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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: Hanon Systems, Samhyun and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • On A Charge: Hanon Systems & Renewed Interest In Hahn/Hankook’s Stake
  • Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis


On A Charge: Hanon Systems & Renewed Interest In Hahn/Hankook’s Stake

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in 2004, Hahn & Co and Hankook Tire (161390 KS) acquired a 70% stake in Hanon Systems (018880 KS) from Visteon (VC US), an automotive electronics supplier, for ₩3.8tn.
  • Three years ago, Hahn/Hankook explored the sale of this 70% stake, which was expected to fetch ~₩8tn (US$7bn). Reportedly, Carlyle, TPG, Bain and auto supplier Mahle submitted preliminary bids.
  • That 70% stake is now worth ₩2.3tn. And reportedly, Carlyle has returned to the trough. 

Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Samhyun reported excellent IPO bookbuilding results. Samhyun’s IPO price has been determined at 30,000 won per share, which is 20% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 2,168 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 649 to 1. Samhyun will start trading on 21 March 2024. 
  • Our base case valuation of Samhyun is implied market cap of 396 billion won or target price of 37,402 won, which is 25% higher than the IPO price.

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Daily Brief United States: Myshell, SK Growth Opportunities , Gold, Bitcoin, Globalstar Inc, Wheaton Precious Metals and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Ethan Sun and Santiago Santos: Bringing Crypto x AI Experiences to Millions with MyShell.AI
  • A Merger Between WeBull and SK Growth Opportunities Corp in NASDAQ
  • Global Commodities: Gold Rushes to Record Highs
  • Crypto Crisp: Oh, hello there, London
  • Globalstar Inc (GSAT) – Monday, Dec 11, 2023
  • Wheaton Precious Metals – Putting WPM onto GMT


Ethan Sun and Santiago Santos: Bringing Crypto x AI Experiences to Millions with MyShell.AI

By The Delphi Podcast

  • Ethan is the co-founder of Myshell, a company focused on AI technology in various sectors such as computer vision, deep learning, and robotics
  • Myshell aims to empower creators on their platform to use multiple AI models to create unique and personalized experiences for users
  • The company offers a diverse range of chatbot characters with unique personalities and voices, allowing creators to engage with users in a more interactive and personalized way.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


A Merger Between WeBull and SK Growth Opportunities Corp in NASDAQ

By Douglas Kim

  • On 28 February, WeBull announced a merger with SK Growth Opportunities SPAC on NASDAQ. The proposed transaction represented an implied pro forma enterprise value of about $7.3 billion. 
  • WeBull had 4.3 million funded accounts and  $8.2bn in assets under custody at end of 2023. In comparison, Robinhood had 23.4mn funded accounts and $102.6bn in assets under custody. 
  • Given the numerous material concerns about this deal, we would avoid it. There are no financials including income statement and balance sheet of WeBull in the prospectus. 

Global Commodities: Gold Rushes to Record Highs

By At Any Rate

  • Gold price has rallied to new highs, but market cap of US’s biggest gold ETF has shrunk
  • Push higher driven by quick money inflows, fundamental/ETF inflows, safe haven bid, technical drivers, FOMO
  • Physical demand from central banks and Chinese retail buyers has been strong, but recent rally seems driven by financial quick money inflows

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Crypto Crisp: Oh, hello there, London

By Mads Eberhardt

  • This week is off to a great start.
  • Bitcoin surged past $70,000, and Ethereum exceeded $4,000 today, marking a new all-time high for Bitcoin and Ethereum’s first breach of this level in over two years.
  • At the office, there is a running joke that the crypto bull run has made me overly confident, leading my colleagues to secretly hope for a downturn.

Globalstar Inc (GSAT) – Monday, Dec 11, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • GSAT is a telecom infrastructure provider with two core businesses: Mobile Satellite Services and spectrum holdings
  • Despite progress and validation from companies like Apple and Qualcomm, the stock price does not reflect the value of the assets
  • Recent developments, including partnerships and leadership changes, indicate a promising future for GSAT, despite past challenges and skepticism from institutional investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Wheaton Precious Metals – Putting WPM onto GMT

By Edison Investment Research

On 20 February, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had produced 14,615oz (15.2%) and sold 18,618oz (19.3%) more gold than our prior expectations for Q423, and produced 326koz (7.8%) and sold 530koz (20.0%) more silver. As a result, ahead of Q423/FY23 results scheduled for 14 March, we have increased our EPS forecast for Q423 by 25.3%, to close to the top of the range of market expectations for both the quarter and the full year.


