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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Alibaba Group Holding , JTower, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Midea Group Co Ltd A, Asahi Intecc, Kangwon Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • TCM (570 HK): Where’s The Floor?
  • Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?
  • China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Things Are Still Manageable
  • J Tower (4485) – Once Ambitious, Still High Growth, Sells Itself Low/Cheapish.
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls
  • Midea A/H Listing – Getting Closer to the US$3bn+ Raising, Has a Narrow Window
  • Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus
  • Examining the September Reshuffle of the KOSPI Size Index Series
  • TCM (570 HK): A Spoonful Of Sugar …
  • Midea Group (000333 CH): Index Implications at US$3bn Issue Size


TCM (570 HK): Where’s The Floor?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Just plain ugly. China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) (“TCM”) fell 11.7% yesterday. It’s down another 7.9%, on large volume, as I type.  The stock is now ~35% below terms
  • Depending on who you talk to, the sudden move was triggered by a couple of event pods dumping stock; or the incoming CNPGC chairman is not supportive. Or perhaps both. 
  • Since rumours surfaced early Feb as to an Offer, a basket of TCM’s peers are up 8% on average. The HSI is up 15%. TCM’s downside from here appears limited.

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

By Brian Freitas

  • In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
  • The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
  • Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here. 

China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Things Are Still Manageable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • What disappoints investors is that privatization progress is slower-than-expected. Since approval is in “advanced stage”, August update is eye-catching. Investors may need more patience with this type of SOE deal. 
  • The key to the success of this privatization lies in whether CNPGC is willing to abide by its commitments. If yes, CNPGC will take all measures to solve the problems.
  • According to our valuation calculation, even without this privatization, HK$3.5/share is fair for China TCM. Reasonable share price is above HK$5/share. Don’t forget, the privatization is still on the agenda.

J Tower (4485) – Once Ambitious, Still High Growth, Sells Itself Low/Cheapish.

By Travis Lundy

  • JTower (4485 JP) IPOed itself Dec-2019 at ¥1,600/share. An 8-bagger in a year, fell by half, doubled, fell 70%, then doubled, fell 35%, up 50%. That’s the first 3yrs.
  • Since then, the trend has been lower. The stock is down 80+% in 2 years, especially painful after an equity raise at just under ¥5,000 6 months ago.
  • But the stock today closed at ¥1,430, and the Tender Offer is at ¥3,600. A 150% premium. That’s big, but it may be “too low.” An interesting case.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update reinforces the bull case. The gross spread has remained uncomfortably high since falling on no news on 26 June. 
  • The monthly update will relieve the bulls, as the consortium has finally made the regulatory submissions. The update stresses that the filing delay is due to an unwieldy consortium. 
  • Potential stumbling blocks remain, which should not be an issue. Nevertheless, the risk (17.7% downside to the undisturbed price)/reward (21.4% gross spread) remains attractive. 

Midea A/H Listing – Getting Closer to the US$3bn+ Raising, Has a Narrow Window

By Sumeet Singh

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) one of the world’s largest home appliance producers, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its H-share listing.
  • Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.
  • We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus

By Andrew Jackson

  • 7747 Asahi Intec announced FY06/25 OP guidance of Y25.2bn, close to street expectations, pointing to substantial upside. GPM guidance has increased and continuation of strong 4Q YoY sales is expected.
  • Seven days of short interest outstanding could lead to a short squeeze; Earnings briefing tomorrow reinforcing these trends should be a further catalyst for upside.
  • With short interest now low and limited potential for further gains after the recent rebound, 7733 Olympus appears to be losing momentum, especially with China sales continuing to flag.

Examining the September Reshuffle of the KOSPI Size Index Series

By Sanghyun Park

  • The September KOSPI Size Index rebalancing could bring back the typical price impacts seen over the past decade, unlike the March rebalancing.
  • The previous rebalancing had anomalies due to newly listed stocks in LARGE and a stronger downward trend in LARGE-to-MID transitions, disrupting the expected price impact.
  • For September’s rebalancing, fewer distortions are expected compared to March. The NPS Mid to Small Cap fund, a key influence, shows no significant changes in benchmark or AUM.

