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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: IHI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • IHI (7013 JP): Buy Back in for Post-Crash Recovery


IHI (7013 JP): Buy Back in for Post-Crash Recovery

By Scott Foster

  • 1Q results supported management’s full-year sales and profit guidance, which remains unchanged. Operating profit was up 2.7x YoY on a 17% increase in sales.
  • Total new orders received increased by only 4.2% YoY and fell short of sales, but Aerospace & Defense orders were up 35.5% and slightly exceeded sales.
  • Our own forecast – above management’s guidance this year with further growth next year – and our share price target are unchanged. 21% potential upside.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Motor, GHCL Textiles, Meituan, Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr, Booking Holdings, China Education Group, MercadoLibre , Etsy Inc, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Bausch + Lomb and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente
  • GHCL Textile Q1 FY25 Update
  • O2O Playing a More Prominent Role in China Street Drinks
  • Toyota Motor Corporation: Investment In Future Technologies & Geographic Optimization Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Booking Holdings: Their Strategy Of Expansion Into Alternative Accommodations Paying Off? – Major Drivers
  • Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 9)
  • MercadoLibre Inc.: Strategic Utilization of Distribution Space in Brazil & Other Major Drivers
  • Etsy Inc.: Leveraging Advanced Technologies for Enhanced User Experience! – Major Drivers
  • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.: These Are The 4 Major Growth Levers Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Financial Forecasts
  • Bausch + Lomb Corporation: Acquisition of Trukera Medical A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

By David Blennerhassett

  • The trade in Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s Tender offer Buyback is to understand what YOU can do in your particular position.
  • Despite Swire Properties (1972 HK)‘s recent share buyback, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is still preferable on a look-through P/B of 0.34x.
  • Kirin bumps the Offer for Fancl (4921 JP). Given market gyration, it may represent enough of a switching opportunity to let those who still object in principle to re-allocate elsewhere. 

GHCL Textile Q1 FY25 Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Rs. 1,000 crores allocated for growth, with Rs. 350 crores deployed. 25,000 spindles added by May 2025.
  • Shift towards value-added products, including knitting, weaving, and dyed fabrics, with plans to double revenue in 3-5 years.
  • Despite expansion and potential opportunities, capacity constraints and global demand shifts temper expectations in the short term.

O2O Playing a More Prominent Role in China Street Drinks

By Andy Fu

  • On August 7th, Meituan’s on-demand order volume reached a historical high of 98mn on surging orders from street drinks. Meituan has connected to the backend systems of street drink vendors;
  • Delivery order is a double-edged sword. It boosts volume at the expense of margin. Further, the ownership of the volume is questionable;
  • With Pin-hao-fan, Meituan already atomized the small restaurants. Now Meituan is playing the same trick with street drinks. The result will be more dramatic to the benefit of Meituan.

Toyota Motor Corporation: Investment In Future Technologies & Geographic Optimization Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Toyota Motor Corporation has released its financial results for the fiscal year ended March 2024, providing a comprehensive overview that reflects both the company’s recent successes and its strategic investments towards future growth.
  • In fiscal year 2024, Toyota reported robust financial performance with total vehicle sales reaching 9.443 million units, marking a 7.0% increase from the previous fiscal year.
  • This growth was largely propelled by escalated sales outside Japan, counterbalancing the dip in domestic sales due to shipment suspensions from Daihatsu Motor Company and Toyota Industries Corporation.

Booking Holdings: Their Strategy Of Expansion Into Alternative Accommodations Paying Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Booking Holdings, a prominent player in the global online travel market, reported its second quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting a performance that exceeded expectations in various key metrics including room nights, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA.
  • Room nights booked during the quarter grew by 7% year-over-year, achieving a total of 287 million.
  • Revenue and adjusted EBITDA both rose by 7% to $5.9 billion and $1.9 billion respectively, while adjusted earnings per share experienced an 11% increase.

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 9)

By David Mudd


MercadoLibre Inc.: Strategic Utilization of Distribution Space in Brazil & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • MercadoLibre’s financial performance in the second quarter of 2024 highlighted robust growth and profitability, demonstrating strong execution across its primary business segments: commerce and fintech.
  • Notably, Marcos Galperin, the company’s CEO, reiterated MercadoLibre’s commitment to enhancing the financial and operational accessibility for numerous small and medium-sized enterprises across Latin America, a principle that has been foundational since the company’s inception 25 years ago.
  • From a financial perspective, the revenue reached $5.1 billion, marking a significant year-over-year growth of over 40%.

