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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief India: Ola Electric, CMS Info Systems Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Ola Electric IPO – RHD Updates: Strong Improvement in Financials
  • Slower E2Wheeler Sales with Lower Incentives: Ola Makes Lemonade when Market Throws Lemons
  • CMS Info Systems- Forensic Analysis


Ola Electric IPO – RHD Updates: Strong Improvement in Financials

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Ola Electric is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with both technology and manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components (including battery packs, motors and vehicle frames).
  • The company’s much awaited IPO is opening for subscription on Friday, and this insight focuses on new data points from the company’s latest Red Herring document (RHD).
  • Our analysis shows that the company’s top line has continued to expand driven by volume while there has been significant reduction in operating losses in FY03/2024.

Slower E2Wheeler Sales with Lower Incentives: Ola Makes Lemonade when Market Throws Lemons

By Devi Subhakesan

  • India’s electric 2-wheeler sales nosedived after March 2024 as the government reduced incentives.
  • The price gap between electric 2-wheelers and their ICE counterparts has widened significantly with lower incentives.
  • Despite the overall slowdown, Ola Electric (1700674D IN) ‘s steep market share rise highlights its product prowess, competitive pricing capabilities, and strong brand.

CMS Info Systems- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • CMS Info Systems Ltd (CMSINFO IN) is the market leader in the Indian cash management and managed services industry. 
  • The company has shown good growth in recent years, and this has mostly come from the managed services and card market.
  • Among major forensic takeaways, the company has been taking continuous hit on its debtors which undermines the growth quality. Cautious must also be given to payables, depreciation rate and ESOPs.

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Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, Samsonite, Advanced Micro Devices, Shell PLC, A10 Networks, Ethereum, Liberty Latin America , Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A, Talen Energy , Trimas Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Nvidia’s China Dominance in AI Accelerator Has Serious Deficiencies
  • Rome Capital’s Alex Feng and Jason Quan making the case for Samsonite $1910.HK
  • AMD. Playing The Long Game
  • [Earnings Preview] Bleeding Refining Margins & Lower Gas Prices to Eat into Shell’s Earnings
  • ATEN: Volatility of the Spending Pattern
  • Crypto Portfolio: Trading U.S. Ethereum ETFs
  • Liberty Costa Rica – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • AKA: 2Q Preview: Getting Ready for the Main Course; Reiterate Buy, $25 PT
  • TLN: PJM Results Affirm Attractive Value
  • TRS: Lack of Trifecta a Drag


Nvidia’s China Dominance in AI Accelerator Has Serious Deficiencies

By Robert McKay

  • Nvidia’s H20 and upcoming B20 were launched to comply with China export controls, and have remained successful due to deficiencies and supply issues for Huawei’s Ascend AI accelerators.
  • However, Nvidia’s China success will be short-lived due to increasing LLM compute requirements and no method for it to offer a more performance dense offering due to export controls.
  • Not only will Huawei’s upcoming Ascend AI accelerator mitigate this issue, but it will likely also aim to address some of the other deficiencies of the Ascend platform too.

Rome Capital’s Alex Feng and Jason Quan making the case for Samsonite $1910.HK

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Samsonite is a global luggage leader with three major brands: Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister
  • Despite challenges during COVID, Samsonite has successfully executed a turnaround by closing stores and improving sales and margins
  • The stock is undervalued in Hong Kong, with plans for a secondary US or European listing in the near future, potentially offering a 100% upside opportunity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


AMD. Playing The Long Game

By William Keating

  • Q224 revenues of $5.8 billion, +5.5% QoQ, +9% YoY and $100 million above the guided midpoint
  • AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $6.7 billion at the midpoint, up 15% QoQ and about the same YoY.
  • AMD shares are up 9% in premarket trading, hardly the response one expected from a good but not amazing report. But why?

[Earnings Preview] Bleeding Refining Margins & Lower Gas Prices to Eat into Shell’s Earnings

By Suhas Reddy

  • Shell forecasts a decline in upstream production, gas price realisations, and refining margins. Its QoQ Revenue & EPS are expected to drop 4.3% and 21.7%, respectively.
  • Shell anticipates Q2 post-tax impairments of USD 1.5 to USD 2 billion due to halting a biofuels plant in Rotterdam and divesting its Singapore refinery.
  • On a brighter note, Shell anticipates higher chemical margins, increased marketing sales volume, and improved refinery utilisation rates in Q2.