TCM (570 HK): A Spoonful Of Sugar …

By David Blennerhassett

  • A 14.8% gain month-to-date, including this past Monday’s 6.5% pop – you just knew something positive was taking place behind closed doors. And leaking its way into the public.   
  • So it was no real surprise to read in the latest monthly update announcement on the HKEx that various regulatory approvals are almost, but not quite, satisfied.
  • The wording in the announcement strikes a positive tone. Even remaining conservative on the timeline, this could be wrapped up before year-end. 

Midea Group (000333 CH): Index Implications at US$3bn Issue Size

By Brian Freitas

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) has got approval to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports are that the listing could be up to US$3bn.
  • That issue size is around half of the maximum that the company can issue. But it would still need cornerstone investors and a nice discount on the H-shares.
  • The stock will still get included in some indices even with the scaled down size, and inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect is a given.

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Daily Brief Financials: Bank Of Baroda, KE Holdings , Yanlord Land, Teton Advisors, Defi Technologies , Ascot Corp, Arbitrum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps
  • [KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Market Share Gain Is the Main Catalyst
  • Yanlord Land – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Teton Advisors Inc (TETAA) – Thursday, May 16, 2024
  • Blowout Quarter Led by DeFi Alpha Raising 2024 EPS Estimate & Price Target
  • Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update
  • Crypto Moves #39 – The Token Unlocking Saga Is (Mostly) a One-Way Down Game


Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

By Victor Galliano

  • Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
  • UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability 
  • Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low

[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Market Share Gain Is the Main Catalyst

By Eric Wen

  • KE Holdings (BEKE) reported C2Q24 revenue 12%/9% higher than our estimates/consensus, and non-GAAP NI 19%/49% higher than our estimates/consensus, due to market share gain and take rate hike.
  • We particularly like its business scalability, as its agent efficiency kept stable despite growing connected agents.
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$24 to reflect the better growth outlook from market share gains.

Yanlord Land – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Yanlord Land’s H1/24 results were acceptable in our view. The company reported robust top-line growth, albeit margins weakened amid the difficult operating environment. Positively, Yanlord continued to reduce debt and maintain stable leverage. In addition, the company has successfully refinanced its borrowings using cheaper onshore secured debt, which has helped to improve interest costs.

That said, Yanlord’s headroom to raise future secured debt has been reduced, as the bulk of its investment properties has already been pledged. Still, the company might be able to upsize its existing secured loans with higher LTV, or issue loans backed against new assets. Meanwhile, Yanlord continues to face sales pressure and a shrinking land bank in the absence of new land acquisitions.


Teton Advisors Inc (TETAA) – Thursday, May 16, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Majority owned by Mario Gabelli, public small cap value asset manager
  • Market cap primarily cash, trading at depressed earnings
  • Potential “free option” on small/microcap rebound or merger with GAMCO, stable AUM, earned $1.00 in cash earnings in 2023

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Blowout Quarter Led by DeFi Alpha Raising 2024 EPS Estimate & Price Target

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Key 2Q24 takeaways include: 1) DeFi Alpha’s proprietary trading desk is increasingly adding another powerful driver to the company’s differentiated revenue model
  • 2) the pending acquisition of Stillman Digital further augments and diversifies DEFTF’s customer base and revenue opportunities
  • 3) management recently adopted cryptocurrencies as the company’s primary treasury reserve asset to mitigate the effects of inflation and generate higher yields on excess liquidity

Ascot Corp (3264 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY15.1bn (+26.8% YoY), operating profit to JPY2.4bn (+95.6% YoY), and recurring profit to JPY1.3bn (+119.0% YoY).
  • As of end-Q3 FY09/24, progress versus full-year forecast: revenue 50.4%, operating profit 80.4%, recurring profit 84.4%, net income 63.9%.
  • Real estate for sale increased to JPY37.1bn (+JPY11.7bn from end-FY09/23), and total assets increased to JPY85.5bn (+JPY17.7bn).

