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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Crude Oil, Builders Firstsource, Bitcoin, Distribution Solutions Group I, PetroTal, Western Asset Inflation – Link and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply
  • Builders Firstsource (BLDR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024
  • Crypto Moves #23 – The Bitcoin ETFs Run the World
  • Distribution Solutio Gro Inc (DSGR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024
  • PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Better Balance Sheet than Expected
  • Wia Gold (WIA) – Thursday, Jan 11, 2024


EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply

By Suhas Reddy

  • EIA raised its crude oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025, cites higher global oil consumption outlook and concerns over geopolitical tensions.
  • The agency also increased global liquid fuels production outlook for 2024 compared to the previous month.
  • Increased forecast on US retail gasoline prices relative to March STEO, expects lower gasoline inventories and higher net exports drive price rise.

Builders Firstsource (BLDR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Builders FirstSource focuses on value-added and specialty products
  • Maintains industry-leading gross margins of 35%
  • Expands reach and solidifies position through strategic acquisitions and strong customer base

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Crypto Moves #23 – The Bitcoin ETFs Run the World

By Mads Eberhardt

  • 2024 stands out as the landmark year for exchange-traded crypto products, especially those related to Bitcoin.
  • After years of existing somewhat separately from traditional finance, the crypto market is finally being recognized as a legitimate part of the broader financial landscape.
  • The United States set the stage in January by securing approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the first US-based Bitcoin spot ETFs. To any observer, it is unmistakably clear that the United States has triggered a wave of global approvals for exchange-traded crypto products.

Distribution Solutio Gro Inc (DSGR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Market gaining confidence in DSGR’s management and growth strategy for potential multiple expansion
  • Strong acquisition pipeline and track record of successful integrations positioning DSGR for long-term success
  • DSGR offers an attractive investment opportunity with potential for significant upside due to recent developments and discounted valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Better Balance Sheet than Expected

By Auctus Advisors

  • 1Q24 production of 18,518 bbl/d was in line with our expectations.
  • Production over the last 30 days was 20.5 mbbl/d with the recently drilled 17H well, now on pump, delivering 4,500 bbl/d.
  • This bodes very well for 2Q24 production given that the 18H well is expected to commence production in May.

Wia Gold (WIA) – Thursday, Jan 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • WIA Gold is an ASX-listed gold exploration junior with a JORC compliant Resource of 1.3m ozs at its Kokoseb project in Namibia
  • WIA controls tenements adjacent to Osino Resources’ Eureka project and is in close proximity to Osino’s merger with Dundee Precious Metals (DPM)
  • The company recently raised A$11m to accelerate exploration at its projects in Namibia and Cote d’Ivoire, with plans for production at Kokoseb in less than 4 years, potentially resulting in a quick return on investment for WIA shareholders through collaboration with DPM.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , CGN New Energy Holdings, Melco International Development, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), China Jinmao Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending
  • CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • StubWorld: Melco Gains As Lawrence Ho Buys
  • Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bull Case
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Surfing the High Tide
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Yuexiu Property


Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending

By Ying Pan

  • We expect Alibaba to report CY1Q24 top-line, non-GAAP EBITA and non-GAAP net income in-line, (14.2%) and (7.4%) vs. consensus. We cut non-GAAP EBITA by 10% and kept topline unchanged;
  • BABA is prioritizing growth of both AliCloud and cross-border ecommerce (AliExpress), which will weaken profitability in the near-term but is the right thing to do. 
  • BABA is transforming itself into Chinese Microsoft with hopes of e-commerce mainly pinned on overseas. We maintain BUY and US$ 85 TP, implying 9.5x CY24 P/E.

CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that CGN, the parent and largest shareholder, is reconsidering taking CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) private. 
  • CGN New Energy shares have underperformed the median peer’s shares since the announcement of CGN’s previous aborted privatisation attempt (2 March 2020) and on the last twelve-month basis.
  • The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.80-4.30.

StubWorld: Melco Gains As Lawrence Ho Buys

By David Blennerhassett

  • Melco International (200 HK) gains as Lawrence Ho increases his position. Melco and 51.1%-held Melco Resorts (MLCO US) are the two worst performing gaming stocks over the past year.
  • Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SCBCBDID CH), a leading freshly made tea drinks company, will launch an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million next week, according to press reports. 
  • Biacha is China’s third largest freshly-made tea shop company in terms of retail sales value in 2023, according to Frost & Sullivan.
  • The bull case rests on a rising market share, high revenue growth, sector-leading margins, cash generation and a strong balance sheet. 