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Daily Brief China: CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd, Full Truck Alliance , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement A, Lianlian DigiTech, Gold, Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A, Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust, Longfor Properties, Hutchmed China Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer
  • CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!
  • Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: Exp. One-Way Flow Tops US$3bn Due to Passive AUM Surge
  • Lianlian Digitech IPO: Worsening Profitability and More Capital for LianTong
  • The Aftermath of El Nino Weather // China Re-Confirms 5% GDP Growth Target
  • Bank of Ningbo – 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs
  • Yuexiu REIT – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, China Vanke , Pan Brothers
  • Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) – High Growth Is Expected from 2024 to 2026


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

By Arun George

  • CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
  • Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 

CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28 November 2023, SOE-backed CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced a conditional H-share buyback at a $7.00/H-share, a paltry 8.6% premium to last close.
  • This Scheme-like Offer, with a tendering condition, secured SAFE approval late January. But last month CIMC announced a CBP investigation into the evasion of U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
  • Now CIMC has announced a firm Offer at HK$7.50/share. Terms are final. The majority of independent H-shareholders are supportive. This looks done. Possible completion late-May, early-June.

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong
  • Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin
  • Buyback update & Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: Exp. One-Way Flow Tops US$3bn Due to Passive AUM Surge

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in June 2024.
  • There are some changes to the list of expected ADDs/DELs since I published my last insight on this roughly a month ago.

Lianlian Digitech IPO: Worsening Profitability and More Capital for LianTong

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)  is a digital payment solution provider in China has filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
  • As per news media outlets, the company plans to raise US$500m to help enhance its technological capabilities and expand global operations.
  • In this insight, we have discussed the company’s business model, key financials and the outlook on the company.

The Aftermath of El Nino Weather // China Re-Confirms 5% GDP Growth Target

By The Commodity Report

  • China set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2024, according to the “Government Work Report” released Tuesday as part of the opening of the National People’s Congress annual meeting.

  • Last year China’s economy grew by 5.2%, matching the official target of around 5%.

  • China set a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3% for the year, down from a rare upward revision to 3.8% late last year from the original 3%.


Bank of Ningbo – 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Bank of Ningbo saw its margins decline dramatically from 1.79% to 1.55% from 3Q22 to 3Q23. This is of concern for earnings power in coming quarters.
  • The bank’s loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is now down to 73% from 78% YoY which tends to act as a dampener on NIM and core income.
  • Credit metrics are worsening with NPLs up from RMB7.9bn to RMB9.3bn YoY in 3Q23. This rise is not easily visible in the NPL ratio due to rising total loans.

Yuexiu REIT – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Yuexiu REIT’s FY 2023 results were acceptable in our view, as earnings from its hotels and retail assets recovered y-o-y on the back of China’s resumption of economic activities following the pandemic. This was partly offset by lower earnings from its office buildings. The overall portfolio occupancy rate improved in H2, but was down marginally amid weakness in the office segment. Net debt decreased in H2, but was largely stable. Positively, the portfolio asset valuation was largely unchanged at CNY 42.6 bn. That said, the financial profile remains moderately weak.

We view refinancing risk as manageable, considering Yuexiu REIT’s healthy access to funding and large proportion of unencumbered assets. It will likely continue refinancing offshore floating-rate debt with onshore fixed-rate borrowings, which could help stem FX losses and lower interest costs.

We revise our fundamental Credit Bias to “Stable” from “Negative”, and move our trade recommendation to “Buy” from “Hold” on the YXREIT 2.65 ’26s. 


Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, China Vanke , Pan Brothers

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) – High Growth Is Expected from 2024 to 2026

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • HUTCHMED’s 2023 results were in line with expectation. It is gradually becoming a self-sufficient innovative drug enterprise with sufficient cashflow due to upfront/milestone payments of Takeda and increasing product revenue.
  • 2024 revenue guidance seems very optimistic, which has to rely on fruquintinib’s global sales performance (or Takeda’s contribution), and also on the timing of approval of fruquintinib’s 2L gastric cancer.
  • Starting from 2024, HUTCHMED will enter a period of accelerated growth in product revenue based on major catalysts.Market value of US$1,200 – US$1,800 million is a good place to long. 

