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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Crypto: Charting the Web3 Horizon in 2024 and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Charting the Web3 Horizon in 2024


Charting the Web3 Horizon in 2024

By Ocular

  • There has been a renewed wave of optimism towards web3 in light of recent events, including the approval of the long-awaited spot Bitcoin ETF; and the surge in market activity in the early months of 2024.
  • On the regulatory front, we have seen the conclusion of several high-profile court cases and lawsuits, including some of the charges involving Ripple and Binance.
  • Beyond the results of the rulings (which many argue are in favour/support of web3), the resolution of these cases in itself has provided greater clarity and stability to the ecosystem.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Angel Robotics , Dongwon Industries, Hanmi Pharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • New Information on Korea Value-Up Index Scoring System & Constituent Weighting
  • Angel Robotics: IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • An Update of the Potential KOSPI200 Rebalance Candidates in June 2024
  • OCI Or No OCI, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) Will Continue to Roar on Strong Base Business and Pipeline


New Information on Korea Value-Up Index Scoring System & Constituent Weighting

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX considers a comprehensive change to the Value-up Index scoring system. Weightings emphasize ROE, PER, and FCF while reducing PBR weight.
  • KRX considers adopting scoring-based constituent weighting to prevent JPX Prime 150’s issues, but NPS opposes. Float market cap weighting like JPX Prime 150 is contemplated to address concerns.
  • Momentum trading in the Value-up initiative will favor low PER and high ROE stocks over low PBR. The semiconductor sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from float market cap-based weighting.

Angel Robotics: IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Angel Robotics reported exceptional IPO bookbuilding results. Angel Robotics’ IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 33% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • A total of 2,067 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 1,157 to 1. Angel Robotics will start trading on 26 March 2024. 
  • We remain positive on Angel Robotics. There is likely to be a sharp overshooting of its share price relative to its intrinsic value on the first day of trading. 

An Update of the Potential KOSPI200 Rebalance Candidates in June 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We provide an update of the potential KOSPI200 rebalance candidates in June 2024. 
  • The bottom 5% market caps in KOSPI200 could be excluded from the KOSPI200 rebalance in June 2024. These 10 stocks are down on average 12.6% YTD. 
  • We identified seven potential inclusion candidates. Among them, those that have low PBR multiples including HHI and Dongwon Industries could continue to outperform the market leading up to rebalance announcement. 

OCI Or No OCI, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) Will Continue to Roar on Strong Base Business and Pipeline

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 2023, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) reported 12% and 40% growth in revenue and operating profit, respectively, driven by double-digit revenue increase from Rosuzet and improving performance of China subsidiary.
  • In January, the company has enrolled first patient in phase 3 trial of type 2 diabetes/obesity drug candidate Efpeglenatide. The study is expected to complete in 2026.
  • Hanmi Science-OCI merger has hit a roadblock. Although merger with OCI will bring synergistic effect, Hanmi Pharm will continue to grow even if the merger does not happen.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Singtel, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel
  • STI REIT Sector Weight to Return to ~13% with Frasers Centrepoint Trust Inclusion


Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly (AFR), Singtel (ST SP) is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. 
  • SingTel quickly countered there is no impending deal; and “Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term.”
  • Optus’ EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.

STI REIT Sector Weight to Return to ~13% with Frasers Centrepoint Trust Inclusion

By Geoff Howie

  • The STI March quarterly review will see Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) added to the STI effective the Monday 18 March open.
  • FCT’s inclusion is expected to take the STI’s REIT Sector weight back to ~13% from ~12% at present, and the number of STI REITs back to seven, following Keppel DC REIT leaving the STI in June 2023.
  • Impacting the outlook for financing costs, this has seen the six STI REITs average 9.4% declines in unit prices post the indicative 29 Dec 2023 STI weightages.

