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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Japan Airlines, Angel Robotics , Forward Air and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Airlines – ANA’s Margin Outperformance Poses Big Questions for JAL
  • Angel Robotics: IPO Preview
  • Forward Air (FWRD US | BUY | TP:USD59.5): A Toad, but There Is a Prince Inside


Japanese Airlines – ANA’s Margin Outperformance Poses Big Questions for JAL

By Neil Glynn

  • We refresh estimates for ANA and JAL, and highlight we think the strength of FY24 makes it difficult for ANA to avoid an earnings decline in FY25.
  • However, ANA’s superior recovery to JAL poses bigger questions for JAL as it revisits its medium term plan on 21 March
  • Our deep dive on margin management at each carrier suggests a revenue problem rather than a cost problem at JAL; but without revenue improvements, it will have to cut costs

Angel Robotics: IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Angel Robotics is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in March. The IPO price range is from 11,000 won to 15,000 won. 
  • The IPO offering amount is from 17.6 billion won to 24 billion won. At the IPO price range, the company’s valuation ranges from 154 billion won to 210 billion won. 
  • Angel Robotics is likely to be compared to Doosan Robotics and Rainbow Robotics. 

Forward Air (FWRD US | BUY | TP:USD59.5): A Toad, but There Is a Prince Inside

By Mohshin Aziz

  • A highly unpopular acquisition driving investors and sell-side analysts up the wall. Forward Air is OVERSOLD on almost all technical indicators and valuations are the lowest in its history  
  • Our analysis suggests it is not all that bad, the business will still be profitable and generate positive free cash flow 
  • Our fair value of USD59.50 (+97% UPSIDE) is derived by 2x current Book Value. A potential double-bagger, will be rewarding for the patient investors     

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Hua Hong Semiconductor, ARM Holdings, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Sakura internet, Wiwynn Corp, Redbubble Ltd, Globalwafers, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hua Hong Semiconductor: AI, EV and New Energy Opportunities at a Leading Chinese Foundry
  • ARM Holdings (ARM US): Lock up Expiry on 12 March
  • Emerging Markets Ex-China: Looking Back… And Forward
  • Sakura Internet (3778) | Blossoming in the Cloud?
  • Wiwynn GDRs Early Look – US$1.3bn Taiwan GDR Would Be Easily Digested
  • Dear COVID Darling
  • GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) – Wednesday, Dec 6, 2023


Hua Hong Semiconductor: AI, EV and New Energy Opportunities at a Leading Chinese Foundry

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Hua Hong Seminconductor’s Chief Financial Officer, Daniel Yu-Cheng Wang. 

In the upcoming webinar, Daniel will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Eric Wen. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 12 March 2024, 16:00 SGT.

About Hua Hong Semiconductor

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells semiconductor products. The company provides embedded non-volatile memory, standard logic and mixed-signal, radio frequency, power management integrated circuits, power discrete, and automotive solutions. It also offers foundry services; and design services comprising standard and customized IP development, full-custom layout design, and customer-specific integrated solutions, as well as design support and tape out services. In addition, the company provides multi-project wafer services; mask making services; and backend services, such as in-house testing, backside processing and dicing, and backend turnkey services, as well as assembly and testing services. 

Further, it engages in real estate development. Its products are used in consumer electronics, communications, computing, industrial, and automotive markets in the People’s Republic of China, North America, Europe, Japan, and other Asian countries. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People’s Republic of China. Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited is a subsidiary of Shanghai Alliance Investment Ltd.


ARM Holdings (ARM US): Lock up Expiry on 12 March

By Arun George

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s 180-day lock-up period on its 89.75% ARM Holdings (ARM US) shareholding expires on 12 March. SoftBank’s stake is worth US$124 billion.
  • SoftBank will likely monetise its ARM stake using the Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) playbook. This playbook uses prepaid forward contracts to raise capital with eventual settlement through shares. 
  • ARM is currently trading 2.6x its IPO price on AI-driven hype. ARM trades at a premium multiple to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), despite forecasted lower growth and margin.  

Emerging Markets Ex-China: Looking Back… And Forward

By Brian Freitas


Sakura Internet (3778) | Blossoming in the Cloud?

