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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #39 – The Token Unlocking Saga Is (Mostly) a One-Way Down Game and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #39 – The Token Unlocking Saga Is (Mostly) a One-Way Down Game


Crypto Moves #39 – The Token Unlocking Saga Is (Mostly) a One-Way Down Game

By Mads Eberhardt

  • In recent years, we have seen a surge in new crypto projects launching with billion-dollar market capitalizations right from the start.
  • This trend includes projects like Aptos, Sui, Celestia, and others.
  • If you examine the top 100 cryptocurrencies, it is evident that the list increasingly comprises recently launched, highly hyped cryptocurrencies that boast valuations that would make many Nasdaq-listed companies envious.

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Daily Brief Macro: EM Watch: The Chinese race towards 0% interest rates and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Watch: The Chinese race towards 0% interest rates
  • Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)
  • Sectors to Look at for the Japanese Stockmarket’s Next Phase
  • US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut
  • EM Economies Divergent Performance
  • Norway Policy Rate 4.5% (consensus 4.5%) in Aug-24
  • China Data: Weak Performance in July and into 2025
  • China Data:
  • Philippines Policy Rate 6.25% (consensus 6.5%) in Aug-24


EM Watch: The Chinese race towards 0% interest rates

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our Weekly EM Watch, where we look at China and other large EM countries through the lens of Western macro investors.
  • Over the past week, we received the latest quarterly update on Chinese foreign direct investments and the situation went from dire to abysmal.
  • There is a net negative inward FDI flow, and despite a significant $190 billion surplus in customs goods and services, the basic balance, which comprises both the current account and FDI, recorded a substantial deficit of $30 billion for the first time.

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

By David Mudd

  • Wide dispersion of returns has meant that industry sector investing  was a major performance contributor in Hong Kong
  • Lygend Resources & Technology (2245 HK) brokeout after Indonesia announced a moratorium on new nickel mining permits.  Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) broke its falling wedge pattern after announcing results.
  • Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK) broke to a new low after announcing a disappointing 2Q EBITDA.  The sector is also affected by a crackdown on illegal money exchange operations.

Sectors to Look at for the Japanese Stockmarket’s Next Phase

By Rikki Malik

  • JPY sensitive names and foreigner favourites are unlikely to be the next driver of the market.
  • Sectors not dependent on a weak Japanese Yen are more likely to be the next winners
  • While individual stocks will still benefit from corporate governance reforms, a rising tide will not lift all boats as it has done over the last 18 months

US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut

By Andreas Steno

  • Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot.
  • Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation report either.
  • It is once again shelter and transportation that are standing in the way of a soft US CPI print.

EM Economies Divergent Performance

By Alex Ng

  • Global market turbulence has had a spillover impact into EM, but also some EM assets have benefitted from rotation away from the U.S. 
  • We see scope for a 2 wave of U.S. equity and Japanese Yen (JPY) correction,  as September rate cut is approaching.
  • Brazil and Mexico yield risk premia are high, though event risk surrounds Mexico with November’s U.S. presidential election . Some rotation could be seen into EM equities.

Norway Policy Rate 4.5% (consensus 4.5%) in Aug-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Norges Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, consistent with expectations, as inflation trends lower but remains above target, and economic growth is subdued.
  • This decision was influenced by a weaker krone, lower-than-projected inflation, and slightly higher unemployment, signalling the need for a cautious approach to monetary policy.
  • The central bank is prepared to adjust the policy rate depending on future inflation trends, economic developments, and global factors, with the policy rate likely remaining at 4.5% for some time ahead.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

China Data: Weak Performance in July and into 2025

By Alex Ng

  • Overall, the July data is consistent with our forecast of a weaker H2 and we still look for 4.7% GDP growth for 2024.
  • The data is also consistent with our forecast of 4.0% in 2025 GDP growth. Consumption behavior could stall further and cause more of a drag than we anticipate.
  • We now see a 30% probability that 2025 growth could be below 4%.

China Data:

By Alex Ng

  • Overall, the July data is consistent with our forecast of a weaker H2 and we still look for 4.7% GDP growth for 2024. 
  • The data is also consistent with our forecast of 4.0% in 2025 GDP growth. Consumption behavior could stall further and cause more of a drag than we anticipate.
  • We now see a 30% probability that 2025 growth could be below 4%.  

