All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: ZOZO Inc, PDD Holdings, Fu Shou Yuan and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Zozo (3092) And Other ADDs Update
  • Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Worries Overdone
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): As Solid as It Goes


Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Zozo (3092) And Other ADDs Update

By Travis Lundy

  • ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) is +10% since the close after the Nikkei 225 inclusion announcement vs Nikkei225 +2%. Fellow upweight Nitori is up too. Disco and Socionext are up less.
  • All three inclusions and one upweight see considerable inclusion demand when compared to active holdings. Some more than others. 
  • Some trades here are more interesting than others, still. Cumulative excess volumes are one guide. Fundamentals, and flow dynamics are another.

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Worries Overdone

By Eric Chen

  • Concerns around slowdown in growth are behind the disconnect between PDD’s stellar 4Q23 results and lackluster share performance, in our view.
  • We have seen this before. If history is a guide, its valuation will improve after growth hits bottom in 1Q24.
  • We expect PDD to deliver 50% plus growth for 2024 and generate US$14 billion adjusted net profit. Reiterate US$240 billion target market cap or 50% upside.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): As Solid as It Goes

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)‘s net profit grew 20.1% in FY23; and if not a withholding tax of Rmb87.4m, its net profit would have increased by over 30%.  
  • Including a special DPS of HK$0.2139, full-year payout ratio reached 98.5%. Still, it has net cash of Rmb2.7bn or 24% of its market capitalisation.
  • Profitability outlook is encouraging – structural demand increase, higher ASP, and well-contained costs. Its land reserve is enough to be consumed for 82 years.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 22nd): Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 22nd): Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Sk Hynix, Kia, Posco
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 22nd): TSMC, Unimicron Tech, Delta Elec, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 22nd): Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Sk Hynix, Kia, Posco

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of Mar 22nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD546.4bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,746mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Sk Hynix, Kia, Posco, Naver.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 22nd): TSMC, Unimicron Tech, Delta Elec, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 22nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,011.4bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD4,790mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Unimicron Tech, Delta Elec, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai, Evergreen Marine, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech, Pegatron, Getac Holdings.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Technical Analysis: This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished


This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished

By Cam Hui

  • A review of the structure of the stock market makes us long-term bullish.
  • Growth stocks, as proxied by the NASDAQ 100, are weakening but a rotating correction is evident as value stocks are taking up the leadership mantle.
  • That said, the S&P 500 is short-term extended and can pull back at any time, with initial support at about 5000 and strong secondary support at about 4800.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | New Tech Highs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | New Tech Highs
  • Siltronic To Exit Small Diameter Wafer Market by 2025
  • Social Surge


Ohayo Japan | New Tech Highs

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks closed mixed on Friday with the Nasdaq Composite hitting a new high amidst optimism over a potential reversal in interest rate hikes
  • Analysts anticipate a 10% rise in EPS for the Nikkei’s 225 constituents in fiscal 2024, with electronics and precision instruments leading the charge, driven by expected semiconductor demand growth
  • ANA Holdings, parent company of All Nippon Airways, announced plans to slash daytime air cargo rates, aligning them with trucking costs, in anticipation of an impending truck driver shortage

Siltronic To Exit Small Diameter Wafer Market by 2025

By William Keating

  • Ferrotec’s production of 150mm wafers in China has increased >6x since 2019
  • Siltronic’s production of 150mm and smaller wafer diameters is no longer profitable
  • China likely now self-sufficient in the supply of 150mm and smaller diameter silicon wafers. Next milestone: 200mm wafers. 

Social Surge

By subSPAC

  • The last week was packed with SPAC activity including deals, terminations, and new IPOs.
  • A high-profile SPAC merger was approved by shareholders potentially netting billions to the former president.
  • Also, a sustainable plastics company terminates a previously announced deal, and a SPAC plans to take an IoT-focused firm public. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs
  • Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Zozo (3092) And Other ADDs Update
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still At Wides
  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Mar) – APM, Genex, C&F Logistics, Roland DG, IntelliCentrics, China TCM
  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 18-Mar-24 to 22-Mar-24
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024): NB Turns Net Seller, CATL the Big Buy


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were down small on the week. Larger caps down more. H-shares down more after a hard Friday.
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK35.8bn after $21.4bn the week before. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.
  • The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week.

Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Zozo (3092) And Other ADDs Update

By Travis Lundy

  • ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) is +10% since the close after the Nikkei 225 inclusion announcement vs Nikkei225 +2%. Fellow upweight Nitori is up too. Disco and Socionext are up less.
  • All three inclusions and one upweight see considerable inclusion demand when compared to active holdings. Some more than others. 
  • Some trades here are more interesting than others, still. Cumulative excess volumes are one guide. Fundamentals, and flow dynamics are another.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still At Wides

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. Still. NORTHBOUND a huge net seller this week, but net buyers in size (RMB +86bn) over 8wks.
  • For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 18-Mar-24 to 22-Mar-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • Indian markets to implement T+0 settlement cycle starting 28-March-2024. Phase-wise transition planned .
  • Upcoming long weekends causing drastic markdown in IV levels. This combined with “High & Down” vol regime – short gamma/ short vega trades recommended.  
  • Contango shape of Volatility curves are an additional reason to be short gamma & earning theta

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024): NB Turns Net Seller, CATL the Big Buy

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 7.8bn of A-shares on decent volume after buying RMB 32.8bn the week before. This is a small sell vs 6 weeks of buying.
  • The volume now is still chasing momentum. CATL the big buy, and less passive-feeling than last week.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Hopson Development


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Hopson Development

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (25th Mar 2024) – TCS and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (25th Mar 2024) – TCS, Akeso, Coforge, ABSL, Tokio Marine, Trial, Migao, Mixue, Reddit


ECM Weekly (25th Mar 2024) – TCS, Akeso, Coforge, ABSL, Tokio Marine, Trial, Migao, Mixue, Reddit

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, Trial Holdings (5882 JP) ended up doing better than we expected, while Hong Kong finally got its first US$100m+ listing for the year.
  • For placements, India was again at the forefront, this time with a not-so-pleasant results of Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN)

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Travelsky (696 HK): Big Jan and Feb so Far and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Travelsky (696 HK): Big Jan and Feb so Far
  • Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Worries Overdone
  • The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express’ Maiden Earnings Report
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.22)-TCM Injection Revive, China CXO Lag Behind in GLP-1, United Imaging
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): As Solid as It Goes
  • Hogy Medical (3593): A Prescription for Renewed Growth
  • Jindal Stainless (JDSL IN): Steady Volume Growth- A Positive For The Long Term
  • Marathon Digital Holdngs Inc (MARA) – Sunday, Dec 24, 2023
  • China Resources Sanjiu (000999.CH) – 2023 Results Below Expectations; Short-Term Headwinds Remain
  • Raffles Medical chair continues purchases; Sam Goi ups PSC stake


Travelsky (696 HK): Big Jan and Feb so Far

By Henry Soediarko

  • Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) share price has recovered by 25% since January 2024 sell off
  • CNY travel data indicates a huge potential of revenue increase for Travelsky.
  • At 18x PER, Travelsky has become a bargain in the travel sector that is clearly rebounding. 

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Growth Worries Overdone

By Eric Chen

  • Concerns around slowdown in growth are behind the disconnect between PDD’s stellar 4Q23 results and lackluster share performance, in our view.
  • We have seen this before. If history is a guide, its valuation will improve after growth hits bottom in 1Q24.
  • We expect PDD to deliver 50% plus growth for 2024 and generate US$14 billion adjusted net profit. Reiterate US$240 billion target market cap or 50% upside.

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express’ Maiden Earnings Report

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Organic growth in J&T’s China operations exceeded that of peers…
  • …but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock
  • Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.22)-TCM Injection Revive, China CXO Lag Behind in GLP-1, United Imaging

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Benefiting from changes in pandemic prevention policies and favorable reimbursement policy support, TCM injections market would end its years of continuous decline and enter a period of rapid growth again.
  • After Novo Nordisk acquires Catalent, China CXOs would be less likely to obtain the global GLP-1 orders. As MNCs rethink supply chain issues, China CXOs would face more challenges.
  • Against the backdrop of anti-corruption/import substitution, investment logic of United Imaging is solid. However, the biggest issue is high valuation. Fundamentals’re difficult to support more than RMB100 billion market value.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): As Solid as It Goes

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)‘s net profit grew 20.1% in FY23; and if not a withholding tax of Rmb87.4m, its net profit would have increased by over 30%.  
  • Including a special DPS of HK$0.2139, full-year payout ratio reached 98.5%. Still, it has net cash of Rmb2.7bn or 24% of its market capitalisation.
  • Profitability outlook is encouraging – structural demand increase, higher ASP, and well-contained costs. Its land reserve is enough to be consumed for 82 years.

