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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Singapore: Grab Holdings , Samudera Shipping Line, Lendlease Global Commercial REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Their Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers
  • Small Cap Index Industrial Stocks led by Samudera in YTD
  • Smartkarma Insights: Lendlease Global Comm REIT – Growing through Sustainable Global Lens


Grab Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Their Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on transportation and fintech platform provider, Grab Holdings Inc.
  • The company had a pivotal year in 2023, delivering on key goals and achieving profitability in adjusted EBITDA since the third quarter and earning a positive net profit in the fourth quarter.
  • The company experienced a series of enhancements, including a successful rebuild of their mobility business which had been vastly impacted by the pandemic.

Small Cap Index Industrial Stocks led by Samudera in YTD

By Geoff Howie

  • The FTSE ST Small Cap Index comprises multiple companies that represent the Industrials Sector, with the segment of stocks operating across APAC and averaging an 11% ROE.
  • Samudera Shipping has led the segment of stocks with a 14% gain in the 2024 YTD, while also being the strongest performer of the segment over the past 5 years.
  • The FTSE ST Small Cap Index currently includes seven companies that represent the Industrials Sector, with average daily trading turnover for each of the stocks ranging from S$60,000 a day, to S$3.0 million a day.

Smartkarma Insights: Lendlease Global Comm REIT – Growing through Sustainable Global Lens

By Geoff Howie

Smartkarma Insights: Lendlease Global Comm REIT – Growing through Sustainable Global Lens

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Daily Brief South Korea: Angel Robotics , Paradise Co Ltd, Coupang and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Angel Robotics: IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Paradise Announces A Switch in Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI
  • Coupang Inc: Amplifying Luxury Retail Reach With The Farfetch Acquisition! – Major Drivers


Angel Robotics: IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Angel Robotics is target price of 20,277 won per share, which represents a 35% upside from the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • We estimate sales of 9 billion won in 2024 (up 75.2% YoY) and 14.9 billion won in 2025 (up 65.3% YoY). Our estimates are more conservative than the company’s estimates.
  • We like the strong sales growth of Angel Robotics. Many investors are likely to view this positively in this IPO. LG Electronics and Samsung Electronics are customers of Angel Robotics. 

Paradise Announces A Switch in Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 March, Paradise Co Ltd (034230 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
  • Paradise will be excluded from KOSDAQ150 when it makes the switch to KOSPI. However, it is not certain if and when the company will be included in KOSPI200.
  • All in all, we would argue that the valuations are not especially appealing for Paradise, despite the sharp pick-up in business in 2023.

Coupang Inc: Amplifying Luxury Retail Reach With The Farfetch Acquisition! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Coupang Inc., an e-commerce giant based in South Korea, has reportedly shown significant advancements and growth in their latest fourth quarter earnings.
  • They boasted a year of accelerating growth, record profits and notably expanded free cash flows in business, with the creation of the ‘wow’ moments for customers deemed as the foundation to their long-term growth, profitability and in turn, shareholder value.
  • Customer growth and revenues notably accelerated every quarter in 2023, with active customers growing 16% year-over-year.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Cisarua Mountain Dairy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Catering to the Demand for Convenience


Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Catering to the Demand for Convenience

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy booked a solid finish to FY2023, with FY2023 sales growth of +21.9% and net profit growth of +17.0% YoY, as it spent to grow new product sales.
  • Slower dairy was more than offset by the strong growth in premium consumer foods but dairy products are set to grow faster in 2024 through UHT milk and yoghurt sticks.
  • Consumer food growth momentum should be sustained by new product launches such as new products such Kanzler Crispy Nuggets Sticks. Valuations remain attractive relative to growth.