Philippines Policy Rate 6.25% (consensus 6.5%) in Aug-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The BSP’s decision to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% defied consensus expectations. This strategic shift towards a less restrictive monetary policy responds to an improved inflation outlook.
  • Domestic demand remains solid, and the economic environment is favourable, with strong GDP growth and declining unemployment.
  • Future policy decisions will focus on balancing inflation risks with economic growth, with the BSP remaining vigilant and ready to adjust its stance based on evolving macroeconomic indicators.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus
  • Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following
  • Warren Buffett Invests in Ulta Beauty – Positive Impact on CJ Corp?
  • Aarti Industries Q1 FY2025 Update
  • Sea Ltd (SE US) – Take Rate Tiger
  • Freee 4Q: Significant Decline in Losses; Soon to Turn Profitable
  • Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps
  • 2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- FY24 Result Tops Guidance; Positive Outlook
  • Istyle: Mid-Term Success Could Drive 200% Share Price Surge
  • [Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite


Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus

By Andrew Jackson

  • 7747 Asahi Intec announced FY06/25 OP guidance of Y25.2bn, close to street expectations, pointing to substantial upside. GPM guidance has increased and continuation of strong 4Q YoY sales is expected.
  • Seven days of short interest outstanding could lead to a short squeeze; Earnings briefing tomorrow reinforcing these trends should be a further catalyst for upside.
  • With short interest now low and limited potential for further gains after the recent rebound, 7733 Olympus appears to be losing momentum, especially with China sales continuing to flag.

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.
  • However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.
  • We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.

Warren Buffett Invests in Ulta Beauty – Positive Impact on CJ Corp?

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss how Warren Buffett’s recent investment in Ulta Beauty is likely to have a positive impact on CJ Corp’s valuation. 
  • CJ Olive Young (largest shareholder is CJ Corp) is the dominant health & beauty cosmetics chain in Korea. CJ Olive Young has a similar business model to Ulta Beauty.
  • Our NAV analysis suggests an implied market cap of 4.7 trillion won or implied price of 160,977 won per share for CJ Corp, representing a 38% upside from current levels.

Aarti Industries Q1 FY2025 Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • New CEO Suyog appointed in Q1 FY2025, who held leadership roles at Reliance Industries (RIL IN) and McKinsey & Company.
  • Aarti Industries (ARTO IN) reported 28% revenue growth, 52% EBITDA growth and 95% PAT growth on YoY basis.
  • Company become cautious about its FY25 EBITDA guidance of Rs. 1,450-1,700 crore, given global headwinds such as the Red Sea crisis and Chinese dumping.

Sea Ltd (SE US) – Take Rate Tiger

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sea Ltd‘s 2Q2024 results reflected both the success of its bold strategies to drive growth in areas such as live-streaming whilst at the same time increasing take rates and profitability.
  • Its core focus on competitive pricing, content, logistics, and especially advertising will help to drive growth, retention, and profitability as unit economics improve, whilst it rolls out its lending products.
  • Competitive intensity has stabilised which should allow for take rates to rise higher, whilst Shopee is well positioned to further increase its lead. Valuations look reasonable given Sea Ltd’s profitable status.

Freee 4Q: Significant Decline in Losses; Soon to Turn Profitable

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 4QFY06/2024 and full-year results today. Earnings were in line with guidance, but operating losses have declined significantly beating consensus by a huge margin.
  • The company has issued guidance which calls for a break-even or an adj. OPM of 3% for FY06/2025E suggesting freee’s investments in marketing and client acquisition have finally paid off.
  • Freee’s share price has moved up slightly during the last few weeks, but still trading at a discount to its own multiples and at a steep discount to Money Forward.

Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

By Victor Galliano

  • Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
  • UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability 
  • Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low

2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- FY24 Result Tops Guidance; Positive Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported strong FY24 result, with all key parameters beating estimates. FY24 revenue exceeds ¥100B, a significant milestone of the mid-term management plan.
  • For FY25, Asahi Intecc has guided for revenue of ¥117B (up 9% YoY), operating profit of ¥25B (up 14% YoY), and net profit of ¥19B (up 19% YoY).
  • Growth will be driven by increase in overseas revenue in medical division despite the impact of stronger yen. Positive environment and strong demand enhance conviction on the long-term growth prospect.

Istyle: Mid-Term Success Could Drive 200% Share Price Surge

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Istyle Inc (3660 JP)’s share price surged 17% after strong FQ4 results, surpassing expectations and signaling a potential turnaround.
  • Despite past challenges, iStyle’s ambitious mid-term plan promises increased monetization and stronger growth ahead.
  • With mid-term revenue and profit far exceeding expectations, istyle’s future looks brighter, with it’s share price potentially rising by more than 200%.

[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

By Suhas Reddy

  • Aramco’s Q2 operating revenue grew 5.7% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Meanwhile, net profit fell by 3.4% YoY but its EPS edged past estimates by 0.8%.
  • Total hydrocarbon production fell 8.9% YoY to 12.3 mboepd while crude oil realisations rose 8.8% YoY.
  • In Q2, Aramco declared dividends totalling USD 31.1 billion, despite an 18.1% YoY decline in free cash flow to USD 19 billion.

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Daily Brief Australia: Namoi Cotton Co Operative, Amaero International Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Louis Dreyfus Has This Stitched Up
  • Amaero International Ltd – Capex programme extended, guidance for FY26 break even


Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Louis Dreyfus Has This Stitched Up

By David Blennerhassett

  • Since Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) first announced a A$0.51/share Offer, by way of a Scheme, on the 28 November 2023, and Olam Agri countered, there have been significant developments. 
  • Both suitors have now tabled off-market Offers (A$0.67/share from LDC, and A$0.70/share from Olam Agri). Both Offers are open for tendering. Both have extended their closing dates numerous times.
  • And both suitors have also faced ACCC scrutiny. As of today, only LDC, currently holding a 20.2% stake in Namoi, is in the clear.

Amaero International Ltd – Capex programme extended, guidance for FY26 break even

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research has published an update report on advanced materials manufacturing group Amaero International (ASX:3DA) following its market update in which it guided to FY26 break-even and provided more granularity on its FY24 to FY26 capital expenditure progrramme.
  • Amaero has provided an update to shareholders including changed guidance on when it expects to reach EBITDA break-even (six months later), a revised capex schedule and the milestones it expects to pass over the next six-to-12 months (same in quantum but timing changes).
  • The company emphasised that the completion of C103 qualification by Amaero’s offtake counterparty (whom we believe is US defence giant Castheon) is the single most significant milestone in the company’s history.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Kangwon Land, CJ Corp, Hankook Tire & Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Examining the September Reshuffle of the KOSPI Size Index Series
  • Warren Buffett Invests in Ulta Beauty – Positive Impact on CJ Corp?
  • Hankook Tire & Technology: M&A of Hanon System Falling Apart?


Examining the September Reshuffle of the KOSPI Size Index Series

By Sanghyun Park

  • The September KOSPI Size Index rebalancing could bring back the typical price impacts seen over the past decade, unlike the March rebalancing.
  • The previous rebalancing had anomalies due to newly listed stocks in LARGE and a stronger downward trend in LARGE-to-MID transitions, disrupting the expected price impact.
  • For September’s rebalancing, fewer distortions are expected compared to March. The NPS Mid to Small Cap fund, a key influence, shows no significant changes in benchmark or AUM.

Warren Buffett Invests in Ulta Beauty – Positive Impact on CJ Corp?

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss how Warren Buffett’s recent investment in Ulta Beauty is likely to have a positive impact on CJ Corp’s valuation. 
  • CJ Olive Young (largest shareholder is CJ Corp) is the dominant health & beauty cosmetics chain in Korea. CJ Olive Young has a similar business model to Ulta Beauty.
  • Our NAV analysis suggests an implied market cap of 4.7 trillion won or implied price of 160,977 won per share for CJ Corp, representing a 38% upside from current levels.

Hankook Tire & Technology: M&A of Hanon System Falling Apart?

By Douglas Kim

  • There are increasing signs that Hankook Tire & Technology’s M&A of Hanon Systems could be falling apart. 
  • The deadline for signing the main M&A contract to purchase a 25% stake in Hanon Systems has been postponed indefinitely.
  • New contingent liabilities at Hanon Systems have been uncovered during the 10 week due diligence process of Hanon Systems by Hankook T&T.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Sea , Yanlord Land, Comfortdelgro Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd (SE US) – Take Rate Tiger
  • Yanlord Land – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Comfortdelgro (CD): 1H Decent Result


Sea Ltd (SE US) – Take Rate Tiger

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sea Ltd‘s 2Q2024 results reflected both the success of its bold strategies to drive growth in areas such as live-streaming whilst at the same time increasing take rates and profitability.
  • Its core focus on competitive pricing, content, logistics, and especially advertising will help to drive growth, retention, and profitability as unit economics improve, whilst it rolls out its lending products.
  • Competitive intensity has stabilised which should allow for take rates to rise higher, whilst Shopee is well positioned to further increase its lead. Valuations look reasonable given Sea Ltd’s profitable status.