ATEN: Volatility of the Spending Pattern

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN reported Q2 results with greater success in winning enterprise orders while North American service providers limited their spending. 
  • Over the past year, ATEN has shifted more of its sales and marketing effort to winning enterprise customers, which should have more of a meaningful benefit to recurring revenue. 
  • ATEN reported revenue of $60.1 million compared to our forecast of $62.7 million. The second quarter results were lower than first quarter numbers, which is rare to see for ATEN.

Crypto Portfolio: Trading U.S. Ethereum ETFs

By Mads Eberhardt

  • We are trading the newly launched U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs.We have decided to allocate ten percentage points of our Crypto Portfolio from our Bitcoin holdings to purchase more Ether for a short-term trade.
  • We are buying Ethereum (ETH) at $3,315.18 and selling part of our Bitcoin (BTC) position at $66,203.95.
  • This trade will be reflected on the Crypto Portfolio page later today.

Liberty Costa Rica – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Liberty Costa Rica’s ESG as “Adequate”. The score mirrors our assessment of parent Liberty Latin America (LLA), which discloses ESG-related information on a consolidated basis, without meaningful details on the bond-issuing credit pools that we cover (C&W Communications and Liberty Puerto Rico). 

We assess LLA’s Social and Governance pillars as “Strong” and “Adequate”, respectively, offsetting the “Weak” Environmental score. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 


AKA: 2Q Preview: Getting Ready for the Main Course; Reiterate Buy, $25 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $25 price target and projections for a.k.a. Brands with the company announcing 2Q24 (June) results after the close on Wednesday.
  • While 2Q is not a highly crucial period for the company, we believe management will be able to point to material progress on multiple fronts, from continued solid top line growth at Princess Polly, Culture Kings setting up for the shift to the “test and repeat” model and adding more exclusives to the mix, and Petal & Pup leveraging strong demand for dresses and new digital marketplace relationships.
  • Further, we believe a.k.a. Brands is on track to open three new Princess Polly stores in 3Q24, with more on track for 2025.

TLN: PJM Results Affirm Attractive Value

By Hamed Khorsand

  • PJM published the Base Residual Auction results for the 2025-26 planning year that were the highest on record. PJM is the primary region TLN serves.
  • TLN announced participation in the auction and cleared 6,820 megawatts of electricity at the auction price of $269.92 per megawatt. 
  • TLN anticipates generating approximately $670 million in capacity revenue during the auction year. This compares to approximately $160 million run rate TLN had been reporting capacity revenue in recent quarters.

TRS: Lack of Trifecta a Drag

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TRS experienced a continuation of sales growing within its packaging and aerospace segments. TRS’s specialty products segment remains a laggard to the rest of the business with demand eroding. 
  • The recovery within the packaging business should have been the main highlight of TRS’s Q2. However, the weakness within specialty products resulted in TRS missing our estimates for the quarter.
  • We are updating our full year estimates after TRS lowered its adjusted EPS and sales guidance. 

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Daily Brief Japan: Ryohin Keikaku, Sun Corp, BayCurrent Consulting , Resona Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Daiichi Sankyo, Nihon Chouzai, Arealink Co Ltd, Strike and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions – Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s
  • True Wind Raises Partial Offer for Sun Corp Further, Leaving an Interesting Back End
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed
  • Sun Corporation (6736 JP): Third’s Time a Charm for True Wind’s Final Offer
  • Japanese Big-Cap Banks – Rates Story Takes Centre Stage, Along with Banks’ JGB Exposure
  • English Language Disclosure Will Raise Investment of Overseas Investors and Lead to Higher Valuation
  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Starts FY25 on Firm Note; Enhertu Flying Higher Highs; Guidance Reaffirmed
  • Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Arealink Co Ltd (8914 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
  • Strike (6196 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions – Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.
  • The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.
  • The Nikkei Index Team announced Fast Retailing (9983 JP) would be capped. I didn’t expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.

True Wind Raises Partial Offer for Sun Corp Further, Leaving an Interesting Back End

By Travis Lundy

  • On 10 June, Sun Corp subsidiary Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)‘s SPAC sponsor True Wind Capital launched a Tender Offer for 19% of SunCorp at a premium but discount to NAV.
  • The price was too low. CLBT shares rose. They lifted the TOB price by 8% to ¥4750. Still too low. It was trading there. Now they have lifted to ¥5500.
  • Now a 49% premium to undisturbed, 29.4% premium to all-time high prior to the first tender. Changes in terms means this could get done. More bullish than it looks.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. 
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.

