Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Today, cram school operator Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP) and 20% owner real estate developer Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) amended their Capital and Business Alliance agreement.
Hulic will buy 25.5% of shares out in a Partial Offer at +43.5% vs last. Then post-tender, they will buy shares at last from the company to go to 51.%
The founder will sell his 10%. The rest is interesting. It’s a high ROE high div stock. Some own it from higher. Pro-ration is tough to estimate. But we try.

Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP): Hulic (3003 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP) announced a partial tender offer and third-party allotment with Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP), the largest shareholder. Hulic aims to make Riso Kyoiku a consolidated subsidiary.
The offer is for a maximum of 39.4 million shares (23.15% post-allotment ownership ratio) at JPY320 per share, a 46.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 April).
Irrevocable (from the founder and Chairman) represents a 9.26% post-allotment ownership ratio. The offer is light, but there is no minimum acceptance condition.

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

The March 2024 rebal is done and dusted. When announced, there were 2 prospective DELETEs for Sep 2024. Now there is only one expected DELETE, Nippon Paper Industries (3863 JP).
The one likely inclusion is therefore Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP). But there is more fun afoot with Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP).
The two stocks – of totally different sectors – interact somewhat, both in determining Nikkei 225 direction, and their relative potential selldowns.

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Apr 09

Most Read: Riso Kyoiku, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Ryohin Keikaku, Azure Minerals, APM Human Services, Samsung Electronics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Azure Min (AZS AU): Trading Wide Ahead Of 8th April Vote
Riso Kyoiku (4714) Partial Tender (¥320/Sh) Followed by Third Party Dilution To Get Hulic to 51%
HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change or Two in June?
Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP): Hulic (3003 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer
Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is
Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone
APM (APM AU): Madison Dearborn’s “Disappointing” NBIO
Samsung Electronics: Block Deal Sale of 5.2 Million Shares by Lee Boo-Jin
Samsung Electronics Placement – Better Timing This Time Around
S-REITs: Climate Disclosures and Inclusion in ESG-Related Equity Indexes

Azure Min (AZS AU): Trading Wide Ahead Of 8th April Vote

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 19th Dec, Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM/B CI)/Hancock offered Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders A$3.70/share by way of a Scheme, a ~52% premium to the undisturbed price.
Creasy Group (12.64%) and Delphi Group (10.15%) gave irrevocables. Mineral Resources (MIN AU)‘s 14.5% stake was unclear; but they exited on the 21 Feb. “Arbitrageurs should arb. Corporations should Corp“.
The Transaction Booklet is now out with a Scheme Meeting on the 8th April. The IE says fair. Expected implementation on the 18 April.

Riso Kyoiku (4714) Partial Tender (¥320/Sh) Followed by Third Party Dilution To Get Hulic to 51%

Today, cram school operator Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP) and 20% owner real estate developer Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) amended their Capital and Business Alliance agreement.
Hulic will buy 25.5% of shares out in a Partial Offer at +43.5% vs last. Then post-tender, they will buy shares at last from the company to go to 51.%
The founder will sell his 10%. The rest is interesting. It’s a high ROE high div stock. Some own it from higher. Pro-ration is tough to estimate. But we try.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change or Two in June?

SenseTime Group (20 HK) is a potential deletion in June while Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) is a potential inclusion.
For yet another review, BeiGene (6160 HK) is a close add with the Velocity Test determining if the stock will be added to the index or not.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.95% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.6bn. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 4 June.

Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP): Hulic (3003 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP) announced a partial tender offer and third-party allotment with Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP), the largest shareholder. Hulic aims to make Riso Kyoiku a consolidated subsidiary.
The offer is for a maximum of 39.4 million shares (23.15% post-allotment ownership ratio) at JPY320 per share, a 46.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 April).
Irrevocable (from the founder and Chairman) represents a 9.26% post-allotment ownership ratio. The offer is light, but there is no minimum acceptance condition.

