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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Nikon Corp, Traton SE, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Luk Fook Holdings Intl, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp, Mister Car Wash , Murphy Usa Inc, frontdoor Inc, Intralot S.A.-Integrated Lot, Guess? Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here
  • Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index
  • 99 Speedmart Holding Pre-IPO – Consistent Network Expansion, Although Margins Remain Well Below Peak
  • Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?
  • Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: Initiation Of Coverage – A Tale Of Increasing Operational Efficiency With Technology Implementation! – Major Drivers
  • Mister Car Wash Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increased Revenue Through Titanium 360 Rollout & Member Upgrades & Other Major Drivers
  • Murphy USA Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion Of Tobacco Business & Digital Transformation
  • Frontdoor Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Revenue Enhancements & Customer Base Growth Strategies! – Major Drivers
  • Intralot – Focus on business development in FY24
  • GES: Snapping the Store: Moving to a Boutique Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT


Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline “*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES
  • That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester’s filing.
  • Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren’t always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.
  • M&A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.

99 Speedmart Holding Pre-IPO – Consistent Network Expansion, Although Margins Remain Well Below Peak

By Clarence Chu

  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.
  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99 Speedmart) operates the “99 Speedmart” chain of mini-market outlets, retailing daily necessities across Malaysia.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?

By Rikki Malik

  • March Same-Store sales in China disappoint mainly due to diamond jewellery demand
  • Overall, gold demand in China continues to rise both in the retail and the official sector
  • Visitor arrivals to Hong Kong pick up but are still ~40% below pre-Covid levels.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: Initiation Of Coverage – A Tale Of Increasing Operational Efficiency With Technology Implementation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Grocery Outlet management reported its full-year 2023 earnings results, which were slightly ahead of expectations.
  • The company demonstrated strong customer acquisition and traffic, driven by competitive pricing and its treasure hunt shopping experience.
  • The acquisition of United Grocery Outlet is one of the major highlights of the company’s performance, as it added 40 stores to the network.

Mister Car Wash Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increased Revenue Through Titanium 360 Rollout & Member Upgrades & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Mister Car Wash unveiled its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ending December 31, 2023.
  • The annual results demonstrated solid progress driven by the company’s efforts to enhance its services, physical operations, and team.
  • During Q4, sales rose 7% to $230 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 5% to $69.5 million.

Murphy USA Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Expansion Of Tobacco Business & Digital Transformation

By Baptista Research

  • In the fourth quarter of 2023, Murphy USA reported solid performance which supports their enduring commitment to drive sustainable value for its stakeholders.
  • The company has been successful at achieving more from the same loyal customers, with statistics showing these customers spend 50% more than they did in 2019.
  • Furthermore, the company’s new loyalty members showed similar behavior as their most loyal customers in 2019, making about 5 transactions per month and spending at higher levels.

Frontdoor Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Revenue Enhancements & Customer Base Growth Strategies! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2023 earnings offered insights into Frontdoor’s financial performance, key initiatives, and strategic moves being executed by the company.
  • From the CEO, Bill Cobb’s comments, it is evident that 2023 was a record year in which the company exceeded Expectations and delivered exceptional financial performance.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Intralot – Focus on business development in FY24

By Edison Investment Research

Intralot enjoyed good underlying trends in performance in FY23 with encouraging trends in its main countries of focus and further progress on profitability. The much-improved balance sheet and extension of debt maturities mean management can focus on the significant business development opportunities available in FY24 and beyond. The share price looks attractive in the absence of potential new contract wins, which could be materially enhancing to the valuation.


GES: Snapping the Store: Moving to a Boutique Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?
  • after visiting stores in the Metro New Your City area and Long Island.
  • Management continues to materially upgrade the Guess?

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Most Read: APT Medical , Tesla , HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Nikon Corp, Link REIT, Horizon Robotics, Amman Mineral Internasional, Traton SE, Robosense Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: APT Medical Moving Higher
  • Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here
  • A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months
  • HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion
  • Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Large Part of the Growth Stems from Its JV
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks
  • Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: APT Medical Moving Higher

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
  • We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in three changes to the index.
  • With a big jump in tracking AUM over the last few months, passives will need to trade a lot of stock on implementation date.

Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?

By Andrew Lu

  • Again, Tesla reports a 1Q24 sales with 4% miss but post market share price up more than 10% for 6 reasons. 1. Gross margin was stable on 15% sales drop;
  • 2. ASP was stable; 3. Affordable EV on track for 2025; 4. Factory expansion to slow; 5. Optimus to sell end of 2025; 6. 2024 EV shipment higher than 2023.
  • Near term risks to remain: 1. When will margin trough? 2. Why bother to buy EV if 2nd hand market collapsing? 3. Will Robotaxi/FSD bring in meaningful sales/profits soon?

HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s IPO price has been determined at 83,400 won per share, which is at the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • A total of 2,021 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 201 to 1. HD Hyundai Marine Solution will start trading on 8 May 2024.
  • Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, which represents an upside of 18% from the IPO price.

Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline “*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES
  • That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester’s filing.
  • Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren’t always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.

A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we review the share price performances of the top 13 IPOs (in terms of market cap) in Korea in the past 8 months. 
  • We review the the share price performances over different time periods (1 day, 1 week,  and 1 month). We also analyze the demand ratios and lock-up periods of the IPOs. 
  • On average, 12.7% of the IPO shares are under lockup periods for the 13 companies listed below. HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO has 45.8% of shares under lock-up.

HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion

By David Blennerhassett

  • In RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming – This Changes AH RelationshipsTravis Lundy discussed the forthcoming inclusion of RMB dual counters in the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs.
  • This is but one of the five capital market cooperation measures announced by the CSRC last Friday. 
  • The other four measures include ETFs, improving mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong, and the inclusion of REITs. This insight discusses the latter.

Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Large Part of the Growth Stems from Its JV

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are GS, MS and China Securities.
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.
  • M&A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There were only 12 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the year. More than half the listings were in March.
  • Of those stocks, we only see Robosense Technology (2498 HK) having a chance of being added to the HSCI in June and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
  • There is a big lock-up expiry for Robosense Technology (2498 HK) in July and that should keep the stock under pressure.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): Samsung Electronics


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): Samsung Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.6bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We estimate the short interests to be USD 6.6bn and highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Eyes on Yen and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Eyes on Yen
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/LI US/LKNCY US/AAPL/TSM/1810 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/3690 HK/TCOM US/BIDU US/MNSO US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US
  • Japan Consumers: Still Cautious Spending but Big Savings Will Unlock when Real Wages Rise
  • Japan – Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries


Ohayo Japan | Eyes on Yen

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite up for a third consecutive day. The Dow Jones saw its first decline in five sessions.
  • The Japanese yen declined to its weakest levels against the dollar since 1990, raising concerns about intervention from Japanese authorities
  • Asahi Kasei plans to invest around 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion) in a new plant in Canada to produce components for electric vehicle batteries

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810HK/LI US/LKNCY US/AAPL/TSM/1810 HK

By Eric Wen

  • 1810HK/LI:Tesla cuts prices of all series by 14,000yuan to compete with Xiaomi SU7 and LI L6,with the fomer facing long time of delivery and the latter had a mediocre start(//-)
  • LI US: LI cuts price for all series, might be due to difficulty to achieve delivery targets (/)
  • LKNCY US: New products fail to bring meaningful incremental DAU growth, bodes ill for 2Q24 sales(-)

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:700 HK/3690 HK/TCOM US/BIDU US/MNSO US/PDD US/BABA US/NTES US

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK: Tencent’s “Dungeon & Fighter Mobile” is officially scheduled to be released on May 21st.(+)
  • 3690 HK/TCOM US: Meituan and Ctrip revenue growth may lower than industry average, indicating intensified competition.(-/-)
  • BIDU US: Baidu ADS sets revenue and profit indicators for Robotaxi(/)

Japan Consumers: Still Cautious Spending but Big Savings Will Unlock when Real Wages Rise

By Michael Causton

  • This in-depth analysis of consumption data shows the level of caution among consumers caused by inflation and fears of more price rises to come. 
  • Food expenditure has risen to a record high due to higher prices and this has curtailed spending in other categories like fashion for most income classes.
  • Savings rates are at record levels, however, boosting opportunities for the better brands and retailers. If wages rise in real-terms, then consumer confidence is likely to rebound.