Yanlord Land – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Yanlord Land’s H1/24 results were acceptable in our view. The company reported robust top-line growth, albeit margins weakened amid the difficult operating environment. Positively, Yanlord continued to reduce debt and maintain stable leverage. In addition, the company has successfully refinanced its borrowings using cheaper onshore secured debt, which has helped to improve interest costs.

That said, Yanlord’s headroom to raise future secured debt has been reduced, as the bulk of its investment properties has already been pledged. Still, the company might be able to upsize its existing secured loans with higher LTV, or issue loans backed against new assets. Meanwhile, Yanlord continues to face sales pressure and a shrinking land bank in the absence of new land acquisitions.


Comfortdelgro (CD): 1H Decent Result

By Henry Soediarko

  • 1H 24 result was not disappointing, as OPM improved thanks to a few supportive measures that boosted revenue. 
  • Taxi operating profit margin has improved since 2H 23 and is still producing a higher number than last year, thanks to the ZIG app service charge. 
  • Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) is now trading at 1.2x PBR against 2x PBR 5 years ago pre COVID. 

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Daily Brief United States: Saudi Aramco, Arbitrum, Biora Therapeutics , elf Beauty Inc, Ensysce Biosciences , Expion360 , Imunon , Longeveron , Aethlon Medical , Teton Advisors and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • [Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite
  • Crypto Moves #39 – The Token Unlocking Saga Is (Mostly) a One-Way Down Game
  • BIOR: Second Quarter Results
  • elf Beauty Inc – STCB: 2Q Review: Adding Costco, Planning for the Future, Reiterate Buy
  • ENSC: 2Q Release Sets Stage for Important Trials
  • XPON: Updating our estimates to reflect the higher share count post-offering and second-quarter results. Adjusting target to 0.25/share to reflect lower energy storage market valuations.
  • IMNN: Positive Results for OVATION 2 Trial Supports Advancing IMNN-001 Into Phase 3 Study
  • LGVN: Financial Update Highlights Successes
  • Upcoming potential milestones include the submission to the Ethics Committees at a third site in Australia and one in India
  • Teton Advisors Inc (TETAA) – Thursday, May 16, 2024


[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

By Suhas Reddy

  • Aramco’s Q2 operating revenue grew 5.7% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Meanwhile, net profit fell by 3.4% YoY but its EPS edged past estimates by 0.8%.
  • Total hydrocarbon production fell 8.9% YoY to 12.3 mboepd while crude oil realisations rose 8.8% YoY.
  • In Q2, Aramco declared dividends totalling USD 31.1 billion, despite an 18.1% YoY decline in free cash flow to USD 19 billion.

Crypto Moves #39 – The Token Unlocking Saga Is (Mostly) a One-Way Down Game

By Mads Eberhardt

  • In recent years, we have seen a surge in new crypto projects launching with billion-dollar market capitalizations right from the start.
  • This trend includes projects like Aptos, Sui, Celestia, and others.
  • If you examine the top 100 cryptocurrencies, it is evident that the list increasingly comprises recently launched, highly hyped cryptocurrencies that boast valuations that would make many Nasdaq-listed companies envious.

BIOR: Second Quarter Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Biora is a drug-device company developing smart pills for GI diseases and enabling oral delivery of biologics.
  • Its pipeline features two assets: NaviCap, for targeted drug delivery in GI diseases & BioJet, for oral delivery of biologics.
  • NaviCap’s BT-600 trial has completed the SAD & MAD cohorts & should report results in June.

elf Beauty Inc – STCB: 2Q Review: Adding Costco, Planning for the Future, Reiterate Buy

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $0.25 price target, but reducing our projections after Starco Brands posted a lower than expected 2Q24 and did not provide 2024 guidance, as management continues to pivot to multiple new and expanded retailer relationships for virtually all their brands, including the addition of Costco as a key new partner.
  • We believe, beginning in 3Q24, Starco will take their stable of brands to a new level in terms of door penetration which, when combined with an aggressive focus on adding new categories, will position the company for strong top line and Adjusted EBITDA expansion for 2025 and beyond.
  • As such, we continue to view the future of Starco as strong, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $0.25 price target for STCB.

