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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Indonesia: Delta Djakarta and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Delta Djakarta (DLTA IJ) Q4 2023: Return to Growth, Prefer MLBI IJ as Market Leader


Delta Djakarta (DLTA IJ) Q4 2023: Return to Growth, Prefer MLBI IJ as Market Leader

By Sameer Taneja

  • Delta Djakarta (DLTA IJ) came out with subpar FY23 results, with revenues/profits down 5%/13% YoY with a loss of marketshare to Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) 
  • Q4 2023 showed an improvement, with revenues/profits up 1.5%/4% YoY, breaking a sequence of three consecutive quarters of negative growth.
  • Trading at 13x FY23 PE with 25% of the market cap in cash and 9-10% dividend yield, the stock is worth exploring, although we prefer Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) 

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Daily Brief India: Waaree Energies Limited, Rakuten and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Waaree Energies Pre-IPO – Riding the Anti-China US Wave
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Rakuten, Tata Motors ADR


Waaree Energies Pre-IPO – Riding the Anti-China US Wave

By Sumeet Singh

  • Waaree Energies  is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Waaree Energies is a solar PV module manufacturer in India with an aggregate installed capacity of 12 GW, as of Jun 2023. 
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s past performance.

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Rakuten, Tata Motors ADR

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Tencent, IntelliCentrics Global Holding, Shenzhen International, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, Tencent Music, Polestar Automotive Holding UK, Dongfang Electric, Wuxi Biologics, Rakuten and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Consumption Weekly (1 Apr 2024): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Midea
  • IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Special Dividend Vote on 18 April
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Decent Rebound
  • CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Deep Value High Dividend Yield Idea; New Launches to Drive Growth
  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group: Initiation Of Coverage – Core Business Strategy
  • Polestar Automotive: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The 3 Biggest Hindrances In Its Path For Profitable Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Good Profit, Record Orders
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – The Crisis Is Not Over
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Rakuten, Tata Motors ADR


China Consumption Weekly (1 Apr 2024): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Midea

By Ming Lu

  • There is a rumor in social media that Tencent will dismiss 10% – 30% of its employees.
  • Alibaba withdrew the IPO application of its subsidiary Cainiao and all the other IPOs were halted as well.
  • Xiaomi began to sell its first vehicle model SU7, but it is too late for the company to enter the market.

IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Special Dividend Vote on 18 April

By Arun George

  • The IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) IFA considers the terms for the disposal of assets to symplr software as fair and reasonable. The EGM vote is on 18 April.
  • The consideration will be distributed to shareholders as a special dividend with a minimum and maximum of US$0.52 (HK$4.07) and US$0.55 (HK$4.30), respectively. 
  • Irrevocables ensure that the EGM vote will pass. At the last close and for a 7 May payment, the gross and annualised spread of the minimum dividend is 2.8%/33.6%.

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Decent Rebound

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Shenzhen International (152 HK) saw its FY23 earnings reaccelerated, supported by gains from the logistics park transformation business. Earnings even surged 169.1% YoY in 2H23. 
  • REIT issuance on two logistics assets, increase in areas of logistics projects, gains from South China Logistics Park transformation, and better Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) will fuel FY24.
  • A better debt structure will save finance costs. Its 0.45x P/B, or 1.5SD below the 5-year average, is cheap given its proven ability to realise underlying asset value.

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Deep Value High Dividend Yield Idea; New Launches to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) reported steady growth in finished drugs in 2023. New products including Mingfule, Yilouda, and Anfulike achieved rapid sales ramp-up due to inclusion in the NRDL.
  • The company expects to launch 50 innovative drugs in the next five years, which will provide continuous momentum. The company further aims for 17 common generic launches during 2024–2025.
  • CSPC Pharmaceutical shares are trading at a P/E of 11.3x, lowest level seen in last five years, and cheaper than peers. Dividend yield remains attractive at 4%+.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group: Initiation Of Coverage – Core Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) posted robust results in its fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call.
  • Increasing subscribers and expedited revenue growth were notable positives, taking the total number of subscribers to the 100 million milestone due to the company’s focus on content leadership, platform value, and offering a high-quality user experience.
  • Yet, the company also faced some headwinds, particularly in the social entertainment business.