Japan – Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Japan’s domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024.
  • The slope of Japan’s domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.
  • Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.

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Daily Brief ECM: HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis
  • A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months
  • 99 Speedmart Holding Pre-IPO – Consistent Network Expansion, Although Margins Remain Well Below Peak
  • OceanaGold Philippines IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation – Too Expensive Even at This Price
  • Pre-IPO Sunho Biologics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO – The Positives – Profitability More than Doubled


HD Hyundai Marine Solution: IPO Book Building Results Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution’s IPO price has been determined at 83,400 won per share, which is at the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • A total of 2,021 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 201 to 1. HD Hyundai Marine Solution will start trading on 8 May 2024.
  • Our base case valuation of HD Hyundai Marine Solution is target price of 98,254 won per share, which represents an upside of 18% from the IPO price.

A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we review the share price performances of the top 13 IPOs (in terms of market cap) in Korea in the past 8 months. 
  • We review the the share price performances over different time periods (1 day, 1 week,  and 1 month). We also analyze the demand ratios and lock-up periods of the IPOs. 
  • On average, 12.7% of the IPO shares are under lockup periods for the 13 companies listed below. HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO has 45.8% of shares under lock-up.

99 Speedmart Holding Pre-IPO – Consistent Network Expansion, Although Margins Remain Well Below Peak

By Clarence Chu

  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.
  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99 Speedmart) operates the “99 Speedmart” chain of mini-market outlets, retailing daily necessities across Malaysia.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

OceanaGold Philippines IPO – Updated Thoughts on Valuation – Too Expensive Even at This Price

By Ethan Aw

  • OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO.
  • OceanaGold Philippines (OGPI) is a producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, and a subsidiary of OceanaGold Corporation, a Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) listed gold mining and exploration company.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance and shared our quick thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.

Pre-IPO Sunho Biologics (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Sunho’s pipeline has high risk and there is a long way to go to demonstrate their final clinical value. It’s highly uncertain if Sunho would bring expected return to investors.
  • The entities involved in the process of reorganization were all related parties. Investment from Efung Anhe/Efung Ansheng sparked concern from CSRC. Sunho is required to explain whether there’s any benefit transfer.
  • Due to the lack of strong fundamentals, there is no reason for high valuation. It’s not surprising if Sunho’s valuation finally falls below HKD1.53 billion (or even below HK$1 billion).  

Afcons Infrastructure Limited Pre-IPO – The Positives – Profitability More than Doubled

By Ethan Aw

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise US$840m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao
  • Indika Energy – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And 5NC2 Notes Offering – Lucror Analytics


Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Indika Energy – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And 5NC2 Notes Offering – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Indika Energy has launched a tender offer for its USD 8.25% 2025 notes, with USD 534 mn outstanding. For each USD 1,000 in principal, the tender consideration is USD 962.5 and early tender consideration is USD 50, leading to a total consideration of USD 1,012.5. Indika is concurrently launching a USD 144A/RegS offering. Holders of the 8.25% ’25s may request to receive priority allocation on the new notes.

We view initial price talk of 8.875% as attractive, given the company’s robust credit profile and improving debt maturity profile.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion
  • IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks
  • Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index
  • International Paper/DS Smith: Spread


HK REITs Re-Rate On Southbound Inclusion

By David Blennerhassett

  • In RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming – This Changes AH RelationshipsTravis Lundy discussed the forthcoming inclusion of RMB dual counters in the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs.
  • This is but one of the five capital market cooperation measures announced by the CSRC last Friday. 
  • The other four measures include ETFs, improving mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong, and the inclusion of REITs. This insight discusses the latter.

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Mar 24: Traton Could Outperform the DAX Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently see no changes for the DAX index but there could be one change for the MDAX index.
  • M&A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) could be deleted in the run up to the June 2024 review.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Robosense (2498 HK) Could Be Added in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There were only 12 new listings on the Main Board of the HKEX (388 HK) in the first quarter of the year. More than half the listings were in March.
  • Of those stocks, we only see Robosense Technology (2498 HK) having a chance of being added to the HSCI in June and then into Southbound Stock Connect.
  • There is a big lock-up expiry for Robosense Technology (2498 HK) in July and that should keep the stock under pressure.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • I see two regular changes for the F100 index during the June 2024 review. There are more names very close to triggering F100 index changes.
  • I see eight other changes for F250 in the run up to the June 2024 review including three intra-review changes. One of those intra-review changes will be confirmed later today.

International Paper/DS Smith: Spread

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Following the withdrawal of Mondi PLC (MNDI LN) from the contest to acquire DS Smith PLC (SMDS LN), the gross spread to the deal turned negative (from >10%).
  • At the median 7.07x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA (within the range of former transactions), the implied equity value of DS Smith would be 388.4p. (vs. an IBES consensus TP of 395p).
  • IP is giving away most of the synergies. Spread is 1.91%/2.86% (gross, annualized assuming settlement by Y/E). I would wait for the spread to widen, before setting it up.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here
  • Fanuc (6954) | Profitability Problems Persist
  • Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts
  • Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?
  • Advance Create (8798): Q1 FY09/24 Update
  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Mixed 1Q24 Result; Order Book Swells; New Drug Approval in Europe
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q14F in Line; Singapore Fab Expansion Received Adds.
  • TKC (9746): Q1 FY09/24 Update
  • Mister Car Wash Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increased Revenue Through Titanium 360 Rollout & Member Upgrades & Other Major Drivers
  • Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: Initiation Of Coverage – A Tale Of Increasing Operational Efficiency With Technology Implementation! – Major Drivers


Nikon (7731) – Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There’s Value Here

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline “*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES
  • That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester’s filing.
  • Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren’t always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.

Fanuc (6954) | Profitability Problems Persist

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fanuc reported a -7% decline in revenue for FY3/24 and 26% decline in operating profit. 
  • The market will be disappointed by guidance for a further fall on the top line and 15% decline in profits as margins hit an all time low
  • The valuation of 30x EV / EBIT suggests the market was hoping for a turnaround in profits this year. That recovery has now been pushed back

Thai Banks 1Q24 Screener; We Stick with Krung Thai for Best Value, Kasikorn for Positive Catalysts

By Victor Galliano

  • Krung Thai is our value pick among Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, close to double digit ROE with a healthy balance sheet, along with undemanding PBV and PE ratios
  • We maintain Kasikorn on the buy list, as its cost of risk was well contained in 1Q24, a key positive catalyst for its improving post-provision returns
  • Bank of Thailand is currently accepting applications for digital banking licenses until 19 September 2024; incumbent banks and domestic big corporates are likely to form the core of applicants

Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?

By Rikki Malik

  • March Same-Store sales in China disappoint mainly due to diamond jewellery demand
  • Overall, gold demand in China continues to rise both in the retail and the official sector
  • Visitor arrivals to Hong Kong pick up but are still ~40% below pre-Covid levels.

Advance Create (8798): Q1 FY09/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Advance Create Co., Ltd. is an independent insurance agent that sells insurance products mainly to individuals on behalf of multiple insurance companies, also undertaking follow-up services on their behalf.
  • In FY09/23, the company reported revenue of JPY10.2bn, operating loss of JPY2.0bn, recurring loss of JPY2.2bn, and net loss attributable to owners of the parent of JPY1.8bn
  • On February 20, 2024, Advance Create Co., Ltd. announced that it expects to receive dividends from its consolidated subsidiary, Advance Create Reinsurance Incorporated.

