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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

May 01
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Ends Volatile April Higher on Tech Boost and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Ends Volatile April Higher on Tech Boost
  • #138 India Insight: HZL Eyes Potash, Reliance Quick Commerce Grows, Whirlpool Stake Sale
  • Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Go Risk-On Shrugging off Earlier SMCI Weakness
  • HSBC – BoCom Losses Not Yet Realized, Credit Metrics in HK and UK Are Worsening
  • Thematic Report: India Home-Services Market- Digital Disruption in ₹5 Trn TAM Market

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Ends Volatile April Higher on Tech Boost

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks rebounded Wednesday to close a volatile April, with the S&P 500 rising 0.15% and the Nasdaq finishing near flat after steep early losses
  • Microsoft beat earnings on strong cloud demand, and Meta delivered strong results with solid guidance despite advertising headwinds.
  • Tokyo Electron forecasts a 4% net profit rise to 566 billion yen for FY2026, driven by strong AI semiconductor equipment demand, with sales up 7% to 2,600 billion yen.

#138 India Insight: HZL Eyes Potash, Reliance Quick Commerce Grows, Whirlpool Stake Sale

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) , part of Vedanta group, plans to enter potash mining in Rajasthan, exploring lithium potential.
  • Reliance Retail scales up quick commerce with 2.4x growth, plans dark stores to enhance delivery coverage and speed.
  • Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) plans to sell 31% stake in India unit, attracting interest from private equity giants like Advent and Bain.

Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Go Risk-On Shrugging off Earlier SMCI Weakness

By Andrew Jackson

  • SOX rallied +4% off its lows with a host of positive earnings including Qorvo, Western Digital and Seagate.
  • Bigger than expected capex plans for Meta positive for Japan SPE to start.
  • Tokyo Electron numbers yesterday were inline but show less reliance on China sales.

HSBC – BoCom Losses Not Yet Realized, Credit Metrics in HK and UK Are Worsening

By Daniel Tabbush

  • What matters with HSBC results is really not the bottom line, the management view or the constant currency comparatives, but rather the view on specific regions.
  • Still there is concern HSBC has not yet realized losses on BoCom, it is not marked to market; there will be an impairment of USD1.2-1.6bn from dilution
  • HK shows credit costs rising from USD233m to USD320m YoY in 1Q25 and UK shows credit costs rising from USD55m to USD169m YoY, both are key to HSBC

Thematic Report: India Home-Services Market- Digital Disruption in ₹5 Trn TAM Market

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India’s home-services spend touched INR 4.99–5.07 trn in CY 2024 and is set to reach INR 8.22–8.35 trn by CY 2029 (10-11 % CAGR).
  • Online full-stack GMV is only INR 40–42 bn (0.8 % of spend) today yet grows 20-22 % CAGR to INR 105-110 bn by CY 2029.
  • Formalisation, gig-supply depth and tech-led standardisation give platforms head-room to triple GMV and double margins within five years while still capturing <2 % of TAM.

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May 01
0

Daily Brief ESG: A Guide May Be Offered to Disclose MTPs that Focus More on Strategy Rather than Matching Numbers and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • A Guide May Be Offered to Disclose MTPs that Focus More on Strategy Rather than Matching Numbers

A Guide May Be Offered to Disclose MTPs that Focus More on Strategy Rather than Matching Numbers

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s progress that more companies are including ROE and ROIC as KPIs in mid-term management plans. On the other hand, it’s true that many disclosures are misaligned with investors’ perspectives.
  • As a result of not taking action on problem businesses, it’s often the case that deteriorating environment increases losses of the business, leading to revision of the “medium-term management plan.”
  • Investors are more likely to portray corporate value if a company provides measures for problem solving and growth, and reliable execution, rather than goals that are uncertain to be achieved.

