Smartkarma Daily Briefs

The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday, and a new buying streak started Tuesday. NORTHBOUND net bought the dip. Last week’s (double long) choice Longyuan Power was up 5.24%.
Narrow AH premia narrowed some. Wider AH premia saw Hs outperform. There is a LOT of spread left in this market. 7 recommendations this week.

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) – SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), QV Equities.
Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Mma Offshore (MRM AU).

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

By Daniel Hellberg

Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February
Major airlines’ decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent
But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation At IPO Price

By David Blennerhassett

After Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) was suspended on the 19th March pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I speculated a Scheme at the March 2021 IPO Price. And that’s what unfolded.
Li Zhenfu (SciClone’s NED), Assicurazioni Generali (G IM) and concert parties (collectively controlling 36.61%) have made an Offer at $18.80/share, a 33.9% premium to last close. Terms are final.
The long stop date is the 31 October. That’s too conservative. This could be wrapped up late July.

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31)- Milestone of Chinese Pharmaceutical Assets, Weight Loss Drug, Aier

Licensing-Out deals of Chinese pharmaceutical assets are indeed significant milestones, but we should not exaggerate its significance. The product strength itself/subsequent progress are the true sources of clinical benefits/commercial value.
In the field of weight loss drugs, first-mover advantage may not be that obvious. The possibility of latecomers to disrupt first-mover would not be that low or time-consuming.
For Aier, 23Q4 results could show an obvious rebound, leading to relatively high growth in 2023 full year. However, Aier’s problems are still there, which means Aier is not undervalued.

Tencent/Netease: Both Zeroed in March Game Approval

China announced game approval for the Feb batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
However, neither Tencent and Netease got any approval in March.

WuXi XDC Cayman (2268.HK) – Don’t Rush to Bottom Fish This Stock

Theoretically, there’s no need to doubt WuXi XDC’s growth momentum. What needs to be proven is how large the actual ADC market is, which determines how much valuation it deserves.
However, the biggest problem currently is geopolitical risks, which make performance forecasts groundless. In the context of Sino-US confrontation, there is “a hesitation” towards sustained high growth of WuXi XDC.
If several pieces of news are put together, this is not just about China CXO/TikTok being sanctioned by US. New balance point in the game between great powers will emerge.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , First Pacific Co, Xiaomi Corp

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

China Vanke
First Pacific Co
Xiaomi Corp

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , First Pacific Co, Xiaomi Corp

By Leonard Law, CFA

China Vanke
First Pacific Co
Xiaomi Corp

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”
The Good Case Companies Had More Opportunities to Reflect on Cost of Capital and Return on Capital

Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”

In mid-January, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links, and we are weeks ahead of the TSE. Working to get months ahead.
We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.

The Good Case Companies Had More Opportunities to Reflect on Cost of Capital and Return on Capital

By Aki Matsumoto

Characteristic of companies TSE introduced as good disclosure examples is that they include more companies with a high foreign ownership and those that pay relatively close attention to cash allocation.
Not all companies that are good examples have increased their valuations noticeably compared to before TSE market restructuring, but TSE has chosen them based on the content of their initiatives.
These companies didn’t create their cash allocation policies abruptly, but had more opportunities to think through cost of capital, return on capital and stock price through engagements with overseas investors.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Samsung C&T, Koito Manufacturing, Samsonite, Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd., HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Sciclone Pharmaceuticals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown
Lee Seo-Hyun’s Unexpected Return: Implications for Samsung’s Conglomerate Dynamics
Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang
Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO
Samsung C&T: Why Is Lee Seo-Hyun Returning as the President?
A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Very Wide
HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: The Investment Case
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Continues Falling from Extreme Level; CHT at Unusual Discount
Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”
Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) – SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA

Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown

We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
Why is it a disappointment? Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.
This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then…

Lee Seo-Hyun’s Unexpected Return: Implications for Samsung’s Conglomerate Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

Today, Lee Seo-hyun returned as the top executive at Samsung C&T, which officially announced her as the head of its Strategic Planning Division.
Her return to Samsung C&T might not just be a simple comeback – it could be seen as a setup for some big changes within the company.
Considering Samsung C&T’s Value-up Momentum, aligning with Lee Seo-hyun’s return, we must position for potential price impact, focusing on portfolio streamlining.

Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang

With a new Medium-Term Management Plan and a buyback, the stock was cheap as of Thursday’s close. It was less cheap after it went limit up +25% on Friday.
That put it in the camp of “it may go up more but probably not a lot”. It has told you about big divs and buybacks.
But model it up and they need to do more buybacks. Both to meet share price gains and the needs of legions of potential cross-holders looking to sell.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO

By David Blennerhassett

Lawson Inc (2651 JP)‘s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&A Guidelines.
Samsonite (1910 HK)‘s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.
Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.

Samsung C&T: Why Is Lee Seo-Hyun Returning as the President?

By Douglas Kim

On 29 March, it was reported that Lee Seo-Hyun has been appointed as the President of Samsung C&T (028260 KS), returning to the company after more than five years.
Lee Seo-Hyun is the third child of the late Samsung Chairman Lee Kun-Hee. She will be in charge of the overall strategic planning of Samsung C&T.
Many investors will likely to question this move, since they may question her ability to make strategic decisions that are in the best interests of all the minority investors.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Very Wide

The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday, and a new buying streak started Tuesday. NORTHBOUND net bought the dip. Last week’s (double long) choice Longyuan Power was up 5.24%.
Narrow AH premia narrowed some. Wider AH premia saw Hs outperform. There is a LOT of spread left in this market. 7 recommendations this week.

HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: The Investment Case

HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), the ship after-service subsidiary of HD Hyundai (267250 KS), aims to raise up to US$550 million.
The international book-building will run from 8 to 22 April, while the domestic book will open from 16 to 22 April. Pricing will be announced on 24 April.
The investment case rests on solid top-line growth, a healthy order book, rising margins, cash generation, and modest leverage.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Continues Falling from Extreme Level; CHT at Unusual Discount

TSMC: +11.8% Premium — Falling Closer to Its Historical Range
ASE: +9.2% Premium; Further Breakdown Could Indicate Return to Previous Trading Range
CHT: -1.8% Discount — Good Level to Long the Spread

Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”

In mid-January, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links, and we are weeks ahead of the TSE. Working to get months ahead.
We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) – SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), QV Equities.
Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Mma Offshore (MRM AU).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Australia Short Interest (Q1 2024): A Recap and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Australia Short Interest (Q1 2024): A Recap
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 29th): Evergreen Marine, United Integrate, Chicony Elec, Unimicron
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 29th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Lg Display, Ecopro, Hanmi
Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 28th): Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC
A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 29th): Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Tigermed, Cansino Biologics
Northbound Flows (Mar 28th): Wuliangye, CMB
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 29th): Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi, Lite-On

Australia Short Interest (Q1 2024): A Recap

By Brian Freitas

Total short interest in Australia is A$34.46bn and has decreased by A$1.36bn in constant price terms since the start of the year.
The highest short interest is in Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) and Goodman Group (GMG AU).
The largest increase in shorts as a percentage of shares outstanding is in IDP Education (IEL AU), Strike Energy (STX AU), Emerald Resources (EMR AU) and Develop Global (DVP AU).

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 29th): Evergreen Marine, United Integrate, Chicony Elec, Unimicron

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 29th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD76.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Evergreen Marine, United Integrate, Chicony Elec, Unimicron Tech, Hon Hai, Global Unichip, Asia Vital.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 29th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Lg Display, Ecopro, Hanmi

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of Mar 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD550.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,332mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Lg Display, Ecopro, Hanmi Semicon.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 28th): Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC.

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 29th): Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Tigermed, Cansino Biologics

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 127.6% as of Mar 29th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, materials and offset by real estate, information technology, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Tigermed, Cansino Biologics.

