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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NEC Corp, Tencent, Singtel, Wipro Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • NEC (6701 JP): Generative AI Is the Spark, Not the Driver
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning
  • Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?


NEC (6701 JP): Generative AI Is the Spark, Not the Driver

By Scott Foster

  • The P/E ratio has risen above 20x this fiscal year from no more than 13x in the previous four years, reflecting successful restructuring and investor enthusiasm for AI. 
  • Profit margins are rising, but remain moderate in absolute terms with room for further improvement. The shares may consolidate, but they do not look overvalued.
  • Management is aiming for generative AI sales of ¥50 billion in three years time. This is less than 2% of total sales, but a positive indicator for NEC’s software business.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were up small on the week. The spivvier the better. HK was up better, especially among the liquid names.
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK$21.4bn in the fourth post-holiday week vs +HK$17bn the week before. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.
  • The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was a net buy the second week in a row. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning

By David Blennerhassett


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • As things stand, there could be one index change for the SENSEX index but there is room for these names to change during the remainder of the reference period.
  • Separately, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and six ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.

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Daily Brief United States: Astera Labs , Ethereum, Allegion Plc, Arthur J Gallagher & Co, Bumble, Carvana , Oracle Corp, Alcoa , United Airlines Holdings, Western Digital and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Astera Labs IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Crypto Moves #19 – Liquid Staking Protocols Are Ethereum’s Saver
  • Allegion Plc (ALLE) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023
  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: A Story Of Strategic Expansion Through Acquiring Associated Insurance Services! – Key Drivers
  • Bumble Inc.: Addressing Existing Product Limitations Through AI & Other Innovations! – Key Drivers
  • Carvana Co (CVNA) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023
  • Oracle Corporation: Will The Expansion In Application Subscription Revenues Last? – Major Drivers
  • Alcoa Corporation: Strategic Acquisition of Alumina Marks a Milestone in the Metals Industry! – Key Drivers
  • United Airlines: Are The Recent Delays & Safety Concerns A Major Factor That Could Slow Them Down? – Key Drivers
  • Peloton Interactive: What Is The Impact Of The Recent TikTok & Lululemon Partnerships – Major Drivers


Astera Labs IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation is market cap of US$5.4 billion or target price of US$35.9 per share, which is 20% higher than high end of the IPO price range (US$30).
  • We estimate Astera Labs (ALAB US) to generate revenue of $221.3 million (up 91.1% YoY) in 2024 and $304.5 million (up 37.5% YoY) in 2025.
  • Many investors are willing to take extra risk to invest in companies such as Astera Labs that could generate strong sales growth amid rush to aggressively expand AI capabilities.

Crypto Moves #19 – Liquid Staking Protocols Are Ethereum’s Saver

By Mads Eberhardt

  • It has been exactly eighteen months since Ethereum made the big switch from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake, an event widely known as the Merge.
  • In simple terms, after the Merge, the responsibility for verifying transactions and proposing new blocks on the Ethereum network shifted from miners to holders, provided they choose to become stakers.
  • To maintain the blockchain as stakers, holders lock up their Ether in the network.

Allegion Plc (ALLE) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • VIC pitch remains relevant as Allegion is undervalued compared to historical P/E ratio
  • Majority of sales from resilient aftermarket and institutional sectors make Allegion’s business more stable than perceived
  • Strong presence in North America provides solid revenue base with high margins, presenting a strong investment opportunity for long-term growth and value appreciation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: A Story Of Strategic Expansion Through Acquiring Associated Insurance Services! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
  • reported strong fourth quarter results for 2023 with key financial metrics in line with its December IR day.
  • Revenue growth for the Brokerage and Risk Management segments was 20% with 8.1% organic growth, a figure that the company corrects to 9.4% controlling for accounting adjustments and large life case timing.

