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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Perfect Medical Health, Mobvoi, KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, Prosus NV, ENN Energy, Zhubajie Co Ltd, Pacific Basin Shipping, Nameson Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%
  • Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment
  • KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed
  • NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook
  • ENN Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Zhubajie Pre-IPO – Profitability Looks like a Long Shot
  • Pacific Basin (2343 HK): The Market Is Overly Conservative
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property


Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), post a correction of consumer discretionary stocks in HK, now trades at a yield of 11.5%, with cash&investments representing 24% of the market cap.
  • HK is experiencing a dip in consumer sentiment, and the company isn’t immune to it, but flat sales/profitability, a 24% net margin, and >40% ROE provide great margin of safety.
  • The stock trades at 9.3x FY24 PE and 11.5% yield (assuming a 110% payout average across company history) with a growth option once the HK economy kickstarts.

Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Mobvoi, an emerging AIGC market player in China, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$330M (~$42M) in Hong Kong. CICC and CMB International are leading the offering.
  • The initial public offering is expected to be between HK$3.70 and HK$4.10. At the midpoint of the range, Mobvoi has a market value of ~HK$5.8B based on 1491.5M outstanding shares.
  • In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and outline revenue growth scenarios for each business segment under my base case.

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

By Douglas Busch

  • KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
  • Toyota>Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
  • JD>BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.

NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have widened during the last 5 trading sessions.
  • We see current levels as attractive entry points for trading the rump.
  • In our view, there are a number of fundamental factors that could act as positive catalysts to a further structural narrowing of the discount.

ENN Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view ENN Energy as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This reflects the company’s large scale and diversified business profile across Mainland China as well as its robust financial position, with low leverage. These are balanced against ENN Energy’s exposure to commodity price risks and potential changes in government policies. In addition, the company has ongoing related-party transactions.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on ENN Energy is “Stable”, supported by the defensive nature of the industry and the company’s good cash-flow generation. ENN Energy has maintained c. 1.0x net leverage over the past five years.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. While natural gas is a fossil fuel, it has a lower carbon footprint compared to coal, and has been regarded as a “transition fuel” for countries currently dependent on coal (e.g. China and Indonesia). This will likely support strong gas demand over the next decade, particularly in developing countries.

We have a “Hold” recommendation on the XINAOG notes, with the 2.625 ’30s at 83.9/5.6%/5.7 years.


Zhubajie Pre-IPO – Profitability Looks like a Long Shot

By Ethan Aw

  • Zhubajie Co Ltd (ZHUHKZ HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Zhubajie (ZBJ) is a customized enterprise services e-commerce platform in China. The firm focuses on matching and facilitating the transactions between enterprise clients and service providers through its ZBJ platform.
  • In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): The Market Is Overly Conservative

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) just announced a US$40m buyback which equals 2.5% of market capitalisation, showcasing management’s confidence in the outlook.
  • At end-1Q24, it covered 68% of FY24 Handysize days at US$10,960/day and 78% of Supermax days at US$13,370/day, leaving significant room to capture the upside in 2H24.
  • Market consensus looks overly conservative with FY24 earnings of US$154m, given BDI of 1,808 YTD. The average half-year BDI and net profit since 1H20 is 1,822 and US$189m.  

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Shinko Electric Industries, Inageya Co Ltd, Softbank Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity
  • Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)
  • SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

By Arun George

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
  • The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
  • The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 

Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)

By Arun George

  • Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) announced a share exchange offer by United Super Markets (3222 JP) at 1.46 USMH shares per Inageya share.
  • The share exchange aligns with Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s well-flagged intention of making Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of USMH.
  • Aeon’s 50%+ shareholding in Inageya and USMH facilitates the two EGM votes. The deal metrics are broadly fair for both sets of shareholders. 

SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?

