All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Li Ning (2331 HK):  Update On The Name Given Potential Privatization News and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Li Ning (2331 HK):  Update On The Name Given Potential Privatization News
  • BYD (1211 HK) 2023 Earnings Preview: Strong Top Line and Bottom Line
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Centurion: Quality Housing for Workers and Students the World Over
  • Asics (7936) | Pumping the Brakes
  • APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices
  • Takashimaya (8233): Q3 FY02/24 Update
  • Eiken Chemical (4549) | Activists, Alchemy, and the Pursuit of Profit
  • Round One (4680): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results
  • Guess? Inc.: Does It Have The Steam To Be Taken Private & At What Valuation? – Key Drivers


Li Ning (2331 HK):  Update On The Name Given Potential Privatization News

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • According to public news today afternoon during trading hours, the founder and biggest shareholder of Li Ning (2331 HK), Mr. Li Ning, is mulling privatizing the public company. 
  • Mr. Li Ning has shown the opposite intention over the last few years, with several major sell-down of stake.
  • The company is trading at 16x 2024 PE, with visibility being quite low. 

BYD (1211 HK) 2023 Earnings Preview: Strong Top Line and Bottom Line

By Ming Lu

  • We believe revenue will grow by 44% in 2023 according to the sales volume and the price trend.
  • We believe net profit will increase by 100%, higher than the company’s estimate.
  • We conclude an upside of 54% and a price target of HK$304. Buy.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Centurion: Quality Housing for Workers and Students the World Over

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Centurion Corporation’s CEO, Mr Kong Chee Min. 

In the upcoming webinar, Chee Min will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh.

Angus will also be providing an industry overview, featuring landscape commentary and returns analysis. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session

In the spirit of giving back to our community, one of the attendees will also be awarded an Amazon Kindle as part of our exclusive lucky draw. 

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Thursday, 21 March 2024, 19:00 SGT.

About Centurion Corporation 

Centurion Corporation Limited (“Centurion” or the “Company” and together with its subsidiaries, the “Group”) owns, develops and manages quality, purpose-built workers accommodation assets in Singapore and Malaysia, and student accommodation assets in Australia, the United Kingdom (“UK”) and the United States (“US”). The Group owns and manages a strong portfolio of 34 operational accommodation assets totalling approximately 66,607 beds as of 30 September 2023. Centurion’s established portfolio of workers accommodation assets are managed under the “Westlite Accommodation” brand and comprises nine workers accommodation assets in Singapore as well as eight workers accommodation assets in Malaysia. The Group’s student accommodation assets are managed under the “Dwell” brand, with ten assets in the UK, five assets in US and two assets in Australia. With global reach and a clear growth strategy to actively enhance and manage its assets, identify strategic acquisitions and joint ventures, as well as develop customised accommodation management services, Centurion is well-positioned as a leading provider of quality, purpose-built accommodation.


Asics (7936) | Pumping the Brakes

By Mark Chadwick

  • On’s quarterly results disappoint, triggering a 10% stock drop. Meanwhile, ASICS’ share price is up 43% YTD despite modest performance.
  • ASICS shareholders advised to consider profit-taking as stock outpaces fundamentals, faces competition from resurging Nike and fast-growing On
  • On’s ambitious growth projections threaten ASICS’ market position, with potential market share parity within three years

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.
  • Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on Minor International (MINT TB), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) and Shiseido Company (4911 JP).
  • While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido’s Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. 

Takashimaya (8233): Q3 FY02/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Takashimaya (8233 JP) was founded in 1831 and is the operator of one of the leading department store companies in Japan.
  • Takashimaya began applying the Accounting Standard for Revenue Recognition from the beginning of FY02/23.
  • Takashimaya Co., Ltd. announced revisions to its full-year earnings forecasts for FY02/24.

Eiken Chemical (4549) | Activists, Alchemy, and the Pursuit of Profit

By Mark Chadwick

  • Two activist investors are now on the shareholder registry of Eiken Chemical. 
  • Eiken has proactively announced a share buyback to return excess cash holdings. 
  • Eiken has a quality underlying business which generates solid FCF yield. Expect higher shareholder returns in the future. 

Round One (4680): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Round One Corp (4680 JP) specializes in running amusement complex facilities in Japan, the US, and China.
  • FY03/23 results: The company reported sales of JPY142.1bn, operating profit of JPY16.9bn, recurring profit of JPY16.7bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY9.7bn.
  • In November 2023, the company revised its full-year FY03/24 earnings forecast.

