Smartkarma Daily Briefs

JSR Corp (4185 JP)’s shares rose 4.8% due to a Nikkan Kogyo article that states that JIC will start the tender within the month due to concluding negotiations with SAMR.
Caution is warranted as JSR has not provided a customary timeline update, no confirmatory disclosure from SAMR and JSR’s response to SUNY RF’s claims are yet to be filed.
Based on current information, there are five possible tender scenarios. In the worst case, the downside risk on a deal break should be muted due to the market re-rating.

Genex (GNX AU): J-Power’s Indicative Offer

Back in July 2022, Aussie renewable energy player Genex (GNX AU) announced an A$0.23/share NBIO from Skip Enterprises and Stonepeak, subsequently bumped to A$0.25/share, and confirmatory due diligence provided.
Negotiations ceased in December that year. As of today, Scott Farquhar’s Skip Enterprises continues to hold a 19.9% stake in Genex.
This morning, Genex announced an A$0.275/share NBIO from Electric Power Development (9513 JP) (J-Power), by way of a Scheme. A concurrent off-market A$0.27/share is in place.

TDCX (TDCX US)’s $7.20/Share Short-Form Merger

On the 2 January, TDCX (TDCX US), a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, announced it had received a preliminary non-binding proposal from Laurent Junique to be acquired at $6.60/ADS.
On the 1st March, TDCX entered in a definitive agreement by way of a short form merger at US$7.20/ADS, a 48% premium to undisturbed.
As Laurent Junique holds 98.4% of the voting power, there is no shareholder vote on the merger. This is done. The Offer should close in the 2Q24.

May Lockup Release & April SSF Listing May Lead to Weird Trading Dynamics for Ecopro Materials

By Sanghyun Park

May 17th, all eyes on EcoPro Materials for a buzzed-about lockup release. BRV Capital holds 24.5% stake, 17M shares. Lockup ends May 16th; they’re free to sell off without constraints.
Apparently, they’re eager to cash out, with a profit margin around 30 times and 7 years invested. Many at Yeouido bet they’ll sell out once the lockup’s over.
We might start building a shorting position with futures targeting this lockup release from April 22nd. This could stir up some weird backwardation, which could give us another trading opportunity.

Ecopro Materials: Potential Selling by Second Largest Shareholder Post End of Lockup Period in May

By Douglas Kim

We discuss the strong likelihood of potential selling of EcoPro Materials by BRV Capital Management (the second largest shareholder of Ecopro Materials with a 24.7% stake) in May 2024.
BRV Capital Management’s stake in Ecopro Materials is currently worth 3.1 trillion won. In the past seven years, BRV Capital Management has invested about 93 billion won in Ecopro Materials.
On 4 March, Ecopro Materials announced it has entered into a contract to supply precursor to a U.S. auto company. There is some local speculation that this could be Tesla.

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.
If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip’s stake.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme’s completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.

Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

Vinda International (3331 HK) has announced the pre-condition for Sukanto Tanoto’s HK$23.50 voluntary offer is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched on or before 11 March.
The offeror has received irrevocables from Essity (ESSITYB SS) and Mr Li, representing 72.62% of outstanding shares, which satisfies the 50% minimum acceptance condition.
Including irrevocables, the offeror currently represents 80.31% of outstanding shares. The offeror intends to exercise compulsory acquisition rights. The tight 0.4% gross spread reflects a done deal.

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Titan Could Replace IOCL

By Brian Freitas

With the review period complete, Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) should replace Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) in the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index at the close on 27 March.
Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 13.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 4.2bn.
The flows on the stocks are not very large but there will be same side and offsetting flows from other index trackers at the same time.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory
China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop
[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) TP Change]: Strong Games Pipelines Offering More Potentials
Portfolio Update: February 2024
BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) – Pain Points Behind the High Growth
Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth
[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$20.4)TP Change]: Will Live for the Moment Consumption Persist in 2024?
Director filings and buyback momentum return
China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): A Laggard that Sets to Catch Up
ITMG IJ: Q4 2023 Inline, Deep Value, 45% of the Mkt Cash and ~11% Dividend Yield on Spot

Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory

By Douglas O’Laughlin

Investing in semiconductors can be pretty simple if you let it be.
At a high level, I believe you want to invest in the secular at a decent price or invest in places where there are unwarranted dislocations.
Sometimes the entire ecosystem says one thing and the stocks say another. Usually, the ecosystem is right.