Sun Corporation (6736 JP): Third’s Time a Charm for True Wind’s Final Offer

By Arun George

  • True Wind has increased its partial offer for Sun Corp (6736 JP) to JPY5,500 and materially lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 3.3m to 1.1m.  
  • True Wind’s previous two offers were a non-starter due to an unattractive price and an onerous minimum acceptance threshold. The final offer addresses both these issues. 
  • The offer will succeed due to the low minimum acceptance threshold and the 25% price uplift vs. the 19% value increase in the Cellebrite stake (since the offer announcement).

Japanese Big-Cap Banks – Rates Story Takes Centre Stage, Along with Banks’ JGB Exposure

By Victor Galliano

  • The Bank of Japan has raised its short-term interest rate to 0.25% from 0.1% ahead of the core of consensus expectations, and BoJ plans to pare back purchases of JGBs
  • We focus on those big-cap Japanese banks that are well geared into higher domestic rates through loan books and BoJ deposits, that also have lesser exposure to rising JGB yields
  • We stay broadly positive on Japanese bank shares, despite their performance; we add Chiba to the buy list of Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia, whilst keeping Kyoto as a sell

English Language Disclosure Will Raise Investment of Overseas Investors and Lead to Higher Valuation

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The issue of the discrepancy between disclosure documents in English highly remanded by overseas investors and actual disclosures in English by companies has not been resolved.
  • Companies with the highest English language disclosure scores had superior ROE, valuation, market capitalization and foreign ownership, and corporate governance. Companies with the lowest English disclosure scores showed the opposite.
  • Through overseas investor engagement, companies are likely to improve its corporate governance practices and has actually taken actions that have led to improved capital profitability.

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Starts FY25 on Firm Note; Enhertu Flying Higher Highs; Guidance Reaffirmed

By Tina Banerjee

  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) announced better-than-expected Q1FY25 result, with all key parameters exceeding expectation. Q1 revenue increased 24% to ¥436B, mainly driven by 59% growth in Enhertu sales to ¥130B.
  • For its approved indications, Enhertu maintained #1 market share for new patients in U.S. The drug is expected to have blockbuster status in both US and Europe this year.
  • Despite a good progress in Q1FY25, especially on profitability front, Daiichi Sankyo has reaffirmed FY25 guidance. Better-than-anticipated Enhertu revenue and Fx should lead to guidance revision later this year.

Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales reached JPY86.4bn (+5.6% YoY), operating loss was JPY236mn, recurring profit was JPY85mn, net loss was JPY140mn.
  • Sales were JPY76.6bn (+6.0% YoY), operating profit was JPY1.7bn (-40.5% YoY), 7 new pharmacies opened, 2 closed.
  • Sales were JPY9.9bn (-5.6% YoY), operating loss was JPY461mn, 492 products offered, 47.6% in-house manufactured products.

Arealink Co Ltd (8914 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue: JPY12.9bn (+15.4% YoY), Gross profit: JPY4.4bn (+12.2% YoY), Operating profit: JPY2.5bn (+15.3% YoY).
  • Self-Storage segment: Revenue JPY10.0bn (+17.2% YoY), Gross profit JPY3.7bn (+17.8% YoY), Operating profit JPY2.7bn (+17.5% YoY).
  • Land Rights Consolidation: Revenue JPY2.1bn (+9.6% YoY), Gross profit JPY538mn (-18.1% YoY), Operating profit JPY340mn (-9.3% YoY).

Strike (6196 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased 45.3% YoY to JPY13.3bn, driven by a rise in deals closed and large-scale projects.
  • Cost of revenue grew 51.1% YoY to JPY4.7bn, influenced by higher incentive salaries and personnel costs.
  • SG&A expenses rose 16.6% YoY to JPY3.6bn due to increased rent expenses from headquarters expansion in March 2023.

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Daily Brief China: China Communications Construction, Pacific Textiles, BYD, Legend Biotech Corp and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): Robust Growth Prospects Accelerating
  • High Dividend Yield, Expansion Outside China, Listed HK Apparel/Footwear Stocks Screener
  • [Blue Lotus New Energy Sector Update]: Rocky but Firm: China New Energy’s Venture Overseas
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) Offer Update – Some New Information About the Takeover Worth the Attention


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Robust Growth Prospects Accelerating

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Communications Construction (1800 HK)‘s overseas contracts surged sharply in 2Q24 as market share gained. Slow domestic contracts are transient as bond issues will accelerate.
  • Its backlog continued to grow to 4.7x 12-month forward revenue, which is higher than the 5-year average of 4.1x. Improving margin trend in 1Q24 will sustain into 2H24.
  • With a projected ROE of 8.4% for the next two years, its 0.2x P/B is inexpensive. It is also attractive based on dividend yields of 7.7% and 8.4%, respectively.