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Daily Brief United States: Karuna Therapeutics Inc, Ethereum, Zoom Video Communications Inc, Snowflake , Salesforce.Com Inc, Celsius Holdings, Domino’s Pizza, HEICO Corp, Ebay Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX.US) – This Company Is Worth Bristol Myers Squibb Paying a High Premium
  • Crypto Moves #18 – The Least Speculative Crypto Bull Market
  • Zoom Video Communications: Incorporating AI Capabilities to Improve Customer Engagement and Productivity! – Major Drivers
  • Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX US): BMS Acquisition Offers Decent Short-Term Trading Opportunity
  • Snowflake Inc: Can Its Rapid Development & Adoption Of AI Products Grow Its Market Share? – Major Drivers
  • salesforce.com Inc: Can The Spiff Acquisition Truly Enhance Their Offerings & Create Synergies? – Major Drivers
  • Celsius CEO Explains How They Win in Energy Drinks
  • Domino’s Pizza: Is Its Improving Supply Chain Profitability Enough To Warrant A Bullish Rating? – Major Drivers
  • HEICO Corporation: Is It Able To Capture Adequate Value From Acquisitions? – Major Drivers
  • eBay Inc: Increasing Investment in AI & Product Enhancement Is A True Game Changer! – Major Drivers


Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX.US) – This Company Is Worth Bristol Myers Squibb Paying a High Premium

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to large patient population and strong clinical demand for new therapies, the future commercialization prospects of effective drugs in the field of schizophrenia would be relatively certain and promising.
  • Our forecast on the peak sales of KarXT is about US$10 billion. In other words, at this peak sales level, BMS is able to recover the US$14 billion in cost.
  • Karuna’s P/B is much higher than peers. If investors already have Karuna in portfolio, they may consider taking profits in time.But another rally is possible when KarXT is officially approved.

Crypto Moves #18 – The Least Speculative Crypto Bull Market

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The cryptocurrency market is probably the most speculative, largely because it has not had enough time for price discovery, lacks consistent and measurable metrics, and has seen minimal institutional involvement.
  • The crypto market is unique for its overwhelming number of retail investors compared to institutional ones, a rarity in most other markets where institutions lead the way.
  • This dynamic has led to significant volatility, primarily driven by the emotional reactions of retail investors, more so than in any other market.

Zoom Video Communications: Incorporating AI Capabilities to Improve Customer Engagement and Productivity! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Zoom Video Communications, Inc reported financial results for its fiscal Q4 and full-year 2024.
  • The company’s revenue for the Q4 reached $1.146 billion, up 3% YoY. Zoom’s Enterprise revenue grew by 5% YoY and formed 58% of total revenue.
  • The company’s non-GAAP income from operations grew 10% YoY to $444 million.

Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX US): BMS Acquisition Offers Decent Short-Term Trading Opportunity

By Tina Banerjee

  • Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US) is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US) for $330/share in cash for equity value of ~$14B. The transaction is expected to close in 1H24. 
  • Karuna’s lead asset, KarXT has FDA action date of September 26, 2024 for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. KarXT has peak annual sales potential of $6–7B.
  • Considering strong clinical efficacy and favorable risk profile of KarXT, the deal seems to be fairly valued. Current market price of Karuna shares of $318.41 represents absolute spread of ~3.6%.

Snowflake Inc: Can Its Rapid Development & Adoption Of AI Products Grow Its Market Share? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Snowflake reported strong annual performance for fiscal 2024 with a 38% YoY product revenue growth reaching $2.67 billion, highlighting the company’s continued growth trajectory.
  • The company also saw an expansion of its non-GAAP product gross margins to 77.8% and it reported non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow worth $810 million, indicating robust fiscal health.
  • The company’s exceptional bookings in Q4 with $5.2 billion of remaining performance obligations mark a significant 41% YoY growth, this along with 14 Global 2000 new customers, underscores strong customer adoption and trust in Snowflake’s offerings.

salesforce.com Inc: Can The Spiff Acquisition Truly Enhance Their Offerings & Create Synergies? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Salesforce announced its Q4 and full year results for fiscal 2024, reporting a strong performance across all its key metrics.
  • This signifies an exceptional year for the company, with revenue, margin, earnings per share (EPS), cash flows, and current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) all recording increased growth.
  • The overall transformation seen in Salesforce and its industry has been noted to be substantive, primarily driven by the surge in artificial intelligence.