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Surfing the High Tide

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite YTD strengths in share price, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is still cheap at 5.7x PER and 0.9x P/B.
  • VLCC is forecast to stay undersupplied in FY24 and FY25, supporting the rates and CSET’s profitability. YTD, the VLCC rates have recovered by 19.5%.
  • LNG transportation generated 19% of FY23 earnings. With 40 more vessels on order, compared with a current fleet of 43, there is immense upside from this segment.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Bharti Hexacom, Bandhan Bank Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Bharti Hexacom IPO Trading – Strong Insti and Anchor, Retail Gave It a Miss
  • NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Still Cheap; Double Deletion for Bandhan?


Bharti Hexacom IPO Trading – Strong Insti and Anchor, Retail Gave It a Miss

By Sumeet Singh

  • Government of India raised around US$513m via selling some of its stake in Bharti Hexacom’s IPO.
  • Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the North East telecommunication circles in India.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Still Cheap; Double Deletion for Bandhan?

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Japan: Mitsui Fudosan, Fast Retailing, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan
  • Fast Retailing(9983) | Not So Fast
  • How Long Will the Escape from Deflation Be a Greater Factor in Stock Price Rises than ROE?


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan

By Travis Lundy

  • 9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. 
  • The stock popped 7% the next day to ¥1302, on the highest volume since the covid crash, hesitated a day, then powered almost 20% higher through the end of March. 
  • Today, Mitsui Fudosan responded with an Amendment to their Plan out to 2030. It has a higher dividend, a share buyback, higher EPS target growth, and higher ROE target. But…

Fast Retailing(9983) | Not So Fast

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fast Retail missed analyst estimates for Q2 sales and operating profit. Revenue growth slowed to 5% YoY
  • Full year operating profit guidance maintained at Y450 billion, just slightly below the street 
  • The stock is trading at 27x EV/EBIT, in-line with historical averages, but still expensive in absolute terms and versus global peers

How Long Will the Escape from Deflation Be a Greater Factor in Stock Price Rises than ROE?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Net profit per listed company increased 4.4 times over the 33 years from 1989 to 2023, which means only a modest 4.5% annual growth.
  • The reason why ROE has been sluggish since FY 2005 is due to the slow growth of Net Profit Margin, the decline of Asset Turnover, and the flat financial leverage.
  • When the escape from deflation becomes a reality, the key is to have products ready to pass on prices, and defense by cash alone is not sufficient for this purpose.

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Most Read: Socionext, Mitsui Fudosan, Sompo Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , Bank of Communications , CGN New Energy Holdings, Fast Retailing, Bharti Hexacom, Melco International Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; US$4bn One-Way; More Impactful Than It Looks
  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan
  • Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell
  • Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending
  • EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes and US$2.7bn Round-Trip Trade
  • CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • Fast Retailing(9983) | Not So Fast
  • Bharti Hexacom IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline
  • StubWorld: Melco Gains As Lawrence Ho Buys


Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; US$4bn One-Way; More Impactful Than It Looks

By Travis Lundy

  • The changes to the Nikkei 225 Average for the March 2024 Review were announced today after the close. A little earlier than I expected. 
  • Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; Takara Hldgs, Sumi Osaka Cement, Pacific Metals OUT. Nitori PAF increase. US$4bn+ to trade one way on 29Mar close. One interesting surprise. 
  • Overall more impactful than it looks. And it changes the front-end arithmetic on Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There may be fun on the DELETEs.

JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan

By Travis Lundy

  • 9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. 
  • The stock popped 7% the next day to ¥1302, on the highest volume since the covid crash, hesitated a day, then powered almost 20% higher through the end of March. 
  • Today, Mitsui Fudosan responded with an Amendment to their Plan out to 2030. It has a higher dividend, a share buyback, higher EPS target growth, and higher ROE target. But…

Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding – At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.
  • Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 16 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$6bn.
  • In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.

Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending

By Ying Pan

  • We expect Alibaba to report CY1Q24 top-line, non-GAAP EBITA and non-GAAP net income in-line, (14.2%) and (7.4%) vs. consensus. We cut non-GAAP EBITA by 10% and kept topline unchanged;
  • BABA is prioritizing growth of both AliCloud and cross-border ecommerce (AliExpress), which will weaken profitability in the near-term but is the right thing to do. 
  • BABA is transforming itself into Chinese Microsoft with hopes of e-commerce mainly pinned on overseas. We maintain BUY and US$ 85 TP, implying 9.5x CY24 P/E.