High Dividend Yield, Expansion Outside China, Listed HK Apparel/Footwear Stocks Screener

By Sameer Taneja

  • We compile a list of ten high-yielding/net cash or low-net debt stocks in HK’s apparel/footwear value chain. HK is a pariah for investors, and trailing dividend yields are approaching 6-20%. 
  • As in other insights, we don’t estimate future earnings for all companies, but we indicate if the company has quality by measuring long-term ROCE (average five years).
  • By expanding outside of China, most of these companies have derisked themselves from the trade war ( to the extent they can) and are also ready for earnings inflection.

[Blue Lotus New Energy Sector Update]: Rocky but Firm: China New Energy’s Venture Overseas

By Eric Wen

  • We tallied China renewable energy industry’s expansion overseas in June 2023 and recalibrated our result about one year after. 
  • We see Chinese firm’s strategy of building capacities in the outskirt of US/Europe hard to defeat;
  • The negative is manufacturing job losses at home. We also find more local competition in solar PV invertors.

Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) Offer Update – Some New Information About the Takeover Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • This takeover could be at negotiation stage and different parties haven’t reached an agreement.When Legend Bio releases official announcement, it means main issues of the deal have been agreed upon.
  • Genscript will be a big winner if Legend Bio is acquired. Major shareholders would take measures to maximize personal interests.The concern is whether Genscript will offer dividends to small/medium shareholders/investors. 
  • Whether the takeover is successful or not, reasonable valuation of Legend Bio is between US$12.5- US$15 billion. Due to uncertainties, we recommend investors buy Legend Bio directly rather than Genscript.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Talen Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • TLN: PJM Results Affirm Attractive Value


TLN: PJM Results Affirm Attractive Value

By Hamed Khorsand

  • PJM published the Base Residual Auction results for the 2025-26 planning year that were the highest on record. PJM is the primary region TLN serves.
  • TLN announced participation in the auction and cleared 6,820 megawatts of electricity at the auction price of $269.92 per megawatt. 
  • TLN anticipates generating approximately $670 million in capacity revenue during the auction year. This compares to approximately $160 million run rate TLN had been reporting capacity revenue in recent quarters.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Rio Tinto Ltd, Vedanta Resources, Shell PLC, Iron Ore, Omai Gold Mines, Nabaltec AG, Arrow Exploration , Toagosei Co Ltd, Kohsoku Corp, Pan African Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The “Unification”
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources
  • [Earnings Preview] Bleeding Refining Margins & Lower Gas Prices to Eat into Shell’s Earnings
  • [IO Weekly 2024/30] China’s Manufacturing Slowdown & Strong Supply Continue to Pressure Iron Ore
  • OMG: Exploration Update – Fully Funded Through 2025
  • Nabaltec – High-tech white powders
  • Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Continued high flow rate at 1st Hz well. Very good result at 2nd well. High overall production
  • Toagosei Co Ltd (4045 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
  • Kohsoku Corp (7504 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Pan African Resources – Hitting expectations


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The “Unification”

By David Blennerhassett

  • Just shy of three years ago, BHP (BHP AU) announced the unification of its dual-headed corporate structure to make BHP “simpler and more agile”.
  • Collapsing DLCs/share-classes was all the rage back then. The prior year, Unilever (UNA NA) collapsed its DLC; and Royal Dutch Shell  unified its A and B lines in 2021. 
  • Rio (RIO AU/LN) is one of only a handful of remaining DLCs. Renewed investor calls to unwind the DLC and the recent UK’s listing regime reform necessitate a rethink.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


[Earnings Preview] Bleeding Refining Margins & Lower Gas Prices to Eat into Shell’s Earnings

By Suhas Reddy

  • Shell forecasts a decline in upstream production, gas price realisations, and refining margins. Its QoQ Revenue & EPS are expected to drop 4.3% and 21.7%, respectively.
  • Shell anticipates Q2 post-tax impairments of USD 1.5 to USD 2 billion due to halting a biofuels plant in Rotterdam and divesting its Singapore refinery.
  • On a brighter note, Shell anticipates higher chemical margins, increased marketing sales volume, and improved refinery utilisation rates in Q2.

[IO Weekly 2024/30] China’s Manufacturing Slowdown & Strong Supply Continue to Pressure Iron Ore

By Pranay Yadav

  • Weakness Persists: Iron ore prices hovered at critical support level of $100/ton on consistent ample supply & weak demand driven by China’s slowing manufacturing sector.
  • Options Market Shift: Despite overall bearish sentiment, the options market showed increased call activity, particularly for front-month expiries, indicating potential short-term bullish speculation.
  • Production & Supply Outlook: Major producers like Vale & Rio Tinto are expected to increase iron ore output, contributing to a bearish outlook due to ample supply in global markets.