ENSC: 2Q Release Sets Stage for Important Trials

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Ensysce Biosciences is committed to finding a solution to the opioid crisis plaguing the US and other developed countries around the world.
  • Through its proprietary TAAP technology Ensysce is in the process of receiving approval for an abuse-resistant yet still pain-relieving opioid.
  • The company released its quarterly report for 2Q2024, which again shows the great progress the company is making in moving toward its goal of providing a much-needed opioid alternative, with critical clinical trials set to start.

XPON: Updating our estimates to reflect the higher share count post-offering and second-quarter results. Adjusting target to 0.25/share to reflect lower energy storage market valuations.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Expion360 released full results for the second quarter which had been prereleased in the registration statement related to the recent $10 million financing and were just slightly below our expectations.
  • The company provided no formal guidance for 2024 and 2025 but the new home energy storage business will have to be wildly successful to avoid further (potentially significant) dilution to existing shareholders.
  • As we have seen in the past Expion360’s shares frequently trade independent of the fundamentals of the business.

IMNN: Positive Results for OVATION 2 Trial Supports Advancing IMNN-001 Into Phase 3 Study

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On July 30, 2024, Imunon, Inc. (IMNN) announced positive topline results for the Phase 2 OVATION 2 Trial of IMNN-001 in patients with advanced ovarian cancer.
  • The company reported an 11.1 month increase in median overall survival (OS) compared with standard-of-care alone in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.74, which indicates a 35% improvement in survival.
  • For the 40% of trial participants treated with a PARP inhibitor, the HR dropped to 0.41, with a median OS in the IMNN-001 treatment arm that had not yet been reached at the time of database lock, compared with a median OS of 37.1 months in the standard-of-care arm.

LGVN: Financial Update Highlights Successes

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Longeveron is focusing on using its primary treatment, Lomecel-B, to fight a rare pediatric heart birth defect that devastates families but continues to receive good FDA news regarding its treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease.
  • The company released its 2Q2024 earnings and highlighted advances made with its signature treatment-Lomecel-B.
  • The treatment has made significant progress and received multiple FDA designation for both Alzheimer’s Disease and the devastating HLHS.

Upcoming potential milestones include the submission to the Ethics Committees at a third site in Australia and one in India

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Upcoming potential milestones include the submission to the Ethics Committees at a third site in Australia and one in India, possible approval from one or both as early as FY25 2Q or 3Q and the launch of the patient enrollment process at those venues following Aethlon’s site visits.
  • The company expects to begin the patient enrollment process in October 2024.
  • We would expect AEMD to announce that the first patient has been treated possibly by year-end 2024 or early 2025.

Teton Advisors Inc (TETAA) – Thursday, May 16, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Majority owned by Mario Gabelli, public small cap value asset manager
  • Market cap primarily cash, trading at depressed earnings
  • Potential “free option” on small/microcap rebound or merger with GAMCO, stable AUM, earned $1.00 in cash earnings in 2023

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief China: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Alibaba Group Holding , Midea Group Co Ltd A, KE Holdings , Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls
  • TCM (570 HK): A Spoonful Of Sugar …
  • Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following
  • Midea Group (000333 CH): Index Implications at US$3bn Issue Size
  • [KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Market Share Gain Is the Main Catalyst
  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update reinforces the bull case. The gross spread has remained uncomfortably high since falling on no news on 26 June. 
  • The monthly update will relieve the bulls, as the consortium has finally made the regulatory submissions. The update stresses that the filing delay is due to an unwieldy consortium. 
  • Potential stumbling blocks remain, which should not be an issue. Nevertheless, the risk (17.7% downside to the undisturbed price)/reward (21.4% gross spread) remains attractive. 

TCM (570 HK): A Spoonful Of Sugar …

By David Blennerhassett

  • A 14.8% gain month-to-date, including this past Monday’s 6.5% pop – you just knew something positive was taking place behind closed doors. And leaking its way into the public.   
  • So it was no real surprise to read in the latest monthly update announcement on the HKEx that various regulatory approvals are almost, but not quite, satisfied.
  • The wording in the announcement strikes a positive tone. Even remaining conservative on the timeline, this could be wrapped up before year-end. 