Polestar Automotive: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The 3 Biggest Hindrances In Its Path For Profitable Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Polestar.
  • The company saw their highest-ever delivery volume for the Q3 2023 period.
  • The said period witnessed record deliveries of 13,976 vehicles, representing a growth of 51% compared to the same period in the previous year.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Good Profit, Record Orders

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) reached another record year with net profit surging 24.2% in FY23. Favourable product mix has benefited gross margin which expanded 0.8pp YoY.
  • Record new orders of Rmb86.5bn (+31.9% YoY) have been signed and there is a recovery in momentum in 4Q23. Its end-FY23 backlog should be enough to cover 3.1x FY24F revenue.
  • DEC is well-positioned to capture the demand for hydrogen energy and power storage. With 19.3% 3-year earnings CAGR, its 5.1x PER and 8.2% dividend yield are attractive.

Wuxi Biologics (2269.HK) – The Crisis Is Not Over

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi Bio’s profit was disappointing.The 41 new orders added last December were small orders, which cannot contribute decent revenue/profits.The goal of gross margin to reach 45% by 2026 seems challenging.
  • The management has become more cautious in its guidance for 2024. 2024H1’s performance could be disappointing. The key is to see whether the performance in 2024 full-year would meet expectations.
  • Due to BIOSECURE Act, foreign CXOs are planning to seize WuXi Bio’s market share. We are not sure whether Europe (the US’s ally), will follow suit and enact similar legislation.

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Rakuten, Tata Motors ADR

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Rakuten, JSR Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units… Who Wins and How? Well… It’s Complicated
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone
  • Solving the Issue of Increasing Trading Liquidity in Japanese Stocks Is More Than Analyst Coverage..
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Rakuten, Tata Motors ADR


If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units… Who Wins and How? Well… It’s Complicated

By Travis Lundy

  • A couple of years ago, Rakuten (4755 JP) – burning through cash to start its mobile business – announced it would its Bank and Securities units. Bank listed. Securities didn’t.
  • Mizuho ended up buying 49% of Securities. Today, it was announced there would be discussions to put Bank, Securities, Card, and Insurance in a new listed Holdco.
  • How this works will end up being complicated. More complicated than it should be. But the complexity would make this more of a win-win for everyone. 

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Solving the Issue of Increasing Trading Liquidity in Japanese Stocks Is More Than Analyst Coverage..

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Market structure is the main factor hindering trading liquidity. In addition to the cross-holdings that remain, ETFs held by the Bank of Japan cast a shadow over trading liquidity.
  • Companies are key on this issue. In addition to accelerating to reducte cross-shareholdings, English-language disclosure of annual securities reports, which are in high demand by long-term investors, should be promoted.
  • If long-term overseas investors get serious about investing in Japanese equities, the increase in trading liquidity in Japanese equities will be sustainable, and broker coverage will naturally expand.

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Rakuten, Tata Motors ADR

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Most Read: Toyota Industries, Sciclone Pharmaceuticals, Samsung C&T, Rakuten, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, HYBE , Isetan Singapore, Amorepacific Corp, IntelliCentrics Global Holding, HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown
  • SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation At IPO Price
  • Lee Seo-Hyun’s Unexpected Return: Implications for Samsung’s Conglomerate Dynamics
  • If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units… Who Wins and How? Well… It’s Complicated
  • Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”
  • KRX Imposes a 20% Cap on Weight Ceiling in Sector ETFs with Few Constituents
  • Isetan Singapore (ISET SP): Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)’s 154% Premium Scheme Offer
  • Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2024
  • IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Special Dividend Vote on 18 April
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2024


Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
  • Why is it a disappointment? Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.
  • This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then…

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Privatisation At IPO Price

By David Blennerhassett


Lee Seo-Hyun’s Unexpected Return: Implications for Samsung’s Conglomerate Dynamics

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today, Lee Seo-hyun returned as the top executive at Samsung C&T, which officially announced her as the head of its Strategic Planning Division.
  • Her return to Samsung C&T might not just be a simple comeback – it could be seen as a setup for some big changes within the company.
  • Considering Samsung C&T’s Value-up Momentum, aligning with Lee Seo-hyun’s return, we must position for potential price impact, focusing on portfolio streamlining.

If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units… Who Wins and How? Well… It’s Complicated

By Travis Lundy

  • A couple of years ago, Rakuten (4755 JP) – burning through cash to start its mobile business – announced it would its Bank and Securities units. Bank listed. Securities didn’t.
  • Mizuho ended up buying 49% of Securities. Today, it was announced there would be discussions to put Bank, Securities, Card, and Insurance in a new listed Holdco.
  • How this works will end up being complicated. More complicated than it should be. But the complexity would make this more of a win-win for everyone. 