Crypto Moves #39 – The Token Unlocking Saga Is (Mostly) a One-Way Down Game

By Mads Eberhardt

  • In recent years, we have seen a surge in new crypto projects launching with billion-dollar market capitalizations right from the start.
  • This trend includes projects like Aptos, Sui, Celestia, and others.
  • If you examine the top 100 cryptocurrencies, it is evident that the list increasingly comprises recently launched, highly hyped cryptocurrencies that boast valuations that would make many Nasdaq-listed companies envious.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rise on Cool CPI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rise on Cool CPI
  • Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy
  • 60-Year Mining Tax Battle: Supreme Court’s Final Word
  • Online Game Monitor: July 29-August 13, 2024
  • # 46 India Insight: Ethanol Price Increase, Torrent Pharma and JB Chemicals, Cochin Shipyard Dredger


Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rise on Cool CPI

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 extended its advance into a fifth straight day, the longest winning streak in more than month
  • Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is gearing up for a contested leadership election in September as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he will not seek re-election
  • Nike’s stock rose nearly 5% in after-hours trading amid speculation of activist involvement

Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

By Andrew Jackson

  • Gains for Micron on the potential for DDR5 price hikes should help lift 6871 Micronics after yesterdays excessive weakness.
  • More cheer for US home builders after Smith Douglas number beat, adding to the upside story for Sumi Forestry and Selkisui House.
  • Defence related plays should remain in the spotlight with Kishida replacement candidates Ishiba and Kono both ex-defence ministers.

60-Year Mining Tax Battle: Supreme Court’s Final Word

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Supreme Court ruled that States can levy cesses on mining activities, distinguishing it from Union’s authority over royalty.
  • Retrospective tax collection from 2005 could impose 1.5-2 lakh crore on the mining sector, heavily impacting co. like Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) and Coal India Ltd (COAL IN).
  • The ruling may exacerbate financial pressures on the mining industry, especially in high-tax states like Odisha and Jharkhand.

Online Game Monitor: July 29-August 13, 2024

By Stan Zhao

  • Tencent’s <LoLM> shows strong performance after anniversary event, reaching as high as No. 2 on the iOS Grossing Chart with strong player spending sentiment
  • NetEase’s <Justice Mobile> grossing rank continues to decline due to the game’s lifecycle, slightly lowering expectations. <Naraka: Bladepoint Mobile> revenue performance is stabilizing, with annual grossing expected around RMB 10bn
  • Bilibili’s <FGO> shows a strong revenue trend, currently in the top 20 on the iOS Grossing Chart, slightly raising expectations

# 46 India Insight: Ethanol Price Increase, Torrent Pharma and JB Chemicals, Cochin Shipyard Dredger

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Government Considers Ethanol Price Increase to Meet Blending 20% Targets
  • Torrent Pharma is seeking up to $3 billion to buy KKR’s 54% stake in JB Chemicals.
  • Cochin Shipyard will deliver a new dredger worth INR 800 crore to DCI by September 2025.

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Daily Brief Credit: Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd, SK Hynix, Vedanta Resources


Melco Resorts – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Melco Resorts’ (MLCO) Q2/24 results were soft, but in line with expectations. The company’s earnings improved sequentially in Q2, though the pace of its earnings recovery (relative to pre-pandemic levels) and debt reduction have continued to lag peers.

During H1/24, MLCO’s net gross debt was down by just 1% from FYE 2023. Hence, the company’s leverage remained weaker than peers, with Net Debt/LTM Adjusted Property EBITDA of 5.1x (vs. 3.9x for Wynn Macau, 2.5x for Sands China and an estimated 2.1x for MGM China).

Going forward, we expect MLCO to continue generating small positive FCF and deleverage gradually, with the extent of its FCF generation likely tempered by ongoing share repurchases.


Morning Views Asia: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd, SK Hynix, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: Hindustan Zinc OFS Early Look – Due for a Correction and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Hindustan Zinc OFS Early Look – Due for a Correction, Large Selling Pressure Looming
  • P N Gadgil Jewellers Pre-IPO – Strong Revenue Growth but Margin Worry Persists


Hindustan Zinc OFS Early Look – Due for a Correction, Large Selling Pressure Looming

By Clarence Chu

  • Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) is looking to raise US$760m from selling some stake in Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN).
  • Overall, while the deal would represent just 2.6% of the firm’s outstanding shares, the deal is a large one to digest at 41 days of the stock’s three month ADV.
  • In this note, we take an early look at the deal, and comment on the deal dynamics.