OMG: Exploration Update – Fully Funded Through 2025

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • The Company provided an exploration update on the Omai Gold Project with development goals laid out in this release.
  • • Since our last note, Omai raised $13M in a private placement which closed on June 20th and sets the Company up for the next two years of project development.
  • • On July 2nd, Omai commenced a 10,000m drill program with the goal of expanding the overall mine plan (by way of resource growth) and began many of the baseline studies required for permitting and engineering.

Nabaltec – High-tech white powders

By Edison Investment Research

Nabaltec is a leading global producer of functional fillers and specialty alumina, serving a wide range of growing end-uses including halogen-free flame retardants and electric vehicle (EV) battery separators. The company’s strong product focus, technical product support and customer relationships are key differentiators. It has a healthy balance sheet and is able to exploit potential growth in the high-growth boehmite and data centre markets. Nabaltec trades at a 47% discount to peers on FY24e EV/EBITDA and a 32% discount on FY24e P/E. We initiate our coverage with a valuation of €29.9 per share, 93% above the current share price.


Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Continued high flow rate at 1st Hz well. Very good result at 2nd well. High overall production

By Auctus Advisors

  • • The first CN Horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) is currently flowing at a rate of 2.22 mbbl/d (oil) with an IP30 rate of 2.65 mbbl/d (1.32 mbbl/d net).
  • • The well is performing better than expected.
  • We forecast IP90 rate of only 1.5 mbbl/d.

Toagosei Co Ltd (4045 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue for Q2 2024 was JPY81.6bn (+6.0% YoY), with operating profit at JPY7.3bn (+54.3% YoY).
  • Full-year FY12/24 forecast revised upward: revenue JPY170.0bn (+6.7% YoY), operating profit JPY15.5bn (+24.0% YoY).
  • Interim and year-end dividends increased, projecting a full-year dividend of JPY60.0 per share, up JPY7.0 YoY.

Kohsoku Corp (7504 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue for Q1 FY03/25 increased by 3.2% YoY to JPY26.8bn, with a gross profit of JPY5.2bn.
  • Operating profit for Q1 FY03/25 decreased by 3.2% YoY to JPY956mn, and recurring profit fell by 2.9% YoY to JPY1.0bn.
  • SG&A expenses for Q1 FY03/25 rose by JPY182mn YoY to JPY4.3bn, driven by increases in salaries, freight, and bonuses.

Pan African Resources – Hitting expectations

By Edison Investment Research

On 29 July, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced it had produced 186,039oz gold in FY24 at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$1,350/oz. This was within the previously guided range of 186–190koz at an AISC of US$1,325–1,350/oz and was 212oz (0.1%) above our expectation of 185,827oz. Production guidance for FY25 was reiterated at 215–225koz (cf Edison’s unchanged and relatively conservative forecast of 216.6koz). Our financial forecasts for FY24 remain little changed as a result of PAF’s announcement. However, we have increased our forecasts for FY25 to reflect the gold price remaining high into H2 CY24.


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Daily Brief Industrials: BayCurrent Consulting , Stemmer Imaging AG, China Communications Construction, CMS Info Systems Ltd, Azoom, Trimas Corp, Meiwa Corp, Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha, Ns Tool Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed
  • Portfolio Update: July 2024
  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): Robust Growth Prospects Accelerating
  • CMS Info Systems- Forensic Analysis
  • Azoom (3496 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update
  • TRS: Lack of Trifecta a Drag
  • Meiwa Corp (8103 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Ns Tool Co Ltd (6157 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. 
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.

Portfolio Update: July 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Welcome back to the portfolio updates series!
  • This month, I am a few days early with the update. The reason is that my wife and I are celebrating our wedding next weekend, followed by an extended vacation, during which I will be disconnected for a couple of weeks.
  • As a result, the next stock deep dive will not be released until the last week of August.

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Robust Growth Prospects Accelerating

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Communications Construction (1800 HK)‘s overseas contracts surged sharply in 2Q24 as market share gained. Slow domestic contracts are transient as bond issues will accelerate.
  • Its backlog continued to grow to 4.7x 12-month forward revenue, which is higher than the 5-year average of 4.1x. Improving margin trend in 1Q24 will sustain into 2H24.
  • With a projected ROE of 8.4% for the next two years, its 0.2x P/B is inexpensive. It is also attractive based on dividend yields of 7.7% and 8.4%, respectively.

