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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: Yen Weakness Not Solely Due to Bank of Japan as Corporates Play a Critical Role and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Yen Weakness Not Solely Due to Bank of Japan as Corporates Play a Critical Role
  • Looking For Inflation In All The Wrong Places
  • How Serious Is The Market’s Trend Break?
  • US Employment Report Superficially Strong Again


Yen Weakness Not Solely Due to Bank of Japan as Corporates Play a Critical Role

By Said Desaque

  • The weak yen could be a legacy of aggressive quantitative easing (QE), whereby the BoJ became the largest holder of government bonds, forcing traditional buyers overseas.
  • Overseas cash hoarding by Japanese affiliates is being cited as another reason for yen weakness. Superior growth opportunities outside of Japan are a reason for the lack of cash repatriation. 
  • Japan’s exporters currently face formidable competition with China, making a strong yen an unattractive option during a period of higher cost pressures, notably for labour.

Looking For Inflation In All The Wrong Places

By Cam Hui

  • Conventional inflation hedge vehicles have exhibited subpar performance despite rising concerns over persistent inflation that will delay the Fed’s rate cuts.
  • That’s because 1970s-style “bad inflation” is not present and “good inflation”, which is a by-product of an economic recovery and stronger growth expectations, is becoming dominant narrative.
  • Market expectations are shifting from a soft-landing to a no-landing outcome, which should be bullish for cyclical stocks and neutral to bearish for bonds.

How Serious Is The Market’s Trend Break?

By Cam Hui

  • Multiple breaks in rising trend lines are signs that a risk-off episode is under way.
  • We are long-term bullish and investment-oriented accounts should regard weakness as a buying opportunity.
  • We have outlined a number of bullish tripwires based on sentiment and technical indicators for investors to follow.

US Employment Report Superficially Strong Again

By Rikki Malik

  • Stocks and Gold rally as US economy shows continued strength in employment
  • Under the hood, it is not looking quite so rosy
  • Meanwhile the Bank of Japan faces its own credibility issue

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Daily Brief China: J&T Global Express , Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Sino Biopharmaceutical, APT Medical , Perfect Medical Health, Fu Shou Yuan, HD Hyundai Marine Solution , China Power International, BYD and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change or Two in June?
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) – Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: APT Medical Moving Higher
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – April 2024
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Due to the Pain Points, Investment Logic Changes
  • ECM Weekly (8th Apr 2024) – Hyundai Marine, Waaree Energies, Horizon Robotics, Bharti Hexacom
  • China Power International (2380 HK): Powering Forward
  • China Consumption Weekly (8 Apr 2024): BYD, Li Auto, Trip.com, Alibaba


J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry

By Arun George

  • J&T Global Express (1519 HK)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.
  • The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.
  • J&T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. 

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change or Two in June?

By Brian Freitas

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK) is a potential deletion in June while Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) is a potential inclusion.
  • For yet another review, BeiGene (6160 HK) is a close add with the Velocity Test determining if the stock will be added to the index or not.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.95% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.6bn. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 4 June.

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) – Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.
  • GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged – reduce fat and increase muscle.
  • In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: APT Medical Moving Higher

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
  • We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in three changes to the index.
  • With a big jump in tracking AUM over the last few months, passives will need to trade a lot of stock on implementation date.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Due to the Pain Points, Investment Logic Changes

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fu Shou Yuan’s 2023 performance was indeed not good, with negative growth in 23H2.Shanghai alone has limited market capacity.No matter how strong it is, it cannot drive the national market.
  • Fu Shou Yuan has encountered difficulties in external expansion and M&A, so it chooses to increase dividends. However, this means the Company may have to say goodbye to high growth.
  • The founder’s “past bad record” and uncertain business outlook hinder the upward potential of valuation, which requires a high margin of safety.It’s better bought at low price to collect dividends.

ECM Weekly (8th Apr 2024) – Hyundai Marine, Waaree Energies, Horizon Robotics, Bharti Hexacom

By Ethan Aw


China Power International (2380 HK): Powering Forward

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Power International (2380 HK)‘s earnings should accelerate in FY24, and rebound in hydropower is a key driver. Hydropower generation surged 84.3% YoY in 2M24.
  • The 9.3GW of capacity acquired in Oct will provide first full-year contribution in FY24. Better economics for coal-fired plants will add to profit momentum.
  • The 6pp increase in dividend payout signals management’s positive view in the outlook, and the Chairman is explicitly confident in good FY24 profit growth. 