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Daily Brief India: Gopal Snacks , Ola Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Gopal Snacks Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • Ola Electric Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation


Gopal Snacks Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Gopal Snacks (1592789D IN) IPO worth INR 6.5 bn is live on the bourses. 
  • The company is a prominent snacks manufacturer in India, especially in the state of Gujarat. It boasts one of the highest fixed asset turnover ratio and high ROCEs. 
  • On the flipside, caution must remain on its dull revenue growth post F22 and on its related party transactions, especially with promoter companies.

Ola Electric Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ola Electric is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
  • In our previous note we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

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Daily Brief Japan: Nippon Express Holdings, Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry, Advantest Corp, JPY, Jafco Co Ltd, T&D Holdings, Monex Group Inc, Lawson Inc, Kumiai Chemical Industry Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang
  • Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): 3D Succeeds in Securing a Bump to JPY1,438
  • Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted
  • Global FX & Economics: Not safe yet
  • JAFCO (8595) In the Right Place at the Right Time
  • JAFCO Group (8595): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • T&D Holdings (8795): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • Monex Group (8698): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • KDDI and Lawson: Building an Ecosystem from a Base of Loyalty Points
  • Kumiai Chemical Industry (4996): Q1 Fy06/24 Flash


Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That’s an 8.7% discount for no dilution. 
  • Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.
  • Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.

Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP): 3D Succeeds in Securing a Bump to JPY1,438

By Arun George

  • Inaba has bumped its Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP) offer by 6.5% to JPY1,438 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 66.67% to 60.00% ownership ratio.
  • The bump was forced by 3D Investment Partners increasing its shareholding from 9.78% to 13.81% ownership ratio after the previous JPY1,350 offer was announced on 5 February.
  • While the offer continues to value YSK below book value, Murakami and 3D’s support paves the way for completion. At the last close, the gross spread was 7.1%.  

Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Advantest has dropped back 11.5% from its recent high but is still up 43% year-to-date and up 2.3X from a year ago. Consolidation is likely to continue.
  • Demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for use with AI processors could lift sales, profits and profit margins to new highs within the next two years.
  • That could bring the projected P/E ratio down from 75.5x FY Mar-24 EPS guidance to 31x FY Mar-26 EPS in a favorable but not unreasonably optimistic scenario. 

Global FX & Economics: Not safe yet

By At Any Rate

  • The yen has been the worst performing currency this year, but has been trading in a tight range around 150 against the dollar.
  • Recent developments suggest the Bank of Japan may make policy changes in March or April, possibly exiting negative rates.
  • Market may be getting ahead of itself with expectations for a hawkish shift from the BOJ, potentially leading to short-lived movements in the dollar-yen pair.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


JAFCO (8595) In the Right Place at the Right Time

By Rikki Malik

  • Core business well positioned to benefit from the growth in the Japanese VC industry
  • A good Partner for international firms looking to invest in Japan
  • New direction on Capital Allocation is underappreciated by the market

JAFCO Group (8595): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) is the largest specialist venture capital company in Japan.
  • In FY03/23, JAFCO reported revenue of JPY14.1bn, an operating loss of JPY4.4bn, a recurring loss of JPY3.0bn, and net income of JPY40.6bn.
  • JAFCO Group Co., Ltd. has announced a partnership with Nomura Asset Management Co., Ltd. to create a new publicly offered investment trust incorporating unlisted shares.

T&D Holdings (8795): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • T&D Holdings (8795 JP) , formed in 2004, is Japan’s first life insurance holding company.
  • In FY03/23, ordinary revenues were JPY3.2tn, ordinary loss was JPY74.1bn, and loss attributable to owners of the parent was JPY132.2bn.
  • T&D Holdings, Inc. has announced a change in its president.

Monex Group (8698): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) started as online brokerage Monex, Inc. in April 1999 with CEO Oki Matsumoto and Sony Corporation as core investors.
  • For FY03/23, the company reported full-year consolidated operating revenue of JPY79.3bn, net operating revenue of JPY73.3bn, operating profit equivalent of JPY4.8bn, pre-tax profit of JPY4.7bn.
  • Monex Group, Inc. has announced that it will record a gain on fair value remeasurements under the equity method of accounting.

KDDI and Lawson: Building an Ecosystem from a Base of Loyalty Points

By Michael Causton

  • Many are asking why KDDI would want to buy 50% of Lawson, Japan’s third biggest convenience store chain.
  • Some more imaginative analysts suggest this could be just the first step towards KDDI merging with Rakuten in order to beat Amazon.
  • The more likely future is an ecosystem to challenge Rakuten and LY Corp (Yahoo etc), starting with points and payments and evolving to other Fintech, e-commerce and health.