CMS Info Systems- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • CMS Info Systems Ltd (CMSINFO IN) is the market leader in the Indian cash management and managed services industry. 
  • The company has shown good growth in recent years, and this has mostly come from the managed services and card market.
  • Among major forensic takeaways, the company has been taking continuous hit on its debtors which undermines the growth quality. Cautious must also be given to payables, depreciation rate and ESOPs.

Azoom (3496 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased 26.3% YoY to JPY7.6bn, with operating profit up 36.9% YoY to JPY1.3bn.
  • Idle Asset Utilization segment Q3 sales were JPY7.4bn (+27.4% YoY), with an operating profit of JPY1.3bn (+39.1% YoY).
  • Visualization segment Q3 sales were JPY149mn (-6.0% YoY), with an operating loss of JPY9mn (profit of JPY5mn in Q3 FY09/23).

TRS: Lack of Trifecta a Drag

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TRS experienced a continuation of sales growing within its packaging and aerospace segments. TRS’s specialty products segment remains a laggard to the rest of the business with demand eroding. 
  • The recovery within the packaging business should have been the main highlight of TRS’s Q2. However, the weakness within specialty products resulted in TRS missing our estimates for the quarter.
  • We are updating our full year estimates after TRS lowered its adjusted EPS and sales guidance. 

Meiwa Corp (8103 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 6.2% YoY to JPY39.7bn, with significant contributions from Automotive & Battery Materials, Second, and Third Business segments.
  • Operating profit rose 15.4% YoY to JPY780mn, while recurring profit surged 95.1% YoY to JPY1.1bn, driven by improved earnings at equity-method affiliates.
  • Net income attributable to owners of the parent grew 181.0% YoY to JPY756mn, with a notable increase in equity in earnings of affiliates.

Mitsubishi Kakoki Kaisha (6331 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • For Q1 FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY11.9bn (+29.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY1.1bn (+228.1% YoY).
  • The company maintained its 1H and full-year forecasts and resolved to dispose of 7,000 treasury shares.
  • The medium-term management plan targets FY03/25 revenue of JPY55.0bn, OPM of 5.0% or more, and ROE of 7.0% or more.

Ns Tool Co Ltd (6157 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/25 results: Sales JPY2.3bn (+3.3% YoY), Operating profit JPY338mn (+3.5% YoY), Operating profit margin 14.9% (+0.1pp).
  • Automotive sector: No significant improvement in tool demand despite anticipated recovery from domestic car production resurgence.
  • Overseas sales increased YoY, particularly in Greater China and parts of Asia, offsetting low sales in primary markets.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, KCE Electronics PCL, Advanced Micro Devices, Mediatek Inc, United Microelectron Sp Adr, Samsung Electronics, Liberty Latin America , A10 Networks, Nec Networks & System Integr and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Nvidia’s China Dominance in AI Accelerator Has Serious Deficiencies
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored
  • AMD. Playing The Long Game
  • Mediatek: AI Features Can Shorten Smartphone Replacement Cycle; New Verticals to Kick In 2H25E
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): There Appears to Be No Bright Spot in 2H24F.
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2024): Top tech firms join CoSAI.
  • Liberty Costa Rica – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • ATEN: Volatility of the Spending Pattern
  • Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update


Nvidia’s China Dominance in AI Accelerator Has Serious Deficiencies

By Robert McKay

  • Nvidia’s H20 and upcoming B20 were launched to comply with China export controls, and have remained successful due to deficiencies and supply issues for Huawei’s Ascend AI accelerators.
  • However, Nvidia’s China success will be short-lived due to increasing LLM compute requirements and no method for it to offer a more performance dense offering due to export controls.
  • Not only will Huawei’s upcoming Ascend AI accelerator mitigate this issue, but it will likely also aim to address some of the other deficiencies of the Ascend platform too.

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
  • At present, we see 3 ADDs and 3 DELs but since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.

AMD. Playing The Long Game

By William Keating

  • Q224 revenues of $5.8 billion, +5.5% QoQ, +9% YoY and $100 million above the guided midpoint
  • AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $6.7 billion at the midpoint, up 15% QoQ and about the same YoY.
  • AMD shares are up 9% in premarket trading, hardly the response one expected from a good but not amazing report. But why?

Mediatek: AI Features Can Shorten Smartphone Replacement Cycle; New Verticals to Kick In 2H25E

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Mediatek 2Q24 Earnings Beat Expectations; Strong Mid-Term Revenue Guidance Maintained
  • 2Q24 Global Smartphone Market Witnessed Best Growth in Three Years
  • Repeats Strong Mid-Term Guidance; Continues to Signal Revenue Strength for 2025E & 2026E. Maintain Structural Long Rating.