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Daily Brief United States: Microsoft Corp, Broadcom , Crowdstrike Holdings , Crude Oil, MongoDB , DocuSign , Bitcoin, Dr Horton Inc, Burlington Stores, Cadence Design Sys and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Microsoft Chairman & CEO: AI, Chip Shortage, Empathy, and Poetry
  • Broadcom Inc: A Stable Semiconductor & Software Ecosystem! – Key Drivers
  • CrowdStrike Holdings: Expansion Of Cloud Security With Flow Security Acquisition & 6 Key Growth Drivers – Financial Forecasts
  • Slow Crude Inventory Build Keeps Oil Prices Well Supported
  • MongoDB Inc.: Growing Interest and Demand for AI Applications Can Revolutionize Growth? – Key Drivers
  • DocuSign Inc.: Strengthening with New Technologies and Product Enhancements! – Key Drivers
  • Charting the Web3 Horizon in 2024
  • D.R. Horton: Building a New Model – [Business Breakdowns, EP.154]
  • Burlington Stores: Improved Execution Of The Off-Price Model Providing A Competitive Edge? – Key Drivers
  • Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS) – Wednesday, Dec 13, 2023


Microsoft Chairman & CEO: AI, Chip Shortage, Empathy, and Poetry

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • The speaker reflects on the excitement and nervousness of facing a new platform shift in technology and the need for continual innovation
  • They consider the broader economic impact of technological advancements, like AI, and the potential for breakthroughs in various industries
  • The decision to partner with OpenAI was driven by Microsoft’s history of seeking out ambitious technology innovators to collaborate with, even when the outcome is uncertain.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Broadcom Inc: A Stable Semiconductor & Software Ecosystem! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Broadcom reported consolidated net revenue of $12 billion, a 34% increase year-on-year, with semiconductor solutions contributing $7.4 billion, up 4% from the previous year.
  • Infrastructure software revenue saw a significant increase of 153% year-on-year, totaling $4.6 billion.
  • These improvements are due in part to the contribution from VMware, which has resulted in a sequential jump in revenue by 132%.

CrowdStrike Holdings: Expansion Of Cloud Security With Flow Security Acquisition & 6 Key Growth Drivers – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., a leader in the cybersecurity sector, reported an impressive fourth quarter and fiscal year for 2024 during its latest earnings conference call.
  • The call highlighted several positive aspects of the company’s performance such as a record net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $282 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 27%.
  • Furthermore, the company achieved a record operating margin of 25%, an improvement of 10 percentage points when compared to the previous year.

Slow Crude Inventory Build Keeps Oil Prices Well Supported

By Suhas Reddy

  • US commercial crude oil inventory build-up slows while refined products’ withdrawal accelerates.
  • OPEC+ members announced the extension of their voluntary supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day to end of June (from end of March as previously announced).
  • US refinery utilisation rates show signs of a speedy recovery, rises for the second consecutive week and jumps to 84.9%.

MongoDB Inc.: Growing Interest and Demand for AI Applications Can Revolutionize Growth? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • MongoDB reported robust Q4 results, with revenues reaching $458 million, marking a 27% YoY increase and exceeding the high end of the company’s guidance.
  • MongoDB’s Atlas product line grew by 34% YoY, accounting for 68% of the company’s total revenue.
  • The company also reported a healthy business quarter, owing much of this success to acquiring new workloads from existing Atlas customers.

DocuSign Inc.: Strengthening with New Technologies and Product Enhancements! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • DocuSign demonstrated solid progress across its three strategic pillars in Q4 and the full fiscal year 2024, which include accelerating product innovation, improving omnichannel go-to-market initiatives, and strengthening operational and financial efficiency.
  • Total Q4 revenue reached $712 million, up 8% YoY, with a full-year revenue of $2.8 billion, up 10% YoY. Both exceeded company expectations.
  • Also, Q4 non GAAP operating margin increased to 25%, a slight rise from the prior year.

Charting the Web3 Horizon in 2024

By Ocular

  • There has been a renewed wave of optimism towards web3 in light of recent events, including the approval of the long-awaited spot Bitcoin ETF; and the surge in market activity in the early months of 2024.
  • On the regulatory front, we have seen the conclusion of several high-profile court cases and lawsuits, including some of the charges involving Ripple and Binance.
  • Beyond the results of the rulings (which many argue are in favour/support of web3), the resolution of these cases in itself has provided greater clarity and stability to the ecosystem.