Updated Tool (31Mar24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”

By Travis Lundy

  • In mid-January, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
  • The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links, and we are weeks ahead of the TSE. Working to get months ahead.
  • We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.

KRX Imposes a 20% Cap on Weight Ceiling in Sector ETFs with Few Constituents

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX limits individual stock weight to 20% in ETFs with few constituents. KRX confirms working on it, with an official announcement expected soon.
  • Excludes index ETFs like KOSPI 200. KRX hasn’t finalized criteria for constituent number but expected to involve fewer than 30 stocks.
  • This could open new passive trading opportunities. Sector ETF cap at 30%, large AUM ones offer noteworthy trading potential.

Isetan Singapore (ISET SP): Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)’s 154% Premium Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Isetan Singapore (ISET SP) disclosed privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP) at S$7.20 per share, a 153.5% premium to the last close.
  • The high takeover premium reflects the fair value of investment properties of S$300.4 million, i.e., S$7.28 per share, marginally above the offer price.
  • The offer is attractive and 2.1% higher than the all-time high. The vote should comfortably get up. The scheme meeting is from early to mid-July. 

Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 2Q 2024.
  • Although the discount on the preferred shares versus the common shares has been gradually narrowing in the past decade, this discount increased from end of 2021 to 1 April 2024.
  • On a longer timeframe (3-4 years), we believe this discount could narrow further to the 20-25% range, which provides additional opportunities for the Korean preferred shares to further make gains.

IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Special Dividend Vote on 18 April

By Arun George

  • The IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) IFA considers the terms for the disposal of assets to symplr software as fair and reasonable. The EGM vote is on 18 April.
  • The consideration will be distributed to shareholders as a special dividend with a minimum and maximum of US$0.52 (HK$4.07) and US$0.55 (HK$4.30), respectively. 
  • Irrevocables ensure that the EGM vote will pass. At the last close and for a 7 May payment, the gross and annualised spread of the minimum dividend is 2.8%/33.6%.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2024.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 26 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.  
  • These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal. [CJ Corp vs CJ Cheiljedang & Hanjin KAL Corp vs Korean Air Lines].

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Daily Brief ESG: Solving the Issue of Increasing Trading Liquidity in Japanese Stocks Is More Than Analyst Coverage.. and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Solving the Issue of Increasing Trading Liquidity in Japanese Stocks Is More Than Analyst Coverage..


Solving the Issue of Increasing Trading Liquidity in Japanese Stocks Is More Than Analyst Coverage..

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Market structure is the main factor hindering trading liquidity. In addition to the cross-holdings that remain, ETFs held by the Bank of Japan cast a shadow over trading liquidity.
  • Companies are key on this issue. In addition to accelerating to reducte cross-shareholdings, English-language disclosure of annual securities reports, which are in high demand by long-term investors, should be promoted.
  • If long-term overseas investors get serious about investing in Japanese equities, the increase in trading liquidity in Japanese equities will be sustainable, and broker coverage will naturally expand.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | No Hurry to Cut Rates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | No Hurry to Cut Rates
  • Mining Monthly: March Edition
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended March 28, 2024
  • The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending March 29, 2024


Ohayo Japan | No Hurry to Cut Rates

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks closed mixed to start the second quarter of 2024 amid rising US treasury yields
  • In Japan, 191 companies announced stock splits in the fiscal year, up 60% from last year, aiming to attract retail investors by lowering prices
  • Tokyo Electron Ltd. [8035] will provide an additional 590 billion yen ($3.89 billion) in support to chipmaker Rapidus in fiscal 2024

Mining Monthly: March Edition

By Atrium Research

  • Following a long period of consolidation, gold broke out in March, hitting record highs, and continuing to push higher as we enter April.
  • Silver and copper also had strong months up 10% and 4%, respectively.
  • More notably, we are finally seeing the equities outperform their underlying metal price with the GDX, SIL, and COPX up 22.7%, 21.1% and 19.4%, respectively, significantly outperforming broader markets.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Week Ended March 28, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 1.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.5%).
  • Energy Technology (13.2% of the index) was up by 4.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (56.8% of the index) was up by 1.3%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (24.0% of index) was up 1.0%.
  • Top 10 Performers: KULR, OUST, NKLA, CRGE, SUNW, SX, NVVE, REX, SLDP, EXRO

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending March 29, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • It was another strong week for cannabis stocks, with the US cannabis MSOS ETF gaining 4.05%.

  • The fund added $3.6 million in inflows last week. The global YOLO ETF climbed 6.22%, as several Canadian companies outperformed.

