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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over


Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

By Joe Jasper

  • The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
  • In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
  • Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs — buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Bitcoin Soars and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Bitcoin Soars, Then Falls


Ohayo Japan | Bitcoin Soars, Then Falls

By Mark Chadwick

  • Bitcoin hit a high of $69,202 hitting an all time high. It then reversed course and fell to $63,400
  • US stocks closed down by around 1% on Tuesday dragged down by weakness in tech stocks; Apple shares -2.8% on China iphone slump
  • Tesla shares were ~4% lower after production halted at Giga factory in Berlin. Tesla also seeing 16% drop in auto shipments in China. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia


Morning Views Asia: Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Block Deal Sale of 2.2% of Kakao Pay by Alipay and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Block Deal Sale of 2.2% of Kakao Pay by Alipay
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Mar 2024)
  • Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal
  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Deletion & Capping Changes
  • Locals Driving Corporate Reforms and 10 Korean Companies Recently Announcing Share Cancellations
  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Close Deletions
  • Feb Rebalance – JSE Auction Analytics (SA Upweighted in ACWI and EM)
  • Bondalti/Ercros: Fair Offer
  • Tuhu Car Lock-Up Expiry – Would Need Some Selling to Improve Liquidity when US$1.5bn Comes Unlocked
  • ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry – A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On


Block Deal Sale of 2.2% of Kakao Pay by Alipay

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 5 March, it was reported that Alipay will sell a 2.2% stake (2.95 million shares) in Kakaopay (377300 KS) in a block deal sale.
  • A key component of this block deal sale is that there will be a lock up period of 90 days post the sale date.
  • We would avoid this block deal sale. There is a high probability of Kakao Pay’s share price falling below the block deal price of 38,380 won after 90 days. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Mar 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • There were no Section Transfers announced in January or February so currently there are no live TOPIX Inclusion events but there are some pre-event names to be monitored closely.
  • The upcoming TOPIX flows in end-April 2024 will be more complicated than the other quarterly rebalances as there will be more flows due to the annual liquidity factor review.

Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

By Arun George

  • I have received several questions from readers on Alcoa (AA US)’s non-binding proposal for Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. 
  • The questions primarily concerned Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. 
  • CITIC Resources’ lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Deletion & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas


Locals Driving Corporate Reforms and 10 Korean Companies Recently Announcing Share Cancellations

By Douglas Kim

  • In a recent discussion with a client, one of the questions that was raised was regarding the impact the local investors are having on the corporate governance reforms in Korea.
  • The number of local investors in the Korean stock market has jumped in the past few years from 5.3 million in 2017 to 14.4 million in 2022.
  • All in all, I think Korea is about 3-5 years behind Japan in various corporate governance reforms. So it has a lot of catching up to do.

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Close Deletions

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, there are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion zone and could be removed from the index at the March rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a one-way trade of A$97m.
  • There are 9 stocks with over A$5m to trade from passive trackers but the impact on the stocks is not very high.

Feb Rebalance – JSE Auction Analytics (SA Upweighted in ACWI and EM)

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Indices were rebalanced in the closing auction last week Thursday.

  • Turnover on the JSE for the day was R25.6bn, R12.9bn traded in the closing auction (50%).

  • Turnover at the November rebalance was R40.6bn. 


Bondalti/Ercros: Fair Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Ercros (ECR SM), a venerable Spanish chemical company has received a €3.6/share, cum dividend, offer from Bondalti. The premium is 40.6%, implied equity €329.17 million and implied EV €421 million.
  • The offer represents 6x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, typical mid-cycle multiple for commodity chemicals, 12.9x Fwd P/E. The offer price accounts for an improving H2. The shares suffer from low liquidity.
  • Therefore the top shareholders will be glad to cash in. How long does the Spanish government take to authorise FDI will be the primary concern. Gross spread is 4.7%. Long.