Kumiai Chemical Industry (4996): Q1 Fy06/24 Flash

By Shared Research

  • Kumiai Chemical Industry Co (4996 JP) is an R&D-focused agrochemical manufacturing and marketing company with herbicides occupying a large portion of sales.
  • Overall sales decreased as sales in the mainstay Agricultural Chemicals and Agriculture-Related Businesses fell YoY. Overseas sales accounted for 61.4% of total sales.
  • Operating profit decreased 49.3% YoY. Recurring profit fell 11.6% YoY, due mainly to a drop in earnings of affiliates under non-operating income, despite narrower foreign exchange losses.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Gold, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement A, Alumina Ltd, Kumiai Chemical Industry Co, Wheaton Precious Metals, Sinanen Holdings, Chariot Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: Gold Rushes to Record Highs
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: Exp. One-Way Flow Tops US$3bn Due to Passive AUM Surge
  • Alumina/Alcoa: Binding Agreement On The Same Terms
  • The Aftermath of El Nino Weather // China Re-Confirms 5% GDP Growth Target
  • Kumiai Chemical Industry (4996): Q1 Fy06/24 Flash
  • Wheaton Precious Metals – Putting WPM onto GMT
  • Sinanen HD (8132): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Feasibility study as a first step to unlocking a mega green hydrogen project


Global Commodities: Gold Rushes to Record Highs

By At Any Rate

  • Gold price has rallied to new highs, but market cap of US’s biggest gold ETF has shrunk
  • Push higher driven by quick money inflows, fundamental/ETF inflows, safe haven bid, technical drivers, FOMO
  • Physical demand from central banks and Chinese retail buyers has been strong, but recent rally seems driven by financial quick money inflows

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: Exp. One-Way Flow Tops US$3bn Due to Passive AUM Surge

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity from the entire universe of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. CSI 500 represents the next largest 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rebalance in June 2024.
  • There are some changes to the list of expected ADDs/DELs since I published my last insight on this roughly a month ago.

Alumina/Alcoa: Binding Agreement On The Same Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 26 February, via an NBIO, Alcoa (AA US) offered 0.02854 of its own shares for each Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) share, a 13% premium to last close.
  • Alcoa/Alumina control 60%/40% of the AWAC JV, an owner and operator of global bauxite mines and alumina refineries. Both companies have now entered into a Scheme on the same terms. 
  • Alcoa holds 19.9% in AWC after reaching an agreement with Allan Gray Australia. The key risks to the deal are FIRB approval and how CITIC, holding 18.9%, will respond.

The Aftermath of El Nino Weather // China Re-Confirms 5% GDP Growth Target

By The Commodity Report

  • China set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2024, according to the “Government Work Report” released Tuesday as part of the opening of the National People’s Congress annual meeting.

  • Last year China’s economy grew by 5.2%, matching the official target of around 5%.

  • China set a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3% for the year, down from a rare upward revision to 3.8% late last year from the original 3%.


Kumiai Chemical Industry (4996): Q1 Fy06/24 Flash

By Shared Research

  • Kumiai Chemical Industry Co (4996 JP) is an R&D-focused agrochemical manufacturing and marketing company with herbicides occupying a large portion of sales.
  • Overall sales decreased as sales in the mainstay Agricultural Chemicals and Agriculture-Related Businesses fell YoY. Overseas sales accounted for 61.4% of total sales.
  • Operating profit decreased 49.3% YoY. Recurring profit fell 11.6% YoY, due mainly to a drop in earnings of affiliates under non-operating income, despite narrower foreign exchange losses.

Wheaton Precious Metals – Putting WPM onto GMT

By Edison Investment Research

On 20 February, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had produced 14,615oz (15.2%) and sold 18,618oz (19.3%) more gold than our prior expectations for Q423, and produced 326koz (7.8%) and sold 530koz (20.0%) more silver. As a result, ahead of Q423/FY23 results scheduled for 14 March, we have increased our EPS forecast for Q423 by 25.3%, to close to the top of the range of market expectations for both the quarter and the full year.