EM Watch: China is preparing something BIG!

By Andreas Steno

  • The below chart of ours have made the rounds in recent days and weeks as China seems to be preparing for something big given the heavy restocking efforts in Copper space.
  • As the price trends are diverging in copper versus steel and iron ore, the strategic initiatives of China are becoming increasingly evident in price action across the commodity complex, but we are yet to fully understand and accept the ramifications for global rates.
  • We have read plenty of bad takes on why China is building up copper reserves and the most obvious reason seems to be neglected by many.

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes and US$2.7bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearing completion, 6 stocks are in inclusion zone and 8 are in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 7% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.7bn (US$1.34bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
  • The inflows into mainland China ETFs have further increased the flow and impact on the potential changes. The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes.

CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that CGN, the parent and largest shareholder, is reconsidering taking CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) private. 
  • CGN New Energy shares have underperformed the median peer’s shares since the announcement of CGN’s previous aborted privatisation attempt (2 March 2020) and on the last twelve-month basis.
  • The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.80-4.30.

Fast Retailing(9983) | Not So Fast

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fast Retail missed analyst estimates for Q2 sales and operating profit. Revenue growth slowed to 5% YoY
  • Full year operating profit guidance maintained at Y450 billion, just slightly below the street 
  • The stock is trading at 27x EV/EBIT, in-line with historical averages, but still expensive in absolute terms and versus global peers

Bharti Hexacom IPO: Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Telecommunications Consultants India Limited (TCIL) raised US$513m by selling 15% of the shares outstanding in Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN). Post the sale, they still hold 15% of the company.
  • Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN) will start trading on 12 April and the grey market indicates the stock will open at INR 664/share, 16.5% higher than the IPO price.
  • Bharti Hexacom should be added to one smallcap index in August and another smallcap index in December. A move above INR 700/share could result in midcap inclusion in December.

StubWorld: Melco Gains As Lawrence Ho Buys

By David Blennerhassett

  • Melco International (200 HK) gains as Lawrence Ho increases his position. Melco and 51.1%-held Melco Resorts (MLCO US) are the two worst performing gaming stocks over the past year.
  • Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

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Daily Brief ESG: How Long Will the Escape from Deflation Be a Greater Factor in Stock Price Rises than ROE? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • How Long Will the Escape from Deflation Be a Greater Factor in Stock Price Rises than ROE?


How Long Will the Escape from Deflation Be a Greater Factor in Stock Price Rises than ROE?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Net profit per listed company increased 4.4 times over the 33 years from 1989 to 2023, which means only a modest 4.5% annual growth.
  • The reason why ROE has been sluggish since FY 2005 is due to the slow growth of Net Profit Margin, the decline of Asset Turnover, and the flat financial leverage.
  • When the escape from deflation becomes a reality, the key is to have products ready to pass on prices, and defense by cash alone is not sufficient for this purpose.

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Daily Brief ECM: Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bull Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bull Case
  • Bharti Hexacom IPO Trading – Strong Insti and Anchor, Retail Gave It a Miss
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Industry Analysis
  • ICTK IPO Valuation Analysis


Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SCBCBDID CH), a leading freshly made tea drinks company, will launch an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million next week, according to press reports. 
  • Biacha is China’s third largest freshly-made tea shop company in terms of retail sales value in 2023, according to Frost & Sullivan.
  • The bull case rests on a rising market share, high revenue growth, sector-leading margins, cash generation and a strong balance sheet. 

Bharti Hexacom IPO Trading – Strong Insti and Anchor, Retail Gave It a Miss

By Sumeet Singh

  • Government of India raised around US$513m via selling some of its stake in Bharti Hexacom’s IPO.
  • Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the North East telecommunication circles in India.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Industry Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight some of the important industry factors impacting HD Hyundai Marine Solution. 
  • Eco-Friendly ships are high-value-added ships that require more parts than conventional ships and are mechanically more complex, so the unit cost of parts is higher than that of conventional ships. 
  • Therefore, the ship AM (aftermarket) is a key industry that is expected to benefit from higher customer demand and increase service prices.