Tuhu Car Lock-Up Expiry – Would Need Some Selling to Improve Liquidity when US$1.5bn Comes Unlocked

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (9690 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 26th Sept 2023 after raising US$151m. The IPO had been a 100% primary offering.
  • Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • Trading with a very small float of 1.8%, in its upcoming six-month lockup expiry, >90% of Tuhu’s pre-IPO investors, cornerstones and management combined stakes will come off six-month lockup expiry.

ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry – A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

By Sumeet Singh

  • Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
  • ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

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Daily Brief ECM: Ola Electric Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Increasing Competition and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Ola Electric Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Increasing Competition, but It’s Still the Leader
  • AAMB Holdings Placement – Despite the Overhang, Momentum Has Been Decent
  • Zomato Placement – Momentum Is Very Strong, Somewhat Well Flagged
  • Xunfei Healthcare Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Ola Electric Pre-IPO Peer Comparison – Increasing Competition, but It’s Still the Leader

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ola Electric is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
  • In our previous note we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

AAMB Holdings Placement – Despite the Overhang, Momentum Has Been Decent

By Clarence Chu

  • ANZ Funds is looking to raise around US$242m from selling a portion of its stake in AMMB Holdings (AMM MK).
  • Having written down its carrying value earlier, we would argue that the deal now is somewhat well flagged, with ANZ attempting to record some gains on investment.
  • That being said, there is an overhang and the deal would be a large one to digest at 111 days of AMBank’s three month ADV.

Zomato Placement – Momentum Is Very Strong, Somewhat Well Flagged

By Sumeet Singh

  • AntFin is looking to raise around US$350m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN).
  • Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Ant just came out of lockup from the previous selldown a few days ago.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Xunfei Healthcare Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Xunfei Healthcare Technology (XHT HK) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Huatai International, GF Capital, and CCB International.
  • Xunfei Healthcare Technology (Xunfei), a iFlytek (Shenzhen-listed) spin-off, primarily provides solutions covering the full healthcare service cycle, with products and services mainly catered towards major stakeholders in the healthcare industry.
  • Backed by its healthcare AI solutions matrix, the firm ranked first in the healthcare AI industry in terms of revenue in China in 2022, according to Frost & Sullivan (F&S).

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Decoding Tata Motors Demerger: The Way Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Decoding Tata Motors Demerger: The Way Ahead
  • Sea Ltd: No Nearer to Stable Profitability Than Before
  • Sea Ltd (SE US) – Scalability Winning Battles
  • Japanese Bigger Cap Banks – Exit from BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Gathers Steam
  • Yihai International (1579 HK):  Beneficiary Of Haidilao’s Adoption Of Franchising Model
  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP) FY23: Resilient Earnings Despite Margin Pressure, FY24 Flattish
  • Vinfast Auto Ltd (VFS) – Tuesday, Dec 5, 2023
  • TLNE: Nuclear Shareholder Value
  • Primary Health Properties – Stability with income growth
  • H1 EBITDA loss halves, +ive EBITDA forecast for 2H


Decoding Tata Motors Demerger: The Way Ahead

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Tata Motors restructures, separating passenger and commercial vehicle businesses into distinct entities to unlock value in electric vehicles and Jaguar Land Rover unit.
  • Streamlines operations, enhances shareholder value, and capitalizes on growth opportunities in passenger and commercial vehicle sectors.
  • Offers investors specialized entities, unlocking hidden value, showcasing proactive adaptation to market changes, and positioning for sustainable growth in the automotive industry.

Sea Ltd: No Nearer to Stable Profitability Than Before

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Sea (SE US) has completed a full cycle of growth followed by a phase of profitability improvements/cost-cutting.
  • Although substantial cost reductions have been implemented, these efforts have mainly focused on fixed costs.
  • With marketing efficiency unchanged and significant improvements in gross margin difficult, the company appears no closer to achieving stable profitability than it initially was.

Sea Ltd (SE US) – Scalability Winning Battles

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sea Ltd (SE US) released 4Q2023 and FY2023 results with a full-year net profit but another loss in 4Q but QoQ improvements for e-commerce and digital financial services. 
  • E-Commerce core market growth rates where impressive, with strong growth momentum with Brazil seeing large profitability gains, whilst overall Shopee is gaining share with the additional benefits from greater scale.  
  • Digital Financial Services saw a significant uptick in its loan book and profitability, whilst management pointed toward 2H2024 profitability for Shopee. Management is pointing towards 2024 being another profitable year. 