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth & solid margin improvement
  • We analyze the impacts of JD.com & Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics’ Q423
  • Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view

Guess? Inc.: Does It Have The Steam To Be Taken Private & At What Valuation? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our special, one-time report on Guess Inc., a notable entity in the fashion industry that recently made headlines with its strategic acquisition of the New York-based fashion brand Rag & Bone.
  • This move signifies a significant leap towards expanding its portfolio and solidifying its presence in the highly competitive fashion sector.
  • The announcement was followed by a surge in the company’s stock, further fueled by speculations of a possible take-private initiative.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: US Inflation: Bad Enough for Powell to Change Course? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US Inflation: Bad Enough for Powell to Change Course?
  • Positioning Watch – Bye Bye Japanese Consensus Case?
  • Security Token Journal: Bitcoins to the Mass
  • Great Game: Cannibals in Haiti and Mediators in Istanbul
  • US CPI Reaction: Headache for Powell not so much markets
  • CX Daily: Survival of the Fittest — China’s Captive-Bred Pandas Get New Life in the Wild
  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 04-Mar-24 to 08-Mar-24
  • Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?
  • Cross ASEAN Ground Zero – BNPL Is the New P2P, PropertyGuru’s Vulnerability, and Difficult Logistics
  • US CPI Inflation 3.15% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Feb-24


US Inflation: Bad Enough for Powell to Change Course?

By Jeroen Blokland

  • For the second consecutive month, inflation has exceeded expectations, raising questions about the ‘stickiness’ of core inflation.
  • The real shocker was the Core Services, excluding Housing CPI, which increased to an eye-popping 6.8% on a three-month annualized basis.
  • Most likely, the latest CPI numbers aren’t the catalyst that ends the stock market rally.

Positioning Watch – Bye Bye Japanese Consensus Case?

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, which today will start at the growing number of BoJ officials who are now supporting an exit from NIRP possibly already in March, sending Nikkei 225 down >2% in Asia hours yesterday, while China and China-proxies were bid – quite a surprising dynamic in Asian equities, which we won’t rule out to continue over the next weeks, as markets are likely shifting away from Japanese equities if a hike actually comes through.
  • Our 250-day prediction from our PCA-tool (the blue line) has also been flagging the rally in Japanese equities, and now see a major divergence in the trend relative to the macro fundamentals, which has left a >2 standard deviations fair value gap, which seems likely to be closed via a retracement lower in Nikkei.
  • Chart of the week: Our models have been bearish Japan since early 2024It looks like some parts of the markets had already sniffed out the slight overpricing of Japanese equities given risks of substantial moves in JPY-rates, and inflows into US-traded Japan ETFs have decreased since early February, while China ETFs began to see modest inflows, but has now went back into negative territory.

Security Token Journal: Bitcoins to the Mass

By Warut Promboon

  • The security token market, though, has slowly developed mainly due to declining risk appetites sparked by COVID-19 in 2020 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24-February 2022.
  • What has changed that led us to update readers on tokenization is the approval of Bitcoin ETFs
  • The Bitcoin ETFs will be the first step to allow institutional investors to invest in cryptocurrencies. Next, we expect more ETFs of other well-known cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH).

Great Game: Cannibals in Haiti and Mediators in Istanbul

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Welcome to this week’s Great Game! We are still in waiting mode on a Gaza truce, which to be honest is baffling me.
  • But in the meantime, let’s cover some current events and the potential effect on markets.
  • Watch this article on video:Cannibals taking over Haiti?

US CPI Reaction: Headache for Powell not so much markets

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

  • Today’s US CPI report was clearly hawkish on the surface, but looking closely, it is not all too demoralizing for those betting on continued risk-rallies and a path back to target.
  • Clear path and further downside to OER according to Zillow and repeat rent.
  • Though a modest surprise, components are not alarming albeit not helping Fed’s intentions.

