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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, MGM China Holdings


Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, MGM China Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: Trial Holdings IPO: Trading Debut and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Trial Holdings IPO: Trading Debut
  • Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) – Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?
  • Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside
  • Akeso Inc Placement – A Small One to Digest, Momentum Has Been Strong
  • Reddit IPO – Quick Thoughts on Valuation
  • Carote Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Jeil Machine & Solution IPO Valuation Analysis
  • MIXUE Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation
  • Aeromexico – Another Record Year in Prospect in 2024


Trial Holdings IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) – Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Akeso’s product sales grew rapidly in 2023, mainly driven by off-label use of AK104. Since AK104’s commercialization potential on other indications was “overdrawn” in advance, sales growth would slow afterwards. 
  • The key investment logic of Akeso is whether/how much its BsAb pipelines would grab shares from PD-1. The high valuation has somewhat priced in AK112’s successful head-to-head trial with pembrolizumab.
  • If AK112 does beat Keytruda, valuation will reach a new level. If AK112 fails in critical clinical trials, it would cast a shadow on the entire BsAb pipeline of Akeso.

Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 4Q results today. Both revenues and OP increased 7.1% and 42.0% YoY, however, both revenue and OP fell below consensus estimates.
  • The company also announced an increase to 2023 dividends and more than doublethe size of the company’s share buyback in 2024 compared to 2023.
  • We expect Internet VAS to grow at single-digits in 2024, however, high-margin new products to help boost margins in 2024.

Akeso Inc Placement – A Small One to Digest, Momentum Has Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) is looking to raise US$155m from its primary placement.
  • Proceeds from the deal would be geared towards R&D expenditure for its preclinical programs, expediting clinical trials, and towards commercializing its existing approved products.
  • Accounting for 3% of shares outstanding, and representing 5.7 days of its three month ADV, the deal would be a relatively small one for the firm to digest.

Reddit IPO – Quick Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Reddit (RDDT US) is looking to raise up to US$750m in its US IPO.
  • Reddit is an online social media platform where users are able to join communities, engage in conversations, research, exchange goods and services as well as create new communities.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we share our quick thoughts on valuation.

Carote Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Carote Ltd (CARO HK) is looking to raise around US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are BNP Paribas, and CMB International.
  • Carote is a distributor of kitchenware products. Expanding its lineup of products, the firm aims to meet its customers’ varied kitchen scenarios and enhance their culinary experience.
  • Initially engaged to provide original equipment manufacturing (OEM) overseas, the firm has since ventured into the online retail sector, introducing kitchenware products under its own brand name “CAROTE”.

Jeil Machine & Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Jeil M&S is target price of 24,354 won per share, which is 35% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • We estimate the Jeil M&S to generate sales of 279 billion won (up 94.9% YoY) and operating profit of 18.1 billion won (up 928% YoY).
  • Jeil M&S’s main products include mixing equipment for the rechargeable battery sector. Its major customers include Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, and Northvolt. 

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Initial Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance and undertaken a peer comparison. In this note, we provide our initial thoughts on valuation.

Aeromexico – Another Record Year in Prospect in 2024

By Neil Glynn

  • Aeromexico reported record profitability in 2023 and we expect another record in 2024.
  • Our deep dive on the competitive landscape suggests a benign outlook as Aeromexico does not face competitor capacity growth in 2024.
  • The US DOT’s tentative ruling that Delta and Aeromexico must terminate their JV is a meaningful negative from 4Q24 unless their appeal is successful.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: The Bigly March 2024 “Wednesday-Friday Trade” (Surprising Flows) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • The Bigly March 2024 “Wednesday-Friday Trade” (Surprising Flows)
  • Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM
  • IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Delisting and Special Dividend
  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible
  • Noteworthy Price Movements Associated with 1Q Ex-Dates Trading Setups
  • WT Micro GDR Early Look – Last Offering Had a Mixed Performance, This One Is Shaping up Better
  • Coforge QIP Early Look – Shares Have Corrected Since the Announcement, Last Deal Did Well


The Bigly March 2024 “Wednesday-Friday Trade” (Surprising Flows)

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
  • But there may be ¥1.0-1.2trln+ to buy on one day into the close later this month, then ad hoc buys of ¥630bn and index sells of ~¥600bn  2 days later.
  • Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. This year the Nikkei funding trade makes things more complicated. 

Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last month, a Cheng family vehicle with 24.06% of Giordano (709 HK), requisitioned an SGM to remove CEO Peter Lau, and install Colin Currie as CEO, plus three other NEDs/INEDs.
  • That SGM will be held on the 3rd April. The director resolutions – both the removal and appointments – are “ordinary”, requiring a simple majority vote. 
  • The outcome will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities will vote. So I dug a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, with some surprising results.  

IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Delisting and Special Dividend

By Arun George

  • On 9 February, IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) announced the disposal of most of its assets to symplr software. On 19 March, the antitrust condition was satisfied.
  • The consideration will be distributed to shareholders as a special dividend. The minimum and maximum special interim dividends are US$0.52 (HK$4.08) and US$0.55 (HK$4.30) per share.
  • The key condition is EGM shareholder approval. Due to the irrevocables from key shareholders, the EGM vote should comfortably pass. This is a done deal.

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
  • There could be up to five changes in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.

Noteworthy Price Movements Associated with 1Q Ex-Dates Trading Setups

By Sanghyun Park

  • Investors buying on February ex-dates, perhaps due to the Value-up factor, led to a successful strategy for local managers: buying before ex-date and selling at close, yielding positive results.
  • On March 19th, Kia Corp (000270 KS) diverged from February’s pattern. Notably, FINANCIAL INVESTMENT sold heavily on Kia’s ex-date, a deviation from their quiet February activity.
  • FINANCIAL INVESTMENT’s trend of liquidating positions held since last quarter, especially for dividends, gains momentum as March ends, possibly overshadowing February’s Value-up factor.

WT Micro GDR Early Look – Last Offering Had a Mixed Performance, This One Is Shaping up Better

By Clarence Chu

  • WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) is looking to raise up to US$444m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • WT Microelectronics recently announced its board’s resolution to issue between 68-85m new shares in the form of GDRs, with the use of proceeds geared towards purchasing of raw materials overseas.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.

Coforge QIP Early Look – Shares Have Corrected Since the Announcement, Last Deal Did Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Coforge (COFORGE IN) is looking to raise around US$386m in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).
  • In an announcement released on Saturday, Coforge had mentioned its board’s approval to raise up to INR32bn via a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 9.1%.
  • The deal would be a large one to digest at 14 days of three month ADV. That being said, the company’s last selldown did well.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tencent (700 HK): 4Q23 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK): 4Q23, Slower Growth, But Higher Margin, 37% Upside
  • NEC (6701 JP): Generative AI (Part 2)
  • Xtep International (1368 HK):  Valuation Too Cheap For A >10% Growth Stock
  • The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI
  • PDD (PDD): 4Q23, Time for Low Price Goods, Revenue up by 123% YoY
  • Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN): Market Leadership Position in UV Segment Bodes Well
  • GoTo 4Q2023: Improved Profitability and a Plan to Buyback Shares to Rescue Falling Share Price
  • Quick Ideas #9
  • Axis Bank Incubates a New Entrepreneur — Its Head of Retail Branches
  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid


Tencent (700 HK): 4Q23, Slower Growth, But Higher Margin, 37% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • In 4Q23, Tencent experienced a one-digit growth, but its margin improved significantly.
  • We believe Tencent’s social networks will stop shrinking after the company sold movie assets to China Literature.
  • We believe the stock will have an upside of 37.5% and a price target of HK$397 for year end 2024. Buy.

NEC (6701 JP): Generative AI (Part 2)

By Scott Foster

  • CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote address at Nvidia’s GTC event on March 18 was a reminder that generative AI is about building secure and reliable systems, not chatting up the future.
  • NEC has spent three years developing its own AI supercomputer, creating the best performing Japanese-language large language model (LLM), and testing new AI products in-house before delivering them to clients.
  • The introduction of generative AI and LLMs into business- and industry-specific solutions should provide meaningful additions to NEC’s telecom services, social infrastructure, aerospace and national security related businesses. 

Xtep International (1368 HK):  Valuation Too Cheap For A >10% Growth Stock

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Xtep International (1368 HK) announced in-line 2023 results, with net profit up 12% yoy and sales up 11% yoy.  2024 outlook was also satisfactory. 
  • The company paid out 50% of its earnings in dividend, which amounted to a 5% dividend yield at current share price of HKD5.04.
  • The company is currently trading at 10x 2024 PE (assuming a conservative 10% net profit growth in 2024).

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

By Andrew Lu

  • Earlier expectation on Micron will have rooms to raise becoming a reality, largely driven by over 30% q/q NAND bit price jump for storage business in 1Q24.
  • 10ppts stronger 2Q24 sales guidance and 3-6ppts higher gross margin guidance are driving free cash flow improvement.
  • AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV DRAM slowing bit supply growth both are positive except MOI remains 15% above 5 years average. 

PDD (PDD): 4Q23, Time for Low Price Goods, Revenue up by 123% YoY

By Ming Lu

  • Both advertising revenue and commission revenue grew dramatically in 4Q23.
  • Chinese consumers are seeking low price goods, after the economy went weak.
  • PDD’s overseas brand, TEMU, is expanding rapidly in the U.S.

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN): Market Leadership Position in UV Segment Bodes Well

By Tina Banerjee

  • In Q3FY24, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) reported revenue of INR 335Bn, a growth of 14.6% YoY on the back of higher realization and volume.
  • EBITDA margin expanded 210bps YoY to 12.3% as higher volume, favorable commodity price played a role in tandem.
  • The company is planning 2x increase in its annual production capacity to about 4Mn by 2030-31. Capacity expansion plans augur well for the company in medium to long term.

GoTo 4Q2023: Improved Profitability and a Plan to Buyback Shares to Rescue Falling Share Price

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) reported 4Q2023 results yesterday which shows that the company’s profitability has significantly improved.
  • The improvement in profitability has come at the cost of growth which has continued to decline suggesting profits may not be sustained.
  • GoTo announced that it has completed the Tokopedia partnership deal with TikTok and also a plan to buyback shares, subject to regulatory/shareholder approval.

Quick Ideas #9

By Turtles all the way down

  • Another quick trade idea. A continuation of the China theme (see my last post for more info).  Lufax holdings (LU). Again courtesy of JohnTill on Stocktwits.
  • A Chinese lending company, lending out directly and providing a peer to peer lending platform for the Chinese market.
  • With Ping An being a ~41% shareholder.

Axis Bank Incubates a New Entrepreneur — Its Head of Retail Branches

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Sudden resignation of Ravi Narayanan Group-Head in charge of retail branches, retail liabilities and third party products as he wishes to pursue entrepreneurship.
  • Possible explanation is that the bank like other banks is finding it difficult to raise retail deposits and pressure is building up on senior management
  • Bank has a high LDR and reportedly the banking regulator is demanding the bank to lower its LDR. This will have consequences on future loan growth or on NIM

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We are convinced that both bids for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) will go ahead, as they are progressing well. The downside risk is minimal, in our view.
  • The strong underlying result justifies a high price for the stock. Excluding distortions from non-recurring items in FY22, earnings have increased by 32.7% in FY23 and 26.8% in 2H23.
  • The stock now trades on 13.8x and 12.8x PERs for FY24 and FY25, in line with sector average; but below that for Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH)

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Daily Brief Macro: Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation
  • March FOMC Meeting Conclusion: Powell Likes His Balance Sheet ‘BIG!
  • China Economics: Refusal to Cut Rates Suggests Painful Tradeoffs
  • Back-Testing the Impact of National Assembly Elections on the Korean Stock Market
  • 5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation
  • India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24
  • Indonesia Policy Rate 6.0% (consensus 6.0%) in Mar-24
  • Norway Watch: Cheat sheet to assessing Norges Banks rate path
  • UK: Sticky Services Persist in Feb-24


Federal Reserve Signals “Victory” over Inflation Setting the Stage for the Next Round of Inflation

By Rikki Malik

  • Three 25 bps rate cuts signaled for the remainder of 2024 and 175bps by the end of 2025
  • Bank of Japan, despite a rate hike  keeps monetary policy extremely accommodative
  • Reported inflation will return making sector selection in equities key

March FOMC Meeting Conclusion: Powell Likes His Balance Sheet ‘BIG!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • The Fed stuck with its intention to cut rates three times this year while penciling in one rate cut less for 2025 and 2026.
  • The key takeaway was that Powell is really keen on maintaining ample liquidity instead of what he calls abundant liquidity now. 
  • Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin love ample liquidity, especially when it becomes abundant again when the economy heads south.

China Economics: Refusal to Cut Rates Suggests Painful Tradeoffs

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • While industrial production data for early-2024 was an upside surprise, it would not do to get carried away by a few favourable data points. 
  • The glimmers of hope in the data may be behind the central bank’s decision not to cut rates despite feeble price pressures. 
  • However, monetary policy tradeoffs have become more stark given the downward pressures on the yuan.  

Back-Testing the Impact of National Assembly Elections on the Korean Stock Market

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide a back-testing analysis of the impact of the National Assembly Elections on the Korean stock market. 
  • KOSPI tends to display positive price performance one month and three months prior to the election date leading up to the election date. 
  • On the other hand, KOSPI tends to decline one month and three months post the election date. We believe that post National Assembly Election, KOSPI could face greater headwinds.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy.
  • Afterwards we will have a look at the improving sentiment in Germany and then at a dive into the commodity rally currently underway.
  • The we’ll talk about Canada where rates finally look to be impacting the economy and then we’ll end up with a short look at US inflation expectations.

India: Merchandise and Services Both Help Toward a CA Surplus in CY24

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Merchandise exports grew 11.9%YoY in Feb’24 (+7.5%YoY in Jan-Feb’24) amid a broad-based rebound in engineering, pharma, chemical, electronic exports. With exports outpacing imports, the merchandise deficit declined 8.2%YoY in Apr’23-Feb’24. 
  • Services exports are robust, with many hitherto-imported services also moving onshore. The services trade surplus widened 20%YoY in Apr’23-Jan’24, likely enabling the FY24 CAD to shrink to 0.6% of GDP.
  • With goods exports set to accelerate, and crude oil prices relatively tame, we expect the current account to swing to a surplus in CY24 (and +0.5% of GDP in FY25). 

Indonesia Policy Rate 6.0% (consensus 6.0%) in Mar-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Bank Indonesia unsurprisingly maintained the BI-Rate at 6.00% amid a cautiously optimistic global economic outlook and strong domestic growth projections for 2024.
  • Future policy decisions will continue to emphasize Rupiah stability and keeping inflation within the 2.5 ± 1% target amid external uncertainties and internal pressures from volatile food prices.
  • Bank Indonesia remains committed to supporting sustainable economic growth and expanding financial inclusion through macroprudential relaxations and advancing payment system digitalization, alongside strengthening international cooperation and policy synergies at the national level.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Norway Watch: Cheat sheet to assessing Norges Banks rate path

By Andreas Steno

  • Ahead of the Norges Bank meeting tomorrow morning, we’ll elaborate on the mechanics behind the rate path model at Norges Bank and how the new path will likely look tomorrow.
  • The below visualization is a great rule of thumb on the impact of various categories in the mechanical adjustment to the rate path.
  • If I44 (NOK import weighted) increases by 1% relative to the base-case, it impacts the curve by 10bps.

UK: Sticky Services Persist in Feb-24

By Phil Rush

  • UK CPI inflation slowed 0.1pp further than expected to 3.4% in February amid soft goods prices, but services prices were strong again by only easing to 6.1%.
  • Underlying inflation pressures remain sticky, with the median inflationary impulse stuck close to 3%. These data remain inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% target.
  • Proximity to the target relies upon the temporary drag from falling energy prices and is not a reason to cut. Wage growth is too high, fuelling resilience that postpones cuts.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Robotics , Jeil Machine & Solution, ZTO Express Cayman , Grupo Aeromexico and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible
  • Jeil Machine & Solution IPO Valuation Analysis
  • ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume –> +2% EPS?! | AVOID
  • Aeromexico – Another Record Year in Prospect in 2024


Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
  • There could be up to five changes in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.

Jeil Machine & Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Jeil M&S is target price of 24,354 won per share, which is 35% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • We estimate the Jeil M&S to generate sales of 279 billion won (up 94.9% YoY) and operating profit of 18.1 billion won (up 928% YoY).
  • Jeil M&S’s main products include mixing equipment for the rechargeable battery sector. Its major customers include Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, and Northvolt. 

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume –> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In Q423, ZTO’s parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth
  • But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period
  • In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve – AVOID

Aeromexico – Another Record Year in Prospect in 2024

By Neil Glynn

  • Aeromexico reported record profitability in 2023 and we expect another record in 2024.
  • Our deep dive on the competitive landscape suggests a benign outlook as Aeromexico does not face competitor capacity growth in 2024.
  • The US DOT’s tentative ruling that Delta and Aeromexico must terminate their JV is a meaningful negative from 4Q24 unless their appeal is successful.

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Most Read: ZOZO Inc, Shinko Electric Industries, Giordano International, Trial Holdings, Snow Peak Inc, IntelliCentrics Global Holding, Doosan Robotics , Akeso Biopharma Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • The Bigly March 2024 “Wednesday-Friday Trade” (Surprising Flows)
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender State of Play
  • Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM
  • Trial Holdings IPO Trading – Demand and Valuation Are Towards the Higher Side
  • Snow Peak: Cheap MBO
  • IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Delisting and Special Dividend
  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible
  • Trial Holdings IPO: Trading Debut
  • Contrarian Moves: Promoter Buying During Indian Equity Downturns
  • Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) – Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?


The Bigly March 2024 “Wednesday-Friday Trade” (Surprising Flows)

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
  • But there may be ¥1.0-1.2trln+ to buy on one day into the close later this month, then ad hoc buys of ¥630bn and index sells of ~¥600bn  2 days later.
  • Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. This year the Nikkei funding trade makes things more complicated. 

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender State of Play

By Arun George

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread has narrowed from a high of 10.4% to the current 4.2%. 
  • The narrowing spread can be attributed to the JSR Corp (4185 JP) tender launch, which suggests likely China SAMR approval, and Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) giving up recent gains. 
  • Like JSR, we expect China SAMR to allow JIC to withdraw its Shinko merger control filing. There is a good chance the tender launches before the guided late August start.

Giordano (709 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register Ahead Of The SGM

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last month, a Cheng family vehicle with 24.06% of Giordano (709 HK), requisitioned an SGM to remove CEO Peter Lau, and install Colin Currie as CEO, plus three other NEDs/INEDs.
  • That SGM will be held on the 3rd April. The director resolutions – both the removal and appointments – are “ordinary”, requiring a simple majority vote. 
  • The outcome will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities will vote. So I dug a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, with some surprising results.  

Trial Holdings IPO Trading – Demand and Valuation Are Towards the Higher Side

By Sumeet Singh

  • Trial Holdings (5882 JP) (TH) raised around US$259m after pricing its IPO at the top-end in its Japan IPO.
  • TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Snow Peak: Cheap MBO

By Michael Causton

  • Snow Peak agreement with Bain Capital to take the outdoor brand private next month seems to have been in the works for a couple of years. 
  • Although sales are expected to rebound this year to near record highs, Snow Peak insists the domestic camping boom is over and will look at long-term growth overseas instead.
  • Even so, the MBO price looks cheap. Snow Peak is likely to see a rebound in domestic sales in FY2024 and its plans for overseas expansion are solid.

IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Delisting and Special Dividend

By Arun George

  • On 9 February, IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) announced the disposal of most of its assets to symplr software. On 19 March, the antitrust condition was satisfied.
  • The consideration will be distributed to shareholders as a special dividend. The minimum and maximum special interim dividends are US$0.52 (HK$4.08) and US$0.55 (HK$4.30) per share.
  • The key condition is EGM shareholder approval. Due to the irrevocables from key shareholders, the EGM vote should comfortably pass. This is a done deal.

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
  • There could be up to five changes in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.

Trial Holdings IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Contrarian Moves: Promoter Buying During Indian Equity Downturns

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Promoter buying reflects insider confidence in the company’s future, often driven by access to undisclosed positive developments and growth opportunities.
  • Increased promoter stake may indicate that the market has undervalued the company, potentially presenting an opportunity for investors to buy at a discount.
  • Consider the broader market environment, company fundamentals, and industry trends alongside promoter buying activity to form a comprehensive investment thesis.

Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) – Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Akeso’s product sales grew rapidly in 2023, mainly driven by off-label use of AK104. Since AK104’s commercialization potential on other indications was “overdrawn” in advance, sales growth would slow afterwards. 
  • The key investment logic of Akeso is whether/how much its BsAb pipelines would grab shares from PD-1. The high valuation has somewhat priced in AK112’s successful head-to-head trial with pembrolizumab.
  • If AK112 does beat Keytruda, valuation will reach a new level. If AK112 fails in critical clinical trials, it would cast a shadow on the entire BsAb pipeline of Akeso.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Robotics , Jeil Machine & Solution, ZTO Express Cayman , Grupo Aeromexico and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible
  • Jeil Machine & Solution IPO Valuation Analysis
  • ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume –> +2% EPS?! | AVOID
  • Aeromexico – Another Record Year in Prospect in 2024


Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Up to Five Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
  • There could be up to five changes in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.

Jeil Machine & Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Jeil M&S is target price of 24,354 won per share, which is 35% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
  • We estimate the Jeil M&S to generate sales of 279 billion won (up 94.9% YoY) and operating profit of 18.1 billion won (up 928% YoY).
  • Jeil M&S’s main products include mixing equipment for the rechargeable battery sector. Its major customers include Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, and Northvolt. 

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume –> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In Q423, ZTO’s parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth
  • But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period
  • In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve – AVOID

Aeromexico – Another Record Year in Prospect in 2024

By Neil Glynn

  • Aeromexico reported record profitability in 2023 and we expect another record in 2024.
  • Our deep dive on the competitive landscape suggests a benign outlook as Aeromexico does not face competitor capacity growth in 2024.
  • The US DOT’s tentative ruling that Delta and Aeromexico must terminate their JV is a meaningful negative from 4Q24 unless their appeal is successful.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, NEC Corp, Micron Technology, Reddit , WT Microelectronics, Coforge, Sunpower Corp, FD Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK): 4Q23, Slower Growth, But Higher Margin, 37% Upside
  • Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside
  • NEC (6701 JP): Generative AI (Part 2)
  • The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI
  • Reddit IPO – Quick Thoughts on Valuation
  • WT Micro GDR Early Look – Last Offering Had a Mixed Performance, This One Is Shaping up Better
  • Coforge QIP Early Look – Shares Have Corrected Since the Announcement, Last Deal Did Well
  • Micron Earnings: HBM Driving Price Increases in Other Sectors
  • Sunpower (SPWR) – Wednesday, Dec 20, 2023
  • Fd Technologies (FDP.LN) – Tuesday, Dec 19, 2023


Tencent (700 HK): 4Q23, Slower Growth, But Higher Margin, 37% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • In 4Q23, Tencent experienced a one-digit growth, but its margin improved significantly.
  • We believe Tencent’s social networks will stop shrinking after the company sold movie assets to China Literature.
  • We believe the stock will have an upside of 37.5% and a price target of HK$397 for year end 2024. Buy.

Tencent 4Q2023: Gaming Declines Yet Again, Margins Have Further Upside

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 4Q results today. Both revenues and OP increased 7.1% and 42.0% YoY, however, both revenue and OP fell below consensus estimates.
  • The company also announced an increase to 2023 dividends and more than doublethe size of the company’s share buyback in 2024 compared to 2023.
  • We expect Internet VAS to grow at single-digits in 2024, however, high-margin new products to help boost margins in 2024.

NEC (6701 JP): Generative AI (Part 2)

By Scott Foster

  • CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote address at Nvidia’s GTC event on March 18 was a reminder that generative AI is about building secure and reliable systems, not chatting up the future.
  • NEC has spent three years developing its own AI supercomputer, creating the best performing Japanese-language large language model (LLM), and testing new AI products in-house before delivering them to clients.
  • The introduction of generative AI and LLMs into business- and industry-specific solutions should provide meaningful additions to NEC’s telecom services, social infrastructure, aerospace and national security related businesses. 

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

By Andrew Lu

  • Earlier expectation on Micron will have rooms to raise becoming a reality, largely driven by over 30% q/q NAND bit price jump for storage business in 1Q24.
  • 10ppts stronger 2Q24 sales guidance and 3-6ppts higher gross margin guidance are driving free cash flow improvement.
  • AI server, PC, and smartphone driving DRAM bit demand and HBM3e/HBM4 and 1-gamma EUV DRAM slowing bit supply growth both are positive except MOI remains 15% above 5 years average. 

Reddit IPO – Quick Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Reddit (RDDT US) is looking to raise up to US$750m in its US IPO.
  • Reddit is an online social media platform where users are able to join communities, engage in conversations, research, exchange goods and services as well as create new communities.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we share our quick thoughts on valuation.

WT Micro GDR Early Look – Last Offering Had a Mixed Performance, This One Is Shaping up Better

By Clarence Chu

  • WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) is looking to raise up to US$444m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
  • WT Microelectronics recently announced its board’s resolution to issue between 68-85m new shares in the form of GDRs, with the use of proceeds geared towards purchasing of raw materials overseas.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.

Coforge QIP Early Look – Shares Have Corrected Since the Announcement, Last Deal Did Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Coforge (COFORGE IN) is looking to raise around US$386m in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).
  • In an announcement released on Saturday, Coforge had mentioned its board’s approval to raise up to INR32bn via a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 9.1%.
  • The deal would be a large one to digest at 14 days of three month ADV. That being said, the company’s last selldown did well.

Micron Earnings: HBM Driving Price Increases in Other Sectors

By Jim Handy

  • Micron Technology reported very positive revenues this quarter and a return to profitability
  • A large part of this stems from the impact that HBM demand is constraining production of standard DDR5 DRAM, driving it into a shortage
  • This is good news for Micron and its DRAM competitors Samsung and SK hynix

Sunpower (SPWR) – Wednesday, Dec 20, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Sunpower is facing a severe liquidity problem and may need to raise $100-300 million before January to avoid bankruptcy
  • The company operates as a wholesaler of residential retail solar panel systems, providing equipment to third-party developers or selling directly to residential customers
  • Trade credit tightening terms and potential customer hesitation due to financial instability are contributing to Sunpower’s uncertain future

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Fd Technologies (FDP.LN) – Tuesday, Dec 19, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • FD Technologies is a UK-based software and services company with a market cap of £300 million.
  • The company has three segments, with its KX segment being the fastest growing, accounting for around 26% of its revenue.
  • KX provides a time-series database solution that is expanding beyond the finance industry, with ARR expected to reach £80 million by FY24.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CPMC Holdings, Rain Industries, TMC the metals co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid
  • Rain Industries- Forensic Analysis
  • TMC the Metals Company, Inc. – Metal Competition Driving Geopolitics of Seafloor Nodules


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): All Eyes on the Bids, but Underlying Still Solid

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We are convinced that both bids for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) will go ahead, as they are progressing well. The downside risk is minimal, in our view.
  • The strong underlying result justifies a high price for the stock. Excluding distortions from non-recurring items in FY22, earnings have increased by 32.7% in FY23 and 26.8% in 2H23.
  • The stock now trades on 13.8x and 12.8x PERs for FY24 and FY25, in line with sector average; but below that for Shanghai Baosteel Packaging-A (601968 CH)

Rain Industries- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Rain Industries (RINDL IN) is one of the global leaders in coal tar pitch and calcined petroleum coke. The company also engages in cement manufacturing.
  • The company has been facing heat lately especially business related. The fact that there are goodwill impairments, reversal of DTA and costly refinancing puts Rain in a worrying shape.
  • The company also has seen impairment in fixed assets especially the CWIP. The company also faces high liability for its DB plan in Germany.

TMC the Metals Company, Inc. – Metal Competition Driving Geopolitics of Seafloor Nodules

By Water Tower Research

  • Major accomplishments and milestones. The last 12-plus months saw significant advances for TMC with respect to internal execution and achievements on both the operational and financial fronts, as well as industry and political developments that appear conducive to the company’s aim of bringing the first seafloor polymetallic nodule resource into production.
  • Advancing scientific knowledge and addressing concerns. As the premier player in the seafloor mining industry’s development, TMC significantly expanded its effort to deepen the scientific knowledge of deep-sea mining’s impact on local environments and, together with independent third parties, develop baseline assessment tools to evaluate the environmental impacts of seafloor mining versus land-based operations.
  • The company utilized the data collected during a 4Q22 large-scale pilot collection project and a follow-up environmental data collection campaign conducted in 2H23, which it shared with the international scientific community, to inform its environmental application process with the ISA.

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