Japanese Bigger Cap Banks – Exit from BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Gathers Steam

By Victor Galliano

  • The current “higher for longer” interest rates in the US and other developed markets adds to the Bank of Japan potentially ending its negative interest rate policy
  • Domestically, news reports suggest that the BoJ’s 2% inflation target is increasingly likely to be met in the short term, which further drives the potential normalization of interest rate policy
  • Growing expectation of the BoJ’s negative interest rate policy exit adds upside to Japanese bank shares, especially those geared into higher domestic interest rates; we like Resona, Mizuho and Concordia

Yihai International (1579 HK):  Beneficiary Of Haidilao’s Adoption Of Franchising Model

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Yesterday, Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK), the largest hotpot chain in China, announced that the company will introduce franchise model as a new way to support growth. 
  • Haidilao’s move into franchising should directly benefit Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK), the affiliate company that supplies hotpot condiments to Haidilao. 
  • Yihai is trading at an inexpensive 12x 2024 PE compared to a historical average of 32x since listing.

Sheng Siong (SSG SP) FY23: Resilient Earnings Despite Margin Pressure, FY24 Flattish

By Sameer Taneja

  • Despite margin pressure, Sheng Siong (SSG SP) delivered resilient earnings for FY23. Revenue was up 2.3% YoY, and profits were up 0.3% YoY. 
  • The company guided it had opened two additional stores at the start of 2024 (2023 end: 69), and six more locations were up for tender in 2024. 
  • The stock trades at 17x FY23, with a 4% dividend yield and 15% of the market cap in cash. Margin pressure due to inflation will be a headwind in FY24. 

Vinfast Auto Ltd (VFS) – Tuesday, Dec 5, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • VinFast is a fast-growing electric vehicle manufacturer based in Vietnam, founded in 2017 by Vingroup and billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong
  • The company has plans for global expansion and aims to have vehicles in 50 markets by the end of 2024
  • VinFast has a $16 billion market cap and recently completed a SPAC merger that raised $239 million, but its financial ties to Vingroup raise concerns about its independence

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


TLNE: Nuclear Shareholder Value

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TLNE announced the sale of Cumulus Data for a valuation higher than we were expecting and includes a long-term power purchasing agreement
  • TLNE’s management has also mentioned an ongoing sales process for TLNE’s assets in Texas, which could generate additional value.
  • TLNE sold Cumulus Data for $650 million to Amazon Web Services (“AWS”). TLNE sold the assets the Company had situated adjacent to Susquehanna nuclear power plant

Primary Health Properties – Stability with income growth

By Edison Investment Research

The key feature of Primary Health Properties’ (PHP’s) 2023 results was the further acceleration in rental uplifts, rising at the fastest pace for 15 years. This is driving organic earnings growth to fully cover progressive dividends, which are now in the 28th year of unbroken increase.


H1 EBITDA loss halves, +ive EBITDA forecast for 2H

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
  • WRK has reported a H1 FY24 adjusted EBITDA loss of $0.53m, half that of H1 FY23 and in line with RaaS estimates.
  • The result benefitted from both operating leverage (43% revenue growth against a 6% increase in operating costs) and some reallocation of employee costs to capitalised product development.

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Daily Brief Macro: 3 Take-Aways from Li Qiang’s Speech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • 3 Take-Aways from Li Qiang’s Speech
  • Positioning Watch – Are the unpopular bets back in town?
  • India Economics: Strong Growth Comes with Strong Caveats
  • UK Politics: Betting On Red
  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 26-Feb-24 to 01-Mar-24
  • Philippines CPI Inflation 3.4% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Feb-24
  • Thailand CPI Inflation -0.77% y-o-y (consensus -0.8%) in Feb-24


3 Take-Aways from Li Qiang’s Speech

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Welcome to this week’s Great Game where we turn our attention to China.
  • The Communist Party is annual National People’s Congress where Premier Li Qiang (Xi’s right hand man) delivered a very noteworthy speech on the Central Committee’s financial and political plans.
  • Watching a speech from a Chinese politician is a very different beast from watching top US politicians address the masses.