  • AYR Wellness (CSE: AYR, OTCQX: AYWRF) had the best week, rising 23.64%. CEO David Goubert will be joining us on Higher Exchanges on Thursday. 


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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (1st Apr 2024) – Shinhan and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (1st Apr 2024) – Shinhan, GlobalWafers, Mankind, Hyundai Marine, Bharti Hexacom, ChaPanda
  • Ibotta IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Waaree Energies Pre-IPO – Riding the Anti-China US Wave


ECM Weekly (1st Apr 2024) – Shinhan, GlobalWafers, Mankind, Hyundai Marine, Bharti Hexacom, ChaPanda

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) and Bharti Hexacom were in the market trying to raise over US$500m each.
  • Placements flow continued unabated this week as well, India, Taiwan and South Korea seeing large blocks.

Ibotta IPO Valuation Analysis

By Andrei Zakharov

  • In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and outline revenue growth scenario under my base case.
  • Considering Ibotta achieved profitability in 2023 driven by strong growth in the segment of third-party publishers, I view EV/Revenue as the most appropriate methodology to value Ibotta.
  • I have a positive view of the upcoming Ibotta IPO. The company’s efficient B2B2C business model, success-based marketing approach and scale provide Ibotta with a long runway of growth.

Waaree Energies Pre-IPO – Riding the Anti-China US Wave

By Sumeet Singh

  • Waaree Energies  is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Waaree Energies is a solar PV module manufacturer in India with an aggregate installed capacity of 12 GW, as of Jun 2023. 
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s past performance.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2024
  • China Consumption Weekly (1 Apr 2024): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Midea
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2024
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Decent Rebound
  • Portfolio Update: March 2024
  • CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Deep Value High Dividend Yield Idea; New Launches to Drive Growth
  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group: Initiation Of Coverage – Core Business Strategy
  • Polestar Automotive: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The 3 Biggest Hindrances In Its Path For Profitable Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Vanguard (5347.TT): A Consensus View to Build a New 12″ Fab in Singapore.
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Good Profit, Record Orders


Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 2Q 2024.
  • Although the discount on the preferred shares versus the common shares has been gradually narrowing in the past decade, this discount increased from end of 2021 to 1 April 2024.
  • On a longer timeframe (3-4 years), we believe this discount could narrow further to the 20-25% range, which provides additional opportunities for the Korean preferred shares to further make gains.

China Consumption Weekly (1 Apr 2024): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Midea

By Ming Lu

  • There is a rumor in social media that Tencent will dismiss 10% – 30% of its employees.
  • Alibaba withdrew the IPO application of its subsidiary Cainiao and all the other IPOs were halted as well.
  • Xiaomi began to sell its first vehicle model SU7, but it is too late for the company to enter the market.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2024.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 26 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months, suggesting increased capital allocation to Korean holdcos relative to their opcos.  
  • These pairs could generate trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal. [CJ Corp vs CJ Cheiljedang & Hanjin KAL Corp vs Korean Air Lines].

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): A Decent Rebound

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Shenzhen International (152 HK) saw its FY23 earnings reaccelerated, supported by gains from the logistics park transformation business. Earnings even surged 169.1% YoY in 2H23. 
  • REIT issuance on two logistics assets, increase in areas of logistics projects, gains from South China Logistics Park transformation, and better Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) will fuel FY24.
  • A better debt structure will save finance costs. Its 0.45x P/B, or 1.5SD below the 5-year average, is cheap given its proven ability to realise underlying asset value.

Portfolio Update: March 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • I recently had a conversation with a close friend and fellow investor, during which he shared his current research interest in the dollar store concept.
  • He emphasized that this business model aligns with criteria conducive to long-term shareholder returns.
  • Given the scarce presence of dollar stores in Germany, primarily due to socioeconomic factors, I sought clarification on the underlying concept from him.

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Deep Value High Dividend Yield Idea; New Launches to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) reported steady growth in finished drugs in 2023. New products including Mingfule, Yilouda, and Anfulike achieved rapid sales ramp-up due to inclusion in the NRDL.
  • The company expects to launch 50 innovative drugs in the next five years, which will provide continuous momentum. The company further aims for 17 common generic launches during 2024–2025.
  • CSPC Pharmaceutical shares are trading at a P/E of 11.3x, lowest level seen in last five years, and cheaper than peers. Dividend yield remains attractive at 4%+.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group: Initiation Of Coverage – Core Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) posted robust results in its fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call.
  • Increasing subscribers and expedited revenue growth were notable positives, taking the total number of subscribers to the 100 million milestone due to the company’s focus on content leadership, platform value, and offering a high-quality user experience.
  • Yet, the company also faced some headwinds, particularly in the social entertainment business.

Polestar Automotive: Initiation Of Coverage – What Are The 3 Biggest Hindrances In Its Path For Profitable Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Polestar.
  • The company saw their highest-ever delivery volume for the Q3 2023 period.
  • The said period witnessed record deliveries of 13,976 vehicles, representing a growth of 51% compared to the same period in the previous year.

Vanguard (5347.TT): A Consensus View to Build a New 12″ Fab in Singapore.

By Patrick Liao

  • The utilization rate for Vanguard in 1Q24F is at a recent low of 50-53%, indicating that the utilization rate is expected to increase from 2Q24 onwards.  
  • Vanguard should consider building a new 12″ Fab in Singapore, aligning with our potential acquisition of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s 40nm and above business.
  • In conclusion, the future outlook appears promising for the coming 3~4 years.  

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Good Profit, Record Orders

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) reached another record year with net profit surging 24.2% in FY23. Favourable product mix has benefited gross margin which expanded 0.8pp YoY.
  • Record new orders of Rmb86.5bn (+31.9% YoY) have been signed and there is a recovery in momentum in 4Q23. Its end-FY23 backlog should be enough to cover 3.1x FY24F revenue.
  • DEC is well-positioned to capture the demand for hydrogen energy and power storage. With 19.3% 3-year earnings CAGR, its 5.1x PER and 8.2% dividend yield are attractive.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units… Who Wins and How? Well… It’s Complicated and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units… Who Wins and How? Well… It’s Complicated
  • Isetan Singapore (ISET SP): Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)’s 154% Premium Scheme Offer
  • KRX Imposes a 20% Cap on Weight Ceiling in Sector ETFs with Few Constituents
  • IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Special Dividend Vote on 18 April
  • Isetan Singapore (ISET SP): Mitsukoshi’s BIGLY Premium Offer
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone


If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units… Who Wins and How? Well… It’s Complicated

By Travis Lundy

  • A couple of years ago, Rakuten (4755 JP) – burning through cash to start its mobile business – announced it would its Bank and Securities units. Bank listed. Securities didn’t.
  • Mizuho ended up buying 49% of Securities. Today, it was announced there would be discussions to put Bank, Securities, Card, and Insurance in a new listed Holdco.
  • How this works will end up being complicated. More complicated than it should be. But the complexity would make this more of a win-win for everyone. 

Isetan Singapore (ISET SP): Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)’s 154% Premium Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Isetan Singapore (ISET SP) disclosed privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP) at S$7.20 per share, a 153.5% premium to the last close.
  • The high takeover premium reflects the fair value of investment properties of S$300.4 million, i.e., S$7.28 per share, marginally above the offer price.
  • The offer is attractive and 2.1% higher than the all-time high. The vote should comfortably get up. The scheme meeting is from early to mid-July. 

KRX Imposes a 20% Cap on Weight Ceiling in Sector ETFs with Few Constituents

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX limits individual stock weight to 20% in ETFs with few constituents. KRX confirms working on it, with an official announcement expected soon.
  • Excludes index ETFs like KOSPI 200. KRX hasn’t finalized criteria for constituent number but expected to involve fewer than 30 stocks.
  • This could open new passive trading opportunities. Sector ETF cap at 30%, large AUM ones offer noteworthy trading potential.

IntelliCentrics (6819 HK): Special Dividend Vote on 18 April

By Arun George

  • The IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) IFA considers the terms for the disposal of assets to symplr software as fair and reasonable. The EGM vote is on 18 April.
  • The consideration will be distributed to shareholders as a special dividend with a minimum and maximum of US$0.52 (HK$4.07) and US$0.55 (HK$4.30), respectively. 
  • Irrevocables ensure that the EGM vote will pass. At the last close and for a 7 May payment, the gross and annualised spread of the minimum dividend is 2.8%/33.6%.

Isetan Singapore (ISET SP): Mitsukoshi’s BIGLY Premium Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP), the controlling shareholder of department store operator Isetan Singapore (ISET SP), is offering $7.20/share, by way of a Scheme.
  • That’s a whopping 153.5% premium to last close. And a 178.9% premium to ISET’s NAV (as at 31 Dec 2023). 
  • Apart from Mitsukoshi’s 52.73% stake, no other shareholder has >5%. This is a done deal. But why the large premium?

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

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