By Mark Chadwick

  • Sakura Internet, a Japanese cloud provider, has seen a significant surge in stock price and market capitalization due to entry into AI cloud services.
  • The company plans to invest in NVIDIA H100 GPUs for AI servers, expecting substantial demand but with uncertain revenue and profitability projections.
  • Risks include concentrated ownership, lack of analyst coverage, potential shareholder pressure, and competition from larger cloud providers like AWS with advanced AI computing capabilities.

Wiwynn GDRs Early Look – US$1.3bn Taiwan GDR Would Be Easily Digested

By Clarence Chu

  • Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT) is looking to raise up to US1.3bn in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • Wiwynn recently reported its board’s resolution to issue up to 17m new shares in the form of GDRs for purchasing overseas raw materials, debt repayment, investing overseas and others.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.

Dear COVID Darling

By The Mikro Kap

  • Redbubble was a bubble. On the wings of pandemic mania, the stock price increased 13 times from March 2020 to January 2021.
  • Reaching a 1.9B market cap. Today, the situation looks quite different.
  • The stock is down 93% from its highs of 7 AUD and currently sits at 0.

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.

By Patrick Liao

  • The sales in January 2024 were the lowest during the period of 2022-2024, indicating a likely downtrend for the first quarter of 2024.
  • Demand is expected to be flat or slightly increase in 2Q24F for GlobalWafers, which is encouraging.
  • The market for 12″ raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) – Wednesday, Dec 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • HPE is a $21.5 billion provider of networking, servers, and storage products, with a focus on higher quality businesses and services
  • The company generates cash from operations and divestitures, presenting an attractive investment opportunity with potential for upside to $29/share or a 35% IRR through 10/2025
  • HPE’s recent Security Analysts Meeting emphasized its business segments, particularly highlighting opportunities in the Compute segment for AI inferencing needs and Proliant Gen 11 servers

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A, UMP Healthcare, Pharmaessentia Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows
  • UMP Medical (722 HK): Slow H124, Deep Value, Execution Remains Key
  • Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT): Readying for Next Growth Phase with Besremi’s Continued Traction


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.

UMP Medical (722 HK): Slow H124, Deep Value, Execution Remains Key

By Sameer Taneja

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) delivered a slow start to FY24, with revenues up 2.3% YoY and profits down 63% YoY, due to sluggish demand in Hong Kong. 
  • The company cut dividend for H1 FY24 by 25% to 1.3 HKD cents/share. Net cash on the balance sheet remained healthy at 265 mn HKD representing 64% of market capitalization.
  • The company is implementing stringent cost control and we believe that a slow turnaround and a 9-10% dividend yield is very probable at these levels. 

Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT): Readying for Next Growth Phase with Besremi’s Continued Traction

By Tina Banerjee

  • Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) starts 2024 on a strong note, with revenue for first two months rising 103% YoY to NT$1.1B. The company is expected to become profitable this year.
  • China approval of Besremi, which is expected this year, can be a major near-term catalyst. Indication expansion of Besremi in the U.S. is anticipated in next year.
  • Pharmaessentia’s revenue is forecast to grow at an average rate of 55% per annum over the next two years. The company’s pipeline is progressing, thereby enhancing visibility beyond Besremi.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Japan Airlines, Angel Robotics , Forward Air and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japanese Airlines – ANA’s Margin Outperformance Poses Big Questions for JAL
  • Angel Robotics: IPO Preview
  • Forward Air (FWRD US | BUY | TP:USD59.5): A Toad, but There Is a Prince Inside


Japanese Airlines – ANA’s Margin Outperformance Poses Big Questions for JAL

By Neil Glynn

  • We refresh estimates for ANA and JAL, and highlight we think the strength of FY24 makes it difficult for ANA to avoid an earnings decline in FY25.
  • However, ANA’s superior recovery to JAL poses bigger questions for JAL as it revisits its medium term plan on 21 March
  • Our deep dive on margin management at each carrier suggests a revenue problem rather than a cost problem at JAL; but without revenue improvements, it will have to cut costs

Angel Robotics: IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Angel Robotics is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in March. The IPO price range is from 11,000 won to 15,000 won. 
  • The IPO offering amount is from 17.6 billion won to 24 billion won. At the IPO price range, the company’s valuation ranges from 154 billion won to 210 billion won. 
  • Angel Robotics is likely to be compared to Doosan Robotics and Rainbow Robotics. 