Celsius CEO Explains How They Win in Energy Drinks

By Odd Lots

  • Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts Radio News with hosts Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway
  • Discussion on energy drinks like Celsius and their rise in popularity
  • Interview with John Fieldley, President and CEO of Celsius holdings, discussing the competitive energy drink market and distribution strategies

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Domino’s Pizza: Is Its Improving Supply Chain Profitability Enough To Warrant A Bullish Rating? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Domino’s Pizza had a strong Q4 which the company attributes to its new “Hungriest for MORE” strategy, focusing on increased sales, store growth, and profits.
  • Throughout the earnings call, the company pointed at positive U.S. same-store sales and transaction growth in both delivery and carryout, signaling strong momentum in the business.
  • In 2023, Domino’s added over 60 new franchisees to its system, the most in 15 years, highlighting the company’s expansion strategy.

HEICO Corporation: Is It Able To Capture Adequate Value From Acquisitions? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In its recent results, Heico is showing a significant growth trajectory in its recent financial results.
  • This growth can be attributed to a couple of key factors, but there are also a number of risks and potential downsides that investors should be aware of.
  • In terms of positives, HEICO’s first quarter of fiscal 2024 showed dramatic improvement over the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

eBay Inc: Increasing Investment in AI & Product Enhancement Is A True Game Changer! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • eBay’s Fourth Quarter 2023 results demonstrated an approximate organic GMV (gross merchandise volume) growth breakdown of roughly 1% for the full year, despite discretionary spending pressure across major markets.
  • This resilience was due to an improvement in this metric during each quarter of 2023.
  • Focus category GMV indicated a promising upward trend, with growth close to 4%, significantly outpacing the other areas of eBay’s business by around 7 points.

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Daily Brief India: Neyveli Lignite, Adani Green Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NLC India OFS – Another GoI-PSU Selldown, Well Flagged Coupled with Strong Momentum
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy


NLC India OFS – Another GoI-PSU Selldown, Well Flagged Coupled with Strong Momentum

By Clarence Chu

  • The GoI is looking to raise up to US$248m from selling its stake in Neyveli Lignite (NLC IN).
  • This seems to be part of the GoI’s ongoing divestment drive across PSUs, with the recent selldowns in other PSUs having done well. 
  • The GoI had also sold some stake in the firm earlier in Oct 2017. 

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: JD.com Inc (ADR), China Vanke (H), Sasseur REIT, Li Auto , SenseTime Group , Fu Shou Yuan, Shanghai REFIRE Group, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Vinda International, SITC International and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com (JD US):  Improved Shareholder Return Is Key
  • China Vanke: Should Investors Be Worried?
  • Sasseur REIT (SGX: CRPU) – A Play On China Consumption Via The Operations-Focused Outlet Sector
  • Quiddity HSTECH Jun 24 Leaderboard: Capping Flows Li Auto, Meituan, and XPeng
  • Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Proposing a Special Dividend
  • Shanghai REFIRE Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • HK RE Series (2): Market Is Still Bearish but Bottom Is Near, Few Things Needed for Re-Rating
  • Vinda (3331 HK): Offer Now Open
  • SITC International (1308 HK): Bidding Farewell to the Trough


JD.com (JD US):  Improved Shareholder Return Is Key

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) reported a set of better-than-expected 4Q23 results yesterday, as the ADR rose 16% last night in US trading session. 
  • The improvement in net profit margin showed that being more price competitive did not lead to lower margins. 
  • I believe the key takeaway, aside from the resilient 4Q23 results and solid 2024 outlook, is the much improved shareholder return measures.

China Vanke: Should Investors Be Worried?

By Fern Wang

  • China Vanke has caused jitters as it was reported to be closely watched by some insurers as it seeks to rollover some of its debt with insurers.
  • It is reported that it has sufficient funding to repay its bond due on March 11th and is lining up a HK$1.5 billion syndication loan.
  • Vanke warrants close monitoring as there is no sign of turning in its reducing contract sales, deteriorating cash position, shrinking financing ability. 