P N Gadgil Jewellers Pre-IPO – Strong Revenue Growth but Margin Worry Persists

By Akshat Shah

  • P N Gadgil Jewellers (1742652D IN) looking to raise up to US$132m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • P N Gadgil Jewellers (PNGJ) is an Indian organized jewellery player. Its product offerings include traditional as well as modern and functional jewellery designs, in gold, diamond, silver and platinum.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s historical performance.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024: Trade Reversed Is Tale of Two Hedges and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024: Trade Reversed Is Tale of Two Hedges, Time To Unwind
  • J Tower (4485) – Once Ambitious, Still High Growth, Sells Itself Low/Cheapish.
  • JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic
  • Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr Gold Miners Sep 24:  Mergers Mean Possible Up-And-Out DELETEs
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names
  • Piolax (5988 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder
  • BusinessOn Communication (138580 KS): SkyLake’s Delisting Offer
  • Midea A/H Listing – Getting Closer to the US$3bn+ Raising, Has a Narrow Window


Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024: Trade Reversed Is Tale of Two Hedges, Time To Unwind

By Travis Lundy

  • The theory is that stocks which are down hard FY-to-date by end-April end up being good sells because Australians will harvest their losses into end-June. 
  • The idea is then to buy those oversold names and hold them for 30-40 trading days. That has worked 10 out of the last 12 years hedged vs ASX200.
  • This year, the “sold-down” list is very heavily weighted to miners. They have continued to fall since end-June so it’s down. But hedged vs a basket of miners? It’s up.

J Tower (4485) – Once Ambitious, Still High Growth, Sells Itself Low/Cheapish.

By Travis Lundy

  • JTower (4485 JP) IPOed itself Dec-2019 at ¥1,600/share. An 8-bagger in a year, fell by half, doubled, fell 70%, then doubled, fell 35%, up 50%. That’s the first 3yrs.
  • Since then, the trend has been lower. The stock is down 80+% in 2 years, especially painful after an equity raise at just under ¥5,000 6 months ago.
  • But the stock today closed at ¥1,430, and the Tender Offer is at ¥3,600. A 150% premium. That’s big, but it may be “too low.” An interesting case.

JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

By Arun George

  • JTower (4485 JP) has recommended a tender offer from DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US) at JPY3,600, a 161.8% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,375 (13 August). 
  • Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light (compared to historical trading ranges and the recent placement) and opportunistically timed (the share price has fallen 61% since 9 May). 
  • Nevertheless, barring a spurt of activism, the offer should succeed as the required 40.7% minority acceptance rate is not onerous and should be comfortably met by Japanese cross-holders.    

Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr Gold Miners Sep 24:  Mergers Mean Possible Up-And-Out DELETEs

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
  • This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the index rebal event in September 2024.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes & A Few Close Names

By Brian Freitas

  • Couple of weeks from the start of the review period for the December rebalance of SET 50 Index, we see four potential index changes.
  • There are a few stocks that are close to the inclusion zone and there could be a reordering among the non-constituents as stock prices move around.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes since the start of the year with most of the outperformance coming over the last 6 weeks.

Piolax (5988 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

By Arun George

  • Murakami’s entities, City Index Eleventh and City Index Third, reported a 5.05% position in Piolax Inc (5988 JP). The purchases were from 11 June to 6 August over 60 days.
  • Murakami’s average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,286.61 per share, a 0.7% discount to the last close price.
  • Murakami’s disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Piolax is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.

BusinessOn Communication (138580 KS): SkyLake’s Delisting Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 25th July, SkyLake Equity Partners acquired a 46.9% stake from Praxis Capital Partners in BusinessOn Communication (138580 KS), Korea’s leading B2B SaaS company; plus 24.3% from BusinessOn’s management. 
  • SkyLake has now launched a Tender Offer for 28.94% of BusinessOn. The Tender offer price is ₩15,849/share.
  • Super clean deal. SkyLake will acquire all shares tendered. There is no minimum tendering % condition. 