China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop

By Ming Lu

Alibaba closed four more supermarkets at the end of February.
Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao.
Li Auto’s deliveries increased by 62% YoY in the first two months of 2024.

[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) TP Change]: Strong Games Pipelines Offering More Potentials

NetEase reported C4Q23 top line, GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (4.8%), (16%) and (9.0%) vs. our estimates, and (3.6%), (12%) and (6.8%) vs. consensus， mainly due to..
The positive, however, is the acceleration of launch of <Naraka Mobile> by 1-2 quarters. Our estimate of the gross billing remains the same;
We remain optimistic about the upcoming pipeline, and we raise our TP to US$122. Our new TP implies 15.4X PE, which is 12% above current price.

Portfolio Update: February 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

Recently, a friend of mine asked me why I own positions in Markel and Brookfield, as they do not align with my typical investment style of small niche companies trading at attractive free cash flow yields.
I consider both companies as alternatives to index funds, benefiting from the expertise of two exceptional capital allocators, Tom Gayner and Bruce Flatt, at no additional cost.
Over time, if my investment process proves itself as sound, the positions in Markel and Brookfield should naturally decrease in size.

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) – Pain Points Behind the High Growth

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Although people acknowledged BeiGene’s performance, it still makes us uneasy about a long-standing question: When will BeiGene be profitable?With current cost structure, there’s at least two years left until breakeven.
BeiGene’s internationalization only proves decent increase in revenue, but it doesn’t yet verify its profitability.SG&A expense ratio completely deviates from the normal state of Biotech with over US$2 billion sales.
If BeiGene indeed has a plan to turn loss into profits, besides maintaining a high growth rate in sales, reasonable optimization in cost and expenses is the most basic “sincerity”.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

By Daniel Hellberg

Adjusting for impact of LNY timing, January numbers still seem firm
Headline February / LNY 2024 traffic growth also appears solid
Our thesis remains that tourism recovery takes longer, strongest in H124

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$20.4)TP Change]: Will Live for the Moment Consumption Persist in 2024?

Vipshop reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and GAAP net profit in-line, 6.3% and 7.0% vs. our estimate, and 4.5%, 20.5%, and 23.9%, vs. consensus, respectively;
We expect the two themes of “live for the moment” consumption and consumption downgrade to persist in 2024. The former drives apparel spending, while the latter drives consumers to Vipshop
We maintain BUY and raise the TP to US$ 20.4, implying 7.7x CY24 non-GAAP P/E, and 4.9x CY24 EV/Earnings.

Director filings and buyback momentum return

By Geoff Howie

Director filings and buyback momentum return Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engg) led the buyback consideration tally, repurchasing 500,000 shares at an average price of S$3.97 each on Feb 29.
On Feb 26, LHT Holdings managing director Yap Mui Kee acquired 61,000 shares at an average price of S$1.05 per share.

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): A Laggard that Sets to Catch Up

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) has an impressive 2024 CNY with the volume and revenue of its tourist attractions increased by 46% to 123% YoY.
Relative to 2019 CNY, most businesses have fully recovered. 1H23 earnings is the highest since 1H20 and the market may have underestimated 2H23, providing upside surprise potential.
The share price is still some 30% below the peak in late-2021 when earnings have yet to recover. Also, its net cash now equals 19% of the share price.

ITMG IJ: Q4 2023 Inline, Deep Value, 45% of the Mkt Cash and ~11% Dividend Yield on Spot

By Sameer Taneja

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported its Q4 2023/FY23 numbers with revenues down 46%/35% YoY and profits down 58%/69% YoY on declining coal prices (113 USD/ton Vs 192 USD/ton) .
We expect spot coal prices to remain range-bound between 130-150 USD/ton, resulting in company profits ranging between 350-500 mn USD (4x-6x PE range) with dividend yield ranging from 11%-15%.
The company also has a cash buffer of 850 million USD, roughly 45% of the current market capitalization.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios

Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios

By Mads Eberhardt

Last week was notably positive for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which both experienced impressive gains.
Bitcoin’s price has surged to $65,000, marking an increase of over 25%, while Ethereum has increased to $3,510, up by approximately 15%.
This puts Bitcoin close to its highest ever price, just below $69,000.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Macro: February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo & Grab, BFIN’s Rising, and Astra Intl’s Oversold
ECB Watch: A scope for a decent dovish surprise
Energy Cable #59: More fuel for energy bulls?
ISM Manufacturing – the Ugliest Macro Indicator for Stocks!
Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update
Monday Macro – a deep dive into stocks and bonds for the long run
Mining Monthly: February Edition
Switzerland CPI Inflation 1.2% y-o-y (consensus 1.1%) in Feb-24
Bahrain CPI Inflation 0.6% m-o-m in Jan-24

February Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

By Rikki Malik

A monthly review at how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo & Grab, BFIN’s Rising, and Astra Intl’s Oversold

By Angus Mackintosh

The Past week saw insights on GoTo, Grab Holdings (GRAB US),Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ), Matahari Department Store, BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Astra International (ASII IJ).
There was also a macro insight on the Thai Economy and further insights on Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP), Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB), and UNOAsia in the Philippines.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.

ECB Watch: A scope for a decent dovish surprise

By Andreas Steno

The hopes of a March cut are long gone, but the ECB meeting will be interesting to watch nonetheless.
The ECB has been dovishly surprised on right about every single measurable parameter since the December meeting, which will likely make its impact at the March meeting.
HICP assumptions for Q1 averaged at 2.9% with the actual prints in January and February coming in at 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.

Energy Cable #59: More fuel for energy bulls?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Take aways: Another green week for natural gas. Bullish demand/supply outlook for crude. Seasonality will now be working in favor of crude. Israel Hamas-Ceasefire a little less impactful for crude now.
Before we get to the OPEC supply cuts and crude, we would like to address our natural gas position from a couple of weeks ago.
Our timing has been very fortunate with the position, as the market realized that we were trading too low. As we predicted, the low prices act as a natural constraint on supply as seen most recently by EQT Corp.

ISM Manufacturing – the Ugliest Macro Indicator for Stocks!

By Jeroen Blokland

Understanding the ISM Manufacturing Index has been a tricky affair in recent months. Based on regional PMI data, the ISM (48.7) was anticipated to breach the 50 mark (50.7).
The gap between the current 10-year US Treasury yield and the ISM Manufacturing Index is huge!
In addition, the latest ISM numbers suggest a 26% downside for the S&P 500 Index. Yikes!

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

By The Commodity Report

CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.
The investment bank expects ⅔ of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks.
CTA’s have meanwhile built a decent short position in agriculturals, and flows should remain negative there.

Monday Macro – a deep dive into stocks and bonds for the long run

By Adventurous Investor

This week, I’m going to try and combine my three interests: 1. working out what the heck markets might do next,
2. figuring out how economic growth rates impact stock market returns (surely there must be some relationship or are they entirely unrelated), and
3. digging into the economic history record books to see what’s worked in the past in investment terms.

Mining Monthly: February Edition

By Atrium Research

Gold held flat in February, continuing a long period of consolidation, and most other metals were down modestly.
The precious metal equities further sold off in February, compounding the losses in January, highlighting to the market this industry is still out of favour.
We had several significant updates from companies within our coverage.

Switzerland CPI Inflation 1.2% y-o-y (consensus 1.1%) in Feb-24

By Heteronomics AI

Switzerland’s CPI inflation in February 2024 slowed by a tenth to 1.2% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectations of 1.1%.
The inflation rate continues to be below the average for most of 2023.
The current inflation rate is significantly below the Swiss National Bank’s target.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bahrain CPI Inflation 0.6% m-o-m in Jan-24

By Heteronomics AI

Bahrain’s CPI inflation rate saw a substantial rise of 0.6% in January 2024, representing the most significant growth since June 2023.
The inflation rate for January 2024 surpassed the one-year average by 0.53 percentage points.
This indicates a deviation from the usual inflationary behaviour.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Australia: Genex Power Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Genex (GNX AU): J-Power’s Indicative Offer
Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

Genex (GNX AU): J-Power’s Indicative Offer

Back in July 2022, Aussie renewable energy player Genex (GNX AU) announced an A$0.23/share NBIO from Skip Enterprises and Stonepeak, subsequently bumped to A$0.25/share, and confirmatory due diligence provided.
Negotiations ceased in December that year. As of today, Scott Farquhar’s Skip Enterprises continues to hold a 19.9% stake in Genex.
This morning, Genex announced an A$0.275/share NBIO from Electric Power Development (9513 JP) (J-Power), by way of a Scheme. A concurrent off-market A$0.27/share is in place.

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.
If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip’s stake.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme’s completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), NetEase Inc, Vinda International, BeiGene , Hang Seng Index, Trip.com, Vipshop Holdings, China Travel International Investment Hong Kong, China Construction Bank H and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop
[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) TP Change]: Strong Games Pipelines Offering More Potentials
Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied
BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) – Pain Points Behind the High Growth
EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Turning Point
Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth
[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$20.4)TP Change]: Will Live for the Moment Consumption Persist in 2024?
China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): A Laggard that Sets to Catch Up
Vinda (3331 HK): That’s A Wrap As Pre-Cons Done
CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

China Consumption Weekly (4 Mar 2024): Alibaba, Sun Art, Li Auto, Nayuki, NetEase, Vipshop

By Ming Lu

Alibaba closed four more supermarkets at the end of February.
Alibaba is moving retailers from the discount app back to Taobao.
Li Auto’s deliveries increased by 62% YoY in the first two months of 2024.

[NetEase, Inc. (NTES US, BUY, TP US$122) TP Change]: Strong Games Pipelines Offering More Potentials

NetEase reported C4Q23 top line, GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (4.8%), (16%) and (9.0%) vs. our estimates, and (3.6%), (12%) and (6.8%) vs. consensus， mainly due to..
The positive, however, is the acceleration of launch of <Naraka Mobile> by 1-2 quarters. Our estimate of the gross billing remains the same;
We remain optimistic about the upcoming pipeline, and we raise our TP to US$122. Our new TP implies 15.4X PE, which is 12% above current price.

Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

Vinda International (3331 HK) has announced the pre-condition for Sukanto Tanoto’s HK$23.50 voluntary offer is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched on or before 11 March.
The offeror has received irrevocables from Essity (ESSITYB SS) and Mr Li, representing 72.62% of outstanding shares, which satisfies the 50% minimum acceptance condition.
Including irrevocables, the offeror currently represents 80.31% of outstanding shares. The offeror intends to exercise compulsory acquisition rights. The tight 0.4% gross spread reflects a done deal.

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) – Pain Points Behind the High Growth

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Although people acknowledged BeiGene’s performance, it still makes us uneasy about a long-standing question: When will BeiGene be profitable?With current cost structure, there’s at least two years left until breakeven.
BeiGene’s internationalization only proves decent increase in revenue, but it doesn’t yet verify its profitability.SG&A expense ratio completely deviates from the normal state of Biotech with over US$2 billion sales.
If BeiGene indeed has a plan to turn loss into profits, besides maintaining a high growth rate in sales, reasonable optimization in cost and expenses is the most basic “sincerity”.

EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Turning Point

By Nico Rosti

The Hang Seng Index closed the month of February up, printing a +6.63% return, after months of uninterrupted downtrend.
The big question at this point is: has the index reached the turning point that many have been waiting for?
In this insight we will try to analyze what the possible short-term trend could be for the index after the recent trend reversal.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

By Daniel Hellberg

Adjusting for impact of LNY timing, January numbers still seem firm
Headline February / LNY 2024 traffic growth also appears solid
Our thesis remains that tourism recovery takes longer, strongest in H124

[Vipshop (VIPS US, BUY, TP US$20.4)TP Change]: Will Live for the Moment Consumption Persist in 2024?

Vipshop reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and GAAP net profit in-line, 6.3% and 7.0% vs. our estimate, and 4.5%, 20.5%, and 23.9%, vs. consensus, respectively;
We expect the two themes of “live for the moment” consumption and consumption downgrade to persist in 2024. The former drives apparel spending, while the latter drives consumers to Vipshop
We maintain BUY and raise the TP to US$ 20.4, implying 7.7x CY24 non-GAAP P/E, and 4.9x CY24 EV/Earnings.