Forward Air (FWRD US | BUY | TP:USD59.5): A Toad, but There Is a Prince Inside

By Mohshin Aziz

  • A highly unpopular acquisition driving investors and sell-side analysts up the wall. Forward Air is OVERSOLD on almost all technical indicators and valuations are the lowest in its history  
  • Our analysis suggests it is not all that bad, the business will still be profitable and generate positive free cash flow 
  • Our fair value of USD59.50 (+97% UPSIDE) is derived by 2x current Book Value. A potential double-bagger, will be rewarding for the patient investors     

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Financials: New World Development, Shinhan Financial, Bajaj Finance Ltd, UBS Group , Eastern Bankshares , Greentown China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)
  • Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Recent Selldowns Have Held up Since, Momentum Is Strong as Well
  • Trouble in Paradise | India Credit Landscape & Wrath of the Regulator
  • Block Deal Sale of About 400 Billion Won of Shinhan Financial by EQT Partners
  • UBS CEO: Surprise Comeback, Credit Suisse, and Winning
  • Eastern Bankshares Inc (EBC) – Wednesday, Dec 6, 2023
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Greentown China


StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Despite the lifting of the “spicy” property cooling measures last week, New World Development (17 HK) has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. 
  • Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Recent Selldowns Have Held up Since, Momentum Is Strong as Well

By Clarence Chu

  • EQT (EQT SS) , via Supreme, is looking to raise US$311m from selling its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).
  • Momentum on the stock has been strong over the past few months, and the recent selldowns in the stock have held up by the end of the week.
  • The share sale here will be a cleanup one, and a small one to digest at just 5.3 days of ADV. 

Trouble in Paradise | India Credit Landscape & Wrath of the Regulator

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • India’s Credit Landscape has changed and is facing structural and regulatory challenges.
  • The Indian regulator (RBI), particularly in its oversight of underwriting practices and the behavior of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), is commendably proactive, positioning it ahead of the curve.
  • We expect more such steps in other parts of the credit funnel. The recent crack down along with the stock underperformance is here to stay and possibility intensify. 

Block Deal Sale of About 400 Billion Won of Shinhan Financial by EQT Partners

By Douglas Kim

  • EQT Partners announced that it is selling all of its remaining shares in Shinhan Financial for about 400 billion won in a block deal sale.
  • The block deal sale price range is expected to be 43,776 won to 44,688 won, representing 2% to 4% discount to the closing price on 6 March (45,600 won).
  • We would take the deal. The block deal discount is reasonable and Shinhan Financial continues to have attractive valuations and dividend yield despite recent share price appreciation. 

UBS CEO: Surprise Comeback, Credit Suisse, and Winning

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • Former professional football player turned banker/trader
  • Helped build up Swiss franc capital market operation for Merrill Lynch
  • Witnessed UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse in 2023, highlighting lack of sustainable business model for Credit Suisse

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Eastern Bankshares Inc (EBC) – Wednesday, Dec 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Merger with Cambridge Bancorp seen as strategic move to bolster asset management business
  • Market initially reacted negatively to merger announcement
  • Both EBC and CATC stocks have started to bounce back, reflecting overall recovery of bank stocks; Eastern Bankshares remains significant player in industry with strong asset base

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Greentown China

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Fast Retailing, Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial, Nameson Holdings, Cie Financiere Richemont , Vera Bradley, Wheat and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – 2 ADDs, 2 DELETEs Maybe, but Rebals Tougher, and Fastie+TEL Are the FUN
  • Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial – An IPO Is a Must, but Success Is Not Guaranteed
  • Some Updates #2
  • Cie Financiere Richemont Ag (CFRUY) – Wednesday, Dec 6, 2023
  • VRA: 4Q Preview: Setting Up the Vision; Reiterate Buy Rating, $10 PT
  • Lower prices and uncertain demand: navigating choppy waves of wheat markets in 2024


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – 2 ADDs, 2 DELETEs Maybe, but Rebals Tougher, and Fastie+TEL Are the FUN

By Travis Lundy

  • Now that the March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is decided, we have a model for the Sep 2024 Review. As previously discussed on Smartkarma, actual name changes get tough now. 
  • As of now, there should be two ADDs and two DELETEs. They might not occur. But there are two other situations which create interesting dynamics around big names. 
  • The dynamics of Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron promise more fun than the actual name changes in September 2024. It impacts how you trade Nikkei vs TOPIX and tech internals.