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May 01
0

Daily Brief ECM: DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways
  • DN Solutions Cancels IPO
  • Hanwha Aero Capital Raise: Latest Timeline, Pricing Details, and Key Trading Factors
  • Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Hanwha Aerospace Rights Offering – Third Time Is a Charm?
  • Green Tea Group Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Still Being Driven Purely by Store Expansion
  • Chery Auto Pre-IPO – The Positives – Very Strong Earnings Growth

DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways

By Sanghyun Park

  • Book built weak, even under ₩65,000. Both local and foreign demand was super soft. Company floated printing at the bottom, but floor didn’t hold. Now, the deal is officially dead.
  • The real overhang was valuation; the IPO priced too high for the growth story. Without a strong momentum trade, DN Solutions couldn’t ride the wave, and sentiment soured fast.
  • They’re not waiting too long — likely aiming for a H2 comeback. KRX might skip the full review, and they may focus on domestic investors this time without an OC.

DN Solutions Cancels IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • DN Solutions cancelled its IPO today due to low demand. There were not enough institutional investors willing to put their hard earned capital into this IPO. 
  • The IPO price range was between 65,000 won and 89,700 won with market cap ranging from 4.1 trillion won to 5.7 trillion won.
  • The cancellation of the IPO for DN Solutions is also likely to have a negative impact on DN Automotive which is up 23% in the past one year. 

Hanwha Aero Capital Raise: Latest Timeline, Pricing Details, and Key Trading Factors

By Sanghyun Park

  • The first pricing is May 20, ex-rights on May 22, and rights trading runs June 16-20. Final pricing is June 26, with subscription July 1, and shares trade July 21.
  • The FSS is unlikely to make this a political issue, especially with Hanwha’s detailed amended filing. The rights offering should go ahead, so we’re prepping for that in trading.
  • It’s similar to SDI, focusing on stock rights to lower entry cost. The offering size dropped 30%, but defense sector volatility and intense short action could still cause price swings.

Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Prestige Hospitality Ventures Ltd (1831338D IN) (PHVL) is looking to raise around US$317m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JM Fin, CLSA, JPM, Kotak.
  • PHVL is part of the Prestige Group. It is a hospitality asset owner and developer focused on luxury, upper upscale, and upper midscale properties in India.
  • As of Dec 24, PHVL’s portfolio includes seven operating hospitality assets with a total of 1,445 keys, including one property under renovation with 190 keys.

Hanwha Aerospace Rights Offering – Third Time Is a Charm?

By Douglas Kim

  • Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) has once again provided a revised rights offering prospectus following another request from the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS).
  • Rights offering amount remains the same at 2.3 trillion won. Expected rights offering price is 539,000 won which is subject to change. New shares listing date is 21 July 2025.
  • Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 5.5 trillion won (14.3% better than consensus) and operating profit of 560.8 billion won (11.7% better than consensus) in 1Q 2025. 

Green Tea Group Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Still Being Driven Purely by Store Expansion

By Troy Wong

  • Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Citi and CMBI.
  • GTG is a leading Casual Chinese restaurant chain operator in Mainland China, its revenue growth has been driven mainly via rapid store expansion.
  • Persistently negative SSSG post-COVID could signal potential cannibalization or a negative impact from a shift in consumer spending behavior.

Chery Auto Pre-IPO – The Positives – Very Strong Earnings Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • Chery Automobile is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Chery Auto is a Chinese passenger vehicle company which designs, develops, manufactures and sells passenger vehicles, including internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles, both domestically and overseas.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

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May 01
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Gensol Engineering Scandal: Our AI System Saw This Coming and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Gensol Engineering Scandal: Our AI System Saw This Coming
  • Anicom (8715 JP)
  • Seasonal Play: FDC Ltd- Electral’s Summer Surge and Expanding into Growing Categories
  • SDA: SunCar reports 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. The company continues to secure multiple business agreements and partnerships.
  • WRKR Ltd – Building the platform for strong revenue growth
  • Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC
  • Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. Q4 FY25 Update: Robust Growth Driven by T&D Expansion
  • MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs
  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Guidance Revised Upward for FY25 Driven by North America
  • Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) – Indonesia’s Leading Logistics and Mobility Ecosystem

Gensol Engineering Scandal: Our AI System Saw This Coming

By Mark Jolley

  • Indian regulator barred Gensol Engineering’s founders for alleged fund diversion, causing a 90% stock plunge
  • Unusual growth and poor governance were flagged in Gensol’s accounts by Transparently’s AI system
  • Transparently’s “F” risk rating would have likely steered investors away from Gensol.

