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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ESG: The Rising Number of Young People Unmarried Is the Cause of Low Birthrate. What Should Companies Do? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Rising Number of Young People Unmarried Is the Cause of Low Birthrate. What Should Companies Do?


The Rising Number of Young People Unmarried Is the Cause of Low Birthrate. What Should Companies Do?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The essence of the declining birthrate problem is the increasing number of young people who aren’t getting married, but the government has been mismatched in focusing support on married couples.
  • Since the reasons for unwillingness to marry are “financial reasons” for men and “limitation of activities and time” for women, along with increased income, child-rearing and housework shouldn’t burden women.
  • Companies should shift to business model that allows them to raise profit margins without resorting to cost-cutting, raise employee salaries, and create work environment that supports child-rearing and family responsibilities.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 29th): Posco and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 29th): Posco


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 29th): Posco

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Mar 29th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD7.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We estimate short interest decreased by 2.5% WoW and highlight short interest changes in Posco.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Home Shopping Network, HD Hyundai Marine Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Estimating Participation Rate for Hyundai HS Tender Offer, Currently at a 5% Spread
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Peer Comparison – Not Particularly Exciting
  • Tender Offer of 25% of Hyundai Home Shopping Shares by Hyundai GF Holdings


Estimating Participation Rate for Hyundai HS Tender Offer, Currently at a 5% Spread

By Sanghyun Park

  • It is somewhat unusual that there is still a spread of over 5%. This likely reflects concerns about the relatively high intensity of allocation risk.
  • Retail: 30%, Institutions: 16% of float shares (46%). Retailers may contribute 20%, institutions 10-15%. Total tender rate: 30-35%.
  • In that case, it means that roughly 70% of our holdings could be tendered. And at this level, it seems reasonable enough to target the current spread of 5%.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Peer Comparison – Not Particularly Exciting

By Ethan Aw

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) is looking to raise up to US$555m in its Korean IPO.
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (HMS from hereon) is a ship aftermarket service provider that provides necessary services throughout a ship’s life cycle after the delivery of a new ship.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about peer comparison.

Tender Offer of 25% of Hyundai Home Shopping Shares by Hyundai GF Holdings

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 April, it was reported that Hyundai G.F. Holdings will be conducting a tender offer of 3 million shares of Hyundai Home Shopping (25% of outstanding shares). 
  • The tender offer price is 64,200 won. The main reason for this tender offer is to meet the regulatory requirement of a holding company by 2025. 
  • We are positive on the tender offer of a 25% stake in Hyundai Home Shopping by Hyundai G.F. Holdings.

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Daily Brief United States: Tesla , Dr Horton Inc, Century Communities, Crude Oil, Life Time Group Holdings, Shake Shack Inc Class A, Tripadvisor Inc, Carnival Corp, Helen Of Troy, Carter’s Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Tesla Q1 Deliveries: Look Out Below
  • D.R. Horton (DHI) – Wednesday, Jan 3, 2024
  • Century Communities Inc: A Story Of Expansion Through Mergers & Acquisitions! – Major Drivers
  • Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course
  • Life Time Group Holdings Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Unveiling the 4 Major Forces Propelling Its Success! – Major Drivers
  • Shake Shack Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – The 4 Fundamental Aspects Fueling Its Growth Uncovered! – Major Drivers
  • TripAdvisor Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Leveraging Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Growing Engagement! – Major Drivers
  • Carnival Corporation & plc: Are Its Brand Strengthening Efforts Paying Off? – Major Drivers
  • Helen of Troy Limited: Project Pegasus & Expectations for Fiscal 2025!
  • Carter’s Inc: Initiation Of Coverage – These Are The 3 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! – Major Drivers


Tesla Q1 Deliveries: Look Out Below

By Vicki Bryan

  • Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla’s expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y
  • This doesn’t square with Tesla’s explanation that sales were hurt by ongoing production issues—much like when the company used the same excuse for the disappointing Q3 2023. 
  • This time deliveries were much lower, the miss versus market expectations much worse, and the deep well of unsold inventories even more formidable.

D.R. Horton (DHI) – Wednesday, Jan 3, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • D.R. Horton is a leading homebuilder with high returns on equity and strong balance sheets, yet trades at a low price-to-earnings ratio.
  • The company has shifted to being asset-light, generating significant free cash flow and maintaining a strong balance sheet.
  • With a focus on market share expansion and efficiency, D.R. Horton is positioned as a growth company in a stable industry.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Century Communities Inc: A Story Of Expansion Through Mergers & Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Century Communities has reported its Q4 and Full-Year 2023 results, which demonstrated notable growth and profitability.
  • The company’s Q4 deliveries hit a record high of 3,157 homes, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase, and the year 2023 marked the firm’s 21st consecutive year of profitability.
  • The housing market also witnessed considerable improvement, contributing to the company’s success.

Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course

By Suhas Reddy

  • Oil prices are buoyant as the market largely expects OPEC+ to keep the supply cut policy intact till June. 
  • Global oil demand outlook improves as the US and China see pick up in manufacturing activity after one-and-a-half years and six months, respectively. 
  • Russia decides to focus on reducing oil output rather than exports in Q22024, implying a surprise shift in policy.  

Life Time Group Holdings Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Unveiling the 4 Major Forces Propelling Its Success! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.’s Q4 2023 earnings call emphasized impressive financial performance and strategic growth plans.
  • The revenue increased by 18.2% in Q4, driven by a rise of 20.9% in membership dues and enrollment fees, and an 11% increase in in-center revenue.
  • Access memberships increased by 5.2%, ending the year with over 763,000 memberships, while average monthly dues stood at $183, a rise of 13.2% from the previous year.

Shake Shack Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – The 4 Fundamental Aspects Fueling Its Growth Uncovered! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Shake Shack Inc. delivered an impressive 2023 full year, marking transformative milestones and exhibiting substantial profitable growth.
  • Key metrics indicate a steady growth of 24% year-over-year in the company’s system-wide sales, reaching a record $1.7 billion.
  • The company launched 85 total restaurants (an unprecedented number in a single year) and ended 2023 with 518 Shake Shacks worldwide.

TripAdvisor Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Leveraging Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Growing Engagement! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tripadvisor’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results exceeded expectations with the company reporting revenue growth of 10% year-on-year amounting to $390 million in Q4.
  • In the same period, the adjusted EBITDA was $84 million attributed to exceptional brand performance and marketing efficiencies.
  • For the full year, the company reported a consolidated revenue growth of 20%, recording an all-time high of $1.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA experiencing a 13% growth to $334 million.

Carnival Corporation & plc: Are Its Brand Strengthening Efforts Paying Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Carnival Corporation plc recently released its Q1 2024 earnings.
  • The company’s CEO, Josh Weinstein, and CFO, David Bernstein, detailed its financial performance.
  • Despite recent disruptions caused by an event at the Francis Scott Key Bridge, which is expected to have a less than $10 million full-year impact, the company reported a strong first quarter.

Helen of Troy Limited: Project Pegasus & Expectations for Fiscal 2025!

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on consumer products major, Helen of Troy.
  • The company reported its third quarter fiscal 2024 earnings, with the results slightly surpassing expectations.
  • The firm has shown consistent results over the past several quarters and is on pace to meet full-year financial targets.

Carter’s Inc: Initiation Of Coverage – These Are The 3 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Carter’s, Inc. finished its fiscal year 2023 on a strong note with a sequential increase in their Q4 comparable U.S. retail sales.
  • The demand for their new spring product offerings was earlier than planned leading to better than expected earnings and cash flow in the quarter.
  • Earnings per share were up over 20% with margin expansion in each of their three business segments.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Gajah Tunggal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Gajah Tunggal, Rakuten, Road King Infrastructure, SK Hynix


Morning Views Asia: Gajah Tunggal, Rakuten, Road King Infrastructure, SK Hynix

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Peer Comparison – Not Particularly Exciting
  • Pre-IPO Beijing Biostar Pharmaceuticals- Core Product Has Obvious Defects; Outlook Is Not Optimistic


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

By Arun George

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.
  • The likely seller will be KKR & (KKR US) as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.
  • Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO – Peer Comparison – Not Particularly Exciting

By Ethan Aw

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) is looking to raise up to US$555m in its Korean IPO.
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (HMS from hereon) is a ship aftermarket service provider that provides necessary services throughout a ship’s life cycle after the delivery of a new ship.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about peer comparison.

Pre-IPO Beijing Biostar Pharmaceuticals- Core Product Has Obvious Defects; Outlook Is Not Optimistic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Besides the core product Utidelone Injection, the rest pipelines are mostly related to the indications expansion/new formulations R&D for Utidelone Injection. Excessive dependence on single product is hard to improve. 
  • We’re not optimistic about the future sales growth of Utidelone Injection due to fierce competition/inconvenient administration methods/expired patent protection. Biostar is facing survival risks if new financing cannot be obtained.
  • Biostar’s post-investment valuation is already RMB4.49 billion. Given the gloomy sentiment and the concerns about the pipeline/prospects, we think it could fall below this valuation level after IPO in HKEX.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): What’s up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • What’s up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!
  • Ohayo Japan | Shares Mixed
  • Will Taiwan Quake Trigger a Shortage?
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES US/1024 HK/BABA US /JD US /PDD US /241 HK/Douyin/ 3690 HK/ TCOM
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211 HK/XPEV/ TSLA/300750 CH/9995 HK
  • Energy Focus: Colombia Series (3 of 3) – The Path to Net Zero and Implications for Oil & Gas


What’s up with Hong Kong? Bull Market Dude!

By Rikki Malik

  • China’s economic data is continuing to surprise on the upside.
  • Investors are starting to take notice and good news is not being ignored – a sign of a change in sentiment.
  • Economically sensitive and commodity-related sectors a good hunting ground for absolute returns

Ohayo Japan | Shares Mixed

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks closed mixed Wednesday as investors pondered Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments alongside robust economic data, hinting at prolonged higher rates
  • Taiwan experienced a significant earthquake originating off its eastern coast, prompting TSMC, the world’s top semiconductor company, to halt operations on some manufacturing equipment
  • Itochu Corp (8001) unveils a robust business plan for fiscal year 2025, targeting increased dividends and share buybacks to raise its total payout ratio

Will Taiwan Quake Trigger a Shortage?

By Jim Handy

  • A major earthquake struck Taiwan on April 3, where 25-30% of the world’s semiconductor wafers are produced
  • Most semiconductor fabs are far away from the earthquake’s epicenter
  • Those companies that have issued statements indicate that damage was slight, but there is still likely to be a shortage, which should boost chip maker profitability through 2024

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:NTES US/1024 HK/BABA US /JD US /PDD US /241 HK/Douyin/ 3690 HK/ TCOM

By Ying Pan

  • NTES US/1024 HK: The NPPA has released the approval results for domestic online games in March.(+/+)
  • BABA US/JD US/PDD US /1024 HK: Alibaba to start charging live-streaming commissions (+)
  • 241 HK: Alibaba Health updates its guidance for fiscal year 2023-24 and fiscal year 2024-25, introducing Alimama advertising revenue, but it is still not cheap(/)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211 HK/XPEV/ TSLA/300750 CH/9995 HK

By Eric Wen

  • 1810 HK/1211 HK: Xiaomi SU7 pre order conversion rate estimated to be about 20-30%, reopening the Founder’s Edition to increase the conversion rate(///)
  • 1810 HK: Zeekr 001 exceeded 30,000 in the first month of its launch. Zeekr + SU7 may have the biggest impact on Tesla and BBA(/)
  • 1810 HK/1211 HK/XPEV/ TSLA: Su7’s aggressive pricing impacts ICE vehicles, Tesla, Zeekr, while also stimulating overall auto sales (//-/-/-)

Energy Focus: Colombia Series (3 of 3) – The Path to Net Zero and Implications for Oil & Gas

By Water Tower Research

  • The government of Colombia seeks to accelerate the country’s path toward net zero emissions, while investors question the implications for the country’s oil & gas industry.
  • This report is the third in a three-part WTR Energy Focus series on Colombia. It follows Oil & Gas Operators Guiding for Bottom-Up Growth… and Striking a Balance Between Energy Security and Fiscal Stability.
  • Colombia’s natural gas demand will increase due to an energy transition and upstream operators with gas exposure realizing strong gas prices in an undersupplied market (as shown on right).

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Daily Brief Credit: Anton Oilfield – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Anton Oilfield – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Gajah Tunggal, Rakuten, Road King Infrastructure, SK Hynix


Anton Oilfield – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Anton Oilfield’s FY 2023 results were strong, with revenue growth accelerating to levels not registered since H1/19. The strong FCF boosted the cash balance. The company’s financial risk profile improved significantly, with Net Debt/EBITDA below 1x and healthy interest coverage ratios. Liquidity is adequate.

We expect the business’ positive momentum to continue in FY 2024. H1 is projected to be significantly better y-o-y, while H2 is anticipated to improve only marginally due to the high base effect.


Morning Views Asia: Gajah Tunggal, Rakuten, Road King Infrastructure, SK Hynix

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • ABFRL’s Demerger: A Game-Changer or a Gamble?


ABFRL’s Demerger: A Game-Changer or a Gamble?

By Nimish Maheshwari


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Daily Brief Macro: Macro Regime Indicator: From Stealth QE to Stealth QT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Macro Regime Indicator: From Stealth QE to Stealth QT
  • Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course
  • 5 Things We Watch – EUR-Inflation, Central Banks, The Business Cycle, Positioning & Commodities
  • CX Daily: Huawei’s HarmonyOS Next Is Set to Rival iOS and Android
  • EA Services Don’t Dis-inflate for Doves
  • Auction Dynamics Augurs Well for Long 2Y Short 5Y Spread


Macro Regime Indicator: From Stealth QE to Stealth QT

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our Monthly Macro Regime monitor.
  • Coming into March, we wrote that “We see little change to the optimistic and risk-favoring sentiment for March, and we thus remain in the goldilocks ‘Gung Ho’ regime.
  • With tailwinds from both liquidity and growth, we continue to see a great case for continuing to move/stay further out of the risk curve when it comes to allocation.

Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course

By Suhas Reddy

  • Oil prices are buoyant as the market largely expects OPEC+ to keep the supply cut policy intact till June. 
  • Global oil demand outlook improves as the US and China see pick up in manufacturing activity after one-and-a-half years and six months, respectively. 
  • Russia decides to focus on reducing oil output rather than exports in Q22024, implying a surprise shift in policy.  

5 Things We Watch – EUR-Inflation, Central Banks, The Business Cycle, Positioning & Commodities

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the things we look out for in global macro.
  • With markets hawking up Fed expectations, Euro Area inflation surprising on the downside, and commodities breaking out technically, there are plenty of things to shed some light on!
  • This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: 
    • EUR-Inflation
    • Central Banks pricing
    • The Business Cycle
    • Fixed Income Positioning
    • Commodities 

CX Daily: Huawei’s HarmonyOS Next Is Set to Rival iOS and Android

By Caixin Global

  • Coffee / In Depth: Luckin challenger pushes China’s coffee price war toward boiling point
  • Huawei /In Depth: Huawei’s HarmonyOS Next is set to rival iOS and Android
  • Corruption /: Two officials of China’s non-communist political parties caught up in corruption investigations

EA Services Don’t Dis-inflate for Doves

By Phil Rush

  • EA inflation reversed its previous upside surprise to print down at 2.44% in March. Core inflation was 2bps softer at 2.946% amid non-energy industrial goods price weakness.
  • Services inflation once again surprised on the upside by refusing to budge from 4% for the fifth consecutive month despite potential Olympic-related weakness in France.
  • The ECB can welcome headline disinflation, but without seeing a slowing in services inflation, we still believe it will not be convinced to start cutting interest rates.

Auction Dynamics Augurs Well for Long 2Y Short 5Y Spread

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Shifting rate cut expectations and contrasting demand for treasuries creates a nuanced topology across various yield curves and inversion dynamics.
  • Last Dec, expectations were for six rate cuts of 25 bps each to start from Jan. Two FOMC meetings have passed with rates unchanged. 
  • FOMC meetings thus far have resulted in (1) No hike & No guidance, & (2) No hike & Reaffirm guidance. Expectation is for 3 cuts of 25 bps from Jun. 

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