Midea A/H Listing – Getting Closer to the US$3bn+ Raising, Has a Narrow Window

By Sumeet Singh

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) one of the world’s largest home appliance producers, aims to raise up to US$3bn in its H-share listing.
  • Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.
  • We have covered the company and deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the updates since then.

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Daily Brief Crypto: No Pain and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • No Pain, No Gain


No Pain, No Gain

By Delphi Digital

  • Survive the purge, seize the opportunity: Last week’s extreme market volatility presents exceptional forward-looking opportunities for those who remain resilient.
  • Liquidation waves: A path to equilibrium: Learn how major market disturbances like last week’s can create ripples that take time to settle, offering strategic consolidation points.
  • Unlocks and ETF flows: What’s next for crypto? Discover how upcoming token unlocks and recent ETF trends may shape the near-term outlook for key crypto assets.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: The Beat Ideas- Authum 2.0: A New Era in Financial Services! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas- Authum 2.0: A New Era in Financial Services!
  • Tencent (700 HK): 2Q24, Gross Margins of All Business Lines Improved Significantly
  • Appier (4180) | The Hidden Gem in AI Marketing
  • HD Hyundai: Updated NAV Analysis
  • Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers
  • Tencent 2Q: Recent Launch of DnF Mobile Helps Domestic Gaming Return to Growth
  • TSMC (2330-TT): Revisiting Previous Bullish Themes Following Outperformance
  • Shift Up: 2Q 2024 Results Analysis
  • [Earnings Review] Occidental Beats Q2 Estimates with Boosted Output and Stronger Realisations
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Negative Growth in 24H1 Seems Inevitable


The Beat Ideas- Authum 2.0: A New Era in Financial Services!

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Transformation of the company from Equity investment driven to Equity and stress business. 
  • Complete restructuring of Reliance Capital and Reliance Home Finance into Authum and Focus on ARC and stressed assets.
  • Recoveries in completely provided portfolios of Reliance Capital, Planned debt fundraise for further growth.

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q24, Gross Margins of All Business Lines Improved Significantly

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue increased by 8% YoY in 2Q24, lightly higher than 1Q24 and 4Q23.
  • The gross margins of all business lines Improved significantly YoY.
  • We set the upside at 35% and the price target at HK$506 for the end of 2025. Buy.

Appier (4180) | The Hidden Gem in AI Marketing

By Mark Chadwick

  • Appier achieved 32% YoY sales growth in Q2, driven by strong US market performance and balanced revenue from both new and existing customers.
  • The company’s EBITDA margin improved to 13%, reflecting strong operating leverage despite ongoing investments in growth initiatives.
  • Trading at a 2.9x EV/FY25 revenue multiple, Appier is undervalued relative to peers, with significant upside potential from sustained growth and strategic initiatives.

HD Hyundai: Updated NAV Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • According to our NAV analysis, it suggests a base case valuation of 122,473 won per share for HD Hyundai, representing a 50% upside from current levels.
  • The combined value of HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai Electric & Energy, and HD Hyundai Marine Solution is 11.4 trillion won.
  • We estimate HD Hyundai’s 73.85% stake in Hyundai Oilbank to be 7.0 trillion won. We also applied a 5x OP of its core business and a 50% holdco discount.

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. navigated the fiscal second quarter of 2024 with outcomes that reflected the broader economic challenges impacting the retail and real estate sectors.
  • In the quarter under review, the company reported a dip in both total sales and comparable store sales which fell slightly short of expectations.
  • This mirrored the continuing pressures from taut monetary policies adversely affecting housing market activities and discretionary spending on major projects.

Tencent 2Q: Recent Launch of DnF Mobile Helps Domestic Gaming Return to Growth

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 2Q2024 results today which beat consensus. Domestic gaming resumed growth driven by the successful launch of DnF Mobile which continues to dominate charts in China.
  • All three business segments saw improvement in margins driven by Tencent’s high-margin businesses incl. mini-programs, video accounts, short-videos, etc.
  • We expect continued recovery in Tencent’s earnings, however, remain cautious given slowdown in consumption spending and macroeconomic uncertainties.