CX Daily: Survival of the Fittest — China’s Captive-Bred Pandas Get New Life in the Wild

By Caixin Global

  • Pandas / Cover Story: Survival of the fittest — China’s captive-bred pandas get new life in the wild
  • Private /China’s private quant, bond funds outperform peers as stock market falters
  • Payment /China pushes banks, Alipay and WeChat Pay to be more foreigner-friendly

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 04-Mar-24 to 08-Mar-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • New ATHs again in NIFTY50! But IVs move significantly lower! Holiday shortened week ahead.
  • Vol Regime Model shifts clearly to “High & Down” state. Wait-and-see approach warranted on account of 3-day weekend. 
  • As of 01-Mar-2024 Weekly & Monthly BankNifty options will expire on Wednesdays.  

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.
  • Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.
  • In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.

Cross ASEAN Ground Zero – BNPL Is the New P2P, PropertyGuru’s Vulnerability, and Difficult Logistics

By Angus Mackintosh

  • CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a new thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian digital themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.
  • This week we look at the changing fortunes of Fintech, as BNPL continues to show promise and P2P sinks deeper into difficult territory, exemplified by Investree’s troubles. 
  • We also examine PropertyGuru’s results, which reveal its vulnerability to markets and we look at Indonesia’s increasingly competitive logistics space, with a return to offline activity changing market focus. 

US CPI Inflation 3.15% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Feb-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • US CPI inflation for February 2024 slightly exceeded expectations, recording a year-on-year rate of 3.15% and maintaining this pace for five months.
  • Core inflation, which excludes volatile components, slowed to 3.8% year-on-year.
  • This slowdown in core inflation surprisingly exceeded expectations by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a resilient underlying trend.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thailand: Minor International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices


APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.
  • Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on Minor International (MINT TB), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) and Shiseido Company (4911 JP).
  • While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido’s Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Australia: Alumina Ltd, QV Equities Ltd, Metarock and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating
  • QV Equities (QVE AU): WAM Leaders (WLE AU)’s Binding Scheme Proposal
  • Metarock Group Limited – Turnaround ongoing and outlook encouraging


Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating

By Arun George

  • Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Alcoa (AA US) at 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share. The scheme meeting is targeted for 3Q.
  • While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump potential. 
  • Regulatory approvals are a formality, and Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) lack of support reflects HKEx listing requirements. At the last close, the gross spread was 3.4%.

QV Equities (QVE AU): WAM Leaders (WLE AU)’s Binding Scheme Proposal

By Arun George

  • QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU) has disclosed a binding scheme proposal from WAM Leaders Ltd (WLE AU) consisting of a cash and scrip consideration pegged to pre-tax NTA per share.
  • The indicative value of the cash proposal is A$1.02, and the scrip is A$1.058 (0.7609 WLE shares per QVE share). Shareholders are entitled to an A$0.013 March quarter dividend. 
  • The offer is attractive, and the shareholder structure facilitates the vote. At the last close, the gross spread of the scrip + dividend offer is 8.1%.

Metarock Group Limited – Turnaround ongoing and outlook encouraging

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Metarock Group Ltd (ASX:MYE) is a specialist underground mining contractor across both metallurgical coal and metalliferous hard rock mining, working with most tier-1 operators in the respective spaces.
  • Following a difficult 18 months dealing with legacy contracts that required an equity injection, asset sales and ATO payment plan, MYE appears to be coming out the other side, posting an adjusted $49.1m EBITDA over the 12 months to December 31, and reducing net debt to $62.8m which includes $30m of invoice financing.
  • Applying H1 FY24 annualised depreciation and interest charges we calculate EBITA of $22.8m for the last 12 months, implying CY23 EV/EBITA of ~4.9x.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: Kcc Corp, Jusung Engineering and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group
  • KRX’s Official SSF/SSO Reshuffle Results: Trading Considerations


KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group

By Douglas Kim

  • There is an increasing probability that KCC Corp is closer to separating the ownership structures of the three Chung brothers regarding the various KCC Group related companies.
  • KCC’s 9.17% stake in Samsung C&T is worth 2.8 trillion won. KCC’s stake in Samsung C&T is worth 117% of KCC’s own market cap. 
  • According to our valuation analysis, it suggests NAV of 355,925 won per share, representing a 30% upside from current levels.