Sasseur REIT (SGX: CRPU) – A Play On China Consumption Via The Operations-Focused Outlet Sector

By Robert Ciemniak

  • The Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Sasseur REIT: A Glimpse into China’s Outlet Industry on Feb 29 explored the Oulet sector with Sasseur REIT, a Singapore REIT focused on China Outlets.
  • Sasseur REIT is 57.85% owned by the Sasseur Group operating China outlets since 2008, with 4 outlets in 3 major Tier-2 cities currently in the REIT, with room for expansion.
  • Sasseur REIT is a play on China consumption and outlet operations. 2023 EMA rental income +10.7% Y/Y.  The 9.1% dividend yield stands out, at a relatively low aggregate leverage.

Quiddity HSTECH Jun 24 Leaderboard: Capping Flows Li Auto, Meituan, and XPeng

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • While there are no expected ADDs/DELs for HSTECH in June 2024, some index members like Li Auto (2015 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), and XPeng (9868 HK) could experience capping flows.

Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in June 2024.
  • Based on the current data, I see two low-conviction ADDs and two low-conviction DELs.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Proposing a Special Dividend

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) is likely to declare a special dividend in its FY23 result announcement as indicated in its board meeting notification.
  • Net cash at end-1H23 amounted to 14.5% of its current share price, providing room for imagination of the amount of special dividends. 
  • Besides raising its yield, returning excess cash should raise its ROE. This will also demonstrate the management’s confidence on the outlook and its financial position.

Shanghai REFIRE Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Sumeet Singh

  • Shanghai REFIRE Group (SRG) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner for the deal is CICC.
  • SRG designs, develops, manufactures, and sells hydrogen fuel cell systems, hydrogen production systems, and related components, as well as provides fuel cell engineering and technical services.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), it ranked first in the hydrogen fuel cell system market in China, with a market share of 25.9%.

HK RE Series (2): Market Is Still Bearish but Bottom Is Near, Few Things Needed for Re-Rating

By Jacob Cheng

  • Markets continue to be extremely bearish on HK/China, we look at the latest property market fundamentals and macro indicators, as well as company updates of our top picks
  • In the latest budget, the HK government just announced to scrap all spicy measures on property market and eased mortgage policy
  • With government support, we view the bottom of physical market is near.  For further re-rating, we need interest rate to go down, as well as resumed fund flows.

Vinda (3331 HK): Offer Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • PRC regulatory approvals were satisfied on the 4th March for the Tanoto family’s HK$23.50 pre-conditional Offer for Vinda International (3331 HK)
  • The Circular has been dispatched, and the Offer is now open for acceptances.
  • With a 50% minimum acceptance condition and irrevocables of 72.624% (plus Tanoto’s 7.69% direct stake), this should turn unconditional on or before the 19th March

SITC International (1308 HK): Bidding Farewell to the Trough

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The 72.5% decline in SITC International (1308 HK)‘s FY23 earnings is disappointing but should already reflected in the share price given the profit warning. Instead, this may be the trough.  
  • Spot freight rates for key intra-Asia routes have already recovered since 3Q23, with the YTD level higher than the 2H23 average. The 1H24 result may show a sequential rebound.
  • Even assuming flat YoY earnings in FY24, it still sits on a 9% dividend yield. The projected ROE of over 24% and net cash position mean 1.6-1.7x P/B undemanding.

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Daily Brief Japan: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Oriental Land, JSR Corp, Shinko Electric Industries, Ryohin Keikaku, Nikkei 225, Alphapolis, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Oriental Land (4661) Placement by Keisei Rail (9009) Says “That’s the Door”
  • Oriental Land Co Placement – Relatively Small One to Digest, Overhang Might Not Be as Large
  • JSR (4185) – Reporters Reportedly Report Conditions Such That JIC Deal Could Come Soon
  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Is Considerably Changed Now
  • JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Response to SUNY RF Lawsuit and Rumours of SAMR Approval
  • Ryohin Keikaku (7453): Q1 FY08/24 Update
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 Pullback: Buy-The-Dip Opportunity
  • Alphapolis (9467) – Thursday, Dec 7, 2023
  • From the Reality of 4%, Mandatory English Disclosure of Annual Securities Reports Is a High Hurdle


Oriental Land (4661) Placement by Keisei Rail (9009) Says “That’s the Door”

By Travis Lundy

  • Over two decades, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) has been the subject of softer and harder activist efforts to have Keisei monetise its stake in affiliate Oriental Land (4661).
  • The most recent efforts were by Palliser last fall, briefly discussed here two weeks ago when Keisei announced a buyback. 
  • Today, Keisei announced (Japanese only) an Accelerated Block Offering of 1% of Oriental Land shares. The accompanying announcement is worth reading. It’s pretty clear.