Anicom (8715 JP)

By Michael Fritzell

  • Japanese pet insurance company with 40-50% market share thanks to its OTC settlement system and a network of pet shop/veterinary clinic partners
  • The stock trades at around 13x current-year earnings, a modest multiple given the secular growth that’s ahead of it. The pet/human population ratio is low. Pet insurance is still unusual.
  • Well-Regarded investor Hikari Tsushin just took a 5.2% position in the company, highlighting the value in the company at the current 1.5x book. 

Seasonal Play: FDC Ltd- Electral’s Summer Surge and Expanding into Growing Categories

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • FDC Limited is a pioneer in India’s pharmaceutical landscape, especially in Oral Rehydration Salts (ORS) and specialized formulations.
  • The company’s flagship brand, Electral, continues to be a major revenue contributor, despite margin pressures from regulatory price caps.
  • FDC’s strategic capex in ophthalmic, ear, and nasal drops business, coupled with its domestic and international presence, positions it strongly for sustained growth.

SDA: SunCar reports 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. The company continues to secure multiple business agreements and partnerships.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • SunCar Technology Group ((NASDAQ: SDA) is a leading Chinese cloud-based provider of digital enterprise auto services and auto eInsurance services in China.
  • The company offers one-stop, fully digital, on-demand automotive service systems to help enterprise clients build up their customer base and serve their end customers (auto owners).
  • The company has grown revenues rapidly in recent years, which we expect to continue in the near-to-midterm.

WRKR Ltd – Building the platform for strong revenue growth

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
  • WRK’s Q3 FY25 activities report demonstrates a continued balance of cost management (up just 3% against Q3 FY24) against lumpy cash receipts (down 6% against Q3 FY24 but up 39% on Q2 FY25) amidst continued milestone/project work, which should drive revenue in FY26.
  • This quarter saw the receipt of a $328k R&D tax credit but also a record capitalised IP spend of $985k as new product development and systems integration continues.

Mediatek 1Q25 6% Beat, Growth Accelerating in 2Q, Large Revenue Opportunity for Data Center ASIC

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Mediatek beats in 1Q, good guidance for 2Q, but close to Consensus. Several positives in 2025: flagship smartphone gains, smartphone AI upgrades, strong WiFi and Connectivity growth, progress in Auto.
  • How large is the “sizable revenue” opportunity of data center custom ASICs from 2026? Management sounds increasingly positive / confident. The stock valuations reflect this.
  • The stock trades at 18.5x 2025 EPS, 15.5x 2026 EPS, not extravagant but on the high-end. If you have the stock, keep it. If you don’t, TSMC looks more interesting.  

Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. Q4 FY25 Update: Robust Growth Driven by T&D Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Energy Solutions (ADANIT IN)’s Q4 FY25 PAT jumped 87% YoY to INR 714 crore, driven by strong transmission execution and distribution growth.
  • The company’s record order book of INR 59,936 crore and aggressive smart metering ramp-up signal sustained growth ahead.
  • AESL is strengthening its position across transmission, distribution, and metering, reinforcing its multi-year growth visibility.

MediaTek 1Q25 Earnings: AI Momentum Drives Strength, But 2H Visibility Remains Murky Due to Tariffs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • MediaTek beat 1Q25 EPS expectations as Smart Edge and mobile segments delivered strong sequential growth; flagship SoC traction supports improved ASP mix.
  • AI remains central to strategy: NVIDIA partnership progressing — NT$1bn AI ASIC revenue targeted for 2026.
  • Tariff-Driven macro caution clouds 2H outlook, but we maintain Structural Long view — AI, auto, and premium mobile SoCs drive long-term opportunity.

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Guidance Revised Upward for FY25 Driven by North America

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) revised revenue guidance for FY25 to ¥399B from previous ¥381B. New guidance represents 27% YoY growth.
  • This comes on the back of higher than expected sales in North American segment, which contributed 61% sales in 9MFY25.
  • Operating profit guidance have been revised to ¥43.2B from ¥30B on controlled cost and higher sales.