Northbound Flows (Mar 28th): Wuliangye, CMB

We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 28th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$835.0 million, led by financials, consumer staples, information technology sectors, and offset by health care, communication services, materials.
We highlight flows for stocks including Wuliangye, China Merchants Bank.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 29th): Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi, Lite-On

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,994.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD5,801mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi, Lite-On Tech, Mediatek, Umc, Chicony Elec, Inventec.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Daily Brief ESG: The Good Case Companies Had More Opportunities to Reflect on Cost of Capital and Return on Capital and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

The Good Case Companies Had More Opportunities to Reflect on Cost of Capital and Return on Capital

The Good Case Companies Had More Opportunities to Reflect on Cost of Capital and Return on Capital

By Aki Matsumoto

Characteristic of companies TSE introduced as good disclosure examples is that they include more companies with a high foreign ownership and those that pay relatively close attention to cash allocation.
Not all companies that are good examples have increased their valuations noticeably compared to before TSE market restructuring, but TSE has chosen them based on the content of their initiatives.
These companies didn’t create their cash allocation policies abruptly, but had more opportunities to think through cost of capital, return on capital and stock price through engagements with overseas investors.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update
Ohayo Japan | US PCE In-Line with Expectations
China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Mar 22-28, 2024

Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

By William Keating

Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing & predict quarterly earnings ahead of time
Initially we focused on MoM % increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter
We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at.

Ohayo Japan | US PCE In-Line with Expectations

By Mark Chadwick

The personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.8% YoY, meeting expectations. Compared to the previous month, it also went up by 0.3%, as predicted.
The ratio of cashless payments to total consumption in Japan hit a record high of 39.3% in 2023, marking a 3.3 percentage point increase from the previous year
Denso announced its decision to divest all Toyota Industries shares; Miura Kogyo announced its acquisition of Cleaver-Brooks, a US-based company

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Mar 22-28, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , First Pacific Co, Xiaomi Corp

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , First Pacific Co, Xiaomi Corp

By Leonard Law, CFA

China Vanke
First Pacific Co
Xiaomi Corp

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Daily Brief ECM: HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: The Investment Case and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: The Investment Case

HD Hyundai Marine Solutions IPO: The Investment Case

HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), the ship after-service subsidiary of HD Hyundai (267250 KS), aims to raise up to US$550 million.
The international book-building will run from 8 to 22 April, while the domestic book will open from 16 to 22 April. Pricing will be announced on 24 April.
The investment case rests on solid top-line growth, a healthy order book, rising margins, cash generation, and modest leverage.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Very Wide and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Very Wide
Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”
Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) – SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA
SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation At IPO Price
EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 25-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Very Wide

The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday, and a new buying streak started Tuesday. NORTHBOUND net bought the dip. Last week’s (double long) choice Longyuan Power was up 5.24%.
Narrow AH premia narrowed some. Wider AH premia saw Hs outperform. There is a LOT of spread left in this market. 7 recommendations this week.

Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”

In mid-January, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links, and we are weeks ahead of the TSE. Working to get months ahead.
We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.

Merger Arb Mondays (01 Apr) – SciClone, IntelliCentrics, CIMC Vehicles, Lawson, Roland DG, MMA

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), QV Equities.
Lowest spreads: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Mma Offshore (MRM AU).

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation At IPO Price

By David Blennerhassett

After Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) was suspended on the 19th March pursuant to the Takeovers Code, I speculated a Scheme at the March 2021 IPO Price. And that’s what unfolded.
Li Zhenfu (SciClone’s NED), Assicurazioni Generali (G IM) and concert parties (collectively controlling 36.61%) have made an Offer at $18.80/share, a 33.9% premium to last close. Terms are final.
The long stop date is the 31 October. That’s too conservative. This could be wrapped up late July.

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 25-Mar-24 to 29-Mar-24

By Sankalp Singh

On-The-Run Quarterly Options now capture India General Elections. Position buildup can be seen in the 21,000 put and 24,000 call strikes
Weekly and Monthly contract risk premia being squeezed lower due to holiday shortened trading but Quarterly contracts exhibit vol richness
Scale back short gamma exposure as reward-risk unappealing at current IV levels