China Consumption Weekly (8 Apr 2024): BYD, Li Auto, Trip.com, Alibaba

By Ming Lu

  • In March 2024, BYD’s Sales volume increased by 46% YoY and Li Auto’s sales volume increased by 39% YoY.
  • AliPay announced that foreigners’ consumption amount in China in March was ten times of last year.
  • Facing stagnancy and competition, Alibaba’s Taobao removed service charges from its retailers.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Restaking and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Restaking, the Biggest Opportunity and Risk in Ethereum


Restaking, the Biggest Opportunity and Risk in Ethereum

By Edward Wu

  • Crypto market is driven by narrative in the short term, and capital favors new narratives. Ethereum restaking is the brand new narrative and biggest investment opportunity in this cycle.
  • Restaking and Liquid Restaking will bring upward pressure to ETH, and tokens of Liquid Restaking protocols will benefit from the growing restaking market.
  • DeFi use cases related to Liquid Restaked Tokens introduce increased financial leverage to the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem, which also entails heightened risks.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Yaskawa Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Yaskawa (6506 JP): Start of a New Factory Automation Growth Cycle


Yaskawa (6506 JP): Start of a New Factory Automation Growth Cycle

By Scott Foster

  • The outlook for factory automation is improving with inventory clearance, the upturn in the semiconductor industry and an AI-enhanced response to the labor shortage.
  • Yaskawa’s margins should continue to rise with renewed growth in Robotics, efficiency gains and an upgraded product line. 
  • Valuation stretched at 30x EPS guidance for FY Feb-25, but current weakness looks like a long term buying opportunity.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JSR Corp, Aptargroup Inc, Graphic Packaging Holding Company, Valvoline and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Austal, Best World, Isetan Singapore, Langham Hospitality, Azure, Genex Power
  • AptarGroup Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Will The Expansion & Refining Of Manufacturing Operations Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Graphic Packaging Holding Company: Initiation Of Coverage – These Are The 3 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! – Major Drivers
  • Valvoline Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Will The Improvements in Non-Oil-Change Revenues and Premiumization Continue To Happen? – Major Drivers


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Austal, Best World, Isetan Singapore, Langham Hospitality, Azure, Genex Power

By David Blennerhassett


AptarGroup Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Will The Expansion & Refining Of Manufacturing Operations Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Aptar Group, Inc. delivered solid core sales growth of 2% in Q4 2023, reaching an adjusted EPS of $1.21 per share, which marked a progression from past results.
  • The increase was attributed to a record year for the company’s proprietary drug delivery systems and its fragrance dispensing technologies.
  • Aptar achieved an increased adjusted EBITDA margin of more than 21%, marking a 3-point elevation from the prior year, backed by robust growth in the pharmaceutical end markets.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company: Initiation Of Coverage – These Are The 3 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Globus Medical, a leading musculoskeletal solutions provider, has reported record revenues of $1.569 billion for the full year 2023, marking a growth of 53% compared to the previous year.
  • The strong performance includes four months of sales after its merger with NuVasive.
  • This remarkable growth maintained the company’s industry-leading profitability, generating a record non-GAAP EPS of $2.32 and an adjusted EBITDA of 30%.

Valvoline Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Will The Improvements in Non-Oil-Change Revenues and Premiumization Continue To Happen? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Valvoline Inc., a leading worldwide marketer and supplier of premium branded lubricants and automotive services, reported robust results for the first quarter of fiscal 2024.
  • The company’s strong performance was marked by a robust top-line growth with system-wide store sales growing 12.3% to $723 million.
  • Both company and franchise same-store sales expanded respectively with 6.1% and 8% growth.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , Rubrik and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (07 Apr) – Kokusai Electric, HD Hyundai Marine, Langham, Jastec, JSR, Best World
  • Rubrik IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: 2024’s Hottest SaaS Investment Opportunity


Weekly Deals Digest (07 Apr) – Kokusai Electric, HD Hyundai Marine, Langham, Jastec, JSR, Best World

By Arun George


Rubrik IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: 2024’s Hottest SaaS Investment Opportunity

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Rubrik, a leading VC-backed security software company, filed for a long-awaited IPO in the United States, with Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Barclays and Wells Fargo leading the offering. 
  • The technology company is focused on data protection and helps organizations to protect their data and recover it in case of cyberattacks.
  • Rubrik was founded by Bipul Sinha, Arvind Nithrakashyap, Arvind Jain and Soham Mazumdar, and backed by VC investors, including Lightspeed Venture Partners, Greylock Partners and Khosla Ventures.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Yaskawa Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Yaskawa (6506 JP): Start of a New Factory Automation Growth Cycle


Yaskawa (6506 JP): Start of a New Factory Automation Growth Cycle

By Scott Foster

  • The outlook for factory automation is improving with inventory clearance, the upturn in the semiconductor industry and an AI-enhanced response to the labor shortage.
  • Yaskawa’s margins should continue to rise with renewed growth in Robotics, efficiency gains and an upgraded product line. 
  • Valuation stretched at 30x EPS guidance for FY Feb-25, but current weakness looks like a long term buying opportunity.

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Daily Brief Financials: Affirm Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Affirm Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage – Will Its Strength in Unit Economics and Operating Efficiency Last? – Major Drivers


Affirm Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage – Will Its Strength in Unit Economics and Operating Efficiency Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Affirm Holdings, Inc had a strong performance in its second quarter of fiscal 2024.
  • A sense of optimism pervaded the call, as the company’s Founder and CEO, Max Levchin, and CFO, Michael Linford, highlighted the impressive run of results, attributing it to the strength of business across their merchant base and favorable economic conditions.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Acadia Healthcare Co, Tenet Healthcare, Chemed Corp, Dentsply International, Elanco Animal Health , Fresenius Medical Care & , Globus Medical Inc A, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Medpace Holdings Inc, Neurocrine Biosciences and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Acadia Healthcare Company Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Investment in technology to optimize infrastructure and clinical outcomes! – Major Drivers
  • Tenet Healthcare Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Its Focus on Higher Acuity Services in Hospitals & Other Core Strategies! – Major Drivers
  • Duplicate of Tenet Healthcare Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Its Focus on Higher Acuity Services in Hospitals & Other Core Strategies! – Major Drivers
  • DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers
  • Elanco Animal Health: Initiation Of Coverage – A Story Of Concentration on Pet Health and Livestock Sustainability! – Major Drivers
  • Fresenius Medical Care: Initiation Of Coverage – Innovation with AR in Dialysis Training & 4 Other Major Drivers
  • Globus Medical Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increasing Portfolio Range & 3 Critical Growth Factors
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Its New wholly-owned medicines and Independent launches Can Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Medpace Holdings Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
  • Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Continued Investment & Growth for INGREZZA Paving The Way Forward? – Major Drivers


Acadia Healthcare Company Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Investment in technology to optimize infrastructure and clinical outcomes! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Acadia Healthcare delivered a robust financial performance for 2023, marked by a 12.2% annual revenue growth, 13.1% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 14.3% adjusted EPS growth compared to 2022.
  • In the fourth quarter, its same-facility revenue rose by 10.3% on the back of rate improvements and patient day growth.
  • Acadia also saw consistent improvement in its labor trends throughout 2023.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Its Focus on Higher Acuity Services in Hospitals & Other Core Strategies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tenet Healthcare’s Q4 2023 earnings indicated a strong performance, with net operating revenues of $20.5 billion, and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion, which translates into an attractive 17.2% adjusted EBITDA margin.
  • The company has demonstrated its ability to maintain profitability while focusing on quality and innovation.
  • Yet, some challenges were also mentioned during the earnings call.

Duplicate of Tenet Healthcare Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Its Focus on Higher Acuity Services in Hospitals & Other Core Strategies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Chemed Corporation reported their fourth quarter 2023 earnings with continued improvement in their VITAS operational metrics, including a 7% increase in admissions over the prior year period and an average daily census of 1,918.
  • This is an 11% increase in comparison to the prior year and suggests that a hiring and retention program initiated in 2022 to remedy any potential worker turnover and expand clinical workforce capacity has been successful in maintaining VITAS’ operational performance.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Its Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Examining the fourth quarter 2023 earnings for Dentsply Sirona reveals an investment thesis that emphasizes the company’s successful strategies, robust performance and rigorous financial discipline, alongside ambitious future business growth targets and consistent value creation for its stakeholders.
  • Starting with the positives, Dentsply Sirona achieved over 2% organic sales growth for 2023, outperforming projections via growth in three of its four business segments.
  • Notably, its orthodontic business experienced double-digit growth with both Byte and SureSmile.

Elanco Animal Health: Initiation Of Coverage – A Story Of Concentration on Pet Health and Livestock Sustainability! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In Q4 2023, Elanco Animal Health reported a 5% constant currency revenue growth, driven by innovations, the strength of the farm animal business, improved conditions in the European Pet Health retail market, and increased pricing.
  • The strong performance in 2023 indicates that the company’s innovation, portfolio, and productivity strategy are working, leading to confidence in the potential success of future investments.
  • Going into 2024, the company aims to focus on three priorities: sustained revenue growth, innovation, and improved cash conversion.

Fresenius Medical Care: Initiation Of Coverage – Innovation with AR in Dialysis Training & 4 Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fresenius Medical Care’s Q4 2023 earnings highlighted the progress made against their strategic plan that was set out a year prior.
  • The plan focused on significant structural, operational and cultural changes, with the operating model being transformed at the start of 2023.
  • This allowed the company to introduce a new financial report with increased transparency, which reflected a commitment to their operational turnaround initiatives that aided organic growth in both segments and improved operational performance.

Globus Medical Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increasing Portfolio Range & 3 Critical Growth Factors

By Baptista Research

  • Globus Medical, a leading musculoskeletal solutions provider, has reported record revenues of $1.569 billion for the full year 2023, marking a growth of 53% compared to the previous year.
  • The strong performance includes four months of sales after its merger with NuVasive.
  • This remarkable growth maintained the company’s industry-leading profitability, generating a record non-GAAP EPS of $2.32 and an adjusted EBITDA of 30%.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Its New wholly-owned medicines and Independent launches Can Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. had a remarkable year in 2023, with significant advancements in their RNA targeting platform and a steady stream of upcoming independent medicines delivering directly to patients.
  • The company’s forward-looking stratagem involves expanding their technology and broadening its applicability to cater to patients’ needs.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Medpace Holdings Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Medpace Holdings, a leading full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO), reported robust results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023.
  • The company’s revenue increased 26.5% year-over-year in Q4, reaching $498.4 million.
  • For the full year, revenue stood at $1.89 billion, a rise of 29.2% from 2022.

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Continued Investment & Growth for INGREZZA Paving The Way Forward? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Neurocrine Biosciences Inc, a biopharmaceutical company specializing in neurologic, psychiatric, and endocrine related disorders, showed significant growth during its remarkable year of 2023.
  • According to Neurocrine’s executives, the firm’s performance reflected the ongoing progress and the successful execution of business strategies with nearly 30% year-over-year sales growth for its flagship product, INGREZZA, which is a drug indicated for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia in adults.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Rakuten, Boston Beer Company Inc A, Simply Good Foods Co and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science
  • The Boston Beer Company Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Is Its Positioning In The Hard Seltzer Market Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
  • The Simply Good Foods Company: Initiation Of Coverage – Atkins Revitalization Plan


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

By David Blennerhassett

  • Murakami to tender stake in JSR Corp (4185 JP)? Maybe the “double arb”: i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.
  • Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected (for now) Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)‘s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.
  • If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy Rakuten (4755 JP) on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.

The Boston Beer Company Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Is Its Positioning In The Hard Seltzer Market Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Boston Beer Company’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings revealed an operational performance meeting the midpoint of their forecast, with depletions down by 6% for the year and gross margins achieving an improvement of 120 basis points.
  • However, net loss for the quarter indicated challenges, standing at $18.1 million, or $1.49 per diluted share.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

The Simply Good Foods Company: Initiation Of Coverage – Atkins Revitalization Plan

By Baptista Research

  • The Simply Good Foods Company achieved financial results that were in line with their estimates for the fiscal first quarter that ended on November 25, 2023.
  • The company reported an increase in its net sales by 2.6% to $308.7 million, propelled by the continuous momentum from its Quest range.
  • The 40-basis point increase in the gross margin, which improved to 37.3%, was attributed mainly to lower ingredient and packaging costs.

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