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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 28
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Roland DG Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Tencent, Xiaomi Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma
  • Memory Monitor: What SK Hynix Sees For PC and Server Markets Ahead; TSMC’s Strength Vs. Samsung
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying on Banks/Energy Telco SOEs. Again.
  • [Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation

Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma

By Arun George

  • Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) has re-recommended Taiyo’s revised offer of JPY5,370, which is 6.7% higher than its previous JPY5,035 offer and 3.3% higher than Brother Industries (6448 JP)’s JPY5,200 offer.
  • The Board articulates a compelling case on Brother’s offer dis-synergies, which will help swing some shareholder opinion towards Taiyo (irrespective of the price). 
  • Brother could bump, but it would not address the issue of satisfying the condition precedent (non-completion of Taiyo offer) and securing the Board’s recommendation.  

Memory Monitor: What SK Hynix Sees For PC and Server Markets Ahead; TSMC’s Strength Vs. Samsung

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • SK Reports Massive Margin Rebound; Nanya Tech’s Financial Performance Appears Relatively Weak in Perspective
  • AI Applications Now Translating Into Rising Solid-State Memory (SSD) Demand
  • SK Povided Positive Color for Taiwan PC Names; New TSMC Collaboration Highlights TSMC Strength vs. Samsung

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying on Banks/Energy Telco SOEs. Again.

By Travis Lundy

  • A shares were up small on the week, largely due to a big rally on Friday (led by record Northbound buying). HK Stocks had a HUGE week. 
  • Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK10.3bn. Net buys every day and now 20 days straight, but buying was foreign-led.
  • Little market news. More geopolitical news. Big SOE bank H-shares see relentless buying. HSTECH +13.4%, HSI +8.8%, HSCEI +9.1%.

[Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$20) Rating Change]: Xiaomi EV Came at the Right Time of Consolidation

By Eric Wen

  • Performance of SU7 so far, margin of EV biz and globalization potential prompted us to take another look at Xiaomi and we like what we saw;
  • Xiaomi surprised during the Investor Day by guiding SU7 gross margin of 5-10%. Delivery guidance also surprised to ship 100k units in 2024. 
  • We raise EV profitability estimates on margin guidance and expect market share to expand as it expands to SUVs.

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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Keisei Electric Railway Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • A Country Without Shareholder Rights (주주 권리가 없는 나라) – A Book Review
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

A Country Without Shareholder Rights (주주 권리가 없는 나라) – A Book Review

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight is a book review of 주주 권리가 없는 나라 (A Country Without Shareholder Rights), which is one of the best books on the corporate governance in Korea.
  • There are so much wisdom that are included in this book. The author really goes into details about numerous corporate governance problems in Korea and ways to fix them.
  • This book was published in January 2024 and it was written by a famous Korean retail investor called Park Young-Ok.

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

By David Blennerhassett

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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Financials: China Life Insurance Co H, China Merchants Bank A, Bank Central Asia, Nikkei 225 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024):  Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024): Big NB Buy Friday
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Credentials Remain Intact
  • EQD | Nikkei’s Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Apr 2024):  Best Week in a LONG Time for Hs Vs As – Time To Get Long H/A

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.
  • HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Apr 2024): Big NB Buy Friday

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 25+bn of A-shares on low gross volume but a huge Friday playing catchup to a massive up-week in HK shares. 
  • H outperformed As and it feels like the massive day Friday was just to play reversion on underperformance vs HK shares.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Credentials Remain Intact

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) surprised with a strong set of 1Q2024 numbers driven by unseasonably strong loan growth coupled with continuing growth in CASA, helping to underpin NIMs. 
  • Loan growth was driven by corporate loans with investment loans outpacing working capital loans together with SME loans and consumer loans, especially mortgages, autos, and personal loans. 
  • Digital banking initiatives drove customer numbers and transactions, whilst improving operating efficiencies. Credit costs continue to come down with falling loans at risk. Valuations remain high but credentials remain intact. 

EQD | Nikkei’s Downtrend Could Continue in May (But the Bottom Is Near)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is closing the month of April in negative territory, first month down after 3 months up.
  • Our seasonal model indicates that May could also close down, but the index should find strong support in the 37770-36750 price area.
  • The month of May is a coin flip: the index could close up or down, caution is advised.