Sinanen HD (8132): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Sinanen Holdings (8132 JP) is one of Japan’s major fuel trading houses, ranking sixth by sales among the listed fuel trading companies as of FY03/23.
  • In FY03/23, the company recorded sales of JPY342.3bn, operating profit of JPY895mn, recurring profit of JPY1.3bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY478mn.
  • Sinanen Holdings Co., Ltd. announced changes in its representative directors and a change of president.

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Feasibility study as a first step to unlocking a mega green hydrogen project

By Auctus Advisors

  • The feasibility study for the green hydrogen “Project Nour” has now been presented to the government of Mauritania.
  • Chariot holds a 50% interest in the project and TotalEnergies is a partner.
  • Mauritania benefits from an ideal geography for wind and solar energy.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Nippon Express Holdings, CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd, Advantest Corp, Full Truck Alliance , Samhyun, Qantm Intellectual Property, Tocalo Co Ltd, IDEC Corp, Mitsuboshi Belting and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang
  • CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer
  • Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted
  • CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!
  • Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS
  • Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Qantm IP (QIP AU): Adamantem’s Rumoured Non-Binding Proposal at A$1.817
  • TOCALO (3433): Recognized with B Score in Climate Change Report 2023 Published by CDP
  • IDEC (6652): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • Mitsuboshi Belting (5192): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That’s an 8.7% discount for no dilution. 
  • Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.
  • Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

By Arun George

  • CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
  • Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 

Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Advantest has dropped back 11.5% from its recent high but is still up 43% year-to-date and up 2.3X from a year ago. Consolidation is likely to continue.
  • Demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for use with AI processors could lift sales, profits and profit margins to new highs within the next two years.
  • That could bring the projected P/E ratio down from 75.5x FY Mar-24 EPS guidance to 31x FY Mar-26 EPS in a favorable but not unreasonably optimistic scenario. 

CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28 November 2023, SOE-backed CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced a conditional H-share buyback at a $7.00/H-share, a paltry 8.6% premium to last close.
  • This Scheme-like Offer, with a tendering condition, secured SAFE approval late January. But last month CIMC announced a CBP investigation into the evasion of U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
  • Now CIMC has announced a firm Offer at HK$7.50/share. Terms are final. The majority of independent H-shareholders are supportive. This looks done. Possible completion late-May, early-June.

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong
  • Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin
  • Buyback update & Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus

Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Samhyun reported excellent IPO bookbuilding results. Samhyun’s IPO price has been determined at 30,000 won per share, which is 20% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 2,168 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 649 to 1. Samhyun will start trading on 21 March 2024. 
  • Our base case valuation of Samhyun is implied market cap of 396 billion won or target price of 37,402 won, which is 25% higher than the IPO price.

Qantm IP (QIP AU): Adamantem’s Rumoured Non-Binding Proposal at A$1.817

By Arun George

  • The AFR reports that Adamantem Capital had submitted a non-binding indicative offer for Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) at A$1.817 per share, a 30.7% premium to the last close. 
  • In response to a previous AFR article, Qantm disclosed a non-binding indicative offer from Rouse but declined to reveal a price or the structure (cash or scrip). 
  • AFR reports that other potential interested parties, such as Quadrant Private Equity and IPH, are also in the running. Adamantem’s attractive offer sets a high bar for other potential bidders. 

TOCALO (3433): Recognized with B Score in Climate Change Report 2023 Published by CDP

By Shared Research

  • Tocalo Co Ltd (3433 JP) provides surface treatments that improve the performance of materials used across a range of industries by adding properties.
  • In FY03/23, sales were JPY48.1bn, operating profit  JPY10.6bn, recurring profit JPY11.0bn, and net  income attributable to owners of the parent JPY7.4bn.
  • Tocalo Co., Ltd. has announced that it has been recognized with a B score in the Climate Change Report 2023 published by CDP.

IDEC (6652): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • IDEC Corp (6652 JP) is a comprehensive manufacturer and vendor of control equipment, especially human-machine interface (HMI) devices such as switches.
  • For FY03/23, the company reported revenue of JPY83.9bn, operating profit of JPY14.0bn, recurring profit of JPY14.4bn, and net income of JPY10.1bn, with EPS of JPY348.4.
  • The company achieved its FY03/25 targets two years ahead of schedule, prompting management to announce upwardly revised targets for the same year in May 2023.

