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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Mar 24
0

Daily Brief United States: ModivCare and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • ModivCare (MODV US): Decelerating Revenue Growth and Margin Erosion; Bumpy Road Ahead

ModivCare (MODV US): Decelerating Revenue Growth and Margin Erosion; Bumpy Road Ahead

By Tina Banerjee

  • ModivCare (MODV US) issued 2024 revenue guidance, which fell short of consensus. The company anticipates 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be $190–210M, down 2% YoY at mid-point.
  • NEMT segment is witnessing decelerating quarterly revenue growth and lower margins. Gross profit per trip of NEMT segment is expected to decline 25% YoY and QoQ to $5.69 in 1Q24.
  • Modivcare will see improvement in financial performance no sooner than 2H24. Shares plunged 44% YTD. No recovery is expected in near-term.

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  • ✓ Company Data and News
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Mar 24
0

Daily Brief China: PDD Holdings, Tencent, HKBN Ltd, Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$159) TP Change]: Bargain Valuation, Even if Temu Disappears
  • Tencent Posts Weaker Quarterly Results Amid Gaming Challenges
  • HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface
  • EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$159) TP Change]: Bargain Valuation, Even if Temu Disappears

By Ying Pan

  • PDD reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.4%), 12.4%, and 24% vs. our est., and 11.6%, 37.0%, and 50.3% vs. cons., respectively;
  • We estimate the beat was driven by (1) improved take rate on the China platform following ad tool adjustments, and (2) Temu margin expansion;
  • We remove Temu US from our model from 2025+, as restrictions seem more than likely following the TikTok ban and cut TP to US$ 159 to reflect this;

Tencent Posts Weaker Quarterly Results Amid Gaming Challenges

By Caixin Global

  • Tencent Holdings Ltd. (腾讯) reported weaker-than-expected results in the fourth quarter of 2023, as the Chinese internet behemoth faced challenges growing its gaming business, particularly in China’s domestic market.
  • During the three-month period, Hong Kong-listed Tencent generated 155.2 billion yuan ($21.9 billion) in revenue, up 7% from 2022, according to its earnings report released Wednesday. That missed the average estimate of 157.4 billion yuan by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • Quarterly net profit also fell short of expectations, down 75% year-on-year at 27 billion yuan, compared to average analysts’ predictions of 33.3 billion yuan.

HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

By Arun George

  • On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.
  • The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely China Mobile (941 HK)) were approached.
  • The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage. 

EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index is at a turning point: investors want to know if the current rally can continue into April.
  • Our MONTHLY seasonal matrix model indicates that to see the index rallying in April, usually we should have a negative close in March, so this week will be crucial.
  • Buy between 16281 and 15924 to ride the continuation of the rally in April.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Mar 24
0

Daily Brief Japan: Nikkei 225, JSR Corp, Shinko Electric Industries, Fast Retailing, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR
  • Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend
  • First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English

EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 INDEX has been rallying for >3 months, rising more than 28%. Is it too much, too fast?
  • Short-Term, if we look at the Market Reversal Matrix’s SHORT WEEKLY model for the index, it looks like it could either reverse within a couple of weeks, or stall.
  • Look for the ~41000 resistance area to place SHORT or hedge your LONG positions.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR

By David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin

By Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend

By David Blennerhassett

First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores have the highest ROE, Tobin’s Q, Market Capitalization, and Foreign Shareholder Ratio, while companies with the lowest scores have the lowest values.
  • Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores also show generally higher Board Practices and Key Actions. Both Disclosure in English and these practices are the result of engagement efforts.
  • If Disclosure in English and corporate governance efforts are advanced through engagement, it can be hypothesized that profitability will also increase through engagement with overseas investors.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Mar 24
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Avianca Holdings Sa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM

Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM

By Neil Glynn

  • Avianca reached $1,200m EBITDAR in 2023, ahead of our forecast of $1,162m, already exceeding its 2024 target.
  • The company does not provide guidance on 2024 profitability but we publish our quarterly bridge analysis and map prospects versus LATAM Group guidance.
  • We forecast 10% yoy EBITDAR growth in 2024 on 20% capacity growth, which compares to our forecast of 15% EBITDAR growth at LATAM, which is growing less aggressively.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 24
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JSR Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: IntelliCentrics, Chilled & Frozen Logistics, Boral, Orecorp, Link Admin, JSR