Bumble Inc.: Addressing Existing Product Limitations Through AI & Other Innovations! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bumble Inc.
  • has reported an increase of 13% in its Q4 2023 revenue to $274 million, meeting its financial projections.
  • This growth was propelled by a 16% rise in paying users, with contributions from both the Bumble and Badoo apps.

Carvana Co (CVNA) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Carvana has seen a big increase in its stock price despite concerns over bankruptcy that did not come to fruition
  • The company has advantages in unit economics and is well-positioned to gain market share in the auto retail industry
  • Carvana offers competitive pricing, quality, convenience, and selection, making it an attractive option for customers and investors alike

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Oracle Corporation: Will The Expansion In Application Subscription Revenues Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Oracle Corporation’s Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings presented a mixed but predominantly positive picture.
  • Chief Executive Officer Safra Catz noted excellent overall quarterly performance, with quarterly revenue meeting expectations and earnings per share exceeding it by $0.02.
  • The company’s infrastructure cloud business (OCI) was singled out for significant praise, as it has become the main factor accelerating the overall revenue growth rate, even outpacing their cloud competitors.

Alcoa Corporation: Strategic Acquisition of Alumina Marks a Milestone in the Metals Industry! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alcoa highlighted improvement in safety and operational performance.
  • The company achieved production records at its three smelters in Canada and one in Norway, signalling strong operational capabilities and efficiency.
  • Improvements have been credited to a clear focus on values including integrity, operational excellence, and care for people.

United Airlines: Are The Recent Delays & Safety Concerns A Major Factor That Could Slow Them Down? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • During the latest fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings for United Airlines Holdings, the management team expressed positive sentiments regarding operational trends and financial performance, despite multiple headwinds at the global level.
  • The airline’s 2023 performance was framed as a clear demonstration of its United Next plan’s effectiveness, buoied by diversified revenue streams and robust operational metrics.
  • United Airlines posted full-year EPS (earnings per share) above $10, meeting its initial United target range.

Peloton Interactive: What Is The Impact Of The Recent TikTok & Lululemon Partnerships – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Peloton Interactive, Inc., the manufacturer and seller of indoor exercise bicycles and treadmills, released its Q2 2024 result addressing several impactful issues regarding market penetration and sustainability.
  • During the earnings, several overarching themes were pointed out, such as Tread and Tread+ growth, the strengthening of the all-important second leg to support growth, and the area’s substantial rise in renewal growth.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief China: Sino Land Co, Hang Seng Index, Kanzhun , Migao Group Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (15 Mar 2024): Sino Land, Hysan, FE Consortium, Champion REIT, Dongyue
  • EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?
  • [Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$22) Rating Change]: Market Share Gain Ahead of Purported Recovery
  • Migao Group IPO – Last Listing Didn’t Do Well, This One Might Struggle Too


HK CEO & Director Dealings (15 Mar 2024): Sino Land, Hysan, FE Consortium, Champion REIT, Dongyue

By David Blennerhassett


EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index is rallying and could co higher this week but it seems there isn’t much room to go really higher.
  • A good target to cover your LONG holdings would be 17500, for this coming week and/or the following week.
  • A pullback this coming week is also possible, so it’s not sure the index can rally more from here, or at least not without some correction first.

[Kanzhun Ltd. (BZ US, BUY, TP US$22) Rating Change]: Market Share Gain Ahead of Purported Recovery

By Eric Wen

  • BZ reported 4Q23 revenue in-line/2.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 3.5%/21.9%, mainly attributable to effective cost control measures. 
  • We think the competitive advantages over peers grand BZ privilege to enjoy the early sign of hiring demand recovery, whereas overall China job market remains lackluster in early 2024.
  • We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and rise TP by US$7.5 to US$22/ADS.

Migao Group IPO – Last Listing Didn’t Do Well, This One Might Struggle Too

By Clarence Chu

  • Migao Group Holdings (9879 HK) is looking to raise up to US$124m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Migao Group (Migao) is a vertically-integrated national potash fertilizer company in China.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance and share our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief Japan: Cyber Security Cloud Inc, Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr, Nihon Denkei, Will Group Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Cyber Security Cloud (4493): Full-Year FY12/23 Update
  • Toyota Motors: Investing In Innovation For The Future Of Mobility! – Key Drivers
  • Nihon Denkei (9908): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • 3Q Follow-Up – WILL GROUP (6089 JP)
  • Is the Emission Data of a Company that Doesn’t Disclose in Annual Securities Report Reliable?


Cyber Security Cloud (4493): Full-Year FY12/23 Update

By Shared Research

  • Cyber Security Cloud Inc (4493 JP) provides customers with subscription services based on software it develops in-house.
  • In FY12/23, CSC reported revenue of JPY3.1bn, operating profit of JPY550mn, recurring profit of JPY560mn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY427mn.
  • Cyber Security Cloud, Inc. announced the acquisition of its own shares

Toyota Motors: Investing In Innovation For The Future Of Mobility! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Toyota Motor Corporation continues to deliver robust financial performance despite a myriad of challenges.
  • In the fiscal year 2024 second-quarter results, the Japanese automotive giant reported an operating income of JPY 2,559.2 billion.
  • This was a significant increase compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Nihon Denkei (9908): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Established in 1950, Nihon Denkei (9908 JP) is an independent specialized trading company with a leading domestic share, by sales, in electronic measuring instruments (source: Nihon Denkei).
  • In FY03/23, sales were JPY104.8bn (+14.1% YoY), operating profit was JPY3.7bn (+40.4% YoY), and recurring profit was JPY4.0bn (+31.9% YoY).
  • On June 24, 2020, the company announced the key elements of its medium-term plan, INNOVATION 2030.

3Q Follow-Up – WILL GROUP (6089 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • WILL GROUP announced cumulative 3Q FY24/3 consolidated financial results on February 7, and held a results briefing on February 19 hosted by President Yuichi Sumi.
  • This reports examines the details and progress of 3Q results relative to initial plan.
  • Then on February 22, WILL GROUP announced that it has decided to sell all shares in specified subsidiary for Startups, Inc. (7089 TSE Growth, specialized in HR services for venture growth businesses and startup companies), in which it holds the majority stake of 54.1% (1,925,400 shares) as of September 30, 2023.

Is the Emission Data of a Company that Doesn’t Disclose in Annual Securities Report Reliable?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Corporate Governance Code requires disclosure based on TCFD, and an ISSB-based disclosure system will be discussed in Japan. While interest in disclosing climate change-related information is growing, disclosure hasn’t progressed.
  • In the TSE survey, only one-tenth of the companies that listed Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions in their integrated reports disclosed them in their annual reports.
  • If a company can’t disclose Scope 1/Scope 2 in its annual securities report, there’s concern that the company may have challenges in data collection and risk delaying management decisions.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 15th): Aia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 15th): Aia, Swire Pacific, Kuaishou Technology


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 15th): Aia, Swire Pacific, Kuaishou Technology

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 15th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Dongyue (189 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).

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Daily Brief ESG: Is the Emission Data of a Company that Doesn’t Disclose in Annual Securities Report Reliable? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Is the Emission Data of a Company that Doesn’t Disclose in Annual Securities Report Reliable?


Is the Emission Data of a Company that Doesn’t Disclose in Annual Securities Report Reliable?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Corporate Governance Code requires disclosure based on TCFD, and an ISSB-based disclosure system will be discussed in Japan. While interest in disclosing climate change-related information is growing, disclosure hasn’t progressed.
  • In the TSE survey, only one-tenth of the companies that listed Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions in their integrated reports disclosed them in their annual reports.
  • If a company can’t disclose Scope 1/Scope 2 in its annual securities report, there’s concern that the company may have challenges in data collection and risk delaying management decisions.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 44 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 44
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 15/03/2024


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 44

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 118% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 23%

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 15/03/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Feasibility study as a first step to unlocking a mega green hydrogen project – The feasibility study for the green hydrogen “Project Nour” has now been presented to the government of Mauritania.
  • Chariot holds a 50% interest in the project and TotalEnergies is a partner.
  • Mauritania benefits from an ideal geography for wind and solar energy.

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Daily Brief ECM: Astera Labs IPO Valuation Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Astera Labs IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Migao Group IPO – Last Listing Didn’t Do Well, This One Might Struggle Too


Astera Labs IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation is market cap of US$5.4 billion or target price of US$35.9 per share, which is 20% higher than high end of the IPO price range (US$30).
  • We estimate Astera Labs (ALAB US) to generate revenue of $221.3 million (up 91.1% YoY) in 2024 and $304.5 million (up 37.5% YoY) in 2025.
  • Many investors are willing to take extra risk to invest in companies such as Astera Labs that could generate strong sales growth amid rush to aggressively expand AI capabilities.

Migao Group IPO – Last Listing Didn’t Do Well, This One Might Struggle Too

By Clarence Chu

  • Migao Group Holdings (9879 HK) is looking to raise up to US$124m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Migao Group (Migao) is a vertically-integrated national potash fertilizer company in China.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance and share our thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Toyota Motors: Investing In Innovation For The Future Of Mobility! – Key Drivers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Motors: Investing In Innovation For The Future Of Mobility! – Key Drivers
  • Cyber Security Cloud (4493): Full-Year FY12/23 Update
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! – Key Growth Catalysts
  • Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.
  • Allegion Plc (ALLE) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023
  • Nihon Denkei (9908): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • AstraZeneca PLC: Can The Amolyt Pharma Acquisition Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers
  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: A Story Of Strategic Expansion Through Acquiring Associated Insurance Services! – Key Drivers
  • Bumble Inc.: Addressing Existing Product Limitations Through AI & Other Innovations! – Key Drivers
  • Carvana Co (CVNA) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023


Toyota Motors: Investing In Innovation For The Future Of Mobility! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Toyota Motor Corporation continues to deliver robust financial performance despite a myriad of challenges.
  • In the fiscal year 2024 second-quarter results, the Japanese automotive giant reported an operating income of JPY 2,559.2 billion.
  • This was a significant increase compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Cyber Security Cloud (4493): Full-Year FY12/23 Update

By Shared Research

  • Cyber Security Cloud Inc (4493 JP) provides customers with subscription services based on software it develops in-house.
  • In FY12/23, CSC reported revenue of JPY3.1bn, operating profit of JPY550mn, recurring profit of JPY560mn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY427mn.
  • Cyber Security Cloud, Inc. announced the acquisition of its own shares

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Artificial Intelligence (AI) As The Future Technology Driver! – Key Growth Catalysts

By Baptista Research

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC)’s fourth quarter revenue increased 14.4% sequentially due to the robust ramp-up of its industry-leading 3-nanometer technology.
  • The gross margin, however decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 53% primarily due to margin dilution from 3-nanometer technology.
  • The operating margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.6%, slightly ahead of the company’s guidance.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Could Be the Recent Bottom, and 2Q24F Should Be an Upside 10% QoQ.

By Patrick Liao

  • We anticipate that the guidance upper limit for 1Q24F results may be reached.  
  • The outlook is expected to see approximately a 10% QoQ increase in 2Q24F.  
  • The recent stock market performance may reflect enthusiasm for Vanguard, despite temporary disregard for the name.

Allegion Plc (ALLE) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • VIC pitch remains relevant as Allegion is undervalued compared to historical P/E ratio
  • Majority of sales from resilient aftermarket and institutional sectors make Allegion’s business more stable than perceived
  • Strong presence in North America provides solid revenue base with high margins, presenting a strong investment opportunity for long-term growth and value appreciation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Nihon Denkei (9908): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Established in 1950, Nihon Denkei (9908 JP) is an independent specialized trading company with a leading domestic share, by sales, in electronic measuring instruments (source: Nihon Denkei).
  • In FY03/23, sales were JPY104.8bn (+14.1% YoY), operating profit was JPY3.7bn (+40.4% YoY), and recurring profit was JPY4.0bn (+31.9% YoY).
  • On June 24, 2020, the company announced the key elements of its medium-term plan, INNOVATION 2030.

AstraZeneca PLC: Can The Amolyt Pharma Acquisition Be A Game Changer? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AstraZeneca’s Fourth quarter and full-year ’23 earnings reflects strong performance.
  • Notably, the company achieved their decade-long target of $45 billion sales, demonstrating its consistent focus on long-term growth.
  • The company’s diverse commodity areas, ranging from oncology to rare diseases, all demonstrated strong growth in 2023, with the company’s profitability expected to increase because of this.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.: A Story Of Strategic Expansion Through Acquiring Associated Insurance Services! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
  • reported strong fourth quarter results for 2023 with key financial metrics in line with its December IR day.
  • Revenue growth for the Brokerage and Risk Management segments was 20% with 8.1% organic growth, a figure that the company corrects to 9.4% controlling for accounting adjustments and large life case timing.

Bumble Inc.: Addressing Existing Product Limitations Through AI & Other Innovations! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bumble Inc.
  • has reported an increase of 13% in its Q4 2023 revenue to $274 million, meeting its financial projections.
  • This growth was propelled by a 16% rise in paying users, with contributions from both the Bumble and Badoo apps.

Carvana Co (CVNA) – Friday, Dec 15, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Carvana has seen a big increase in its stock price despite concerns over bankruptcy that did not come to fruition
  • The company has advantages in unit economics and is well-positioned to gain market share in the auto retail industry
  • Carvana offers competitive pricing, quality, convenience, and selection, making it an attractive option for customers and investors alike

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK CEO & Director Dealings (15 Mar 2024): Sino Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (15 Mar 2024): Sino Land, Hysan, FE Consortium, Champion REIT, Dongyue
  • NPN X PRX: Discounts Continue to Come Under Pressure
  • JSE March Rebalance Day: Top Sells AGL, MNP & INP
  • EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?
  • KKR/Encavis AG: Voluntary Offer


HK CEO & Director Dealings (15 Mar 2024): Sino Land, Hysan, FE Consortium, Champion REIT, Dongyue

By David Blennerhassett


NPN X PRX: Discounts Continue to Come Under Pressure

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Naspers and Prosus continue to come under pressure relative to their underlying holdings.
  • Since our last update on the 1st of March, Naspers’ look through discount has widened by 1.6 percentage points to 42%. 
  • Naspers’ discount to Prosus’ market value has widened notably by 2.1 percentage points to 11.3%. Prosus’ discount is only 30bps wider and is trading at 35.4%.

JSE March Rebalance Day: Top Sells AGL, MNP & INP

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • We expect to see large volumes of AGL, MNP and INP to trade in the closing auction due to the index harmonisation.
  • Passive trackers and hedgers with exposure to vanilla indices will need to sell down their holdings to transition to the SWIX methodology.
  • The top buys include: NPN, FSR, SBK, GFI, CPI and PRX.

EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index is rallying and could co higher this week but it seems there isn’t much room to go really higher.
  • A good target to cover your LONG holdings would be 17500, for this coming week and/or the following week.
  • A pullback this coming week is also possible, so it’s not sure the index can rally more from here, or at least not without some correction first.

KKR/Encavis AG: Voluntary Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • KKR offers €17.50/share for Encavis AG (ECV GR), 53% premium, implied equity value of €2,818 million. This shows interest in renewables after the falls on the stock market in 2023-24.
  • The offer represents 12.7x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA and 32.4x Fwd P/E. On  a P/E basis, the offer seems fair vs. (depressed) comparables.
  • Given the current negative perception surrounding renewable energy companies, I think the shareholders are likely to tender at an attractive price. Spread is 3.77%/5.24% (gross/anualised, assuming closing by mid-December).

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