KRX’s Official SSF/SSO Reshuffle Results: Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • The reshuffle results align with expectations, but the decision to list 11 KOSDAQ Global stocks in April is surprising. Local authorities seem to prioritize boosting the derivatives market for liquidity.
  • Ecopro Materials’ SSF listing, earlier than expected, attracts attention, potentially leading to an unusual basis pattern, coinciding with a major lockup release on May 17th.
  • We should also be wary of a pattern akin to last July’s in KOSDAQ stocks. Spot prices of recent SSFs showed a pronounced short-term uptrend, especially in KOSDAQ, versus KOSPI.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Centurion Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Centurion: Quality Housing for Workers and Students the World Over


Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Centurion: Quality Housing for Workers and Students the World Over

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Centurion Corporation’s CEO, Mr Kong Chee Min. 

In the upcoming webinar, Chee Min will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh.

Angus will also be providing an industry overview, featuring landscape commentary and returns analysis. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session

In the spirit of giving back to our community, one of the attendees will also be awarded an Amazon Kindle as part of our exclusive lucky draw. 

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Thursday, 21 March 2024, 19:00 SGT.

About Centurion Corporation 

Centurion Corporation Limited (“Centurion” or the “Company” and together with its subsidiaries, the “Group”) owns, develops and manages quality, purpose-built workers accommodation assets in Singapore and Malaysia, and student accommodation assets in Australia, the United Kingdom (“UK”) and the United States (“US”). The Group owns and manages a strong portfolio of 34 operational accommodation assets totalling approximately 66,607 beds as of 30 September 2023. Centurion’s established portfolio of workers accommodation assets are managed under the “Westlite Accommodation” brand and comprises nine workers accommodation assets in Singapore as well as eight workers accommodation assets in Malaysia. The Group’s student accommodation assets are managed under the “Dwell” brand, with ten assets in the UK, five assets in US and two assets in Australia. With global reach and a clear growth strategy to actively enhance and manage its assets, identify strategic acquisitions and joint ventures, as well as develop customised accommodation management services, Centurion is well-positioned as a leading provider of quality, purpose-built accommodation.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief United States: Guess? Inc, Eventbrite Inc, Immersion Corporation, Jetblue Airways, Gevo, Granite Ridge Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Guess? Inc.: Does It Have The Steam To Be Taken Private & At What Valuation? – Key Drivers
  • Eventbrite Inc (EB) – Wednesday, Dec 13, 2023
  • IMMR: Emerging Valuation
  • JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations
  • Gevo, Inc. – 4Q23 Results: Primed and Ready for 2024
  • Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. – Estimate Update; Upcoming Fireside Chat


Guess? Inc.: Does It Have The Steam To Be Taken Private & At What Valuation? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our special, one-time report on Guess Inc., a notable entity in the fashion industry that recently made headlines with its strategic acquisition of the New York-based fashion brand Rag & Bone.
  • This move signifies a significant leap towards expanding its portfolio and solidifying its presence in the highly competitive fashion sector.
  • The announcement was followed by a surge in the company’s stock, further fueled by speculations of a possible take-private initiative.

Eventbrite Inc (EB) – Wednesday, Dec 13, 2023

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Eventbrite has reduced friction in the customer experience to scale efficiently
  • Expanded offerings include reserved seating, merchandise sales, and on-site check-in
  • Eventbrite has become a one-stop shop for event creators, increasing customer satisfaction and retention

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


IMMR: Emerging Valuation

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The increase in automotive revenue in 2023 has led to greater revenue diversification at Immersion (IMMR) reducing some of the variability the Company has historically experienced between quarters
  • IMMR reported fourth quarter results better than we were projecting led by an increase in automotive and video game revenue.
  • The fourth quarter results did not include the benefits of the settlement with Meta Platforms (META), which causes IMMR’s cash balance to rise further

JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations

By Neil Glynn

  • 1Q24 upgrade from JetBlue increases our confidence that consensus is too low for 2024.
  • Investor Day on 30 May will provide the next leg of revenue self-help initiatives.
  • We model a minor net profit of $22m in 2025, versus consensus expectations for further losses, and the next 3 months are crucial for the carrier’s long-term prospects.

Gevo, Inc. – 4Q23 Results: Primed and Ready for 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • GEVO sold 90,666 MMBtu of RNG in 4Q23, up from 81,271 MMBtu in the previous quarter, which translates to 91% of capacity on an annualized basis, while generating standalone cash EBITDA of $1.3 million, down from $1.7 million in 3Q23.
  • The RNG division is expected to achieve $12-16 million in cash EBITDA once the company receives the CARB CI score in 2024.
  • This is further expected to increase to $30-38 million if California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) prices recover to $200 per metric ton.

