Brian Freitas


What We Need to Know About Speeding Up Delisting in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea’s authorities aim to streamline delisting and tighten rules for smooth market funds. 71 companies (17 in KOSPI, 54 in KOSDAQ) under review, about 8 trillion won tied up.
  • It’s unclear if this ties directly to the FSS chief’s mention of kicking non-compliant firms of the Value-up Program. Rumors hint at FSS-FSC differences. Impact on Value-up trading seems minimal.
  • Nonetheless, we must explore stocks that may gain from expediting delisting for the 71 companies under review.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.1) – Prioritize Big Pharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.1) – Prioritize Big Pharma, Real Ownership of Pricing Power, Hengrui
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE
  • Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Slow Q4 2023, FY24 Catalysts in the Pipeline
  • CIMC Vehicles (301039 CH): Cheap And Steady Long Term Growth Potential
  • Merck & Co: A Story Of Significant Progress & Execution Across Therapeutic Areas! – Major Drivers
  • Carvana Co: Initiation Of Coverage – AI & 5 Major Growth Drivers! – Financial Forecasts
  • Altria Group: Promotion Of Smoke-Free Products & 5 Other Factors Driving Growth! – Financial Forecasts
  • Ffb Bancorp (FFBB) – Sunday, Dec 3, 2023
  • Insulet Corporation: Is Its Strategy Of Connecting With Healthcare Professionals For Penetration In Niche Markets Working? – Major Drivers
  • H1 FY24 a milestone result


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.1) – Prioritize Big Pharma, Real Ownership of Pricing Power, Hengrui

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In the current challenging environment, investors should prioritize pharmaceutical companies with abundant cash flow and Biotech with diversified funding sources, as their safety margin is much higher.
  • After the “clamor of consumer upgrading” fades away, we will eventually realize that the so-called pricing power has never belonged to anyone or any enterprise, but always to consumers.
  • Hengrui is overvalued. There’re still around RMB5 billion generic drugs yet to enter VBP scope. So, the assumption that all negative effects of VBP have cleared up is not correct.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +22.9% ADR Premium is Near an All-Time High; Long Taiwan Shares vs. Short the ADR
  • UMC: 2.2% Premium; Flipped Positive From a Discount; Likely to Contract
  • ASE: +13.3%; Short the Historically High Spread at the Current Level

Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): Slow Q4 2023, FY24 Catalysts in the Pipeline

By Sameer Taneja

  • Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) reported a slow Q4 2023/FY23, with revenue down 9.5%/8% YoY and profits down 30% YoY for Q4 FY23 but up 4% YoY for FY23. 
  • We are excited by the recent passing of a bill to reduce the tax on stock transactions and a proposed law for lowering the tax on dividends for non-residents.
  • Trading at 19x FY24e with a 5% dividend yield, EBITDA/PAT margins >55%/40%, and 25% of the market cap in cash with an acquisition angle, this stock is a must-watch

CIMC Vehicles (301039 CH): Cheap And Steady Long Term Growth Potential

By Mohshin Aziz

  • CIMC Vehicles Group (301039 CH) (CIMCV) is a leading global manufacturer of semi-trailers and various truck bodies that is the mainstay of heavy ground goods transport  
  • 9M23 earnings surged by 216% and beat consensus, scope for further earnings upgrade as the business and management outlook statement is very positive   
  • Our target price of CNY12.50 (+31% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 15x – a 10% discount against the industry leader Caterpillar 

Merck & Co: A Story Of Significant Progress & Execution Across Therapeutic Areas! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q4 earnings, Merck & Co.
  • reported a strong financial performance, underpinned by a robust demand for their innovative portfolio, including Keytruda, Welireg, and Gardasil, among others.
  • The company has embarked on various collaborations further bolstering its product pipeline with a promising line of innovations.

Carvana Co: Initiation Of Coverage – AI & 5 Major Growth Drivers! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on e-commerce player, Carvana.
  • The company’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings included an optimistic forecast regarding the company’s economic performance.
  • The company’s fiscal year GPU (Gross Profit per Unit) augmented by nearly $1,000, setting a fresh record and exceeding their previous best in 2021.

Altria Group: Promotion Of Smoke-Free Products & 5 Other Factors Driving Growth! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Altria Group’s recent earnings call has raised important topics worth considering for investors.
  • The company, known for its strong position in the tobacco industry, showed a clear intent to diversify into smoke-free product categories, such as heated tobacco, oral tobacco, and e-vapor.
  • These steps are seen as a strategic move to cushion the company from declining cigarette volumes and broaden its consumer base, thereby improving its long-term growth prospects.

Ffb Bancorp (FFBB) – Sunday, Dec 3, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • FFB Bancorp is expanding its reach across California by offering remote banking services
  • The bank has a niche market in payment processing as an acquiring bank, generating additional income
  • CEO Steve Miller, with a diverse background in banking, is leading the company towards a larger market share role in California and beyond

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Insulet Corporation: Is Its Strategy Of Connecting With Healthcare Professionals For Penetration In Niche Markets Working? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Insulet Corporation reported strong Q4 2023 results, marking its eighth straight year of 20-plus percent revenue growth.
  • The company’s automated insulin delivery system, Omnipod 5, played a significant role in its financial success as it generated $1 billion in revenue in 2023.
  • The achievement of approximately 425,000 global customers using the Omnipod platform represented a growth of around 25% from the previous year, including almost 250,000 using the Omnipod 5.