MediaTek (2454.TT): There Appears to Be No Bright Spot in 2H24F.

By Patrick Liao

  • 3Q24 Sales: NT$123.5-132.4 billion, down 3% to up 4% QoQ, up 12-24% YoY. 4Q24 is expected to be a slower quarter based on current expectations.
  • Advanced 3nm technology can support SP, tablets, and other end devices. AI-powered functions like ARM-based CPU or EV will bear fruit in 2025.
  • The GPU has partnered with NVDA. Auto chips partnered with NVDA will be shipped out later in 2025. They will power MTK’s CPU and ISP in conjunction with NVDA’s GPU.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

By Patrick Liao

  • 3Q24 guidance: Shipment up mid-single digits QoQ; ASP: Remains firm in USD; GM: around mid-30%. (Consensuses were high single digits.)
  • Has provided a 22nm HV solution for high-end OLED DDI to high-end SP, and expects to reach high-volume production in 2025.  
  • Cooperation with Intel Corp (INTC US) is progressing well, targeting MP for 14nm in 2027.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2024): Top tech firms join CoSAI.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • CoSAI is a collaboration between tech giants like Intel, Google, and IBM to drive innovation in the automotive industry.
  • Knobs and buttons are making a comeback in car interfaces, reflecting a trend in automotive design for more tactile controls.
  • Apple opposes Tata-Vivo partnership as Vivo marks its 10th anniversary in India, while Biden admin shows support for CHIPS Act to boost packaging and testing industry.

Liberty Costa Rica – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Liberty Costa Rica’s ESG as “Adequate”. The score mirrors our assessment of parent Liberty Latin America (LLA), which discloses ESG-related information on a consolidated basis, without meaningful details on the bond-issuing credit pools that we cover (C&W Communications and Liberty Puerto Rico). 

We assess LLA’s Social and Governance pillars as “Strong” and “Adequate”, respectively, offsetting the “Weak” Environmental score. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 


ATEN: Volatility of the Spending Pattern

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN reported Q2 results with greater success in winning enterprise orders while North American service providers limited their spending. 
  • Over the past year, ATEN has shifted more of its sales and marketing effort to winning enterprise customers, which should have more of a meaningful benefit to recurring revenue. 
  • ATEN reported revenue of $60.1 million compared to our forecast of $62.7 million. The second quarter results were lower than first quarter numbers, which is rare to see for ATEN.

Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 progress rates versus full-year forecast: 25.7% for orders, 21.7% for revenue, 8.2% for operating profit, 8.4% for net income.
  • Orders: JPY97.5bn (+1.0% YoY); Revenue: JPY79.1bn (+10.4% YoY); Operating profit: JPY2.4bn (+113.2% YoY); Net income: JPY1.5bn (+734.1% YoY).
  • Segment performance: DX Solutions orders +18.6% YoY, Network Solutions orders -3.3% YoY, Environmental & Social Solutions orders -11.9% YoY.

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Most Read: Ryohin Keikaku, Sun Corp, BayCurrent Consulting , Ola Electric, Alteogen Inc, Rio Tinto Ltd, Southern Cross Gold, SK Biopharmaceuticals , APR and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions – Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s
  • True Wind Raises Partial Offer for Sun Corp Further, Leaving an Interesting Back End
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed
  • Ola Electric IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends Today
  • Sun Corporation (6736 JP): Third’s Time a Charm for True Wind’s Final Offer
  • Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The “Unification”
  • Southern Cross Gold (SXG AU)/Mawson (MAW CN): Hybrid Dual-Listing
  • KRX’s September Major Rebalancing Events: Why We Should Focus on KRX BBIG
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in August 2024


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions – Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.
  • The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.
  • The Nikkei Index Team announced Fast Retailing (9983 JP) would be capped. I didn’t expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.

True Wind Raises Partial Offer for Sun Corp Further, Leaving an Interesting Back End

By Travis Lundy

  • On 10 June, Sun Corp subsidiary Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)‘s SPAC sponsor True Wind Capital launched a Tender Offer for 19% of SunCorp at a premium but discount to NAV.
  • The price was too low. CLBT shares rose. They lifted the TOB price by 8% to ¥4750. Still too low. It was trading there. Now they have lifted to ¥5500.
  • Now a 49% premium to undisturbed, 29.4% premium to all-time high prior to the first tender. Changes in terms means this could get done. More bullish than it looks.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. 
  • Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.