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Continues Falling from Extreme Level; CHT at Unusual Discount and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Continues Falling from Extreme Level; CHT at Unusual Discount
Mediatek: Accelerating Momentum in Automotive, Data Center, and AI Memory Solutions
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Quanta Surging on Nvidia Server Orders; Nanya Results Ahead; Intel Foundry Event
Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent
Centurion Corp (CENT SP) – Paving the Way for Workers and Students
Tencent/Netease: Both Zeroed in March Game Approval
China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31)- Milestone of Chinese Pharmaceutical Assets, Weight Loss Drug, Aier
Post Nvidia GTC Industry Impact: Large Quanta Server Win Just the Beginning of an Order Wave?
Reborn from Ashes and Possible Target
WuXi XDC Cayman (2268.HK) – Don’t Rush to Bottom Fish This Stock

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Continues Falling from Extreme Level; CHT at Unusual Discount

TSMC: +11.8% Premium — Falling Closer to Its Historical Range
ASE: +9.2% Premium; Further Breakdown Could Indicate Return to Previous Trading Range
CHT: -1.8% Discount — Good Level to Long the Spread

Mediatek: Accelerating Momentum in Automotive, Data Center, and AI Memory Solutions

Mediatek is advancing full speed with recent industry collaborations for automotive chips, data center connectivity solutions, and AI memory solutions.
In particular, the company has entered the market for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), with partnerships announced with Foxconn and Ranovus.
While the stock has rallied and re-rated, consensus forward estimates do not appear overly demanding and could still have room to increase further.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Quanta Surging on Nvidia Server Orders; Nanya Results Ahead; Intel Foundry Event

Quanta surged with major server wins from Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon. Nanya Tech results are two weeks ahead and Intel will host a webinar this week about its Foundry business.
Mediatek: Accelerating Momentum in Automotive, Data Center, and AI Memory Solutions
Hon Hai (Foxconn): After the 50% Surge, Where Can It Go From Here?

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

By Daniel Hellberg

Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February
Major airlines’ decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent
But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43

Centurion Corp (CENT SP) – Paving the Way for Workers and Students

By Angus Mackintosh

Centurion Corp (CENT SP) is the leading light in purpose workers’ accommodation in Singapore and Malaysia, with high occupancy rates and healthy rental reversions, with a long-term secular growth backdrop.
The company is also involved in purpose-built student accommodation in centres of excellence for education including the UK, Australia, and the US in a highly sought-after asset space.
The outlook for both worker and student accommodation looks positive for the coming two years. Valuations look attractive with Centurion Corp trading at a 56% discount to NAV.

Tencent/Netease: Both Zeroed in March Game Approval

China announced game approval for the Feb batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
However, neither Tencent and Netease got any approval in March.

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.31)- Milestone of Chinese Pharmaceutical Assets, Weight Loss Drug, Aier

Licensing-Out deals of Chinese pharmaceutical assets are indeed significant milestones, but we should not exaggerate its significance. The product strength itself/subsequent progress are the true sources of clinical benefits/commercial value.
In the field of weight loss drugs, first-mover advantage may not be that obvious. The possibility of latecomers to disrupt first-mover would not be that low or time-consuming.
For Aier, 23Q4 results could show an obvious rebound, leading to relatively high growth in 2023 full year. However, Aier’s problems are still there, which means Aier is not undervalued.

Post Nvidia GTC Industry Impact: Large Quanta Server Win Just the Beginning of an Order Wave?

Just a week after Nvidia’s GTC conference, Quanta has reportedly secured large orders for new Nvidia Blackwell-based servers from Google, Amazon AWS, and Meta.
Other firms showcasing Nvidia servers at GTC include Wiwynn, Gigabyte, Pegatron, Asus, Hon Hai (Ingrasys), Wistron, Dell, and Super Micro. There could be a higher probability of new order wins.
Stock Focus: Asustek — Improving outlook as a play on both AI PCs and AI servers.

Reborn from Ashes and Possible Target

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The Italian Treasury sold an additional 12.5% stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM), raising €650 million as part of re-privatization efforts following the 2021 failed attempt.
The Treasury’s divestment makes BMPS more appealing for buyers. BMPS still trades at attractive valuation multiples. The bank announces approval from the ECB for a €0.25 cash dividend per share.
Economy Minister Giorgetti and PM Meloni aim to boost competition through privatization, favoring a merger with another mid-sized Italian bank, possibly BPER Banca or Banco BPM.

WuXi XDC Cayman (2268.HK) – Don’t Rush to Bottom Fish This Stock