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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Naspers , Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr, Carvana , Carnival Corp, Migao Group Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • NPN X PRX: Discounts Continue to Come Under Pressure
  • Toyota Motors: Investing In Innovation For The Future Of Mobility! – Key Drivers
  • Carvana Co (CVNA) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023
  • Carnival Corporation: Are its deleveraging and refinancing efforts successful? – Key Drivers
  • Migao Group IPO – Last Listing Didn’t Do Well, This One Might Struggle Too
  • Is the Emission Data of a Company that Doesn’t Disclose in Annual Securities Report Reliable?


NPN X PRX: Discounts Continue to Come Under Pressure

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Naspers and Prosus continue to come under pressure relative to their underlying holdings.
  • Since our last update on the 1st of March, Naspers’ look through discount has widened by 1.6 percentage points to 42%. 
  • Naspers’ discount to Prosus’ market value has widened notably by 2.1 percentage points to 11.3%. Prosus’ discount is only 30bps wider and is trading at 35.4%.

Toyota Motors: Investing In Innovation For The Future Of Mobility! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Toyota Motor Corporation continues to deliver robust financial performance despite a myriad of challenges.
  • In the fiscal year 2024 second-quarter results, the Japanese automotive giant reported an operating income of JPY 2,559.2 billion.
  • This was a significant increase compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Carvana Co (CVNA) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Carvana has seen a big increase in its stock price despite concerns over bankruptcy that did not come to fruition
  • The company has advantages in unit economics and is well-positioned to gain market share in the auto retail industry
  • Carvana offers competitive pricing, quality, convenience, and selection, making it an attractive option for customers and investors alike

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Carnival Corporation: Are its deleveraging and refinancing efforts successful? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Carnival Corporation’s latest earnings suggest an optimistic outlook for the company as it reports setting records in all four quarters of 2023, with revenues, booking levels, and customer deposits seeing an all-time high.
  • Encouragingly, both North American and European brand occupancy levels exceeded 101% in Q4, and per diems for these brands showed significant increases over 2019.
  • The company’s performance enabled it to surpass high cost inflation over the past four years, delivering per unit Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) that outpaced 2019 levels when excluding fuel and currency fluctuations.

Migao Group IPO – Last Listing Didn’t Do Well, This One Might Struggle Too

By Clarence Chu

  • Migao Group Holdings (9879 HK) is looking to raise up to US$124m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Migao Group (Migao) is a vertically-integrated national potash fertilizer company in China.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance and share our thoughts on valuation.

Is the Emission Data of a Company that Doesn’t Disclose in Annual Securities Report Reliable?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Corporate Governance Code requires disclosure based on TCFD, and an ISSB-based disclosure system will be discussed in Japan. While interest in disclosing climate change-related information is growing, disclosure hasn’t progressed.
  • In the TSE survey, only one-tenth of the companies that listed Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions in their integrated reports disclosed them in their annual reports.
  • If a company can’t disclose Scope 1/Scope 2 in its annual securities report, there’s concern that the company may have challenges in data collection and risk delaying management decisions.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 8th): ANZ and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 8th): ANZ, BHP, IDP Education, Woodside Energy, Macquarie, CSL


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 8th): ANZ, BHP, IDP Education, Woodside Energy, Macquarie, CSL

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 8th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, BHP, IDP Education, Woodside Energy, Macquarie, CSL, Aristocrat Leisu.

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Daily Brief ECM: Astera Labs IPO Preview and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Astera Labs IPO Preview
  • Qunabox Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Astera Labs IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share. 
  • Founded in 2017, Astera Labs is a fabless semiconductor company headquartered in Silicon Valley. The company designs and sells semiconductor technology, but the production is outsourced.
  • Astera Labs’ major competitors include Montage Technology (688008 CH), Parade Technologies (4966 TT), Broadcom (AVGO US), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO US), and Marvell Technology (MRVL US).

Qunabox Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Qunabox Group Limited (QUNA HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is Haitong.
  • Qunabox Group Limited (Qunabox) is a marketing service provider in China, focusing on outdoor marketing for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).
  • As per CIC, the firm was the fifth largest FMCG outdoor marketing service provider in China in terms of 2022 sales, with a market share of 0.9%.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Inflation Print Hotter than Expected…again and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Inflation Print Hotter than Expected…again
  • Funds Pour Into Chinese AI Startups Challenging OpenAI’s Sora in Video Generation


Ohayo Japan | Inflation Print Hotter than Expected…again

By Mark Chadwick

  • US Stocks declined, halting a 3-day winning streak, as U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, driving Treasury yields higher
  • Feb’s Producer Price Index rose 0.6% from last month, higher than market expecations of 0.3%. Oil prices rallied again on IEA warning that supplies would lag this year
  • U.S. President Joe Biden expressed his desire that steelmaker U.S. Steel remains American-owned

Funds Pour Into Chinese AI Startups Challenging OpenAI’s Sora in Video Generation

By Caixin Global

  • Venture capital investors are pouring hundreds of millions of yuan into China’s burgeoning video generation startups, betting on their potential in the artificial intelligence race to rival OpenAI’s text-to-video model Sora.
  • This week, two leading Chinese generative AI startups announced the successful closure of their latest funding rounds, with each securing more than 100 million yuan ($14 million).
  • Both aim to catch up with Sora in the coming months.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, China Vanke


Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land, China Vanke

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Outsourcing (2427) – The OTHER Arb – That One Neat Trick And Its Weird Risks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427) – The OTHER Arb – That One Neat Trick And Its Weird Risks
  • JSR (4185) Tender May Start Next Week
  • JSR Corporation (4185 JP): SUNY RF Responds as JIC Tender Rumoured for a 19 Mar Start
  • EQD | NIFTY Down: Where to BUY WEEKLY
  • Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?


Outsourcing (2427) – The OTHER Arb – That One Neat Trick And Its Weird Risks

By Travis Lundy

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has been an “interesting” risk arb situation. It was launched as a Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low-Priced MBO. Some bumps after launch turned out to be BAU.
  • The stock has not traded above terms since early on in the trade. I expect people are happy to get out. But there is ANOTHER ARB to do here.
  • The OTHER ARB is something quite particular to high float, low activism risk arb trades. In some ways better than the traditional arb, but it has some risks.

JSR (4185) Tender May Start Next Week

By Travis Lundy

  • Just out this AM, an article in Bloomberg (J) says “people familiar with the matter” suggest the Tender Offer could be launched as early as 19 March. 
  • The language regarding the nature of the China regulatory “approval” is different than recent media articles, but they are in the same vein. 
  • Original and updated data, information, grids, etc are shown below. 

JSR Corporation (4185 JP): SUNY RF Responds as JIC Tender Rumoured for a 19 Mar Start

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that JIC will start the JSR Corp (4185 JP) tender as early as 19 March. Separately, SUNY RF filed a response to Inpria/JSR’s 6 March filing last night.
  • My reading of JSR and SUNY RF’s filings suggests that the Court is unlikely to conclude that SUNY RF’s lawsuit will be harmed if JIC proceeds with the tender offer.
  • JIC seems comfortable taking on the litigation risk (if required). The key risk remains timing. For a late April payment, gross/annualised spread is 0.6%/4.0%.   

EQD | NIFTY Down: Where to BUY WEEKLY

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index this week suddenly stopped its rally and started to correct.
  • This week should close down and the next week may be also down, but if it is the odds are great for a LONG trade.
  • Re-Enter the rally at prices between 21800 and 21150, this week or the next.

Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 March, NPS announced that it has decided to vote against the re-appointment of the CEO Cho Won-tae as the executive director of Korean Air Lines.
  • It was also announced on 14 March that GS Retail purchased a 1% stake in Hanjin Kal. In addition, Korean Air Lines also purchased a 1.2% stake in GS Retail.
  • One of the growing probabilities of the changing shareholding structures is that KDB may be interested in selling its 10.6% stake in Hanjin Kal.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba, Tencent Continue to Tear Down Walls Between Their Meeting Platforms
  • Governance Under Scrutiny: RBI, SEBI Probe on JM Financial
  • [Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas
  • A&D Holon Holdings Co Ltd (7745) – Thursday, Dec 14, 2023
  • BEENOS (3328): Q1 FY09/24 Update
  • 1Q Follow-Up – Japan Business System (5036 JP)
  • MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside
  • PCA (9629): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • BBW: 4Q Review: Adding Value; Initiates Q Dividend; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT
  • AS ONE (7476): Acquisition of Treasury Shares Via After-Hours Trading And Retirement of The Shares


Alibaba, Tencent Continue to Tear Down Walls Between Their Meeting Platforms

By Caixin Global

  • Alibaba Group’s office messaging and meeting app DingTalk is allowing users of Tencent Holdings’ rival social media app WeChat to directly join any meeting initiated on DingTalk without first registering.
  • DingTalk users can now share a meeting link with WeChat users, who can enter the meeting within WeChat.
  • Previously, DingTalk required participants to download its meeting app and register.

Governance Under Scrutiny: RBI, SEBI Probe on JM Financial

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Recent RBI and SEBI actions unveil irregularities in JM Financial (JM IN) Products IPO financing, exposing risks in NBFC-led subscriptions.
  • Ensuring market integrity and investor protection, regulatory scrutiny highlights governance lapses, urging transparency and accountability.
  • Prompts investor caution, demanding rigorous scrutiny of financial intermediaries, and reinforcing the need for robust regulatory oversight.

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$31) Target Price Change]: Near Term Story Is Still the Americas

By Eric Wen

  • Miniso report C4Q23 revenue in-line/7.9% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI is 5.1%/10.5% higher than our estimate/consensus on strong overseas sales from North and Latin Americas. 
  • Company guided for soft operating margin thanks to robust new store openings, which we believe to be accretive to earnings in the long run
  • We maintain the stock as BUY and but cut TP by US$2 to US$31/ADS

A&D Holon Holdings Co Ltd (7745) – Thursday, Dec 14, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • A&D Holon Holdings is a Japanese precision instrument company specializing in industrial measuring, medical equipment, and semiconductor production
  • The company’s semiconductor division is driving high growth and profitability, with expected earnings growth of around 50% over the next two years
  • Despite strong prospects, A&D Holon Holdings is significantly undervalued, trading at low multiples on FY Mar-2024 estimates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


BEENOS (3328): Q1 FY09/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP) operates cross-border e-commerce websites that allow mainly individual users to buy and sell goods both in Japan and internationally over the Internet.
  • In FY09/23, BEENOS reported full-year consolidated revenue of JPY32.5bn, operating profit of JPY4.5bn, recurring profit of JPY4.1bn, and a net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY2.2bn.
  • BEENOS Inc. has announced changes in its consolidated subsidiaries (share transfer).

1Q Follow-Up – Japan Business System (5036 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In the previous 4Q follow-up report, we examined “Copilot NAVI,” a service released by JBS in November, which includes videos and summary materials as a guide for enterprise users, for Microsoft 365 Copilot, the AI tool embedded in Microsoft 365 applications, to bring efficient answers to users’ instructions and questions through a chat interface (which can be a daunting challenge).
  • JBS followed up in December with interactive workshops to experience Microsoft 365 Copilot before deployment.
  •  In this report, we examine JBS enterprise cloud security initiatives, which are a top priority for cloud IT systems managers.


MT/ Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Fourth Positive EPS, 99% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • In 4Q23, we believe total revenue will grow by 20% YoY and MT will have the fourth profitable quarter.
  • We believe Douyin will not threaten MT in the long run according to other competitors’ failure.
  • We believe EPS will reach RMB0.35 in 4Q23 and RMB2.23 in 2023.

PCA (9629): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Pca Corp (9629 JP) develops and sells corporate accounting software and other business systems for small and medium-sized companies.
  • Full-Year FY03/23 revenue was JPY13.0bn (-3.0% YoY) due to lower replacement demand for the PCA X series of products, support for which ended in December 2021.
  • PCA Corporation has announced changes to its dividend policy and revisions to its dividend forecast.

BBW: 4Q Review: Adding Value; Initiates Q Dividend; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $41 price target for Build-a-Bear, slightly raising our FY24 EPS and rolling out FY25 projections after the company reported basically in-line 4QFY23 (January) results and initiated a quarterly dividend program, with an initial quarterly payout of $0.20 per share.
  • We believe Build-A-Bear remains highly focused on shareholder value and the company is poised to register solid returns and upside as their experiential offerings continue to expand and resonate with their growing customer base; further, with net cash per share of over $3.10 (and no debt), a dividend yield of 2.7% and trading under 4.5X our FY25 EBITDA, we view the risk/reward in BBW as compelling, and we reiterate our Buy raring and $41 price target.

AS ONE (7476): Acquisition of Treasury Shares Via After-Hours Trading And Retirement of The Shares

By Shared Research

  • AS ONE Corporation (7476 JP) is a specialist trading company that uses a business model focused on catalog sales.
  • In FY03/23, sales were JPY91.4bn (+5.1% YoY), operating profit was JPY11.4bn (+22.0% YoY), recurring profit was JPY11.6bn (+21.6% YoY), and net income was JPY8.1bn (+12.6%YoY).
  • AS ONE Corporation announced the acquisition of treasury shares via after-hours trading (ToSTNeT-3) and retirement of the treasury shares.

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Daily Brief Macro: On A Slow Boat To China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • On A Slow Boat To China
  • Rotating EM Flows: From Japan to Emerging Asia
  • China Economics: Forget About Policy Change as Xi Sticks to His Guns
  • China Watch: MAJOR breakouts in several commodities. Is China buying again?
  • Are Penny Stocks Getting the Memestock Treatment?
  • The Bank of Japan Plays Footsie with the Market-Will They or Won’t They?
  • Gold – An Excellent Addition to Any Investment Portfolio!
  • CX Daily: Why China’s Efforts To Resolve Hidden Government Debt Could Fall Short
  • China’s Private Quant, Bond Funds Outperform Peers as Stock Market Falters


On A Slow Boat To China

By Alastair Newton

  • The National People’s Congress this month did not significantly improve China’s current economic situation.
  • The Congress confirmed Xi Jinping’s intent to prioritize his power over long-term economic strategies.
  • Xi Jinping’s actions suggest a focus more on personal power than on the economic health of the nation.

Rotating EM Flows: From Japan to Emerging Asia

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

  • Welcome to the Emerging Market Series, this week covering the rotating capital flows away from Japan and its significance for China and Emerging AsiaWatch a condensed version of the key findings from this article on video.
  • Recovering from the ‘lost decades’ Japanese equities have been out of favor and continuously underperforming global benchmarks.
  • For 2023 however, the Nikkei 225 actually outperformed the S&P 500, returning 28% vs. 24% respectively, and the euphoria around Japan returning to normalcy in terms of structural inflation, growth and its feasibility as an investment has continued into 2024 (Nikkei vs. SPX ≈ 15% vs. 8.5%). 

China Economics: Forget About Policy Change as Xi Sticks to His Guns

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The cancellation of the Chinese premier’s annual press conference is a tell-tale sign that economic policymaking is increasingly centralized around President Xi’s pet priorities.
  • This comes as the cyclical position remains vulnerable; the boosts from Lunar New Year activity will make February’s data look good but this is far from a well-grounded recovery.
  • The government’s work report prioritizes what it calls “quality growth”, but the policy confusion and damaged economic sentiment will inhibit a well-grounded recovery. 

China Watch: MAJOR breakouts in several commodities. Is China buying again?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Take aways: Low vol in commodities leading to no directional bets. Chinese smelters cut striking fear in the market. Chinese copper stock levels about to be drawn. The broad commodity complex looks increasingly bullish accordingly. The technical picture suddenly looks very bullish in the commodity landscape as Oil, Copper and Silver have broken higher over the past 24 hours with the broad BCOM index also breaking out of the bearish channel.
  • Is the sudden bullish price action a sign that the procyclical Chinese activity is back?
  • Chart 1: Oil is breaking HIGHERAs macro volatility has been grinding lower and lower and equites have gone higher and higher, being short volatility in commodities has been the only game in town.

Are Penny Stocks Getting the Memestock Treatment?

By Behind the Money

  • Penny stocks trading surge reminiscent of meme stock mania in 2021
  • Increase in trading volume and number of penny stock companies listed on public exchanges
  • Retail investors driving boom in trading penny stocks, companies may have potential but are not profitable yet

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


The Bank of Japan Plays Footsie with the Market-Will They or Won’t They?

By Rikki Malik

  • US economic data while surprising on the upside fails to buoy the USD vs the JPY
  • BOJ awaiting shunto talks for more evidence of a sustained move out of deflation
  • What are the implications for global markets if mass repatriation of Japanese capital

Gold – An Excellent Addition to Any Investment Portfolio!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Gold has realized an equity-like return over the last 20 years.
  • Gold has shown zero sensitivity to equity market declines, making it an excellent portfolio diversifier.
  • With the long-term outlook for bonds clouded (structurally lower yields and higher volatility), gold will likely become investors’ preferred equity hedge.

CX Daily: Why China’s Efforts To Resolve Hidden Government Debt Could Fall Short

By Caixin Global

  • Debt / In Depth: Why China’s efforts to resolve hidden government debt could fall short
  • PM 2.5 /: China’s air pollution rose last year amid post-pandemic economic recovery
  • Corruption /: Former policy bank executive caught in anti-corruption dragnet

China’s Private Quant, Bond Funds Outperform Peers as Stock Market Falters

By Caixin Global

  • China’s private fund sector was put through the ringer in 2023, with a shaky economic recovery and relentless stock market volatility testing portfolio managers’ resolve.
  • During the third straight year of rout in the Chinese stock market, private bond funds’ returns outperformed their stock-focused peers.
  • Another bright spot was quantitative investment funds.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanjin KAL Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?


Another Brewing Fight for the Controlling Shareholding of Hanjin Kal?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 March, NPS announced that it has decided to vote against the re-appointment of the CEO Cho Won-tae as the executive director of Korean Air Lines.
  • It was also announced on 14 March that GS Retail purchased a 1% stake in Hanjin Kal. In addition, Korean Air Lines also purchased a 1.2% stake in GS Retail.
  • One of the growing probabilities of the changing shareholding structures is that KDB may be interested in selling its 10.6% stake in Hanjin Kal.

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Daily Brief United States: Astera Labs , Build A Bear Workshop, SurgePays , Dollar General, VAALCO Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Astera Labs IPO Preview
  • BBW: 4Q Review: Adding Value; Initiates Q Dividend; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT
  • SurgePays, Inc. – Reports Mixed 4Q Results in Uncertain Market
  • Dollar General 4Q’23 Update
  • VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY): Increasing Reserves.


Astera Labs IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Astera Labs (ALAB US) is scheduled to debut its IPO on 20 March. The company is offering 17.8 million shares at a price of $27 to $30 per share. 
  • Founded in 2017, Astera Labs is a fabless semiconductor company headquartered in Silicon Valley. The company designs and sells semiconductor technology, but the production is outsourced.
  • Astera Labs’ major competitors include Montage Technology (688008 CH), Parade Technologies (4966 TT), Broadcom (AVGO US), Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO US), and Marvell Technology (MRVL US).

BBW: 4Q Review: Adding Value; Initiates Q Dividend; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $41 price target for Build-a-Bear, slightly raising our FY24 EPS and rolling out FY25 projections after the company reported basically in-line 4QFY23 (January) results and initiated a quarterly dividend program, with an initial quarterly payout of $0.20 per share.
  • We believe Build-A-Bear remains highly focused on shareholder value and the company is poised to register solid returns and upside as their experiential offerings continue to expand and resonate with their growing customer base; further, with net cash per share of over $3.10 (and no debt), a dividend yield of 2.7% and trading under 4.5X our FY25 EBITDA, we view the risk/reward in BBW as compelling, and we reiterate our Buy raring and $41 price target.

SurgePays, Inc. – Reports Mixed 4Q Results in Uncertain Market

By Water Tower Research

  • After the close on Tuesday, SurgePays reported mixed 4Q23 results.
  • Total revenue of $32.3 million exceeded our $32.1 million estimate but was slightly below consensus of $33.6 million.
  • However, EBITDA of $3.4 million was below both our estimate and consensus of $6.5 million and $6.9 million, respectively.

Dollar General 4Q’23 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Dollar General (DG)’s stock had an interesting reaction to today’s earnings.
  • First it went up by ~6% in pre-market, but then ended the day 5% down.
  • Despite the somewhat bizarre stock price reaction throughout the day, I think the worst days are likely behind DG.

VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY): Increasing Reserves.

By Auctus Advisors

  • VAALCO’s YE23 cash position of US$121 mm and FY23 WI production of 23,946 boe/d were in line with previous indications.
  • The company held 77.3 mmboe WI 2P reserves at YE23 including 15.8 mmbbl in Gabon, 24.5 mmbbl in Egypt, 18.6 mmboe in Canada and 18.5 mmboe in EG. This represents a 1% increase vs YE23 as VAALCO has more than replaced its FY23 production given the strong performance of the producing assets in 2023.
  • The FY24 capex budget is US$70-90 mm (we forecasted US$138 mm) as only US$30-40 mm will be spent in Gabon (on long lead items) with a larger than previously expected drilling programme starting in 2025.

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