Hogy Medical (3593): A Prescription for Renewed Growth

By Mark Chadwick

  • NAVF and Dalton invest heavily in Hogy Medical, eyeing its market dominance and growth potential in disposable surgical equipment
  • Despite past underperformance, NAVF’s proactive engagement signals a push for a more aggressive overseas expansion
  • We see a number of continued catalysts for future shareholder value enhancement and improved corporate governance position

Jindal Stainless (JDSL IN): Steady Volume Growth- A Positive For The Long Term

By Tina Banerjee

  • Healthy sales volume (up by 9% YoY to 512,205 MT) drive revenues in Q3FY24
  • EBITDA per ton remain subdued, but expected to steadily gather strength
  • Acquisitions coupled with ramp up of existing capacity will help take the growth story forward

Marathon Digital Holdngs Inc (MARA) – Sunday, Dec 24, 2023

By Value Investors Club

  • Crypto mining requires high capital investment, faces volatile bitcoin prices, and will experience upcoming revenue cuts due to the halving on April 16th
  • Experts believe the risks outweigh the potential for short-term success in crypto mining, making it unlikely to generate significant free cash flow in the long term
  • Examples like MARA, which saw a significant increase in revenue at a small fraction of its market value, showcase the precarious nature of the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


China Resources Sanjiu (000999.CH) – 2023 Results Below Expectations; Short-Term Headwinds Remain

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Sanjiu’s 2023 performance was below expectations, mainly due to the VBP of TCM formula granules and the anti-corruption since 23Q3. But dividend payout ratio reached 51.96%, the highest since 2001.
  • The prescription drug business would be the core of Sanjiu’s performance changes in next two years, especially TCM injection business, which would be benefit from favorable medical insurance reimbursement policy.
  • Sanjiu’s management expects to achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2024, with net profit matching the level of revenue growth.We think 2024 performance growth would be lower than that in 2023.

Raffles Medical chair continues purchases; Sam Goi ups PSC stake

By Geoff Howie

  • Share buybacks by primary-listed companies Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to Mar 21, with S$257 million of net institutional inflow, as 23 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$26.5 million.
  • This followed her acquisition of 13,900 shares at an average price of S$0.48 per share on Mar 7, and 191,500 shares at S$0.49 per share on Mar 11.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: Latest Fed Policy Guidance Signals Green Light for Melt-Up in US Risky Assets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Latest Fed Policy Guidance Signals Green Light for Melt-Up in US Risky Assets
  • The Investor’s Cyclical Mystery
  • India Deep Dive: Record Allocations Mask Growing Underweight
  • Steno Signals #92 – The head fake reflation?
  • Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however


Latest Fed Policy Guidance Signals Green Light for Melt-Up in US Risky Assets

By Said Desaque

  • The Fed’s forward guidance remains unchanged from December. Three potential policy rate reductions in 2024. Economic growth expectations were revised upward, providing a bullish backdrop for higher corporate profit expectations. 
  • The early tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) will reduce the supply of notes and bonds to private investors, thereby boosting the attraction of risky assets and further easing financial conditions. 
  • Recent Bank of Japan policy changes need not be disastrous for US Treasuries, particularly as the Fed’s buying capacity will soon be enhanced by the arrival of QT tapering. 

The Investor’s Cyclical Mystery

By Cam Hui

  • Cyclically sensitive copper is rallying, but the copper/gold ratio has been trading sideways. Are the markets signaling a cyclical rebound, or not?
  • We find that the market is signaling the prospect of a cyclical recovery through its price action.
  • Stock prices have run ahead by expanding the forward P/E ratio. The upcoming earnings season will be an acid test of the cyclical recovery narrative.

India Deep Dive: Record Allocations Mask Growing Underweight

By Steven Holden

  • Record Allocations Mask Caution: Record investments in India contrast with a rising underweight, as selected managers pare back exposure.
  • Valuations Prompt Strategic Pause: Record underweights among Value funds reflect valuation concerns, with growth funds also seeing overweights decline.
  • India vs. China: Allocation Shifts: The stark contrast in allocation trends underscores a strategic pivot within EM, highlighting record divergences between the two.