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial – An IPO Is a Must, but Success Is Not Guaranteed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Auntea Jenny is positioned in the same league as Guming. Both have similar business model/strategy. However, in terms of the number of stores/revenue scale/profitability, Auntea Jenny lags behind its peers.
  • China’s freshly-made beverage industry has developed to the stage of capitalization. Auntea Jenny has to obtain more funds to strengthen barriers, improve supply chain, accelerate expansion.The real competition just begins.
  • Pre-IPO valuation of Auntea Jenny was already RMB5.1 billion, but the market seems not optimistic about the franchising model. Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than that of Guming/MIXUE.  

Some Updates #2

By Turtles all the way down

  • First a new holding, Nameson Holdings (HKG:1982). A vertically integrated knitwear and fabrics manufacturer with most of its production base in Vietnam and some of it still in China.
  • They expanded to Myanmar, which did not work out so well, so they had to take significant write-downs and restructuring costs recently of 243 million HK$.
  • This somewhat obscures their true earnings power.

Cie Financiere Richemont Ag (CFRUY) – Wednesday, Dec 6, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Richemont is a Swiss company known for owning luxury brands like Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels
  • The Jewellery segment has seen impressive growth with sales increasing from $5.2bn to $14bn
  • The segment boasts significant operating margins of around 35% and has room for further growth in the luxury Jewellery market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


VRA: 4Q Preview: Setting Up the Vision; Reiterate Buy Rating, $10 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $10 price target and projections for Vera Bradley with the company reporting 4QFY24 (January) results before the open next Wednesday.
  • We look to the 4Q call for management to provide even more detail on the material changes to the company, as CEO Jackie Ardrey and her team begin to take full control of the shopping and product experience.
  • We believe Vera Bradley has become increasingly more relevant and appealing to a wider customer base, and the company is positioned, with a cash rich and materially leaner balance sheet, to fund potential higher-margin growth drivers going forward.

Lower prices and uncertain demand: navigating choppy waves of wheat markets in 2024

By Commodities Focus

  • Global wheat prices have been defying expectations and have continued on a downward trend since the start of 2024
  • Russia is expected to have a high wheat production of over 90 million tons in 2024 due to favorable growing conditions
  • Ukrainian wheat exports are expected to improve with better logistics and an estimated production of nearly 20.5 million tons in the 2024-25 season

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 1st): Samsung SDI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 1st): Samsung SDI, Hyundai Mipo Doc, Hotel Shilla, Amorepacific


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 1st): Samsung SDI, Hyundai Mipo Doc, Hotel Shilla, Amorepacific

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Mar 1st which has an aggregated short interest worth USD7.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Samsung SDI, Hyundai Mipo Doc, Hotel Shilla, Amorepacific Cor.

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Daily Brief ECM: Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Recent Selldowns Have Held up Since and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Recent Selldowns Have Held up Since, Momentum Is Strong as Well
  • ARM Holdings (ARM US): Lock up Expiry on 12 March
  • Angel Robotics: IPO Preview
  • Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial – An IPO Is a Must, but Success Is Not Guaranteed


Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Recent Selldowns Have Held up Since, Momentum Is Strong as Well

By Clarence Chu

  • EQT (EQT SS) , via Supreme, is looking to raise US$311m from selling its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).
  • Momentum on the stock has been strong over the past few months, and the recent selldowns in the stock have held up by the end of the week.
  • The share sale here will be a cleanup one, and a small one to digest at just 5.3 days of ADV. 