Ola Electric IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ola Electric is now looking to raise about US$730m in its India IPO.
  • Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends Today

By Brian Freitas


Sun Corporation (6736 JP): Third’s Time a Charm for True Wind’s Final Offer

By Arun George

  • True Wind has increased its partial offer for Sun Corp (6736 JP) to JPY5,500 and materially lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 3.3m to 1.1m.  
  • True Wind’s previous two offers were a non-starter due to an unattractive price and an onerous minimum acceptance threshold. The final offer addresses both these issues. 
  • The offer will succeed due to the low minimum acceptance threshold and the 25% price uplift vs. the 19% value increase in the Cellebrite stake (since the offer announcement).

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The “Unification”

By David Blennerhassett

  • Just shy of three years ago, BHP (BHP AU) announced the unification of its dual-headed corporate structure to make BHP “simpler and more agile”.
  • Collapsing DLCs/share-classes was all the rage back then. The prior year, Unilever (UNA NA) collapsed its DLC; and Royal Dutch Shell  unified its A and B lines in 2021. 
  • Rio (RIO AU/LN) is one of only a handful of remaining DLCs. Renewed investor calls to unwind the DLC and the recent UK’s listing regime reform necessitate a rethink.

Southern Cross Gold (SXG AU)/Mawson (MAW CN): Hybrid Dual-Listing

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 11th June, Southern Cross Gold (SXG AU) announced a proposed merger with Mawson Gold (MAW CN). It’s a novel approach to dual-list both companies in Australia and Canada.. 
  • MAW intends to divest all its non-SXG assets, and reduce its shares out to mirror shares held in SXG. Then issue new shares to SXG shareholders on a one-for-one basis.
  • Terms are now firmed for what the media calls a “reverse spin-out”, with a Scheme Meeting expected in October, and potential implementation late-October/early-November.

KRX’s September Major Rebalancing Events: Why We Should Focus on KRX BBIG

By Sanghyun Park

  • The KRX BBIG’s concentrated weight and top three replacements still attract significant flow trading interest despite a decline in AUM.
  • In the Battery Sector, Posco Future M will replace Ecopro BM, while in the Bio Sector, Alteogen will replace SK Biopharmaceuticals.
  • A significant single-day passive flow is expected, especially for SK Biopharm. Additionally, a day trading setup with Posco Future M and Ecopro BM will likely attract substantial interest.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in August 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in August 2024, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 39 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in August and could underperform relative to the market.
  • The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in August include APR, Fadu, and Kuk Il Paper.

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Daily Brief Health Care: SK Biopharmaceuticals , Arvida, Daiichi Sankyo, Legend Biotech Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX’s September Major Rebalancing Events: Why We Should Focus on KRX BBIG
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom
  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Starts FY25 on Firm Note; Enhertu Flying Higher Highs; Guidance Reaffirmed
  • Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) Offer Update – Some New Information About the Takeover Worth the Attention


KRX’s September Major Rebalancing Events: Why We Should Focus on KRX BBIG

By Sanghyun Park

  • The KRX BBIG’s concentrated weight and top three replacements still attract significant flow trading interest despite a decline in AUM.
  • In the Battery Sector, Posco Future M will replace Ecopro BM, while in the Bio Sector, Alteogen will replace SK Biopharmaceuticals.
  • A significant single-day passive flow is expected, especially for SK Biopharm. Additionally, a day trading setup with Posco Future M and Ecopro BM will likely attract substantial interest.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of July 2024, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Starts FY25 on Firm Note; Enhertu Flying Higher Highs; Guidance Reaffirmed

By Tina Banerjee

  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) announced better-than-expected Q1FY25 result, with all key parameters exceeding expectation. Q1 revenue increased 24% to ¥436B, mainly driven by 59% growth in Enhertu sales to ¥130B.
  • For its approved indications, Enhertu maintained #1 market share for new patients in U.S. The drug is expected to have blockbuster status in both US and Europe this year.
  • Despite a good progress in Q1FY25, especially on profitability front, Daiichi Sankyo has reaffirmed FY25 guidance. Better-than-anticipated Enhertu revenue and Fx should lead to guidance revision later this year.

Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) Offer Update – Some New Information About the Takeover Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • This takeover could be at negotiation stage and different parties haven’t reached an agreement.When Legend Bio releases official announcement, it means main issues of the deal have been agreed upon.
  • Genscript will be a big winner if Legend Bio is acquired. Major shareholders would take measures to maximize personal interests.The concern is whether Genscript will offer dividends to small/medium shareholders/investors. 
  • Whether the takeover is successful or not, reasonable valuation of Legend Bio is between US$12.5- US$15 billion. Due to uncertainties, we recommend investors buy Legend Bio directly rather than Genscript.

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