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.
  • However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.
  • We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.

Midea Group (000333 CH): Index Implications at US$3bn Issue Size

By Brian Freitas

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) has got approval to list on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports are that the listing could be up to US$3bn.
  • That issue size is around half of the maximum that the company can issue. But it would still need cornerstone investors and a nice discount on the H-shares.
  • The stock will still get included in some indices even with the scaled down size, and inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect is a given.

[KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$24) TP Change]: Market Share Gain Is the Main Catalyst

By Eric Wen

  • KE Holdings (BEKE) reported C2Q24 revenue 12%/9% higher than our estimates/consensus, and non-GAAP NI 19%/49% higher than our estimates/consensus, due to market share gain and take rate hike.
  • We particularly like its business scalability, as its agent efficiency kept stable despite growing connected agents.
  • We maintain the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$24 to reflect the better growth outlook from market share gains.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, and CMB International.
  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (Zenergy from hereon) is an EV and energy storage system (ESS) battery manufacturer in China. 
  • It provides integrated battery solutions, encompassing battery cells, modules, packs, racks, and battery management systems dedicated to large-scale applications of electrochemical products to interconnect omni-scenarios of land, sea and air.

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Daily Brief Japan: Asahi Intecc, Freee KK, Istyle Inc, Japan Airport Terminal Co, Evolable Asia, MarketEnterprise Co Ltd, Medpeer Inc, Mrt Inc/Jp, Pigeon Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus
  • Freee 4Q: Significant Decline in Losses; Soon to Turn Profitable
  • Istyle: Mid-Term Success Could Drive 200% Share Price Surge
  • 2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- FY24 Result Tops Guidance; Positive Outlook
  • Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JT): Share Price Correction Overdone, Now a Value BUY
  • Evolable Asia (6191 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update
  • MarketEnterprise Co Ltd (3135 JP): Full-year FY06/24 flash update
  • Medpeer Inc (6095 JP): Q3 FY09/24 Flash Update, Revision of Full-Year FY09/24 Earnings Forecast
  • Mrt Inc/Jp (6034 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
  • Pigeon Corp (7956 JP): Q2 FY12/24 flash update


Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus

By Andrew Jackson

  • 7747 Asahi Intec announced FY06/25 OP guidance of Y25.2bn, close to street expectations, pointing to substantial upside. GPM guidance has increased and continuation of strong 4Q YoY sales is expected.
  • Seven days of short interest outstanding could lead to a short squeeze; Earnings briefing tomorrow reinforcing these trends should be a further catalyst for upside.
  • With short interest now low and limited potential for further gains after the recent rebound, 7733 Olympus appears to be losing momentum, especially with China sales continuing to flag.

Freee 4Q: Significant Decline in Losses; Soon to Turn Profitable

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 4QFY06/2024 and full-year results today. Earnings were in line with guidance, but operating losses have declined significantly beating consensus by a huge margin.
  • The company has issued guidance which calls for a break-even or an adj. OPM of 3% for FY06/2025E suggesting freee’s investments in marketing and client acquisition have finally paid off.
  • Freee’s share price has moved up slightly during the last few weeks, but still trading at a discount to its own multiples and at a steep discount to Money Forward.

Istyle: Mid-Term Success Could Drive 200% Share Price Surge

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Istyle Inc (3660 JP)’s share price surged 17% after strong FQ4 results, surpassing expectations and signaling a potential turnaround.
  • Despite past challenges, iStyle’s ambitious mid-term plan promises increased monetization and stronger growth ahead.
  • With mid-term revenue and profit far exceeding expectations, istyle’s future looks brighter, with it’s share price potentially rising by more than 200%.

2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- FY24 Result Tops Guidance; Positive Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported strong FY24 result, with all key parameters beating estimates. FY24 revenue exceeds ¥100B, a significant milestone of the mid-term management plan.
  • For FY25, Asahi Intecc has guided for revenue of ¥117B (up 9% YoY), operating profit of ¥25B (up 14% YoY), and net profit of ¥19B (up 19% YoY).
  • Growth will be driven by increase in overseas revenue in medical division despite the impact of stronger yen. Positive environment and strong demand enhance conviction on the long-term growth prospect.

Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JT): Share Price Correction Overdone, Now a Value BUY

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP) (JAT) share price was deeply affected by Japan Black Monday rout, and is starting to stage a recovery. 
  • JAT is now looking cheap against other global airports and also against its own history based on P/E, EV/EBITDA, and P/BV.
  • Our fair value is JPY6,050 derived from global airport peers average 2025 EV/EBITDA of 11.6x, this implies an UPSIDE of 21%. Despite the share price run-up, still good upside opportunity.   

Evolable Asia (6191 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Volume handled increased by 20.2% YoY to JPY87.1bn, with operating revenue up 10.3% YoY to JPY18.5bn.
  • Gross profit forecasts for Q3 FY09/24 are JPY1.2bn for July, JPY1.0bn for August, and JPY970mn for September.
  • Operating profit for Q3 FY09/24 was JPY2.7bn, maintaining the same level as FY09/23 while executing growth investments.

MarketEnterprise Co Ltd (3135 JP): Full-year FY06/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue reached JPY19.0bn (+24.6% YoY), with operating profit at JPY229mn (+215.7% YoY), and recurring profit at JPY40mn (-85.5% YoY).
  • Second-hand Online business revenue was JPY11.0bn (+31.4% YoY), with operating profit at JPY555mn (+68.5% YoY) and OPM at 5.0%.
  • Mobile & Telecommunications business revenue was JPY7.4bn (+19.2% YoY), with operating profit at JPY456mn (+0.5% YoY) and OPM at 6.2%.

Medpeer Inc (6095 JP): Q3 FY09/24 Flash Update, Revision of Full-Year FY09/24 Earnings Forecast

By Shared Research

  • Sales were JPY11.4bn (+7.1% YoY), EBITDA JPY1.5bn (+10.3% YoY), operating profit JPY1.0bn (+24.7% YoY), net income JPY429mn (+5.0% YoY).
  • Revised FY09/24 forecast: Sales JPY14.6bn, EBITDA JPY1.8bn, operating profit JPY1.2bn, recurring profit JPY1.1bn, net income JPY1.4bn.
  • Segment performance: Collective Intelligence Platform sales JPY9.3bn (+8.5% YoY), Medical Institution Support sales JPY377mn (+2.6% YoY), Preventative Healthcare sales JPY1.7bn (+1.4% YoY).

Mrt Inc/Jp (6034 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • 1H FY12/24 revenue was JPY2.2bn (-31.4% YoY), operating profit JPY97mn (-87.9% YoY), net income JPY32mn (-93.8% YoY).
  • Q1 FY12/24 revenue was JPY937mn (-46.9% YoY) with an operating loss of JPY103mn; Q2 revenue increased to JPY1.3bn (-12.9% YoY).
  • Medical Personnel Services revenue was JPY1.7bn (-4.8% YoY), Other Services revenue was JPY575mn (-61.9% YoY).

Pigeon Corp (7956 JP): Q2 FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased 6.9% YoY, with Japan segment sales declining and growth in China, Singapore, and Lansinoh segments.
  • Operating profit decreased 10.6% YoY, with increases in Singapore and Lansinoh segments but declines in Japan and China segments.
  • Net income attributable to owners fell 21.7% YoY due to a suspicious transaction in China, resulting in a JPY392mn loss.

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Daily Brief India: Aarti Industries, Bank Of Baroda, ACME Solar Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Aarti Industries Q1 FY2025 Update
  • Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps
  • ACME Solar Holdings – Strong Sector Tailwinds but Need to Keep an Eye on Profitability


Aarti Industries Q1 FY2025 Update

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • New CEO Suyog appointed in Q1 FY2025, who held leadership roles at Reliance Industries (RIL IN) and McKinsey & Company.
  • Aarti Industries (ARTO IN) reported 28% revenue growth, 52% EBITDA growth and 95% PAT growth on YoY basis.
  • Company become cautious about its FY25 EBITDA guidance of Rs. 1,450-1,700 crore, given global headwinds such as the Red Sea crisis and Chinese dumping.

Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

By Victor Galliano

  • Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
  • UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability 
  • Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low

ACME Solar Holdings – Strong Sector Tailwinds but Need to Keep an Eye on Profitability

By Ethan Aw

  • ACME Solar Holdings (1700918D IN) is looking to raise US$360m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • ACME Solar (ACME) is a renewable energy firm with a portfolio of solar, wind, hybrid and firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) projects.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

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