Etsy Inc.: Leveraging Advanced Technologies for Enhanced User Experience! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Etsy, during the company’s Second Quarter 2024 Earnings, reported a Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) of $2.9 billion, reflecting a slight year-over-year decline of 2.1% on a consolidated basis.
  • Despite the dip in GMS, revenue saw an uptick of 3%, totaling $648 million.
  • Moreover, Etsy maintained a robust adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 28%.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.: These Are The 4 Major Growth Levers Driving Our ‘Buy’ Rating! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings recently discussed its financial performance for the second quarter of 2024, and the results have been promising, outperforming the company’s expectations and leading to upward revisions in full-year guidance.
  • President and CEO Harry Sommer along with CFO Mark Kempa provided an overview of the quarter’s milestones, emphasizing the company’s strategic balance between return on experience (ROX) and return on investment (ROI).
  • The positive outcomes from the quarter were underpinned by robust demand and strong pricing dynamics, leading to record-breaking advanced ticket sales.

Bausch + Lomb Corporation: Acquisition of Trukera Medical A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the second quarter of 2024, Bausch + Lomb demonstrated notable performance across its diverse business segments and geographic regions, sustaining a trajectory of robust growth.
  • The company reported a significant year-over-year constant currency revenue growth of 20%, reflecting increases in both product volume and geographic expansion.
  • Revenue growth was consistently robust across various segments, with Surgical, Vision Care, and Pharmaceuticals growing by 9%, 11%, and 61%, respectively.

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Daily Brief Financials: Advance Create, Coinbase Global , Intercontinental Exchange and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Advance Create (8798 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update
  • Coinbase Global: These Are The 4 Biggest Factors Driving Our Bullish Thesis! – Major Drivers
  • Intercontinental Exchange: Sustaining Growth Through Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers


Advance Create (8798 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue decreased JPY2.2bn YoY (-26.0% YoY) to JPY6.4bn, with significant declines in the Insurance Agency and Media businesses.
  • Operating loss decreased JPY26mn YoY to JPY610mn, with notable improvements in the Insurance Agency and Media businesses.
  • Full-year forecast revised: Revenue JPY9.5bn, Operating profit JPY200mn, Recurring profit JPY100mn, Net income JPY70mn, EPS JPY3.19.

Coinbase Global: These Are The 4 Biggest Factors Driving Our Bullish Thesis! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Coinbase’s Q2 2024 earnings presentation revealed several vital insights into the company’s current financial health and its strategic initiatives moving forward.
  • As an investment consideration, the company disclosed robust endeavors in regulatory clarity, product development, and a diversified revenue stream along with advances in subscription and services reaching an all-time high despite a decline in transaction revenue from the previous quarter.
  • On the regulatory front, Coinbase continues to emphasize significant advancements, noting active participation in shaping cryptocurrency legislation—an undertaking likely to have profound effects on not only the company’s operations but also the broader crypto ecosystem.

Intercontinental Exchange: Sustaining Growth Through Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intercontinental Exchange demonstrated strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2024, achieving record net revenues of $2.3 billion, which is a 7% increase year-over-year on a pro forma basis.
  • Adjusted operating expenses were controlled effectively, bringing them to a total of $947 million, which is only a 1% increase from the previous year, also on a pro forma basis.
  • The company’s balance sheet showed resilience with adjusted leverage reducing from 3.9x at the end of the first quarter to 3.7x pro forma EBITDA by the end of the second quarter.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Acadia Healthcare Co, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Acadia Healthcare Company: Can They Achieve Portfolio Optimization through Facility Closures? – Major Drivers
  • Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc: Expansion of Xywav in Narcolepsy and Idiopathic Hypersomnia Markets & Other Major Drivers
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: A Deep Dive Into Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Advancements in Rare Disease Treatments & Overall Pipeline Development Driving Growth! – Major Drivers


Acadia Healthcare Company: Can They Achieve Portfolio Optimization through Facility Closures? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Acadia Healthcare’s second quarter of 2024 earnings presentation illustrated a company navigating the complex terrain of the behavioral healthcare industry with notable successes as well as areas that demand attention.
  • In their earnings report, the company reported revenue of $796 million, marking an 8.8% increase over the previous year, driven by rate improvements and growth in patient days.
  • This growth is a reflection of Acadia’s ability to capture market demand, particularly in the behavioral healthcare sector, which continues to see rising need.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc: Expansion of Xywav in Narcolepsy and Idiopathic Hypersomnia Markets & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jazz Pharmaceuticals recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2024, reflecting strong commercial performance and significant revenue growth across its diversified portfolio, which facilitated the company’s largest revenue quarter in its history, surpassing $1 billion.
  • In the neuroscience therapeutic area, Xywav, a key product for narcolepsy and idiopathic hypersomnia (IH), highlighted the portfolio with a significant increase of 13% in net sales compared to the same quarter the previous year.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: A Deep Dive Into Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals reported substantial growth in its second quarter of 2024, with a 12% increase in total revenues to $3.55 billion.
  • This rise was driven significantly by the U.S. sales of EYLEA HD, which reached $304 million in its third quarter on the market.
  • The combined net product sales of EYLEA HD and EYLEA were $1.53 billion, marking a 2.3% year-over-year growth.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Advancements in Rare Disease Treatments & Overall Pipeline Development Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals displayed robust performance in the second quarter of 2024, marked by significant progress across its various operational and developmental sectors.
  • The company’s revenue for the quarter was $2.65 billion, representing a 6% increase year-over-year.
  • Most notably, Vertex has raised its full-year product revenue guidance to between $10.65 billion and $10.85 billion, indicating a projected growth of approximately 9% compared to 2023.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 9th): Aia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 9th): Aia, Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Aug 9th): Aia, Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Aug 9th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: A New Type Of “Deemed Shareholding” Has Emerged! and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • A New Type Of “Deemed Shareholding” Has Emerged!


A New Type Of “Deemed Shareholding” Has Emerged!

By Aki Matsumoto

  • For first time in 30 years, the fund is back, matching the demand of companies that want to reduce cross-holdings immediately and companies that want more time to sell cross-holdings.
  • If the voting rights of cross-shareholdings contributed to the fund are retained, corporate governance will remain an issue until the fund’s investment is terminated.
  • In reviewing recently filed annual securities reports, we often see cases where cross-held shares in more closely related companies are contributed to retirement benefit trusts instead of being sold.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report : How Indian Markets Performed After Steep Falls and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report : How Indian Markets Performed After Steep Falls
  • [Counting Beans 2024/32] Grains Rise on Weak USD But Ample Supplies Limit Gains
  • TSMC July Revenue Surges 44.7% YoY, Sets A New Record Monthly High
  • Consumer Tales Aug Wk#2: DFI Retail Pivots, Kalyan Glitters, Ola Lists, FirstCry IPO Closes
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 09/08/2024


Thematic Report : How Indian Markets Performed After Steep Falls

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Markets have a tendency to bounce back after steep falls, offering opportunities for investors to benefit from the recovery. 
  • By understanding historical data and market patterns, investors can make informed decisions and stay resilient during turbulent times.
  • As we move forward, it’s important to remember that market fluctuations are a normal part of investing, and staying focused on long-term goals is crucial for success.

[Counting Beans 2024/32] Grains Rise on Weak USD But Ample Supplies Limit Gains

By Amrutha Raj

  • Wheat prices surged due to strong demand and reduced European harvests. Favorable weather conditions in the US limited further gains.
  • Corn prices initially rose on strong exports but retreated as the dollar strengthened and focus shifted to abundant supplies.
  • Soybean prices experienced a short-lived rally due to short covering and a weak dollar. Expectations of record US production and sluggish demand capped gains.

TSMC July Revenue Surges 44.7% YoY, Sets A New Record Monthly High

By William Keating

  • TSMC July revenues of NT$256.95 billion, +23.6% MoM & + a whopping 44.7% YoY
  • Q224 silicon area wafer shipments amounted to 3,035 MSI, up 7.1% QoQ but down 8.9% YoY
  • Q224 semiconductor sales reached $149.9 billion, +6.5% QoQ and +18.3% YoY.

