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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Mar 31
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Roland DG Corp, Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (31 Mar) – Roland DG, Lawson, SciClone, Probiotec, MMA Offshore, Bharti Hexacom
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

Weekly Deals Digest (31 Mar) – Roland DG, Lawson, SciClone, Probiotec, MMA Offshore, Bharti Hexacom

By Arun George

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.
  • The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.

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Mar 31
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung C&T: Why Is Lee Seo-Hyun Returning as the President?
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024): NB Turns Net Buyer Again, Flows Go Idiosyncratic

Samsung C&T: Why Is Lee Seo-Hyun Returning as the President?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 29 March, it was reported that Lee Seo-Hyun has been appointed as the President of Samsung C&T (028260 KS), returning to the company after more than five years.
  • Lee Seo-Hyun is the third child of the late Samsung Chairman Lee Kun-Hee. She will be in charge of the overall strategic planning of Samsung C&T.
  • Many investors will likely to question this move, since they may question her ability to make strategic decisions that are in the best interests of all the minority investors. 

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024): NB Turns Net Buyer Again, Flows Go Idiosyncratic

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 5.4bn of A-shares on decent volume after buying RMB 25bn net the two weeks before.
  • The volume is still chasing momentum, and dip buying on the buys. Selling dips on losers. CATL the big buy, and less passive-feeling than last week.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Mar 31
0

Daily Brief Financials: Atour Lifestyle Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years

By Eric Wen

  • Atour reported C4Q23 revenue vs. our estimate/consensus by 18%/21% and guided a robust 30% yoy revenue growth for 2024, outpacing the consensus by 12% and our estimate by 7%
  • C4Q23 operating margin decline was due to one-off leased hotel impairment and seasonality in retail marketing. We foresee stable margin in 2024;
  • We maintain our BUY rating and keep our TP at US$37.5, implying a 2024 P/E of 34x, vs. currently trading at 16x.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Mar 31
0

Daily Brief Consumer: PDD Holdings, Lawson Inc, Bajaj Auto Ltd, Toyota Industries, Koito Manufacturing, Ultrajaya Milk, Samsonite and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone
  • Postcard from Agra | India’s 3W EV Adaptation On the Ground
  • Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown
  • Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang
  • Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Dairy and Tea Recovery in Motion
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO

Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

By Steven Holden

  • This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our Asia Ex-Japan fund universe.
  • We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.
  • Pinduoduo Inc and UltraTech Cement make gains, Sunny Optical sees ownership drift south, New Oriental Education moves off the lows.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone

By David Blennerhassett

Postcard from Agra | India’s 3W EV Adaptation On the Ground

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • With the “Postcard” series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.
  • For this postcard, we travel to the magnificent and iconic city of Agra. 
  • We were pleasantly surprised by the rapid pace of electrification among three-wheelers, which is the topic of this postcard.

Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
  • Why is it a disappointment? Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.
  • This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then…

Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • With a new Medium-Term Management Plan and a buyback, the stock was cheap as of Thursday’s close. It was less cheap after it went limit up +25% on Friday.
  • That put it in the camp of “it may go up more but probably not a lot”. It has told you about big divs and buybacks.
  • But model it up and they need to do more buybacks. Both to meet share price gains and the needs of legions of potential cross-holders looking to sell. 

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Dairy and Tea Recovery in Motion

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) 4Q2023 and FY2023 confirmed a recovery on both its dairy and carton tea segments, with strong growth and a normalisation of raw material costs boosting margins.
  • ULTJ continue to focus on new product launches in dairy and carton tea and growing its distribution network with its new distrbution centre at MM1200 under pilot testing.
  • Prospects for FY2024 look healthy with expanding distribution and a number of new products helping to drive growth. Valuations look reasonable versus listed competitor Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ).  

Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Lawson Inc (2651 JP)‘s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&A Guidelines.
  • Samsonite (1910 HK)‘s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.
  • Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Mar 31
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung C&T: Why Is Lee Seo-Hyun Returning as the President?

Samsung C&T: Why Is Lee Seo-Hyun Returning as the President?

By Douglas Kim

  • On 29 March, it was reported that Lee Seo-Hyun has been appointed as the President of Samsung C&T (028260 KS), returning to the company after more than five years.
  • Lee Seo-Hyun is the third child of the late Samsung Chairman Lee Kun-Hee. She will be in charge of the overall strategic planning of Samsung C&T.
  • Many investors will likely to question this move, since they may question her ability to make strategic decisions that are in the best interests of all the minority investors. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 31
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Ultrajaya Milk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Dairy and Tea Recovery in Motion

Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) – Dairy and Tea Recovery in Motion

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) 4Q2023 and FY2023 confirmed a recovery on both its dairy and carton tea segments, with strong growth and a normalisation of raw material costs boosting margins.
  • ULTJ continue to focus on new product launches in dairy and carton tea and growing its distribution network with its new distrbution centre at MM1200 under pilot testing.
  • Prospects for FY2024 look healthy with expanding distribution and a number of new products helping to drive growth. Valuations look reasonable versus listed competitor Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ).  