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Apr 28
0

Daily Brief Consumer: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Few Companies Have Started to Move Yet, but Can They Raise R & D Investment to Regain Pricing Power?

Few Companies Have Started to Move Yet, but Can They Raise R & D Investment to Regain Pricing Power?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Asset Turnover and ROA deteriorated as a result of accumulating cash on hand rather than investing. There was also insufficient R&D to create products that could have stronger pricing power.
  • Conditions are ripe for investment expansion, as demand for equipment replacement is rising due to long-standing CapEx restraints, and there is no need to accumulate more cash.
  • Companies are now in the stage of raising return on capital to increase reinvested cash flow from the stage of temporarily increasing earnings through price pass-through.

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Value-Up Guidelines Release Date Is Set for May 2nd

Korea Value-Up Guidelines Release Date Is Set for May 2nd

By Sanghyun Park

  • Chosun reports Korean financial authorities advance Value-up plan guidelines to May 2nd, citing momentum decline post-election. Chosun’s credibility enhances report validity.
  • Companies will commence Value-up-related disclosures in alignment with the guidelines within May. A dedicated Value-up website is set to launch in May.
  • The May 2nd guideline release date is crucial for Value-up momentum trading. Anticipate heightened volatility in Value-up stocks approaching this date.

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief China: Eagle Nice (Intl) Hldgs, ByteDance, AGBA Group Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asian Dividend Gems: Eagle Nice International Holdings
  • TikTok Shop Faces Regulatory Hurdles in Bid to Become No. 1 in Vietnam, Expert Says
  • AGBA – A transformational deal

Asian Dividend Gems: Eagle Nice International Holdings

By Douglas Kim

  • Eagle Nice International Holdings’ dividend yield averaged 9.2% from FY 2019 to FY 2023. Its annual dividend payout averaged 72.2% in the same period.
  • Eagle Nice (Intl) Hldgs is mainly engaged in the design and manufacture of sportswear for adults and children on an OEM basis. Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings is the largest shareholder.
  • Eagle Nice Holdings also has attractive valuations and consistent growth in sales and profits. 

TikTok Shop Faces Regulatory Hurdles in Bid to Become No. 1 in Vietnam, Expert Says

By Caixin Global

  • Regulatory risks could derail TikTok’s drive to become Vietnam’s No. 1 online marketplace, an industry expert said.

  • The ByteDance-owned short-video app launched TikTok Shop in Vietnam in April 2022 as part of its broader ambition to control 35% of Southeast Asia’s e-commerce market.

  • Since then, it has surpassed Alibaba-backed Lazada to become Vietnam’s second-largest online marketplace by gross merchandise volume — TikTok’s vendors sold about $1.3 billion worth of goods in the past six months, according to local media which cited data from local analytics firm Metric. Now, only Singapore-based Shopee stands between TikTok and the top spot.

AGBA – A transformational deal

By Edison Investment Research

On 18 April, AGBA announced a surprise deal to acquire 100% of Triller Corp, a global AI-driven social video platform, in an all-stock transaction. Triller is privately-owned but has been independently valued at US$3.2bn. AGBA’s management is using a US$4bn valuation for the combined entity, in which AGBA shareholders will own 20% and Triller shareholders 80%. Triller recorded FY23 revenues of US$45m on 450m user accounts and 2.2m creators but is loss-making. In FY23, AGBA reported revenues of US$54m and 400,000+ clients. The combined group expects synergies from expanding and marketing to Triller’s users and utilizing Triller’s AI, natural language processing (NLP) technology and digital marketing capabilities to drive growth in its Asian investment advisory business and fintech investments.

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Alphabet, ATN International, Ethereum, Wex Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel. Just Check Back In Again In 2026
  • Alphabet 1Q’24 Update
  • ATNI: Show Me Story of Free Cash Flow
  • Crypto Moves #25 – Ethereum Restaking: Potential is Not Risk-Free
  • Wex Inc (WEX) – Friday, Jan 26, 2024

Intel. Just Check Back In Again In 2026

By William Keating

  • Q124 revenue was $12.7 billion, down 17.5% QoQ but up 9% YoY.
  • Q224 revenue forecast of just $13 billion & vague promise of full year YoY growth disappoints
  • Capacity constraints on wafer level assembly limited Meteor Lake shipments. So much for a maniacal focus on execution.

Alphabet 1Q’24 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Despite following Big Tech closely for the last 5 years, this sentence from today’s call still somewhat surprised me!
  • The scale and the height of success of Google truly boggles my mind.
  • Over the last year or so, Google has had its fair share of skeptics, including yours truly. 

ATNI: Show Me Story of Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATNI is trading at approximately 35 percent discount to tangible book value after reporting first quarter results with negative free cash flow and reducing adjusted EBITDA guidance by 4.4 percent.
  • ATNI experienced delays in securing government contracts in the quarter and slower process in growing commercial broadband accounts.
  • ATNI is forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $190 million to $200 million leading to calculation of positive free cash flow. 

Crypto Moves #25 – Ethereum Restaking: Potential is Not Risk-Free

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Every day, 32.5 million Ether, valued at more than $100 billion, are used as collateral to verify transactions, propose blocks, and protect the Ethereum blockchain from external attacks by acting as validators.
  • These Ethereum validators consequently hold substantial influence over the network.
  • To manage this influence wielded by Ethereum stakers, the network has the capability to slash validators.

Wex Inc (WEX) – Friday, Jan 26, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • WEX is a payments company trading at a discount to its historical valuation, with a P/E of 12.5x
  • WEX operates in three segments including Mobility and Corporate Payments, with a market cap of $9bn
  • WEX’s growth is driven by share gains, technology add-ons, and price increases, making it an attractive investment opportunity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief India: Ganesh Benzoplast and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Promoter Family Feud and Fund Diversion : A Rare Saga of Governance Issue at Ganesh Benzoplast

Promoter Family Feud and Fund Diversion : A Rare Saga of Governance Issue at Ganesh Benzoplast

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • GBL was touted as a turnaround story as few investors have shown faith by infusing the funds for further expansion
  • In a rare instance, one of the promoter member fraudlently took the loan of 45 crores in the name of the company
  • What lies ahead is the case possible fund diversion and promoter family feud

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief Japan: Roland DG Corp, Fanuc Corp, Astellas Pharma and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiyo Pacific Overbids Brother for Roland DG (6789)
  • Fanuc (6954 JP): Guidance Points Down, but the Market Sees Recovery
  • Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Fx Drives FY24 Revenue; Impairment Loss Dents Profits; Pain to Continue

Taiyo Pacific Overbids Brother for Roland DG (6789)

By Travis Lundy

  • Originally, Brother Industries (6448 JP) wanted to buy Roland DG Corp (6789 JP).  Roland invited others to bid, didn’t tell Brother, then said Taiyo Pacific’s ¥5,035 bid won.
  • That was low. Weeks later, Brother lobbed a ¥5,200 overbid. They are going through the approvals process but it isn’t clear Brother is negotiating.
  • Taiyo has extended and extended and shown up in interviews. Now it has overbid at ¥5,370.

Fanuc (6954 JP): Guidance Points Down, but the Market Sees Recovery

By Scott Foster

  • Fanuc was up 4.7% this past week as the market reacted to a slight uptick in orders and transparently conservative guidance.
  • The book-to-bill ratio remained below 1.0 in 4Q of FY Mar-24, but was up from 3Q, which appears to have been the low point in the cycle.
  • Inflation and ongoing inventory adjustments indicate a slow recovery, but demand for automation  from traditional markets and new opportunities in aerospace and other industries should support long-term growth.

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Fx Drives FY24 Revenue; Impairment Loss Dents Profits; Pain to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported ¥85B revenue increase in FY24 over FY23, while Fx impacted the revenue positively by ¥96B. In local currency terms, the U.S. revenue declined 5% YoY.
  • FY24 operating and net profit declined 80%+, due to amortization and impairment loss of intangible assets. Astellas is changing accounting policy to smoothen core operating and net profits in FY25.
  • For FY25, Astellas guided for just 3% revenue growth. Core operating profit is expected to decline 10%, while net profit is anticipated to take a bigger hit and decrease 17%.

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Apr 27
0

Most Read: Toyota Industries, Deep Yellow Ltd, Keisei Electric Railway Co, Asahi Intecc, Mimasu Semiconductor Industry, Anglo American, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Eagle Nice (Intl) Hldgs, Roland DG Corp, Engie SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June
  • Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing
  • Japan – Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May
  • 18yrs Later, Shin-Etsu Chem Takes Out Sub Mimasu Semi (8155) – Cheap But Whatchagonnado?
  • BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution
  • Korea Value-Up Guidelines Release Date Is Set for May 2nd
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Eagle Nice International Holdings
  • Taiyo Pacific Overbids Brother for Roland DG (6789)
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: Engie Gets Closer to a US$1.1bn Index Inflow

Denso’s Big Multi-Year Toyota Industries (6201) Selldown

By Travis Lundy

  • We knew this was coming. We did not know HOW it was coming. The news today has to be seen as a bit of a disappointment.
  • Why is it a disappointment? Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is not buying back a big chunk, and there is no offering to oblige new investors to take a look.
  • This is long, slow, leakage on a company which is not overwhelmingly cheap, where it requires good governance to get out well, and even then…

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

  • With three-quarters of the review period complete, there could be a bunch of changes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in June.
  • The Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) / Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) merger could lead to an ad hoc change prior to the implementation of the June rebalance.
  • There will be 1.6-25 days of ADV to buy from passives in the inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.8-11 days of ADV.

Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing

By Travis Lundy

  • Last October, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign (presentation) on well-known “stub trade” Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a stake of about 1.6%. 
  • The proposal? Monetise a decent stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), repurchase shares, and invest for growth. Keisei responded 6-8 weeks ago with a buyback and 1% OLC stake sale.
  • I thought that was time to bail. That was it. But now, Palliser has re-engaged. Today a press release (Japanese/English) and a Letter to the Board.

Japan – Increase in Shorts & Potential Passive Selling in May

By Brian Freitas

  • There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in May.
  • The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of May where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.

18yrs Later, Shin-Etsu Chem Takes Out Sub Mimasu Semi (8155) – Cheap But Whatchagonnado?

By Travis Lundy

  • Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP), owner of a 44% stake in Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), has announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities in Mimasu. 
  • This is not surprising. They bought in 19 years ago, raised to 40+% 18yrs ago, then waited. Finally, we have a deal. But it’s too cheap. 
  • Shin-Etsu starts with ~45%, and crossholders and the chairman get it to 52%. Then they need a bit to get them to 67% but it should be straightforward.

BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

By David Blennerhassett

  • BHP (BHP AU)‘s all-scrip unsolicited Offer for Anglo American (AAL LN), zeroes in on AAL’s copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.
  • The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL’s Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.
  • The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. 

Korea Value-Up Guidelines Release Date Is Set for May 2nd

By Sanghyun Park

  • Chosun reports Korean financial authorities advance Value-up plan guidelines to May 2nd, citing momentum decline post-election. Chosun’s credibility enhances report validity.
  • Companies will commence Value-up-related disclosures in alignment with the guidelines within May. A dedicated Value-up website is set to launch in May.
  • The May 2nd guideline release date is crucial for Value-up momentum trading. Anticipate heightened volatility in Value-up stocks approaching this date.

Asian Dividend Gems: Eagle Nice International Holdings

By Douglas Kim

  • Eagle Nice International Holdings’ dividend yield averaged 9.2% from FY 2019 to FY 2023. Its annual dividend payout averaged 72.2% in the same period.
  • Eagle Nice (Intl) Hldgs is mainly engaged in the design and manufacture of sportswear for adults and children on an OEM basis. Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings is the largest shareholder.
  • Eagle Nice Holdings also has attractive valuations and consistent growth in sales and profits. 

Taiyo Pacific Overbids Brother for Roland DG (6789)

By Travis Lundy

  • Originally, Brother Industries (6448 JP) wanted to buy Roland DG Corp (6789 JP).  Roland invited others to bid, didn’t tell Brother, then said Taiyo Pacific’s ¥5,035 bid won.
  • That was low. Weeks later, Brother lobbed a ¥5,200 overbid. They are going through the approvals process but it isn’t clear Brother is negotiating.
  • Taiyo has extended and extended and shown up in interviews. Now it has overbid at ¥5,370.

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: Engie Gets Closer to a US$1.1bn Index Inflow

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked and followed indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
  • This annual index rebal event usually results in some of the most significant index flow events in Europe every year, typically amounting to billions of dollars of flows.
  • In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2024.

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