By David Blennerhassett

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 24
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shinko Electric Industries, Tencent, HKBN Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin
  • Tencent Posts Weaker Quarterly Results Amid Gaming Challenges
  • HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Mar) – Shinko, C&F Logistics, JSR, IntelliCentrics, SciClone, Link Admin

By Arun George

Tencent Posts Weaker Quarterly Results Amid Gaming Challenges

By Caixin Global

  • Tencent Holdings Ltd. (腾讯) reported weaker-than-expected results in the fourth quarter of 2023, as the Chinese internet behemoth faced challenges growing its gaming business, particularly in China’s domestic market.
  • During the three-month period, Hong Kong-listed Tencent generated 155.2 billion yuan ($21.9 billion) in revenue, up 7% from 2022, according to its earnings report released Wednesday. That missed the average estimate of 157.4 billion yuan by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • Quarterly net profit also fell short of expectations, down 75% year-on-year at 27 billion yuan, compared to average analysts’ predictions of 33.3 billion yuan.

HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

By Arun George

  • On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.
  • The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely China Mobile (941 HK)) were approached.
  • The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 24
0

Daily Brief Health Care: ModivCare and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • ModivCare (MODV US): Decelerating Revenue Growth and Margin Erosion; Bumpy Road Ahead

ModivCare (MODV US): Decelerating Revenue Growth and Margin Erosion; Bumpy Road Ahead

By Tina Banerjee

  • ModivCare (MODV US) issued 2024 revenue guidance, which fell short of consensus. The company anticipates 2024 adjusted EBITDA to be $190–210M, down 2% YoY at mid-point.
  • NEMT segment is witnessing decelerating quarterly revenue growth and lower margins. Gross profit per trip of NEMT segment is expected to decline 25% YoY and QoQ to $5.69 in 1Q24.
  • Modivcare will see improvement in financial performance no sooner than 2H24. Shares plunged 44% YTD. No recovery is expected in near-term.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 24
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Avianca Holdings Sa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM

Avianca – Bridging 2024 Prospects with a Little Help from LATAM

By Neil Glynn

  • Avianca reached $1,200m EBITDAR in 2023, ahead of our forecast of $1,162m, already exceeding its 2024 target.
  • The company does not provide guidance on 2024 profitability but we publish our quarterly bridge analysis and map prospects versus LATAM Group guidance.
  • We forecast 10% yoy EBITDAR growth in 2024 on 20% capacity growth, which compares to our forecast of 15% EBITDAR growth at LATAM, which is growing less aggressively.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 24
0

Daily Brief Financials: Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….
  • EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

EQD | Nikkei 225 Flying High, Don’t Burn Your Wings….

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 INDEX has been rallying for >3 months, rising more than 28%. Is it too much, too fast?
  • Short-Term, if we look at the Market Reversal Matrix’s SHORT WEEKLY model for the index, it looks like it could either reverse within a couple of weeks, or stall.
  • Look for the ~41000 resistance area to place SHORT or hedge your LONG positions.

EQD | The Hang Seng Index’s Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index is at a turning point: investors want to know if the current rally can continue into April.
  • Our MONTHLY seasonal matrix model indicates that to see the index rallying in April, usually we should have a negative close in March, so this week will be crucial.
  • Buy between 16281 and 15924 to ride the continuation of the rally in April.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 24
0

Daily Brief Consumer: PDD Holdings, Fast Retailing, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$159) TP Change]: Bargain Valuation, Even if Temu Disappears
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend
  • First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English

[PDD Holdings (PDD US, BUY, TP US$159) TP Change]: Bargain Valuation, Even if Temu Disappears

By Ying Pan

  • PDD reported C4Q23 top-line, non-GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.4%), 12.4%, and 24% vs. our est., and 11.6%, 37.0%, and 50.3% vs. cons., respectively;
  • We estimate the beat was driven by (1) improved take rate on the China platform following ad tool adjustments, and (2) Temu margin expansion;
  • We remove Temu US from our model from 2025+, as restrictions seem more than likely following the TikTok ban and cut TP to US$ 159 to reflect this;

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend

By David Blennerhassett

First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores have the highest ROE, Tobin’s Q, Market Capitalization, and Foreign Shareholder Ratio, while companies with the lowest scores have the lowest values.
  • Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores also show generally higher Board Practices and Key Actions. Both Disclosure in English and these practices are the result of engagement efforts.
  • If Disclosure in English and corporate governance efforts are advanced through engagement, it can be hypothesized that profitability will also increase through engagement with overseas investors.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free