ARM Holdings (ARM US): Lock up Expiry on 12 March

By Arun George

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s 180-day lock-up period on its 89.75% ARM Holdings (ARM US) shareholding expires on 12 March. SoftBank’s stake is worth US$124 billion.
  • SoftBank will likely monetise its ARM stake using the Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) playbook. This playbook uses prepaid forward contracts to raise capital with eventual settlement through shares. 
  • ARM is currently trading 2.6x its IPO price on AI-driven hype. ARM trades at a premium multiple to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), despite forecasted lower growth and margin.  

Angel Robotics: IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Angel Robotics is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in March. The IPO price range is from 11,000 won to 15,000 won. 
  • The IPO offering amount is from 17.6 billion won to 24 billion won. At the IPO price range, the company’s valuation ranges from 154 billion won to 210 billion won. 
  • Angel Robotics is likely to be compared to Doosan Robotics and Rainbow Robotics. 

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial – An IPO Is a Must, but Success Is Not Guaranteed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Auntea Jenny is positioned in the same league as Guming. Both have similar business model/strategy. However, in terms of the number of stores/revenue scale/profitability, Auntea Jenny lags behind its peers.
  • China’s freshly-made beverage industry has developed to the stage of capitalization. Auntea Jenny has to obtain more funds to strengthen barriers, improve supply chain, accelerate expansion.The real competition just begins.
  • Pre-IPO valuation of Auntea Jenny was already RMB5.1 billion, but the market seems not optimistic about the franchising model. Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than that of Guming/MIXUE.  

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January
  • Ohayo Japan | US Shares End Higher; Powell Hints at Rate Cuts
  • Druckenmiller’s Gold Miner Bet
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/700 HK/BABA/SHEIN/PDD/3690 HK/BIDU
  • E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV/ 1810 HK/LI/NIO/ZLAB/BGNE/MNSO
  • Renewable Energy And “Grade”


Global Semi Sales Decline 2.3% MoM In January

By William Keating

  • It’s the first MoM decline in semi sales since February 2023, but it’s a seasonal thing & YoY comparisons continue to grow stronger. 
  • Forecasting 10% YoY growth in 2024 semiconductor sales, in line with TSMC’s outlook
  • $1 trillion in annual semiconductor sales will likely happen in 2032 based on a 7.7% CAGR over the coming decade. 

Ohayo Japan | US Shares End Higher; Powell Hints at Rate Cuts

By Mark Chadwick

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirms potential interest rate cuts, pending sustained evidence of inflation slowdown.
  • ADP National Employment Report shows private sector job growth in February, surpassing January but missing Wall Street predictions
  • Japanese firms enact substantial job cuts despite stock market surge, reflecting strategic restructuring amid rising wages.

Druckenmiller’s Gold Miner Bet

By Michael Fritzell

  • Stan Druckenmiller just bought shares in Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining.

  • He thinks gold serves as a store of value, but only over the long run. It’s a hedge against any devaluation of the US Dollar.

  • He also seems to think that gold prices should go up in a scenario of lower interest rates, higher inflation rates or a combination of both.


[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES/700 HK/BABA/SHEIN/PDD/3690 HK/BIDU

By Ying Pan

  • NTES/700 HK : NPPA has released the February approvals for domestic game codes, with <Black Myth: Wukong> and <Naraka Mobile> receiving approval. (+)
  • NTES: NetEase has established a new overseas studio, led by former <Call of Duty> designer.(+)
  • BABA/BIDU/700 HK: Alibaba Cloud announces steep discounts on hardware products (+/-/-)

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

By Michael Causton

  • E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. 
  • By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.
  • As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/XPEV/ 1810 HK/LI/NIO/ZLAB/BGNE/MNSO

By Eric Wen

  • LI/XPEV/NIO: Li, Xpeng and GAC AION announced new price actions(+/+/-)
  • ZLAB: Zai Lab’s revenue growth in 4Q23 is weak, and loss narrowing is limited (-)
  • 1810 HK: Qualcomm exhibited a number of client-side LLM products at MWC Barcelona, covering mobile phones, PCs and communications(+)

Renewable Energy And “Grade”