By Victor Galliano

  • Arm – which we estimate accounts for 45% of SoftBank group’s equity value – is experiencing limits to its “growth at any price” stock status; the shares fell 12% yesterday
  • The JPY’s depreciation is supportive of the group NAV, but with the Fed’s hawkish stance well known and BoJ expected to raise interest rates, JPY weakness may be largely done
  • SoftBank shares trade at a wide 53%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet we see downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential for JPY weakness to reverse

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Most Read: Shinko Electric Industries, JSR Corp, Celltrion Inc, Perfect Medical Health, Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, Azure Minerals, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Inageya Co Ltd, Softbank Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update
  • JSR (4185) – Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters
  • Locals Driving Corporate Reforms and 10 Korean Companies Recently Announcing Share Cancellations
  • Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices
  • Azure Min’s (AZS AU)’s “Boost” As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas
  • What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity
  • Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)
  • SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?


Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update

By Travis Lundy

  • When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider. 
  • 12wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 5wks ago, reco’d trimming.
  • Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, and gross spreads had come in 5+% on JSR’s approval. Spreads are now 3% wider than their narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms.

JSR (4185) – Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, the results of the JSR Corp (4185 JP) Tender Offer were announced. Bidco JICC-02 obtained 84.36% of the shares out in the Tender Offer. 
  • That means imminent index downweights, delayed index downweights, and theoretically another selldown on the last day of listed existence. 
  • News which came up since the start of the Tender Offer make this a little more difficult than it might have otherwise been. 

Locals Driving Corporate Reforms and 10 Korean Companies Recently Announcing Share Cancellations

By Douglas Kim

  • In a recent discussion with a client, one of the questions that was raised was regarding the impact the local investors are having on the corporate governance reforms in Korea.
  • The number of local investors in the Korean stock market has jumped in the past few years from 5.3 million in 2017 to 14.4 million in 2022.
  • All in all, I think Korea is about 3-5 years behind Japan in various corporate governance reforms. So it has a lot of catching up to do.

Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), post a correction of consumer discretionary stocks in HK, now trades at a yield of 11.5%, with cash&investments representing 24% of the market cap.
  • HK is experiencing a dip in consumer sentiment, and the company isn’t immune to it, but flat sales/profitability, a 24% net margin, and >40% ROE provide great margin of safety.
  • The stock trades at 9.3x FY24 PE and 11.5% yield (assuming a 110% payout average across company history) with a growth option once the HK economy kickstarts.

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
  • There are overlapping names for the two indices and some of the stocks will also have flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shang (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes between 9-10% for both indices over the last month with the deletes dropping a lot more than the adds.

Azure Min’s (AZS AU)’s “Boost” As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 8th April, Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Gina Rhinehart’s Hancock transaction. Shares promptly closed down 7% on regulatory approval fears.
  • Those fears are unwarranted. China’s Tianqi Lithium would indirectly own just ~11% in Azure post-deal.  China has recently lifted anti-dumping tariffs on a range of Aussie products. FIRB won’t block.
  • An expected approval may have spurred Gina to buy more shares in Lynas (LYC AU). Why buy now if FIRB dings Azure; that outcome would push the whole sector lower.

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

By Andrew Lu

  • TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.
  • No more Moore’s Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
  • Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

By Arun George

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
  • The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
  • The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 

Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)

By Arun George

  • Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) announced a share exchange offer by United Super Markets (3222 JP) at 1.46 USMH shares per Inageya share.
  • The share exchange aligns with Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s well-flagged intention of making Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of USMH.
  • Aeon’s 50%+ shareholding in Inageya and USMH facilitates the two EGM votes. The deal metrics are broadly fair for both sets of shareholders. 

SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?

By Victor Galliano

  • Arm – which we estimate accounts for 45% of SoftBank group’s equity value – is experiencing limits to its “growth at any price” stock status; the shares fell 12% yesterday
  • The JPY’s depreciation is supportive of the group NAV, but with the Fed’s hawkish stance well known and BoJ expected to raise interest rates, JPY weakness may be largely done
  • SoftBank shares trade at a wide 53%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet we see downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential for JPY weakness to reverse

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Daily Brief ECM: Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment
  • Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Growth Picking Up
  • Zhubajie Pre-IPO – Profitability Looks like a Long Shot


Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Mobvoi, an emerging AIGC market player in China, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$330M (~$42M) in Hong Kong. CICC and CMB International are leading the offering.
  • The initial public offering is expected to be between HK$3.70 and HK$4.10. At the midpoint of the range, Mobvoi has a market value of ~HK$5.8B based on 1491.5M outstanding shares.
  • In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and outline revenue growth scenarios for each business segment under my base case.

Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Growth Picking Up

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aadhar Housing Finance (AHF) is now looking to raise around US$600m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
  • AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
  • In this note, we look at the updates from the company’s recent filings.

Zhubajie Pre-IPO – Profitability Looks like a Long Shot

By Ethan Aw

  • Zhubajie Co Ltd (ZHUHKZ HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Zhubajie (ZBJ) is a customized enterprise services e-commerce platform in China. The firm focuses on matching and facilitating the transactions between enterprise clients and service providers through its ZBJ platform.
  • In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: KWEB Attractive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed


KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

By Douglas Busch

  • KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
  • Toyota>Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
  • JD>BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | TSMC’s Mixed Earnings Added to Market Jitters and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | TSMC’s Mixed Earnings Added to Market Jitters
  • The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 44
  • The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 46
  • China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 4
  • What Do Multinational Pharma Companies Know that Equity Investors Don’t?
  • Cloud Infrastructure Monitor – Upcoming Earnings Season Marks a Crucial Point for Sector and AI


Ohayo Japan | TSMC’s Mixed Earnings Added to Market Jitters

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks closed mostly lower on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 0.22% for its fifth consecutive session of losses
  • After-Hours, Netflix revealed strong subscriber growth but slightly missed revenue guidance, causing its shares to dip over 2%
  • Oracle plans to invest over $8 billion in Japan over the next decade to expand its data center infrastructure

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 44

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Five stock remains, nine stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 188% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 68%

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 46

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: Two stocks remain, 12 stocks added to our portfolio
  • Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 227% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 26%

China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 4

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Entering 2024, more provinces/regions have included assisted reproductive medical service projects into medical insurance reimbursement scope. It is expected that the government will accelerate the introduction of supporting measures ahead.
  • Livzon’s performance in 2023 was disappointing.For BGI, even if the BIOSECURE Act passes and BGI is sanctioned by the US, the overall impact on the company is limited and controllable.
  • Jinxin has gradually recovered from the negative impact of COVID-19.With the recovery of international flights and the increase in the number of patients, the Company would be back on track. 

What Do Multinational Pharma Companies Know that Equity Investors Don’t?

By Avien Pillay

  • There has been a significant increase in out-licensing deals in China over the last four years; numbers are at an all-time high. 
  • There is a big deviation between actions of multinational drug companies and equity investors – over a similar period, the FTSE Pharma and Biotech index is down over 50%.
  • We have witnessed an improved environment for aspiring local Chinese biotech and pharma companies.

Cloud Infrastructure Monitor – Upcoming Earnings Season Marks a Crucial Point for Sector and AI

By Water Tower Research

  • Setting up to be a crucial quarter for the major cloud infrastructure providers and broader tech as investors focus on the cost/benefits of AI.
  • Over the last decade, AMZN, MSFT, and GOOGL have garnered outsized investor attention, in part due to their size, but equally due to each of their rapidly growing tech infrastructure businesses (AWS, Azure, and GCP, respectively).
  • Based on the capex commentary from all three exiting the December quarter, investors are hoping for early signs of business AI traction, but also bracing for greater clarity around the costs.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%
  • What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Sales in Line, 2024F Is Lowering the Growth Target Below 25% YoY
  • Greenhaven Road’s Scott Miller shares his thoughts on point of sale business, PAR Technologies $PAR
  • IMMR: New Investment and the Impact
  • Wix.com Ltd.: A Story Of Product Enhancements & Innovations Fueled by AI! – Major Drivers
  • AppFolio Inc.: Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) & 3 Key Growth Levers
  • KBR Inc.: How Significant Is The Upside In Government Solutions? – Major Drivers
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Accelerated US Growth in 1Q24; Two More US Launches Likely in 2024
  • SentinelOne Inc.: Is Its Focus On Key Areas Of Competitive Strength Paying Off? – Major Drivers


Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), post a correction of consumer discretionary stocks in HK, now trades at a yield of 11.5%, with cash&investments representing 24% of the market cap.
  • HK is experiencing a dip in consumer sentiment, and the company isn’t immune to it, but flat sales/profitability, a 24% net margin, and >40% ROE provide great margin of safety.
  • The stock trades at 9.3x FY24 PE and 11.5% yield (assuming a 110% payout average across company history) with a growth option once the HK economy kickstarts.

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

By Andrew Lu

  • TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.
  • No more Moore’s Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
  • Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Sales in Line, 2024F Is Lowering the Growth Target Below 25% YoY

By Patrick Liao

  • Declaring a slower recovery for mature nodes was an outlier, indicating that Vanguard’s recovery progress might be slower. 
  • Apple’s iPhone is expected to be the focus for N2 production in 4Q15F.  
  • TSMC’s long-term gross margin is set at 53%, signifying a few key points. 

Greenhaven Road’s Scott Miller shares his thoughts on point of sale business, PAR Technologies $PAR

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Interview with Scott Miller, CIO at Greenhaven discussing Par technologies and recent developments
  • Par technologies is a stable point of sale software company focused on food services industry
  • Company has shown strong progress in organic growth and acquisitions, with potential for further upside in the stock market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


IMMR: New Investment and the Impact

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IMMR is using the gains from Q124 to make an investment in BNED. IMMR intends to invest $45 million to purchase new shares at $0.05 per share.
  • IMMR’s stock continues to trade at a slight premium to cash even though the operating business has continued to expand in auto
  • IMMR disclosed it ended the first quarter of 2024 with approximately $200 million in shareholder equity. This would equate to a sequential increase of approximately $17 million

Wix.com Ltd.: A Story Of Product Enhancements & Innovations Fueled by AI! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Wix reported strong Q4 2023 earnings underpinned by its pivot to AI innovation.
  • 2023 was a year of significant progress for the firm as it demonstrated robust growth, reaching record profitability levels.
  • With the focus on AI, Wix introduced an array of AI-powered features that would help users create web content more efficiently, resulting in improved monetization and heightened user conversion rates.

AppFolio Inc.: Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) & 3 Key Growth Levers

By Baptista Research

  • AppFolio, Inc. has shown a steady growth pattern in its fourth quarter of 2023, which according to the results, has been due to a sharp expansion in innovation alongside profitable growth.
  • In the final quarter, the revenue of the company increased by 39% year over year reaching $172 million.
  • This steady surge has contributed to an annual increase of 31%, pushing the total to $620 million.

KBR Inc.: How Significant Is The Upside In Government Solutions? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • KBR, Inc. achieved solid results in the Q4 and FY 2023, meeting or exceeding expectations on all key metrics.
  • Revenue grew by 11%, and adjusted EBITDA by 12% year-on-year, with margins increasing to 10.7%.
  • Cash management was a highlight, with the company settling both the convert and warrants in cash, reducing share count while avoiding dilution, and management described it as ‘delivering on its commitment to maximise shareholder return.’ The company ended the year with a good order backlog, providing visibility of future earnings potential.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Accelerated US Growth in 1Q24; Two More US Launches Likely in 2024

By Tina Banerjee

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) reported 18% QoQ revenue growth in 1Q24. The U.S. revenue growth accelerated to 18% QoQ in 1Q24, compared to 11% in 4Q23 and 13% in 3Q23.
  • Telix reaffirmed guidance and expects 2024 revenue of $445–465M, representing 35–40% YoY increase. The current quarterly U.S. revenue run-rate of Illuccix matches the lower end of the guidance.
  • Telix is on track to launch three products in U.S. this year. Two of them have an estimated initial market opportunity of $600–640M, with upside potential from indication expansions.