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): A Laggard that Sets to Catch Up

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) has an impressive 2024 CNY with the volume and revenue of its tourist attractions increased by 46% to 123% YoY.
Relative to 2019 CNY, most businesses have fully recovered. 1H23 earnings is the highest since 1H20 and the market may have underestimated 2H23, providing upside surprise potential.
The share price is still some 30% below the peak in late-2021 when earnings have yet to recover. Also, its net cash now equals 19% of the share price.

Vinda (3331 HK): That’s A Wrap As Pre-Cons Done

On the 15 December 2023, the Tanoto family emerged with a HK$23.50 pre-conditional Offer for Vinda (3331 HK). PRC regulatory approval to one side, this Offer was a done deal.
Those regulatory approvals have now been satisfied. The Composite Doc will be dispatched on or before the 11th March, at which time the Offer will be open for acceptances.
With a 50% minimum acceptance condition and irrevocables of 72.624% (plus Tanoto’s 7.69% direct stake), this should turn unconditional on or before the 20th March

CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

By Daniel Tabbush

The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.
CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.
Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief Singapore: UOL Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Director filings and buyback momentum return

Director filings and buyback momentum return

By Geoff Howie

Director filings and buyback momentum return Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engg) led the buyback consideration tally, repurchasing 500,000 shares at an average price of S$3.97 each on Feb 29.
On Feb 26, LHT Holdings managing director Yap Mui Kee acquired 61,000 shares at an average price of S$1.05 per share.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Hynix, EcoPro Materials and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory
May Lockup Release & April SSF Listing May Lead to Weird Trading Dynamics for Ecopro Materials
Ecopro Materials: Potential Selling by Second Largest Shareholder Post End of Lockup Period in May

Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory

By Douglas O’Laughlin

Investing in semiconductors can be pretty simple if you let it be.
At a high level, I believe you want to invest in the secular at a decent price or invest in places where there are unwarranted dislocations.
Sometimes the entire ecosystem says one thing and the stocks say another. Usually, the ecosystem is right.

May Lockup Release & April SSF Listing May Lead to Weird Trading Dynamics for Ecopro Materials

By Sanghyun Park

May 17th, all eyes on EcoPro Materials for a buzzed-about lockup release. BRV Capital holds 24.5% stake, 17M shares. Lockup ends May 16th; they’re free to sell off without constraints.
Apparently, they’re eager to cash out, with a profit margin around 30 times and 7 years invested. Many at Yeouido bet they’ll sell out once the lockup’s over.
We might start building a shorting position with futures targeting this lockup release from April 22nd. This could stir up some weird backwardation, which could give us another trading opportunity.

Ecopro Materials: Potential Selling by Second Largest Shareholder Post End of Lockup Period in May

By Douglas Kim

We discuss the strong likelihood of potential selling of EcoPro Materials by BRV Capital Management (the second largest shareholder of Ecopro Materials with a 24.7% stake) in May 2024.
BRV Capital Management’s stake in Ecopro Materials is currently worth 3.1 trillion won. In the past seven years, BRV Capital Management has invested about 93 billion won in Ecopro Materials.
On 4 March, Ecopro Materials announced it has entered into a contract to supply precursor to a U.S. auto company. There is some local speculation that this could be Tesla.

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Mar 05

Daily Brief United States: Reddit , TDCX, Markel Corp, VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA, Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Gold and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis
TDCX (TDCX US)’s $7.20/Share Short-Form Merger
Portfolio Update: February 2024
Reddit IPO: The Right Time To Go Public At A Reasonable Valuation
Gold Miners: Refuge From the YOLO and FOMO Frenzy
Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update
Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis: $1B+ Revenue and Profitable Company in 2024
Crypto Crisp: Two Scenarios
Mining Monthly: February Edition

Reddit IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

Reddit plans to price its IPO between $31 to $34 a share, which would suggest equity value of US$6.0 billion to US$6.5 billion on a fully diluted basis.
Our base case valuation of Reddit is implied market cap of US$7.9 billion or implied price of US$41.2 per share.
Given the moderate upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a Positive view of the Reddit IPO.

TDCX (TDCX US)’s $7.20/Share Short-Form Merger