By Massif Capital Research

  • Renewables as extractive industries: Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are extractive industries that depend on the “grade” of the natural resource to achieve sustainability, a three-dimensional concept that includes economics, social acceptance, and environmental considerations.
  • The problem of low-grade resources: Deploying renewables in areas where the resource grade is too low imposes macro-level costs on the electrical system and reduces its economic and environmental sustainability through the inefficient deployment of limited resources.
  • The problem of high-grade resources: Deploying too many renewables in areas where the resource grade is high causes value deflation, lowers the revenue of the projects, and impairs micro-level sustainability.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – 2 ADDs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – 2 ADDs, 2 DELETEs Maybe, but Rebals Tougher, and Fastie+TEL Are the FUN
  • StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)
  • Interpreting Kumho Petro Chemical’s Unexpected Move to Cancel Treasury Shares
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows
  • Kumho Petrochemical – A Significant Shares Cancellation Announcement
  • Emerging Markets Ex-China: Looking Back… And Forward
  • Block Deal Sale of About 400 Billion Won of Shinhan Financial by EQT Partners
  • Azure Minerals (AZS AU): Scheme Vote on 8 April
  • Wiwynn GDRs Early Look – US$1.3bn Taiwan GDR Would Be Easily Digested


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – 2 ADDs, 2 DELETEs Maybe, but Rebals Tougher, and Fastie+TEL Are the FUN

By Travis Lundy

  • Now that the March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is decided, we have a model for the Sep 2024 Review. As previously discussed on Smartkarma, actual name changes get tough now. 
  • As of now, there should be two ADDs and two DELETEs. They might not occur. But there are two other situations which create interesting dynamics around big names. 
  • The dynamics of Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron promise more fun than the actual name changes in September 2024. It impacts how you trade Nikkei vs TOPIX and tech internals.

StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Despite the lifting of the “spicy” property cooling measures last week, New World Development (17 HK) has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. 
  • Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Interpreting Kumho Petro Chemical’s Unexpected Move to Cancel Treasury Shares

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kumho Petro Chemical (011780 KS) intends to retire 50% of its common shares, totaling 2,624,417 shares, starting from the 2024 fiscal year until the 2026 fiscal year.
  • With the annual general meeting nearing, NPS hasn’t revealed its support, causing unease for Park Chan-gu. Considering NPS’s obligation to the Value-Up policy, cancellation seems inevitable for Park Chan-gu.
  • Whether the battle persists hinges on NPS’s stance. If NPS backs Park Chan-gu, their stake surpassing 25% could deter the opposition’s financial strength. Conversely, NPS’s neutrality could escalate the battle.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.

Kumho Petrochemical – A Significant Shares Cancellation Announcement

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 6 May, Kumho Petrochem announced a significant shares cancellation program which is likely to have a positive impact on its share price. 
  • The company announced that it will cancel 430 billion won worth of its common shares in the next three years, representing nearly 10.5% of its market cap.
  • Park Chul Wan, nephew of Kumho Petrochem Chairman Park Chan Koo, has been very vocal about the need for Kumho Petrochem to improve its corporate governance in past several years.

Emerging Markets Ex-China: Looking Back… And Forward

By Brian Freitas


Block Deal Sale of About 400 Billion Won of Shinhan Financial by EQT Partners

By Douglas Kim

  • EQT Partners announced that it is selling all of its remaining shares in Shinhan Financial for about 400 billion won in a block deal sale.
  • The block deal sale price range is expected to be 43,776 won to 44,688 won, representing 2% to 4% discount to the closing price on 6 March (45,600 won).
  • We would take the deal. The block deal discount is reasonable and Shinhan Financial continues to have attractive valuations and dividend yield despite recent share price appreciation. 

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): Scheme Vote on 8 April

By Arun George

  • The Azure Minerals (AZS AU) IE considers Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)/Hancock’s scheme and takeover offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$2.03-2.93 valuation range. 
  • The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as Azure’s key asset (Andover) will be majority-owned by Australian entities.
  • The scheme vote will get up due to irrevocables and retail support. At the last close and for the 18 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.1%/29.2%.

Wiwynn GDRs Early Look – US$1.3bn Taiwan GDR Would Be Easily Digested

By Clarence Chu

  • Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT) is looking to raise up to US1.3bn in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • Wiwynn recently reported its board’s resolution to issue up to 17m new shares in the form of GDRs for purchasing overseas raw materials, debt repayment, investing overseas and others.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.

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