Positioning Watch – Are the unpopular bets back in town?

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems safe to say that markets are now more concerned about liquidity/growth than rates to reiterate ourselves, as equity markets have not attributed the U-turn in rates expectations any value whatsoever.
  • As the growth and liquidity outlook still looks decent for the weeks/months ahead, we keep our long risk asset bias.
  • The rates outlook looks to have a bigger impact in FX and especially the carry-heavy side of this asset class, and with the market likely going to up-hawk expectations even further if inflation picks up momentum, it could be time for a revival of the USD – FX volatility has at least started to pick up a bit of momentum (bullish USD).

India Economics: Strong Growth Comes with Strong Caveats

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • India grew by a strong 8.4% in 4Q23, but growth in industrial value-add came in slower. Bullish claims of strong growth momentum thus need to be qualified. 
  • The primary driver of growth remained public sector-led investments, with private consumption and capital spending still playing largely second fiddle. 
  • Slowdowns were also observed across all major sectors, with a contraction in the employment-heavy agricultural industry a potential drag on broader rural demand. 

UK Politics: Betting On Red

By Alastair Newton

  • The 6 March budget is expected to be highly political, primarily aiming to strengthen Conservative ‘core’ support.
  • The budget strategy is also intended to counter the threat from Reform UK, instead of appealing to a wider electorate.
  • There is an underlying assumption that an incoming Labour government would have to deal with the fiscal consequences of this budget.

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 26-Feb-24 to 01-Mar-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • Put-Call Ratio back at 1.30. Put-buying interest returns as Nifty50 scales new All-time-Highs
  • Nifty50 Vol curve starts the week in Backwardation & moves into Contango as Weekly IVs dip. BankNifty Vol curve showing a kinked shape.
  • Vol Curve has unwound the skew/smile compression built up over prior weeks

Philippines CPI Inflation 3.4% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Feb-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Philippines’ CPI inflation exceeded market expectations, reaching 3.4% year-on-year in February 2024.
  • This is the highest level since December 2023.
  • The inflation rate breaks a downtrend, rising towards the core rate, indicating positive news.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Thailand CPI Inflation -0.77% y-o-y (consensus -0.8%) in Feb-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Thailand’s CPI inflation in February 2024 declined by 0.77% year-on-year, which was the least negative outcome since November 2023 and close to the consensus forecast.
  • Core inflation slowed slightly further to 0.43% year-on-year, contrary to expectations.
  • This sustained dovish pressure on monetary policy.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Australia: Abacus Storage King, Alumina Ltd, IDP Education, WRKR, EML Payments Limited and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Deletion & Capping Changes
  • Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal
  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Close Deletions
  • H1 EBITDA loss halves, +ive EBITDA forecast for 2H
  • EML Payments – Looking to a brighter future
  • Wrkr Limited – H1 EBITDA Loss Halves, +ive EBITDA Forecast for 2H


MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Deletion & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas


Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

By Arun George

  • I have received several questions from readers on Alcoa (AA US)’s non-binding proposal for Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. 
  • The questions primarily concerned Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. 
  • CITIC Resources’ lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Close Deletions

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, there are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion zone and could be removed from the index at the March rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a one-way trade of A$97m.
  • There are 9 stocks with over A$5m to trade from passive trackers but the impact on the stocks is not very high.

H1 EBITDA loss halves, +ive EBITDA forecast for 2H

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
  • WRK has reported a H1 FY24 adjusted EBITDA loss of $0.53m, half that of H1 FY23 and in line with RaaS estimates.
  • The result benefitted from both operating leverage (43% revenue growth against a 6% increase in operating costs) and some reallocation of employee costs to capitalised product development.