D.R. Horton: Building a New Model – [Business Breakdowns, EP.154]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Ed Wachenheim, founder of Greenhaven Capital, discusses his experience in the homebuilding industry since the 1980s
  • Ed shares insights on the evolution of the homebuilding business model and his investment approach
  • Early investment in US Home led to a deep dive into the industry, identifying growth opportunities and the impact of market crises.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Burlington Stores: Improved Execution Of The Off-Price Model Providing A Competitive Edge? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the fourth quarter of 2023, Burlington Stores reported their total sales growth to be 9% which exceeded their initial guidance projections of 5% to 7%.
  • This was a result of better than expected comparative store sales, which increased by 2% against a guidance of “-2% to flat.” Contributing to this growth was the strong response of lower income customers, often referred to as “need a deal shoppers”, who favoured Burlington’s opening price points.
  • Furthermore, the company managed to tap into a slightly higher income consumer base, the trade-down shoppers, who showed positive responses to the recognizable brands offered in Burlington’s merchandise mix.

Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS) – Wednesday, Dec 13, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Cadence Design Systems, Inc. has achieved revenue growth, high profit margins, and a large customer base in the industry
  • Their focus on computational software for semiconductor and systems design has established them as a key player
  • Cadence provides tools that optimize performance, minimize power consumption, and shorten time to market, making them a crucial partner for semiconductor and systems companies

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief India: TVS Motor and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Fundamental Longs – TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa


Fundamental Longs – TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We screen our coverage universe for earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental longs.
  • Stocks discussed include TVS Motor (TVSL IN), Nestle India (NEST IN), and Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) 
  • TVSL EVs could surprise, NEST offers the right safety in the current environment, and for HONASA there is a possibility of turning around. 

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Daily Brief China: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Techn, Cathay Pacific Airways, Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial, Luckin Coffee, CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical-A, JD.com , Qyuns Therapeutics, Belle Fashion Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names
  • Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Benefited from a Growing Network
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]:Weak Sales in 1Q24 but Likely to Improve in 2Q24
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$481mn One-Way
  • JD.com Inc.: Market Share Expansion via Platform Ecosystem Improvements! – Key Drivers
  • Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Belle Fashion Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Improving Margins Playing Catch Up


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently expect three changes for the STAR 50 index in June 2024 but there are some questions marks over the names leading the race to become ADDs.

Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation

By Neil Glynn

  • 2023 results came in broadly in line with expectations but included a concerning step up in ex-fuel unit cost inflation.
  • We cut our 2024 EBITDAR by 10% to HK$22.2bn, which drives net income down 21% to HK$6.6bn, leaving us well below consensus.
  • We revisit Cathay’s margin generation problems from the last cycle, illustrating structural problems which require structural solutions.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Benefited from a Growing Network

By Clarence Chu

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (AJI HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (Auntea) is a freshly-made beverage producer.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$37) TP Change]:Weak Sales in 1Q24 but Likely to Improve in 2Q24

By Eric Wen

  • We cut Luckin Coffee’s 1Q24 revenue estimate by 3% to RMB7.9bn with 79% yoy and cut non-GAAP net income estimate by 42% to RMB318mn due to (1) weak sales;
  • We expect 2Q24 to be the turning point for earnings due to (1) sales improving with weather warm-up (2) ASP rebound from easing competition 
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating but lower TP by US$4 to US$37 to factor in the temporary near-term weak sale.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends

By Mohshin Aziz

  • FY23 net profit of HKD9.1b, easily beating the consensus forecast of HKD8.5b, and announced a surprise dividend, the first since 2019, signally pandemic effects are over 
  • Perfect execution from the team, leveraging on a strong market 
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+10% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE. We will update more after tuning in the 2 pm analyst briefing 

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$481mn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs in the June 2024 index rebal event.

JD.com Inc.: Market Share Expansion via Platform Ecosystem Improvements! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • JD.com’s latest earnings showed a strong commitment to growth, navigating a mix of macro recoveries, seasonality factors and strategic refocus.
  • They delivered a growth in net revenues by 4% and recorded a non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders of RMB 8.4 billion.
  • Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short term investments totaled RMB 198 billion.