Steno Signals #92 – The head fake reflation?

By Andreas Steno

  • It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found out there.
  • I went to London to meet with a bunch of the big funds in town, hot on the heels of Powell’s reflationary Fed meeting on Wednesday.
  • It almost annoyed me how “vanilla” my analysis had to be on the back of it, as the Fed is moving the needle lower and lower and lower on the implied Real Fed Funds rate every meeting currently, no matter the underlying developments in inflation and/or growth.

Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

  • Our early conviction in pro-cyclical trends keeps getting confirmed.
  • Initially, our nowcast indicator for China signaled a positive outlook, and most notably this week, the Li Keqiang Index has experienced its strongest monthly surge since 1999.
  • Consequently, Asian currencies and the AUD still appear undervalued when compared to the early yet unfolding expansion outside the US.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Most Read: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Rakuten Bank , Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings, Fast Retailing, Tencent, ZOZO Inc, HKBN Ltd, China Longyuan Power, APM Human Services Internation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • The Bigly March 2024 “Wednesday-Friday Trade” (Surprising Flows)
  • JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions
  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Introduces a Yutai Program to Goose the Mar24 Price, Mar25 EPS
  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) – Hostile Takeover Launched by AZ-Com Maruwa (9090)
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs
  • Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Zozo (3092) And Other ADDs Update
  • HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still At Wides
  • Merger Arb Mondays (25 Mar) – APM, Genex, C&F Logistics, Roland DG, IntelliCentrics, China TCM


The Bigly March 2024 “Wednesday-Friday Trade” (Surprising Flows)

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year it’s the same trade. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
  • But there may be ¥1.0-1.2trln+ to buy on one day into the close later this month, then ad hoc buys of ¥630bn and index sells of ~¥600bn  2 days later.
  • Over the past ten years, the two day return on the March trade is great. This year the Nikkei funding trade makes things more complicated. 

JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions

By Travis Lundy

  • For years I have tracked investor category flows in Japanese stocks because I find them quite informative. I write about them every so often in an insight series JAPAN FLOW.
  • The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically and that correlates well to One (relatively) Simple Indicator.
  • Foreigners have a lot of ammunition left. But cross-holding unwinds are picking up, and buybacks are too, and dividend reinvestments are smaller than public pension selling. Which way next?

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Introduces a Yutai Program to Goose the Mar24 Price, Mar25 EPS

By Travis Lundy

  • The Rakuten Bank offering in early December was a great time to buy the dip of you sold end-September. It should have been a good time to buy outright.
  • Unfortunately, the stock priced at ¥2,470, then closed that day at ¥2,500. That was the high for the next ten weeks. Two weeks later it was 20% lower. Ouch.
  • But it climbed out of the abyss, gained 35% in 8wks, then Thursday the Bank announced a new Shareholder Benefit program. Today the stock was +7%. Worth looking at details.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099) – Hostile Takeover Launched by AZ-Com Maruwa (9090)

By Travis Lundy

  • Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) last week announced its “Action to Implement Management That is Conscious of Cost of Capital and Stock Price”.
  • Today it announced AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) had announced its intention to launch a Tender Offer on C&F Logistics without having contacted C&F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum.
  • The deal is proposed at a 50% premium, with the goal of getting to a minimum of 50.00%. This will be interesting.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan’s Big Dividend

By David Blennerhassett


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 22 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent and ETFs

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were down small on the week. Larger caps down more. H-shares down more after a hard Friday.
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK35.8bn after $21.4bn the week before. SOUTHBOUND has net bought every day since the end of Chinese New Year.
  • The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week.

Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Zozo (3092) And Other ADDs Update

By Travis Lundy

  • ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) is +10% since the close after the Nikkei 225 inclusion announcement vs Nikkei225 +2%. Fellow upweight Nitori is up too. Disco and Socionext are up less.
  • All three inclusions and one upweight see considerable inclusion demand when compared to active holdings. Some more than others. 
  • Some trades here are more interesting than others, still. Cumulative excess volumes are one guide. Fundamentals, and flow dynamics are another.

HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

By Arun George

  • On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.
  • The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely China Mobile (941 HK)) were approached.
  • The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage. 

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still At Wides

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. Still. NORTHBOUND a huge net seller this week, but net buyers in size (RMB +86bn) over 8wks.
  • For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars