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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: AKR Corporindo, Hanwha Aerospace, Citic Resources Holdings, GDI Integrated Facility Services, Gibraltar Industries, Talgo SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Industrial Chameleon
  • Hanwha Aerospace: Spin Off of Semiconductor Equipment and Video Surveillance Units
  • Citic Resource Holdings (1205.HK) – A Play on Oil and Coal Demand
  • Gdi Integrated Facility Svcs (GDI.) – Thursday, Jan 4, 2024
  • Gibraltar Industries: Investment in Digital Transformation
  • Ganz-Mavag/Talgo: Request for Offer Authorisation


AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Industrial Chameleon

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked an impressive finish to the year despite slower revenue growth from its trading & distribution business boosted by strong industrial plot sales at JIIPE.
  • The company expects trading & industrial volumes to improve in 2024, with retail petroleum becoming more significant with JIIPE expected to see increasing recurrent utilities earnings starting in 2H2024. 
  • AKR Corporindo has a strong pipeline of potential tenants for JIIPE and expects to expand its BP JV retail petrol stations by 40-50 this year. Valuations remain attractive.

Hanwha Aerospace: Spin Off of Semiconductor Equipment and Video Surveillance Units

By Douglas Kim

  • On 5 April, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) formally announced that it will spin off its semiconductor equipment and video surveillance units which contributed to about 16% of its revenue. 
  • We are Negative on Hanwha Aerospace mainly due to valuations. Its share price has risen so much in the past year that its valuations are no longer attractive.
  • Hanwha Aerospace is trading at premium valuation to Lockheed Martin on an EV/EBITDA basis. Despite its recent strong growth, Hanwha Aerospace is no Lockheed Martin. 

Citic Resource Holdings (1205.HK) – A Play on Oil and Coal Demand

By Rikki Malik

  • One of a basket of Hong Kong commodity stocks we like
  • One off issues in 2023 which should reverse in 2024
  • Can also be viewed as  a tangential play on India’s industrial growth

Gdi Integrated Facility Svcs (GDI.) – Thursday, Jan 4, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Fragmented industry with growth opportunities
  • Successful acquisitions and expansion
  • Focus on customer service and reputation for excellence

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Gibraltar Industries: Investment in Digital Transformation

By Baptista Research

  • Gibraltar Industries’ Q4 2023 financial results presented a robust year-end performance.
  • The company’s leadership positions were expanded, the quality of earnings improved, and strong cash flows were generated.
  • Both Residential and Infrastructure perform strongly, and although the Renewable segment faced industry headwinds, it demonstrated excellent margin expansion.

Ganz-Mavag/Talgo: Request for Offer Authorisation

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Ganz Mavag, a public/private consortium, requests authorisation for its €5/share offer for 100% of Talgo SA (TLGO SM). It needs approvals from Spain and seven other EMEA regulators.
  • Yesterday’s close remains similar to the announcement date (7 March), gross spread of 11.3%, indicating uncertainty regarding timeline and development. The market is pricing a 48% probability of deal completion.
  • The Spanish Government will delay the authorization process. Vs. comparables and considering uncertainties regarding backlog execution, investing in the company seems somewhat risky. The risk/reward ratio is not particularly attractive.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Jastec Co Ltd, Intel Corp, Lions Gate Entertainment and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Jastec (9717 JP): NTT Data (9613 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY1,940
  • Intel’s New Segment Reporting. Transparency Or Obfuscation?
  • Lions Gate Entertainment: 5 Factors Influencing Its Survival In The Entertainment Industry!


Jastec (9717 JP): NTT Data (9613 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY1,940

By Arun George

  • Jastec Co Ltd (9717 JP) has recommended a tender offer from NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) at JPY1,940 per share, a 37.6% premium to the undisturbed price (5 April). 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 56.4% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer represents a 22-year high.

Intel’s New Segment Reporting. Transparency Or Obfuscation?

By William Keating

  • Intel launched a new segment reporting structure under which its newly created Foundry P&L allegedly racked up operating losses of ~$17 billion over the past three years
  • The Foundry P&L is not expected to reach breakeven until the ’27/’28 timeframe
  • Intel’s share price is down >10% in the two days since the new financial model was launched. 

Lions Gate Entertainment: 5 Factors Influencing Its Survival In The Entertainment Industry!

By Baptista Research

  • The third quarter 2024 financial results for Lionsgate reveal positive trends contributing to the company’s growth and strategic developments.
  • In this update, there are strong indicators of continued growth owing to an impressive performance across the business segments.
  • Conversely, there are risks due to the competitive landscape and the strong reliance on hit content titles.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Hanmi Science, Shockwave Medical Inc, Cochlear Ltd, Jinxin Fertility Group , Oryzon Genomics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Backstory on the Hanmi Science Showdown & KKR’s Likely Tender Offer
  • Hanmi Science: If Talks With Mum and Sister Break Down, Then KKR May Provide a Partial Tender Offer
  • Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)’s Acquisition Offer
  • Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Underlying Business Strength Justifies Superior Valuation
  • Chinese IVF Specialist Expands Into Southeast Asia With Indonesian Investment
  • Oryzon Genomics – Third time is a charm; INNOVATIVE SME Seal


Backstory on the Hanmi Science Showdown & KKR’s Likely Tender Offer

By Sanghyun Park

  • The victorious brothers plan to join forces with KKR to secure over 51% ownership of Hanmi Science. They aim to persuade the mother and daughter to part with their shares.
  • Should this negotiation fail, KKR is prepared to initiate a tender offer in the open market, intending to acquire an additional 10-15% of Hanmi Science’s shares.
  • KKR can target a maximum of 16%. With 10-15% aimed for, this tender offer will cause significant price impact.

Hanmi Science: If Talks With Mum and Sister Break Down, Then KKR May Provide a Partial Tender Offer

By Douglas Kim

  • The 2024 AGM of Hanmi Science is over and the two Lim brothers have control of the company. Nonetheless, the fight for the control of Hanmi Science is not over.
  • There is an increasingly probable scenario where the KKR private equity firm gets involved, joining hands with the Lim brothers.
  • If mum and sister do not sell their shares (which seems to be the higher likely scenario), then KKR may issue a tender offer to the remaining minority shareholders.

Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)’s Acquisition Offer

By Tina Banerjee

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) for $335/share in cash or an enterprise value of $13.1B.
  • Offer price represents 4.7% premium over yesterday’s closing price or around 19% premium over the undisturbed price. The deal is expected to close by mid-2024.
  • With no product overlap and competition concern, the deal is expected to get regulatory approval. With reasonable deal valuation, shareholders approval is also expected.

Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Underlying Business Strength Justifies Superior Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • Cochlear Ltd (COH AU) shares rallied 30%+ over the last six months. Shares are trading at NTM P/E of 51.3x, versus other Australia-listed medical devices companies’ P/E of 23–32x.
  • The underlying business strength depicted by strong financial performance and guidance raise, and superior product offerings justify the pricey valuation.
  • Cochlear lifted FY24 net profit guidance to A$385–400M (+26–31% YoY) from A$355–375M. The company expects FY24 cochlear implant volume growth of 10–15% YoY.

Chinese IVF Specialist Expands Into Southeast Asia With Indonesian Investment

By Caixin Global

  • Jinxin Fertility Group Ltd., China’s largest private provider of in vitro fertility (IVF) services, is buying a stake in an Indonesian peer, venturing into Southeast Asia as demand in China declines with more couples opting not to have babies.
  • Hong Kong-listed Jinxin Fertility has signed an equity investment deal to become a “significant shareholder” of PT Morula Indonesia, an IVF specialist affiliated with PT Bundamedik Tbk, a major women- and children-focused health care services group in Indonesia, according to a joint statement Monday.
  • It did not specify how much capital Jinxin will invest.

Oryzon Genomics – Third time is a charm; INNOVATIVE SME Seal

By Edison Investment Research

For the third consecutive time, Oryzon Genomics has received the INNOVATIVE SME Seal from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. This external recognition highlights Oryzon’s key R&D activities, including its lead central nervous system (CNS) asset, vafidemstat, and lead oncology asset, iadademstat, and overall contributions to the field of epigenetics. Along with the acknowledgement, the INNOVATIVE SME Seal may allow Oryzon to benefit from certain tax deductions and incentives, as well as potential access to certain financing facilities.


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Daily Brief Financials: Hang Seng Index, Ramsdens Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | HSI Closed the Week Modestly Up: A Pullback Is Possible Next Week
  • Ramsdens Holdings Plc (RFX:LN) – Thursday, Jan 4, 2024


EQD | HSI Closed the Week Modestly Up: A Pullback Is Possible Next Week

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index has been rising for 2 weeks but the uptrend seems slow and weak. The rally may have stalled, a pullback may be behind the corner.
  • Based on our MONTHLY seasonal studies for the HSI, the index has a extremely high chance to close April in negative territory.
  • You can go SHORT now, or during this coming week if the index keeps rising, target the 17000 to 17300 areas.

Ramsdens Holdings Plc (RFX:LN) – Thursday, Jan 4, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Ramsdens Holdings PLC is a pawnbroker offering pawnbroking, precious metal buying, FX currency exchange, and retail jewelry sales services
  • They have a diverse customer base from lower-income households to higher income customers interested in premium watches and jewelry
  • With 158 stores in the UK, Ramsdens is the second largest pawnbroker behind H&T Group, focusing on increasing store estate and distributing dividends for further growth, making it an appealing investment opportunity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: L’Occitane, Best World International, Kura Sushi USA , BellRing Brands , Reynolds Consumer Products I, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK):  Two Good Moves, Though Rerating Has Been Fast And Furious
  • Best World (BEST SP): Exit Stage Left
  • KRUS: Successive Guidance Upgrade as Kura Face Tougher Comps
  • BellRing Brands: Upping Its Inventory Management Game While Expanding Distribution Scale!
  • Reynolds Consumer Products: Can It Successfully Restore Profitability in Disposable Tableware?
  • Will the TSE’s Convoy System Work?


L’Occitane (973 HK):  Two Good Moves, Though Rerating Has Been Fast And Furious

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • L’Occitane (973 HK) announced two solid moves this week:  1) Disposing the 70% stake in Grown Alchemist;
  • And 2) granting additional call options to Sol de Janeiro CEO Heela Yang of up to 7%.
  • The stock is trading at 19x FY25 PE (fiscal year ending March), up from just 14x six months ago.

Best World (BEST SP): Exit Stage Left

By David Blennerhassett

  • After flagging a proposed delisting exercise last month, direct seller Best World International (BEST SP) has announced an Exit Offer lead by Best World founders Dora Hoan and Doreen Tan.
  • The Offer Price is S$2.50/share, a 42.86% premium to undisturbed. The Offer requires approval from 75% of disinterested shareholders. Hoan, Tan and concert parties holding 65.12%, are required to abstain.
  • Best World shares resumed trading on November 2022 after 42 months of suspension, subsequent to media reports and a short seller raising regulatory concerns over its Chinese business model.

KRUS: Successive Guidance Upgrade as Kura Face Tougher Comps

By Notes To Self

  • Kura Sushi US Weighting as of writing: 4% 5th April 2024 – Q2 FY24 Results On April 4th, Kura Sushi US reported earnings for the second quarter of FY24.
  • Nothing major to report and similar themes to previous quarters so will keep this one short. The market valuation is astronomically stupid.
  • Average unit volumes at Kura are $4.28 million and have improved significantly; up 22% since 2019.

BellRing Brands: Upping Its Inventory Management Game While Expanding Distribution Scale!

By Baptista Research

  • BellRing Brands Inc. has reported the results from their first quarter ending fiscal year 2024.
  • These results have come out better than the management’s expectations, with net sales increasing by 19% in comparison to the previous year.
  • The company’s adjusted EBITDA also showed considerable growth, rising by 18%.

Reynolds Consumer Products: Can It Successfully Restore Profitability in Disposable Tableware?

By Baptista Research

  • Reynolds Consumer Products managed to maintain strong growth in Q4 2023, raising its share in some of its largest categories, including household foil and waste bags, achieving record profits, and boosting its cash flow.
  • This was driven by double-digit profit growth across its various businesses.
  • The operational stability of its Reynolds Cooking business has been restored and it has returned to historical earnings.

Will the TSE’s Convoy System Work?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While more companies should include the cost of capital in their disclosures, investors are demanding that management present specific solutions discussed by the board of directors to solve their company’s problems.
  • Many companies with high foreign shareholding disclose their own management strategies, while companies without high foreign shareholding tend to lack the ability to think of measures to increase profitability.
  • The TSE’s newly established department supports such companies to ensure that all listed companies are not left behind, but that seems to go against the quality of the market.

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Most Read: Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A, Kokusai Electric , Li Auto , Suruga Bank Ltd, Hanwha Corporation, Hanmi Science, L’Occitane, Best World International, Jastec Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$1.5bn in June
  • Suruga Bank (8358 JP) – New Div, New Buyback, New KPIs, New 6yr High Price
  • Hanwha Group’s Restructuring to Positively Benefit Hanwha Corp but Negatively Impact Hanwha Ocean
  • Backstory on the Hanmi Science Showdown & KKR’s Likely Tender Offer
  • L’Occitane (973 HK):  Two Good Moves, Though Rerating Has Been Fast And Furious
  • Best World (BEST SP): Exit Stage Left
  • Jastec (9717 JP): NTT Data (9613 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY1,940
  • Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2024


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

By Arun George

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.
  • The likely seller will be KKR & (KKR US) as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.
  • Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade of US$1.5bn in June

By Brian Freitas

  • With no stocks in outright inclusion or deletion zone, we do not expect any constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June.
  • Capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5.3% leading to a round-trip trade of US$1.51bn.
  • Li Auto (2015 HK) is expected to be the largest buy in June following the stock being the largest sell at the March rebalance (also due to capping).

Suruga Bank (8358 JP) – New Div, New Buyback, New KPIs, New 6yr High Price

By Travis Lundy


Hanwha Group’s Restructuring to Positively Benefit Hanwha Corp but Negatively Impact Hanwha Ocean

By Douglas Kim

  • We believe the new restructuring plan of the Hanwha Group is likely to have a positive impact on Hanwha Corp but could negatively impact Hanwha Ocean. 
  • Our NAV analysis of Hanwha Corp suggests NAV of 3.2 trillion won or NAV per share of 43,168 won, which is 50% higher than current share price. 
  • The biggest component of the valuation is Hanwha Corp’s 34% stake in Hanwha Aerospace which is worth 4.1 trillion won. (187% of Hanwha Corp’s market cap). 

Backstory on the Hanmi Science Showdown & KKR’s Likely Tender Offer

By Sanghyun Park

  • The victorious brothers plan to join forces with KKR to secure over 51% ownership of Hanmi Science. They aim to persuade the mother and daughter to part with their shares.
  • Should this negotiation fail, KKR is prepared to initiate a tender offer in the open market, intending to acquire an additional 10-15% of Hanmi Science’s shares.
  • KKR can target a maximum of 16%. With 10-15% aimed for, this tender offer will cause significant price impact.

L’Occitane (973 HK):  Two Good Moves, Though Rerating Has Been Fast And Furious

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • L’Occitane (973 HK) announced two solid moves this week:  1) Disposing the 70% stake in Grown Alchemist;
  • And 2) granting additional call options to Sol de Janeiro CEO Heela Yang of up to 7%.
  • The stock is trading at 19x FY25 PE (fiscal year ending March), up from just 14x six months ago.

Best World (BEST SP): Exit Stage Left

By David Blennerhassett

  • After flagging a proposed delisting exercise last month, direct seller Best World International (BEST SP) has announced an Exit Offer lead by Best World founders Dora Hoan and Doreen Tan.
  • The Offer Price is S$2.50/share, a 42.86% premium to undisturbed. The Offer requires approval from 75% of disinterested shareholders. Hoan, Tan and concert parties holding 65.12%, are required to abstain.
  • Best World shares resumed trading on November 2022 after 42 months of suspension, subsequent to media reports and a short seller raising regulatory concerns over its Chinese business model.

Jastec (9717 JP): NTT Data (9613 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY1,940

By Arun George

  • Jastec Co Ltd (9717 JP) has recommended a tender offer from NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) at JPY1,940 per share, a 37.6% premium to the undisturbed price (5 April). 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 56.4% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance condition is achievable as the offer represents a 22-year high.

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2024

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • During 1Q2024, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +8.7%y/y, down slightly from the +10.1% reported during 4Q2023.
  • Only 47% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 44% delivered positive Sales surprises, a sharp correction from the positive trend witnessed during 2023.
  • Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.

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Daily Brief Australia: Cochlear Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Underlying Business Strength Justifies Superior Valuation


Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Underlying Business Strength Justifies Superior Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • Cochlear Ltd (COH AU) shares rallied 30%+ over the last six months. Shares are trading at NTM P/E of 51.3x, versus other Australia-listed medical devices companies’ P/E of 23–32x.
  • The underlying business strength depicted by strong financial performance and guidance raise, and superior product offerings justify the pricey valuation.
  • Cochlear lifted FY24 net profit guidance to A$385–400M (+26–31% YoY) from A$355–375M. The company expects FY24 cochlear implant volume growth of 10–15% YoY.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Best World International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Best World (BEST SP): Exit Stage Left


Best World (BEST SP): Exit Stage Left

By David Blennerhassett

  • After flagging a proposed delisting exercise last month, direct seller Best World International (BEST SP) has announced an Exit Offer lead by Best World founders Dora Hoan and Doreen Tan.
  • The Offer Price is S$2.50/share, a 42.86% premium to undisturbed. The Offer requires approval from 75% of disinterested shareholders. Hoan, Tan and concert parties holding 65.12%, are required to abstain.
  • Best World shares resumed trading on November 2022 after 42 months of suspension, subsequent to media reports and a short seller raising regulatory concerns over its Chinese business model.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: AKR Corporindo, China Vanke , Indika Energy, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Industrial Chameleon
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Indika Energy, Vedanta Resources
  • Indika Energy – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics


AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Industrial Chameleon

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) booked an impressive finish to the year despite slower revenue growth from its trading & distribution business boosted by strong industrial plot sales at JIIPE.
  • The company expects trading & industrial volumes to improve in 2024, with retail petroleum becoming more significant with JIIPE expected to see increasing recurrent utilities earnings starting in 2H2024. 
  • AKR Corporindo has a strong pipeline of potential tenants for JIIPE and expects to expand its BP JV retail petrol stations by 40-50 this year. Valuations remain attractive.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Indika Energy, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Indika Energy – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Indika Energy’s FY 2023 numbers were soft as projected, owing to lower coal prices and the impact of the new licence for 91%-owned PT Kideco Jaya Agung. While Indika’s financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, the credit metrics remained robust within the rating category. Liquidity stayed sound.

The company should have a more difficult year in FY 2024, with decreased selling prices, revenue and earnings expected. That said, we still believe Indika can generate positive FCF, given its low-cost position.

The company is set to redeem the c. USD 294 mn outstanding USD 5.875% 11/24 notes on May 3rd at par. While the redemption will be leverage neutral, we view the move as credit positive. Indika will only have the USD 2025 bonds remaining after the 2024 notes redemption, and these can be almost fully funded by the holdco’s cash position.


Medco Energi – Earnings Flash – FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Medco Energi’s FY 2023 numbers were acceptable in our view. The top line and margins softened, weighed down by reduced oil & gas (O&G) selling prices and slightly lower production volumes. FCF was negative and net debt increased, owing to the acquisition of a 20% stake in two O&G blocks at Oman in December. While leverage weakened, Net Debt/EBITDA remained acceptable at 2.5x at FYE 2023.

We believe earnings may continue declining in FY 2024, as management has guided for production to decrease further (mainly driven by lower working interest at Corridor Block PSC). Still, we believe Medco can generate slightly positive FCF in FY 2024 if it does not undertake new acquisitions. Liquidity is sound, and we note positively that the company’s sizeable equity stake in copper and gold mining JV Amman Mineral Internasional (listed on IDX) would provide it with meaningful financial flexibility if needed.

We revise our LARA to “Medium Risk” from “High Risk”, considering Medco’s longer reserve life and track record of proactive debt management.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanmi Science, Hanwha Aerospace and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Backstory on the Hanmi Science Showdown & KKR’s Likely Tender Offer
  • Hanmi Science: If Talks With Mum and Sister Break Down, Then KKR May Provide a Partial Tender Offer
  • Hanwha Aerospace: Spin Off of Semiconductor Equipment and Video Surveillance Units


Backstory on the Hanmi Science Showdown & KKR’s Likely Tender Offer

By Sanghyun Park

  • The victorious brothers plan to join forces with KKR to secure over 51% ownership of Hanmi Science. They aim to persuade the mother and daughter to part with their shares.
  • Should this negotiation fail, KKR is prepared to initiate a tender offer in the open market, intending to acquire an additional 10-15% of Hanmi Science’s shares.
  • KKR can target a maximum of 16%. With 10-15% aimed for, this tender offer will cause significant price impact.

Hanmi Science: If Talks With Mum and Sister Break Down, Then KKR May Provide a Partial Tender Offer

By Douglas Kim

  • The 2024 AGM of Hanmi Science is over and the two Lim brothers have control of the company. Nonetheless, the fight for the control of Hanmi Science is not over.
  • There is an increasingly probable scenario where the KKR private equity firm gets involved, joining hands with the Lim brothers.
  • If mum and sister do not sell their shares (which seems to be the higher likely scenario), then KKR may issue a tender offer to the remaining minority shareholders.

Hanwha Aerospace: Spin Off of Semiconductor Equipment and Video Surveillance Units

By Douglas Kim

  • On 5 April, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) formally announced that it will spin off its semiconductor equipment and video surveillance units which contributed to about 16% of its revenue. 
  • We are Negative on Hanwha Aerospace mainly due to valuations. Its share price has risen so much in the past year that its valuations are no longer attractive.
  • Hanwha Aerospace is trading at premium valuation to Lockheed Martin on an EV/EBITDA basis. Despite its recent strong growth, Hanwha Aerospace is no Lockheed Martin. 

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