Pre-IPO Qyuns Therapeutics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The biggest concern here is the uncertain commercialization outlook of Qyuns’s pipeline, mainly due to both industry factors in the field of autoimmune and allergic diseases and Qyuns’s own problems.
  • Qyuns is overvalued. There’re rumors that Qyuns was “not popular” in primary market when fundraising, perhaps due to Dr. Yu Guoliang’s past unsuccessful experience which made investors suffered losses before.
  • By reducing the size of IPO to maintain high share price, this IPO may “look successful”.Investors can seize this opportunity to take profits in time, but long-term hold isn’t recommended.

Belle Fashion Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates

By Sumeet Singh

  • Belle Fashion (BF) aims to raise up to US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company recently refiled its application proof after a gap of two years.
  • As per F&S, it was the largest player in China’s fashion footwear market with a 12.3% market share, based on 2022 retail sales.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance based on its earlier filings in 2022. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Improving Margins Playing Catch Up

By Clarence Chu

  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (AJI HK) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (Auntea) is a freshly-made beverage producer.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Japan: Roland DG Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Duskin Co Ltd, J Trust Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Roland DG (6789 JP): Brother (6448 JP)’s Unexpected Competing Hostile Offer
  • Roland DG (6789) – Brother (6448) Launches Hostile Overbid to Taiyo MBO – You Love To See It
  • Will Parent Company Valuations Remain Undervalued Until the Parent-Subsidiary Listing Is Dissolved?
  • Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • J Trust (8508): Full-Year FY12/23 Update


Roland DG (6789 JP): Brother (6448 JP)’s Unexpected Competing Hostile Offer

By Arun George

  • Brother Industries (6448 JP) has disclosed an unexpected competing hostile offer for Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) at JPY5,200 per share, a marginal 3.3% premium to the Taiyo-sponsored MBO (JPY5,035).
  • Unlike the Taiyo offer, the Brother offer is pre-conditioned on regulatory approvals and has a proposed start date of mid-May. The Board is evaluating the Brother offer. 
  • The Board’s three options with declining probability are to ask Taiyo for a bump, continue to recommend an unchanged Taiyo offer or recommend the Brother offer. 

Roland DG (6789) – Brother (6448) Launches Hostile Overbid to Taiyo MBO – You Love To See It

By Travis Lundy

  • A month ago, Engagement Investor Taiyo Pacific Partners launched an MBO on Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) after having done a takeover of their former sub years ago.
  • I said it was too cheap. Machinery company Brother Industries (6448 JP) has decided the same, and has announced a hostile/unsolicited overbid 3.3% higher. Tender to start in May. Fun!!!
  • This will almost certainly get bid even higher as people would expect the MBO bidders won’t simply give up. More below.

Will Parent Company Valuations Remain Undervalued Until the Parent-Subsidiary Listing Is Dissolved?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s true that the difference in profit margins between a listed subsidiary that focuses on specific business and a parent company that has different businesses is the difference in valuations. 
  • It will be difficult for a parent company to reverse the valuations of its subsidiaries until the parent company dissolves the parent-subsidiary listing and increases its own profit margins.
  • With respect to corporate governance practices, companies with no major shareholders are included with relatively higher corporate governance scores, but this isn’t as significant difference as it tends to be.

Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Duskin Co Ltd (4665 JP) operates a Dust Control business where it rents mops and mats to residential and commercial customers through franchisees.
  • In FY03/23, Duskin posted revenue of JPY170.5bn, operating profit of JPY8.6bn, recurring profit of JPY11.4bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY7.2bn.
  • Duskin Co., Ltd. announced the cancellation of a portion of its treasury stock.

J Trust (8508): Full-Year FY12/23 Update

By Shared Research

  • J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP) is a financial services group operating banking and finance businesses in Asia. 
  • In FY12/23, the company reported full-year consolidated operating revenue of JPY114.3bn, operating profit of JPY8.1bn, pre-tax profit of JPY9.8bn, and profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY16.3bn.
  • On February 13, 2024, J Trust Co., Ltd. announced it has resolved on matters concerning the repurchase and cancellation of own shares.

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Most Read: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Woori Financial Group , Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, MS&AD Insurance, Roland DG Corp, Singtel, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Techn and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity
  • Roland DG (6789) – Tender Offer by Taiyo Partners – Nice Premium But Too Cheap
  • Block Deal Sale of 1.7% Stake of Woori Financial by IMM Private Equity
  • New Information on Korea Value-Up Index Scoring System & Constituent Weighting
  • MS&AD Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell
  • StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish
  • Roland DG (6789 JP): Brother (6448 JP)’s Unexpected Competing Hostile Offer
  • Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names
  • Roland DG (6789) – Brother (6448) Launches Hostile Overbid to Taiyo MBO – You Love To See It


Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity

By Travis Lundy

  • In late February, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.
  • I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.
  • Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn’t. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.

Roland DG (6789) – Tender Offer by Taiyo Partners – Nice Premium But Too Cheap

By Travis Lundy

  • Taiyo Pacific Partners took the original parent company (Roland Corp (7944 JP) of Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) private in 2014. It was re-listed in 2020. 
  • Roland DG is one of the world’s leading large format digital printer manufacturers. They also make some interesting medical devices and systemic tools, and 3D milling/printing/engraving/photo impact machines.
  • This TOB is at a 30.1% premium. Almost a 10yr high. But it is not expensive. And even if TPP has 20%, there is a LOT of float left over.

Block Deal Sale of 1.7% Stake of Woori Financial by IMM Private Equity

By Douglas Kim

  • IMM Private Equity announced that it is selling a 1.7% stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) in a block deal sale. 
  • The number of shares subject to sale is 12.56 million, or 177.7 billion won to 181.5 billion won.
  • Block deal sale discount range is reasonable, valuation multiples are low, and we expect continued positive capital inflow into stocks related to Corporate Value Up in the next 12 months. 

New Information on Korea Value-Up Index Scoring System & Constituent Weighting

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX considers a comprehensive change to the Value-up Index scoring system. Weightings emphasize ROE, PER, and FCF while reducing PBR weight.
  • KRX considers adopting scoring-based constituent weighting to prevent JPX Prime 150’s issues, but NPS opposes. Float market cap weighting like JPX Prime 150 is contemplated to address concerns.
  • Momentum trading in the Value-up initiative will favor low PER and high ROE stocks over low PBR. The semiconductor sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from float market cap-based weighting.

MS&AD Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.
  • MS&AD Insurance (8725 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.
  • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s previously announced buyback is now confirmed to be a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. But also an accelerated share repurchase.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Roland DG (6789 JP): Brother (6448 JP)’s Unexpected Competing Hostile Offer

By Arun George

  • Brother Industries (6448 JP) has disclosed an unexpected competing hostile offer for Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) at JPY5,200 per share, a marginal 3.3% premium to the Taiyo-sponsored MBO (JPY5,035).
  • Unlike the Taiyo offer, the Brother offer is pre-conditioned on regulatory approvals and has a proposed start date of mid-May. The Board is evaluating the Brother offer. 
  • The Board’s three options with declining probability are to ask Taiyo for a bump, continue to recommend an unchanged Taiyo offer or recommend the Brother offer. 

Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly (AFR), Singtel (ST SP) is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. 
  • SingTel quickly countered there is no impending deal; and “Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term.”
  • Optus’ EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently expect three changes for the STAR 50 index in June 2024 but there are some questions marks over the names leading the race to become ADDs.

Roland DG (6789) – Brother (6448) Launches Hostile Overbid to Taiyo MBO – You Love To See It

By Travis Lundy

  • A month ago, Engagement Investor Taiyo Pacific Partners launched an MBO on Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) after having done a takeover of their former sub years ago.
  • I said it was too cheap. Machinery company Brother Industries (6448 JP) has decided the same, and has announced a hostile/unsolicited overbid 3.3% higher. Tender to start in May. Fun!!!
  • This will almost certainly get bid even higher as people would expect the MBO bidders won’t simply give up. More below.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Techn, Cathay Pacific Airways, BQE Water , Qantm Intellectual Property, Duskin Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names
  • Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends
  • BQE: Profitable & Growing Micro-Cap in the Water Treatment Industry
  • Qantm Weighs Rouse’s And Adamantem’s Proposals
  • Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely But Some Question Marks Over Certain Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently expect three changes for the STAR 50 index in June 2024 but there are some questions marks over the names leading the race to become ADDs.

Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation

By Neil Glynn

  • 2023 results came in broadly in line with expectations but included a concerning step up in ex-fuel unit cost inflation.
  • We cut our 2024 EBITDAR by 10% to HK$22.2bn, which drives net income down 21% to HK$6.6bn, leaving us well below consensus.
  • We revisit Cathay’s margin generation problems from the last cycle, illustrating structural problems which require structural solutions.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): FY23 Better than Expected, and Surprise Dividends

By Mohshin Aziz

  • FY23 net profit of HKD9.1b, easily beating the consensus forecast of HKD8.5b, and announced a surprise dividend, the first since 2019, signally pandemic effects are over 
  • Perfect execution from the team, leveraging on a strong market 
  • Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+10% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE. We will update more after tuning in the 2 pm analyst briefing 

BQE: Profitable & Growing Micro-Cap in the Water Treatment Industry

By Atrium Research

  • BQE’s recurring revenue is growing as a percentage of total revenue, making its business more predictable and stable.
  • The Company has major tailwinds from increasing environmental regulations on water discharge as well as increasing mining capex.
  • BQE’s EBITDA margins have been steadily improving over the past five years due to its asset-light model, reaching 22% in 2023E. 

Qantm Weighs Rouse’s And Adamantem’s Proposals

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 27th Feb, Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU) announced a NBIO from UK-based Rouse International; but opted not to disclose price, DD, or even if this was a cash/scrip Offer.
  • Then on the 12th March, Qantm announced a NBIO from Adamantem Capital, by way of a Scheme, of $1.817/share in cash or with a scrip election of up to 50%
  • Qantm secured a trading halt yesterday morning, presumably to flesh out the best Offer for shareholders. Will IPH Ltd (IPH AU) throw its hat into the ring, again?

Duskin (4665): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Duskin Co Ltd (4665 JP) operates a Dust Control business where it rents mops and mats to residential and commercial customers through franchisees.
  • In FY03/23, Duskin posted revenue of JPY170.5bn, operating profit of JPY8.6bn, recurring profit of JPY11.4bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY7.2bn.
  • Duskin Co., Ltd. announced the cancellation of a portion of its treasury stock.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Roland DG Corp, Singtel, Microsoft Corp, Angel Robotics , Broadcom , Silergy Corp, Crowdstrike Holdings , MongoDB and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • New Information on Korea Value-Up Index Scoring System & Constituent Weighting
  • Roland DG (6789 JP): Brother (6448 JP)’s Unexpected Competing Hostile Offer
  • Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel
  • Roland DG (6789) – Brother (6448) Launches Hostile Overbid to Taiyo MBO – You Love To See It
  • Microsoft Chairman & CEO: AI, Chip Shortage, Empathy, and Poetry
  • Angel Robotics: IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
  • Broadcom Inc: A Stable Semiconductor & Software Ecosystem! – Key Drivers
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Expecting a Seasonal Decline In 1Q24F, and Likely Another Growth Year in 2024F.
  • CrowdStrike Holdings: Expansion Of Cloud Security With Flow Security Acquisition & 6 Key Growth Drivers – Financial Forecasts
  • MongoDB Inc.: Growing Interest and Demand for AI Applications Can Revolutionize Growth? – Key Drivers


New Information on Korea Value-Up Index Scoring System & Constituent Weighting

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX considers a comprehensive change to the Value-up Index scoring system. Weightings emphasize ROE, PER, and FCF while reducing PBR weight.
  • KRX considers adopting scoring-based constituent weighting to prevent JPX Prime 150’s issues, but NPS opposes. Float market cap weighting like JPX Prime 150 is contemplated to address concerns.
  • Momentum trading in the Value-up initiative will favor low PER and high ROE stocks over low PBR. The semiconductor sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from float market cap-based weighting.

Roland DG (6789 JP): Brother (6448 JP)’s Unexpected Competing Hostile Offer

By Arun George

  • Brother Industries (6448 JP) has disclosed an unexpected competing hostile offer for Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) at JPY5,200 per share, a marginal 3.3% premium to the Taiyo-sponsored MBO (JPY5,035).
  • Unlike the Taiyo offer, the Brother offer is pre-conditioned on regulatory approvals and has a proposed start date of mid-May. The Board is evaluating the Brother offer. 
  • The Board’s three options with declining probability are to ask Taiyo for a bump, continue to recommend an unchanged Taiyo offer or recommend the Brother offer. 

Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly (AFR), Singtel (ST SP) is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. 
  • SingTel quickly countered there is no impending deal; and “Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term.”
  • Optus’ EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.

Roland DG (6789) – Brother (6448) Launches Hostile Overbid to Taiyo MBO – You Love To See It

By Travis Lundy

  • A month ago, Engagement Investor Taiyo Pacific Partners launched an MBO on Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) after having done a takeover of their former sub years ago.
  • I said it was too cheap. Machinery company Brother Industries (6448 JP) has decided the same, and has announced a hostile/unsolicited overbid 3.3% higher. Tender to start in May. Fun!!!
  • This will almost certainly get bid even higher as people would expect the MBO bidders won’t simply give up. More below.

Microsoft Chairman & CEO: AI, Chip Shortage, Empathy, and Poetry

By In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

  • The speaker reflects on the excitement and nervousness of facing a new platform shift in technology and the need for continual innovation
  • They consider the broader economic impact of technological advancements, like AI, and the potential for breakthroughs in various industries
  • The decision to partner with OpenAI was driven by Microsoft’s history of seeking out ambitious technology innovators to collaborate with, even when the outcome is uncertain.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Angel Robotics: IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Angel Robotics reported exceptional IPO bookbuilding results. Angel Robotics’ IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 33% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • A total of 2,067 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 1,157 to 1. Angel Robotics will start trading on 26 March 2024. 
  • We remain positive on Angel Robotics. There is likely to be a sharp overshooting of its share price relative to its intrinsic value on the first day of trading. 

Broadcom Inc: A Stable Semiconductor & Software Ecosystem! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Broadcom reported consolidated net revenue of $12 billion, a 34% increase year-on-year, with semiconductor solutions contributing $7.4 billion, up 4% from the previous year.
  • Infrastructure software revenue saw a significant increase of 153% year-on-year, totaling $4.6 billion.
  • These improvements are due in part to the contribution from VMware, which has resulted in a sequential jump in revenue by 132%.

Silergy (6415.TT): Expecting a Seasonal Decline In 1Q24F, and Likely Another Growth Year in 2024F.

By Patrick Liao

  • The short-term recovery momentum observed in China and consumer markets.
  • The Gen 3 in 4Q23 accounts for about 50% of the production, expected to increase to around 60-70% in 4Q24F.
  • Expecting to improve quarter by quarter after reaching the bottom in 1Q24F, and the growth is expected to recover to around 20%+ YoY in 2024F.

CrowdStrike Holdings: Expansion Of Cloud Security With Flow Security Acquisition & 6 Key Growth Drivers – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., a leader in the cybersecurity sector, reported an impressive fourth quarter and fiscal year for 2024 during its latest earnings conference call.
  • The call highlighted several positive aspects of the company’s performance such as a record net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $282 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 27%.
  • Furthermore, the company achieved a record operating margin of 25%, an improvement of 10 percentage points when compared to the previous year.

MongoDB Inc.: Growing Interest and Demand for AI Applications Can Revolutionize Growth? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • MongoDB reported robust Q4 results, with revenues reaching $458 million, marking a 27% YoY increase and exceeding the high end of the company’s guidance.
  • MongoDB’s Atlas product line grew by 34% YoY, accounting for 68% of the company’s total revenue.
  • The company also reported a healthy business quarter, owing much of this success to acquiring new workloads from existing Atlas customers.

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