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) – Indonesia’s Leading Logistics and Mobility Ecosystem

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Adi Sarana Armada has seen its end-to-end logistics ecosystem under Cargoshare take over as its biggest revenue driver, with car rentals, vehicle auction, and used cars also showing solid growth.  
  • All divisions booked revenue growth, with the auction business seeing the strongest performance, but the logistics saw the biggest turnaround, booking a profit in FY2024 versus a loss in FY2023. 
  • Cargoshare is increasingly deploying solutions-based logistics, especially for FMCG companies, which are increasingly outsourcing logistics. ASSA’s mobility ecosystem continues to thrive through synergies, with captive car supply from ASSA Rent. 

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May 01
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Meituan
  • US equity rose for the sixth consecutive day, the best streak since March 2022, as it continued to look past weak consumer confidence and labour data as well as no signs of an easing in the tariff situation .
  • The S&P 500 was up by 0.6%, and the Nasdaq by 0.5%. US Treasury yields shrank 3-5 bps across the curve. The biggest move was probably a 6.7% correction in steel prices (HRC), following a YTD spike.

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May 01
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 May Scheme Vote
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon
  • Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo
  • Woongjin Is Buying Preed Life (Largest Funeral Service Company in Korea) Using LBO

Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Last Friday during market hours, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced earnings, guidance, its MTMP progress update, and a buyback. 
  • Earnings were OK, all things considered. Guidance was disappointing, but tariff impact is real. The buyback headlines are huge (17%); reality is about half that given the stock price.
  • If they execute via TN-3 near-term, it just sets up the next one, but they may do 2/3 TN=3 and 1/3 market. There may be Toyota Industries factors involved.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 May Scheme Vote

By Arun George

  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)’s IFA opines that the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 23 May. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders’ rejection) and a headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. The vote risk is low. At the current price and for a June 11 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/44.0%. 

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

By David Blennerhassett

  • For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including Toyota Industries (6201 JP)‘s potential Offer.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.
  • The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.
  • While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.
  • Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.

Woongjin Is Buying Preed Life (Largest Funeral Service Company in Korea) Using LBO

By Douglas Kim

  • Woongjin Co Ltd (016880 KS) (through its subsidiary WJ Life Holdings) is buying the controlling interest in Preed Life (largest funeral service company in Korea) using LBO (leveraged buyout).
  • Preed Life is the number one player in the funeral service provider industry in Korea. It has excellent financials and it has done an excellent job of consolidating this industry.
  • All in all, we like this acquisition of Preed Life by Woongjin using LBO. Preed Life has stable cash flow generation and strong growth in sales and profits.

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May 01
0

Daily Brief Macro: BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (April 29) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (April 29)
  • EA: GDP Stimulated Faster Than Supply
  • Actinver Research
  • CX Daily: Chinese EV-Makers Lured by Thai Perks Face Reality Check
  • Colombia: 25bp Rate Cut To 9.25% (Consensus 9.5%) in Apr-25
  • Thailand: 25bp Rate Cut To 1.75% (Consensus 1.75%) in Apr-25

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (April 29)

By David Mudd

  • The HSI has pulled back below its long term averages however market breadth remains high with strong RSI and MACD technical indicators.
  • Mainland buying through the Southbound Connect platform reached a historical high after the tariff announcement on April 2nd. 
  • Healthcare and Telecom sector have been able to maintain strength as the market pulled back.

EA: GDP Stimulated Faster Than Supply

By Phil Rush

  • Activity growth in Q1 shouldn’t be dismissed as it helps signal the economy’s momentum and effective monetary conditions that trade shocks will fall on top of in the euro area.
  • GDP growth exceeded expectations again by increasing to 0.35% q-o-q. Productivity’s poor post-pandemic performance helps GDP drive the ongoing fall in unemployment.
  • Supply’s trend seems to have softened despite demand’s improving, raising excesses and the risk that ECB monetary policy was already stimulative before the trade shock.

Actinver Research

By Actinver

  • Bimbo reported sales growth of 10.8% YoY, in line with our estimates.
  • Sales were supported by FX tailwinds –as sales in local currency contracted 0.3% YoY–, positive volumes and recent acquisitions.
  • Excluding FX tailwinds, sales in North America underperformed with an almost 5% YoY contraction, offsetting positive figures of other regions but slightly positive vs our more cautious estimates.