SentinelOne Inc.: Is Its Focus On Key Areas Of Competitive Strength Paying Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SentinelOne closed the year with stellar performance, surpassing its fourth-quarter expectations across all metrics, including revenue, gross margin, and operating margin.
  • Moreover, the company reported its annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 39% year-over-year to $724 million, primarily due to new customer acquisitions and strong expansion rates.
  • The growing interest in AI-powered security solutions, driven by the rising incidence of cyberattacks, is resulting in robust demand for SentinelOne’s offerings.

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Daily Brief Credit: ENN Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ENN Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property


ENN Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view ENN Energy as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This reflects the company’s large scale and diversified business profile across Mainland China as well as its robust financial position, with low leverage. These are balanced against ENN Energy’s exposure to commodity price risks and potential changes in government policies. In addition, the company has ongoing related-party transactions.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on ENN Energy is “Stable”, supported by the defensive nature of the industry and the company’s good cash-flow generation. ENN Energy has maintained c. 1.0x net leverage over the past five years.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. While natural gas is a fossil fuel, it has a lower carbon footprint compared to coal, and has been regarded as a “transition fuel” for countries currently dependent on coal (e.g. China and Indonesia). This will likely support strong gas demand over the next decade, particularly in developing countries.

We have a “Hold” recommendation on the XINAOG notes, with the 2.625 ’30s at 83.9/5.6%/5.7 years.


Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Azure Min’s (AZS AU)’s “Boost” As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Azure Min’s (AZS AU)’s “Boost” As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity
  • Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)
  • SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?
  • NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook


Azure Min’s (AZS AU)’s “Boost” As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 8th April, Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Gina Rhinehart’s Hancock transaction. Shares promptly closed down 7% on regulatory approval fears.
  • Those fears are unwarranted. China’s Tianqi Lithium would indirectly own just ~11% in Azure post-deal.  China has recently lifted anti-dumping tariffs on a range of Aussie products. FIRB won’t block.
  • An expected approval may have spurred Gina to buy more shares in Lynas (LYC AU). Why buy now if FIRB dings Azure; that outcome would push the whole sector lower.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

By Arun George

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
  • The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
  • The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 

Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)

By Arun George

  • Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) announced a share exchange offer by United Super Markets (3222 JP) at 1.46 USMH shares per Inageya share.
  • The share exchange aligns with Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s well-flagged intention of making Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of USMH.
  • Aeon’s 50%+ shareholding in Inageya and USMH facilitates the two EGM votes. The deal metrics are broadly fair for both sets of shareholders. 

SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?

By Victor Galliano

  • Arm – which we estimate accounts for 45% of SoftBank group’s equity value – is experiencing limits to its “growth at any price” stock status; the shares fell 12% yesterday
  • The JPY’s depreciation is supportive of the group NAV, but with the Fed’s hawkish stance well known and BoJ expected to raise interest rates, JPY weakness may be largely done
  • SoftBank shares trade at a wide 53%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet we see downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential for JPY weakness to reverse

NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have widened during the last 5 trading sessions.
  • We see current levels as attractive entry points for trading the rump.
  • In our view, there are a number of fundamental factors that could act as positive catalysts to a further structural narrowing of the discount.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #24 – Bitcoin Is A Safe Haven When There’s Nothing to Worry About and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #24 – Bitcoin Is A Safe Haven When There’s Nothing to Worry About


Crypto Moves #24 – Bitcoin Is A Safe Haven When There’s Nothing to Worry About

By Mads Eberhardt

  • In issue #17 of Crypto Moves, we described MicroStrategy’s co-founder and Chairman, Michael Saylor, as today’s Satoshi Nakamoto when it comes to Bitcoin narratives.
  • While Satoshi Nakamoto was the creator of Bitcoin and the miner of its genesis block, Michael Saylor has emerged as a key leader in the last few years, promoting and supporting the current narratives that have driven Bitcoin to new peaks.
  • These narratives have primarily centered on Bitcoin being a store of value, especially as an inflation hedge and a safe haven during economic crises and geopolitical instability.

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