ICTK IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • Our base case valuation is based on P/S multiple of 20.8x using our estimated sales of 18.1 billion won in 2025. 
  • ICTK’s operating margin improved from -129.9% in 2022 to -38.2% in 2023. We estimate its operating margin to improve further to -12.4% in 2024 and 17.7% in 2025.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Dovish Fed Speak and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Dovish Fed Speak
  • Australia Banks – Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels
  • Shroom Shmooz – Spotlight on Psilocybin


Ohayo Japan | Dovish Fed Speak

By Mark Chadwick

  • Tech-Driven gains pushed the S&P 500 up by 0.74%, while the Nasdaq Composite hit a record high, surging 1.68%
  • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida addressed U.S. legislators, emphasizing Japan’s readiness to share the responsibility of upholding the international order
  • Fujifilm Holdings plans to invest $4.5 billion by 2028 to expand its biopharmaceutical contract manufacturing business

Australia Banks – Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021.
  • There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia’s banks as loan growth moves negative.
  • Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans.

Shroom Shmooz – Spotlight on Psilocybin

By Water Tower Research

  • From ancient rituals to modern medicine. Psilocybin is a natural psychedelic compound contained in more than 200 species of (magic) mushrooms that grow in diverse natural environments worldwide, from humid tropical forests to grassy meadows to urban green spaces.
  • Psilocybin has a long history of use in religious rituals and divinatory ceremonies of indigenous cultures going back millennia, but in more modern times has attracted a growing interest from modern medicine for its potential therapeutic effects on the neural pathways.
  • The properties of psilocybin and its active form psilocin closely resemble serotonin.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan
  • CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • StubWorld: Melco Gains As Lawrence Ho Buys
  • NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Still Cheap; Double Deletion for Bandhan?
  • Boral Backs Seven’s “Enhanced” Offer
  • Novartis/Morphosys: Start of Offer Period


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan

By Travis Lundy

  • 9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. 
  • The stock popped 7% the next day to ¥1302, on the highest volume since the covid crash, hesitated a day, then powered almost 20% higher through the end of March. 
  • Today, Mitsui Fudosan responded with an Amendment to their Plan out to 2030. It has a higher dividend, a share buyback, higher EPS target growth, and higher ROE target. But…

CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that CGN, the parent and largest shareholder, is reconsidering taking CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) private. 
  • CGN New Energy shares have underperformed the median peer’s shares since the announcement of CGN’s previous aborted privatisation attempt (2 March 2020) and on the last twelve-month basis.
  • The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.80-4.30.

StubWorld: Melco Gains As Lawrence Ho Buys

By David Blennerhassett

  • Melco International (200 HK) gains as Lawrence Ho increases his position. Melco and 51.1%-held Melco Resorts (MLCO US) are the two worst performing gaming stocks over the past year.
  • Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Still Cheap; Double Deletion for Bandhan?

By Brian Freitas


Boral Backs Seven’s “Enhanced” Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Boral (BLD AU) rejected Seven Group (SVW AU)‘s cash/scrip Offer, Seven slammed the Independent Expert’s report, calling the Target Statement “unbalanced, selective and risks fundamentally misleading Boral minority shareholders“.
  • Seven has now waived certain tendering thresholds, increasing the cash terms to A$1.70/share from A$1.50/share. Boral will also pay a fully-franked dividend of A$0.26/share, providing A$0.11/share of franking credits. 
  • The IE now considers the Offer to be reasonable. Boral’s board recommends shareholders to accept. This is done.

Novartis/Morphosys: Start of Offer Period

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Novartis published its offer document for MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) (US: MorphoSys AG (MOR US)) following approval by BaFin. The acceptance period has commenced on 11 April, and will expire on 13 May.
  • I remain confident NVS’ acquisition of MOR closes on track. I maintain my TP at €68/share, $18.25/ADR offer price, as deal will highly likely close in H1, in my view.
  • As of 11 April, gross spread is 0.82% and the estimated annual return is 7.78%. Long and tender.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending
  • Fast Retailing(9983) | Not So Fast
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Surfing the High Tide
  • Builders Firstsource (BLDR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024
  • M&C Saatchi – Moving into alignment
  • Sixt Se (SIX2) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024
  • DRX: Another Quarter, Another Beat; Increasing Target Price
  • Chesnara (CSN): Good 2023 results set platform for future progress
  • Wia Gold (WIA) – Thursday, Jan 11, 2024
  • Distribution Solutio Gro Inc (DSGR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024


Spending on Customers Precedes Customer Spending

By Ying Pan

  • We expect Alibaba to report CY1Q24 top-line, non-GAAP EBITA and non-GAAP net income in-line, (14.2%) and (7.4%) vs. consensus. We cut non-GAAP EBITA by 10% and kept topline unchanged;
  • BABA is prioritizing growth of both AliCloud and cross-border ecommerce (AliExpress), which will weaken profitability in the near-term but is the right thing to do. 
  • BABA is transforming itself into Chinese Microsoft with hopes of e-commerce mainly pinned on overseas. We maintain BUY and US$ 85 TP, implying 9.5x CY24 P/E.

Fast Retailing(9983) | Not So Fast

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fast Retail missed analyst estimates for Q2 sales and operating profit. Revenue growth slowed to 5% YoY
  • Full year operating profit guidance maintained at Y450 billion, just slightly below the street 
  • The stock is trading at 27x EV/EBIT, in-line with historical averages, but still expensive in absolute terms and versus global peers

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Surfing the High Tide

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite YTD strengths in share price, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is still cheap at 5.7x PER and 0.9x P/B.
  • VLCC is forecast to stay undersupplied in FY24 and FY25, supporting the rates and CSET’s profitability. YTD, the VLCC rates have recovered by 19.5%.
  • LNG transportation generated 19% of FY23 earnings. With 40 more vessels on order, compared with a current fleet of 43, there is immense upside from this segment.

Builders Firstsource (BLDR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Builders FirstSource focuses on value-added and specialty products
  • Maintains industry-leading gross margins of 35%
  • Expands reach and solidifies position through strategic acquisitions and strong customer base

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


M&C Saatchi – Moving into alignment

By Edison Investment Research

There has been a lot going on under M&C Saatchi’s operational bonnet, so delivering FY23 results a shade above market forecasts is a good result, especially given the difficult market backdrop. Earlier issues regarding outstanding put option liabilities are in retreat, with minority interests in FY23 down to 13% from 25% in FY22, and most remaining liabilities are expected to be settled in FY24. The focus is now firmly on optimising the operational structure. There has already been good progress, simplifying and achieving greater coherence on a regional-first approach, with better alignment to how clients (and potential clients) want to utilise the group’s global capabilities. The incoming CEO, Zaid Al-Qassab, who starts in May, should be taking on the group’s navigation in less stormy waters.


Sixt Se (SIX2) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Sixt is focused on increasing its market share and expanding into key markets such as Germany and Europe
  • The company’s strategy includes focusing on premium vehicles, strong relationships with OEMs, and utilizing franchise operations for global expansion
  • The Sixt family’s involvement and significant ownership stake indicate a commitment to the company’s success and continuity in leadership

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


DRX: Another Quarter, Another Beat; Increasing Target Price

By Atrium Research

  • ADF Group reported Q4 & FY24 financial results this morning that beat our expectations across the board.
  • For Q4, revenue came in at $88.4M (+72% YoY) vs. our estimate of $77.1M and EBITDA came in at $15.5M (+164% YoY) vs. our estimate of $13.6M.
  • FY24 marked another stellar year for ADF as it benefits from infrastructure spending across North America and the automation capex program at its Terrebonne facility.

Chesnara (CSN): Good 2023 results set platform for future progress

By Hardman & Co

  • Chesnara has announced its 2023 results.
  • Positive returns from equity markets and gains from acquisitions in the first half were somewhat offset by adverse changes to operating assumptions in the second.
  • Economic Value profit of £59.1m marked a good turnaround from a loss of £85.1m in 2022.

Wia Gold (WIA) – Thursday, Jan 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • WIA Gold is an ASX-listed gold exploration junior with a JORC compliant Resource of 1.3m ozs at its Kokoseb project in Namibia
  • WIA controls tenements adjacent to Osino Resources’ Eureka project and is in close proximity to Osino’s merger with Dundee Precious Metals (DPM)
  • The company recently raised A$11m to accelerate exploration at its projects in Namibia and Cote d’Ivoire, with plans for production at Kokoseb in less than 4 years, potentially resulting in a quick return on investment for WIA shareholders through collaboration with DPM.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Distribution Solutio Gro Inc (DSGR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Market gaining confidence in DSGR’s management and growth strategy for potential multiple expansion
  • Strong acquisition pipeline and track record of successful integrations positioning DSGR for long-term success
  • DSGR offers an attractive investment opportunity with potential for significant upside due to recent developments and discounted valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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