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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), Nitto Kogyo, Norcros PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Cosco Shipping Energy 1138.HK – Higher for Longer
  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Long-Term Growth Story Is to Expand Business Domain
  • Norcros – FY24 trading in line with expectations


Cosco Shipping Energy 1138.HK – Higher for Longer

By Rikki Malik

  • The Supply/ Demand imbalance in tankers will persist for longer, supporting earnings
  • A beneficiary of increased global tensions and higher oil and gas prices
  • Proposed Stock option scheme incentives management in the right way

Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Long-Term Growth Story Is to Expand Business Domain

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (Nitto Kogyo) is a leading manufacturer of distribution boards and panel boards for electrical and telecommunications infrastructure, as well as enclosures that house telecommunications and precision equipment.
  • The company has 45 sales offices and nine factories in Japan, including the new Seto Plant, which will begin operating in spring, 2024, and is working to expand its business in ASEAN countries, with overseas production and sales bases in China, Thailand, and Singapore.
  • In the renewable energy field, the company is focusing on EMS-related businesses such as solar power generation systems, EV recharging stations, and self-contained industrial solar power storage battery systems.

Norcros – FY24 trading in line with expectations

By Edison Investment Research

FY24 trading underpins Norcros’s compelling investment case, where its new product development initiatives, market positioning and self-help initiatives allow it to take market share in both the UK and South Africa. We believe that Norcros’s key strengths are underappreciated and that legacy issues have been resolved. Its rating is low at 5.6x FY24e P/E, which is attractive, especially when compared to its yield of 5.7% on its well-covered dividend. We retain our estimates and value the shares at 246p, implying c 40% upside.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Ercros , E2Gold Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Bondalti/Ercros: Board Will Seek a Sweetening
  • ETU: Company Update & 2024 Exploration Program


Bondalti/Ercros: Board Will Seek a Sweetening

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Ercros (ECR SM) ‘s advisors will seek an improvement in Bondalti’s €3.6/share offer, which comes amidst a sharp decline in EBITDA compared to 2022, and launched at the bottom of the cycle.
  • An improved offer price of €4.4/share, a 22% increase, would represent 6x EV/25e EBITDA, 11.3x 25e P/E, and thus could gain support from the Board.
  • Gross spread is 1.25%. Considering the potential for an improved offer price, I’d be long.

ETU: Company Update & 2024 Exploration Program

By Atrium Research

  • ETU’s land package remains one of the largest (681km2) and most prospective in Ontario, sitting in a top mining jurisdiction in the world spanning 80km along the Porcupine-Destor Fault hosting >100Moz Au.
  • The Company has laid out its 2024 exploration plans, highlighting a new focus to high-grade gold showings along the eastern extent of the Hawkins zone – a high probability target for resource growth.
  • ETU remains to be one of the cheapest stocks and hosts one of the largest land packages amongst junior explorers.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Amvis Holdings Inc, Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H, OSE Immuno and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side
  • Sinopharm Group (1099 HK): Sequential Recovery in 4Q23; Bleak Near-Term Outlook
  • OSE Immunotherapeutics – Funding accelerates Tedopi clinical development


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

By Travis Lundy

  • Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
  • This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider’s data, and one Very Large Flow.
  • I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 

Sinopharm Group (1099 HK): Sequential Recovery in 4Q23; Bleak Near-Term Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK) reported YoY and sequential growth in revenue and net profit in 4Q23. However, outlook for the sector remains bleak in near-term.
  • Last year, Sinopharm’s distribution business was impacted by anti-corruption campaign. The momentum of the campaign continues in this year also. This lowers conviction toward improving performance in 1H24 at least.
  • Despite of mid-single digit revenue growth, Sinopharm’s margin remains stagnant or is declining. Sinopharm still earns more than 70% revenue from low margin earning pharmaceutical distribution business.

OSE Immunotherapeutics – Funding accelerates Tedopi clinical development

By Edison Investment Research

Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, OSE announced an encouraging funding win with the receipt of €8.4m in non-dilutive public funding from Bpifrance (a French public sector financing institution). Proceeds will be directed to support the upcoming registrational Phase III study of lead asset Tedopi, in second-line treatment in HLA-A2 positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with secondary (acquired) resistance to anti-PD-(L)1 immunotherapy. This announcement follows the company’s $713m deal with AbbVie, reported in February, for preclinical asset OSE-230 (in chronic inflammation). Bpifrance in Q223 had granted €1.5m in non-dilutive funding to support the development of a companion diagnostic screening test to help identify HLA-A2 positive NSCLC patients, who have a higher likelihood of responding to Tedopi.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), Nitto Kogyo, Norcros PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Cosco Shipping Energy 1138.HK – Higher for Longer
  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Long-Term Growth Story Is to Expand Business Domain
  • Norcros – FY24 trading in line with expectations


Cosco Shipping Energy 1138.HK – Higher for Longer

By Rikki Malik

  • The Supply/ Demand imbalance in tankers will persist for longer, supporting earnings
  • A beneficiary of increased global tensions and higher oil and gas prices
  • Proposed Stock option scheme incentives management in the right way

Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 Jp) – Long-Term Growth Story Is to Expand Business Domain

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (Nitto Kogyo) is a leading manufacturer of distribution boards and panel boards for electrical and telecommunications infrastructure, as well as enclosures that house telecommunications and precision equipment.
  • The company has 45 sales offices and nine factories in Japan, including the new Seto Plant, which will begin operating in spring, 2024, and is working to expand its business in ASEAN countries, with overseas production and sales bases in China, Thailand, and Singapore.
  • In the renewable energy field, the company is focusing on EMS-related businesses such as solar power generation systems, EV recharging stations, and self-contained industrial solar power storage battery systems.