H1 FY24 a milestone result

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
  • CCV has delivered a solid H1 FY24 with revenue growth of 34% to $191.5m (in line with RaaS $192.5) and EBITDA growth of 13% to $32.6m (15% ahead of RaaS $28.4) and NPAT of $9.8m (7% ahead of RaaS $9.2m).
  • The gross loan book has grown 15% to $294m, which is all the more impressive as the business transitions away from SACC products due to regulatory change, more than offset by growth in all other products, domestically and internationally.

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Daily Brief Macro: Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire.. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..
  • Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?
  • How to Trade the YOLO and FOMO Market
  • Are You Ready To Be A Contrarian Cigar Butt Investor?
  • Nowcasting Nearly Half of Global GDP
  • Healthy Private Sector Balance Sheets Could Limit Scope for Fed Policy Easing
  • Global Macro Research: Waiting on Words (And Data)


Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

By Andreas Steno

  • The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.
  • Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.
  • In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.
  • The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.
  • The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.

How to Trade the YOLO and FOMO Market

By Cam Hui

  • A YOLO and FOMO mania has gripped stock market psychology and it’s unclear when the mindset will reverse.  Numerous warnings are appearing and the market can correct at any time.
  • We are long-term bullish on stocks, but remain cautious near term.
  • Despite our cautious short-term outlook, traders are advised against taking a short position until some tangible signs of a bearish reversal appear.

Are You Ready To Be A Contrarian Cigar Butt Investor?

By Cam Hui

  • We review Warren Buffett’s shareholder letter and his pivot from deep value to QGARP investing.
  • We offered two case studies to compare and contrast his approach: 1) Berkshire’s holdings in Japan, which was successful; and 2) China, a deep value opportunity that he ignored.
  • We are agnostic in our opinion between the two approaches and believe both can offer alpha, but on different time horizons.

Nowcasting Nearly Half of Global GDP

By Thomas Lam

  • My hybrid nowcasting framework tracks the inflation-adjusted or real GDP growth rates of US, Euro Area and Japan
  • My nowcasts for the individual G3 economies are prospectively diverging at the beginning of 2024
  • But in aggregate, my nowcast suggests that G3 GDP growth is potentially tracking softer through the first-half of 2024 on average 

Healthy Private Sector Balance Sheets Could Limit Scope for Fed Policy Easing

By Said Desaque

  • In contrast to previous Fed tightening cycles, there are fewer signs of private sector balance sheet stress, thereby potentially sowing the seeds for significant stimulus once monetary policy is eased.
  • US households have delevered, while the prospective onset of lower mortgage rates will boost housing affordability. Companies took advantage of extremely favourable borrowing conditions during the pandemic to refinance debt. 
  • The current real Fed policy rate appears high, but aggressive nominal rate cuts are not in the offing and interest rate futures are now reflecting this baseline outlook.

Global Macro Research: Waiting on Words (And Data)

By At Any Rate

  • Chair Powell set to deliver semiannual testimony in Congress, February employment data on Friday
  • ECB decision on Thursday with potential impact on US rates and currencies
  • Revision of rates forecast to reflect Fed easing expectations and QT process, potential for rates to decline if February data does not repeat January strength

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Australia: Flight Centre Travel, Cash Converters Intl and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning
  • Cash Converters International Ltd – H1 FY24 a Milestone Result
  • H1 FY24 a milestone result


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 change for the S&P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the S&P/ASX200 INDEX and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&P/ASX300 Index in March.
  • The largest impact is expected on the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) while flows are large among changes to the S&P/ASX 20 Index and S&P/ASX 100 Index too.
  • There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.

Cash Converters International Ltd – H1 FY24 a Milestone Result

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
  • CCV has delivered a solid H1 FY24 with revenue growth of 34% to $191.5m (in line with RaaS $192.5) and EBITDA growth of 13% to $32.6m (15% ahead of RaaS $28.4) and NPAT of $9.8m (7% ahead of RaaS $9.2m).
  • The gross loan book has grown 15% to $294m, which is all the more impressive as the business transitions away from SACC products due to regulatory change, more than offset by growth in all other products, domestically and internationally. 

H1 FY24 a milestone result

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
  • CCV has delivered a solid H1 FY24 with revenue growth of 34% to $191.5m (in line with RaaS $192.5) and EBITDA growth of 13% to $32.6m (15% ahead of RaaS $28.4) and NPAT of $9.8m (7% ahead of RaaS $9.2m).
  • The gross loan book has grown 15% to $294m, which is all the more impressive as the business transitions away from SACC products due to regulatory change, more than offset by growth in all other products, domestically and internationally.

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