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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

By Arun George

  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)’s IFA opines that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. 
  • The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. 
  • Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 20th):BeiGene and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 20th):BeiGene, Chalco, ZOOMLION, MA STEEL, ZTE, CCCC
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Hkex, Tracker Fund, Midea, Kuaishou, Jd, Bosideng
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 20th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Meituan

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 20th):BeiGene, Chalco, ZOOMLION, MA STEEL, ZTE, CCCC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 100.8% as of Dec 20th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 0.3ppt week-on-week, led by health care, financials, information technology and offset by real estate, consumer staples, industrials.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BeiGene, Chalco, ZOOMLION, MA STEEL, ZTE, CCCC.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Hkex, Tracker Fund, Midea, Kuaishou, Jd, Bosideng

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 13th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Hkex, Tracker Fund, Midea, Kuaishou, Jd, Bosideng.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 20th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Meituan

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 20th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Meituan, Tencent.

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief ESG: Companies Have Begun to Be Aware of Cash Flow and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Companies Have Begun to Be Aware of Cash Flow, but the Reality Is that It Doesn’t Produce Results

Companies Have Begun to Be Aware of Cash Flow, but the Reality Is that It Doesn’t Produce Results

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Operating income and depreciation, the components of operating cash flow, have been sluggish. This has undeniably dampened expectations for expanding corporate value.
  • Many companies have begun to be aware of cash flow, but have yet to see results. They are at the stage of producing results by selecting business to invest cash.
  • In terms of “not being conscious of cash flow,” shareholder returns are still strongly net income oriented and not cash flow oriented.

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Global Oil Market 2025: US and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Oil Market 2025: US, OPEC+ and Much More..
  • APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 22)- Mesoblast, Celltrion, Peptidream, Astellas, Hansoh, Lupin

Global Oil Market 2025: US, OPEC+ and Much More..

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Global oil demand growth is slowing, with projections to reach 103.8 mb/d in 2025. OPEC+ is delaying production increases amid weaker demand & rising competition from non-OPEC producers like U.S.
  • Geopolitical instability, a renewable energy shift, and challenges like China’s slowdown and high global interest rates are reshaping oil market dynamics, affecting prices and economic strategies.
  • OPEC’s influence is waning as non-OPEC players expand and renewable energy adoption grows. The oil market’s evolution highlights the urgent need for diversification in energy strategies.

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 22)- Mesoblast, Celltrion, Peptidream, Astellas, Hansoh, Lupin

By Tina Banerjee

  • After two rejections, Mesoblast has finally received FDA approval for its first drug. Celltrion has received FDA approval for its Stelara biosimilar, which will be launched in February 2025.
  • Peptidream has become eligible for a milestone payment. Sumitomo Pharma is strengthening R&D for regenerative medicine and cell therapy business. Astellas Pharma in-licenses technology for developing neurology drugs.
  • Hansoh Pharmaceutical granted an exclusive global license to Merck for its pre-clinical drug candidate. Lupin received FDA approval to market generic version of blockbuster Descovy tablets.

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Healthcare Global (HCG): Strong Q2FY25 Led by Operating Leverage and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Healthcare Global (HCG): Strong Q2FY25 Led by Operating Leverage
  • Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

Healthcare Global (HCG): Strong Q2FY25 Led by Operating Leverage

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • As HCG’s scale is growing and as its emerging centers are maturing, profitability is improving. Adjusted EBITDA crossed INR 100cr mark for the first time ever.
  • EBITDA grew by 21% YoY in Q2FY25 with EBITDA margin improving to 18.8% vs 17.8% YoY. Q2FY25 revenue also grew healthy at 14% YoY to reach INR 550cr+.
  • HCG also announced acquisition of a cancer hospital in Vizag that is margin accretive. Including this acquisition, EBITDA margin is 19% and proforma revenue growth is 20% YoY.

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

By Patrick Liao

  • Regardless of the circumstances, Intel Corp (INTC US) must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  
  • A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.
  • For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • November’s pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years
  • A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted
  • Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Dec 2024); Financials and Telecoms Still Tops and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Dec 2024); Financials and Telecoms Still Tops
  • Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Pentamaster Corp and AchiCapital’s Light Scheme Offer
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Beenos, Insignia, Henlius, GAPack, Fuji Soft, Goldlion, Malaysia Airports
  • HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!
  • A Potential Merger Between Honda and Nissan – Impact on Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.22) – Zai Lab, Junshi, How to Choose PA Good Doctor’s Special Dividend?
  • Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): IFA Says NOT Fair, But Reasonable; And To Accept Terms
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 Dec 2024): Pairwise Intracorrelation and Vol Even Higher

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Dec 2024); Financials and Telecoms Still Tops

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity fell 20% week-on-week this week. Net buying was a little stronger. 
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was a net SOUTHBOUND sell this week for the first weekly sell since it became Southbound-eligible. Friday was the largest one-day sell in that period.
  • Tech is still on the sell side and financials are still being bought very bigly.

Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Pentamaster Corp and AchiCapital’s Light Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Pentamaster International (1665 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital at HK$1.00 (HK$0.93 cash + HK$0.07 dividend), a 56.3% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The offer is final but unattractive compared to peer multiples. The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller, but there is risk due to a high AGM participation rate.
  • An arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging the valuation discrepancies across two exchanges may not sit well with minorities.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of

By David Blennerhassett

  • The new article on Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) from TV Tokyo is causing a dip on top of last week’s weakness. This is a dip to buy.
  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK)‘s Offer is now open for tendering. Ignore the rumours. Zhang Wei will tender. Expect payment before Chinese New Year. 
  • Accounting solely for the pre-IPO investors, 164.6m shares (US$1.9bn) in UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) will be unlocked, ~39.2% of the firm’s total shares outstanding, and 91 days of three-month ADV.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Beenos, Insignia, Henlius, GAPack, Fuji Soft, Goldlion, Malaysia Airports

By David Blennerhassett

HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

By Nico Rosti

  • As the year comes to its end, the trading calendar is impacted by two shortened weeks, with the Christmas holiday and New Year’s Day both falling midweek.
  • Holidays market trends can be affected by various non-market factors but it’s always good to check the indexes probability of trend reversals, to avoid surprises.
  • In this insight, we’ll take a quick look at the major Asia-Pacific market indices—a ‘Christmas Carousel of Odds‘ for Asian markets, if you will.

A Potential Merger Between Honda and Nissan – Impact on Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • A potential merger between Nissan Motor and Honda Motor would create the third largest auto group in the world.
  • If this merger is successful, it could have a short term positive impact on Hyundai Motor since it could result in a reduction of overlapping sales/marketing and production of Nissan.
  • However, a merger of Honda and Nissan could negatively impact Hyundai Motor over the long term because the merged entity could produce more high quality, price competitive vehicles.

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.22) – Zai Lab, Junshi, How to Choose PA Good Doctor’s Special Dividend?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Increasing revenue without increasing profits is “a big denial” of a company’s business model. Unless Zai Lab significantly reduces costs and maintains revenue high growth, its investment value is low.
  • Junshi’s 2024 revenue is likely to return to over RMB1.5 billion due to market share expansion in PD-1. Strict cost control will be the main theme for the future.
  • If PAGD’s share price is higher than HK$6.12, there would be arbitrage opportunity. If Ping An hopes other shareholders to choose cash dividend, future stock price may fall below HK$6.12.

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): IFA Says NOT Fair, But Reasonable; And To Accept Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 15th May, a consortium (Khazanah Nasional, EPF, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and Global Infrastructure Partners) collectively holding 41.22%, launched an Offer for Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK).
  • After some political gymnastics, MAHB squared away the necessary regulatory approvals, and a firm Offer was made on the 15th November. The Offer Doc dispatched on the 6th December. 
  • In the Circular on Friday, the IFA said NOT fair – with reference to a SOTP; but reasonable referencing historical market pricing and that no competing Offer will emerge. 

A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 Dec 2024): Pairwise Intracorrelation and Vol Even Higher

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are all over the place this week. Despite that, pairwise intracorrelation is…. up? Yup. Average Pairwise Volatility is up even more.
  • Some of this may be stocks being bullied by large SOUTHBOUND flows in a quieter end-of-year market. 
  • Finance is seeing big net SOUTHBOUND buying but that is not showing up in A/H premia. I expect things stay noisy through year-end.

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Motor, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • A Potential Merger Between Honda and Nissan – Impact on Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp
  • HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

A Potential Merger Between Honda and Nissan – Impact on Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • A potential merger between Nissan Motor and Honda Motor would create the third largest auto group in the world.
  • If this merger is successful, it could have a short term positive impact on Hyundai Motor since it could result in a reduction of overlapping sales/marketing and production of Nissan.
  • However, a merger of Honda and Nissan could negatively impact Hyundai Motor over the long term because the merged entity could produce more high quality, price competitive vehicles.

HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

By Nico Rosti

  • As the year comes to its end, the trading calendar is impacted by two shortened weeks, with the Christmas holiday and New Year’s Day both falling midweek.
  • Holidays market trends can be affected by various non-market factors but it’s always good to check the indexes probability of trend reversals, to avoid surprises.
  • In this insight, we’ll take a quick look at the major Asia-Pacific market indices—a ‘Christmas Carousel of Odds‘ for Asian markets, if you will.

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey.

By Patrick Liao

  • Regardless of the circumstances, Intel Corp (INTC US) must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  
  • A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.
  • For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief India: HealthCare Global Enterprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Healthcare Global (HCG): Strong Q2FY25 Led by Operating Leverage

Healthcare Global (HCG): Strong Q2FY25 Led by Operating Leverage

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • As HCG’s scale is growing and as its emerging centers are maturing, profitability is improving. Adjusted EBITDA crossed INR 100cr mark for the first time ever.
  • EBITDA grew by 21% YoY in Q2FY25 with EBITDA margin improving to 18.8% vs 17.8% YoY. Q2FY25 revenue also grew healthy at 14% YoY to reach INR 550cr+.
  • HCG also announced acquisition of a cancer hospital in Vizag that is margin accretive. Including this acquisition, EBITDA margin is 19% and proforma revenue growth is 20% YoY.

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Pentamaster International, Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Great Wall Motor, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Dec 2024); Financials and Telecoms Still Tops
  • Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Pentamaster Corp and AchiCapital’s Light Scheme Offer
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.22) – Zai Lab, Junshi, How to Choose PA Good Doctor’s Special Dividend?
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 Dec 2024): Pairwise Intracorrelation and Vol Even Higher
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Dec 2024); Financials and Telecoms Still Tops

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity fell 20% week-on-week this week. Net buying was a little stronger. 
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was a net SOUTHBOUND sell this week for the first weekly sell since it became Southbound-eligible. Friday was the largest one-day sell in that period.
  • Tech is still on the sell side and financials are still being bought very bigly.

Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Pentamaster Corp and AchiCapital’s Light Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Pentamaster International (1665 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital at HK$1.00 (HK$0.93 cash + HK$0.07 dividend), a 56.3% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The offer is final but unattractive compared to peer multiples. The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller, but there is risk due to a high AGM participation rate.
  • An arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging the valuation discrepancies across two exchanges may not sit well with minorities.

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.22) – Zai Lab, Junshi, How to Choose PA Good Doctor’s Special Dividend?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Increasing revenue without increasing profits is “a big denial” of a company’s business model. Unless Zai Lab significantly reduces costs and maintains revenue high growth, its investment value is low.
  • Junshi’s 2024 revenue is likely to return to over RMB1.5 billion due to market share expansion in PD-1. Strict cost control will be the main theme for the future.
  • If PAGD’s share price is higher than HK$6.12, there would be arbitrage opportunity. If Ping An hopes other shareholders to choose cash dividend, future stock price may fall below HK$6.12.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 Dec 2024): Pairwise Intracorrelation and Vol Even Higher

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are all over the place this week. Despite that, pairwise intracorrelation is…. up? Yup. Average Pairwise Volatility is up even more.
  • Some of this may be stocks being bullied by large SOUTHBOUND flows in a quieter end-of-year market. 
  • Finance is seeing big net SOUTHBOUND buying but that is not showing up in A/H premia. I expect things stay noisy through year-end.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • November’s pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years
  • A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted
  • Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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