TSMC (2330-TT): Revisiting Previous Bullish Themes Following Outperformance

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) has significantly outperformed this year, driven by a global AI-driven tailwind resulting in substantial revenue growth acceleration and a significant earnings upgrade cycle.
  • Record levels of FCF generation have supported dividend increases, and whilst future DPS expectations seem conservative, the current dividend yield suggests future increases have been priced in.
  • TSMC trades just above its 5-year historic average trading levels and at a premium to its key competitors, other smaller listed foundries, its main customers, and large suppliers.

Shift Up: 2Q 2024 Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 August, Shift Up (462870 KS) reported its 2Q 2024 results, which was the first earnings report post its IPO. 
  • Shift Up reported sales of 65.2 billion won (up 65.4% YoY and 19.5% below consensus) and OP of 45.1 billion won (up 49% YoY and 21.4% below consensus) in 2Q24. 
  • The company is preparing for a PC release of Stellar Blade in the near future to continue its strong popularity and it expects better results on PC than on console.

[Earnings Review] Occidental Beats Q2 Estimates with Boosted Output and Stronger Realisations

By Suhas Reddy

  • Occidental’s Q2 revenue grew 1.7% YoY but missed estimates by 1.7%. Net profit surged by 34.9% YoY and beat estimates by 32.5%.
  • Total production rose by 3.3% YoY led by robust growth in the Permian and Gulf of Mexico. Production touched its highest in four years.
  • Average crude oil realisations rose 8.6% YoY, and natural gas increased by 11.3%, while domestic gas realisations fell sharply by 60.3% YoY.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Negative Growth in 24H1 Seems Inevitable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • According to the management, the performance of 24H1 should be better than that of 21H1, but Fu Shou Yuan’s performance in 2024 full year may still fall short of expectations.
  • In the future, the development strategy of Fu Shou Yuan would rely more on endogenous growth. Without aggressive M&A, long-term revenue growth rate could fall to single digit.
  • Special dividends will continue in the future. However, one major risk for Fu Shou Yuan is policy risk. The bottom line is the demand for the funeral industry always exists.

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Daily Brief Macro: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Revisited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Revisited
  • CX Daily: Chinese Shippers’ Diverging Fortunes
  • Indonesia Economics: Even with Headline Stability, Watch for More Policy Uncertainty
  • [IO Weekly 2024/32] Chinese Economic Sentiment Sours, Driving Iron Ore Lower; Option Activity Surges
  • Fundamental Changes Reflected from Recent Market Turbulence
  • Taiwan: Rates to Buck Global Loosening as Growth Stays Robust and Inflation Too High
  • UK Services CPI Realigns With Trend
  • New Zealand Policy Rate 5.25% (consensus 5.5%) in Aug-24


Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Revisited

By Alex Ng

  • The inflationary implications of Modern Monetary theory have finally been exposed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic after 2022
  • The risks of inflation were underplayed due to prolonged disinflationary impulses stemming from decades of globalisation. Recent US practice of MMT could force the Fed to raise its inflation target.
  • Japan pursued an MMT framework since 2013, but the continuation of quantitative easing and arrival of rising inflation is undermining the yen. The Eurozone faces the same predicament as Japan.

CX Daily: Chinese Shippers’ Diverging Fortunes

By Caixin Global

  • Shipping / In Depth: Chinese shippers’ diverging fortunes 
  • Macao / Macao takes aim at currency exchange services for gamblers

  • Personnel / Securities watchdog official named head of Shenzhen Exchange


Indonesia Economics: Even with Headline Stability, Watch for More Policy Uncertainty

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Indonesia’s 2Q24 GDP continues the pattern of recent years of remarkably stable growth, but other data paint a more mixed picture when it comes to underlying demand.
  • Changes in demand conditions may tilt the growth-inflation tradeoffs in favour of earlier rate cuts by Bank Indonesia, but pressures on the rupiah may limit its scope for action.
  • Recent signs of mixed messaging and flip-flops in areas of fiscal policy, trade policy, and the new capital are signs that decision-making is being compromised by politicking

[IO Weekly 2024/32] Chinese Economic Sentiment Sours, Driving Iron Ore Lower; Option Activity Surges

By Pranay Yadav

  • Iron Ore Price Decline: Iron ore prices dropped 1.7% in Week 32, driven by reduced steel output and fading demand. Stimulus-driven rally failed to sustain.
  • Options Market Trends: Weekly options volume surged, with put volume increasing 106%, pushing the put/call ratio to 1.33, indicating bearish sentiment.
  • Implied Volatility Shifts: Implied volatility (IV) surged midweek, particularly for September contracts, reflecting increased market uncertainty; options skew narrowed to just 0.3% suggesting more expensive calls.