EML Payments – Looking to a brighter future

By Edison Investment Research

EML Payments reported good growth in revenue and underlying EBITDA in H124, mainly due to the benefit of higher interest income. Management’s focus has been on the underperforming PCSIL General Purpose Reloadable (GPR) business, now in liquidation, resulting in the cost cutting programme shifting to H224. With that obstacle removed, management can now shift its sights to growing the remaining Gifting and GPR businesses and rightsizing the cost base.


Wrkr Limited – H1 EBITDA Loss Halves, +ive EBITDA Forecast for 2H

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
  • WRK has reported a H1 FY24 adjusted EBITDA loss of $0.53m, half that of H1 FY23 and in line with RaaS estimates. The result benefitted from both operating leverage (43% revenue growth against a 6% increase in operating costs) and some reallocation of employee costs to capitalised product development.
  • We forecast positive H2 FY24 EBITDA on the back of continued operating leverage, and in particular significant Hong Kong implementation fees (estimated at $1.4m), higher float interest and continued cost control.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Sea , Sheng Siong and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd: No Nearer to Stable Profitability Than Before
  • Sea Ltd (SE US) – Scalability Winning Battles
  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP) FY23: Resilient Earnings Despite Margin Pressure, FY24 Flattish


Sea Ltd: No Nearer to Stable Profitability Than Before

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Sea (SE US) has completed a full cycle of growth followed by a phase of profitability improvements/cost-cutting.
  • Although substantial cost reductions have been implemented, these efforts have mainly focused on fixed costs.
  • With marketing efficiency unchanged and significant improvements in gross margin difficult, the company appears no closer to achieving stable profitability than it initially was.

Sea Ltd (SE US) – Scalability Winning Battles

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sea Ltd (SE US) released 4Q2023 and FY2023 results with a full-year net profit but another loss in 4Q but QoQ improvements for e-commerce and digital financial services. 
  • E-Commerce core market growth rates where impressive, with strong growth momentum with Brazil seeing large profitability gains, whilst overall Shopee is gaining share with the additional benefits from greater scale.  
  • Digital Financial Services saw a significant uptick in its loan book and profitability, whilst management pointed toward 2H2024 profitability for Shopee. Management is pointing towards 2024 being another profitable year. 

Sheng Siong (SSG SP) FY23: Resilient Earnings Despite Margin Pressure, FY24 Flattish

By Sameer Taneja

  • Despite margin pressure, Sheng Siong (SSG SP) delivered resilient earnings for FY23. Revenue was up 2.3% YoY, and profits were up 0.3% YoY. 
  • The company guided it had opened two additional stores at the start of 2024 (2023 end: 69), and six more locations were up for tender in 2024. 
  • The stock trades at 17x FY23, with a 4% dividend yield and 15% of the market cap in cash. Margin pressure due to inflation will be a headwind in FY24. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: Kakaopay , Celltrion Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Block Deal Sale of 2.2% of Kakao Pay by Alipay
  • Locals Driving Corporate Reforms and 10 Korean Companies Recently Announcing Share Cancellations


Block Deal Sale of 2.2% of Kakao Pay by Alipay

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 5 March, it was reported that Alipay will sell a 2.2% stake (2.95 million shares) in Kakaopay (377300 KS) in a block deal sale.
  • A key component of this block deal sale is that there will be a lock up period of 90 days post the sale date.
  • We would avoid this block deal sale. There is a high probability of Kakao Pay’s share price falling below the block deal price of 38,380 won after 90 days. 

Locals Driving Corporate Reforms and 10 Korean Companies Recently Announcing Share Cancellations

By Douglas Kim

  • In a recent discussion with a client, one of the questions that was raised was regarding the impact the local investors are having on the corporate governance reforms in Korea.
  • The number of local investors in the Korean stock market has jumped in the past few years from 5.3 million in 2017 to 14.4 million in 2022.
  • All in all, I think Korea is about 3-5 years behind Japan in various corporate governance reforms. So it has a lot of catching up to do.

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