Mitsuboshi Belting (5192): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Mitsuboshi Belting (5192 JP) manufactures power transmission belts for automobiles and general industrial machinery. The company belongs to a group of six or seven global leaders in this space.
  • In FY03/23, revenue was JPY82.9bn (+10.7% YoY), operating profit JPY9.0bn (+18.2% YoY), recurring profit JPY10.5bn (+22.4% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent JPY7.1bn (+10.8% YoY).
  • In May 2022, the company announced the following targets as its vision for FY2030 (FY03/31): JPY100.0bn in revenue, operating profit of JPY13.0bn, and ROE of 10.0%.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: TASK Group Holdings , Globalwafers, Lianlian DigiTech, Globalstar Inc, NORBIT ASA, Carly Holdings, Torex Semiconductor, Infoteria Corporation, 1Spatial Plc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • PAR Tech Taken To Task Group (TSK AU)
  • GlobalWafer GDRs Early Look – Last Deal Did Well, the US$870m Raising Here Will Take It to Net Cash
  • Lianlian Digitech IPO: Worsening Profitability and More Capital for LianTong
  • Globalstar Inc (GSAT) – Monday, Dec 11, 2023
  • Norbit ASA: Technology Is Part of the Solution and Leading to Outstanding Shareholder Returns
  • Carly Holdings – Growth accelerating
  • 3Q Follow-Up – Torex Semiconductor (6616 Jp)
  • Asteria (3853): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Accelerating
  • 1Spatial – SaaS applications to build on Enterprise strength


PAR Tech Taken To Task Group (TSK AU)

By David Blennerhassett

  • PAR Technology (PAR US), a hospitality technology outfit, and TASK Group Holdings (TSK AU) have entered into a Scheme agreement
  • PAR is offering A$0.81/share in cash, a 103% premium to last close; or a 50:50 cash/scrip option with an implied value of A$0.98/share, an 145% premium to undisturbed. 
  • TASK’s board unanimously recommends the Scheme in the absence of a superior proposal. A Scheme meeting is expected be held in June.

GlobalWafer GDRs Early Look – Last Deal Did Well, the US$870m Raising Here Will Take It to Net Cash

By Clarence Chu

  • Globalwafers (6488 TT) is looking to raise up to US$870m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • GlobalWafer recently announced its board’s resolution to issue between 36-45m new shares in the form of GDRs, with the use of proceeds geared towards purchasing of raw materials overseas.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.

Lianlian Digitech IPO: Worsening Profitability and More Capital for LianTong

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)  is a digital payment solution provider in China has filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
  • As per news media outlets, the company plans to raise US$500m to help enhance its technological capabilities and expand global operations.
  • In this insight, we have discussed the company’s business model, key financials and the outlook on the company.

Globalstar Inc (GSAT) – Monday, Dec 11, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • GSAT is a telecom infrastructure provider with two core businesses: Mobile Satellite Services and spectrum holdings
  • Despite progress and validation from companies like Apple and Qualcomm, the stock price does not reflect the value of the assets
  • Recent developments, including partnerships and leadership changes, indicate a promising future for GSAT, despite past challenges and skepticism from institutional investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Norbit ASA: Technology Is Part of the Solution and Leading to Outstanding Shareholder Returns

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Norbit ASA is a sensor technology company that focuses on niche applications, delivering high returns on invested capital.

  • By developing tailored, mission-critical technology, Norbit builds strong client relationships with significant barriers to entry.

  • Its shareholder-aligned management fosters an entrepreneurial culture and enables further growth through a decentralized operating model.


Carly Holdings – Growth accelerating

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings Limited (ASX:CL8) operates a vehicle subscription business, which it launched in March 2019, leveraging existing operations, strategic relationships and technology.
  • Car subscription allows business and retail customers to pay a single monthly fee to access a car for 30 days or more and is an alternative to purchasing or financing a vehicle.
  • Continued fleet growth in the December half year drove strong subscription growth which accelerated further in January 2024 with a 12% increase in subscribers from December.

3Q Follow-Up – Torex Semiconductor (6616 Jp)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • The graph below shows the trend of capex, depreciation, OP and EBITDA. According to the Company, major capacity expansion capex has peaked out in FY24/3.
  • While the peak in depreciation expense will come in FY25/3, the key takeaway here is that management has stuck to its guns and executed on its investment initiatives in the extended MTP targets to FY29/3 aiming to boost capacity for sales up 1.5x (see outline of capex plan on P4).
  • Based on our follow-up interview, inventory consolidation at the intermediate distributor level, particularly for consumer electronics in the Greater China region, is still underway in the Jan-Mar quarter, a similar trend observed by global major Texas Instruments. 

Asteria (3853): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Asteria Corporation develops enterprise software that connects corporate information systems, cloud services, and hardware devices without coding (programming), enabling automated data exchange.
  • In FY03/23, revenue increased 13.8% YoY. Revenue in the software business (excluding the design business) remained upbeat, growing 9.4% YoY, while revenue in the design business surged 39.8%.
  • Asteria has announced a change in entities in its consolidated group due to sale of shares, as well as revisions to its consolidated earnings and year-end dividend forecasts for FY03/24.

Carly Holdings Limited – Growth Accelerating

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings Limited (ASX:CL8) operates a vehicle subscription business, which it launched in March 2019, leveraging existing operations, strategic relationships and technology.
  • Car subscription allows business and retail customers to pay a single monthly fee to access a car for 30 days or more and is an alternative to purchasing or financing a vehicle.
  • Continued fleet growth in the December half year drove strong subscription growth which accelerated further in January 2024 with a 12% increase in subscribers from December. 

1Spatial – SaaS applications to build on Enterprise strength

By Edison Investment Research

1Spatial expects its FY24 results to be at least in line with our forecasts on revenue and EBITDA, driven by continued Enterprise strength, though higher rates and working capital swings affected PBT and net cash. Recent wins, including the €9m utility project, coupled with a robust pipeline and order book, underpin strong FY25 momentum. The transition to higher-margin recurring revenue models and rising SaaS adoption improved the sales mix. In the US, five new annual NG9-1-1 licences demonstrate execution by the new sales head, prompting a partner-led strategy to further accelerate demand. 1Streetworks is gaining traction after the UK Power Networks win and growing paid trial pipeline. Management believes expanding this flagship contract, leveraging efficiency and cost enhancements as a case study, could drive adoption across a potential £400m market opportunity.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Nippon Express Holdings, CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd, Advantest Corp, Full Truck Alliance , Samhyun, Qantm Intellectual Property, Tocalo Co Ltd, IDEC Corp, Mitsuboshi Belting and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang
  • CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer
  • Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted
  • CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!
  • Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS
  • Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Qantm IP (QIP AU): Adamantem’s Rumoured Non-Binding Proposal at A$1.817
  • TOCALO (3433): Recognized with B Score in Climate Change Report 2023 Published by CDP
  • IDEC (6652): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • Mitsuboshi Belting (5192): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Nippon Express (9147 JP) – Buying the Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering priced today at ¥7,338/share vs ¥8,039/share traded at the close on the day of the announcement. That’s an 8.7% discount for no dilution. 
  • Compared to a broad basket of Peer Baskets (yes, a basket of baskets), the stock has underperformed by 4.2%, and the 3% discount today puts it at 7+% move.
  • Given the relative cheapness, one should be comfortable putting this on if it gets sold off. This is not different to my initial opinion.

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

By Arun George

  • CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
  • Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 

Advantest (6857 JP): AI Speculation Discounted

By Scott Foster

  • Advantest has dropped back 11.5% from its recent high but is still up 43% year-to-date and up 2.3X from a year ago. Consolidation is likely to continue.
  • Demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for use with AI processors could lift sales, profits and profit margins to new highs within the next two years.
  • That could bring the projected P/E ratio down from 75.5x FY Mar-24 EPS guidance to 31x FY Mar-26 EPS in a favorable but not unreasonably optimistic scenario. 

CIMC (1839 HK): Firm Offer. With A Bump!

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 28 November 2023, SOE-backed CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced a conditional H-share buyback at a $7.00/H-share, a paltry 8.6% premium to last close.
  • This Scheme-like Offer, with a tendering condition, secured SAFE approval late January. But last month CIMC announced a CBP investigation into the evasion of U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
  • Now CIMC has announced a firm Offer at HK$7.50/share. Terms are final. The majority of independent H-shareholders are supportive. This looks done. Possible completion late-May, early-June.

Full Truck Alliance: Strong Q423 Results | Solid Q124 Guidance | Cheap at 14x Consensus ’24 EPS

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q423 revenue growth, core margins, and expense control all looked strong
  • Evolving revenue mix bodes well for long-term improvement in core margin
  • Buyback update & Q124 guidance both +ive; appears cheap at 14x consensus

Samhyun IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Samhyun reported excellent IPO bookbuilding results. Samhyun’s IPO price has been determined at 30,000 won per share, which is 20% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • A total of 2,168 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 649 to 1. Samhyun will start trading on 21 March 2024. 
  • Our base case valuation of Samhyun is implied market cap of 396 billion won or target price of 37,402 won, which is 25% higher than the IPO price.