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. – Estimate Update; Upcoming Fireside Chat

By Water Tower Research

  • During 2023, Granite Ridge executed its portfolio management strategy to grow the asset base and enhance its organic development growth opportunities.
  • FY23 production increased 23% Y/Y, far ahead of management’s initial expectations.
  • 4Q23 production averaged 26,036 BOE/d, including 12,283 b/d of oil.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: Li Ning, BYD, Huatai Securities Co Ltd (A), JD Logistics , Shougang Fushan Resources, PegBio, Adani Transmission and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Li Ning (2331 HK): Value Trap Play?
  • Li Ning (2331 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • Li Ning (2331 HK):  Update On The Name Given Potential Privatization News
  • BYD (1211 HK) 2023 Earnings Preview: Strong Top Line and Bottom Line
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Some New Trade Ideas
  • Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results
  • Shougang Fushan Resource (639 HK): FY23 Earnings, 11% Dividend Yield With ~50% of Mkt Cap in Cash
  • Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. – This GLP-1 Biotech Has Gloomy Outlook
  • Morning Views Asia: China South City, Greenko Energy Holdings, Road King Infrastructure


Li Ning (2331 HK): Value Trap Play?

By David Blennerhassett


Li Ning (2331 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • Reuters reported that due to the steep share price declines, Mr Li Ning is considering leading a consortium to privatise Li Ning (2331 HK)
  • The shares have been weighed down by concerns about channel inventory, steep retail discounts, and unauthorised distributor sales. To counter this, Li Ning aims to achieve RMB50bn sales by 2028.
  • The probability of an offer is low as funding the scheme consideration could prove challenging. Nevertheless, the downside is low as Li Ning trades at an undemanding valuation. 

Li Ning (2331 HK):  Update On The Name Given Potential Privatization News

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • According to public news today afternoon during trading hours, the founder and biggest shareholder of Li Ning (2331 HK), Mr. Li Ning, is mulling privatizing the public company. 
  • Mr. Li Ning has shown the opposite intention over the last few years, with several major sell-down of stake.
  • The company is trading at 16x 2024 PE, with visibility being quite low. 

BYD (1211 HK) 2023 Earnings Preview: Strong Top Line and Bottom Line

By Ming Lu

  • We believe revenue will grow by 44% in 2023 according to the sales volume and the price trend.
  • We believe net profit will increase by 100%, higher than the company’s estimate.
  • We conclude an upside of 54% and a price target of HK$304. Buy.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: Some New Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I continue to expect 5 changes for SSE 50 and 18 changes for SSE 180 but some names have changed since my last insight.

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth & solid margin improvement
  • We analyze the impacts of JD.com & Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics’ Q423
  • Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view

Shougang Fushan Resource (639 HK): FY23 Earnings, 11% Dividend Yield With ~50% of Mkt Cap in Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • We preview Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) earnings for FY23. We expect revenue /profit growth of -15%/12% YoY with H2FY23 revenue/profit -1.7%/2.3% YoY due to lower coking coal prices.
  • We expect the company to pay an FY23 dividend of 36 HKD cents, implying an 11.3% yield. At the current spot price, the implied yield is 11.3%. 
  • The company’s balance sheet is rich in cash, with more than a billion USD (~50% of market capitalization). However, we are skeptical that the company will pay big special dividends. 

Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. – This GLP-1 Biotech Has Gloomy Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • PB-119 (T2DM) has the fastest R&D progress, but this is a highly competitive market.China’s diabetes drug market is dominated by traditional drugs. It’s not easy for PegBio to break through. 
  • Since the future competitive landscape of GLP-1s (obesity) would present a very different situation.If PB-119 fails to have better weight loss effect, it would be eliminated due to fierce competition.
  • PegBio’s IPO on SSE STAR Market was rejected. We’re not optimistic about its future commercialization performance. Together with cash-flow issues, we doubt whether PegBio would bring expected returns to investors.