Fundamental Changes Reflected from Recent Market Turbulence

By Alex Ng

  • The recent market turbulence is partially due to a reduction in risky positions. The US economy is also slowing, while Eurozone data shows the recovery is not gaining momentum.
  • China data points to a H2 slowdown.  This will be a bumpier environment in H2 2024.
  • We see scope for a further correction of the S&P500 to 5000, with USDJPY down to 140.  Fed easing likely starts in September, supporting U.S. equities at lower levels. 

Taiwan: Rates to Buck Global Loosening as Growth Stays Robust and Inflation Too High

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • We expect a 12.5bp hike in the policy rate in Sep’24, as CPI inflation (2.52%YoY in Jul’24) remains well above the 2% target amid CBC concerns about overheated property markets. 
  • Real GDP grew 5.1%YoY in Q2CY24, following 6.6%YoY growth in Q1 (both faster than mainland China). Exports grew 10%YoY in Jan-Jul’24, and export orders growth is at a 2-year high.
  • The market’s trailing P/E ratio (23.56x) is well above its 20-year mean (19.84x). But we recommend a mild Overweight in Taiwan equities, with a focus on the largest tech stocks. 

UK Services CPI Realigns With Trend

By Phil Rush

  • UK inflation increased in July on household energy utility price base effects, but unusual downside news in services prices limited the move to 2.2% and 3.6% on the CPI and RPI.
  • The BoE erroneously extrapolated recent services strength, so a return to the downward trend would widen the gap in the coming months, but its predictive power is poor.
  • Slowing trends can aid the MPC to cut again in November but further headline rises and excessive wage pressures should encourage at least a longer pause afterwards.

New Zealand Policy Rate 5.25% (consensus 5.5%) in Aug-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The RBNZ unexpectedly reduced the OCR by 25 basis points to 5.25%, citing weakening domestic economic activity and a decline in inflationary pressures, contrasting with the economic consensus of no change.
  • The decision reflects a balance between maintaining restrictive monetary policy to ensure inflation remains anchored and responding to broader global trends of easing inflation and subdued economic growth.
  • Future interest rate decisions will be influenced by the pace at which domestic inflation pressures dissipate, the stability of inflation expectations, and the evolving global economic conditions.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Australia: Core Lithium Ltd, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024: Trade Reversed Is Tale of Two Hedges, Time To Unwind
  • [IO Weekly 2024/32] Chinese Economic Sentiment Sours, Driving Iron Ore Lower; Option Activity Surges


Tax-Loss Selling In Australia 2024: Trade Reversed Is Tale of Two Hedges, Time To Unwind

By Travis Lundy

  • The theory is that stocks which are down hard FY-to-date by end-April end up being good sells because Australians will harvest their losses into end-June. 
  • The idea is then to buy those oversold names and hold them for 30-40 trading days. That has worked 10 out of the last 12 years hedged vs ASX200.
  • This year, the “sold-down” list is very heavily weighted to miners. They have continued to fall since end-June so it’s down. But hedged vs a basket of miners? It’s up.

[IO Weekly 2024/32] Chinese Economic Sentiment Sours, Driving Iron Ore Lower; Option Activity Surges

By Pranay Yadav

  • Iron Ore Price Decline: Iron ore prices dropped 1.7% in Week 32, driven by reduced steel output and fading demand. Stimulus-driven rally failed to sustain.
  • Options Market Trends: Weekly options volume surged, with put volume increasing 106%, pushing the put/call ratio to 1.33, indicating bearish sentiment.
  • Implied Volatility Shifts: Implied volatility (IV) surged midweek, particularly for September contracts, reflecting increased market uncertainty; options skew narrowed to just 0.3% suggesting more expensive calls.

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