Qantm IP (QIP AU): Adamantem’s Rumoured Non-Binding Proposal at A$1.817

By Arun George

  • The AFR reports that Adamantem Capital had submitted a non-binding indicative offer for Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) at A$1.817 per share, a 30.7% premium to the last close. 
  • In response to a previous AFR article, Qantm disclosed a non-binding indicative offer from Rouse but declined to reveal a price or the structure (cash or scrip). 
  • AFR reports that other potential interested parties, such as Quadrant Private Equity and IPH, are also in the running. Adamantem’s attractive offer sets a high bar for other potential bidders. 

TOCALO (3433): Recognized with B Score in Climate Change Report 2023 Published by CDP

By Shared Research

  • Tocalo Co Ltd (3433 JP) provides surface treatments that improve the performance of materials used across a range of industries by adding properties.
  • In FY03/23, sales were JPY48.1bn, operating profit  JPY10.6bn, recurring profit JPY11.0bn, and net  income attributable to owners of the parent JPY7.4bn.
  • Tocalo Co., Ltd. has announced that it has been recognized with a B score in the Climate Change Report 2023 published by CDP.

IDEC (6652): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • IDEC Corp (6652 JP) is a comprehensive manufacturer and vendor of control equipment, especially human-machine interface (HMI) devices such as switches.
  • For FY03/23, the company reported revenue of JPY83.9bn, operating profit of JPY14.0bn, recurring profit of JPY14.4bn, and net income of JPY10.1bn, with EPS of JPY348.4.
  • The company achieved its FY03/25 targets two years ahead of schedule, prompting management to announce upwardly revised targets for the same year in May 2023.

Mitsuboshi Belting (5192): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Mitsuboshi Belting (5192 JP) manufactures power transmission belts for automobiles and general industrial machinery. The company belongs to a group of six or seven global leaders in this space.
  • In FY03/23, revenue was JPY82.9bn (+10.7% YoY), operating profit JPY9.0bn (+18.2% YoY), recurring profit JPY10.5bn (+22.4% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent JPY7.1bn (+10.8% YoY).
  • In May 2022, the company announced the following targets as its vision for FY2030 (FY03/31): JPY100.0bn in revenue, operating profit of JPY13.0bn, and ROE of 10.0%.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Basilea Pharmaceutica Ag, Hutchmed China Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Basilea Pharmaceutica – Strong Cresemba traction triggers milestone payment
  • Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) – High Growth Is Expected from 2024 to 2026


Basilea Pharmaceutica – Strong Cresemba traction triggers milestone payment

By Edison Investment Research

Continued strong sales of Cresemba, Basilea Pharmaceutica’s lead antifungal asset, in the Asia-Pacific region and China, has triggered the receipt of a US$1.25m milestone payment from Pfizer (license partner). This comes on the heels of Basilea’s first sales-related milestone from distribution partner Knight Therapeutics in January for sales in Latin America. We believe these reflect sustained market traction for Cresemba, leading to in-market sales of US$445m in the 12 months ending September 2023 (+22% y-o-y) and c CHF30m in milestone payments in FY23. In December 2023, Cresemba was granted a paediatric label expansion in the US, extending its market exclusivity to September 2027 (EU decision expected Q124). Basilea is also developing a successor to Cresemba: fosmanogepix, a broad-spectrum antifungal therapy (Phase III trials to commence in mid-2024). We anticipate the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date (3 April 2024) for the company’s second asset, Zevtera, will be the next near-term catalyst, as the US represents a key market.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) – High Growth Is Expected from 2024 to 2026

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • HUTCHMED’s 2023 results were in line with expectation. It is gradually becoming a self-sufficient innovative drug enterprise with sufficient cashflow due to upfront/milestone payments of Takeda and increasing product revenue.
  • 2024 revenue guidance seems very optimistic, which has to rely on fruquintinib’s global sales performance (or Takeda’s contribution), and also on the timing of approval of fruquintinib’s 2L gastric cancer.
  • Starting from 2024, HUTCHMED will enter a period of accelerated growth in product revenue based on major catalysts.Market value of US$1,200 – US$1,800 million is a good place to long. 

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