Morning Views Asia: China South City, Greenko Energy Holdings, Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: ITC Ltd, Adani Transmission and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • ITC $2bn Placement – Very Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest, Won’t Do an Indigo
  • Morning Views Asia: China South City, Greenko Energy Holdings, Road King Infrastructure


ITC $2bn Placement – Very Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest, Won’t Do an Indigo

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Feb 2024,  BAT’s management stated that they were reviewing their stake in ITC Ltd (ITC IN).  The news of a possible selldown by BAT was leaked again earlier today.
  • BAT has owned its stake in ITC for over a century and remains its largest shareholder.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Morning Views Asia: China South City, Greenko Energy Holdings, Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Japan: Keisei Electric Railway Co, ASICS Corp, Takashimaya, Eiken Chemical, Round One Corp, MS&AD Insurance, Stream Media , Gakken Holdings, Tenpo Innovation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity
  • Asics (7936) | Pumping the Brakes
  • Takashimaya (8233): Q3 FY02/24 Update
  • Eiken Chemical (4549) | Activists, Alchemy, and the Pursuit of Profit
  • StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish
  • Round One (4680): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • MS&AD Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell
  • Stream Media Corporation (4772): Full-Year FY12/23 Update
  • GAKKEN HOLDINGS (9470): Q1 FY09/24 Update
  • Tenpo Innovation (3484): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

By Travis Lundy

  • In late February, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.
  • I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.
  • Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn’t. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.

Asics (7936) | Pumping the Brakes

By Mark Chadwick

  • On’s quarterly results disappoint, triggering a 10% stock drop. Meanwhile, ASICS’ share price is up 43% YTD despite modest performance.
  • ASICS shareholders advised to consider profit-taking as stock outpaces fundamentals, faces competition from resurging Nike and fast-growing On
  • On’s ambitious growth projections threaten ASICS’ market position, with potential market share parity within three years

Takashimaya (8233): Q3 FY02/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Takashimaya (8233 JP) was founded in 1831 and is the operator of one of the leading department store companies in Japan.
  • Takashimaya began applying the Accounting Standard for Revenue Recognition from the beginning of FY02/23.
  • Takashimaya Co., Ltd. announced revisions to its full-year earnings forecasts for FY02/24.

Eiken Chemical (4549) | Activists, Alchemy, and the Pursuit of Profit

By Mark Chadwick

  • Two activist investors are now on the shareholder registry of Eiken Chemical. 
  • Eiken has proactively announced a share buyback to return excess cash holdings. 
  • Eiken has a quality underlying business which generates solid FCF yield. Expect higher shareholder returns in the future. 

StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s previously announced buyback is now confirmed to be a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. But also an accelerated share repurchase.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Round One (4680): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Round One Corp (4680 JP) specializes in running amusement complex facilities in Japan, the US, and China.
  • FY03/23 results: The company reported sales of JPY142.1bn, operating profit of JPY16.9bn, recurring profit of JPY16.7bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY9.7bn.
  • In November 2023, the company revised its full-year FY03/24 earnings forecast.

MS&AD Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.
  • MS&AD Insurance (8725 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.
  • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

Stream Media Corporation (4772): Full-Year FY12/23 Update

By Shared Research

  • Stream Media Corporation (TSE Growth: 4772; hereafter, “SMC”) is an entertainment company that handles Korean pop culture content, primarily in Japan.
  • In full-year FY12/23, SMC reported consolidated revenue of JPY8.9bn, an operating profit of JPY182mn, a recurring profit of JPY191mn.
  • SMC forecasts full-year FY12/24 revenue of JPY9.1bn, operating profit of JPY91mn, recurring profit of JPY94mn, and a net income attributable to owners of the parent of JP61mn.

GAKKEN HOLDINGS (9470): Q1 FY09/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Gakken Holdings (9470 JP) engages in the educational and healthcare and nursing businesses, providing services for demographics ranging from toddlers to the elderly.
  • For FY09/23, revenue was JPY164.1bn, operating profit was JPY6.2bn, recurring profit was JPY6.5bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY3.2bn.
  • The company will fundamentally reshuffle its portfolio and concentrate resources on priority areas while rebuilding its education business, and optimize the management structure for each business field to restore profitability.

Tenpo Innovation (3484): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Tenpo Innovation (3484 JP) is a real estate company specializing in restaurant properties.
  • FY03/23 results: In its first year of reporting consolidated results, Tenpo Innovation reported full-year revenue of JPY13.1bn, operating profit of JPY1.2bn, recurring profit of JPY1.3bn, and net income of JPY886mn.
  • Tenpo Innovation Inc. announced plans to start preparations for a transition to a holding company structure through a company split and changes to its trade name.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars