Smartkarma Daily Briefs

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 124.6% as of Mar 22nd.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, utilities and offset by financials, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan, Hua Hong Semi.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Techtronic Ind, Zijin Mining, Innovent Bio, Kuaishou, Pacific Basin

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 15th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Techtronic Ind, Zijin Mining, Innovent Bio, Kuaishou, Pacific Basin, Citic Sec, Link Reit, CKI.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 22nd): Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Zto Express, Tencent

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 22nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Zto Express, Tencent, Meituan.

Northbound Flows (Mar 22nd): CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software

We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 22nd.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$934.0 million, led by health care, materials, information technology, and offset by communication services, industrials, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software Technology.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 22nd): Evergreen Marine, Getac Holdings, Lite-On Tech, Nanya Tech

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 22nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD73.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Evergreen Marine, Getac Holdings, Lite-On Tech, Nanya Tech, Alchip Tech, TSMC, Chung-Hsin.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 24

Daily Brief ESG: First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English

First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English

By Aki Matsumoto

Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores have the highest ROE, Tobin’s Q, Market Capitalization, and Foreign Shareholder Ratio, while companies with the lowest scores have the lowest values.
Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores also show generally higher Board Practices and Key Actions. Both Disclosure in English and these practices are the result of engagement efforts.
If Disclosure in English and corporate governance efforts are advanced through engagement, it can be hypothesized that profitability will also increase through engagement with overseas investors.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 24

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:SHEIN/PDD/NTES/6618 HK and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:SHEIN/PDD/NTES/6618 HK

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:SHEIN/PDD/NTES/6618 HK

By Ying Pan

SHEIN/PDD: France to restrict sales of fast – fashion (-/-)
NTES: After The Release of The New Expansion Pack For <Beyond the World>, It Climbed to the 3rd Position on iOS Games Grossing Chart in China (+)
6618 HK：JD Health’s revenue in 2H23 exceeded expectations, while profits fell short, and revenue and profit guidance for 2024 both worse than consensus（-）

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 24

Daily Brief ECM: Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM

Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM

By Neil Glynn

Avianca reached $1,200m EBITDAR in 2023, ahead of our forecast of $1,162m, already exceeding its 2024 target.
The company does not provide guidance on 2024 profitability but we publish our quarterly bridge analysis and map prospects versus LATAM Group guidance.
We forecast 10% yoy EBITDAR growth in 2024 on 20% capacity growth, which compares to our forecast of 15% EBITDAR growth at LATAM, which is growing less aggressively.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin
HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface
Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend
EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….

By Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 INDEX has been rallying for >3 months, rising more than 28%. Is it too much, too fast?
Short-Term, if we look at the Market Reversal Matrix’s SHORT WEEKLY model for the index, it looks like it could either reverse within a couple of weeks, or stall.
Look for the ~41000 resistance area to place SHORT or hedge your LONG positions.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR

I tally 52 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed this week on Smartkarma: IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) disposal/winding-up/special dividend arb; and Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)‘s hostile Offer.
Key updates took place on: Boral Ltd (BLD AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), and JSR Corp (4185 JP).

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH) launches a US$78 million IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK), Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK).

HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.
The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely China Mobile (941 HK)) were approached.
The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend

The trade of being short Fast Retailing (9983 JP) vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.
Giordano (709 HK)‘s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.
AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) intends to launch a Tender Offer on Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) without having contacted C&F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!

EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

By Nico Rosti

The Hang Seng Index is at a turning point: investors want to know if the current rally can continue into April.
Our MONTHLY seasonal matrix model indicates that to see the index rallying in April, usually we should have a negative close in March, so this week will be crucial.
Buy between 16281 and 15924 to ride the continuation of the rally in April.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 24

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [PDD Holdings (PDD US and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$159) TP Change]: Bargain Valuation, Even if Temu Disappears
Tencent Posts Weaker Quarterly Results Amid Gaming Challenges
ModivCare (MODV US): Decelerating Revenue Growth and Margin Erosion; Bumpy Road Ahead

[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$159) TP Change]: Bargain Valuation, Even if Temu Disappears

By Ying Pan

PDD reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.4%), 12.4%, and 24% vs. our est., and 11.6%, 37.0%, and 50.3% vs. cons., respectively;
We estimate the beat was driven by (1) improved take rate on the China platform following ad tool adjustments, and (2) Temu margin expansion;
We remove Temu US from our model from 2025+, as restrictions seem more than likely following the TikTok ban and cut TP to US$ 159 to reflect this;

Tencent Posts Weaker Quarterly Results Amid Gaming Challenges

By Caixin Global

Tencent Holdings Ltd. (腾讯) reported weaker-than-expected results in the fourth quarter of 2023, as the Chinese internet behemoth faced challenges growing its gaming business, particularly in China’s domestic market.
During the three-month period, Hong Kong-listed Tencent generated 155.2 billion yuan ($21.9 billion) in revenue, up 7% from 2022, according to its earnings report released Wednesday. That missed the average estimate of 157.4 billion yuan by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Quarterly net profit also fell short of expectations, down 75% year-on-year at 27 billion yuan, compared to average analysts’ predictions of 33.3 billion yuan.

ModivCare (MODV US): Decelerating Revenue Growth and Margin Erosion; Bumpy Road Ahead

By Tina Banerjee

ModivCare (MODV US) issued 2024 revenue guidance, which fell short of consensus. The company anticipates 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be $190–210M, down 2% YoY at mid-point.
NEMT segment is witnessing decelerating quarterly revenue growth and lower margins. Gross profit per trip of NEMT segment is expected to decline 25% YoY and QoQ to $5.69 in 1Q24.
Modivcare will see improvement in financial performance no sooner than 2H24. Shares plunged 44% YTD. No recovery is expected in near-term.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 24

Most Read: Yankuang Energy Group, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A, ZOZO Inc, Nikkei 225, PDD Holdings, HLB Life Science, JSR Corp, Shinko Electric Industries, HKBN Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM
CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up
EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….
[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$159) TP Change]: Bargain Valuation, Even if Temu Disappears
HLB Life Science: Impact of Rights Offering Capital Raise of 150 Billion Won
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR
Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin
Japan Weekly | Real Estate Inflates; Nidec Benefits from AI
HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

By Brian Freitas

The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.
The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.
Another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

By Brian Freitas

With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

By Brian Freitas

There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.
There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.
Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX).

EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….

By Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 INDEX has been rallying for >3 months, rising more than 28%. Is it too much, too fast?
Short-Term, if we look at the Market Reversal Matrix’s SHORT WEEKLY model for the index, it looks like it could either reverse within a couple of weeks, or stall.
Look for the ~41000 resistance area to place SHORT or hedge your LONG positions.

[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$159) TP Change]: Bargain Valuation, Even if Temu Disappears

By Ying Pan

PDD reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.4%), 12.4%, and 24% vs. our est., and 11.6%, 37.0%, and 50.3% vs. cons., respectively;
We estimate the beat was driven by (1) improved take rate on the China platform following ad tool adjustments, and (2) Temu margin expansion;
We remove Temu US from our model from 2025+, as restrictions seem more than likely following the TikTok ban and cut TP to US$ 159 to reflect this;

HLB Life Science: Impact of Rights Offering Capital Raise of 150 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

On 21 March, HLB Life Science announced a rights offering capital raise worth 150 billion won.
The expected rights offering price is 13,630 won (32% lower than current price of 19,930 won) and there are 11 million shares in this rights offering (10% of outstanding shares).
HLB Inc (028300 KS) is the largest controlling shareholder of HLB Life Science (067630 KS) with an 18.7% stake in the company.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR

I tally 52 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed this week on Smartkarma: IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) disposal/winding-up/special dividend arb; and Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)‘s hostile Offer.
Key updates took place on: Boral Ltd (BLD AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), and JSR Corp (4185 JP).

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH) launches a US$78 million IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK), Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK).

Japan Weekly | Real Estate Inflates; Nidec Benefits from AI

By Mark Chadwick

The Nikkei and Topix indexes surged by 5.63% and 5.33% reaching all-time highs
Real Estate majors were the biggest movers in Japan. Beneficiaries of higher inflation and continuation of easy monetary policy
Nidec is reinventing itself again. EV traction motors will remain a core driver, but investors can now get excited by the AI thematic

HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.
The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely China Mobile (941 HK)) were approached.
The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 23

Daily Brief Australia: Link Administration, Respiri Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Link Admin (LNK AU): 24th April Shareholder Vote
Respiri – Termination of coverage

Link Admin (LNK AU): 24th April Shareholder Vote