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 31
0

Daily Brief India: Bajaj Auto Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Postcard from Agra | India’s 3W EV Adaptation On the Ground

Postcard from Agra | India’s 3W EV Adaptation On the Ground

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • With the “Postcard” series, our objective is to bring to our readers on-ground insights based on interactions across key channels located in tier 2 and tier 3 locations.
  • For this postcard, we travel to the magnificent and iconic city of Agra. 
  • We were pleasantly surprised by the rapid pace of electrification among three-wheelers, which is the topic of this postcard.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 31
0

Daily Brief Japan: Lawson Inc, Roland DG Corp, Toyota Industries, Koito Manufacturing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone
  • Weekly Deals Digest (31 Mar) – Roland DG, Lawson, SciClone, Probiotec, MMA Offshore, Bharti Hexacom
  • Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown
  • Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone

By David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (31 Mar) – Roland DG, Lawson, SciClone, Probiotec, MMA Offshore, Bharti Hexacom

By Arun George

Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
  • Why is it a disappointment? Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.
  • This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then…

Koito Mfg – Stock Over-Pops on New MTMP/Buyback; There Will Be Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • With a new Medium-Term Management Plan and a buyback, the stock was cheap as of Thursday’s close. It was less cheap after it went limit up +25% on Friday.
  • That put it in the camp of “it may go up more but probably not a lot”. It has told you about big divs and buybacks.
  • But model it up and they need to do more buybacks. Both to meet share price gains and the needs of legions of potential cross-holders looking to sell. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 31
0

Daily Brief China: PDD Holdings, Tencent, Samsonite, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO
  • [Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024): NB Turns Net Buyer Again, Flows Go Idiosyncratic

Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

By Steven Holden

  • This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our Asia Ex-Japan fund universe.
  • We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.
  • Pinduoduo Inc and UltraTech Cement make gains, Sunny Optical sees ownership drift south, New Oriental Education moves off the lows.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.
  • The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Lawson, Samsonite, Socionext, ZOZO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Lawson Inc (2651 JP)‘s Tender Offer is still too cheap. It is also a somewhat non-transparent and unfair process. And it does not adhere to the METI Fair M&A Guidelines.
  • Samsonite (1910 HK)‘s pursuit of a dual listing (primary or secondary?) appears to be put the buyout on the backburner. For now.
  • Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) have a large part of the Max Real World Float to displace. Neither of those two names are outlandishly expensive.

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years

By Eric Wen

  • Atour reported C4Q23 revenue vs. our estimate/consensus by 18%/21% and guided a robust 30% yoy revenue growth for 2024, outpacing the consensus by 12% and our estimate by 7%
  • C4Q23 operating margin decline was due to one-off leased hotel impairment and seasonality in retail marketing. We foresee stable margin in 2024;
  • We maintain our BUY rating and keep our TP at US$37.5, implying a 2024 P/E of 34x, vs. currently trading at 16x.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024): NB Turns Net Buyer Again, Flows Go Idiosyncratic

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 5.4bn of A-shares on decent volume after buying RMB 25bn net the two weeks before.
  • The volume is still chasing momentum, and dip buying on the buys. Selling dips on losers. CATL the big buy, and less passive-feeling than last week.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Mar 31
0

Most Read: ZOZO Inc, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A, Samsung C&T, NIFTY Index, PDD Holdings, Lawson Inc, Roland DG Corp, Tencent, Toyota Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up
  • Lee Seo-Hyun’s Unexpected Return: Implications for Samsung’s Conglomerate Dynamics
  • EQD | Is the NIFTY’s Rally Halting?
  • Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone
  • Weekly Deals Digest (31 Mar) – Roland DG, Lawson, SciClone, Probiotec, MMA Offshore, Bharti Hexacom
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy
  • Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

By Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

By Brian Freitas

  • There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.
  • There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.
  • Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 

Lee Seo-Hyun’s Unexpected Return: Implications for Samsung’s Conglomerate Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today, Lee Seo-hyun returned as the top executive at Samsung C&T, which officially announced her as the head of its Strategic Planning Division.
  • Her return to Samsung C&T might not just be a simple comeback – it could be seen as a setup for some big changes within the company.
  • Considering Samsung C&T’s Value-up Momentum, aligning with Lee Seo-hyun’s return, we must position for potential price impact, focusing on portfolio streamlining.

EQD | Is the NIFTY’s Rally Halting?

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index has been rallying for months, but in the last few weeks there has been a considerable slow down in its rising pace.
  • Currently the index is at a point where it could pull back this coming week, based on our MRM patterns reading.
  • A possible alternative scenario would be a continuation of the rally for a total of 4-5 weeks up in a row.

Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

By Steven Holden

  • This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our Asia Ex-Japan fund universe.
  • We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.
  • Pinduoduo Inc and UltraTech Cement make gains, Sunny Optical sees ownership drift south, New Oriental Education moves off the lows.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:MMA, Boral, Orecorp, Probiotec, CPMC, CIMC Vehicle, Roland DG, Welbe, SciClone

By David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (31 Mar) – Roland DG, Lawson, SciClone, Probiotec, MMA Offshore, Bharti Hexacom

By Arun George

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2024); Strong Net Buying on Tencent, Telcos, and Energy

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were down on the week, but rallied Thursday and Friday.
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK8.5bn after $57bn the two weeks before. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive net daily buy streak Monday, then started buying again.
  • The flavour of SOUTHBOUND buying has been high-div SOEs for months and months. That is starting to change slightly. Tencent was the top net buy this week. Again.

Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
  • Why is it a disappointment? Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.
  • This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then…

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free