Norcros – FY24 trading in line with expectations

By Edison Investment Research

FY24 trading underpins Norcros’s compelling investment case, where its new product development initiatives, market positioning and self-help initiatives allow it to take market share in both the UK and South Africa. We believe that Norcros’s key strengths are underappreciated and that legacy issues have been resolved. Its rating is low at 5.6x FY24e P/E, which is attractive, especially when compared to its yield of 5.7% on its well-covered dividend. We retain our estimates and value the shares at 246p, implying c 40% upside.


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Daily Brief Financials: Banco del Bajio SA, Nikkei 225, EML Payments Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Banamex Update and Mexican Banks’ January Data – First Look at Early 1Q 2024 Trends
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 What’s Up Next: Up or Down?
  • EML Payments – Cutting the final link to PFS vendors


Banamex Update and Mexican Banks’ January Data – First Look at Early 1Q 2024 Trends

By Victor Galliano

  • We explore Citibank’s upcoming division of CitiBanamex and the forthcoming legacy Banamex IPO; given the market’s premium PBV ratios, this should support the Banamex IPO valuation
  • Sector trends to January show continued loan growth, but headwinds are building; rising funding costs are eroding credit spreads and credit costs are worsening, even though NPL coverage is healthy
  • BanBajio generates an ROE of 28%+, whilst highly capitalized and on more modest multiples than Banorte; we stay cautious on Banorte, due to the growing risks to returns and valuation

EQD | Nikkei 225 What’s Up Next: Up or Down?

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 Index last week bounced back, after a 2-weeks down pullback.
  • The index is at a fork in our view: it could go higher from here, but we would like to see a sustained, multi-week rally to be convinced.
  • If doubt about this potential rally continuation is strong, target the 40500-40800 price area to place SHORT trades against the index.

EML Payments – Cutting the final link to PFS vendors

By Edison Investment Research

EML Payments has entered into an agreement to settle all the outstanding deferred consideration payments relating to the acquisition of Prepaid Financial Services Group (PFS) for £15.0m/A$28.8m, which represents a £7.9m/A$15.2m discount to the originally agreed amount. This agreement concludes all outstanding actual and potential liabilities relating to the PFS acquisition in 2020. Combined with the agreed sale of Sentenial for A$54m, this substantially strengthens EML’s balance sheet and simplifies the group’s structure.


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Daily Brief Consumer: The Keepers Holdings, Mitra Adiperkasa, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) FY23: 30% YoY, Net Cash, Growth 6.8x PE, And A 7.6% Dividend Yield
  • Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year’s Resolutions
  • Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bear Case


Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) FY23: 30% YoY, Net Cash, Growth 6.8x PE, And A 7.6% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) demonstrated a 5-year CAGR of 16%/25% revenue/profit growth with an ROE averaging 20%.
  • FY23 surpassed our expectations with 17%/30% revenue and net profit growth. 4Q 2023 high season revenue and profit growth was an astounding 21%/75% YoY.
  • The stocks trades at 6.9x/6.2x PE FY23/FY24e with a 7.5% dividend yield (assuming ten centavos/dividend based on FY23 earnings for FY24 and a 50% payout ratio). 

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year’s Resolutions

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara. 
  • Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks. 
  • Mitra Adiperkasa remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive. 

Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (SCBCBDID CH), a leading freshly made tea drinks company, will launch an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million next week, according to press reports.
  • In Baicha Baidao IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on pedestrian store KPIs, unsustainable historical growth rates, declining contract liabilities, and margin pressure reflecting a fiercely competitive market.

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Daily Brief Utilities: CGN New Energy Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation


CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that CGN, the parent and largest shareholder, is reconsidering taking CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) private. 
  • CGN New Energy shares have underperformed the median peer’s shares since the announcement of CGN’s previous aborted privatisation attempt (2 March 2020) and on the last twelve-month basis.
  • The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.80-4.30.

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Daily Brief Industrials: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), Builders Firstsource, Sixt SE, Distribution Solutions Group I and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Industry Analysis
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Surfing the High Tide
  • Builders Firstsource (BLDR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024
  • Sixt Se (SIX2) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024
  • Distribution Solutio Gro Inc (DSGR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024


HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Industry Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight some of the important industry factors impacting HD Hyundai Marine Solution. 
  • Eco-Friendly ships are high-value-added ships that require more parts than conventional ships and are mechanically more complex, so the unit cost of parts is higher than that of conventional ships. 
  • Therefore, the ship AM (aftermarket) is a key industry that is expected to benefit from higher customer demand and increase service prices.

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Surfing the High Tide

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Despite YTD strengths in share price, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) is still cheap at 5.7x PER and 0.9x P/B.
  • VLCC is forecast to stay undersupplied in FY24 and FY25, supporting the rates and CSET’s profitability. YTD, the VLCC rates have recovered by 19.5%.
  • LNG transportation generated 19% of FY23 earnings. With 40 more vessels on order, compared with a current fleet of 43, there is immense upside from this segment.

Builders Firstsource (BLDR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Builders FirstSource focuses on value-added and specialty products
  • Maintains industry-leading gross margins of 35%
  • Expands reach and solidifies position through strategic acquisitions and strong customer base

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Sixt Se (SIX2) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Sixt is focused on increasing its market share and expanding into key markets such as Germany and Europe
  • The company’s strategy includes focusing on premium vehicles, strong relationships with OEMs, and utilizing franchise operations for global expansion
  • The Sixt family’s involvement and significant ownership stake indicate a commitment to the company’s success and continuity in leadership

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Distribution Solutio Gro Inc (DSGR) – Wednesday, Jan 10, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Market gaining confidence in DSGR’s management and growth strategy for potential multiple expansion
  • Strong acquisition pipeline and track record of successful integrations positioning DSGR for long-term success
  • DSGR offers an attractive investment opportunity with potential for significant upside due to recent developments and discounted valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Boral Ltd, Crude Oil, ADF Group , Geopark Ltd, PetroTal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Boral Backs Seven’s “Enhanced” Offer
  • EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply
  • DRX: Another Quarter, Another Beat; Increasing Target Price
  • GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Potential Acquisition of Unconventional Producing Assets in Argentina
  • PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Better Balance Sheet than Expected


Boral Backs Seven’s “Enhanced” Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Boral (BLD AU) rejected Seven Group (SVW AU)‘s cash/scrip Offer, Seven slammed the Independent Expert’s report, calling the Target Statement “unbalanced, selective and risks fundamentally misleading Boral minority shareholders“.
  • Seven has now waived certain tendering thresholds, increasing the cash terms to A$1.70/share from A$1.50/share. Boral will also pay a fully-franked dividend of A$0.26/share, providing A$0.11/share of franking credits. 
  • The IE now considers the Offer to be reasonable. Boral’s board recommends shareholders to accept. This is done.

EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply

By Suhas Reddy

  • EIA raised its crude oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025, cites higher global oil consumption outlook and concerns over geopolitical tensions.
  • The agency also increased global liquid fuels production outlook for 2024 compared to the previous month.
  • Increased forecast on US retail gasoline prices relative to March STEO, expects lower gasoline inventories and higher net exports drive price rise.

DRX: Another Quarter, Another Beat; Increasing Target Price

By Atrium Research

  • ADF Group reported Q4 & FY24 financial results this morning that beat our expectations across the board.
  • For Q4, revenue came in at $88.4M (+72% YoY) vs. our estimate of $77.1M and EBITDA came in at $15.5M (+164% YoY) vs. our estimate of $13.6M.
  • FY24 marked another stellar year for ADF as it benefits from infrastructure spending across North America and the automation capex program at its Terrebonne facility.

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Potential Acquisition of Unconventional Producing Assets in Argentina

By Auctus Advisors

  • GeoPark has submitted a binding offer to acquire a non-operated Working Interest in unconventional blocks in the Neuquen Basin in Argentina.
  • The offer has been accepted by the seller and the parties are working on an exclusive basis towards execution of definitive agreements.
  • The completion of the transaction could occur in 3Q24 

PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Better Balance Sheet than Expected

By Auctus Advisors

  • 1Q24 production of 18,518 bbl/d was in line with our expectations.
  • Production over the last 30 days was 20.5 mbbl/d with the recently drilled 17H well, now on pump, delivering 4,500 bbl/d.
  • This bodes very well for 2Q24 production given that the 18H well is expected to commence production in May.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Bharti Hexacom, ICTK and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Bharti Hexacom IPO Trading – Strong Insti and Anchor, Retail Gave It a Miss
  • ICTK IPO Valuation Analysis


Bharti Hexacom IPO Trading – Strong Insti and Anchor, Retail Gave It a Miss

By Sumeet Singh

  • Government of India raised around US$513m via selling some of its stake in Bharti Hexacom’s IPO.
  • Bharti Hexacom (BH) is a communications solutions provider offering consumer mobile services, fixed-line telephone and broadband services to customers in the Rajasthan and the North East telecommunication circles in India.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

ICTK IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • Our base case valuation is based on P/S multiple of 20.8x using our estimated sales of 18.1 billion won in 2025. 
  • ICTK’s operating margin improved from -129.9% in 2022 to -38.2% in 2023. We estimate its operating margin to improve further to -12.4% in 2024 and 17.7% in 2025.

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