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Mixed 1Q24 Result; Order Book Swells; New Drug Approval in Europe

By Tina Banerjee

  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) reported mixed 1Q24 result, with revenue beating and operating profit missing estimates. Despite robust revenue growth, profitability is under pressure.
  • With accumulated orders exceeding $12.5B (vs $12B at the end of 2023), the outlook remains strong. A gradual increase in Plant 4 operations is expected to drive sequential revenue growth.
  • On April 23, Samsung Bioepis received marketing approval from European Commission (EC) for Pyzchiva, a biosimilar of Stelara, thereby becoming an early mover in a potential €2.5B market.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q14F in Line; Singapore Fab Expansion Received Adds.

By Patrick Liao

  • UMC expects macro uncertainties and cost headwinds to linger into 2H24. 
  • The P3 project has received strong support from the Singapore government with a US$5 billion Capex. 
  • UMC has seen high interest from customers for its 14nm capacity. 

TKC (9746): Q1 FY09/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • TKC Corporation provides accounting and tax services to accounting firms (and client companies they advise), local governments, and others using its own computational centers, while subsidiary TLP Corp.
  • In full-year FY09/23, the company reported consolidated sales of JPY71.9bn, operating profit of JPY14.3bn, recurring profit of JPY14.8bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY10.8bn.
  • TKC does not release a medium-term business plan. However, it is pursuing the following four objectives in close cooperation with TKC National Federation.

Mister Car Wash Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage – Increased Revenue Through Titanium 360 Rollout & Member Upgrades & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Mister Car Wash unveiled its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ending December 31, 2023.
  • The annual results demonstrated solid progress driven by the company’s efforts to enhance its services, physical operations, and team.
  • During Q4, sales rose 7% to $230 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 5% to $69.5 million.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.: Initiation Of Coverage – A Tale Of Increasing Operational Efficiency With Technology Implementation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Grocery Outlet management reported its full-year 2023 earnings results, which were slightly ahead of expectations.
  • The company demonstrated strong customer acquisition and traffic, driven by competitive pricing and its treasure hunt shopping experience.
  • The acquisition of United Grocery Outlet is one of the major highlights of the company’s performance, as it added 40 stores to the network.

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Daily Brief Macro: Active GEM Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Active GEM Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum
  • US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline
  • Is the Yuan Ripe for Devaluation?
  • CX Daily: TikTok Faces Regulatory Hurdles in Bid to Become No.1 in Vietnam
  • Oil: When The Facts Change…
  • CX Daily: China’s Balancing Act to Keep Its Social Security System Afloat
  • Indonesia Policy Rate 6.25% (consensus 6.0%) in Apr-24
  • Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta
  • Sweden Unemployment Rate 9.2% (consensus 8.2%) in Mar-24
  • Australia CPI Inflation 3.6% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Q1-24


Active GEM Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

By Steven Holden

  • This report identifies stocks at the extremes of their positioning or momentum ranges within our active Global EM fund universe.
  • We have pinpointed eight stocks either at their historical positioning extremes or undergoing significant changes in fund ownership, providing detailed ownership profiles for each.
  • HDFC Bank loses steam after merger, Nu Holdings surges to new highs, POSCO plunges to new fund ownership lows.

US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • The ‘trade recession’ of 2023 is over, and the OECD CLI suggests global trade should grow 4.5% this year, after just 0.4% growth in 2023 (akin to global trade recession). 
  • Despite a hot job market (unemployment rate below NAIRU for 3 years), record illegal and legal immigration (and their higher working-age proportion) are keeping US wage growth relatively in check. 
  • MoM gains in core PCE were lower than core CPI in Feb’24, and likely will be in Mar’24 also, allowing a glide to lower core-PCE inflation and Jul’24 rate cut. 

Is the Yuan Ripe for Devaluation?

By Jeroen Blokland

  • China’s battered-down real estate sector and everything around it are craving for more rate cuts.
  • However, with foreign direct investment plummeting, a currency depreciation would further undermine China’s status as an attractive investment destination.
  • To make things worse, the Powell pivot means any depreciation-like action will likely be supersized.