Consumer Tales Aug Wk#2: DFI Retail Pivots, Kalyan Glitters, Ola Lists, FirstCry IPO Closes

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • DFI Retail (DFI SP) : Improved profitability and robust cash flows makes the stock attractive with limited downside; it is trading at nearly 5% dividend yield.
  • Ola Electric IPO was oversubscribed by 4.26 times and debuted at par with the issue price of Rs76 at the exchanges today

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 09/08/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price NOK52 per share: All eyes on EG – 1H24 production was 9,168 bbl/d.
  • EG and Gabon production had already been disclosed.
  • 1H24 production in Tunisia was 1,670 bbl/d (we forecasted 1,760 bbl/d) given subdued activities.

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Daily Brief ECM: Rubicon Research Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Rubicon Research Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Rubicon Research Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, IIFL, JM Fin and SBI Caps. 
  • Rubicon Research is a pharmaceutical formulations company with an increasing portfolio of specialty products and drug-device combination products targeting regulated markets, particularly, the United States.
  • It was ranked among the top 10 Indian companies, in terms of total Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) approvals, as per Frost & Sullivan (F&S).

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings


Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Thoughts On Swire Properties (1972 HK)’s Buyback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Thoughts On Swire Properties (1972 HK)’s Buyback
  • Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?
  • Targeting Spreads by Leveraging the High Predictability of the Celltrion Merger
  • Block Deal Sale of About 98 Billion Won Worth of Acushnet Holdings by Fila Holdings
  • Reddit (RDDT): Post-IPO Inclusion in US & Global Indices
  • EQD | The HSI Rebound Can Reach Higher Prices in August


Thoughts On Swire Properties (1972 HK)’s Buyback

By David Blennerhassett


Trend Micro (4704) Up For Sale? Would Be a HUGE Buyout But How Huge? And Who?

By Travis Lundy

  • A Reuters article overnight says Trend Micro might be up for sale. This caused the ADRs to jump 10% overnight. The remaining co-founders are 65 and 70 this year. 
  • The stock has effectively gone sideways the last few years as Value Act has been activisting. Now one has to exercise one’s imagination to think about a possible sale price. 
  • On a DCF basis, a PE fund couldn’t reasonably do this. Multiples are too high. That means a strategic buyer would be more likely. But Who? Why? And How much?

Targeting Spreads by Leveraging the High Predictability of the Celltrion Merger

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local market views Celltrion’s shareholder survey as the start of the merger process, with a decision expected from the boards within two to three months if there’s no major opposition.
  • Under Korean law, if Celltrion Pharm’s market cap is under one-tenth of Celltrion’s, the merger can proceed as a small-scale merger, allowing Celltrion to avoid shareholder approval and appraisal rights.
  • We should leverage the merger’s high predictability to proactively target merger swap and appraisal rights spreads and build a strategy in advance.

Block Deal Sale of About 98 Billion Won Worth of Acushnet Holdings by Fila Holdings

By Douglas Kim

  • Fila Holdings announced that its subsidiary Magnus Holdings plans to sell a 1.8% stake in Acushnet Holdings in a block deal sale worth about 98 billion won. 
  • Our NAV valuation of Fila Holdings suggests an implied value per share of 49,192 won, representing 18.2% upside from current levels. Fila Holdings’ 51.9% stake in Acushnet Holdings.
  • The block deal sale of Acushnet Holdings by Magnus Holdings is likely to have a positive impact on Fila Holdings as it could result in higher capital returns to shareholders.

Reddit (RDDT): Post-IPO Inclusion in US & Global Indices

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Reddit (RDDT US) is ineligible for inclusion for the upcoming August review because of fcap failing the fcap threshold if it qualifies for the standard segment. 
  • Reddit (RDDT US) is ineligible for inclusion for the upcoming September review because of failing the minimum public voting rights threshold.
  • The IPO lock-up expiry increases the probability for inclusion in November and December review for US and Global indices. Forecasted demand in December is ~$360m and 2.1 ADV. 

EQD | The HSI Rebound Can Reach Higher Prices in August

By Nico Rosti

  • In a previous insight we forecasted a rally for the Hang Seng Index in August. The picture has not changed, a positive close above 17344.60 is still possible.
  • Looking at our MRM SHORT WEEKLY model for the HSI we can see that it has not yet reached overbought levels, so it could rise further in the next weeks.
  • Conversely a SHORT trade will be possible from the levels we will indicate below.

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