Oriental Land Co Placement – Relatively Small One to Digest, Overhang Might Not Be as Large

By Clarence Chu

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is looking to raise up to US$553m from selling a 1% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
  • Palliser Capital, has been pushing Keisei Electric Railway to reduce its stake in OLC to unlock shareholder value owing to the wide discrepancy between carrying/market value of the former’s investment.
  • Selling just 1% of shares outstanding, the deal wouldn’t be a very large one to digest, representing 4.7 days of OLC’s three month ADV. 

JSR (4185) – Reporters Reportedly Report Conditions Such That JIC Deal Could Come Soon

By Travis Lundy

  • JSR Corp (4185 JP) saw its stock pop Monday when an article in a Japanese paper said the Tender Offer would start “within the month.” 
  • Investors went from “concerned about delay or worse” to “anticipating resolution.” Then Wednesday just before the close the stock popped as media outlets reportedly reported no SAMR approval was required.
  • There has been no comment from either JIC or JSR but the discount to terms has gone from 6.9% last Friday to a 1.7% discount now.  

Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Is Considerably Changed Now

By Travis Lundy

  • Seven weeks ago I wrote about Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)‘s changing Break/Gap Risk as comps had gained. Shinko was cheap to its main comp and peers vs Announcement Date. 
  • Since then, Shinko is +4.1% and direct peer Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) is -14.5%. This has erased Shinko’s underperformance since announcement, and shrunk a 9% spread to 3.3% yesterday. 
  • With the spread tighter and tech showing some weakness, I’d be happy unwinding at yesterday’s closing spread (3.3%). 

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Response to SUNY RF Lawsuit and Rumours of SAMR Approval

By Arun George

  • JSR Corp (4185 JP) has filed a solid response to SUNY RF’s lawsuit. SUNY RF will counter with a response by 13 March. 
  • The response suggests that SUNY RF’s lawsuit will not be harmed if JIC proceeds with TOB, which is the strongest indication that JIC is comfortable taking on the litigation risk. 
  • A media article stating that SAMR has allowed JIC to withdraw its merger control filing helps explain the current tight spread. However, the article needs to be treated with caution. 

Ryohin Keikaku (7453): Q1 FY08/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) offers products covering all aspects of daily life.
  • For FY08/23, Ryohin Keikaku reported consolidated operating revenue of JPY581.4bn , operating profit of JPY33.1bn, recurring profit of JPY36.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY22.1bn.
  • The company’s full-year FY08/24 forecast calls for operating revenue of JPY640.0bn, operating profit of JPY48.0bn, recurring profit of JPY46.0bn and net income attributable to shareholders of the parent of JPY33.3bn.

EQD | Nikkei 225 Pullback: Buy-The-Dip Opportunity

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 INDEX is initiating a pullback that should be a buy-the-dip opportunity.
  • The first buyable area for a LONG trade, this week, is 39600 and 39300 (this week) and down to 38100 (next week).
  • The index should restart its rally after the pullback, and there is a good chance the pullback won’t last for more than 1-2 weeks.

Alphapolis (9467) – Thursday, Dec 7, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Alphapolis is a high-margin publisher of novels and manga, leveraging user-generated content to create salable products
  • The company is expanding into anime, opening up new potential revenue streams
  • Despite trading at a 5-year low, Alphapolis stands out with impressive sales and profit growth, offering good growth prospects and potential for a 2-3x return on investment on a 5-year horizon

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


From the Reality of 4%, Mandatory English Disclosure of Annual Securities Reports Is a High Hurdle

By Aki Matsumoto

  • TSE has published a proposal to require simultaneous disclosure of financial statements and timely disclosure information in both Japanese and English from April 2025 (for March fiscal year end companies).
  • The elimination of time gap between disclosure of financial statements in Japanese and English and the expansion of English-language disclosure of timely disclosure information are advances resulting from this revision.
  • As TSE continues to consider expanding the range of documents covered, the focus is on when English-language disclosure of annual securities reports, which cover all important information, will become mandatory.