CX Daily: TikTok Faces Regulatory Hurdles in Bid to Become No.1 in Vietnam

By Caixin Global

  • TikTok /:  TikTok faces regulatory hurdles in bid to become No.
  • Holiday /: Japan expects flood of Chinese tourists over Labor Day holiday
  • Leverage /: China’s macro leverage ratio rises to 294.8% despite slower borrowing

Oil: When The Facts Change…

By Alastair Newton

  • Changing circumstances in the Middle East are causing uncertainty in oil price forecasts.
  • Market analysts have a wide range of predictions due to these uncertain factors.
  • The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel are increasing risks, potentially leading to higher oil prices.

CX Daily: China’s Balancing Act to Keep Its Social Security System Afloat

By Caixin Global

  • Social security / Cover Story: China’s balancing act to keep its social security system afloat
  • China-U.S. /: U.S. Secretary of State to make second China trip in less than a year
  • Flood /: Authorities warn deadly South China floods may get worse

Indonesia Policy Rate 6.25% (consensus 6.0%) in Apr-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised the BI-Rate by 25bps to 6.25%, defying the consensus forecast as it aims to stabilize the Rupiah and curb inflation amid global financial uncertainties.
  • The rate hike is a strategic response to external pressures and inflation risks, ensuring that inflation remains within the 2.5 ± 1% target range through preemptive monetary tightening.
  • Despite the rate increase, Bank Indonesia maintains a pro-growth approach through supportive macroprudential policies and enhancements to the payment system, promoting economic expansion and financial system stability.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta

By David Mudd

  • HSI has now closed above its 3 year downtrend and is poised to advance to its next resistance level
  • International brokers finally turning more bullish on the market as the US, Europe and Japan markets turn down
  • High beta sectors are set to outperform as global investors reallocate to the cheapest AND 2nd largest tech sector in the world

Sweden Unemployment Rate 9.2% (consensus 8.2%) in Mar-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Sweden’s unemployment rate rose to 9.2% in March 2024, exceeding the predicted rate of 8.2%, which is the highest since June 2023.
  • The current unemployment rate is 1.31 percentage points higher than the average rate over the past year.
  • This increase indicates a concerning decline in the labour market.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Australia CPI Inflation 3.6% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Q1-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Australia’s CPI inflation rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 3.6% year-on-year in Q1-24, surpassing consensus expectations of 3.4%.
  • The weighted median inflation rate remained stable at 4.4%.
  • The trimmed mean inflation rate slowed down slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 4%, which was less than expected.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Australia: Mount Gibson Iron, Empire Energy, Lithium Power International and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Iron Ore Pure Play, 77% of the Mkt Cap in Cash, 0.5x EV-EBITDA With Catalysts
  • Empire Energy Group Ltd – Working through the timeline to first gas in 2025
  • Lithium Power International – Termination of coverage


Mount Gibson (MGX AU): Iron Ore Pure Play, 77% of the Mkt Cap in Cash, 0.5x EV-EBITDA With Catalysts

By Sameer Taneja

  • Mount Gibson Iron (MGX AU) is a pure play on iron ore trading at 0.5x EV-EBITDA, with 77% of the market capitalization in cash in H1 FY24 (likely to grow).
  • The company is about to announce reinstating its dividend, and a 50% payout could result in a yield of 20% on the current share price. 
  • The company’s main catalyst is its earnings release in August, after which a board meeting will decide on future dividends (which it has already committed to shareholders). 

Empire Energy Group Ltd – Working through the timeline to first gas in 2025

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is an oil and gas producer/developer, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
  • EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
  • Following the recent announcement of the divestment of its US assets for up to $9.1m, EEG has successfully completed a further capital raising through a placement of shares and sale of royalty interests to generate some $46.8m.

Lithium Power International – Termination of coverage

By Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ABC Arbitrage (ABCA), paragon (PGN), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL), Kendrion (KENDR), Lithium Power International (LPI), Triple Point Energy Transition (TENT), 4iG (4IG), e-therapeutics (ETX), Pharnext (ALPHA) and Shield Therapeutics (STX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.


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