CX Daily: Chinese EV-Makers Lured by Thai Perks Face Reality Check

By Caixin Global

  • TOP STORY EVs / In Depth: Chinese EV-makers lured by Thai perks face reality check
  • IMF /China renews calls for IMF quota reform to boost the voice of emerging markets
  • Social security /Beijing should bolster social security to boost consumption, researchers say

Colombia: 25bp Rate Cut To 9.25% (Consensus 9.5%) in Apr-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • Banco de la República unanimously cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 9.25%, surprising consensus expectations for no change and breaking a recent streak of unexpected holds.
  • Inflation resumed its downward path, with core and headline figures easing and market-based expectations declining, supporting a measured policy loosening stance.
  • While domestic demand remains resilient and growth forecasts have been upgraded, external financing conditions and fiscal uncertainty continue to pose constraints on the pace of further easing.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Thailand: 25bp Rate Cut To 1.75% (Consensus 1.75%) in Apr-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Bank of Thailand cut the policy rate by 25bps to 1.75%, in line with market expectations, in response to increasing downside risks from global trade tensions and weaker domestic growth prospects.
  • The central bank projects that Thai GDP growth could slow to between 1.3% and 2.0% in 2025, depending on tariff scenarios, while headline inflation falls below the target range, reflecting persistent disinflationary pressures.
  • Future rate decisions will depend on global trade developments, domestic credit conditions, and the inflation trajectory, with monetary policy likely to remain accommodative amid heightened external uncertainty.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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May 01
0

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Hanwha Aerospace, Horizon Robotics, Samsung SDI, Aisin , Soundwill Holdings, DN Solutions, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Green Tea Group, Aviva and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
  • FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
  • Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity
  • Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 May Scheme Vote
  • DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End Apr 2025 Ranks
  • Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Aviva’s £3.7B Acquisition: Key Index Changes

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP). 
  • The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies. 
  • ¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

By Brian Freitas

  • The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
  • We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
  • The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
  • If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
  • Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.

Aisin (7259) – Executing the Capital Policy Side of Its MTMP – Big ¥120bn (8.8%) Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Last Friday during market hours, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced earnings, guidance, its MTMP progress update, and a buyback. 
  • Earnings were OK, all things considered. Guidance was disappointing, but tariff impact is real. The buyback headlines are huge (17%); reality is about half that given the stock price.
  • If they execute via TN-3 near-term, it just sets up the next one, but they may do 2/3 TN=3 and 1/3 market. There may be Toyota Industries factors involved.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 May Scheme Vote

By Arun George

  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)’s IFA opines that the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 23 May. 
  • Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders’ rejection) and a headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
  • The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. The vote risk is low. At the current price and for a June 11 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/44.0%. 

DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways

By Sanghyun Park

  • Book built weak, even under ₩65,000. Both local and foreign demand was super soft. Company floated printing at the bottom, but floor didn’t hold. Now, the deal is officially dead.
  • The real overhang was valuation; the IPO priced too high for the growth story. Without a strong momentum trade, DN Solutions couldn’t ride the wave, and sentiment soured fast.
  • They’re not waiting too long — likely aiming for a H2 comeback. KRX might skip the full review, and they may focus on domestic investors this time without an OC.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End Apr 2025 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at the rankings of ~45 potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-April 2025.

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it. 
  • The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.
  • The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average

Aviva’s £3.7B Acquisition: Key Index Changes

By Harry Kalfas

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May 01
0

Daily Brief Australia: WRKR and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • WRKR Ltd – Building the platform for strong revenue growth

WRKR Ltd – Building the platform for strong revenue growth

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
  • WRK’s Q3 FY25 activities report demonstrates a continued balance of cost management (up just 3% against Q3 FY24) against lumpy cash receipts (down 6% against Q3 FY24 but up 39% on Q2 FY25) amidst continued milestone/project work, which should drive revenue in FY26.
  • This quarter saw the receipt of a $328k R&D tax credit but also a record capitalised IP spend of $985k as new product development and systems integration continues.

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May 01
0

Daily Brief South Korea: DN Solutions, Hanwha Aerospace, Woongjin Co Ltd, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Hanmi Pharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways
  • DN Solutions Cancels IPO
  • Hanwha Aero Capital Raise: Latest Timeline, Pricing Details, and Key Trading Factors
  • Hanwha Aerospace Rights Offering – Third Time Is a Charm?
  • Woongjin Is Buying Preed Life (Largest Funeral Service Company in Korea) Using LBO
  • Samsung 1Q25: Already Reported Was Decent, 2Q / 2H Outlook Uninspiring. The Stock Will Remain Cheap
  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Export Drives 1Q25 Performance; China Business Is Recovering

DN Solutions IPO Officially Withdrawn: Background and Key Takeaways

By Sanghyun Park

  • Book built weak, even under ₩65,000. Both local and foreign demand was super soft. Company floated printing at the bottom, but floor didn’t hold. Now, the deal is officially dead.
  • The real overhang was valuation; the IPO priced too high for the growth story. Without a strong momentum trade, DN Solutions couldn’t ride the wave, and sentiment soured fast.
  • They’re not waiting too long — likely aiming for a H2 comeback. KRX might skip the full review, and they may focus on domestic investors this time without an OC.

DN Solutions Cancels IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • DN Solutions cancelled its IPO today due to low demand. There were not enough institutional investors willing to put their hard earned capital into this IPO. 
  • The IPO price range was between 65,000 won and 89,700 won with market cap ranging from 4.1 trillion won to 5.7 trillion won.
  • The cancellation of the IPO for DN Solutions is also likely to have a negative impact on DN Automotive which is up 23% in the past one year. 

Hanwha Aero Capital Raise: Latest Timeline, Pricing Details, and Key Trading Factors

By Sanghyun Park

  • The first pricing is May 20, ex-rights on May 22, and rights trading runs June 16-20. Final pricing is June 26, with subscription July 1, and shares trade July 21.
  • The FSS is unlikely to make this a political issue, especially with Hanwha’s detailed amended filing. The rights offering should go ahead, so we’re prepping for that in trading.
  • It’s similar to SDI, focusing on stock rights to lower entry cost. The offering size dropped 30%, but defense sector volatility and intense short action could still cause price swings.

Hanwha Aerospace Rights Offering – Third Time Is a Charm?

By Douglas Kim

  • Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) has once again provided a revised rights offering prospectus following another request from the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS).
  • Rights offering amount remains the same at 2.3 trillion won. Expected rights offering price is 539,000 won which is subject to change. New shares listing date is 21 July 2025.
  • Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 5.5 trillion won (14.3% better than consensus) and operating profit of 560.8 billion won (11.7% better than consensus) in 1Q 2025. 

Woongjin Is Buying Preed Life (Largest Funeral Service Company in Korea) Using LBO

By Douglas Kim

  • Woongjin Co Ltd (016880 KS) (through its subsidiary WJ Life Holdings) is buying the controlling interest in Preed Life (largest funeral service company in Korea) using LBO (leveraged buyout).
  • Preed Life is the number one player in the funeral service provider industry in Korea. It has excellent financials and it has done an excellent job of consolidating this industry.
  • All in all, we like this acquisition of Preed Life by Woongjin using LBO. Preed Life has stable cash flow generation and strong growth in sales and profits.

Samsung 1Q25: Already Reported Was Decent, 2Q / 2H Outlook Uninspiring. The Stock Will Remain Cheap

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) already released 1Q25 data, we knew it was a decent quarter on good Smartphone sales. What we didn’t know is how bad Memory was. 
  • Memory revenues declined sharply -17% QoQ on poor 4.4% OP margins: loss of HBM 2/3 revenues (China ban), no HBM3E, ASP pressure for Commodity DRAM and NAND 
  • Smartphone is seasonally down in 2Q and HBM3E will start very slowly. A small upside possible on pre-tariff demand but the bigger negative remains Samsung low exposure to AI growth.

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Export Drives 1Q25 Performance; China Business Is Recovering

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) recorded 7% YoY growth in standalone revenue in 1Q25, driven by 47% YoY jump in export revenue to KRW68B due to increased clinical supply to Merck.
  • Despite high base effect caused by respiratory outbreak in China, revenue and operating profit of Beijing Hanmi jumped 29% and 168%, QoQ, respectively, indicating continuous business recovery.
  • Hanmi Pharm is expected to launch next-generation low dose triple antihypertensive, Amosartan-L in 2H25. The company expects Amosartan-L to replicate the success of dual combo, Rosuzet.

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