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Most Read: Woori Financial Group , Alumina Ltd, Titan Co Ltd, Fast Retailing, New World Development, IDP Education, ARM Holdings, Kumho Petro Chemical, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A, Shinhan Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies
  • Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal
  • NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Titan Could Replace IOCL
  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – 2 ADDs, 2 DELETEs Maybe, but Rebals Tougher, and Fastie+TEL Are the FUN
  • StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)
  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Close Deletions
  • ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry – A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On
  • Interpreting Kumho Petro Chemical’s Unexpected Move to Cancel Treasury Shares
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows
  • Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Recent Selldowns Have Held up Since, Momentum Is Strong as Well


Investigating Potential Block Deals Involving Korea’s Financial Holding Companies

By Sanghyun Park

  • Stake sales by Affinity and Bearing PE are attractive due to the absence of special partnerships with Shinhan Financial Group, indicating favorable exit potential at current stock prices.
  • KB Financial draws attention due to Carlyle’s ₩240B EB investment in 2020. Carlyle can now convert to shares at ₩48,000/share, yielding 37.08%.
  • Woori Financial is intriguing. IMM PE and Eugene PE hold stakes, investing ₩450B and ₩386B respectively. Their yields are 32.55% and 10.45% respectively. No constraints on divestment.

Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

By Arun George

  • I have received several questions from readers on Alcoa (AA US)’s non-binding proposal for Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. 
  • The questions primarily concerned Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. 
  • CITIC Resources’ lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Titan Could Replace IOCL

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) should replace Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) in the Nifty100 Low Volatility 30 Index at the close on 27 March.
  • Constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 13.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 4.2bn.
  • The flows on the stocks are not very large but there will be same side and offsetting flows from other index trackers at the same time.

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – 2 ADDs, 2 DELETEs Maybe, but Rebals Tougher, and Fastie+TEL Are the FUN

By Travis Lundy

  • Now that the March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is decided, we have a model for the Sep 2024 Review. As previously discussed on Smartkarma, actual name changes get tough now. 
  • As of now, there should be two ADDs and two DELETEs. They might not occur. But there are two other situations which create interesting dynamics around big names. 
  • The dynamics of Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron promise more fun than the actual name changes in September 2024. It impacts how you trade Nikkei vs TOPIX and tech internals.

StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • Despite the lifting of the “spicy” property cooling measures last week, New World Development (17 HK) has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. 
  • Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Close Deletions

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, there are 3 stocks that are close to the deletion zone and could be removed from the index at the March rebalance.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a one-way trade of A$97m.
  • There are 9 stocks with over A$5m to trade from passive trackers but the impact on the stocks is not very high.

ARM Holdings IPO Lock-Up Expiry – A US$127bn Lockup Release Might Be Too Tempting to Pass On

By Sumeet Singh

  • Softbank raised around US$4.9bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings (ARM US)’ US IPO. Its remaining 90% stake will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
  • ARM develops and licenses high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

Interpreting Kumho Petro Chemical’s Unexpected Move to Cancel Treasury Shares

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kumho Petro Chemical (011780 KS) intends to retire 50% of its common shares, totaling 2,624,417 shares, starting from the 2024 fiscal year until the 2026 fiscal year.
  • With the annual general meeting nearing, NPS hasn’t revealed its support, causing unease for Park Chan-gu. Considering NPS’s obligation to the Value-Up policy, cancellation seems inevitable for Park Chan-gu.
  • Whether the battle persists hinges on NPS’s stance. If NPS backs Park Chan-gu, their stake surpassing 25% could deter the opposition’s financial strength. Conversely, NPS’s neutrality could escalate the battle.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.

Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Recent Selldowns Have Held up Since, Momentum Is Strong as Well

By Clarence Chu

  • EQT (EQT SS) , via Supreme, is looking to raise US$311m from selling its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).
  • Momentum on the stock has been strong over the past few months, and the recent selldowns in the stock have held up by the end of the week.
  • The share sale here will be a cleanup one, and a small one to digest at just 5.3 days of ADV. 

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Daily Brief Utilities: China Power International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • China Power International (2380 HK): We See More Upside


China Power International (2380 HK): We See More Upside

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Power International (2380 HK)‘s Jan power sales showed a sharp 41.2% YoY growth. More importantly, this marks sustaining a solid MoM trend in the last few months. 
  • Recovery of the hydropower generation is encouraging as this was a drag last year. Meanwhile, higher coal-fired generation will capture the better profitability of this segment.
  • CPI’s strongest earnings CAGR in the sector has made its earnings multiples increasingly cheap over the next two years. After +15.7% YTD in its share price, there is further upside.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Kumho Petro Chemical, Azure Minerals, Silver, Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku Kogyo, CNX Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Interpreting Kumho Petro Chemical’s Unexpected Move to Cancel Treasury Shares
  • Kumho Petrochemical – A Significant Shares Cancellation Announcement
  • Azure Minerals (AZS AU): Scheme Vote on 8 April
  • Silver: Is a Breakout Imminent?
  • Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku-Kogyo (4082) – Awaiting Solid Execution
  • CNX Resources: Hit the Gas – [Business Breakdowns, EP.152]


Interpreting Kumho Petro Chemical’s Unexpected Move to Cancel Treasury Shares

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kumho Petro Chemical (011780 KS) intends to retire 50% of its common shares, totaling 2,624,417 shares, starting from the 2024 fiscal year until the 2026 fiscal year.
  • With the annual general meeting nearing, NPS hasn’t revealed its support, causing unease for Park Chan-gu. Considering NPS’s obligation to the Value-Up policy, cancellation seems inevitable for Park Chan-gu.
  • Whether the battle persists hinges on NPS’s stance. If NPS backs Park Chan-gu, their stake surpassing 25% could deter the opposition’s financial strength. Conversely, NPS’s neutrality could escalate the battle.

Kumho Petrochemical – A Significant Shares Cancellation Announcement

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 6 May, Kumho Petrochem announced a significant shares cancellation program which is likely to have a positive impact on its share price. 
  • The company announced that it will cancel 430 billion won worth of its common shares in the next three years, representing nearly 10.5% of its market cap.
  • Park Chul Wan, nephew of Kumho Petrochem Chairman Park Chan Koo, has been very vocal about the need for Kumho Petrochem to improve its corporate governance in past several years.

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): Scheme Vote on 8 April

By Arun George

  • The Azure Minerals (AZS AU) IE considers Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)/Hancock’s scheme and takeover offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$2.03-2.93 valuation range. 
  • The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as Azure’s key asset (Andover) will be majority-owned by Australian entities.
  • The scheme vote will get up due to irrevocables and retail support. At the last close and for the 18 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.1%/29.2%.

Silver: Is a Breakout Imminent?

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.
  • Notably, early February saw the emergence of two contrarian signals that merited closer attention.
  • While these signals are not foolproof market timing tools, they warrant attention when they align with technical support levels within an established consolidation pattern.

Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku-Kogyo (4082) – Awaiting Solid Execution

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-3 FY3/24 results were in line with company guidance, reflecting the strategic importance for DKK to scale its new growth initiatives.
  • Ongoing positive developments related to semiconductor, secondary battery, and biomaterial applications were offset by weakness in electronics and the mature profile of the core automotive catalyst business.
  • Operating a business model that is externally driven (such as FX movements and raw materials market pricing), the company has disclosed ROIC targets that coincide with its current 10-year plan for FY3/32. 

CNX Resources: Hit the Gas – [Business Breakdowns, EP.152]

By Business Breakdowns

  • CNX is an ENP exploration and production business focusing on natural gas with a long history in the energy sector
  • CNX evolved from a coal company to a natural gas producer under new management led by CEO Nick
  • The current business model focuses on monetizing assets, separating coal business, and leveraging the productive Marcellus shale for low-cost advantage.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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