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

The March 2024 rebal is done and dusted. When announced, there were 2 prospective DELETEs for Sep 2024. Now there is only one expected DELETE, Nippon Paper Industries (3863 JP).
The one likely inclusion is therefore Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP). But there is more fun afoot with Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP).
The two stocks – of totally different sectors – interact somewhat, both in determining Nikkei 225 direction, and their relative potential selldowns.

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.
The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s AFR article on China’s Australian lithium holdings.
FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power International (LPI AU) precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship.

APM (APM AU): Madison Dearborn’s “Disappointing” NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

On the 28th Feb, PE-outfit CVC Asia Pacific bumped its NBIO to A$2.00/share, and was granted exclusive due diligence. On the 27th Mar, CVC said they were “unable to proceed“.
Today, the 8th April, Madison Dearborn Partners, holding ~29%, has pitched an non-indicative, non-binding Offer at A$1.40/share, in cash, by way of a Scheme. An unlisted scrip option is available.
A key condition is APM Human Services (APM AU)‘s executive-chair Megan Wynne, founding related parties, and key management, electing scrip. The Independent Board Committee reckons the Offer Price is disappointing.

Samsung Electronics: Block Deal Sale of 5.2 Million Shares by Lee Boo-Jin

After the market close on 8 April, it was reported that Lee Boo-Jin will sell 5,247,140 shares of Samsung Electronics in a block deal (up to 443 billion won).
The expected block deal sale price is 83,700 to 84,500 won per share, which represents a discount rate of up to 0.95% compared to the closing price on 8 April.
We are positive on this block deal sale and on Samsung Electronics. We would take the deal.

Samsung Electronics Placement – Better Timing This Time Around

By Sumeet Singh

KEB Hana Bank, on behalf of Lee Boo-Jin, is looking to raise up to US$325m via selling 0.1% of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).
The deal appears to be somewhat well flagged and the company recently reported better operating numbers for 1Q24.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

S-REITs: Climate Disclosures and Inclusion in ESG-Related Equity Indexes

By Kyle Rudden

New SGX climate-related disclosure requirements based on ISSB’s standards are more stringent than current requirements, most notably regarding mandatory Scope 3 emissions reporting.
The implications for S-REITs are significant. Real Estate is one of the most emissions-intensive sectors, and Scope 3 emissions comprise 85-95% of total emissions for real estate companies.
Motivated by a strong “business case” for best-in-class climate performance and transparency, many S-REITs are ahead of the curve, evidenced by prominence in climate-related indexes.

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Apr 09

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): S-REITs: Climate Disclosures and Inclusion in ESG-Related Equity Indexes and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

S-REITs: Climate Disclosures and Inclusion in ESG-Related Equity Indexes
Thematic Report : Is It Time to Bet on Indian Large Caps?
Ohayo Japan | Oil Cools; Shin-Etsu to Build New Japan Plant
India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi
2024 Capital Market Outlook – Seize the Historic Opportunity of the Upcoming Dollar Reset
The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 5, 2024
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Office Index Outperforms

S-REITs: Climate Disclosures and Inclusion in ESG-Related Equity Indexes

By Kyle Rudden

New SGX climate-related disclosure requirements based on ISSB’s standards are more stringent than current requirements, most notably regarding mandatory Scope 3 emissions reporting.
The implications for S-REITs are significant. Real Estate is one of the most emissions-intensive sectors, and Scope 3 emissions comprise 85-95% of total emissions for real estate companies.
Motivated by a strong “business case” for best-in-class climate performance and transparency, many S-REITs are ahead of the curve, evidenced by prominence in climate-related indexes.

Thematic Report : Is It Time to Bet on Indian Large Caps?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

When will large-cap stocks rally? Will large-cap stocks outperform mid-caps and small-caps in 2024?
To answer this we have taken a look at certain fundamental parameters which can help you to make an overall informed decision.
Interesting fact on large caps – As of FY22, the top 20 companies in India generate 80% of the total profits generated by India Inc

Ohayo Japan | Oil Cools; Shin-Etsu to Build New Japan Plant

By Mark Chadwick

Stocks closed Monday with minimal changes amid rising interest rates and anticipation of key U.S. inflation data
The number of companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Prime market has decreased by 20% since the market restructuring two years ago
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd (4063): Shin-Etsu Chemical will construct its first new plant in Japan in 56 years, aiming to bolster semiconductor supply chains

India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi

By Pranav Bhavsar

We visit the small, sandy town of Phalodi known for its betting market known as “Satta Bazaar”.
The people of Phalodi bet on anything and have been known for making accurate predictions about major events like the Elections.
The pundits anticipate more traction in terms of their seat estimates starting from April 10th, 2024. The tentative estimates currently stand at 330-340 seats for the BJP.

2024 Capital Market Outlook – Seize the Historic Opportunity of the Upcoming Dollar Reset

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

When there are not enough assets in the US to “store” the huge amount of dollar liquidity, the dollar reset would begin once the rate hike cycle peaks.
The depreciation of dollar would be inevitable. The US commercial real estate default is drawing near. The climax of the US dollar’s troubles could come in 2026 and 2027.
We don’t recommend investors and countries/regions to continue holding all dollar-denominated bonds, but instead switch to commodities and physical assets. We hope that investors can control risks ahead of time.

The Highlights – Cannabis News for the Week Ending April 5, 2024

By Water Tower Research

In a volatile week, the US cannabis MSOS ETF gained 1.10%, while the global YOLO ETF climbed 3.92% on continued strength of select Canadian names.
YTD, MSOS is +49.70% and YOLO is +39.47%.
AYR Wellness (CSE: AYR, OTCQX: AYRWF) finished at +8.47% and had the strongest week among the larger operators.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – Office Index Outperforms

By Water Tower Research

The Water Tower Research Office Index posted the best relative performance of the week, up 1.6%, compared with the other indexes, which fell between 1% and 2.8%.
Both the Residential Manufacturers (-4.4%) and Home Goods Retailers (-5.1%) had rough weeks on a relatively quiet news front.
Bassett reported its 1QFY24 results, missing our revenue and EPS estimates.

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Apr 09

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Greentown China and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Greentown China

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Apr 09

Daily Brief ECM: Samsung Electronics Placement – Better Timing This Time Around and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Samsung Electronics Placement – Better Timing This Time Around
Ansell Placement – Undertaking a Large Acquisition as Sector Headwinds Remain
P N Gadgil Jewellers Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Kayou Pre-IPO – The Positives – Strong FY22 Growth
BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Samsung Electronics Placement – Better Timing This Time Around

By Sumeet Singh

KEB Hana Bank, on behalf of Lee Boo-Jin, is looking to raise up to US$325m via selling 0.1% of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).
The deal appears to be somewhat well flagged and the company recently reported better operating numbers for 1Q24.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Ansell Placement – Undertaking a Large Acquisition as Sector Headwinds Remain

By Clarence Chu

Ansell Ltd (ANN AU) is looking to raise US$262m in its primary follow-on to partially fund its acquisition of KCPPE.
Despite the firm having been on an acquisition spree, it remains uncertain to us if the market has been factoring in such a large one.
The deal would be a large one to digest, representing 52.5 days of the stock’s three month ADV.

P N Gadgil Jewellers Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

P N Gadgil Jewellers (1742652D IN) is looking to raise up to US$132m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Motilal Oswal, Nuvama and BOB Capital.
P N Gadgil Jewellers (PNGJ from hereon) is an Indian organized jewellery player. According to Technopak, it is the second largest among prominent organized jewellery players in Maharashtra.
Its product offerings include traditional jewellery for special occasions such as weddings, engagements and festivities and modern and jewellery designs for everyday wear purpose, in gold, diamond, silver and platinum.

Kayou Pre-IPO – The Positives – Strong FY22 Growth

By Sumeet Singh

Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp (2228515D KY) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are CICC and Citigroup.
BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp (BenQ BM) is a general hospital operator.
As of Dec 2023, BenQ BM owned and operated two hospitals, with a total combined GFA of approximately 380,000 sqm and 1,850 registered beds.

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Apr 09

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Riso Kyoiku (4714) Partial Tender (¥320/Sh) Followed by Third Party Dilution To Get Hulic to 51% and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Riso Kyoiku (4714) Partial Tender (¥320/Sh) Followed by Third Party Dilution To Get Hulic to 51%
Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP): Hulic (3003 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer
Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is
Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone
Samsung Electronics: Block Deal Sale of 5.2 Million Shares by Lee Boo-Jin
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Still Outperforming
STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform
Special Changes in KOSDAQ 150: Deletion (NKMAX) + Addition (GI Innovation)
SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June
Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): Performance for Q1 2024, Gains Driven by Tencent, NAV Growth

Riso Kyoiku (4714) Partial Tender (¥320/Sh) Followed by Third Party Dilution To Get Hulic to 51%

Today, cram school operator Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP) and 20% owner real estate developer Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) amended their Capital and Business Alliance agreement.
Hulic will buy 25.5% of shares out in a Partial Offer at +43.5% vs last. Then post-tender, they will buy shares at last from the company to go to 51.%
The founder will sell his 10%. The rest is interesting. It’s a high ROE high div stock. Some own it from higher. Pro-ration is tough to estimate. But we try.

Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP): Hulic (3003 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Riso Kyoiku (4714 JP) announced a partial tender offer and third-party allotment with Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP), the largest shareholder. Hulic aims to make Riso Kyoiku a consolidated subsidiary.
The offer is for a maximum of 39.4 million shares (23.15% post-allotment ownership ratio) at JPY320 per share, a 46.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 April).
Irrevocable (from the founder and Chairman) represents a 9.26% post-allotment ownership ratio. The offer is light, but there is no minimum acceptance condition.

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

The March 2024 rebal is done and dusted. When announced, there were 2 prospective DELETEs for Sep 2024. Now there is only one expected DELETE, Nippon Paper Industries (3863 JP).
The one likely inclusion is therefore Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP). But there is more fun afoot with Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP).
The two stocks – of totally different sectors – interact somewhat, both in determining Nikkei 225 direction, and their relative potential selldowns.

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.
The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s AFR article on China’s Australian lithium holdings.
FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power International (LPI AU) precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship.

Samsung Electronics: Block Deal Sale of 5.2 Million Shares by Lee Boo-Jin

After the market close on 8 April, it was reported that Lee Boo-Jin will sell 5,247,140 shares of Samsung Electronics in a block deal (up to 443 billion won).
The expected block deal sale price is 83,700 to 84,500 won per share, which represents a discount rate of up to 0.95% compared to the closing price on 8 April.
We are positive on this block deal sale and on Samsung Electronics. We would take the deal.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Still Outperforming

With nearly 85% of the review period complete, there could be 15 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
Prior to the June rebalance, C&C International (352480 KS) will replace CanariaBio (016790 KS) in the index following CanariaBio being listed as an Administrative Issue and an Investment Attention Issue.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index since the start of the review period. Lighten positions ahead of the end of the review period.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform

The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
We forecast 10 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX).
Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and that could continue as we head to the end of the review period.

Special Changes in KOSDAQ 150: Deletion (NKMAX) + Addition (GI Innovation)

On 8 April, the Korea Exchange announced special changes to KOSDAQ 150. NKMAX will be excluded from KOSDAQ 150 and it will be replaced by GI Innovation.
NKMAX was designated as “administrative issue” and “investment attention issue” on 8 April 2024, which resulted in the Korea Exchange deciding to remove this stock from KOSDAQ 150.
We believe that this inclusion of GI Innovation in KOSDAQ 150 is likely to further positively impact its share price.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes in June

Nearing the halfway mark in the review period, we see 3 potential changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1.2-4.5 days of ADV on the inclusions and sell 0.9-1.3 days of ADV on the deletions.
Berli Jucker (BJC TB) continues to be a close add on liquidity while Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) and Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) continue to be close deletes.

Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): Performance for Q1 2024, Gains Driven by Tencent, NAV Growth

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Naspers and Prosus outperformed the benchmark by a large margin, ending the quarter up 7.3% and 6.7%, respectively. The Capped SWIX finished the quarter down 2.3%.
Tencent was up 3.5% in HKD and 6.5% in ZAR.
Tencent currently makes up 74% of Prosus’ NAV, down 1 percentage point from 75% at the start of the year.

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Apr 09

Daily Brief Macro: Technically Speaking: The Early Bird Gets the Worm and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Technically Speaking: The Early Bird Gets the Worm, China Retail Buys Hong Kong
Steno Signals #94 – Trading the FAKE business cycle
Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?
HEW: Data Keeps Doves Locked up
The Week at a Glance: US CPI to Surprise Hawkishly Paired with a Surprise Rate Cut?
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Ace Hardware’s Lifestyle, AKR Corporindo, and Sai Gon Cargo
The Cocoa Saga Continues – Be Careful
Monday Macro: Thoughts on the Next 15 Months

Technically Speaking: The Early Bird Gets the Worm, China Retail Buys Hong Kong

By David Mudd

Hong Kong market is at historically cheap valuations. So what’s new?
Capitulation bottom in late January/early February dramatically reduced shorts and now long positioning starts.
China retail buying is taking a cue from China’s government buying programs and SOE company directives.

Steno Signals #94 – Trading the FAKE business cycle

By Andreas Steno

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial!The fake business cycle strikes again.
In 2022/2023, the market was lured into the recession narrative by a weakening sentiment in various cyclical gauges such as the ISM Manufacturing.
Classic recession models are designed to try and use the cyclical momentum to assess the health of the broader economy 6-12 months later but the problem is that the cyclical economy is increasingly irrelevant for the economy.

Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Take aways: Booking profits in crude, staying long in broader metals. Crude predicting ISM to turn in 6-9 months time. Sluggish German IP ahead. Last week, we reached our profit level in crude oil, leading us to exit the trade successfully.
Our outlook remains bullish on commodities, spurred by what we perceive as a reflation head fake.
This optimism has prompted us to enter a long proxy-position in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), as we observe the rally widening across the commodity complex (Chart 1).

HEW: Data Keeps Doves Locked up

By Phil Rush

Data releases in the past two weeks have shown resilient trends, with output surveys and payrolls generally exceeding expectations, suggesting that rate cuts should remain on hold due to policy not being too tight.
The upcoming week is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of data releases, but several countries including the Euro area, Canada, New Zealand, Thailand, Philippines, South Korea and Peru will be making monetary policy decisions.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its data dependence approach rather than committing to a rate cut in June.

The Week at a Glance: US CPI to Surprise Hawkishly Paired with a Surprise Rate Cut?

By Andreas Steno

Welcome to our new “The week at a glance” publication.
We will briefly guide you on our nowcasts and expectations for key events in the week ahead.
Short and sweet as you know us! This week we look at the US CPI report, ECB- and BoC meetings and Scandi inflation from Norway and Sweden.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Ace Hardware’s Lifestyle, AKR Corporindo, and Sai Gon Cargo

By Angus Mackintosh

The past week saw insight on Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ), AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN), Delta Djakarta (DLTA IJ), and Isetan Singapore (ISET SP).
There was also a macro insight on Malaysia looking at religious tensions plus further insights on Best World International (BEST SP) and Thai Union Group (TU TB).
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.

The Cocoa Saga Continues – Be Careful

By The Commodity Report

Top Commodity Trader is Long Cocoa Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund bet on higher cocoa prices ahead of a massive surge last month, according to a Bloomberg article.
Andurand said his firm expects cocoa-beans production globally to be down at least 18% on an annual basis, compared to most analysts’ expectations of 10-11%.
“This means that we will finish the year with the lowest stocks-to-grinding ratio ever, and potentially run out of inventories late in the year,” he added.

Monday Macro: Thoughts on the Next 15 Months

By Adventurous Investor

I want to start this Monday’s Macro with a very top-down discussion before digging into helpful market data.
Here’s the thought – we’re entering a potentially dangerous, extended 12-to-15-month period for big macro debates.
What matters for markets globally is what happens in the US, and what matters in the US is what the US Federal Reserve is thinking.

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Apr 09

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Aster DM Healthcare’s Special Dividend & Restructuring and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Aster DM Healthcare’s Special Dividend & Restructuring
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab.
Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN): Business Recovery Seems To Be Overlooked by Mr. Market
Beaten Down Semiconductor Could be AI Play
Memory Monitor: Nanya’s Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising
Orion Holdings: Updated NAV, Higher Dividend Yield, and Exhuma Catalyst
Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) – New Product Cycles and Formats
Flower Foods: Highlighting the 4 Central Pillars of Its Growth Dynamics! – Major Drivers
Freshpet Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Healthy Expansion in North America & Europe And A Deep Analysis Of Its Business Strategy! – Major Drivers
Amaero Internaitonal (ASX:3DA) RaaS Interview Transcript 8 April 2024

Aster DM Healthcare’s Special Dividend & Restructuring

By Nimish Maheshwari

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) completes a significant restructuring, separating its India and GCC operations, with a consortium led by Fajr Capital acquiring a 65% stake in Aster GCC.
The substantial cash consideration received provides financial flexibility for further investments, debt reduction, or strategic opportunities.
Explore the implications of Aster’s restructuring on shareholder value, with a special dividend of INR 110 to INR 120 per share planned.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab.

By Patrick Liao

Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona have signed a non-binding preliminary memorandum of terms for US$6.6 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act.
We estimate the impact of the earthquake on April 3rd should result in a loss of within 0.5% in 2Q24F, which means it should not affect our 2Q24F revenue expectations.
TSMC’s 1st Japan Fab is expected to commence pilot production in February, and the 2nd Fab is projected to begin production of N6/N7 in 2027F.

Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN): Business Recovery Seems To Be Overlooked by Mr. Market

By Tina Banerjee

Gland Pharma Ltd (GLAND IN) reported mid-single-digit revenue and EPS growth in its base business (ex-Cenexi) during 9M FY24. The company is confident to end FY24 on a high note.
Gland Pharma starts FY25 on a strong note with gaining U.S. approval for eribulin mesylate injection, used for breast cancer that has spread to other parts of the body.
Over the next 12–15 months, Gland Pharma is poised for enhanced geographical foot-print in Europe through Cenexi. The addressable CDMO business opportunity is estimated at €4B.

Beaten Down Semiconductor Could be AI Play

By Douglas O’Laughlin

Maxlinear has probably been among this semiconductor cycle’s worst companies, if not the worst.
I think that it might be time to give them a fresh look.
Maxlinear was founded in 2003 in Carlsbad, California, by eight engineers. Today, Kishore Seendripu (CEO/Chairmen) and Curtis Ling (CTO) are still founders and work at the company. Maxlinear is a fabless company focused on mixed-signal products in the semiconductor industry.

Memory Monitor: Nanya’s Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

DRAM producer Nanya Tech will report its 1Q24E results on April 10th.
While Micron has said it is evaluating the impact of the Taiwan earthquake on its operations and has halted price discussions with clients, Nanya could provide latest DRAM outlook color.
Short interest has spiked ahead of Nanya’s results; We note that the company has a large revenue and margin rebound it needs to deliver on to meet 2024E consensus.

Orion Holdings: Updated NAV, Higher Dividend Yield, and Exhuma Catalyst